politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Month by month during 2017 how the “Leaving EU right” lead has

There’s a new YouGov poll out which has LAB retaining its 2 points lead over CON. The survey also included the firm’s regular trackers on opinion in relation to Brexit.
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And upon her forehead was a name written, MYSTERY, BREXIT THE GREAT, THE MOTHER OF HARLOTS AND ABOMINATIONS OF THE EARTH.
Realistically this is the most important thing that's happened today regarding Brexit.
https://twitter.com/pswidlicki/status/923871483679657985
Nevertheless, the real question is not "Brexit: right or wrong?", but "Brexit: should we reverse the decision the people made in a referendum?" If the answer to the second question were to move overwhelmingly to reverse - i.e. at least a 20 point lead - then it would be interesting.
Currently, however, it's 20 points the other way: the vast majority of people believe that the democratic will of the people should be carried out.
He'll probably say the Confederacy was the greatest bigly secession ever.
I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.
Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.
My personal feeling (guess) is that Spain will win this round but store up a lot of resentment that will cause ongoing problems.
Firstly that 20% majority is made up of people like me who voted Remain but think the vote needs to be respected. This survey makes clear that it is ONLY because we think the vote needs to be respected that we support leaving the EU. NONE of us thinks Brexit is a good idea. As the trend now suggests there is a majority opposed to Brexit from first principles, that highly conditional 20% majority for proceeding with Brexit risks melting away.
The second reason is a dog that didn't bark. You would expect a consensus to build after an important public decision. We made the decision and it's time to move on. The survey shows that if anything the public is turning away from the decision.
https://order-order.com/2017/10/27/mini-reshuffle-callanan-new-brexit-minister/
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New words by Sunil, original music by Marc Almond & Dave Ball.
Friday morning going slow
I'm watching the election show
Lots of Ladbrokes slips on the floor
Memories of the night before
Out knocking up and having fun
Now I've stopped reading The Sun
Waiting for the results to show
But why I voted no one knows
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
I think it's time to write a thread
To vent the bemusement in my head
Spent my money on online bookies
Got nowt here but all the cookies
Clean my suit and my rosette
Election promises to forget
Start campaigning all over again
Kid myself I'm having fun
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
Looking out from my worldview
I've really nothing else to do
Seems like I have started fretting
Let's read Political Betting
Forget The Mirror and The Times
The battle bus with such great lines
Look around and I can see
A thousand punters just like me
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home
(I'm waiting for Brexit
Or am I wasting time)
But more importantly I certainly never expected a consensus to build backing the decision after the vote. It is clear from many previous examples that the EU and its supporters do not accept votes which go against them and will do everything they can to subvert or reverse those decisions. This is exactly what has happened.
The only real surprise to me (apart from how inept our Government - including Cameron and Osborne - have been since we voted leave) is how many Remainers have chosen to back the decision now it has been made. I believe that shows just how much underlying contempt their is for the EU as an institution even amongst those who voted Remain.
But there is a hard core, encouraged by the EU, who will do almost anything to prevent Brexit and will cheer any setback for the country which they mistakenly believe might increase the chances of the decision being reversed.
Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.
Unless and until Spain recognises Catalonian independence the EU will not do so.
"Better to be lucky
Irrationality at the voting booth
The tendency to blame people's actions on character rather than circumstance is mostly bad for democracy"
https://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2017/10/better-be-lucky
And we wonder why the EU might want to give Spain leeway....
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/924010319080574976
"Mikko Kärnä @KarnaMikko
Congratulations to the independent Republic of #Catalonia. Next week I will submit a motion to the Finnish Parliament for your recognition."
Still, at least its a change from Diana.
Wiki list
Bright Future (centre), list letter A
Centre Party (centre/centre-right), list letter M
Progressive Party (centre-right), list letter B
Reform (centre/centre-right), list letter C
Independence Party (centre-right/right-wing), list letter D
Social Democratic Alliance (centre-left), list letter S
Left-Green Movement (left-wing), list letter V
People's Party (left, populist), list letter F
Pirate Party (syncretic), list letter P
I recall the day after the news broke, or very soon at any rate, a report that he had been defending some gay people, so word was certainly out.
Looks as if it is going to be a very busy 'news story' weekend
Good night