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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the dramatic events in Harare

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  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    When is the Commons next voting on EU withdrawal bill amendments?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    Roger said:

    There's a difference between the economic effects of an actual Brexit and the loss of confidence caused by the Brexit vote. The vote led to a 15% devaluation (the effects of which are just working their way through the system now) and the new reality we find ourselves in once we're outside. The smart money considers those effects to be somewhere between a difficult decade and third world status.
    Also increased tourism and a boost to exports, so even on that example there was a silver lining
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    HYUFD said:

    Uh no. First diehard Remainers warned we were heading for Great Depression 2 after a Leave vote, they were proved completely wrong, now again they warn we are heading for Great Depression 2 after Brexit. Again no we are heading for a transition period and then a Canada style FTA.

    Most Leavers also voted to restore sovereignty and end free movement, both of which will be achieved once Brexit is delivered. Finally of course more than 80% oppose the Euro so not only are we unlikely to ever rejoin the EU we are even more unlikely to ever join the Eurozone
    For the Brexiter side, you'd better be right that there won't be any issues. You've all basically gone all-in on it going well.
  • It is very complex but hope on humanitarian grounds she is released home soon

    I think we all have a good idea what this is about. Who needs enemies when the bigmouth blond buffoon is your friend?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    edited November 2017

    I read that as "Export Lager". Which is probably true.
    Heineken etc certainly. The largest single destination for EU exports is the UK, then the USA, then China, then Switzerland and Russia and then Turkey.
    https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569

    Yes I agree but the complication seems to be that as a dual citizen we do not have the same powers of influence
    IIRC Iran doesn't recognise the concept of dual citizenship.. As far as they aere concerned, I'm pretty sure she's still Iranian. Which, as you rightly say, limits our influence.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Operation Valkyrie 1944?

    Operation Valkyrie 1944?
    Portugal 1974?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    edited November 2017
    Roger said:

    There's a difference between the economic effects of an actual Brexit and the loss of confidence caused by the Brexit vote. The vote led to a 15% devaluation (the effects of which are just working their way through the system now) and the new reality we find ourselves in once we're outside. The smart money considers those effects to be somewhere between a difficult decade and third world status.
    The effect of the devaluation has been mixed. On the one hand, inflation has risen to a peak of 3%, slightly cutting real wages. On the other, industrial output has risen, and the trade deficit has fallen. I think it would take a lot more than that (post exit) to make rejoining a real prospect.

    For the UK to reach Third World status, you'd probably be looking at a contraction of about 80% in GDP per head, over the course of a decade.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    edited November 2017

    For the Brexiter side, you'd better be right that there won't be any issues. You've all basically gone all-in on it going well.
    Depends how you define going badly? For most Leavers that means staying in the EU, failing to regain sovereignty and leaving free movement unchecked.

    For most Remainers it is the economy going badly but a FTA will ease those concerns, only a minority of Remainers are ideologically committed to the EU or EEA.
  • I think we all have a good idea what this is about. Who needs enemies when the bigmouth blond buffoon is your friend?
    It is more complex than Boris ill judged remarks
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,458

    Can we get back to discussing far more important issues like most overrated bands of the 90s?

    I thought perv hunting was your thing?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    Heineken etc certainly. The largest single destination for EU exports is the UK, then the USA, then China, then Switzerland and Russia and then Turkey.
    https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/
    You think the Heineken, Carlsberg, or Fosters you drink here come from Holland, Denmark or Australia? Crikey.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591



    For the Brexiter side, you'd better be right that there won't be any issues. You've all basically gone all-in on it going well.

    A study of the evidence given by car manufacturers to the HoC yesterday might be salutary to anyone who thinks a hard Brexit could go well (is there anyone who still takes that view?).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,062
    Ishmael_Z said:

    You think the Heineken, Carlsberg, or Fosters you drink here come from Holland, Denmark or Australia? Crikey.
    Heineken is headquartered in the Netherlands and Carlsberg in Denmark
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2017
    Roger said:

    I thought perv hunting was your thing?
    You seem to be confusing me with Tom Watson. You still think your mate Kev is a good egg?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Can't quite believe Mugabe is under house arrest. It looked like it would never happen until very recently.
  • F1: if you were thinking of backing Alonso for the title next year, the surprisingly long odds of 20 are now up on Betfair Exchange. Even with my anaemic account, I've put a little on. [NB I previously tipped this at about 12 on Ladbrokes each way]. Not much available. The odds are available, though, on Sportsbook. But I prefer the Exchange.

    That and Bottas each way on Ladbrokes at 16 (with boost) seem very good to me.

    Verstappen is 4.7 on the Exchange. But if the Renault engine is good enough, then Alonso at six times the odds must be value. If the Renault engine is not good enough we'll have either Mercedes dominance or a Mercedes/Ferrari duel, in which case Bottas each way (fifth the odds for top 3) is value.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:


    Heineken is headquartered in the Netherlands and Carlsberg in Denmark

    And a large brewing organisations brews its beer:

    a. At its headquarters or

    b. In its breweries?
  • Oh how Avant-garde...

    UK government funds Matthew Herbert's Brexit Big Band

    In a recent performance at The Barbican, in London, the percussion for one song was provided by ripping up copies of the Daily Mail, according to the Politico website.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41996872

    He will be burning a million quid next.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    You think the Heineken, Carlsberg, or Fosters you drink here come from Holland, Denmark or Australia? Crikey.

    All brewed under licence I believe. Syrups added to fizzy water.

  • Mr. JS, he is very old. Daft sod has had decades to plan his succession, get a son or wife or chosen heir in place.
  • AndyJS said:

    Can't quite believe Mugabe is under house arrest. It looked like it would never happen until very recently.

    Astonishing that something has actually gone right in the world, given the last few years...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981



    All brewed under licence I believe. Syrups added to fizzy water.

    Precisely. So it's a mirage to think all that EU lager we drink makes us an export market for EU lager brewers.
  • Astonishing that something has actually gone right in the world, given the last few years...
    I am not sure the bloke the army are trying to replace him with is exactly an angel.
  • I am not sure the bloke the army are trying to replace him with is exactly an angel.
    No doubt. Probably nothing will change, but there's a bit of hope.



  • All brewed under licence I believe. Syrups added to fizzy water.



    Bulmers, S&N?
  • Electrical firm Dyson is suing former chief executive Max Conze for allegedly leaking company secrets and using company resources for his own benefit.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42001793
  • No doubt. Probably nothing will change, but there's a bit of hope.
    Cliffnotes...

    Known as "the crocodile" because this is the totem of his clan. His supporters are known as "Lacoste"

    Received military training in China and Egypt

    Tortured by Rhodesian forces after his "crocodile gang" staged attacks

    Helped direct Zimbabwe's 1970s war of independence

    Became the country's spymaster during the 1980s civil conflict, in which thousands of civilians were killed

    Seen as key link between army, intelligence agencies and Zanu-PF party

    Accused of masterminding attacks on opposition supporters after 2008 election

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-41995876

    The Daily Mail claim he was behind 20,000 deaths...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    F1: if you were thinking of backing Alonso for the title next year, the surprisingly long odds of 20 are now up on Betfair Exchange. Even with my anaemic account, I've put a little on. [NB I previously tipped this at about 12 on Ladbrokes each way]. Not much available. The odds are available, though, on Sportsbook. But I prefer the Exchange.

    That and Bottas each way on Ladbrokes at 16 (with boost) seem very good to me.

    Verstappen is 4.7 on the Exchange. But if the Renault engine is good enough, then Alonso at six times the odds must be value. If the Renault engine is not good enough we'll have either Mercedes dominance or a Mercedes/Ferrari duel, in which case Bottas each way (fifth the odds for top 3) is value.

    That all makes sense. If the Renault engine is both powerful and reliable then there could be four competitive constructors next year. Also don’t rule out Williams, they’ve got a new technical director in Paddy Lowe (poached from Mercedes at the start of this year) who will be designing their 2018 car.
  • This year alone, unemployment is reportedly at 94% and the banks are constantly running out of hard currency.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-41994362

    That is just utter nuts.
  • Mr. Sandpit, I think Williams will struggle to match Mercedes in aerodynamic terms. The regulations aren't changing wildly, and Stroll's rather hit-and-miss.

    I had, however, forgotten about Lowe. They should become more competitive, and we could see a very tasty Renault-Force India-Williams battle for best of the rest.

    Well. They won't be called Force India any more, but nobody knows (even them) what they're changing their name to.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited November 2017



    Bulmers, S&N?

    Heineken subsidiary. May actually show up in import/export figures because the apple juice concentrate is prolly shipped in from Poland or Romania, and they may export some of the finished product.
  • Mr. Urquhart, some years ago now, but I remember reading that Zimbabwe had life expectancy of 32/34 due to famine and rampant AIDS. At the same sort of time, interest rates were 65,000% and inflation was around six or seven figures.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    This year alone, unemployment is reportedly at 94% and the banks are constantly running out of hard currency.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-41994362

    That is just utter nuts.

    Because of Brexit, no doubt.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Roger said:

    There's a difference between the economic effects of an actual Brexit and the loss of confidence caused by the Brexit vote. The vote led to a 15% devaluation (the effects of which are just working their way through the system now) and the new reality we find ourselves in once we're outside. The smart money considers those effects to be somewhere between a difficult decade and third world status.

    You should try the third world for a year or two, I think you might notice the difference, and realise that you are talking out of your hat.
  • RobD said:

    Because of Brexit, no doubt.
    Obviously...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Mr. Urquhart, some years ago now, but I remember reading that Zimbabwe had life expectancy of 32/34 due to famine and rampant AIDS. At the same sort of time, interest rates were 65,000% and inflation was around six or seven figures.

    From a few years ago, a couple of Greenbacks got you one of these...
    image
  • Sandpit said:

    From a few years ago, a couple of Greenbacks got you one of these...
    image
    From the same link I gave below they said that Bitcoin is going for $14k a pop in Zimbabwe.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2017
    Sandpit said:

    From a few years ago, a couple of Greenbacks got you one of these...
    image
    My avatar is the Z$ 20 billion :)
  • Mr. Sandpit, it's really rather tragic.

    I do wonder if South Africa will go that route. From the little I've heard, attacks on white farmers there seem pretty commonplace.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2017
    Scott_P said:
    Crap Cohen...Failing....Sad....
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    Electrical firm Dyson is suing former chief executive Max Conze for allegedly leaking company secrets and using company resources for his own benefit.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42001793

    Nominative determinism.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The Commonwealth heads of states conference is in London next year. Huge opportunity for us to talk trade with our friends including Canada, Australia and New Zealand
    Yup. They will want to export their food and dairy products and our farmers will want more subsidy as they will not be able to compete.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2017

    Mr. Sandpit, it's really rather tragic.

    I do wonder if South Africa will go that route. From the little I've heard, attacks on white farmers there seem pretty commonplace.

    Every South African I have talked to over the past 2-3 years says it is going to hell in a hand basket. Violent crime and corruption is so rampant, it makes doing any sort of business very dangerous and really not worth the risk.

    What country can thrive under those sort of conditions, let alone one that already has massive poverty, etc etc etc.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    surbiton said:

    Yup. They will want to export their food and dairy products and our farmers will want more subsidy as they will not be able to compete.
    NZ farmers managed just fine without any subsidies.
  • Mr. Urquhart, not to mention the ANC's declining vote share may lead to political ructions sooner or later.

    Anyway, must be off.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    OUR Commonwealth countries???
    That was not a typo. He means the "old" [ polite for "white" ] Commonwealth countries.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    NZ farmers managed just fine without any subsidies.
    Ours can't.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    My avatar is the Z$ 20 billion :)
    So it is! :)
  • surbiton said:

    That was not a typo. He means the "old" [ polite for "white" ] Commonwealth countries.
    Just retract that remark - unacceptable
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,458

    I think we all have a good idea what this is about. Who needs enemies when the bigmouth blond buffoon is your friend?
    Johnny English 3 is coming out in the New Year. I worry that Boris hasn't made parodies of the Foreign Office redundant
  • Surbiton the Emma Dent Coad of PB.
  • Surbiton the Emma Dent Coad of PB.

    I am appalled by his crass remark - he is out of order in a big way
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    edited November 2017
    RobD said:

    NZ farmers managed just fine without any subsidies.
    Yeah, with a massive depreciation of the NZ dollar from 1973 to the mid-1980s (over 70%).
    edit: against USD that is.
  • Looks as if Chester is in for a bonus booze bonanza as Wales follows Scotland with minimum alcohol pricing
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    NZ farmers managed just fine without any subsidies.
    If "managing just fine" encompasses being the most suicide-prone business sector in the most suicide-prone country in the world, they did.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537
    On the topic of military coups, my geography tutor at university once said:

    "Ah yes, Equitorial Guinea. Just about the only place on the planet that would be better off with Mark Thatcher in charge."
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Looks as if Chester is in for a bonus booze bonanza as Wales follows Scotland with minimum alcohol pricing

    And lucky old Bristol.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2017

    Looks as if Chester is in for a bonus booze bonanza as Wales follows Scotland with minimum alcohol pricing

    Coming soon booze cruises to Severn Beach and Avonmouth....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Every South African I have talked to over the past 2-3 years says it is going to hell in a hand basket. Violent crime and corruption is so rampant, it makes doing any sort of business very dangerous and really not worth the risk.

    What country can thrive under those sort of conditions, let alone one that already has massive poverty, etc etc etc.
    71 farm murders last year.

    https://www.enca.com/south-africa/map-farm-murders-across-sa

    It does need to be in the context that RSA has had a phenomenal rate of violent crime for years, and not just in rural areas.

    Each SA president does seem worse than the last, but on the other hand it is a democracy and does have a dynamic business economy.

    I don't see it going the way of Zim, but when there it is important to always be aware of surroundings and people. There are a lot of desperate people with firearms and nothing to lose.

    Great scenery, wildlife, culture and hospitality though. It really is a world in one country.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    And lucky old Bristol.
    Just as the tolls are going from the Severn crossings
  • Just as the tolls are going from the Severn crossings
    If I remember correctly there are a number of massive supermarkets and Cash n Carry type operators on the stretch of the M5 west of Bristol. They are going to be in for a bumper old time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,553
    tlg86 said:

    On the topic of military coups, my geography tutor at university once said:

    "Ah yes, Equitorial Guinea. Just about the only place on the planet that would be better off with Mark Thatcher in charge."

    I doubt if you could say that with a straight face even of Venezuela or Somalia.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    geoffw said:

    Yeah, with a massive depreciation of the NZ dollar from 1973 to the mid-1980s (over 70%).
    edit: against USD that is.
    NZ farm subsidies went in the mid eighties as I recall, as part of Rogernomics.

    As a country where the economy is based on agriculture and tourism it was absurd to tax producers to subsidise producers. NZ also has possoble the best agricultural land and climate in the world. What works for them may not work for our farmers.
  • Just as the tolls are going from the Severn crossings
    On a wider point, as the Scots and the Welsh assemblies gain devolved tax raising powers, real tax competition will take place between England, Scotland and Wales
  • If I remember correctly there are a number of massive supermarkets and Cash n Carry type operators on the stretch of the M5 west of Bristol. They are going to be in for a bumper old time.
    The border regions of Scotland and Wales will have a bumper time unless England follows
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    surbiton said:

    Ours can't.
    Is this inverse exceptionalism?
  • The border regions of Scotland and Wales will have a bumper time unless England follows
    And England becomes a tax haven from Scotland and Wales !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537
    ydoethur said:

    I doubt if you could say that with a straight face even of Venezuela or Somalia.
    This was back in 07ish so before Venezuela went tits up, but I agree that he was exaggerating.

    One thing he did call right was the political talent of one of his former pupils, our current PM:

    "She was a very nice girl, but I don't think much of her as a politician."
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    NZ farm subsidies went in the mid eighties as I recall, as part of Rogernomics.

    As a country where the economy is based on agriculture and tourism it was absurd to tax producers to subsidise producers. NZ also has possoble the best agricultural land and climate in the world. What works for them may not work for our farmers.
    You are right.
  • surbiton said:

    Ours can't.
    So be it. Sink or swim.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,674
    edited November 2017

    You need an atlas.

    Since how long has Spain been in North West Europe?
    Spain, 1981.

    (well, Spain does have an Atlantic coastline :) )

    (and Berlin, 1944, that was more Central Europe than NW)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    So be it. Sink or swim.
    And if they sink, we eat ...?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Ishmael_Z said:

    And if they sink, we eat ...?
    The imports that made them sink?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537
    @AlastairMeeks - Oh dear. That looks like it's burning on the inside rather than the outside, unless it's round the other side of the building.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    edited November 2017
    tlg86 said:

    @AlastairMeeks - Oh dear. That looks like it's burning on the inside rather than the outside, unless it's round the other side of the building.

    Not on the news channels

    Edited - it's not in London is it otherwise it would be all over the media
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    The imports that made them sink?
    Yum, and how sustainable!
  • Edge of West Belfast? Fire looks almost as bad as Grenfell.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,537

    Not on the news channels
    Fingers crossed that as it's early evening everyone can get out okay.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The border regions of Scotland and Wales will have a bumper time unless England follows
    We really shouldn't encourage alcoholics road trips.

    In pracice it is only the cheap gutrot that will be affected, the 8 Ace.

    It will be interesting to see the effect on public health.


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    edited November 2017

    We really shouldn't encourage alcoholics road trips.

    In pracice it is only the cheap gutrot that will be affected, the 8 Ace.

    It will be interesting to see the effect on public health.


    It was the Scots Whisky Assoc who took it to the high court.

    And you will not stop anyone seeking a bargain by moralising

    And it is suggested a rise of £4 on a bottle of spirits
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234
    Wonder if Beijing is involved in the Zimbabwe coup in some shape or form.
  • tlg86 said:

    Fingers crossed that as it's early evening everyone can get out okay.
    Seems under control and everyone evacuated thankfully
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    That fire doesn’t look good. Pray that everyone got out, at least it’s not in the middle of the night.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    It was the Scots Whisky Assoc who took it to the high court.

    And you will not stop anyone seeking a bargain by moralising

    And it is suggested a rise of £4 on a bottle of spirits
    I dont believe that it will have the effect intended, but will wait for the results.

    We shouldn't encourage undermining of devolved governments policy though.
  • I dont believe that it will have the effect intended, but will wait for the results.

    We shouldn't encourage undermining of devolved governments policy though.
    Why
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    It was the Scots Whisky Assoc who took it to the high court.

    And you will not stop anyone seeking a bargain by moralising

    And it is suggested a rise of £4 on a bottle of spirits
    The rise is only afecting the bottom end. Better whisky will be the same price.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Why
    Because England should be a good neighbour.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    First vote today:

    295 - 311. A bit closer than yesterday.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955

    The rise is only afecting the bottom end. Better whisky will be the same price.
    The price of more expensive brands will rise precisely because they will need to differentiate their product, otherwise people will think it's "only as good" as the cheap stuff. Unfortunately that's how psychology works.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    Because England should be a good neighbour.
    Like Scotland is with their tuition fee policy?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    MikeL said:

    First vote today:

    295 - 311. A bit closer than yesterday.

    What amendment was this?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,234

    The rise is only afecting the bottom end. Better whisky will be the same price.
    Not strictly true. Morrisons has a two for £22 offer on at the moment. If one was to fulfill it with 2 bottles of Bacardi then that is 525 ml of alcohol which will have a minimum price of £26.25 under Scottish proposals
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    I see the Amber Rudd cheerleaders are out.She could only be on a zero hours contract because of the size of her majority in Hastings.The way it is heading she's a gonna at the next GE.Rudd would only provide a short-term palliative to the needs of the nation,or the fundamental systemic problems of the Conservative party on the basis of age demographics,etc etc.Mr Corbyn is ready to serve.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Pulpstar said:

    Not strictly true. Morrisons has a two for £22 offer on at the moment. If one was to fulfill it with 2 bottles of Bacardi then that is 525 ml of alcohol which will have a minimum price of £26.25 under Scottish proposals
    Interesting definition of whisky you've got there ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    I am not sure the bloke the army are trying to replace him with is exactly an angel.
    He's got a horrible record. But sometimes people with horrible records turn out to be pragmatic leaders.
This discussion has been closed.