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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Month by month during 2017 how the “Leaving EU right” lead has moved in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

There’s a new YouGov poll out which has LAB retaining its 2 points lead over CON. The survey also included the firm’s regular trackers on opinion in relation to Brexit.

Read the full story here

MarqueeMark

We're still Leaving. Get used to it.....

tlg86

Second like Remain when it mattered.

Jonathan

What is this Brexit I keep hearing about? Have I missed something?

kle4

The interesting question will be when some progress is made (which unless we are indeed heading for no deal will happen at some point), will the trend reverse? That is, is there a tide turning implacably in the direction of leave being wrong, or is it the hardening of remain voters coupled with disappointed softer leavers due to a belief it is going badly, and that if some good progress is made they will be back on board?

rcs1000

Wake me up when it's -20

kle4

Jonathan said:

What is this Brexit I keep hearing about? Have I missed something?

Nothing to worry about, it's not happening because reasons.

kle4

I find all this Catalonia stuff distracting as I wrote a story which involved a stereotypical evil fantasy empire whose capital was called Catalania. While I am terrible at coming up with names for things, I wasn't thinking of the spanish region when I came up with it.

Ishmael_Z

That graph looks like a Sunil gag. It would be much less dramatic if it showed the totals rather than just the lead.

Sandpit

Margin of error.

TheScreamingEagles

Soon Brexit will be seen like the Whore of Babylon.

And upon her forehead was a name written, MYSTERY, BREXIT THE GREAT, THE MOTHER OF HARLOTS AND ABOMINATIONS OF THE EARTH.

Realistically this is the most important thing that's happened today regarding Brexit.

https://twitter.com/pswidlicki/status/923871483679657985

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

Wake me up when it's -20

Do EU bears hibernate in the winter?

rcs1000

Sandpit said:

Margin of error.

I think YouGov has captured a small, but genuine move.

Nevertheless, the real question is not "Brexit: right or wrong?", but "Brexit: should we reverse the decision the people made in a referendum?" If the answer to the second question were to move overwhelmingly to reverse - i.e. at least a 20 point lead - then it would be interesting.

Currently, however, it's 20 points the other way: the vast majority of people believe that the democratic will of the people should be carried out.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/Be_Herrero/status/923972256023408640

rcs1000

I think the solution to all these independence movements is that we simply take Neal Stephenson as our guide, and go in the direction of Snow Crash (or the Diamond Age). Lots of quasi nations will allow us all to find the demos that really works for us.

kle4

With Spain planning regional elections in Catalonia, I suppose the question is do the separatists participate even though they now maintain they are an independent state, or do they boycott and then try the argument the low turnout invalidates it (regardless of what happened with the referendum)?

TheScreamingEagles

rcs1000 said:

I think the solution to all these independence movements is that we simply take Neal Stephenson as our guide, and go in the direction of Snow Crash (or the Diamond Age). Lots of quasi nations will allow us all to find the demos that really works for us.

My plan to become King Directly Elected Dictator of the Britons could be realised in that scenario.

TwistedFireStopper

rcs1000 said:

I think the solution to all these independence movements is that we simply take Neal Stephenson as our guide, and go in the direction of Snow Crash (or the Diamond Age). Lots of quasi nations will allow us all to find the demos that really works for us.

I quite fancy joining the Drummers.

TheScreamingEagles

Has Donald Trump tweeted about Catalonia seceding?

He'll probably say the Confederacy was the greatest bigly secession ever.

Y0kel

Catalonia

I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.

Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.

MarkHopkins

Y0kel said:

Catalonia

I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.

Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.

My personal feeling (guess) is that Spain will win this round but store up a lot of resentment that will cause ongoing problems.

Sunil_Prasannan

We are all Catalans now?

Richard_Tyndall

Y0kel said:

Catalonia

I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.

Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.

Well they haven't so far. What makes you think they will start doing so now? Whilst not of course of the same level of violence, I am reminded of the fact that the Easter Uprising in 1916 did not have very much support at all from the Irish people. They only changed their view in the light of the British overreaction.

Pulpstar

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41778609 you can see why Corbyn is popular with crap like this around

Sunil_Prasannan

Ishmael_Z said:

That graph looks like a Sunil gag. It would be much less dramatic if it showed the totals rather than just the lead.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640

logical_song

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Margin of error.

I think YouGov has captured a small, but genuine move.

Nevertheless, the real question is not "Brexit: right or wrong?", but "Brexit: should we reverse the decision the people made in a referendum?" If the answer to the second question were to move overwhelmingly to reverse - i.e. at least a 20 point lead - then it would be interesting.

Currently, however, it's 20 points the other way: the vast majority of people believe that the democratic will of the people should be carried out.

The will of just over half the people!

FF43

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Margin of error.

I think YouGov has captured a small, but genuine move.

Nevertheless, the real question is not "Brexit: right or wrong?", but "Brexit: should we reverse the decision the people made in a referendum?" If the answer to the second question were to move overwhelmingly to reverse - i.e. at least a 20 point lead - then it would be interesting.

Currently, however, it's 20 points the other way: the vast majority of people believe that the democratic will of the people should be carried out.

I accept your point that it is now about reversal rather than agreement with the original decision. Nevertheless I think this survey is relevant for two reasons.

Firstly that 20% majority is made up of people like me who voted Remain but think the vote needs to be respected. This survey makes clear that it is ONLY because we think the vote needs to be respected that we support leaving the EU. NONE of us thinks Brexit is a good idea. As the trend now suggests there is a majority opposed to Brexit from first principles, that highly conditional 20% majority for proceeding with Brexit risks melting away.

The second reason is a dog that didn't bark. You would expect a consensus to build after an important public decision. We made the decision and it's time to move on. The survey shows that if anything the public is turning away from the decision.

Sandpit

New DExEU minister - Martin Callanan MEP. Very Eurosceptic.
https://order-order.com/2017/10/27/mini-reshuffle-callanan-new-brexit-minister/

AndyJS

Y0kel said:

Catalonia

I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.

Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.

Isn't an important point that organisations like the SNP, Plaid Cymru, etc. might stop being so enthusiastically pro-EU when they see the stance the EU is taking on Catalonia?

FF43

FPT

DavidL said:

In other and more important news Dundee has been identified as one of the top 10 coolest places to visit next year by the Wall Street Journal no less. Their description did make me wonder if they had ever been here but hey, it’s the closest to trendy I have been for a while.

Dundee is the most under-rated tourism city in the UK. Mainly because it is not rated at all normally. Loads of interesting places to visit and if you like scenery and good food, the Angus hinterland is another hidden gem.

Essexit

Y0kel said:

Catalonia

I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.

Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.

Recent experience would suggest that's one hell of an 'if'!

Essexit

logical_song said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Margin of error.

I think YouGov has captured a small, but genuine move.

Nevertheless, the real question is not "Brexit: right or wrong?", but "Brexit: should we reverse the decision the people made in a referendum?" If the answer to the second question were to move overwhelmingly to reverse - i.e. at least a 20 point lead - then it would be interesting.

Currently, however, it's 20 points the other way: the vast majority of people believe that the democratic will of the people should be carried out.

The will of just over half the people!

Which is more than just under half. Suck it up.

Sunil_Prasannan

Brexitter
-------------

New words by Sunil, original music by Marc Almond & Dave Ball.

Friday morning going slow
I'm watching the election show
Lots of Ladbrokes slips on the floor
Memories of the night before
Out knocking up and having fun
Now I've stopped reading The Sun
Waiting for the results to show
But why I voted no one knows

Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home

I think it's time to write a thread
To vent the bemusement in my head
Spent my money on online bookies
Got nowt here but all the cookies
Clean my suit and my rosette
Election promises to forget
Start campaigning all over again
Kid myself I'm having fun

Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home

Looking out from my worldview
I've really nothing else to do
Seems like I have started fretting
Let's read Political Betting
Forget The Mirror and The Times
The battle bus with such great lines
Look around and I can see
A thousand punters just like me

Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home

Voting, polling
Blogging, trolling
And now I'm all alone
In Brexit Land
My only home

(I'm waiting for Brexit
Or am I wasting time)

Big_G_NorthWales

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

brendan16

Essexit said:

logical_song said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Margin of error.

I think YouGov has captured a small, but genuine move.

Nevertheless, the real question is not "Brexit: right or wrong?", but "Brexit: should we reverse the decision the people made in a referendum?" If the answer to the second question were to move overwhelmingly to reverse - i.e. at least a 20 point lead - then it would be interesting.

Currently, however, it's 20 points the other way: the vast majority of people believe that the democratic will of the people should be carried out.

The will of just over half the people!

Which is more than just under half. Suck it up.

And nearly 10 per cent more than Blair or Thatcher ever got despite winning two 'landslides' each - and on a bigger turnout too.

tlg86

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

Richard_Tyndall

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Margin of error.

I think YouGov has captured a small, but genuine move.

Nevertheless, the real question is not "Brexit: right or wrong?", but "Brexit: should we reverse the decision the people made in a referendum?" If the answer to the second question were to move overwhelmingly to reverse - i.e. at least a 20 point lead - then it would be interesting.

Currently, however, it's 20 points the other way: the vast majority of people believe that the democratic will of the people should be carried out.

I accept your point that it is now about reversal rather than agreement with the original decision. Nevertheless I think this survey is relevant for two reasons.

Firstly that 20% majority is made up of people like me who voted Remain but think the vote needs to be respected. This survey makes clear that it is ONLY because we think the vote needs to be respected that we support leaving the EU. NONE of us thinks Brexit is a good idea. As the trend now suggests there is a majority opposed to Brexit from first principles, that highly conditional 20% majority for proceeding with Brexit risks melting away.

The second reason is a dog that didn't bark. You would expect a consensus to build after an important public decision. We made the decision and it's time to move on. The survey shows that if anything the public is turning away from the decision.

As far as I am concerned, the dog that didn't bark was all the lies about what would happen if we voted leave.

But more importantly I certainly never expected a consensus to build backing the decision after the vote. It is clear from many previous examples that the EU and its supporters do not accept votes which go against them and will do everything they can to subvert or reverse those decisions. This is exactly what has happened.

The only real surprise to me (apart from how inept our Government - including Cameron and Osborne - have been since we voted leave) is how many Remainers have chosen to back the decision now it has been made. I believe that shows just how much underlying contempt their is for the EU as an institution even amongst those who voted Remain.

But there is a hard core, encouraged by the EU, who will do almost anything to prevent Brexit and will cheer any setback for the country which they mistakenly believe might increase the chances of the decision being reversed.

Essexit

brendan16 said:

Essexit said:

logical_song said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Margin of error.

I think YouGov has captured a small, but genuine move.

Nevertheless, the real question is not "Brexit: right or wrong?", but "Brexit: should we reverse the decision the people made in a referendum?" If the answer to the second question were to move overwhelmingly to reverse - i.e. at least a 20 point lead - then it would be interesting.

Currently, however, it's 20 points the other way: the vast majority of people believe that the democratic will of the people should be carried out.

The will of just over half the people!

Which is more than just under half. Suck it up.

And nearly 10 per cent more than Blair or Thatcher ever got despite winning two 'landslides' each - and on a bigger turnout too.

...and 3.8% less than Leave got on the same turnout.

Big_G_NorthWales

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

The Country's MP for Lapland has said that he intends to submit a motion to the Finish Parliament recognising Catalonia. Mr Karna who is part of the ruling centre party also sent his congratulations to Catalonia after their declaration earlier today.

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Just as well we haven't, it is Spain who will have a veto on any UK deal with the EU as an existing EU member, not Catalonia. Plus given Spanish support for the Union in 2014 when Scotland had its independence referendum it would be rather ungrateful.

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

dodrade

Richard_Tyndall said:

Y0kel said:

Catalonia

I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.

Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.

Well they haven't so far. What makes you think they will start doing so now? Whilst not of course of the same level of violence, I am reminded of the fact that the Easter Uprising in 1916 did not have very much support at all from the Irish people. They only changed their view in the light of the British overreaction.

I doubt even Rajoy is planning to execute Puigdemont.

HYUFD

On topic, of course Yougov had Remain winning the EU referendum in its final poll.

Y0kel

Richard_Tyndall said:

Y0kel said:

Catalonia

I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.

Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.

Well they haven't so far. What makes you think they will start doing so now? Whilst not of course of the same level of violence, I am reminded of the fact that the Easter Uprising in 1916 did not have very much support at all from the Irish people. They only changed their view in the light of the British overreaction.

Because most of the Irish never thought themselves British, ever. In Catalonia, maybe half see themselves as Spanish above Catalan. Secondly Spain has long had a working relationship with this region, one that that region signed up to post-Franco. No such scenario existed in Ireland, ultimately it was ruler versus ruled with the exception of the North east counties that became NI.

Pulpstar

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

I assume the UK will recognise Catalunlya if and when the EU does

HYUFD

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

I assume the UK will recognise Catalunlya if and when the EU does

Which would be never, if the EU recognised Catalonia it would lose Spain and it cannot afford to lose 2/5 of its biggest economies in the space of two years.

Unless and until Spain recognises Catalonian independence the EU will not do so.

Sunil_Prasannan

Y0kel said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Y0kel said:

Catalonia

I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.

Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.

Well they haven't so far. What makes you think they will start doing so now? Whilst not of course of the same level of violence, I am reminded of the fact that the Easter Uprising in 1916 did not have very much support at all from the Irish people. They only changed their view in the light of the British overreaction.

Because most of the Irish never thought themselves British, ever. In Catalonia, maybe half see themselves as Spanish above Catalan. Secondly Spain has long had a working relationship with this region, one that that region signed up to post-Franco. No such scenario existed in Ireland, ultimately it was ruler versus ruled with the exception of the North east counties that became NI.

Ireland had 105 seats at Westminster at the time of 1918 election.

Sunil_Prasannan

dodrade said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Y0kel said:

Catalonia

I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.

Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.

Well they haven't so far. What makes you think they will start doing so now? Whilst not of course of the same level of violence, I am reminded of the fact that the Easter Uprising in 1916 did not have very much support at all from the Irish people. They only changed their view in the light of the British overreaction.

I doubt even Rajoy is planning to execute Puigdemont.

"When my new apprentice, Darth Vader Rajoy arrives, he will "take care" of you!"

Y0kel

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Y0kel said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Y0kel said:

Catalonia

I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.

Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.

Well they haven't so far. What makes you think they will start doing so now? Whilst not of course of the same level of violence, I am reminded of the fact that the Easter Uprising in 1916 did not have very much support at all from the Irish people. They only changed their view in the light of the British overreaction.

Because most of the Irish never thought themselves British, ever. In Catalonia, maybe half see themselves as Spanish above Catalan. Secondly Spain has long had a working relationship with this region, one that that region signed up to post-Franco. No such scenario existed in Ireland, ultimately it was ruler versus ruled with the exception of the North east counties that became NI.

Ireland had 105 seats at Westminster at the time of 1918 election.

Didnt change the facts, ruler vs ruled.

nielh

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

The Country's MP for Lapland has said that he intends to submit a motion to the Finish Parliament recognising Catalonia. Mr Karna who is part of the ruling centre party also sent his congratulations to Catalonia after their declaration earlier today.

Finland fought Russia for independence and again in WW2. Ceded parts of Karelia to Russia as part of the peace deal. It is a homogenous nation, 100 years old, with a common language. So I suppose that on the face of it there may be some similarities with the Catalans.

philiph

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

I assume the UK will recognise Catalunlya if and when the EU does

Which would be never, if the EU recognised Catalonia it would lose Spain and it cannot afford to lose 2/5 of its biggest economies in the space of two years.

Unless and until Spain recognises Catalonian independence the EU will not do so.

What % of Spains GDP is in Catalonia (assuming it doesn't migrate to Spain)?

AndyJS

Interesting article:

"Better to be lucky
Irrationality at the voting booth

The tendency to blame people's actions on character rather than circumstance is mostly bad for democracy"

https://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2017/10/better-be-lucky

Richard_Tyndall

philiph said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

I assume the UK will recognise Catalunlya if and when the EU does

Which would be never, if the EU recognised Catalonia it would lose Spain and it cannot afford to lose 2/5 of its biggest economies in the space of two years.

Unless and until Spain recognises Catalonian independence the EU will not do so.

What % of Spains GDP is in Catalonia (assuming it doesn't migrate to Spain)?

25%.

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Y0kel

So it seems that the President of the Corsican Assembly has recognised Catalonia's independence claim.

And we wonder why the EU might want to give Spain leeway....

TheScreamingEagles

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Do you want to tell him that Nokia sold their mobile phone division a few years ago or shall I?

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Why do you think this will make Spain want to ensure Vodafone gets a good deal? One of Vodafone's main competitors is the Spanish Telefonica, and neither of them are in competition with Nokia.

nielh

Richard_Tyndall said:

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Margin of error.

I think YouGov has captured a small, but genuine move.


Currently, however, it's 20 points the other way: the vast majority of people believe that the democratic will of the people should be carried out.

I accept your point that it is now about reversal rather than agreement with the original decision. Nevertheless I think this survey is relevant for two reasons.

Firstly that 20% majority is made up of people like me who voted Remain but think the vote needs to be respected. This survey makes clear that it is ONLY because we think the vote needs to be respected that we support leaving the EU. NONE of us thinks Brexit is a good idea. As the trend now suggests there is a majority opposed to Brexit from first principles, that highly conditional 20% majority for proceeding with Brexit risks melting away.

The second reason is a dog that didn't bark. You would expect a consensus to build after an important public decision. We made the decision and it's time to move on. The survey shows that if anything the public is turning away from the decision.

As far as I am concerned, the dog that didn't bark was all the lies about what would happen if we voted leave.

But more importantly I certainly never expected a consensus to build backing the decision after the vote. It is clear from many previous examples that the EU and its supporters do not accept votes which go against them and will do everything they can to subvert or reverse those decisions. This is exactly what has happened.

The only real surprise to me (apart from how inept our Government - including Cameron and Osborne - have been since we voted leave) is how many Remainers have chosen to back the decision now it has been made. I believe that shows just how much underlying contempt their is for the EU as an institution even amongst those who voted Remain.

But there is a hard core, encouraged by the EU, who will do almost anything to prevent Brexit and will cheer any setback for the country which they mistakenly believe might increase the chances of the decision being reversed.

FF43 has it pretty much spot on. For the most part, the 20% haven't seen the light and suddenly embraced Brexit. We just accept the result. I don't want a fudged situation where we revert to business as usual because it would not placate the underlying forces that have been brewing in this country for years and crystallised in the toxic circumstances of Camerons catastropic referendum.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Do you want to tell him that Nokia sold their mobile phone division a few years ago or shall I?

Nokia still has a presence in the mobile and smartphone business through a licensing agreement with HMD Global, even if it focuses mainly on telecommunications infrastructure now.

AndyJS

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Usually Iceland is the first to recognise in these circumstances but the fact they've got an election in a few hours' time is probably preventing them from paying too much attention to the situation in Catalonia.

CopperSulphate

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Interesting. Any source for this?

HYUFD

Tracey Ullman doing Jeremy Corbyn on BBC1 now to add to her Theresa May.

Recidivist

rcs1000 said:

Wake me up when it's -20

Which at the current rate of change would be November 2018.

nielh

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Why do you think this will make Spain want to ensure Vodafone gets a good deal? One of Vodafone's main competitors is the Spanish Telefonica, and neither of them are in competition with Nokia.

optimism

Pulpstar

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

I assume the UK will recognise Catalunlya if and when the EU does

Which would be never, if the EU recognised Catalonia it would lose Spain and it cannot afford to lose 2/5 of its biggest economies in the space of two years.

Unless and until Spain recognises Catalonian independence the EU will not do so.

Glad my pension autobuy is tilted toward the greenback right now

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Why do you think this will make Spain want to ensure Vodafone gets a good deal? One of Vodafone's main competitors is the Spanish Telefonica, and neither of them are in competition with Nokia.

They are through Nokia's links with HMD Global. BT and Cable and Wireless (now part of Vodafone) could also be beneficiaries.

kle4

Y0kel said:

Catalonia

I said it at the time whilst many complained about the optics of Spanish police knocking some heads. Posts on Twitter do not constitute the strength of a movement. Madrid is prepared to dig in and fight this to the utmost, has the EU pretty much at its back at the moment . Catalonia, cannot have that strength of unity and within the wider independence movement has seriously diverse segments. Its population is heavily split, its external support will come under scrutiny.

Strength lies with Spain, if they use it wisely but firmly.

I don't recall that much disputing. Nothing about believing the optics looked bad for them suggests automatically believing that Catalonia had or has the strength to go it alone, given its split views.

Pulpstar

Richard_Tyndall said:

philiph said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

I assume the UK will recognise Catalunlya if and when the EU does

Which would be never, if the EU recognised Catalonia it would lose Spain and it cannot afford to lose 2/5 of its biggest economies in the space of two years.

Unless and until Spain recognises Catalonian independence the EU will not do so.

What % of Spains GDP is in Catalonia (assuming it doesn't migrate to Spain)?

25%.

Wealthier than Spain on a per capita basis then

TheScreamingEagles

Stokes might be playing in The Ashes after all

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/924010319080574976

The_Apocalypse

https://mobile.twitter.com/drjennings/status/923512771899162624

HYUFD

CopperSulphate said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Interesting. Any source for this?

BigG earlier.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/924013741741690884

AndyJS

Tweet from Finnish MP who is a member of one of the governing parties:

"Mikko Kärnä‏ @KarnaMikko

Congratulations to the independent Republic of #Catalonia. Next week I will submit a motion to the Finnish Parliament for your recognition."

kle4

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Which raises a few interesting (inasmuch as anything about the crisis is interesting in a non tragic way) questions - if the 'provisional government' of the republic find themselves arrested or at the least unable to actually function as a state in any way, how would any of those who've already recognised them react?

Richard_Tyndall

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

philiph said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

I assume the UK will recognise Catalunlya if and when the EU does

Which would be never, if the EU recognised Catalonia it would lose Spain and it cannot afford to lose 2/5 of its biggest economies in the space of two years.

Unless and until Spain recognises Catalonian independence the EU will not do so.

What % of Spains GDP is in Catalonia (assuming it doesn't migrate to Spain)?

25%.

Wealthier than Spain on a per capita basis then

Yep. I believe the figures I saw quoted at the time of the referendum were that Catalonia had 16% of the population of Spain but 25% of the GDP. Not sure how much of that is likely to transfer out though.

Rhubarb

HYUFD said:

CopperSulphate said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Interesting. Any source for this?

BigG earlier.

Looks like a possibly over enthusiastic Express article.

Still, at least its a change from Diana.

rpjs

rcs1000 said:

I think the solution to all these independence movements is that we simply take Neal Stephenson as our guide, and go in the direction of Snow Crash (or the Diamond Age). Lots of quasi nations will allow us all to find the demos that really works for us.

The "Hives" of Ada Parker's "Seven Surrenders" series (great world building, shame about the narrative) are similar and interesting. They are seven non-geographical organizations, ranging from the Masons to the EU to the Mitsubishi corporation that people can choose to join and subject themselves to their law. People can also align to "strats" as a secondary cultural identity such as nationality. All organized religion and proselytization is outlawed but there is a class of religious/philosophical counselor-cum-pastor called "sensayers" that most people subscribe to to for spiritual cure.

Big_G_NorthWales

Rhubarb said:

HYUFD said:

CopperSulphate said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Interesting. Any source for this?

BigG earlier.

Looks like a possibly over enthusiastic Express article.

Still, at least its a change from Diana.

Genuine tweet from one of the Finnish ruling party's MPs

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stokes might be playing in The Ashes after all

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/924010319080574976

About the only way he could, given he was caught dead to rights, though pretty sure you're not supposed to beat people up even if they are verbally abusing people.

kle4

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Usually Iceland is the first to recognise in these circumstances

Really? Very keen on independent states are they?

foxinsoxuk

Recidivist said:

rcs1000 said:

Wake me up when it's -20

Which at the current rate of change would be November 2018.

About the time either Westminster is voting on "the deal" or facing crash out Brexit. I shall put it in my diary.

Pulpstar

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

philiph said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

I assume the UK will recognise Catalunlya if and when the EU does

Which would be never, if the EU recognised Catalonia it would lose Spain and it cannot afford to lose 2/5 of its biggest economies in the space of two years.

Unless and until Spain recognises Catalonian independence the EU will not do so.

What % of Spains GDP is in Catalonia (assuming it doesn't migrate to Spain)?

25%.

Wealthier than Spain on a per capita basis then

Yep. I believe the figures I saw quoted at the time of the referendum were that Catalonia had 16% of the population of Spain but 25% of the GDP. Not sure how much of that is likely to transfer out though.

Weirdly enough I was doing the accounts for a contract near Valls today.

rpjs

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

The Country's MP for Lapland has said that he intends to submit a motion to the Finish Parliament recognising Catalonia. Mr Karna who is part of the ruling centre party also sent his congratulations to Catalonia after their declaration earlier today.

That's not really the same as saying the government is about to recognize Catalonia though. MPs of all parties submit motions on all manner of oddball subjects all the time. It's like saying the UK is about to make homeopathy the basis of the NHS because there's a Tory MP that's always rattling on about it.

HYUFD

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Which raises a few interesting (inasmuch as anything about the crisis is interesting in a non tragic way) questions - if the 'provisional government' of the republic find themselves arrested or at the least unable to actually function as a state in any way, how would any of those who've already recognised them react?

Well a war between Spain and Argentina would solve the Gibraltar and Falklands problems (not that it would ever come about of course).

rpjs

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Usually Iceland is the first to recognise in these circumstances

Really? Very keen on independent states are they?

Their perennial governing party is the Independence Party.

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stokes might be playing in The Ashes after all

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/924010319080574976

About the only way he could, given he was caught dead to rights, though pretty sure you're not supposed to beat people up even if they are verbally abusing people.

Like punching Nazis, punching homophobes isn't something I condone, but I can understand why people do it.

kle4

So...election in Iceland, huh? Not another overturning of the natural order I hope.

Rhubarb

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Rhubarb said:

HYUFD said:

CopperSulphate said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Interesting. Any source for this?

BigG earlier.

Looks like a possibly over enthusiastic Express article.

Still, at least its a change from Diana.

Genuine tweet from one of the Finnish ruling party's MPs

Apologies - the Express link was all I saw on my twitter search.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stokes might be playing in The Ashes after all

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/924010319080574976

About the only way he could, given he was caught dead to rights, though pretty sure you're not supposed to beat people up even if they are verbally abusing people.

Like punching Nazis, punching homophobes isn't something I condone, but I can understand why people do it.

Oh, it would be a test of one's principles to be a witness called to confirm who it was who smacked either of those options.

Ishmael_Z

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stokes might be playing in The Ashes after all

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/924010319080574976

About the only way he could, given he was caught dead to rights, though pretty sure you're not supposed to beat people up even if they are verbally abusing people.

Like punching Nazis, punching homophobes isn't something I condone, but I can understand why people do it.

Puzzling that it has taken so long for this to emerge.

Big_G_NorthWales

Rhubarb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Rhubarb said:

HYUFD said:

CopperSulphate said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Interesting. Any source for this?

BigG earlier.

Looks like a possibly over enthusiastic Express article.

Still, at least its a change from Diana.

Genuine tweet from one of the Finnish ruling party's MPs

Apologies - the Express link was all I saw on my twitter search.

They probably used the tweet for their story.

kle4

rpjs said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Though expect Spain to be rather favourable to a good deal for UK mobile phone companies like Vodafone in any FTA given Nokia is Finland's biggest company.

I dread to ask, but what makes you think that?

Finland is about to recognise an independent Catalonia apparently.

Usually Iceland is the first to recognise in these circumstances

Really? Very keen on independent states are they?

Their perennial governing party is the Independence Party.

Ah, makes sense. Looking at the list of parties, seems like a lot of centre/centre right options
Wiki list
Bright Future (centre), list letter A
Centre Party (centre/centre-right), list letter M
Progressive Party (centre-right), list letter B
Reform (centre/centre-right), list letter C
Independence Party (centre-right/right-wing), list letter D
Social Democratic Alliance (centre-left), list letter S
Left-Green Movement (left-wing), list letter V
People's Party (left, populist), list letter F
Pirate Party (syncretic), list letter P

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stokes might be playing in The Ashes after all

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/924010319080574976

About the only way he could, given he was caught dead to rights, though pretty sure you're not supposed to beat people up even if they are verbally abusing people.

Like punching Nazis, punching homophobes isn't something I condone, but I can understand why people do it.

Puzzling that it has taken so long for this to emerge.

I recall the day after the news broke, or very soon at any rate, a report that he had been defending some gay people, so word was certainly out.

MikeSmithson

What's going to happen in French Catalonia, now France's Pyrenees-Orientales area which was for centuries a part of Catalonia

Big_G_NorthWales

Battery going so early night.

Looks as if it is going to be a very busy 'news story' weekend

Good night

stevef

Only two points ahead.

rpjs

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Which raises a few interesting (inasmuch as anything about the crisis is interesting in a non tragic way) questions - if the 'provisional government' of the republic find themselves arrested or at the least unable to actually function as a state in any way, how would any of those who've already recognised them react?

The nascent RSFSR recognised the Irish Republic of 1916/1918-1922 I believe. I suppose that was all quietly swept under the carpet when the UK became one of the first countries to recognise the USSR in 1924.

williamglenn

MikeSmithson said:

What's going to happen in French Catalonia, now France's Pyrenees-Orientales area which was for centuries a part of Catalonia

Perhaps Manuel Valls will sense his chance to become President of somewhere...

rpjs

MikeSmithson said:

What's going to happen in French Catalonia, now France's Pyrenees-Orientales area which was for centuries a part of Catalonia

Actually it occurs to me that a good candidate for first (only?) country to recognise Catalonia would be Andorra.

kle4

rpjs said:

MikeSmithson said:

What's going to happen in French Catalonia, now France's Pyrenees-Orientales area which was for centuries a part of Catalonia

Actually it occurs to m that a good candidate for first (only?) country to recognise Catalonia would be Andorra.

Isn't the President of France one of the co-princes of Andorra? He might have something to say about that.

MarqueeMark

Richard_Tyndall said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

philiph said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Reports Finland and Argentina about to recognise Catalonia

Finland?! That would put the cat amongst the EU pigeons.

I assume the UK will recognise Catalunlya if and when the EU does

Which would be never, if the EU recognised Catalonia it would lose Spain and it cannot afford to lose 2/5 of its biggest economies in the space of two years.

Unless and until Spain recognises Catalonian independence the EU will not do so.

What % of Spains GDP is in Catalonia (assuming it doesn't migrate to Spain)?

25%.

Wealthier than Spain on a per capita basis then

Yep. I believe the figures I saw quoted at the time of the referendum were that Catalonia had 16% of the population of Spain but 25% of the GDP. Not sure how much of that is likely to transfer out though.

Interesting problem for Spain if there is a "tax strike" in Catalonia.....

rpjs

kle4 said:

rpjs said:

MikeSmithson said:

What's going to happen in French Catalonia, now France's Pyrenees-Orientales area which was for centuries a part of Catalonia

Actually it occurs to m that a good candidate for first (only?) country to recognise Catalonia would be Andorra.

Isn't the President of France one of the co-princes of Andorra? He might have something to say about that.

Purely ceremonial rôle now though I believe. I wonder which way the Bishop of Urgel will jump?