Really disappointing growth projections but assuming productivity will remain flat will hopefully prove too pessimistic. What is he going to do to help?
Those OBR forecasts are far lower than what I have pencilled in. Will be interesting to see what the methodology is, this year they are going to be £15bn out on the deficit figure, so they are fallible.
I don't understand how come growth can be below forecast while the deficit will be cut by more than forecast. The two should surely be inversely correlated?
Has any Chancellor ever forecast a recession, ever? Edit: these are OBR figures. Still no recession though, what happened to TCO’s vision of Brexit Armageddon?
Those OBR forecasts are far lower than what I have pencilled in. Will be interesting to see what the methodology is, this year they are going to be £15bn out on the deficit figure, so they are fallible.
More importantly - if they are looking weak - WTF is Phil doing to fix em ?
Let's be honest, five consecutive years of economic growth bears no resemblance to the armageddon predicted by the Remain camp.
And it is because it is assumed that the lack of productivity whilst in the EU will continue that growth is projected so low.
Presumably the OBR has already decided that none of these steps to improve productivity are going to work? I doubt Corbyn is smart enough to pick up on that.
Has any Chancellor ever forecast a recession, ever? Edit: these are OBR figures. Still no recession though, what happened to TCO’s vision of Brexit Armageddon?
Those are based on getting a Brexit deal, those projections would look horrendous if they were assuming WTO Brexit
I have said on here previously that if the devil himself were to take control of the Conservative Party, I would still vote for him for as long as Corbyn is in charge. Not so much because I fear Corbyn, which I do, but because I fear the people who he surrounds himself with a great deal more.
The idea that these people are anywhere close to the levers of power is truly terrifying.
And people worry about the Leave campaign having Russian influence...
If I've done my sums right, the difference between the OBR's estimates of GDP in 2020 based on their estimates of growth at the time of the March 2016 budget and their current estimates is something like 3% - roughly halfway to the 6.2% difference that the Treasury were estimating by 2030 post-Brexit.
Growth forecast downgraded but borrowing forecast reduced. I'm confused.
Taxation up, presumably?
But how though without a change in rates?
Tax take is positively correlated with economic growth so if growth is down on prediction then the tax take should also be down on prediction rather than up.
Not going to happen, unless he can offer six figure salaries to them. Articulate Comp Sci grads are in massive demand by industry, in case the Chancellor hadn’t noticed.
No idea. Unless they are going to either a) stuff comp sci grads with cash or b) fudge by retraining in 12 months someone who studied english or history or something.
Growth forecast downgraded but borrowing forecast reduced. I'm confused.
Public borrowing numbers have turned out to be much better than forecast. The forecast for the current financial year was £58bn, whereas it will be more like £40bn.
I haven't seen PMQs in ages and I'm no fan on May but she looks confident. Even cocksure.
Must be the 'nothing to lose' mentality.
Likewise. Don't normally bother but here for the budget. She is looking quite robust. If only she would learn to work with her Chancellor...
Hammond is completely bereft of imagination. I don't blame her for wanting rid of him. The problem arises when you try and replace him. There is no obvious successor.
Hunt, Gove, Williamson (list drawn up by Williamson).
No idea. Unless they are going to either a) stuff comp sci grads with cash or b) fudge by retraining in 12 months someone who studied english or history or something.
Option b looks the most likely. Get geography teachers to do CS lessons. Sounds like our education system.
No idea. Unless they are going to either a) stuff comp sci grads with cash or b) fudge by retraining in 12 months someone who studied english or history or something.
I'm not going to complain about more upward pressure on software developer wages..
Universal Credit changes now. 7 days gone, more advances, HB. £1.5bn package. Left the 6 weeks but big mitigation.
I don't understand the six week wait. It makes no sense to leave people who have lost their jobs without any income for 6 weeks. Especially since a lot of people are living hand to mouth, 4 weeks kind of makes sense but it really should be 2 or 3 weeks.
Those March figures are in turn less than the pre-referendum OBR predictions that had real GDP growth over 2.0% in each of those years. So approximately 0.7 percentage points per year cumulative Brexit drag on the economy. This is significantly worse than the notorious Treasury prediction of 6.2% relative reduction in GDP over 15 years, or £4300 per household.
What assumptions are they making about the Brexit deal? The Treasury forecast assumed a soft Brexit including SIngle Market and Customs Union.
On the upside, if you must Brexit, it's best to do it in a worldwide economic upswing. People may not notice our peers doing much better than us.
Comments
Or daily?
Bored already.
Indeed the UK differs with the US on that as the latter favours legalised marijuana by a small plurality as is now the position in Colorado and California
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/19/support-for-legal-pot-not-so-high-Britian/
Britain's bright Brexit future.
Let's be honest, five consecutive years of economic growth bears no resemblance to the armageddon predicted by the Remain camp.
Edit: these are OBR figures. Still no recession though, what happened to TCO’s vision of Brexit Armageddon?
Presumably the OBR has already decided that none of these steps to improve productivity are going to work? I doubt Corbyn is smart enough to pick up on that.
How shocking that Brown was running a massive deficit in the middle of a decade and a half of economic boom.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/30/russia-ukraine-war-kiev-conflict
I have said on here previously that if the devil himself were to take control of the Conservative Party, I would still vote for him for as long as Corbyn is in charge. Not so much because I fear Corbyn, which I do, but because I fear the people who he surrounds himself with a great deal more.
The idea that these people are anywhere close to the levers of power is truly terrifying.
And people worry about the Leave campaign having Russian influence...
Tax take is positively correlated with economic growth so if growth is down on prediction then the tax take should also be down on prediction rather than up.
We already have one, unless it has been closed????
Articulate Comp Sci grads are in massive demand by industry, in case the Chancellor hadn’t noticed.
He's up to 4 sips.
I've bought minutes at 54, currently £22 down but improving by the minute of course !
What assumptions are they making about the Brexit deal? The Treasury forecast assumed a soft Brexit including SIngle Market and Customs Union.
On the upside, if you must Brexit, it's best to do it in a worldwide economic upswing. People may not notice our peers doing much better than us.
https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-driven/panamera-turbo-s-e-hybrid-sport-turismo-driven/37126
Would love to see the detail of this policy.