There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.
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Wrong ! If the Tories were to lose 7 by elections support from the DUP would no longer be sufficient to prop them up..
I guess chances of 15 tory MP's being recalled over sexual harassment or similar is an even slimmer chance. But would labour wait to see if 7 seats were lost or go for no confidence vote before by-elections?
But the no confidence vote would fail as long as the DUP support the Govt . After 7 by election losses that ceases to be true.
And how many by election losses have there been in the more than 5 months since the general election?
If there were one by election loss every six months it would take 42 months -3 and a half years before the government lost a vote of confidence.
And how many Tory by election losses have there been in the last 20 years -more or less than 7?
And how do you think the SNP would vote in a vote of confidence given that the SNP fears a wipeout in Scotland?
There wont be a general election until 2022, and then it will be 73 year old hard line Marxist Corbyn versus a much better organised Tory party fighting and going for the jugular for its very survival.
And all those older Tories who did not vote in 2017, beleiving that Corbyn was no threat will turn out in droves in 2022.
This article of faith amongst some that the SNP would support the Conservatives in a vote of confidence is truly the most bonkers PB memes of recent times.
Where would the SNP abstaining on a motion of no confidence sit on the scale of supporting Conservatives/supporting Labour/being irrelevent to Scotland?
Not going to happen. I wish I had the bankroll to take bets on this.
There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.
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Wrong ! If the Tories were to lose 7 by elections support from the DUP would no longer be sufficient to prop them up..
I guess chances of 15 tory MP's being recalled over sexual harassment or similar is an even slimmer chance. But would labour wait to see if 7 seats were lost or go for no confidence vote before by-elections?
But the no confidence vote would fail as long as the DUP support the Govt . After 7 by election losses that ceases to be true.
And how many by election losses have there been in the more than 5 months since the general election?
If there were one by election loss every six months it would take 42 months -3 and a half years before the government lost a vote of confidence.
And how many Tory by election losses have there been in the last 20 years -more or less than 7?
And how do you think the SNP would vote in a vote of confidence given that the SNP fears a wipeout in Scotland?
There wont be a general election until 2022, and then it will be 73 year old hard line Marxist Corbyn versus a much better organised Tory party fighting and going for the jugular for its very survival.
And all those older Tories who did not vote in 2017, beleiving that Corbyn was no threat will turn out in droves in 2022.
This article of faith amongst some that the SNP would support the Conservatives in a vote of confidence is truly the most bonkers PB memes of recent times.
Closely followed by by a semi religious belief in sublimated Irish desperation to rejoin the Union.
That's the really weird one. You'd have thought the last 100 years of Irish history would have given a hint as to how popular that idea might be in the Republic of Ireland.
I don't think anyone actually believes that one as they type it but they really do think the SNP will back the Cons.
The SNP dont have to take an official position to ensure the Tory survival.
All it has to do is to make sure that one or two of its crucial MPs in a vote of confidence are "ill", or have a "migraine" (a la Diane Abbott) or are held up in traffic, or are washing their hair that night.
There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.
.
Wrong ! If the Tories were to lose 7 by elections support from the DUP would no longer be sufficient to prop them up..
I guess chances of 15 tory MP's being recalled over sexual harassment or similar is an even slimmer chance. But would labour wait to see if 7 seats were lost or go for no confidence vote before by-elections?
But the no confidence vote would fail as long as the DUP support the Govt . After 7 by election losses that ceases to be true.
And how many by election losses have there been in the more than 5 months since the general election?
If there were one by election loss every six months it would take 42 months -3 and a half years before the government lost a vote of confidence.
And how many Tory by election losses have there been in the last 20 years -more or less than 7?
And how do you think the SNP would vote in a vote of confidence given that the SNP fears a wipeout in Scotland?
There wont be a general election until 2022, and then it will be 73 year old hard line Marxist Corbyn versus a much better organised Tory party fighting and going for the jugular for its very survival.
And all those older Tories who did not vote in 2017, beleiving that Corbyn was no threat will turn out in droves in 2022.
This article of faith amongst some that the SNP would support the Conservatives in a vote of confidence is truly the most bonkers PB memes of recent times.
Closely followed by by a semi religious belief in sublimated Irish desperation to rejoin the Union.
That's the really weird one. You'd have thought the last 100 years of Irish history would have given a hint as to how popular that idea might be in the Republic of Ireland.
I don't think anyone actually believes that one as they type it but they really do think the SNP will back the Cons.
The SNP dont have to take an official position to ensure the Tory survival.
All it has to do is to make sure that one or two of its crucial MPs in a vote of confidence are "ill", or have a "migraine" (a la Diane Abbott) or are held up in traffic, or are washing their hair that night.
In which case a further no confidence vote could be tabled a few days later!
I am sure that, given the will, the UK government could find plenty of scope for support for extra investment to support export orientated UK manufacturing by comparison to the absence of such support that we see at present (to the extent that the UK has gained a reputation as the least inclined of EU countries in terms of its willingness to test state aid rules to the limit). It doesn't have to be so blatant as to actually pay tariffs imposed by the EU, but something of a nature that will leave UK manufacturers quite content one way or another. So let's set aside £5bn for that. That then leaves a balance of £8bn out of the £13m tariff windfall. Add to that the £11bn or so of net UK payments we make annually to the EU and we're up to a £19bn total.
Or about £380m per week, as a totally uncommitted windfall available to the UK Exchequer. And with an EU so determined to push the UK down the path of a hard Brexit that it ends up without a penny in a divorce settlement.
Well, yes, sort-of. But those tariffs will be ultimately paid by British consumers. If the idea is to tax consumers more, we didn't need to leave the EU to do so: we could have simply bumped up VAT.
The two are not remotely comparable. Applying tariffs to EU goods will just put them on an equal footing with rest of the world goods. Whereas increasing VAT would increase the cost of all goods and services: domestic, EU and rest of the world.
If the EU doesn't want to be treated the same as the rest of the world it needs to give us a deal. Pretty simple really.
>>the Conservatives are loath to do anything that could prompt a second general election. >This, of course, is completely bogus and overlooks the legal mechanics of how general elections are now called.
A new leader would be under intense pressure because their Brexit vision has no general public mandate. Maybe they could tough this out, but maybe they couldn't. In the latter case, the above 'completely bogus' falls apart, doesn't it?
A new leader
a) gets a polling honeymoon. In which case Labour scuppers the GE.
b) gets no polling honeymoon. In which case the new PM scuppers the GE.
2017 is going to hang around PM's like a millstone for decades. They are going to have to be 30% ahead before they take a chance again...
Maybe no honeymoon or maybe brief. Anyway after honeymoon, if any, pressure due to no general public mandate on Brexit results in either general election they will lose or EU referendum which is taken. If this is lost, then I think they would need to call general election.
There is certainly a chance of a string of events that results in a general election.
There will come a time to cull May's leadership. We are not there yet, but EU talks fail or a success would trigger the timing being right to get replacement in position prior to next GE.
The 'completely bogus' is err exaggerated if not completely bogus.
2020: the Tories have lost 7 hypothetical by elections and there is a vote of confidence.
2 SNP MPs are absent. One has a migraine a la Diane Abbott, the other is held up in traffic.
Politics is Machiavellian. There are ways and means that the SNP can block an election.
I am afraid you are being a bit naive here. For such a key vote all MPs would be present. Votes of No Confidence can be tabled on a regular basis if necessary. Thatcher did it several times in the late 70s.
2 SNP MPs are absent. One has a migraine a la Diane Abbott, the other is held up in traffic.
That's 2 SNP MP's who don't mind losing their seat to Labour at the next election then.
For being ill or being help up in traffic? Elections dont work that way, and in any case it would be fear of losing their seats that would cause them to go absent in the first place.
There wont be a general election before 2022, the Tories wont lose 7 by elections before then, and when it comes -and I am a Labour voter - Corbyn will lose, lose big, and lose deservedly.
No politician in modern times has been more unfit to be prime minister than Jeremy Bernard Corbyn.
2 SNP MPs are absent. One has a migraine a la Diane Abbott, the other is held up in traffic.
That's 2 SNP MP's who don't mind losing their seat to Labour at the next election then.
For being ill or being help up in traffic? Elections dont work that way, and in any case it would be fear of losing their seats that would cause them to go absent in the first place.
There wont be a general election before 2022, the Tories wont lose 7 by elections before then, and when it comes -and I am a Labour voter - Corbyn will lose, lose big, and lose deservedly.
No politician in modern times has been more unfit to be prime minister than Jeremy Bernard Corbyn.
The average SNP voter would demand their MP crawl through glass to No Confidence vote the Tories.
EDIT: The average SNP voted being someone who voted Labour every election as recently as 4 years ago.
2 SNP MPs are absent. One has a migraine a la Diane Abbott, the other is held up in traffic.
That's 2 SNP MP's who don't mind losing their seat to Labour at the next election then.
For being ill or being help up in traffic? Elections dont work that way, and in any case it would be fear of losing their seats that would cause them to go absent in the first place.
There wont be a general election before 2022, the Tories wont lose 7 by elections before then, and when it comes -and I am a Labour voter - Corbyn will lose, lose big, and lose deservedly.
No politician in modern times has been more unfit to be prime minister than Jeremy Bernard Corbyn.
The average SNP voter would demand their MP crawl through glass to No Confidence vote the Tories.
EDIT: The average SNP voted being someone who voted Labour every election as recently as 4 years ago.
If Labour won every SNP seat, it would be in exactly the same arithmetical position in the House of Commons as it is today. Labour needs to win marginal seats from the Tories. It cant under Corbyn.
2 SNP MPs are absent. One has a migraine a la Diane Abbott, the other is held up in traffic.
That's 2 SNP MP's who don't mind losing their seat to Labour at the next election then.
For being ill or being help up in traffic? Elections dont work that way, and in any case it would be fear of losing their seats that would cause them to go absent in the first place.
There wont be a general election before 2022, the Tories wont lose 7 by elections before then, and when it comes -and I am a Labour voter - Corbyn will lose, lose big, and lose deservedly.
No politician in modern times has been more unfit to be prime minister than Jeremy Bernard Corbyn.
The average SNP voter would demand their MP crawl through glass to No Confidence vote the Tories.
EDIT: The average SNP voted being someone who voted Labour every election as recently as 4 years ago.
If Labour won every SNP seat, it would be in exactly the same arithmetical position in the House of Commons as it is today. Labour needs to win marginal seats from the Tories. It cant under Corbyn.
And? That has no relevance to whether the SNP would vote for a no confidence motion or not.
Comments
All it has to do is to make sure that one or two of its crucial MPs in a vote of confidence are "ill", or have a "migraine" (a la Diane Abbott) or are held up in traffic, or are washing their hair that night.
2 SNP MPs are absent. One has a migraine a la Diane Abbott, the other is held up in traffic.
Politics is Machiavellian. There are ways and means that the SNP can block an election.
If the EU doesn't want to be treated the same as the rest of the world it needs to give us a deal. Pretty simple really.
There is certainly a chance of a string of events that results in a general election.
There will come a time to cull May's leadership. We are not there yet, but EU talks fail or a success would trigger the timing being right to get replacement in position prior to next GE.
The 'completely bogus' is err exaggerated if not completely bogus.
There wont be a general election before 2022, the Tories wont lose 7 by elections before then, and when it comes -and I am a Labour voter - Corbyn will lose, lose big, and lose deservedly.
No politician in modern times has been more unfit to be prime minister than Jeremy Bernard Corbyn.
EDIT: The average SNP voted being someone who voted Labour every election as recently as 4 years ago.