politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the dramatic events in Harare

Poor Grace Mugabe

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/930757409194348544

Was surprised to see that Corbyn still hasn't managed to pull ahead in latest You Gov poll, after 2 Cabinet Ministers leave a weak Prime Minister's government, wall to wall headlines & a BBC helicopter chase.

https://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/930752043823910912

The excellent news that the bonkers Mugabe has been removed is somewhat tempered by his proposed replacement managing to be worse. Somehow.

HHemmelig said:

From previous thread

HHemmelig said:

anothernick said:

TOPPING said:

Nah.

Many people were on the fence previously, mainly as a function of not giving too much of a fuck about it.

Which is why a reversal of the process, if and when it happens, will not cause the sky to fall in or threaten the future of democracy - most people do not feel strongly about the issue either way. I work in a non-political environment and it hardly ever comes up in office conversation. At board level people are very worried but everyone else is much more interested in Strictly. Brexit has not impacted. Yet.

I had a meeting with the European Commission in Brussels on Monday. Though about a dry and mostly unrelated issue (future framework for assessing dumping of steel), it was with officials from the trade directorate who are therefore probably quite clued up about what's going on in Brexit talks. The overwhelming sense I got was that there's no expectation of Brexit happening in any meaningful sense. If not a total reversal then they may be expecting some kind of Brexit in name only. Much as William Glenn is ridiculed on here, it suggests he may be correct that the government in private is preparing for the mother of all back tracks.

Not really news to me. Let's hope May is ousted and someone who actually believes in leaving (not Boris) replaces her.

FPT:

CarlottaVance said:

Rising demand and a decline in milk production has led to a doubling in the price of the dairy spread this year. French bakeries want to raise the price of pastries, brioches and croissants that are dependent on butter, while the chief executive of Arla, the company behind the Anchor and Lurpak dairy brands, last week warned UK consumers that there would not be enough butter at Christmas.

Bizarrely, living as I do 7000 miles or so away from France, this has been noticed here as well. There is an excellent French bakery about 200 yds from my house, run by an expat French chef who typically, and magnificently, refuses to compromise his standards and still imports his butter from France for the croissant, because it is the only one which gives him the quality he wants. Even with the doubling of the price of his butter, and the attendant price hike for the finished product I still pay about £1.20 for it, which although a substantial amount in the local economy, is probably less than I would pay in England!

Luckyguy1983 said:

I don't think anyone will be sad to see Mugabe go, but the new guy doesn't sound much better.

I tweeted earlier that military dictatorship would still be a step up from Mugabe.

One has to eat one's words sometimes.

Being generous, like is the only way to save/bookmark something on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/930757946614730752

HHemmelig said:

From previous thread

HHemmelig said:

anothernick said:

TOPPING said:

Nah.

Many people were on the fence previously, mainly as a function of not giving too much of a fuck about it.

Which is why a reversal of the process, if and when it happens, will not cause the sky to fall in or threaten the future of democracy - most people do not feel strongly about the issue either way. I work in a non-political environment and it hardly ever comes up in office conversation. At board level people are very worried but everyone else is much more interested in Strictly. Brexit has not impacted. Yet.

I had a meeting with the European Commission in Brussels on Monday. Though about a dry and mostly unrelated issue (future framework for assessing dumping of steel), it was with officials from the trade directorate who are therefore probably quite clued up about what's going on in Brexit talks. The overwhelming sense I got was that there's no expectation of Brexit happening in any meaningful sense. If not a total reversal then they may be expecting some kind of Brexit in name only. Much as William Glenn is ridiculed on here, it suggests he may be correct that the government in private is preparing for the mother of all back tracks.

Thanks. Either it is as you suggest and the UK government is working on the mother of all climb-downs....or Brussels still doesn't believe it and we're heading for a train wreck of heroic proportions......

CarlottaVance said:

HHemmelig said:

From previous thread

HHemmelig said:

anothernick said:

TOPPING said:

Nah.

Many people were on the fence previously, mainly as a function of not giving too much of a fuck about it.

Which is why a reversal of the process, if and when it happens, will not cause the sky to fall in or threaten the future of democracy - most people do not feel strongly about the issue either way. I work in a non-political environment and it hardly ever comes up in office conversation. At board level people are very worried but everyone else is much more interested in Strictly. Brexit has not impacted. Yet.

I had a meeting with the European Commission in Brussels on Monday. Though about a dry and mostly unrelated issue (future framework for assessing dumping of steel), it was with officials from the trade directorate who are therefore probably quite clued up about what's going on in Brexit talks. The overwhelming sense I got was that there's no expectation of Brexit happening in any meaningful sense. If not a total reversal then they may be expecting some kind of Brexit in name only. Much as William Glenn is ridiculed on here, it suggests he may be correct that the government in private is preparing for the mother of all back tracks.

Thanks. Either it is as you suggest and the UK government is working on the mother of all climb-downs....or Brussels still doesn't believe it and we're heading for a train wreck of heroic proportions......

The latter. From our trade bodies, they say our EU allies cannot comprehend that a country/government would willingly do the damage of a hard/WTO Brexit

Oh well.....at least the murderous kleptocratic tyrant 'Uncle Bob' got an airport named after him.....6 days ago:

https://twitter.com/YLZANUPF1/status/928578054993203200

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/930757409194348544

I'd vote for a moderate Labour Party (anything right of Miliband) over the current Tories.
And I'm sure there are nominal Labour supporters who would vote for an unashamedly Cameroon Tory Party over current Labour.

The electorate is frozen by the current polarisation* of the main parties, with moderates/floaters on both sides afraid to vote for a minor party for fear of it letting their particular bête noire get into power**.

*frozen, polarisation, geddit?
**or into meaningful power in the Tory case.

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

HHemmelig said:

From previous thread

HHemmelig said:

anothernick said:

TOPPING said:

Nah.

Many people were on the fence previously, mainly as a function of not giving too much of a fuck about it.

Which is why a reversal of the process, if and when it happens, will not cause the sky to fall in or threaten the future of democracy - most people do not feel strongly about the issue either way. I work in a non-political environment and it hardly ever comes up in office conversation. At board level people are very worried but everyone else is much more interested in Strictly. Brexit has not impacted. Yet.

I had a meeting with the European Commission in Brussels on Monday. Though about a dry and mostly unrelated issue (future framework for assessing dumping of steel), it was with officials from the trade directorate who are therefore probably quite clued up about what's going on in Brexit talks. The overwhelming sense I got was that there's no expectation of Brexit happening in any meaningful sense. If not a total reversal then they may be expecting some kind of Brexit in name only. Much as William Glenn is ridiculed on here, it suggests he may be correct that the government in private is preparing for the mother of all back tracks.

Thanks. Either it is as you suggest and the UK government is working on the mother of all climb-downs....or Brussels still doesn't believe it and we're heading for a train wreck of heroic proportions......

The latter. From our trade bodies, they say our EU allies cannot comprehend that a country/government would willingly do the damage of a hard/WTO Brexit

That's foolish from their point of view - because all the 'Trade Deals' the EU has include access to the UK - a non-trivial market - without the UK all their trade deals have problems - some of which may be easier to resolve than others. Incompetence on one side of the channel, insouciance on the other will not lead to a happy ending - for either side....

Keith Barron dead. I never understood why Duty Free was as popular as it was.

Very interesting article from Martin Wolff on tech firms and the challenges they pose to the global economy and global regulation.

https://www.ft.com/content/45092c5c-c872-11e7-aa33-c63fdc9b8c6c

AlsoIndigo said:

FPT:

CarlottaVance said:

Rising demand and a decline in milk production has led to a doubling in the price of the dairy spread this year. French bakeries want to raise the price of pastries, brioches and croissants that are dependent on butter, while the chief executive of Arla, the company behind the Anchor and Lurpak dairy brands, last week warned UK consumers that there would not be enough butter at Christmas.

Bizarrely, living as I do 7000 miles or so away from France, this has been noticed here as well. There is an excellent French bakery about 200 yds from my house, run by an expat French chef who typically, and magnificently, refuses to compromise his standards and still imports his butter from France for the croissant, because it is the only one which gives him the quality he wants. Even with the doubling of the price of his butter, and the attendant price hike for the finished product I still pay about £1.20 for it, which although a substantial amount in the local economy, is probably less than I would pay in England!

Asda have lurpak on special offer so go and grab a bargain

logical_song said:

dr_spyn said:

If that's not a coup, I'm a Banana.

Good cartoon.

'Pipe' surely.

I believe the good Doctor is referring to a former President of Zimbabwe whose downfall was very in tune with the zeitgeist of late 2017.

Anorak said:

Keith Barron dead. I never understood why Duty Free was as popular as it was.

I heard an interview with the former British Consul in Malaga (?) He had to deal with this woman whose husband had dropped dead on holiday, ship his corpse home and so on. He was nonplussed when the woman asked if she could get her husband's duty free allowance as his body would be on the flight.

rkrkrk said:

Very interesting article from Martin Wolff on tech firms and the challenges they pose to the global economy and global regulation.

https://www.ft.com/content/45092c5c-c872-11e7-aa33-c63fdc9b8c6c

The world’s trading system was set up to deal with goods and can’t really deal with intangibles, it’s causing real problems as companies can base themselves wherever they like and sell internationally with little regulatory oversight.

Brexit is a huge opportunity for Britain on several fronts. We can lobby for reforms from the WTO with our seat back, outside the EU single market we will find it easier to force companies trading in the UK to register in the UK, and there’s also an opportunity to attract more companies to the UK with an internationally competitive corporate tax regime.

AlastairMeeks said:

logical_song said:

dr_spyn said:

If that's not a coup, I'm a Banana.

Good cartoon.

'Pipe' surely.

I believe the good Doctor is referring to a former President of Zimbabwe whose downfall was very in tune with the zeitgeist of late 2017.

One of my favourite newspaper headlines

'Man says he was sodomised by Banana'

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

logical_song said:

dr_spyn said:

If that's not a coup, I'm a Banana.

Good cartoon.

'Pipe' surely.

I believe the good Doctor is referring to a former President of Zimbabwe whose downfall was very in tune with the zeitgeist of late 2017.

One of my favourite newspaper headlines

'Man says he was sodomised by Banana'

I thought the headline was "Twelve Men sodomised by Banana."

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

logical_song said:

dr_spyn said:

If that's not a coup, I'm a Banana.

Good cartoon.

'Pipe' surely.

I believe the good Doctor is referring to a former President of Zimbabwe whose downfall was very in tune with the zeitgeist of late 2017.

One of my favourite newspaper headlines

'Man says he was sodomised by Banana'

I thought the headline was "Twelve Men sodomised by Banana."

That too.

Future Tory leader Tom Tugendhat up first at PMQs

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlsoIndigo said:

FPT:

CarlottaVance said:

Rising demand and a decline in milk production has led to a doubling in the price of the dairy spread this year. French bakeries want to raise the price of pastries, brioches and croissants that are dependent on butter, while the chief executive of Arla, the company behind the Anchor and Lurpak dairy brands, last week warned UK consumers that there would not be enough butter at Christmas.

Bizarrely, living as I do 7000 miles or so away from France, this has been noticed here as well. There is an excellent French bakery about 200 yds from my house, run by an expat French chef who typically, and magnificently, refuses to compromise his standards and still imports his butter from France for the croissant, because it is the only one which gives him the quality he wants. Even with the doubling of the price of his butter, and the attendant price hike for the finished product I still pay about £1.20 for it, which although a substantial amount in the local economy, is probably less than I would pay in England!

Asda have lurpak on special offer so go and grab a bargain

In view of Britains obesity epidemic, and world diabetes day yesterday, I think best to leave the Lurpack on the shelf.

Try oatmeal for breakfast made with water instead for breakfast instead

Porridge for breakfast then

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlsoIndigo said:

FPT:

CarlottaVance said:

Rising demand and a decline in milk production has led to a doubling in the price of the dairy spread this year. French bakeries want to raise the price of pastries, brioches and croissants that are dependent on butter, while the chief executive of Arla, the company behind the Anchor and Lurpak dairy brands, last week warned UK consumers that there would not be enough butter at Christmas.

Bizarrely, living as I do 7000 miles or so away from France, this has been noticed here as well. There is an excellent French bakery about 200 yds from my house, run by an expat French chef who typically, and magnificently, refuses to compromise his standards and still imports his butter from France for the croissant, because it is the only one which gives him the quality he wants. Even with the doubling of the price of his butter, and the attendant price hike for the finished product I still pay about £1.20 for it, which although a substantial amount in the local economy, is probably less than I would pay in England!

Asda have lurpak on special offer so go and grab a bargain

In view of Britains obesity epidemic, and world diabetes day yesterday, I think best to leave the Lurpack on the shelf.

Try oatmeal for breakfast made with water instead for breakfast instead

Sounds like the old joke.

Patient: Doctor Doctor I want to live to 140!
Doctor: Well don't drink, don't smoke, dont eat rich foods and don't have sex.
Patient: Will that make me live to 140 ?
Doctor: No, but it will certainly feel like it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Future Tory leader Tom Tugendhat up first at PMQs

Mixed up debt and deficit before correcting himself.

IanB2 said:

david_herdson said:

How many armed coups have ever made things better? it must be a short list, certainly compared against those which didn't.

The one that put Catherine the Great in power, perhaps? And the one that overthrew Ceausescu.

And, despite the manifest failings of the current regime, Rwanda.

In Zimbabwe's case, it just seems to be one shit deposing another....

HHemmelig said:

anothernick said:

TOPPING said:

Nah.

Many people were on the fence previously, mainly as a function of not giving too much of a fuck about it.

Which is why a reversal of the process, if and when it happens, will not cause the sky to fall in or threaten the future of democracy - most people do not feel strongly about the issue either way. I work in a non-political environment and it hardly ever comes up in office conversation. At board level people are very worried but everyone else is much more interested in Strictly. Brexit has not impacted. Yet.

I had a meeting with the European Commission in Brussels on Monday. Though about a dry and mostly unrelated issue (future framework for assessing dumping of steel), it was with officials from the trade directorate who are therefore probably quite clued up about what's going on in Brexit talks. The overwhelming sense I got was that there's no expectation of Brexit happening in any meaningful sense. If not a total reversal then they may be expecting some kind of Brexit in name only. Much as William Glenn is ridiculed on here, it suggests he may be correct that the government in private is preparing for the mother of all back tracks.

Or alternatively, that the EU is deeply deluded about where British politics is. May could not sell backing out of Brexit without leaving her party and doing a deal with those on the other side of the House, as I said at the weekend.

Good line not Labour enough...

May seems to have got back some confidence.

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlsoIndigo said:

FPT:

CarlottaVance said:

Rising demand and a decline in milk production has led to a doubling in the price of the dairy spread this year. French bakeries want to raise the price of pastries, brioches and croissants that are dependent on butter, while the chief executive of Arla, the company behind the Anchor and Lurpak dairy brands, last week warned UK consumers that there would not be enough butter at Christmas.

Bizarrely, living as I do 7000 miles or so away from France, this has been noticed here as well. There is an excellent French bakery about 200 yds from my house, run by an expat French chef who typically, and magnificently, refuses to compromise his standards and still imports his butter from France for the croissant, because it is the only one which gives him the quality he wants. Even with the doubling of the price of his butter, and the attendant price hike for the finished product I still pay about £1.20 for it, which although a substantial amount in the local economy, is probably less than I would pay in England!

Asda have lurpak on special offer so go and grab a bargain

In view of Britains obesity epidemic, and world diabetes day yesterday, I think best to leave the Lurpack on the shelf.

Try oatmeal for breakfast made with water instead for breakfast instead

Consumption of fat, especially relatively healthy fat like butter, has nothing to do with diabetes. Given that fat actually slows the rate of carbohydrate absorption, your watery porridge will spike your blood sugar more than if you melted a knob of butter in it.

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Future Tory leader Tom Tugendhat up first at PMQs

Mixed up debt and deficit before correcting himself.

Oh dear.

He's ruined his chances with the membership, incidentally, by putting his head above t'parapet.

IanB2 said:

david_herdson said:

How many armed coups have ever made things better? it must be a short list, certainly compared against those which didn't.

The one that put Catherine the Great in power, perhaps? And the one that overthrew Ceausescu. And the RPF during the Rwanda genocide.

Italy 1943 and Egypt, a couple of years ago. I'd view the RPF as a successful revolt, rather than a coup, though.

Even demolishing him on the NHS - who would have thought it

https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/930769688644202496

IanB2 said:

david_herdson said:

How many armed coups have ever made things better? it must be a short list, certainly compared against those which didn't.

The one that put Catherine the Great in power, perhaps? And the one that overthrew Ceausescu. And the RPF during the Rwanda genocide.

Catherine II was one I had on my list.I'm disallowing Romania though as that was a revolution, led by the people, rather than a coup (though it was enabled by the security forces siding with the people rather than the president). I'd not count Rwanda either, as the RPF cleared up a civil war rather than simply transferred power from one elite to another - though I'd agree that in terms of 'governments coming to power through violence', the RPF have done an unusually good job.

rottenborough said:

Jezza now moved on to UC.

And he's flat on it and she's kicking his arse.

Corbyn getting a shellacking here.

Incoming to Corbyn on tax havens

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/930772252060192768

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

How many armed coups have ever made things better? it must be a short list, certainly compared against those which didn't.

Suggestion, given your interest in British history: the Glorious Revolution of 1688? More recently the 1974 Carnation Revolution in Portugal that ushered in democracy for that country. But rare.

Suggesting the Glorious revolution is stretching the definition of a coup, given that it was an invasion followed by a sustained military campaign. But if it is allowed, despite that, then yes.

If we're looking at British/English examples, probably James I is a better case. He didn't have legal title and was never named heir but his consolidation of power (via Robert Cecil and others) on Elizabeth I's death was so effective that few ever noticed. The alternative would almost certainly have involved some, and quite possibly a great deal of, bloodshed.

Maybot has had a full reboot.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/930772522211135488

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is a Cameronesque performance at PMQs by Mrs May.

Can you repeat that

HYUFD said:

felix said:

fpt
Labour and Tories both on 41% in latest Guardian/ICM poll

And here are the latest ICM state-of-the-party polling figures.

Labour: 41% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM three weeks ago)

Conservatives: 41% (down 1)

Lib Dems: 7% (no change)

Ukip: 4% (up 1)

Greens: 2% (no change)

Guardian

On those numbers it would be Tories 304 and Labour 276 so Tories would still be largest party surprisingly despite their abysmal few weeks. Labour would likely need SNP +LD+PC+Green support to form a government and have a majority in Parliament

New boundaries:

Con 290
Lab 251
LD 7
Green 1
SNP 32
PC 2

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=41&LAB=41&LIB=7&UKIP=4&Green=2&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017nb

HYUFD said:

felix said:

fpt
Labour and Tories both on 41% in latest Guardian/ICM poll

And here are the latest ICM state-of-the-party polling figures.

Labour: 41% (down 1 from Guardian/ICM three weeks ago)

Conservatives: 41% (down 1)

Lib Dems: 7% (no change)

Ukip: 4% (up 1)

Greens: 2% (no change)

Guardian

On those numbers it would be Tories 304 and Labour 276 so Tories would still be largest party surprisingly despite their abysmal few weeks. Labour would likely need SNP +LD+PC+Green support to form a government and have a majority in Parliament

SNP + LD should be enough, shouldn't it?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/930772712234070016?s=17

Ishmael_Z said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theresa on good form today

She sure as hell is - storming away.

I suspect they've kept this week's edition of Private Eye away from her.....