politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Stop, Hammond Time
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There really ought to be a rule that forecasts a recession in the medium-term planning (say at five years hence, subject to evidence suggesting it'd be sooner, as part of a 10-year forecast).Sandpit said:
Has any Chancellor ever forecast a recession, ever?TheScreamingEagles said:
Edit: these are OBR figures. Still no recession though, what happened to TCO’s vision of Brexit Armageddon?0 -
They are not booming but doing better, in part because of the amount we import from them. They really should think about that.JonathanD said:
Fortunately we've been pulled along by a booming EU.Fenster said:
Recession was the Remain forecast. Let's not have any of this mealy-mouthed bullshit.JonathanD said:
Medium term GDP growth of 1.5% as a result of Brexit was pretty much the Remain forecast.Fenster said:
Where is the economic crash?AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/933316091304202240
Britain's bright Brexit future.
Let's be honest, five consecutive years of economic growth bears no resemblance to the armageddon predicted by the Remain camp.0 -
Appendix 32 (B) footnote 17 in 6-pt light grey type.DavidL said:So where are the tax increases to pay for all of this?
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Duty on spirits frozen !0
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Are you telling them to put the economy before politics?DavidL said:
They are not booming but doing better, in part because of the amount we import from them. They really should think about that.JonathanD said:
Fortunately we've been pulled along by a booming EU.Fenster said:
Recession was the Remain forecast. Let's not have any of this mealy-mouthed bullshit.JonathanD said:
Medium term GDP growth of 1.5% as a result of Brexit was pretty much the Remain forecast.Fenster said:
Where is the economic crash?AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/933316091304202240
Britain's bright Brexit future.
Let's be honest, five consecutive years of economic growth bears no resemblance to the armageddon predicted by the Remain camp.0 -
Very good.Richard_Nabavi said:
Appendix 32 (B) footnote 17 in 6-pt light grey type.DavidL said:So where are the tax increases to pay for all of this?
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Stop watch update?0
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And leaves Corbyn with one of his main talking points....TheScreamingEagles said:
A little, but it effectively can leave families struggling for other stuff for up to six weeks.DavidL said:
Having the overlap of the HB for 2 weeks will help.TheScreamingEagles said:
It still screws those who are migrating over to UC from other benefits.DavidL said:Universal Credit changes now. 7 days gone, more advances, HB. £1.5bn package. Left the 6 weeks but big mitigation.
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Not sure extra tax on White Lightning will pay for everything0
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So would I. My hybrid is due in March. We are looking at charging points before then as others in the company are switching then too and over the next few years. Diesel cars for us are dead.Sandpit said:For any execs looking forward to electric car benefit in kind ending:
https://www.pistonheads.com/news/ph-driven/panamera-turbo-s-e-hybrid-sport-turismo-driven/37126
Would love to see the detail of this policy.0 -
Probably up to 40 minutes as the BBC feed via mobile internet is always delayedFrancisUrquhart said:Stop watch update?
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Taxes....0
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£350 million !0
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National Living wage up 4.4%. That saves a fortune in benefits.0
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Here we go, how much am I going to get stung for...0
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Here we go...0
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Do you enjoy White Lightning and roll ups ?FrancisUrquhart said:Here we go, how much am I going to get stung for...
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Don't do it Phil.0
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How did you guess? ;-)Pulpstar said:
Do you enjoy White Lightning and roll ups ?FrancisUrquhart said:Here we go, how much am I going to get stung for...
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Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.0
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'Stop moaning, I know yer starving but at least you've a roof over your head.'TheScreamingEagles said:
A little, but it effectively can leave families struggling for other stuff for up to six weeks.DavidL said:
Having the overlap of the HB for 2 weeks will help.TheScreamingEagles said:
It still screws those who are migrating over to UC from other benefits.DavidL said:Universal Credit changes now. 7 days gone, more advances, HB. £1.5bn package. Left the 6 weeks but big mitigation.
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VAT held at £85,0000
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Phew....Big_G_NorthWales said:VAT held at £85,000
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Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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Where are the tax increases coming from0
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Where is all this extra money coming from while lower growth and also still slashing the deficit....0
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Never, ever again, for long-haul. I'd rather stay at home. Premium economy is OK, though, especially for daytime flights.DavidL said:
Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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Diesel cars, white lightning and roll ups. Also Nabavi's air miles.Big_G_NorthWales said:Where are the tax increases coming from
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APD is a really nasty tax on productivity. It should be abolished.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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Higher rate pension relief maybeFrancisUrquhart said:Where is all this extra money coming from while lower growth and also still slashing the deficit....
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Good. That was the most stupid idea anyone suggested to him.Big_G_NorthWales said:VAT held at £85,000
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Ever....Sandpit said:
Good. That was the most stupid idea anyone suggested to him.Big_G_NorthWales said:VAT held at £85,000
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Awful idea.DavidL said:
Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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Oh yes, nasty multinationals getting hit as well. I think I am at a full house now (well once he tells us about his Bob the Builder plans).0
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Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)0
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Good idea making marketplaces jointly liable for VAT fraud.....0
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Past the record shortest budget time now.0
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Couldn’t agree more, but then you and I (and people on here more generally) pay somewhat more than average in APD.MaxPB said:
APD is a really nasty tax on productivity. It should be abolished.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)
Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.0 -
Empty property penalty - excellent.0
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What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?0
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eBay and Amazon going to have to get their arse in gear. All those dodgy Chinese sellers avoiding the vat are their problem now!0
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What a great idea. I am all on board with that.Mortimer said:
LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)
Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.0 -
Next the Hawaiian pizza levy...FrancisUrquhart said:
What a great idea. I am all on board with that.Mortimer said:
LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)
Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.0 -
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Sliding scale intro rather than cliff edge at 85k?????Richard_Nabavi said:What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?
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On that Best CoE, what were the stats, say, 2017preGE, 2017prelocals, 2016preBrexit and 2015preGE?0
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I took it as 'will look at moving from a cliff-edge to threshold' but just out for consultation.Richard_Nabavi said:What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?
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I think we also need a special levy on Radiohead tickets! It is good for the public health.foxinsoxuk said:
Next the Hawaiian pizza levy...FrancisUrquhart said:
What a great idea. I am all on board with that.Mortimer said:
LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)
Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.0 -
I recently flew on Easyjet, I'm still traumatised by it, makes me appreciate Etihad and Emirates even more, and their wonderful first class teamMaxPB said:
Awful idea.DavidL said:
Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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Agreed.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
Go cattle. Spend more on red wine. Sleep.Richard_Nabavi said:
Never, ever again, for long-haul. I'd rather stay at home. Premium economy is OK, though, especially for daytime flights.DavidL said:
Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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A daily £1149 charge.FrancisUrquhart said:
What a great idea. I am all on board with that.Mortimer said:
LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)
Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.0 -
And the Alternative VAT policy that never arrives...foxinsoxuk said:
Next the Hawaiian pizza levy...FrancisUrquhart said:
What a great idea. I am all on board with that.Mortimer said:
LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)
Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.0 -
£44bn of spending on housing. And growth is going to slow?? Even the NAO will have a hard time claiming construction is falling whilst that is spent.0
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Kerching
We're on a pound a minute from here on out 8)0 -
If you think easyJet is bad, try Ryanair. You will need to shower in dettol for a week.TheScreamingEagles said:
I recently flew on Easyjet, I'm still traumatised by it, makes me appreciate Etihad and Emirates even more, and their wonderful first class teamMaxPB said:
Awful idea.DavidL said:
Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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I was thinking maybe 4000%? Or is that too moderate?FrancisUrquhart said:
I think we also need a special levy on Radiohead tickets! It is good for the public health.foxinsoxuk said:
Next the Hawaiian pizza levy...FrancisUrquhart said:
What a great idea. I am all on board with that.Mortimer said:
LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)
Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.0 -
Anyone who buys any Apple products cannot get any benefits: if you can afford to pay a surcharge for fashionable tat, you don't need any extra money.Mortimer said:
LOL.FrancisUrquhart said:Who says pb isn’t representative of the wider public...higher apd on business class flight...uproar :-)
Lets hope they put a super tax on phones without a headphone jack.
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I don't see how the GDP forecast matches up with any of the other information from today. It feels as if the OBR are playing it extremely safe for the headline forecast. I'll wait for the Bank's forecasts tbh.DavidL said:£44bn of spending on housing. And growth is going to slow?? Even the NAO will have a hard time claiming construction is falling whilst that is spent.
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If it’s causing problems it needs raising to £100k.Richard_Nabavi said:What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?
Maybe make it based on income rather than turnover, so a plumber buying and reselling expensive parts for a customer isn’t affected, but an IT consultant is.0 -
Agreed. Of course Chancellors are always a lot happier saying growth has come in higher than forecast too. Especially as they get nearer an election.MaxPB said:
I don't see how the GDP forecast matches up with any of the other information from today. It feels as if the OBR are playing it extremely safe for the headline forecast. I'll wait for the Bank's forecasts tbh.DavidL said:£44bn of spending on housing. And growth is going to slow?? Even the NAO will have a hard time claiming construction is falling whilst that is spent.
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Let's see how much the 40% & 45% threshold moves. Less than inflation I'm sure.FF43 said:
I suspect inflation is largely paying for it. eg the £2.8 billion extra for NHS England is less than inflation for a £122 billion budget. Most taxes will increase with inflation.DavidL said:So where are the tax increases to pay for all of this?
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Keeping the VAT threshold earns cash without annoying people.
Oldest trick in the book, fiscal drag.0 -
I just came back from Japan recently. Didn't regret the decision to spend miles upgrading from premium to club. I don't understand why anyone would bother with premium economy though, better to go club or cattle.TheScreamingEagles said:
I recently flew on Easyjet, I'm still traumatised by it, makes me appreciate Etihad and Emirates even more, and their wonderful first class teamMaxPB said:
Awful idea.DavidL said:
Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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Oh! Do you think that there's another due soon, as well?DavidL said:
Agreed. Of course Chancellors are always a lot happier saying growth has come in higher than forecast too. Especially as they get nearer an election.MaxPB said:
I don't see how the GDP forecast matches up with any of the other information from today. It feels as if the OBR are playing it extremely safe for the headline forecast. I'll wait for the Bank's forecasts tbh.DavidL said:£44bn of spending on housing. And growth is going to slow?? Even the NAO will have a hard time claiming construction is falling whilst that is spent.
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No, don’t try Ryanair.FrancisUrquhart said:
If you think easyJet is bad, try Ryanair. You will need to shower in dettol for a week.TheScreamingEagles said:
I recently flew on Easyjet, I'm still traumatised by it, makes me appreciate Etihad and Emirates even more, and their wonderful first class teamMaxPB said:
Awful idea.DavidL said:
Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
One of the few advantages of a no-deal Brexit is that Ryanair will be banned from flying in the U.K.0 -
Another huge freebie on stamp duty.0
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Stamp duty!0
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Stamp duty gone on first time buyers upto £300,000 from today0
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There must be some nasty shit in the devils detail.0
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Damn, I'm a second time buyer.0
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Wow Stamp Duty abolished on all properties under 300k for first time buyers!0
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That’s a biggie!Big_G_NorthWales said:Stamp duty gone on first time buyers upto £300,000 from today
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A plumber buying and reselling expensive parts needs to be registered so that he can reclaim the VAT on his purchases!Sandpit said:
If it’s causing problems it needs raising to £100k.Richard_Nabavi said:What did he mean by considering 'reforming' the VAT registration threshold, I wonder?
Maybe make it based on income rather than turnover, so a plumber buying and reselling expensive parts for a customer isn’t affected, but an IT consultant is.0 -
One small rabbit - is there another ?0
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Did he say anything about pension tax relief? Didn't hear it.0
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1 hr 1 min 50 seconds.0
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Where are the tax increases - very well received by the party
Lets see how this pans out0 -
Won't this increase house prices???? More demand from 1st timers - same supply (given or take a few 1000 that they manage to actually build).Sandpit said:
That’s a biggie!Big_G_NorthWales said:Stamp duty gone on first time buyers upto £300,000 from today
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Go by train.Richard_Nabavi said:
Never, ever again, for long-haul. I'd rather stay at home. Premium economy is OK, though, especially for daytime flights.DavidL said:
Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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That's it?0
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NoDavidL said:Did he say anything about pension tax relief? Didn't hear it.
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Very nice stamp duty change.0
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PE is good for a long haul day flight (DXB-LHR) where you need to go to a meeting at the other end but don’t need to sleep on the plane.MaxPB said:
I just came back from Japan recently. Didn't regret the decision to spend miles upgrading from premium to club. I don't understand why anyone would bother with premium economy though, better to go club or cattle.TheScreamingEagles said:
I recently flew on Easyjet, I'm still traumatised by it, makes me appreciate Etihad and Emirates even more, and their wonderful first class teamMaxPB said:
Awful idea.DavidL said:
Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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This doesn't add up. We are missing something even although the £44bn is going to be mainly off balance sheet.0
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I'm curious as to exactly how the term is defined. Could one partner buy their first property and the other buy their second?Pulpstar said:Damn, I'm a second time buyer.
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Time for jezza’s greatest hits....the tories the tories the tories0
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Bit hard if you're going to the Caribbean!david_herdson said:
Go by train.Richard_Nabavi said:
Never, ever again, for long-haul. I'd rather stay at home. Premium economy is OK, though, especially for daytime flights.DavidL said:
Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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Is this a record? A possible loophole found within 30 seconds!Tissue_Price said:
I'm curious as to exactly how the term is defined. Could one partner buy their first property and the other buy their second?Pulpstar said:Damn, I'm a second time buyer.
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My other half is a first time buyer, but she's buying with me - and I'm a seller & second time buyer.
Hmm...0 -
I simply don't see how this balances out. I assume there must be something in the paperwork but he seems to be saying we will have more spending, lower GDP and lower debt. Surely those things are mutually exclusive.0
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Go by train to Paris or Brussels, and fly business from there. Cheaper even without considering APD!Richard_Nabavi said:
Bit hard if you're going to the Caribbean!david_herdson said:
Go by train.Richard_Nabavi said:
Never, ever again, for long-haul. I'd rather stay at home. Premium economy is OK, though, especially for daytime flights.DavidL said:
Go cattle.Richard_Nabavi said:Hmm, increase on air passenger duty for premium & business class. That's the winter fuel allowance more than clawed back, I suspect.
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Nothing on plan2 student loans?
Did I miss it?
The £25k threshold, rising with RPI - is that still going ahead?
Odd not to mention it.0 -
Of course first time buyers in the SNP run Scotland will still have to pay stamp duty.0
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He is too shoutyFrancisUrquhart said:Time for jezza’s greatest hits....the tories the tories the tories
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