politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Tory plotters wanting to oust May need have no worries

https://twitter.com/htscotpol/status/930030349551374336

rkrkrk said:

Could be.
But if the govt doesn't have the votes to pass it... that will be quite awkward for TM won't it?
Or will it let her claim there really are saboteurs?

It would show that Parliament really is Sovereign.

The Brexiteers would be cheering that. Right?

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: Stand out stat, there are ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY SIX pages of amendments to the withdrawal bill... gulp

And this is the heart of May's problem - she doesn't have a working majority. The only issue of any real import in parliament is Brexit and she will be defeated if she tries to drive through whatever it is she's judged as the best hope to keep her in office.

She won't be able to abstain on these ones and declare victory. I remember the soap-opera feel of the Maastrict treaty through the Commons, but in the 20+ years since the audience has hardened and wants more bodies on the floor nudity and unbelievably bizarre plot twists. I expect we'll get all of this and more

FrancisUrquhart said:

How brain dead are some people?

https://order-order.com/2017/11/13/kensington-tories-ask-voters-important-grenfell/

You really cannot believe these cretins can you

DecrepitJohnL said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, indeed. It's a very disturbing state of affairs when people legitimately have questions about whether they can trust the police.

A lot of people will be saying, welcome to our world. Orgreave, Hillsborough, stop and search. Theresa May said something about it once.

In sick lefty world, I assume that means it's a-okay?

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'd forgotten how well Gordon Brown photographed.

https://twitter.com/CllrTomHayes/status/930032159750017026

Is he... dead?

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'd forgotten how well Gordon Brown photographed.

twitter.com/CllrTomHayes/status/930032159750017026

Wonder how his book sales went? I reckon will be in the 99p bargain bin in a week or two.

Rhubarb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'd forgotten how well Gordon Brown photographed.

https://twitter.com/CllrTomHayes/status/930032159750017026

Is he... dead?

He had been employed on the task against his free will

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ferfuxsake

http s://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/930031292023963649

You might like the following from parish council-land:
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/tyson-fury-gypsy-king-cambridgeshire-13884321

One of my colleagues is from Northern Ireland, he's been pretty much channelling the wife of Corry Evans when it comes to Romanians and gypsies this morning.

@elashton: PM spox on Zaghari-Ratcliffe: “The government’s position on this is very clear. She was there on holiday.” Won’t comment specifically on Gove’s remarks yesterday

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Starmer struggling on Corbyn receiving money from Iran.

It does raise the issue as to when a possible PM has been paid money by a foreign power or it's state sponsored media.

Also has Corbyn been challenged on his connections with Iran and his meetings,

Seems as ever that Guido had info on this

Seems that CCHQ doesn't work weekends but has belatedly decided Boris and Gove need a smokescreen.

I do not think it is a smokescreen to be fair. Corbyn's involvement with the Iranian regime is of national interest and Guido alleges.

He received £20,000 for appearing on Iranian state tv even after it had filmed and broadcast a torture victims confession

Agreed with a Press TV caller that Britains national broadcaster were 'Zionist liars'

Attended the regimes Al-Quds Day event calling for the 'destuction of Israel'

Claims Iran does not want nukes

And more.

He needs to answer these allegations

And all of this was true last week and the week before so what has changed? Oh yes, CCHQ needs to distract attention from Gove and Boris.

No - Corbyn has asked for Johnson's resignation and that is what has changed. Pleased you accept the truth of Guido's allegations

You missed Gove on telly yesterday?

No I listened to Gove yesterday and he was fine.

I saw him on Marr, which one did you see him on? Must have got his story right by then....

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Good luck with the OP Big_G!

Thanks so much. Hope TM starts getting some good luck for a change.

She is meeting European and UK business leaders in no 10 today and this must open a window of opportunity for her to persuade them to put equal pressure on the EU to resolve issues and move onto trade

Your optimism regarding TMay is admirable but, I fear, sadly misplaced. I suspect when historians look back on this period they will view it as one of the most inept examples of government in our nation's history.

However, on a more positive note, we still have a world class health service and I wish you every good fortune with your op!

I agree about historians likely view but it will almost certainly condemn all politicians on all sides to singularly fail to come together in the nations interest. I am sure history will be very unkind to TM but she has made some big mistakes and unless she is able to resolve Brexit she will not be able to recover her previous reputation

Always, when governments are up the proverbial creek without any form of propulsion, then the clarion call to all come together in the countries interest, shows that they really have lost it.....

There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

OchEye said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Starmer struggling on Corbyn receiving money from Iran.

It does raise the issue as to when a possible PM has been paid money by a foreign power or it's state sponsored media.

Also has Corbyn been challenged on his connections with Iran and his meetings,

Seems as ever that Guido had info on this

Seems that CCHQ doesn't work weekends but has belatedly decided Boris and Gove need a smokescreen.

I do not think it is a smokescreen to be fair. Corbyn's involvement with the Iranian regime is of national interest and Guido alleges.

He received £20,000 for appearing on Iranian state tv even after it had filmed and broadcast a torture victims confession

Agreed with a Press TV caller that Britains national broadcaster were 'Zionist liars'

Attended the regimes Al-Quds Day event calling for the 'destuction of Israel'

Claims Iran does not want nukes

And more.

He needs to answer these allegations

And all of this was true last week and the week before so what has changed? Oh yes, CCHQ needs to distract attention from Gove and Boris.

No - Corbyn has asked for Johnson's resignation and that is what has changed. Pleased you accept the truth of Guido's allegations

You missed Gove on telly yesterday?

No I listened to Gove yesterday and he was fine.

I saw him on Marr, which one did you see him on? Must have got his story right by then....

Marr and in the context of the interview it was not an issue

stevef said:

There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

You would have more credence ,if you showed us a quote of your prediction of the GE in June 17.Dated before June 8th.

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

You would have more credence ,if you showed us a quote of your prediction of the GE in June 17.Dated before June 8th.

The point is valid though. Corbyn is the issue for labour and it seems he is not going to be replaced anytime soon

TGOHF said:

stevef said:

There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

Will be interesting to see how many votes Labour get with Corbyn in an election where he has a chance of winning rather than the free pass many thought the 2017 GE was.

He has no answers to his Iranian connections which have surfaced over the weekend

https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/929897324985405445

Nicki Morgan on BBCDP effectively joining Soubry and calling for Boris to resign ("should be considering his position" followed by a set of scathing comments about his conduct)

stevef said:

There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

Corbyn may not win next time, the Tories could even win most seats but provided he has enough support from the SNP and LDs when combined with Labour to get over the 326 MPs needed for a majority in Parliament even if he does not win an overall majority Corbyn could for a minority government.

It may become the worst government in our post war history but that would not stop Corbyn leading it.

Yorkcity said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

You would have more credence ,if you showed us a quote of your prediction of the GE in June 17.Dated before June 8th.

The point is valid though. Corbyn is the issue for labour and it seems he is not going to be replaced anytime soon

He was the main issue at the last GE for Labour , many on here me included said he would take Labour to a calamitous defeat .On here discussions were Labour were finished .Now a bit of reflection that their preconceived opinions might just be wrong would be nice to read for a change .Rather than tell us the same thing they did in April 17 then regurgitate for 2022.

But why are laboir not miles ahead in the polls - if they had a half decent leader they would be

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/929897324985405445

Not prohibited, actionable under certain conditions.

stevef said:

There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

yebbut...

That is an I wouldn't have started from here point.

If Jezza hadn't been leader then whoever it had been would have campaigned strongly for Remain, the Referendum would have been Remain, there would have been no GE, and we would all be throwing our hands up in horror at the pasty tax debacle today.

I maintain though that a fundamental issue for Labour is that people voted for them, despite Jezza, because he had no way on earth he would be PM.

That will not apply next time.

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

You would have more credence ,if you showed us a quote of your prediction of the GE in June 17.Dated before June 8th.

The point is valid though. Corbyn is the issue for labour and it seems he is not going to be replaced anytime soon

He was the main issue at the last GE for Labour , many on here me included said he would take Labour to a calamitous defeat .On here discussions were Labour were finished .Now a bit of reflection that their preconceived opinions might just be wrong would be nice to read for a change .Rather than tell us the same thing they did in April 17 then regurgitate for 2022.

But why are laboir not miles ahead in the polls - if they had a half decent leader they would be

That is very rare a mere 5 months after a general election.

True.

The best comparison is 1992, I think. A significant period of Tory government, but a relatively new leader.

It took about 6-7 months for Labour (now under Smith) to achieve double digit leads.

That means the New Year for Corbyn (no new leader there of course).

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

You would have more credence ,if you showed us a quote of your prediction of the GE in June 17.Dated before June 8th.

The point is valid though. Corbyn is the issue for labour and it seems he is not going to be replaced anytime soon

He was the main issue at the last GE for Labour , many on here me included said he would take Labour to a calamitous defeat .On here discussions were Labour were finished .Now a bit of reflection that their preconceived opinions might just be wrong would be nice to read for a change .Rather than tell us the same thing they did in April 17 then regurgitate for 2022.

But why are laboir not miles ahead in the polls - if they had a half decent leader they would be

That is very rare a mere 5 months after a general election.

True.

The best comparison is 1992, I think. A significant period of Tory government, but a relatively new leader.

It took about 6-7 months for Labour (now under Smith) to achieve double digit leads.

That means the New Year for Corbyn (no new leader there of course).

In Corbyn's defence he has no 'Black Wednesday' moment to get a real boost from.

Yet.

I would look at it like this.

Winning governments retain a certain level of confidence, for a while. Backers can't justify switching.

Then something comes along - Black Wednesday, the Omnishambles, etc, when the penny drops. To a very large extent, the drop itself is inevitable, it's the timing that's up for grabs.

justin124 said:

stevef said:

There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

.

Wrong ! If the Tories were to lose 7 by elections support from the DUP would no longer be sufficient to prop them up..

Losing 7 in a modern parliament is going some. MPs don't drop like they used to and there is no way on earth any tory MP who is sitting on anything less than a 20,000 majority will be made High Commissioner of Wheresthatplace.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

You would have more credence ,if you showed us a quote of your prediction of the GE in June 17.Dated before June 8th.

The point is valid though. Corbyn is the issue for labour and it seems he is not going to be replaced anytime soon

He was the main issue at the last GE for Labour , many on here me included said he would take Labour to a calamitous defeat .On here discussions were Labour were finished .Now a bit of reflection that their preconceived opinions might just be wrong would be nice to read for a change .Rather than tell us the same thing they did in April 17 then regurgitate for 2022.

But why are laboir not miles ahead in the polls - if they had a half decent leader they would be

That is very rare a mere 5 months after a general election.

True.

The best comparison is 1992, I think. A significant period of Tory government, but a relatively new leader.

It took about 6-7 months for Labour (now under Smith) to achieve double digit leads.

That means the New Year for Corbyn (no new leader there of course).

In Corbyn's defence he has no 'Black Wednesday' moment to get a real boost from.

Yet.

I would look at it like this.

Winning governments retain a certain level of confidence, for a while. Backers can't justify switching.

Then something comes along - Black Wednesday, the Omnishambles, etc, when the penny drops. To a very large extent, the drop itself is inevitable, it's the timing that's up for grabs.

I think I can guess what this government's version of these events might be.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Emma Dent Coad really is an odious piece of work isn't she?

who?

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Emma Dent Coad really is an odious piece of work isn't she?

who?

https://order-order.com/2017/11/13/labour-mp-black-tory-candidate-is-token-ghetto-boy-and-scumbag/

@justin124

A week later, Gallup had Labour 22% ahead.

Both were outliers. At that point the real gap was teens.

Pulpstar said:

Dent-Coad's remarks could be construed as straight up racist. I think she's going to have to consider her position very shortly, and/or be suspended as per "Anne Marie Morris".

Can you imagine if a Tory MP for Kensington said a Black Labour candidate "wouldn't be welcome in South Ken" if they got elected???????

F1: couldn't get through on the site, trying via Twitter. Having a chat with a reasonable customer service person, having info given to another team (the customer service person can see where I'm coming from).

Have to walk the dog fairly shortly so may have to come back to it.

justin124 said:

rottenborough said:

I maintain though that a fundamental issue for Labour is that people voted for them, despite Jezza, because he had no way on earth he would be PM.

That will not apply next time.

rottenborough said:

I maintain though that a fundamental issue for Labour is that people voted for them, despite Jezza, because he had no way on earth he would be PM.

That will not apply next time.

But by the last week of the election campaign there were several polls pointing to a Hung Parliament - a big Tory win was no longer the certainty it had appeared a month earlier. Many people cast their votes on June 8th knowing that the result might be close.

Nah, we know that voters pay hardly any attention to the polls, it takes months for the political narrative to change because largely the voters only get interested in politics when they get in the car to drive to the polling station.

anothernick said:

rkrkrk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wrote this in August 2016, and it seems apt now.

Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

Nick Palmer comment on that thread also looks pretty good (abridged)

"As we're seeing in other countries, people don't always vote on a predictable left-right scale, and sometimes they vote for a style instead. I think he'll find it difficult to win a majority, but he has a style USP that his opponents generally lack which will make him do better than expected."

Corbyn's USP is that he is the anti-establishment candidate. And a large number of voters want to give the establishment a severe kick in the hind quarters.

Neither May nor any of her putative successors - except possibly JRM - could credibly present themselves as anti-establishment figures.

Lol - the son of a peer and editor of The Times, educated at Eton, millionaire from working in the City - is "anti-establishment" !?! I think you need a dictionary.

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Emma Dent Coad really is an odious piece of work isn't she?

who?

https://order-order.com/2017/11/13/labour-mp-black-tory-candidate-is-token-ghetto-boy-and-scumbag/

Labour is stuffed full of such lovely people these days.

IanB2 said:

anothernick said:

rkrkrk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wrote this in August 2016, and it seems apt now.

Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

Nick Palmer comment on that thread also looks pretty good (abridged)

"As we're seeing in other countries, people don't always vote on a predictable left-right scale, and sometimes they vote for a style instead. I think he'll find it difficult to win a majority, but he has a style USP that his opponents generally lack which will make him do better than expected."

Corbyn's USP is that he is the anti-establishment candidate. And a large number of voters want to give the establishment a severe kick in the hind quarters.

Neither May nor any of her putative successors - except possibly JRM - could credibly present themselves as anti-establishment figures.

Lol - the son of a peer and editor of The Times, educated at Eton, millionaire from working in the City - is "anti-establishment" !?! I think you need a dictionary.

Well the prep school educated and Shropshire manor house raised Corbyn is hardly anti establishment by back round either just by ideology like Mogg.

Davis, council house raised and state educated and son of a single mother, is more non establishment by background than both, if slightly more moderate by ideology

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Emma Dent Coad really is an odious piece of work isn't she?

who?

https://order-order.com/2017/11/13/labour-mp-black-tory-candidate-is-token-ghetto-boy-and-scumbag/

I'm only seeing one scumbag in that story....

Emma Dent Coad does come across as a thoroughly obnoxious person.

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Emma Dent Coad really is an odious piece of work isn't she?

who?

https://order-order.com/2017/11/13/labour-mp-black-tory-candidate-is-token-ghetto-boy-and-scumbag/

That minuted quote from the Housing and Property Scrutiny Committee that "Coucillor Dent Coad praised the refurbishment of Grenfell Tower which she felt showed the Council had listened to residents" is even more politically toxic though.

Pulpstar said:

Dent-Coad's remarks could be construed as straight up racist. I think she's going to have to consider her position very shortly, and/or be suspended as per "Anne Marie Morris".

http://emmadentcoad.blogspot.co.uk/2010/04/this-is-my-posh-voice-local-boy-done.html

Is the blog itself for people to decide for themselves.
I don't think it looks as bad as Guido makes out.

Quite why she decided to write that blog though I have no idea.

Emma Dent Coad might have missed this profile of Shaun Bailey in The Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2007/may/02/communities.conservativeparty1

"The 35-year-old Bailey wears many hats. He is a local, born and bred on the deprived estates of north Kensington."

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

anothernick said:

rkrkrk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wrote this in August 2016, and it seems apt now.

Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

Nick Palmer comment on that thread also looks pretty good (abridged)

"As we're seeing in other countries, people don't always vote on a predictable left-right scale, and sometimes they vote for a style instead. I think he'll find it difficult to win a majority, but he has a style USP that his opponents generally lack which will make him do better than expected."

Corbyn's USP is that he is the anti-establishment candidate. And a large number of voters want to give the establishment a severe kick in the hind quarters.

Neither May nor any of her putative successors - except possibly JRM - could credibly present themselves as anti-establishment figures.

Lol - the son of a peer and editor of The Times, educated at Eton, millionaire from working in the City - is "anti-establishment" !?! I think you need a dictionary.

Well the prep school educated and Shropshire manor house raised Corbyn is hardly anti establishment by back round either just by ideology like Mogg.

Davis, council house raised and state educated and son of a single mother, is more non establishment by background than both, if slightly more moderate by ideology

I'm not sure it is about being a member of the elite or not, it is about appearing like you are not a cookie cut member of the political class.

Trump was establishment: rich, well connected, dad was a major property developer, friends with Clintons and bankers etc etc. But he managed to appear as if he just walked out of a redneck bar somewhere in the swamps of Louisiana.

CD13 said:

Mr Observer,

' “If there are places where the role of the court will make it better or easier for us to have the right relationship in the future I would be open to that.”

Makes sense to me. '

I've read it several times and still not quite sure what he's saying. Is it ...

(a) If they find in our favour, we will accept it.
(b) if they find against us, we will accept it, and do what they want so as to gain goodwill.

How is that different to saying we will accept the decisions of a foreign court?

Mr G, Best wishes. Hopefully, you'll soon be back doing backward somersaults.

A bit like Labour when it comes to the EU.

This is the one area I find most difficult to understand about our EU negotiations.

In pretty much every treaty that we enter into, we accept binding dispute resolution. So, our membership of NATO leads us to accept rulings of the NATO court. Our membership of the International Telecoms Union binds us to accept the rulings of their dispute resolution mechanisms.

There is nothing unusual in us signing up to a foreign body for dispute resolution.

The question is one of scope. We are used, in the UK, the ECJ having the ability to have a major impact on domestic law. It needn't be like that. Theoretically, we could enter into a treaty with the EU that made us members of the European Medicines Agency, and meant that we accepted rulings of the ECJ in respect to medicines manufacture. The ECJ could rule on other stuff as they liked, but the treaties (and more importantly UK law) would simply not recognise them as having any impact on the UK.

I get the feeling the "no ECJ" rule was lazily tossed out, and now it can't be walked back.

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

anothernick said:

rkrkrk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wrote this in August 2016, and it seems apt now.

Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

Nick Palmer comment on that thread also looks pretty good (abridged)

"As we're seeing in other countries, people don't always vote on a predictable left-right scale, and sometimes they vote for a style instead. I think he'll find it difficult to win a majority, but he has a style USP that his opponents generally lack which will make him do better than expected."

Corbyn's USP is that he is the anti-establishment candidate. And a large number of voters want to give the establishment a severe kick in the hind quarters.

Neither May nor any of her putative successors - except possibly JRM - could credibly present themselves as anti-establishment figures.

Lol - the son of a peer and editor of The Times, educated at Eton, millionaire from working in the City - is "anti-establishment" !?! I think you need a dictionary.

Well the prep school educated and Shropshire manor house raised Corbyn is hardly anti establishment by back round either just by ideology like Mogg.

Davis, council house raised and state educated and son of a single mother, is more non establishment by background than both, if slightly more moderate by ideology

I'm not sure it is about being a member of the elite or not, it is about appearing like you are not a cookie cut member of the political class.

Trump was establishment: rich, well connected, dad was a major property developer, friends with Clintons and bankers etc etc. But he managed to appear as if he just walked out of a redneck bar somewhere in the swamps of Louisiana.

Which applies equally to Sanders, Corbyn and Rees Mogg but not May or Hillary