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  • Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Hang on.

    Forgive my (rational) paranoia, but....

    What about the tories post-election student loans promise to raise plan 2 repayment threshold to £25k + rising with avg earnings?

    Makes no sense not mentioning it. It was bloody expensive for the chancellor.

    They haven't gone back on it, surely?

    Page 25 of the red book:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/661480/autumn_budget_2017_web.pdf
    Thanks.

    Footnote 4.

    Hammond missed a free kick at an open goal, there.
    Better to have some good news hidden than something nasty. I hope they have not done that again, but that is in the same way that I hope an entire class of Y10s will have done their homework the way I asked them to and all handed it in on time.
  • MaxPB said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    Can we revisit this in 2021/22. No one has suffered anything other than having to read the OBR forecasts.
    Sure we can. Is this the point where Leavers complain that reality-based estimates aren't convenient enough for them?
  • Scott_P said:
    Fair analysis from Ozzy. He was hardly going to hang out the bunting; however he was gracious enough about Phil and the grim position in which he finds himself.

    In the circumstances, Mr Hammond did well to resist the hysterical calls from Tory MPs for a lot more public spending as a panacea to their problems.

    It is baffling that many of the Right now think the best riposte to Mr Corbyn’s Magic Money Tree is to plant a magical forest of their own.

    Instead of this fantasy economics, the Chancellor sensibly stuck to his fiscal rule, even if he lost his margin for error. The Westminster caravan will move on quickly from this Budget.

    As the big downgrade to the growth forecasts show, the economic and political course of the Government is set — and there was nothing Mr Hammond’s bittersweet Budget could do today to shift it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,626
    Diesel only applies to new cars, thank God.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,066

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    Yes, the growth predictions were the killer thing here. Fortunately for Phil, the Brexit press won't want to hear about that, so they're probably major on stamp duty. Phil has covered his backside well enough for now.
    The stamp duty cut could be the kind of housing market intervention that has unintended consequences. If it encourages people with portfolios of properties under £300,000 to put them on the market, we could see a glut of supply triggering a crash.
    And this would be bad because?
    I merely said it would be unintended. ;)
  • DavidL said:

    The growth rates are getting a lot of attention but they are almost certainly nonsense. For a start are we really going to have another 5 years without recession? That will be 15 years from the last recession. Seems a very long cycle.

    We had a 17 year gap between the early 90s recession and 2008 recession.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,820
    edited November 2017
    DavidL said:

    The growth rates are getting a lot of attention but they are almost certainly nonsense. For a start are we really going to have another 5 years without recession? That will be 15 years from the last recession. Seems a very long cycle.

    End of boom and bust? ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591

    IFS agree Hammond has slackened his borrowing requirements

    He can be a little more relaxed about that now that the deficit is under 1.5% of GDP, hence the falling as a share of GDP.
  • So I don’t have to worry about my lunchtime Pasty going up by 20% next week?
  • Mortimer said:


    Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.

    http://www.rnib.org.uk/information-everyday-living-using-technology-phones/mobile-phones

    My wife, who is seriously visually impaired, got the iPhone 5 a few years ago. It transformed her life. Say what you want about Apple and their proprietary software, but when the RNIB just say 'Just buy an iPhone because it's better than anything either WE or Android can ever hope to do' I've got to give them credit.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,615

    I simply don't see how this balances out. I assume there must be something in the paperwork but he seems to be saying we will have more spending, lower GDP and lower debt. Surely those things are mutually exclusive.

    Quite. I'm waiting for some expert analysis of the red book to expose the conjuring trick. The initial impression never survives the forensic analysis.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,820

    MaxPB said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    Can we revisit this in 2021/22. No one has suffered anything other than having to read the OBR forecasts.
    Sure we can. Is this the point where Leavers complain that reality-based estimates aren't convenient enough for them?
    Explain how growth forecasts have gone down, the deficit is falling and government spending is going up? Something there doesn't add up.
  • DavidL said:

    The growth rates are getting a lot of attention but they are almost certainly nonsense. For a start are we really going to have another 5 years without recession? That will be 15 years from the last recession. Seems a very long cycle.

    We had a 17 year gap between the early 90s recession and 2008 recession.
    I think recessions are a bit like forest fires: if the gap between them is too long then they are much more destructive when they happen.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341
    Was there anything about education, apart from the unicorn hunting of more Maths and Computer Science teachers?
  • So I don’t have to worry about my lunchtime Pasty going up by 20% next week?

    Just a 100% tax on pizzas with pineapples on them.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is not an easy speech to make but I still think it is the worst I have seen from the leader of the opposition.

    You have to be bright to be able to figure it out on the fly. Eddie spheroids is probably the one labourite who could.
    Blair was brilliant at it. I agree it played to Ed's diagnostic skills.
    Although Balls never did, did he? It would always have been Miliband who answered a Budget (I think the SCOTE answered the Autumn statement, when we still had those)?
    People have forgotten that Ed Balls was sometimes very poor, notably in his response to the 2012 Autumn Statement when he was thrown off-balance by the fact that the OBR forecasts were not what he was expecting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591

    DavidL said:

    The growth rates are getting a lot of attention but they are almost certainly nonsense. For a start are we really going to have another 5 years without recession? That will be 15 years from the last recession. Seems a very long cycle.

    We had a 17 year gap between the early 90s recession and 2008 recession.
    And a cataclysmic crash at the end of it because the economy was so desperately unbalanced. 15 years is a long time.
  • DavidL said:

    The growth rates are getting a lot of attention but they are almost certainly nonsense. For a start are we really going to have another 5 years without recession? That will be 15 years from the last recession. Seems a very long cycle.

    We had a 17 year gap between the early 90s recession and 2008 recession.
    I think recessions are a bit like forest fires: if the gap between them is too long then they are much more destructive when they happen.
    I've heard a similar analogy, only with earthquakes instead of forest fires.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,261
    DavidL said:

    IFS agree Hammond has slackened his borrowing requirements

    He can be a little more relaxed about that now that the deficit is under 1.5% of GDP, hence the falling as a share of GDP.
    Of course the big Tory criticism of Brown was that he ran a deficit even when the economy was growing and years after the previous recession - ie he failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining. Sadly the Tories are now repeating the same mistake.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 27,213
    edited November 2017

    So I don’t have to worry about my lunchtime Pasty going up by 20% next week?

    Just a 100% tax on pizzas with pineapples on them.
    That would be subject to a challenge in the courts, on the basis that if it's got pineapple on it, it logically cannot be a pizza.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited November 2017

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    I disagree. I reckon austerity has had a larger effect on the flattening of growth than Brexit has. And I'd argue - from a traditional dry-economic viewpoint - that austerity has been entirely necessary.

    Remain predicted enormous upheaval, directly after the vote. It hasn't happened. So ordinary people (like me*), who don't know economic shit from dirty clay, were braced for the worst only to be left pretty bemused by the hyperbole. We were told by the PM, the Chancellor and every economic figure of importance that we would be worse off. But again, it didn't and hasn't happened.

    *I'm as ordinary as you can get. Since June 2016 I'm £4200 a year better off (salary alone). The company I work for is on for a record year (we are printers - a tough trade). My mortgage is lower than it was. Houses are selling like hot-cakes on the estate I live on (in South Wales). And here's the kicker: I'm involved in valleys rugby, proper blue collar stuff. In recent years it's been difficult to help the (pretty poorly educated) young lads into jobs, but this season we found jobs for the six boys who needed work immediately. All of them are in trades, and all are coining it in. Indeed, a young electrician we helped into work a few years back told me recently he's been bringing home £800 a week!

    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,071
    It's interesting that borrowing is much lower this year than forecast in March 2017 and also a bit lower in 2018/19.

    But it's then much higher in 2019/20 onwards.

    Might there be some slack in those later forecasts?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    edited November 2017
    DavidL said:

    The growth rates are getting a lot of attention but they are almost certainly nonsense. For a start are we really going to have another 5 years without recession? That will be 15 years from the last recession. Seems a very long cycle.

    The attention is, or should be, on the relative effect Brexit will have on the economy. It's causing a drag of between 0.5% and 1% a year cumulative, which is predicted to continue. It makes boom times less boom and recessions worse. The Brexit drag is greater than that predicted by the Treasury for its notorious £4300 per household analysis. But they were assuming soft Brexit.
  • So given all the (unfair) criticisms George Osborne CH has received on here about the six week gap between first payment of universal credit, Theresa May and her government have largely left that intact, moving it from five to six weeks.
  • Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    Andrew Neill overstating that every year we fail to make our fiscal targets. We have made them this year for a start. Exceeded them in fact.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 86,762
    edited November 2017

    Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    Ooh, do I fancy a job as a computer science teacher?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,071
    edited November 2017
    DavidL said:

    Andrew Neill overstating that every year we fail to make our fiscal targets. We have made them this year for a start. Exceeded them in fact.

    Exactly my point.

    And 2018/19 will be better than previously forecast.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    edited November 2017

    Scott_P said:
    Fair analysis from Ozzy. He was hardly going to hang out the bunting; however he was gracious enough about Phil and the grim position in which he finds himself.

    In the circumstances, Mr Hammond did well to resist the hysterical calls from Tory MPs for a lot more public spending as a panacea to their problems.

    It is baffling that many of the Right now think the best riposte to Mr Corbyn’s Magic Money Tree is to plant a magical forest of their own.

    Instead of this fantasy economics, the Chancellor sensibly stuck to his fiscal rule, even if he lost his margin for error. The Westminster caravan will move on quickly from this Budget.

    As the big downgrade to the growth forecasts show, the economic and political course of the Government is set — and there was nothing Mr Hammond’s bittersweet Budget could do today to shift it.
    I too think this is fair. Against the background of a damaging Brexit that Hammond never wanted, and the varying political pressures from the opposition and from his own right wingers, first impression is that Hammond had charted the best path he can between the rocks. I was expecting a 'meh' budget (and, once the numbers are crunched, that may well be how it is seen) but there do seem to be a few halfway-bold initiatives to capture the headlines.

    What he hasn't done, but probably should have, is to nudge taxes up to advance the point at which our national debt starts to decline. I reckon he would have if he had been confident that the next election is indeed four years away.
  • DavidL said:

    Andrew Neill overstating that every year we fail to make our fiscal targets. We have made them this year for a start. Exceeded them in fact.

    Andrew Neil is not having a good week of it.
  • DavidL said:

    The growth rates are getting a lot of attention but they are almost certainly nonsense. For a start are we really going to have another 5 years without recession? That will be 15 years from the last recession. Seems a very long cycle.

    We had a 17 year gap between the early 90s recession and 2008 recession.
    I think recessions are a bit like forest fires: if the gap between them is too long then they are much more destructive when they happen.
    I've heard a similar analogy, only with earthquakes instead of forest fires.
    But with forest fires the way you manage the forest can affect the frequency, while I'm not sure there is much that can affect when an earthquake happens.

    I'm also aware that taking analogies too far can lead you badly astray, so I will stop now.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I had never before heard of Mel Stride!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,331
    edited November 2017
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.
    What, even with all the foreigners here??
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    Can we revisit this in 2021/22. No one has suffered anything other than having to read the OBR forecasts.
    Sure we can. Is this the point where Leavers complain that reality-based estimates aren't convenient enough for them?
    Explain how growth forecasts have gone down, the deficit is falling and government spending is going up? Something there doesn't add up.
    The deficit is not falling as fast as previously forecast /
    http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 86,762
    edited November 2017

    DavidL said:

    Andrew Neill overstating that every year we fail to make our fiscal targets. We have made them this year for a start. Exceeded them in fact.

    Andrew Neil is not having a good week of it.
    This is when Andrew Neil had a good week.image
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 26,860
    edited November 2017
    Fenster said:

    I had never before heard of Mel Stride!

    Oxford grad, I believe.
    (Another former Union president.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,066

    DavidL said:

    Andrew Neill overstating that every year we fail to make our fiscal targets. We have made them this year for a start. Exceeded them in fact.

    Andrew Neil is not having a good week of it.
    @johnb78: "Andrew Neil is like the Landesbanken, in that he is publicly owned by everyone in Germany."
  • Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    Ooh, do I fancy a job as a computer science teacher?
    It might involve a bit of a pay cut, but I can recommend the holidays.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905

    Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    Ooh, do I fancy a job as a computer science teacher?
    Exactly. National and local government face the same problem: they have a critical need for good IT people to implement complex technological changes, but most people with the necessary skills can earn way more in the private sector.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    To be fair, the best software engineers I know are not computing graduates. Physicists tend to do rather well, and mathematicians can also be rather good.

    Although as someone pointed out, that might be because there aren't that many jobs in pure physics or maths ...
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,261
    edited November 2017
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    The growth rates are getting a lot of attention but they are almost certainly nonsense. For a start are we really going to have another 5 years without recession? That will be 15 years from the last recession. Seems a very long cycle.

    The attention is, or should be, on the relative effect Brexit will have on the economy. It's causing a drag of between 0.5% and 1% a year cumulative, which is predicted to continue. It makes boom times less boom and recessions worse.
    If we do eventually re-join the EU our poor economic performance relative to the EU in the interim may mean we are a net recipient.... The Join campaign slogan writes itself...
  • So I don’t have to worry about my lunchtime Pasty going up by 20% next week?

    Just a 100% tax on pizzas with pineapples on them.
    Don’t given Bristol’s moamentmers ideas!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    How on earth can Laura say the main beneficiaries of the stamp duty cut is those who own houses when the effect on prices is forecast to be 0.3%? The biggest beneficiaries will be those who buy their first homes and now have more available for the deposit (as well as any repairs, curtains, carpets etc).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Is this the point where Leavers complain that reality-based estimates aren't convenient enough for them?

  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is not an easy speech to make but I still think it is the worst I have seen from the leader of the opposition.

    You have to be bright to be able to figure it out on the fly. Eddie spheroids is probably the one labourite who could.
    Blair was brilliant at it. I agree it played to Ed's diagnostic skills.
    Although Balls never did, did he? It would always have been Miliband who answered a Budget (I think the SCOTE answered the Autumn statement, when we still had those)?
    All those thinking EdM was any cop at this need to remember 2014.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/23/budget-labours-pledges-on-economy-not-communicated-to-voters

    He also got justifiable criticism that year for having given the same speech four years on the trot.
  • DavidL said:

    The growth rates are getting a lot of attention but they are almost certainly nonsense. For a start are we really going to have another 5 years without recession? That will be 15 years from the last recession. Seems a very long cycle.

    Long, but not exceptionally so. It was 16 years from 1992 to 2008.
  • Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    Ooh, do I fancy a job as a computer science teacher?
    It might involve a bit of a pay cut, but I can recommend the holidays.
    I'm in desperate need of a job that doesn't involve a daily commute from Sheffield to Manchester.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.
    What, even with all the foreigners here??
    Yep.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,066
    It seems the FDP may be frit about new elections in Germany and are talking about going back to the table with Merkel.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-fdp/germanys-fdp-does-not-rule-out-renewed-coalition-talks-beer-idUSKBN1DM1H1
  • Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    Ooh, do I fancy a job as a computer science teacher?
    It might involve a bit of a pay cut, but I can recommend the holidays.
    I'm in desperate need of a job that doesn't involve a daily commute from Sheffield to Manchester.
    nick cleggs campaign manager?
  • Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    To be fair, the best software engineers I know are not computing graduates. Physicists tend to do rather well, and mathematicians can also be rather good.

    Although as someone pointed out, that might be because there aren't that many jobs in pure physics or maths ...
    Maths graduates earn more than just about anyone else, and physicists can often tap into the same set of skills. Engineering is what more of my A-level Physics students apply for though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591

    DavidL said:

    Andrew Neill overstating that every year we fail to make our fiscal targets. We have made them this year for a start. Exceeded them in fact.

    Andrew Neil is not having a good week of it.
    Really surprised me that Hammond spent so long talking about measures to improve productivity, measures no doubt fully disclosed to the OBR, they responded by forecasting a reduction in productivity and that isn't being asked about. It suggests their view of the likely success of all those "investments" is pretty sanguine.

    It doesn't surprise me that Corbyn missed it because he is economically illiterate but I would have expected Neil to have picked it up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905

    DavidL said:

    The growth rates are getting a lot of attention but they are almost certainly nonsense. For a start are we really going to have another 5 years without recession? That will be 15 years from the last recession. Seems a very long cycle.

    Long, but not exceptionally so. It was 16 years from 1992 to 2008.
    We'll be (un)lucky to see a debt bubble inflate again over such a long period.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,341
    Fenster said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.
    What, even with all the foreigners here??
    Yep.
    The foreigners round your way are the English, aren’t they?
  • Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    Ooh, do I fancy a job as a computer science teacher?
    It might involve a bit of a pay cut, but I can recommend the holidays.
    I'm in desperate need of a job that doesn't involve a daily commute from Sheffield to Manchester.
    nick cleggs campaign manager?
    Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems have already chosen their candidate, and it isn't Clegg.

    I'm fairly certain Clegg and the Lib Dems are sick to death of Cameroon Tories.
  • It seems the FDP may be frit about new elections in Germany and are talking about going back to the table with Merkel.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-fdp/germanys-fdp-does-not-rule-out-renewed-coalition-talks-beer-idUSKBN1DM1H1

    The President is no doubt knocking heads together. I'm not tearing up my betting slips on the Jamaica coalition quite yet.
  • JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    IFS agree Hammond has slackened his borrowing requirements

    He can be a little more relaxed about that now that the deficit is under 1.5% of GDP, hence the falling as a share of GDP.
    Of course the big Tory criticism of Brown was that he ran a deficit even when the economy was growing and years after the previous recession - ie he failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining. Sadly the Tories are now repeating the same mistake.
    As ever with this dead parrot of a comment, what else would you have had them do?

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,071
    edited November 2017
    Is Neil's point about Housing Associations relevant?

    Surely numbers for all years will have been adjusted to be on consistent basis?

    ie Housing Association debt removed from back years?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    DavidL said:

    How on earth can Laura say the main beneficiaries of the stamp duty cut is those who own houses when the effect on prices is forecast to be 0.3%? The biggest beneficiaries will be those who buy their first homes and now have more available for the deposit (as well as any repairs, curtains, carpets etc).

    I wonder how they will police the question of who is a genuine first-time buyer? As against people who, say, are buying a second property with cash, or who used to be a home-owner but have rented for a while and are re-entering the market?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591

    DavidL said:

    The growth rates are getting a lot of attention but they are almost certainly nonsense. For a start are we really going to have another 5 years without recession? That will be 15 years from the last recession. Seems a very long cycle.

    Long, but not exceptionally so. It was 16 years from 1992 to 2008.
    That was a result of chronic economic mismanagement for which we are still paying dearly buying off the pain for years. It is certainly not a model for what we want to do now, quite the opposite in fact.
  • Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    Ooh, do I fancy a job as a computer science teacher?
    It might involve a bit of a pay cut, but I can recommend the holidays.
    I'm in desperate need of a job that doesn't involve a daily commute from Sheffield to Manchester.
    I'm lucky as I can walk to work, but at most schools the advice is usually not to live in the catchment area if you can avoid it.

    Obviously this does not apply to boarding schools...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    IFS agree Hammond has slackened his borrowing requirements

    He can be a little more relaxed about that now that the deficit is under 1.5% of GDP, hence the falling as a share of GDP.
    Of course the big Tory criticism of Brown was that he ran a deficit even when the economy was growing and years after the previous recession - ie he failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining. Sadly the Tories are now repeating the same mistake.
    As ever with this dead parrot of a comment, what else would you have had them do?

    No-one expects the Spanish Inquisition until they burst through the door....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 28,194
    edited November 2017

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?

    If it’s causing problems it needs raising to £100k.

    Maybe make it based on income rather than turnover, so a plumber buying and reselling expensive parts for a customer isn’t affected, but an IT consultant is.
    A plumber buying and reselling expensive parts needs to be registered so that he can reclaim the VAT on his purchases!
    A domestic plumber doesn’t, he either presents the vendor’s invoice to the customer and adds a fee for supply, or he takes the total cost of the part as a business expense to offset against income tax, depending on whether he’s a company or a sole trader.

    Only plumbers doing most of their work for businesses need to be VAT registered at the moment.

    Oh, and a huge amount of business for tradesmen is still in cash.
    But the point is that a plumber buying expensive parts is actually cushioned from the VAT threshold by being allowed suddenly to reclaim the VAT on all those expensive parts.

    The VAT threshold hurts worst those who don't get to reclaim much input VAT.
    No, the domestic plumber doesn’t care about VAT and just passes his bills, with VAT included, on to his customer. Mrs Jones buying a new boiler doesn’t care whether or not there’s VAT on the bill, she’s paying it anyway. Cutting the threshold to force the plumber into VAT just means he has a hundred hours of paperwork and a £1000 accountant’s bill.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    How on earth can Laura say the main beneficiaries of the stamp duty cut is those who own houses when the effect on prices is forecast to be 0.3%? The biggest beneficiaries will be those who buy their first homes and now have more available for the deposit (as well as any repairs, curtains, carpets etc).

    I wonder how they will police the question of who is a genuine first-time buyer? As against people who, say, are buying a second property with cash, or who used to be a home-owner but have rented for a while and are re-entering the market?
    If your name is on a public register then its not that hard to check. They will have to complete a declaration which would form the basis of a prosecution if it is false. How many would risk it?
  • It seems the FDP may be frit about new elections in Germany and are talking about going back to the table with Merkel.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-fdp/germanys-fdp-does-not-rule-out-renewed-coalition-talks-beer-idUSKBN1DM1H1

    Seems an odd attitude to take when they're polling more strongly now than they were at the election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905

    Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    Ooh, do I fancy a job as a computer science teacher?
    It might involve a bit of a pay cut, but I can recommend the holidays.
    I'm in desperate need of a job that doesn't involve a daily commute from Sheffield to Manchester.
    nick cleggs campaign manager?
    Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems have already chosen their candidate, and it isn't Clegg.

    I'm fairly certain Clegg and the Lib Dems are sick to death of Cameroon Tories.
    More to the point, the biggest strategic mistake the Cameroon Tories made was to overlook the potential for the LibDems to become their long-term allies in favour of the short-term attraction of shafting them on AV and then attacking them in their own seats. How things would be different if they had been able to see a little bit further into the future...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,331
    Fenster said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.
    What, even with all the foreigners here??
    Yep.
    Shout it loudly, but be aware that the consensus PB Brexiter orthodoxy is that this can't POSSIBLY be the case and is the reason everyone voted Brexit in the first place.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.
    What, even with all the foreigners here??
    Yep.
    The foreigners round your way are the English, aren’t they?
    Ha! I'm South Wales valleys.. very Anglicised. Premier League football shirts everywhere. Not so many English rugby shirts :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Andrew Neill overstating that every year we fail to make our fiscal targets. We have made them this year for a start. Exceeded them in fact.

    Andrew Neil is not having a good week of it.
    Really surprised me that Hammond spent so long talking about measures to improve productivity, measures no doubt fully disclosed to the OBR, they responded by forecasting a reduction in productivity and that isn't being asked about. It suggests their view of the likely success of all those "investments" is pretty sanguine.

    It doesn't surprise me that Corbyn missed it because he is economically illiterate but I would have expected Neil to have picked it up.
    The OBR is only allowed to forecast based on what is actually announced and legislated; the Chancellor's random thoughts in his bathtub don't qualify.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    How on earth can Laura say the main beneficiaries of the stamp duty cut is those who own houses when the effect on prices is forecast to be 0.3%? The biggest beneficiaries will be those who buy their first homes and now have more available for the deposit (as well as any repairs, curtains, carpets etc).

    I wonder how they will police the question of who is a genuine first-time buyer? As against people who, say, are buying a second property with cash, or who used to be a home-owner but have rented for a while and are re-entering the market?
    If your name is on a public register then its not that hard to check. They will have to complete a declaration which would form the basis of a prosecution if it is false. How many would risk it?
    The article says they wouldn't rule out new talks if Merkel and the Greens came up with a complete new set of proposals.

    Which would kind of seem obvious so it's a non article really.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,261

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    IFS agree Hammond has slackened his borrowing requirements

    He can be a little more relaxed about that now that the deficit is under 1.5% of GDP, hence the falling as a share of GDP.
    Of course the big Tory criticism of Brown was that he ran a deficit even when the economy was growing and years after the previous recession - ie he failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining. Sadly the Tories are now repeating the same mistake.
    As ever with this dead parrot of a comment, what else would you have had them do?

    Not indulge in Brexit and so waste billions that could have been spent more productively. And especially not then lecture others about putting politics over economics.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    I disagree. I reckon austerity has had a larger effect on the flattening of growth than Brexit has. And I'd argue - from a traditional dry-economic viewpoint - that austerity has been entirely necessary.

    Remain predicted enormous upheaval, directly after the vote. It hasn't happened. So ordinary people (like me*), who don't know economic shit from dirty clay, were braced for the worst only to be left pretty bemused by the hyperbole. We were told by the PM, the Chancellor and every economic figure of importance that we would be worse off. But again, it didn't and hasn't happened.

    *I'm as ordinary as you can get. Since June 2016 I'm £4200 a year better off (salary alone). The company I work for is on for a record year (we are printers - a tough trade). My mortgage is lower than it was. Houses are selling like hot-cakes on the estate I live on (in South Wales). And here's the kicker: I'm involved in valleys rugby, proper blue collar stuff. In recent years it's been difficult to help the (pretty poorly educated) young lads into jobs, but this season we found jobs for the six boys who needed work immediately. All of them are in trades, and all are coining it in. Indeed, a young electrician we helped into work a few years back told me recently he's been bringing home £800 a week!

    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.
    1. Remain predicted a year long recession. We have not had any recession.
    2. Remain predicted an immediate interest rate spike hitting mortgages. Mortgage rates went down and have now returned to the previous level.
    3. Remain said jobs would be hit. Unemployment has fallen.
    4. Remain said "every" households would be "worse off". Household income has continued to grow.

    It's no use Remainers now trying to claim something else was said. Everything is online.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    How on earth can Laura say the main beneficiaries of the stamp duty cut is those who own houses when the effect on prices is forecast to be 0.3%? The biggest beneficiaries will be those who buy their first homes and now have more available for the deposit (as well as any repairs, curtains, carpets etc).

    I wonder how they will police the question of who is a genuine first-time buyer? As against people who, say, are buying a second property with cash, or who used to be a home-owner but have rented for a while and are re-entering the market?
    If your name is on a public register then its not that hard to check. They will have to complete a declaration which would form the basis of a prosecution if it is false. How many would risk it?
    I agree, but I still remain unconvinced that it will be effectively policed.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.
    What, even with all the foreigners here??
    Yep.
    Shout it loudly, but be aware that the consensus PB Brexiter orthodoxy is that this can't POSSIBLY be the case and is the reason everyone voted Brexit in the first place.
    I can only speak for myself (and I didn't even vote in the Brexit ref) but I'd say immigration is way down the list of drivers for the (narrow) Brexit vote in South Wales. I'd say the pointless, empty buildings with EU labels on them did more damage to their reputation.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?

    If it’s causing problems it needs raising to £100k.

    Maybe make it based on income rather than turnover, so a plumber buying and reselling expensive parts for a customer isn’t affected, but an IT consultant is.
    A plumber buying and reselling expensive parts needs to be registered so that he can reclaim the VAT on his purchases!
    A domestic plumber doesn’t, he either presents the vendor’s invoice to the customer and adds a fee for supply, or he takes the total cost of the part as a business expense to offset against income tax, depending on whether he’s a company or a sole trader.

    Only plumbers doing most of their work for businesses need to be VAT registered at the moment.

    Oh, and a huge amount of business for tradesmen is still in cash.
    But the point is that a plumber buying expensive parts is actually cushioned from the VAT threshold by being allowed suddenly to reclaim the VAT on all those expensive parts.

    The VAT threshold hurts worst those who don't get to reclaim much input VAT.
    No, the domestic plumber doesn’t care about VAT and just passes his bills, with VAT included, on to his customer. Mrs Jones buying a new boiler doesn’t care whether or not there’s VAT on the bill, she’s paying it anyway. Cutting the threshold to force the plumber into VAT just means he has a hundred hours of paperwork and a £1000 accountant’s bill.
    That's just not true, there's no VAT on labour for instance as an input to reclaim but there is on your output if you're registered. A domestic plumber doesn't need to charge Mrs Jones any VAT on his labour etc if he's not VAT registered but does if he is meaning he may either be cheaper to Mrs Jones or not depending upon whether or not he is VAT-registered.

    Whereas eg a domestic tradesman who uses cheap or reuseable parts primarily and thus has a higher proportion of bills being his own labour (or labour he hires) will face a much steeper impact upon reaching the VAT threshold.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited November 2017
    1. Remain predicted a year long recession. We have not had any recession.
    2. Remain predicted an immediate interest rate spike hitting mortgages. Mortgage rates went down and have now returned to the previous level.
    3. Remain said jobs would be hit. Unemployment has fallen.
    4. Remain said "every" households would be "worse off". Household income has continued to grow.

    It's no use Remainers now trying to claim something else was said. Everything is online.

    @Elliot

    Agree with all of that. Though it won't stop the spin on here. Wealthy, educated metropolitans never enjoy admitting to provincial hicks that they were wrong.
  • JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    IFS agree Hammond has slackened his borrowing requirements

    He can be a little more relaxed about that now that the deficit is under 1.5% of GDP, hence the falling as a share of GDP.
    Of course the big Tory criticism of Brown was that he ran a deficit even when the economy was growing and years after the previous recession - ie he failed to fix the roof when the sun was shining. Sadly the Tories are now repeating the same mistake.
    As ever with this dead parrot of a comment, what else would you have had them do?

    Not indulge in Brexit and so waste billions that could have been spent more productively. And especially not then lecture others about putting politics over economics.
    Well, changing the subject entirely is definitely *an* approach.

    yawn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    I wonder what the Scottish government will do about stamp duty or SDLT for first time buyers. They got greedy and killed the top end of the market with the result that there was a significant shortfall in the revenue take. I think they might be reluctant to cut the take further.

    I am assuming already that any increase in the band for higher rate tax will not be passed on like last year. And freezing duties on alcohol won't do much against minimum pricing coming in the Spring.

    It all makes the details of the budget that bit less relevant tbh.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,905
    edited November 2017
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    1. Remain predicted a year long recession. We have not had any recession.
    2. Remain predicted an immediate interest rate spike hitting mortgages. Mortgage rates went down and have now returned to the previous level.
    3. Remain said jobs would be hit. Unemployment has fallen.
    4. Remain said "every" households would be "worse off". Household income has continued to grow.

    It's no use Remainers now trying to claim something else was said. Everything is online.

    @Elliot

    Agree with all of that. Though it won't stop the spin on here. Wealthy, educated metropolitans never enjoy admitting to provincial hicks that they were wrong.
    Remain were dumb to predict immediate crisis, but then of course they never expected their predictions to be put to the test.

    As in the fable, this is however no guarantee that the wolf won't eventually show up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    That really is rubbish. For the individual buyer trying to scrape together a deposit and pay his or her very modest and reasonable legal fees it will make a big difference even if has a modest effect in macro terms.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    To be fair, the best software engineers I know are not computing graduates. Physicists tend to do rather well, and mathematicians can also be rather good.

    Although as someone pointed out, that might be because there aren't that many jobs in pure physics or maths ...
    Maths graduates earn more than just about anyone else, and physicists can often tap into the same set of skills. Engineering is what more of my A-level Physics students apply for though.
    I'm unsure if you're agreeing or disagreeing with me. ;)

    I think the skills taught in maths and physics are fairly transferable to a range of well-paid jobs, especially compared to some other degrees.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,331
    edited November 2017
    Fenster said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.
    What, even with all the foreigners here??
    Yep.
    Shout it loudly, but be aware that the consensus PB Brexiter orthodoxy is that this can't POSSIBLY be the case and is the reason everyone voted Brexit in the first place.
    I can only speak for myself (and I didn't even vote in the Brexit ref) but I'd say immigration is way down the list of drivers for the (narrow) Brexit vote in South Wales. I'd say the pointless, empty buildings with EU labels on them did more damage to their reputation.
    Very interesting - just as I say doesn't tally with all the PB Brexiters (most of whom of course live in areas of very low immigration, I'd wager) who keep telling me that Brexit was all about immigration.

    Even our resident fortune teller and seer @HYUFD assured us that people voted, specifically, to replace FOM immigration with a points system.

    And I'm sure he is very familiar (more familiar than you, if I may say) with the South Wales Brexit vote profile.
  • DavidL said:

    That really is rubbish. For the individual buyer trying to scrape together a deposit and pay his or her very modest and reasonable legal fees it will make a big difference even if has a modest effect in macro terms.
    I would have thought so, yes.
  • Fenster said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    There's only one thing notable about this budget. From the downgrading of growth estimates since March 2016, it is now clear that the much-derided Project Fear financial estimates were pretty good. The Brexit damage is arriving, just as predicted.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564

    LOL.

    You were wrong. Difficult to admit, I know. But completely wrong.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Britain has suffered half of that 6.2% difference already since the March 2016 forecasts.
    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.
    What, even with all the foreigners here??
    Yep.
    Shout it loudly, but be aware that the consensus PB Brexiter orthodoxy is that this can't POSSIBLY be the case and is the reason everyone voted Brexit in the first place.
    I can only speak for myself (and I didn't even vote in the Brexit ref) but I'd say immigration is way down the list of drivers for the (narrow) Brexit vote in South Wales. I'd say the pointless, empty buildings with EU labels on them did more damage to their reputation.
    Wasn't it steel that turned the Ramshaggers Welsh into Leavers?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    edited November 2017
    Elliot said:


    1. Remain predicted a year long recession. We have not had any recession.
    2. Remain predicted an immediate interest rate spike hitting mortgages. Mortgage rates went down and have now returned to the previous level.
    3. Remain said jobs would be hit. Unemployment has fallen.
    4. Remain said "every" households would be "worse off". Household income has continued to grow.

    It's no use Remainers now trying to claim something else was said. Everything is online.

    It doesn't matter what effect the Remain campaign predicted, which was hardly less accurate than the Leave campaign predictions. What matters is the effects Brexit is having and will have, and if those are bad effects, what can we do about them?

    FWIW I didn't buy into Armageddon because I was sure if that happened Brexit would be reversed. Brexit will be crap was my central prediction. Actually a near certitude.
  • Re comments up-thread about Comp Sci teachers: very few if any are computing graduates. At my current school the teacher who introduced the subject was a classicist.

    To be fair, the best software engineers I know are not computing graduates. Physicists tend to do rather well, and mathematicians can also be rather good.

    Although as someone pointed out, that might be because there aren't that many jobs in pure physics or maths ...
    Maths graduates earn more than just about anyone else, and physicists can often tap into the same set of skills. Engineering is what more of my A-level Physics students apply for though.
    I'm unsure if you're agreeing or disagreeing with me. ;)

    I think the skills taught in maths and physics are fairly transferable to a range of well-paid jobs, especially compared to some other degrees.
    A bit of both.
  • Elliot said:

    Fenster said:



    I disagree. I reckon austerity has had a larger effect on the flattening of growth than Brexit has. And I'd argue - from a traditional dry-economic viewpoint - that austerity has been entirely necessary.

    Remain predicted enormous upheaval, directly after the vote. It hasn't happened. So ordinary people (like me*), who don't know economic shit from dirty clay, were braced for the worst only to be left pretty bemused by the hyperbole. We were told by the PM, the Chancellor and every economic figure of importance that we would be worse off. But again, it didn't and hasn't happened.

    *I'm as ordinary as you can get. Since June 2016 I'm £4200 a year better off (salary alone). The company I work for is on for a record year (we are printers - a tough trade). My mortgage is lower than it was. Houses are selling like hot-cakes on the estate I live on (in South Wales). And here's the kicker: I'm involved in valleys rugby, proper blue collar stuff. In recent years it's been difficult to help the (pretty poorly educated) young lads into jobs, but this season we found jobs for the six boys who needed work immediately. All of them are in trades, and all are coining it in. Indeed, a young electrician we helped into work a few years back told me recently he's been bringing home £800 a week!

    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.

    1. Remain predicted a year long recession. We have not had any recession.
    2. Remain predicted an immediate interest rate spike hitting mortgages. Mortgage rates went down and have now returned to the previous level.
    3. Remain said jobs would be hit. Unemployment has fallen.
    4. Remain said "every" households would be "worse off". Household income has continued to grow.

    It's no use Remainers now trying to claim something else was said. Everything is online.
    I gave you chapter and verse on what was said. It's even quoted directly within your own post. Here it is again (online from the time):

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cost-british-households-4300-per-year

    "Using a negotiated bilateral agreement like Canada as the central assumption for the alternative, Britain would be worse off by the equivalent of £1,800 every year for every man, woman and child in Britain after 15 years, and overall GDP would be lower by 6.2%. Other options being proposed would be worse still."

    Leavers are now arguing that the anaemic growth Britain has seen and is predicted for the indefinite future is Nothing To Do With Brexit. Funny that.

    Meanwhile, more money is being allocated this year to Brexit preparations than to the NHS. Not so snappy for bus messaging.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,591
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Andrew Neill overstating that every year we fail to make our fiscal targets. We have made them this year for a start. Exceeded them in fact.

    Andrew Neil is not having a good week of it.
    Really surprised me that Hammond spent so long talking about measures to improve productivity, measures no doubt fully disclosed to the OBR, they responded by forecasting a reduction in productivity and that isn't being asked about. It suggests their view of the likely success of all those "investments" is pretty sanguine.

    It doesn't surprise me that Corbyn missed it because he is economically illiterate but I would have expected Neil to have picked it up.
    The OBR is only allowed to forecast based on what is actually announced and legislated; the Chancellor's random thoughts in his bathtub don't qualify.
    But his budget measures do. And these investments are in the budget. So we are going to have £44bn of largely off balance sheet expenditure on housing and 1.4% growth? Seems surprising unless we were heading dangerously close to recession without it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,176

    Elliot said:

    Fenster said:



    I disagree. I reckon austerity has had a larger effect on the flattening of growth than Brexit has. And I'd argue - from a traditional dry-economic viewpoint - that austerity has been entirely necessary.

    Remain predicted enormous upheaval, directly after the vote. It hasn't happened. So ordinary people (like me*), who don't know economic shit from dirty clay, were braced for the worst only to be left pretty bemused by the hyperbole. We were told by the PM, the Chancellor and every economic figure of importance that we would be worse off. But again, it didn't and hasn't happened.

    *I'm as ordinary as you can get. Since June 2016 I'm £4200 a year better off (salary alone). The company I work for is on for a record year (we are printers - a tough trade). My mortgage is lower than it was. Houses are selling like hot-cakes on the estate I live on (in South Wales). And here's the kicker: I'm involved in valleys rugby, proper blue collar stuff. In recent years it's been difficult to help the (pretty poorly educated) young lads into jobs, but this season we found jobs for the six boys who needed work immediately. All of them are in trades, and all are coining it in. Indeed, a young electrician we helped into work a few years back told me recently he's been bringing home £800 a week!

    At my level, the lower working class level, things are doing okay.

    1. Remain predicted a year long recession. We have not had any recession.
    2. Remain predicted an immediate interest rate spike hitting mortgages. Mortgage rates went down and have now returned to the previous level.
    3. Remain said jobs would be hit. Unemployment has fallen.
    4. Remain said "every" households would be "worse off". Household income has continued to grow.

    It's no use Remainers now trying to claim something else was said. Everything is online.

    Meanwhile, more money is being allocated this year to Brexit preparations than to the NHS. Not so snappy for bus messaging.
    Think you might want to edit that bit.
  • DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Andrew Neill overstating that every year we fail to make our fiscal targets. We have made them this year for a start. Exceeded them in fact.

    Andrew Neil is not having a good week of it.
    Really surprised me that Hammond spent so long talking about measures to improve productivity, measures no doubt fully disclosed to the OBR, they responded by forecasting a reduction in productivity and that isn't being asked about. It suggests their view of the likely success of all those "investments" is pretty sanguine.

    It doesn't surprise me that Corbyn missed it because he is economically illiterate but I would have expected Neil to have picked it up.
    The OBR is only allowed to forecast based on what is actually announced and legislated; the Chancellor's random thoughts in his bathtub don't qualify.
    But his budget measures do. And these investments are in the budget. So we are going to have £44bn of largely off balance sheet expenditure on housing and 1.4% growth? Seems surprising unless we were heading dangerously close to recession without it.
    From what is being said on the Daily Politics it doesn't sound like the £44bn is off-balance sheet.
  • DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Andrew Neill overstating that every year we fail to make our fiscal targets. We have made them this year for a start. Exceeded them in fact.

    Andrew Neil is not having a good week of it.
    Really surprised me that Hammond spent so long talking about measures to improve productivity, measures no doubt fully disclosed to the OBR, they responded by forecasting a reduction in productivity and that isn't being asked about. It suggests their view of the likely success of all those "investments" is pretty sanguine.

    It doesn't surprise me that Corbyn missed it because he is economically illiterate but I would have expected Neil to have picked it up.
    The OBR is only allowed to forecast based on what is actually announced and legislated; the Chancellor's random thoughts in his bathtub don't qualify.
    But his budget measures do. And these investments are in the budget. So we are going to have £44bn of largely off balance sheet expenditure on housing and 1.4% growth? Seems surprising unless we were heading dangerously close to recession without it.
    Over how long is that £44 billion?

    Besides, housebuilding is not investment in capital goods or infrastructure that are going to increase the capacity of the economy, is it? It needs to be done but, like health and defense spending, I'm not sure you can call it investment.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,176
    Amazing how everyone still thinks they're right about Brexit, isn't it? :)
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    IanB2 said:

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    1. Remain predicted a year long recession. We have not had any recession.
    2. Remain predicted an immediate interest rate spike hitting mortgages. Mortgage rates went down and have now returned to the previous level.
    3. Remain said jobs would be hit. Unemployment has fallen.
    4. Remain said "every" households would be "worse off". Household income has continued to grow.

    It's no use Remainers now trying to claim something else was said. Everything is online.

    @Elliot

    Agree with all of that. Though it won't stop the spin on here. Wealthy, educated metropolitans never enjoy admitting to provincial hicks that they were wrong.
    Remain were dumb to predict immediate crisis, but then of course they never expected their predictions to be put to the test.

    As in the fable, this is however no guarantee that the wolf won't eventually show up.

    I don't disagree with that either. We are still spending more than we earn and the debt mountain is eye-watering... so we are not out of the woods and Remianers will do their best to link the next recession to Brexit.

    The saddest thing has been the visceral desperation with which Remainers have opposed Brexit. Their desire to promote bad news and heighten anxiety, however tenuously linked to Brexit, has been incredibly counter-productive. You only have to see Alastair Campbell's spite re Ireland last week to witness a man who'd prefer a return to the Troubles than witness a successful Brexit.

    The organised Remain mob on Twitter and beyond has undeniably had an affect on morale and their threats of doom will only worsen the closer we get to actually leaving.

    I'm still pretty positive though. Like most sleeves-rolled-up Welsh blokes, I'm attuned to arrogant know-it-alls and privileged people who are full of shit.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,352

    Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)

    Doesn't bother me...

    ;-)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,397
    edited November 2017
    Fenster said:



    @Elliot

    Agree with all of that. Though it won't stop the spin on here. Wealthy, educated metropolitans never enjoy admitting to provincial hicks that they were wrong.

    Bollocks argument. Totally spurious.
This discussion has been closed.