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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Tory plotters wanting to oust May need have no worries

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited November 2017


    I understand she has dual citizenship - UK and Iranian.

    I also understand this complicates the situation in diplomatic terms
    Not really. When acquiring British citizenship you are explicitly told that the U.K. government cannot help you in the event of detention by your home country if you retain citizenship of it. Dual citizenship has pluses and minuses.....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rkrkrk said:

    Could be.
    But if the govt doesn't have the votes to pass it... that will be quite awkward for TM won't it?
    Or will it let her claim there really are saboteurs?

    It would show that Parliament really is Sovereign.

    The Brexiteers would be cheering that. Right?
  • Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stand out stat, there are ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY SIX pages of amendments to the withdrawal bill... gulp

    And this is the heart of May's problem - she doesn't have a working majority. The only issue of any real import in parliament is Brexit and she will be defeated if she tries to drive through whatever it is she's judged as the best hope to keep her in office.

    She won't be able to abstain on these ones and declare victory. I remember the soap-opera feel of the Maastrict treaty through the Commons, but in the 20+ years since the audience has hardened and wants more bodies on the floor nudity and unbelievably bizarre plot twists. I expect we'll get all of this and more
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited November 2017
    Scott_P said:

    He's a threat to our International reputation, in or out of the EU.

    That Brexiteers will overlook his unsuitability for office because he supports the cause is telling
    He has many faults but in the eyes of remainers and EU countries he is the villain of the peace as he wants to ensure Brexit happens
  • You really cannot believe these cretins can you
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    He has many faults but in the eyes of remainers and EU countries he is the villain of the peace as he wants to ensure Brexit happens

    He is unfit for office.

    His views on Brexit matter more to the Brexiteers who seek to defend the indefensible that anybody else
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,396

    A lot of people will be saying, welcome to our world. Orgreave, Hillsborough, stop and search. Theresa May said something about it once.
    In sick lefty world, I assume that means it's a-okay?
  • I'd forgotten how well Gordon Brown photographed.

    https://twitter.com/CllrTomHayes/status/930032159750017026
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359

    I'd forgotten how well Gordon Brown photographed.

    https://twitter.com/CllrTomHayes/status/930032159750017026

    Is he... dead?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited November 2017
    Scott_P said:

    He is unfit for office.

    His views on Brexit matter more to the Brexiteers who seek to defend the indefensible that anybody else
    You may be right but he will remain in office not least because the lady's husband wants him to

    I have no brief with Boris and absolutely do not want him near the leadership of my party
  • I'd forgotten how well Gordon Brown photographed.

    twitter.com/CllrTomHayes/status/930032159750017026

    Wonder how his book sales went? I reckon will be in the 99p bargain bin in a week or two.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2017

    I'd forgotten how well Gordon Brown photographed.

    twitter.com/CllrTomHayes/status/930032159750017026

    That photo makes it look like their policy is a blank sheet of paper....
  • Rhubarb said:

    Is he... dead?
    He had been employed on the task against his free will
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,396

    Ferfuxsake

    http s://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/930031292023963649

    You might like the following from parish council-land:
    http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/tyson-fury-gypsy-king-cambridgeshire-13884321
  • You might like the following from parish council-land:
    http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/tyson-fury-gypsy-king-cambridgeshire-13884321
    One of my colleagues is from Northern Ireland, he's been pretty much channelling the wife of Corry Evans when it comes to Romanians and gypsies this morning.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518

    Mr. L, Hillsborough is a fair point, stop and search less so. As stop and search has declined, crime has risen. Better for someone to be subject to a search than an acid or knife attack.

    Indeed.

    Expressing scepticism about a claim made by a former police officer with a grudge doesn't mean one should regard most police officers as dishonest, any more than one should regard Phil Shiner as being representative of the legal profession.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @elashton: PM spox on Zaghari-Ratcliffe: “The government’s position on this is very clear. She was there on holiday.” Won’t comment specifically on Gove’s remarks yesterday
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518

    You really cannot believe these cretins can you
    If I lived in that borough, I could not bring myself to vote Conservative in 2018. They really live on another planet.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    No I listened to Gove yesterday and he was fine.

    I saw him on Marr, which one did you see him on? Must have got his story right by then....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited November 2017
    Sean_F said:

    Indeed.

    Expressing scepticism about a claim made by a former police officer with a grudge doesn't mean one should regard most police officers as dishonest, any more than one should regard Phil Shiner as being representative of the legal profession.
    Yeah but we know all lawyers are a load of shysters though aren't they ;-)

    Google says...

    shyster - a person, especially a all lawyers, who uses unscrupulous, fraudulent, or deceptive methods in business.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    I agree about historians likely view but it will almost certainly condemn all politicians on all sides to singularly fail to come together in the nations interest. I am sure history will be very unkind to TM but she has made some big mistakes and unless she is able to resolve Brexit she will not be able to recover her previous reputation
    Always, when governments are up the proverbial creek without any form of propulsion, then the clarion call to all come together in the countries interest, shows that they really have lost it.....
  • OchEye said:

    Always, when governments are up the proverbial creek without any form of propulsion, then the clarion call to all come together in the countries interest, shows that they really have lost it.....
    It may just be too big an issue for any single party to resolve it but at present TM is retaining about 40% of the vote share and is preferred to Jeremy Corbyn. You may ask how on earth are labour not out of sight
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

    Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

    The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

    Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited November 2017
    Sean_F said:

    If I lived in that borough, I could not bring myself to vote Conservative in 2018. They really live on another planet.
    And neither would I - and that as a conservative member and as most say on here a loyal member
  • OchEye said:

    I saw him on Marr, which one did you see him on? Must have got his story right by then....
    Marr and in the context of the interview it was not an issue
  • stevef said:

    There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

    Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

    The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

    Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

    +1
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    stevef said:

    There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

    Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

    The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

    Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

    You would have more credence ,if you showed us a quote of your prediction of the GE in June 17.Dated before June 8th.
  • Yorkcity said:

    You would have more credence ,if you showed us a quote of your prediction of the GE in June 17.Dated before June 8th.
    The point is valid though. Corbyn is the issue for labour and it seems he is not going to be replaced anytime soon
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    stevef said:

    There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

    Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

    The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

    Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

    Will be interesting to see how many votes Labour get with Corbyn in an election where he has a chance of winning rather than the free pass many thought the 2017 GE was.

  • TGOHF said:

    Will be interesting to see how many votes Labour get with Corbyn in an election where he has a chance of winning rather than the free pass many thought the 2017 GE was.

    He has no answers to his Iranian connections which have surfaced over the weekend
  • stevef said:

    There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

    Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

    The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

    Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

    I wrote this in August 2016, and it seems apt now.

    Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/
  • He has no answers to his Iranian connections which have surfaced over the weekend
    The electoral impact, even if Corbyn is still leader at the next election, is likely to be zero. See Venezuela and the IRA in the 2017 election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Nicki Morgan on BBCDP effectively joining Soubry and calling for Boris to resign ("should be considering his position" followed by a set of scathing comments about his conduct)
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382


    The point is valid though. Corbyn is the issue for labour and it seems he is not going to be replaced anytime soon
    He was the main issue at the last GE for Labour , many on here me included said he would take Labour to a calamitous defeat .On here discussions were Labour were finished .Now a bit of reflection that their preconceived opinions might just be wrong would be nice to read for a change .Rather than tell us the same thing they did in April 17 then regurgitate for 2022.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    IanB2 said:

    Nicki Morgan on BBCDP effectively joining Soubry and calling for Boris to resign ("should be considering his position" followed by a set of scathing comments about his conduct)

    I don't think she was over happy about the dead bodies in Libya gag, was she?

    It is especially important at a time when Trump is potus that we put down a marker to say that in this country at least there are limits to how big an arse you can be and remain in high office. May should sack him this week.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited November 2017
    A Canada FTA as the governmemt is aiming for would keep tariffs on car exports to a minimum
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    stevef said:

    There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

    Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

    The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

    Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

    Corbyn may not win next time, the Tories could even win most seats but provided he has enough support from the SNP and LDs when combined with Labour to get over the 326 MPs needed for a majority in Parliament even if he does not win an overall majority Corbyn could for a minority government.

    It may become the worst government in our post war history but that would not stop Corbyn leading it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I don't think she was over happy about the dead bodies in Libya gag, was she?

    It is especially important at a time when Trump is potus that we put down a marker to say that in this country at least there are limits to how big an arse you can be and remain in high office. May should sack him this week.
    Now she is describing Mrs May as tone deaf and tin eared....
  • Yorkcity said:

    He was the main issue at the last GE for Labour , many on here me included said he would take Labour to a calamitous defeat .On here discussions were Labour were finished .Now a bit of reflection that their preconceived opinions might just be wrong would be nice to read for a change .Rather than tell us the same thing they did in April 17 then regurgitate for 2022.
    But why are laboir not miles ahead in the polls - if they had a half decent leader they would be
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Possibly. I distinctly remember that the first thing Kinnock did after losing was to get a letter off to the Times criticising the Major government's ERM policy. He seems to have foreseen the problem that later wrecked the Tories' reputation for economic competence. I think it is entirely plausible that he would have avoided that pitfall.
    Kinnock would have kept the UK in the ERM again until at least Black Wednesday and ran a far more left-wing government than Blair did. Heseltine or Portillo could have succeeded Major as Tory leader and even beaten Kinnock by 1997.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited November 2017
    Not prohibited, actionable under certain conditions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,765

    I wrote this in August 2016, and it seems apt now.

    Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/
    In the context of his subsequent (relative) success, one has to wonder whether you actually witnessed him perform such a procedure with (relative) elan before writing the article....

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    stevef said:

    There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

    .

    Wrong ! If the Tories were to lose 7 by elections support from the DUP would no longer be sufficient to prop them up..
  • But prohibited under Dyson's scenario, as the tweets below confirm.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    stevef said:

    There wont be a general election until 2022. For the Tories to lose a vote of confidence, they would have to lose 7 by elections, and the DUP would have to vote against the government.

    Corbyn will be 73, The Tories will have a new leader, none of the mistakes of the 2017 Tory campaign will be repeated, and the Tories will massively attack Corbyn's economic plans.

    The only way that Labour can win a general election is to get rid of Corbyn. Corbyn not only keeps the current Tory poll rating at 40% when the Tories are messing up big, but he will also keep them in power after 2022.

    Oh! Jeremy Corbyn.

    yebbut...

    That is an I wouldn't have started from here point.

    If Jezza hadn't been leader then whoever it had been would have campaigned strongly for Remain, the Referendum would have been Remain, there would have been no GE, and we would all be throwing our hands up in horror at the pasty tax debacle today.
  • Yorkcity said:

    He was the main issue at the last GE for Labour , many on here me included said he would take Labour to a calamitous defeat .On here discussions were Labour were finished .Now a bit of reflection that their preconceived opinions might just be wrong would be nice to read for a change .Rather than tell us the same thing they did in April 17 then regurgitate for 2022.
    I fess up. And I did at the time. I predicted absolutely slaughter for Labour, I bet accordingly, and I was wrong. About a week or so from polling day, I started to get a feeling that things were seriously starting to head Labour's way and put a bit of a hedge bet in. Just as well, otherwise I would have lost big time.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    But why are laboir not miles ahead in the polls - if they had a half decent leader they would be
    That is very rare a mere 5 months after a general election.
  • I maintain though that a fundamental issue for Labour is that people voted for them, despite Jezza, because he had no way on earth he would be PM.

    That will not apply next time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    edited November 2017
    Nigelb said:

    In the context of his subsequent (relative) success, one has to wonder whether you actually witnessed him perform such a procedure with (relative) elan before writing the article....

    Well, a few days later I wrote this.

    During PMQs, Jeremy Corbyn often displays the anguish of a man with a bumblebee trapped under his foreskin

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/07/if-corbyn-wants-to-win-the-confidence-of-labour-mps-he-needs-to-improve-his-performance-in-the-commons/

    #NotObsessedWithCorbynsTodger

    #FreudWillHaveAFieldDay
  • justin124 said:

    That is very rare a mere 5 months after a general election.
    True.

    The best comparison is 1992, I think. A significant period of Tory government, but a relatively new leader.

    It took about 6-7 months for Labour (now under Smith) to achieve double digit leads.

    That means the New Year for Corbyn (no new leader there of course).
  • True.

    The best comparison is 1992, I think. A significant period of Tory government, but a relatively new leader.

    It took about 6-7 months for Labour (now under Smith) to achieve double digit leads.

    That means the New Year for Corbyn (no new leader there of course).
    In Corbyn's defence he has no 'Black Wednesday' moment to get a real boost from.

    Yet.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I maintain though that a fundamental issue for Labour is that people voted for them, despite Jezza, because he had no way on earth he would be PM.

    That will not apply next time.

    I maintain though that a fundamental issue for Labour is that people voted for them, despite Jezza, because he had no way on earth he would be PM.

    That will not apply next time.

    But by the last week of the election campaign there were several polls pointing to a Hung Parliament - a big Tory win was no longer the certainty it had appeared a month earlier. Many people cast their votes on June 8th knowing that the result might be close.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    I maintain though that a fundamental issue for Labour is that people voted for them, despite Jezza, because he had no way on earth he would be PM.

    That will not apply next time.

    He attracted (hundreds of) thousands of new members and, more importantly, activist foot soldiers.
  • In Corbyn's defence he has no 'Black Wednesday' moment to get a real boost from.

    Yet.
    I would look at it like this.

    Winning governments retain a certain level of confidence, for a while. Backers can't justify switching.

    Then something comes along - Black Wednesday, the Omnishambles, etc, when the penny drops. To a very large extent, the drop itself is inevitable, it's the timing that's up for grabs.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,637



    I wrote this in August 2016, and it seems apt now.

    Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/

    Nick Palmer comment on that thread also looks pretty good (abridged)

    "As we're seeing in other countries, people don't always vote on a predictable left-right scale, and sometimes they vote for a style instead. I think he'll find it difficult to win a majority, but he has a style USP that his opponents generally lack which will make him do better than expected."
  • justin124 said:

    Wrong ! If the Tories were to lose 7 by elections support from the DUP would no longer be sufficient to prop them up..
    Losing 7 in a modern parliament is going some. MPs don't drop like they used to and there is no way on earth any tory MP who is sitting on anything less than a 20,000 majority will be made High Commissioner of Wheresthatplace.
  • Emma Dent Coad really is an odious piece of work isn't she?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,556
    edited November 2017

    I would look at it like this.

    Winning governments retain a certain level of confidence, for a while. Backers can't justify switching.

    Then something comes along - Black Wednesday, the Omnishambles, etc, when the penny drops. To a very large extent, the drop itself is inevitable, it's the timing that's up for grabs.
    I think I can guess what this government's version of these events might be.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    justin124 said:

    That is very rare a mere 5 months after a general election.
    Yep, this government is still in its 'honeymoon period' !!
  • Emma Dent Coad really is an odious piece of work isn't she?

    who?
  • who?
    Check Guido...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited November 2017
    It's true that there was little demand or pressure for May to legitimize her leadership with a General Election when she was anointed Tory leader. Part of that was because she already held one of the highest positions, she said the right things in her opening speeches and she was deemed an acceptable PM by the population. If the Tories go for someone divisive like Rees Mogg or Boris, it could be very different.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Losing 7 in a modern parliament is going some. MPs don't drop like they used to and there is no way on earth any tory MP who is sitting on anything less than a 20,000 majority will be made High Commissioner of Wheresthatplace.
    I am not disagreeing with that at all - but simply pointing out that if it were to happen continued support from the DUP would no longer be enough!
  • @justin124

    A week later, Gallup had Labour 22% ahead.

    Both were outliers. At that point the real gap was teens.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Dent-Coad's remarks could be construed as straight up racist. I think she's going to have to consider her position very shortly, and/or be suspended as per "Anne Marie Morris".
  • Pulpstar said:

    Dent-Coad's remarks could be construed as straight up racist. I think she's going to have to consider her position very shortly, and/or be suspended as per "Anne Marie Morris".

    Can you imagine if a Tory MP for Kensington said a Black Labour candidate "wouldn't be welcome in South Ken" if they got elected???????
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I fess up. And I did at the time. I predicted absolutely slaughter for Labour, I bet accordingly, and I was wrong. About a week or so from polling day, I started to get a feeling that things were seriously starting to head Labour's way and put a bit of a hedge bet in. Just as well, otherwise I would have lost big time.
    I was to ,betting May would get a 150 majority.All my ideas of how politics worked went up in the air , on hearing that exit poll at 10pm on 08/06/17.I started thinking something was no quite right when I took my daughter to vote , the amount of young people voting was on a different scale to 2015.Also I read on UK Polling Report that a poster was saying Canterbury was going Labour and the previous evening David Herdson comment.Still found it difficult to believe Labour were not going to get a hammering.
  • F1: couldn't get through on the site, trying via Twitter. Having a chat with a reasonable customer service person, having info given to another team (the customer service person can see where I'm coming from).

    Have to walk the dog fairly shortly so may have to come back to it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Pulpstar said:

    Dent-Coad's remarks could be construed as straight up racist. I think she's going to have to consider her position very shortly, and/or be suspended as per "Anne Marie Morris".

    I am usually at the front of the queue of those defending MPs against seeming idiocy; to be an MP you really do need a set of qualities that, simply, most people do not possess.

    But this does seem extraordinary from her and for all the world they seem the words of a fucking idiot.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    @justin124

    A week later, Gallup had Labour 22% ahead.

    Both were outliers. At that point the real gap was teens.

    Throughout that Parliament Gallup appeared to be massively overstating the Labour lead.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    rkrkrk said:

    Nick Palmer comment on that thread also looks pretty good (abridged)

    "As we're seeing in other countries, people don't always vote on a predictable left-right scale, and sometimes they vote for a style instead. I think he'll find it difficult to win a majority, but he has a style USP that his opponents generally lack which will make him do better than expected."
    Corbyn's USP is that he is the anti-establishment candidate. And a large number of voters want to give the establishment a severe kick in the hind quarters.

    Neither May nor any of her putative successors - except possibly JRM - could credibly present themselves as anti-establishment figures.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    justin124 said:

    But by the last week of the election campaign there were several polls pointing to a Hung Parliament - a big Tory win was no longer the certainty it had appeared a month earlier. Many people cast their votes on June 8th knowing that the result might be close.
    Nah, we know that voters pay hardly any attention to the polls, it takes months for the political narrative to change because largely the voters only get interested in politics when they get in the car to drive to the polling station.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    I'm only seeing one scumbag in that story....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,131
    edited November 2017

    Corbyn's USP is that he is the anti-establishment candidate. And a large number of voters want to give the establishment a severe kick in the hind quarters.

    Neither May nor any of her putative successors - except possibly JRM - could credibly present themselves as anti-establishment figures.
    Lol - the son of a peer and editor of The Times, educated at Eton, millionaire from working in the City - is "anti-establishment" !?! I think you need a dictionary.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    True.

    The best comparison is 1992, I think. A significant period of Tory government, but a relatively new leader.

    It took about 6-7 months for Labour (now under Smith) to achieve double digit leads.

    That means the New Year for Corbyn (no new leader there of course).
    Even John Smith was a different proposition from Corbyn and even by the end of 1992 Labour had a bigger lead than it does now.
  • Labour is stuffed full of such lovely people these days.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    justin124 said:

    But by the last week of the election campaign there were several polls pointing to a Hung Parliament - a big Tory win was no longer the certainty it had appeared a month earlier. Many people cast their votes on June 8th knowing that the result might be close.
    We care about those polls.

    Other voters? Not so much. I bet they don't register at all with 90%+ of voters. And when they do, it takes a week or two for that to seep into the general consciousness. They were still on the Labour-will-get-hammered-vote-how-you-like memo......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited November 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Lol - the son of a peer and editor of The Times, educated at Eton, millionaire from working in the City - is "anti-establishment" !?! I think you need a dictionary.
    Well the prep school educated and Shropshire manor house raised Corbyn is hardly anti establishment by back round either just by ideology like Mogg.

    Davis, council house raised and state educated and son of a single mother, is more non establishment by background than both, if slightly more moderate by ideology
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    We care about those polls.

    Other voters? Not so much. I bet they don't register at all with 90%+ of voters. And when they do, it takes a week or two for that to seep into the general consciousness. They were still on the Labour-will-get-hammered-vote-how-you-like memo......
    I think most people were aware that the gap had narrowed a lot and were no longer expecting a Tory landslide.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518

    I'm only seeing one scumbag in that story....
    Emma Dent Coad does come across as a thoroughly obnoxious person.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    F1: couldn't get through on the site, trying via Twitter. Having a chat with a reasonable customer service person, having info given to another team (the customer service person can see where I'm coming from).

    Have to walk the dog fairly shortly so may have to come back to it.

    Whats the bet ?

    I challenged a "lost" bet with Ladbrokes recently, they paid out about 15 minutes after my chat
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    That minuted quote from the Housing and Property Scrutiny Committee that "Coucillor Dent Coad praised the refurbishment of Grenfell Tower which she felt showed the Council had listened to residents" is even more politically toxic though.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,637
    edited November 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Dent-Coad's remarks could be construed as straight up racist. I think she's going to have to consider her position very shortly, and/or be suspended as per "Anne Marie Morris".

    http://emmadentcoad.blogspot.co.uk/2010/04/this-is-my-posh-voice-local-boy-done.html

    Is the blog itself for people to decide for themselves.
    I don't think it looks as bad as Guido makes out.

    Quite why she decided to write that blog though I have no idea.
  • Mr. Pulpstar, just 2.4 on Hamilton not to be on the podium. The line was that he started from the pit lane so it didn't count but I found a tweet from Andrew Benson the day before I made the bet, indicating Hamilton would be starting from the pit lane.

    Anyway, got to go walk the hound now.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
    Emma Dent Coad might have missed this profile of Shaun Bailey in The Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2007/may/02/communities.conservativeparty1

    "The 35-year-old Bailey wears many hats. He is a local, born and bred on the deprived estates of north Kensington."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518
    justin124 said:

    I think most people were aware that the gap had narrowed a lot and were no longer expecting a Tory landslide.
    I thought it would be a 1979-type win, up till the Exit Poll.
  • HYUFD said:

    Well the prep school educated and Shropshire manor house raised Corbyn is hardly anti establishment by back round either just by ideology like Mogg.

    Davis, council house raised and state educated and son of a single mother, is more non establishment by background than both, if slightly more moderate by ideology
    I'm not sure it is about being a member of the elite or not, it is about appearing like you are not a cookie cut member of the political class.

    Trump was establishment: rich, well connected, dad was a major property developer, friends with Clintons and bankers etc etc. But he managed to appear as if he just walked out of a redneck bar somewhere in the swamps of Louisiana.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Mr. Pulpstar, just 2.4 on Hamilton not to be on the podium. The line was that he started from the pit lane so it didn't count but I found a tweet from Andrew Benson the day before I made the bet, indicating Hamilton would be starting from the pit lane.

    Anyway, got to go walk the hound now.

    I suspect "starting from pit lane" wasn't there as an explicit term when you placed the bet. My own was a Dodgers saver placed each way. Ladbrokes initially tried to claim the e/w terms were 1-1, one place only. Which is ridiculous and simply wasn't the case.

    They're trying it on with you, and have gone sharply downhill since the merger I think.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,411
    CD13 said:

    Mr Observer,

    ' “If there are places where the role of the court will make it better or easier for us to have the right relationship in the future I would be open to that.”

    Makes sense to me. '

    I've read it several times and still not quite sure what he's saying. Is it ...

    (a) If they find in our favour, we will accept it.
    (b) if they find against us, we will accept it, and do what they want so as to gain goodwill.

    How is that different to saying we will accept the decisions of a foreign court?

    Mr G, Best wishes. Hopefully, you'll soon be back doing backward somersaults.

    A bit like Labour when it comes to the EU.

    This is the one area I find most difficult to understand about our EU negotiations.

    In pretty much every treaty that we enter into, we accept binding dispute resolution. So, our membership of NATO leads us to accept rulings of the NATO court. Our membership of the International Telecoms Union binds us to accept the rulings of their dispute resolution mechanisms.

    There is nothing unusual in us signing up to a foreign body for dispute resolution.

    The question is one of scope. We are used, in the UK, the ECJ having the ability to have a major impact on domestic law. It needn't be like that. Theoretically, we could enter into a treaty with the EU that made us members of the European Medicines Agency, and meant that we accepted rulings of the ECJ in respect to medicines manufacture. The ECJ could rule on other stuff as they liked, but the treaties (and more importantly UK law) would simply not recognise them as having any impact on the UK.

    I get the feeling the "no ECJ" rule was lazily tossed out, and now it can't be walked back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    I'm not sure it is about being a member of the elite or not, it is about appearing like you are not a cookie cut member of the political class.

    Trump was establishment: rich, well connected, dad was a major property developer, friends with Clintons and bankers etc etc. But he managed to appear as if he just walked out of a redneck bar somewhere in the swamps of Louisiana.
    Which applies equally to Sanders, Corbyn and Rees Mogg but not May or Hillary
This discussion has been closed.