politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Off to Westminster to give evidence before the House of Lords

TGOHF said:

Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:

Half chocolate-coated biscuits
Non-dairy milk
Flavoured water
Gin, bottle
Flavoured cider, bottle
Apple cider, four-can pack*
Men’s base layer top
Cycle helmet
Average council tax bills in Great Britain
Average rates bills in Northern Ireland
Cough liquid
Child’s scooter
Jigsaw (now very popular with adults)
Cider

You'll have to pry that bottle of Sipsmiths from my cold, dead hands.

Morris_Dancer said:

Another 0.1% spike in inflation.

It's a bit above target. Not hugely. Certainly not at a bed-wetting stage, particularly when we've ample scope to increase interest rates to a more normal level.

Still, panic, woe doom, Armageddon, climate change, Brexit, time for socialism, foam-flecked fantastical fear-mongering terror, apocalypse! Etc.

Mrs C, some things do age worse than others (although a story about not being racist because it might lead to a false rape conviction seems to be on the timeless side).

Discussion of the new boundary proposals on the VoteUK forum:

http://vote-2012.proboards.com/board/2/boundaries

"City of Durham and Easington" is one of the more interesting proposals I've seen so far. Broxtowe becomes Broxtowe & Hucknall, with Beeston moving into Nottingham South.

Please conduct yourselves with decorum, PB Tories.

https://twitter.com/camusson/status/920228197052149761

Ruth will finally reach the apogee of her brand of ersatz bonhomie.

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I'm afraid I could not have a friend who backed the BNP. I'd be civil to such a person, but they are not getting any bit of me beyond that.

Well, we've been friends for nearly 50 years, so it's not easily discarded. Normally he votes Tory or UKIP, but in one London election a few years back wanted to send a message that he felt immigration was too high. He has a Chinese partner and is not very racialist, but sees voting as a matter of message-sending since it's unlikely to change the result.

I think I'd have more trouble with a regular BNP voter, or one who I hadn't previously been friends with. But in the end the acid test for me is whether I believe that they mean well, not what conclusions that leads them to take.

Good for you.

TGOHF said:

eristdoof said:

TGOHF said:

Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:

Rubbish why should things added to the basket be prone to higher than normal inflation? In fact the statisticians would want to actively avoid anything that might be prone to such an effect. The basket is supposed to reflect typical goods not fashion.

Woosh ! Sorry I should have used the "joking" font.

Key point is everyone's inflation is different.

Fair enough! I did wonder if it was meant to be ironic but saw no sign that it was meant to be

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, yeah, saw that on Twitter.

To be honest, I hated reading it. Probably down to my teacher, to be honest. All I really learnt was that dressing as a giant ham makes you impervious to knife attacks.

It does seem a stupid decision.

Your teachers let you down.

Mike will be getting even more nervous as the proceedings at the Lords Committee are "currently suspended". Presumably for a loo break.

Hang on - just starting.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, yeah, saw that on Twitter.

To be honest, I hated reading it. Probably down to my teacher, to be honest. All I really learnt was that dressing as a giant ham makes you impervious to knife attacks.

It does seem a stupid decision.

Not liking To Kill a Mockingbird is quite an extreme example of people's taste in literature. And from a writer, to boot.

MikeSmithson said:

I've got it. The reason surely for the GE2017 polling problems was inconsistent voting patterns by different segments of the electorate. You can't blame the pollsters for that

That's basically the nub of it.

rkrkrk said:

NickPalmer said:

Pong said:

Good luck.

Apologies for the negativity but.... I really don't think polling/election predictions/psephology is something the lords should consider official business. Leave it to the electoral commission/BPC etc.

There's an insane amount of really difficult, dull but essential brexit scrutiny for the lords to be getting on with. They should be working overtime on economic impact assessments and whatnot.

Hope the day goes well, anyway. I don't blame you for accepting the invitation!

The couple of times I've seen you on TV you came across pretty well.

It's of political interest because of the view that polls should be banned in the final week(s), as in many other countries.

Ban polls or ban the publishing of polls?

Quite aside from the fact that neither should happen, free speech, neither would achieve or prevent anything.

You'd just get tactical data leaks, local strawman and voodoo polls and uninformed speculation referring back to the last polling point. And both parties will just say it's too close to call anyway.

The best thing to do is to accept the margins of error in the data/data sampling and challenge the analysis.

Theuniondivvie said:

Please conduct yourselves with decorum, PB Tories.

https://twitter.com/camusson/status/920228197052149761

Ruth will finally reach the apogee of her brand of ersatz bonhomie.

Somehow, I didn't have you down as a connoisseur of bonhomie....

Sean_F said:

MikeSmithson said:

I've got it. The reason surely for the GE2017 polling problems was inconsistent voting patterns by different segments of the electorate. You can't blame the pollsters for that

I think turnout was just about ideal for Labour. Had it matched the 2015 election, or the 2016 referendum, the Tories would either just have held on to a handful of Southern marginals, or else just got those extra votes in Northern and Midlands seats which Labour saved by a whisker.

A fair few Leavers who voted in 2016 returned to DNVs, and some Tory Remainers stayed at home or defected. Meanwhile, Corbynitis united the Left, and the Kippers let May down.

That cost the Tories scores of marginals. If it hadn't happened (or Corbyn had been kept down to 35-36%, say) May would have a very healthy majority.

Very few saw it coming.

I've always been against the existence of the House of Lords but a body that realized that it should get advice from not only Mike but also Shadsy can't be all bad.

pb quoted.

Nigelb said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Please conduct yourselves with decorum, PB Tories.

https://twitter.com/camusson/status/920228197052149761

Ruth will finally reach the apogee of her brand of ersatz bonhomie.

Somehow, I didn't have you down as a connoisseur of bonhomie....

Not the ersatz stuff, certainly.

chrisoxon said:

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:

Half chocolate-coated biscuits
Non-dairy milk
Flavoured water
Gin, bottle
Flavoured cider, bottle
Apple cider, four-can pack*
Men’s base layer top
Cycle helmet
Average council tax bills in Great Britain
Average rates bills in Northern Ireland
Cough liquid
Child’s scooter
Jigsaw (now very popular with adults)
Cider

The council tax bills are tricky to avoid though.

What was the justification for adding council tax bills? They increase as much as people think they can get away with politically (avoiding a referendum if possible) and the social care levy meant many County Council's increased rates by almost 5% this year.

It forms part of the 'basket' of goods for 75+% of the country ?

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

rkrkrk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tragic, this book, alongside LOTR, had the most profound effect on me as a child*

The Biloxi School District got complaints about the wording in “To Kill A Mockingbird” — an American classic being taught in 8th grade English Language Arts classes — and pulled it from the curriculum.

http://www.sunherald.com/news/local/counties/jackson-county/article178572326.html?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1508228905

*So did the film, Gregory Peck was magnificent.

I remember reading it in school and being surprised we were being encouraged to read a book that was actually enjoyable.

We read it at school, was early '90s - we kept conflating Burris Ewell with Boris Yeltsin to create Burris Yeltsin

We used to conflate Yeltsin with Boutros Boutros-Ghali:

Boris Boris Yeltsin

(It was funny at the time!)

Boris Boris.

So good they named him twice.

deleted

Carolus_Rex said:

dixiedean said:

Carolus_Rex said:

TGOHF said:

Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:

Half chocolate-coated biscuits
Non-dairy milk
Flavoured water
Gin, bottle
Flavoured cider, bottle
Apple cider, four-can pack*
Men’s base layer top
Cycle helmet
Average council tax bills in Great Britain
Average rates bills in Northern Ireland
Cough liquid
Child’s scooter
Jigsaw (now very popular with adults)
Cider

What on earth is "men's base layer top"?

A warm vest

Thanks.

Why can't they just call it that?

are you sure it's not make up...?

DavidL said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

DavidL said:

Carolus_Rex said:

TGOHF said:

Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:

Half chocolate-coated biscuits
Non-dairy milk
Flavoured water
Gin, bottle
Flavoured cider, bottle
Apple cider, four-can pack*
Men’s base layer top
Cycle helmet
Average council tax bills in Great Britain
Average rates bills in Northern Ireland
Cough liquid
Child’s scooter
Jigsaw (now very popular with adults)
Cider

What on earth is "men's base layer top"?

A vest?

Would you need a vest with all that cider and gin to keep you warm?

Very good point. Cider seems to be on the list no less than 3 times. Have they got an enthusiast arguing, well, all my wages go on it.

Vested interest?

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/920242792605126656

If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.

Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.

That was very good! Both Mike and Shadsy.

Not quite BODMAS, but thoughts PBers?

I went for -1

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245335095697408

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245418818228224

Freggles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Freggles said:

Wings over Scotland just got called out

By Foulkes.

That's that settled then.

Don't know who that is but he was easily the most partisan contributor to the debate and looked confused when told the big spenders' money had gone on Remain

He's certainly partisan when it comes to polls (that was when Jezza and Lab were polling terribly, mind).

'Parliament set to consider a bill to ban election polls'

http://tinyurl.com/yaun9l6c

logical_song said:

Winstanley said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/920242792605126656

If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.

Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.

It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government.
Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!

And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?

When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Winstanley said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/920242792605126656

If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.

Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.

It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government.
Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!

And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?

When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?

The 2016 referendum was between two options:

- Semi-detached membership
- Brexit

The next referendum should be between two options:

- Whatever Brexit really means
- Full membership

Fascinating piece... quote in the Guardian from Kemi Badenoch’s pice in the Telegraph. She writes that she 'asked two of my staff members what they thought of the increased enthusiasm for Corbyn. Separated by 30 years, I listened to these two Conservatives, argue about the problem with young people. It was illuminating.
My head of office vividly remembered going hungry every time there was a strike and her father lost his wages. The 3-day week, waiting months for a telephone line and how terrible British Rail was. The carnage after a Left-wing government was obvious. She had seen socialism fail, again and again. “Look at what’s happening in Venezuela!”. I watched my 23 year old researcher’s eyes deaden as she said that.

“Yeah, what about Venezuela?” he asked. “I don’t care about Venezuela. I care about what’s happening here. Yes, you waited 6 months for a telephone line, but my family’s been waiting years for a mobile phone signal in my house, the trains are still late but more expensive and I still live at home because a cheap flat is ten times my salary”.

Ref. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/oct/17/david-davis-brexit-statement-boris-johnson-holding-up-progress-in-brexit-talks-claims-merkel-ally-politics-live

TGOHF said:

That would be fine because Brexit would win easily. The Uk wouldn't sign up to ever closer union and the Euro.

You realise that's exactly the mistake Cameron made in offering an in/out referendum? He thought putting the nuclear option on the other side of the equation would guarantee victory.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Not quite BODMAS, but thoughts PBers?

I went for -1

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245335095697408

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245418818228224

I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.

logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1

Shirley?

justin124 said:

Barnesian said:

That was very good! Both Mike and Shadsy.

Yes - though I don't agree with Mike's comment that the Local Elections in May confirmed poll predictions of a Tory landslide. They implied a Tory lead of 11% and a Tory majority of 40 - 60 - according to John Curtice.

The Tories actually went up from the local elections from 38% to 42% in the general election, it was just Labour went up more from 27% to 40%.

The biggest change from the local elections to the general election was the LDs collapsed from 18% to 7% most of which went to Labour.

Pong said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Not quite BODMAS, but thoughts PBers?

I went for -1

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245335095697408

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245418818228224

I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.

logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1

Shirley?

I'd have said the exact opposite... 0.5 is closer to 1... so -0.5 is closer to -1.
Surely you have to be symmetrical around the x=0 axis.

williamglenn said:

You realise that's exactly the mistake Cameron made in offering an in/out referendum? He thought putting the nuclear option on the other side of the equation would guarantee victory.

Er no. He gave an in/out referendum because that was the only thing he could offer. Since there were no treaties nor other changes to the EU pending at the time he could not offer a referendum on anything except in/out.

logical_song said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Winstanley said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/920242792605126656

If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.

Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.

It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government.
Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!

And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?

When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?

The 2016 referendum was between two options:

- Semi-detached membership
- Brexit

The next referendum should be between two options:

- Whatever Brexit really means
- Full membership

Or it could be
- Whatever Brexit really means
- Cameron's deal (which is looking better every day)

Cameron's deal (which was a waste of paper anyway) is no longer on offer.

Sky in London's going all dark yellow again! It was really eerie yesterday afternoon, and looks like it's happening again!

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Women's Beach Volleyball might have a new rival at the Olympics.

Pole dancing could become an Olympic event 'in the next ten years'

The activity, which was once associated with strip clubs, has become an international fitness movement

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/pole-dancing-could-become-an-olympic-event-in-the-next-ten-years-a3660346.html

I hear Harvey Weinstein is looking for a new career. I am sure they will need judges.

I have to confess watching the Women's Beach Volleyball at Horse Guards Parade was one of the most spiritual things I've ever watched

Pong said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Not quite BODMAS, but thoughts PBers?

I went for -1

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245335095697408

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245418818228224

I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.

logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1

Shirley?

I'm unsure that there's any convention over this wrt rounding up, down, away from zero etc. But as an engineer, there's a danger in saying '0' when '-0.5' is meant. Zero is taken too readily to mean nothing is present, when there is actually something present. Likewise, there might be a special meaning in the fact it is negative. Hence, in the absence of any other rules, I would round down to -1. Likewise, with +0.5 I would round up to +1.

JosiasJessop said:

Pong said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Not quite BODMAS, but thoughts PBers?

I went for -1

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245335095697408

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245418818228224

I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.

logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1

Shirley?

I'm unsure that there's any convention over this wrt rounding up, down, away from zero etc. But as an engineer, there's a danger in saying '0' when '-0.5' is meant. Zero is taken too readily to mean nothing is present, when there is actually something present. Likewise, there might be a special meaning in the fact it is negative. Hence, in the absence of any other rules, I would round down to -1. Likewise, with +0.5 I would round up to +1.

So you'd pick a hard "round away from zero" for any values abs(v) > e where e is some value that represents the error in measurement.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Not quite BODMAS, but thoughts PBers?

I went for -1

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245335095697408

twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245418818228224

25




- D Abbott

Pong said:

mwadams said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Not quite BODMAS, but thoughts PBers?

I went for -1

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245335095697408

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245418818228224

Depends whether you are rounding half up (which means -0.5 goes to 0, 0.5 goes to 1), rounding half down (which means -0.5 goes to -1, 0.5 goes to 0), rounding half away from zero (in which case -0.5 goes to -1, 0.5 goes to 1) or rounding half towards zero (in which case -0.5 goes to 0, 0.5 goes to 0).

Your software should (but probably doesn't) tell you what half-rounding rule is in place.

Unless you are HMRC, in which case rounding is carefully set out to be ambiguous and deeply confusing

You talk sense.

What he said.

rkrkrk said:

Pong said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Not quite BODMAS, but thoughts PBers?

I went for -1

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245335095697408

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245418818228224

I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.

logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1

Shirley?

I'd have said the exact opposite... 0.5 is closer to 1... so -0.5 is closer to -1.
Surely you have to be symmetrical around the x=0 axis.

Only if there's something magically special about 0. Being consistent if you round up then 0 is up on -0.5

If you view a set of numbers to two decimal places then:

4 is the range 3.50 to 4.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
3 is the range 2.50 to 3.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
2 is the range 1.50 to 2.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
1 is the range 0.50 to 1.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)

So logically and consistently
0 should be the range -0.50 to 0.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)

Otherwise 0 contains a range of just 99 numbers to 2 decimal places and I see no reason why it should. The core of mathematics is to be consistent in how you treat your numbers.

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

Barnesian said:

That was very good! Both Mike and Shadsy.

Yes - though I don't agree with Mike's comment that the Local Elections in May confirmed poll predictions of a Tory landslide. They implied a Tory lead of 11% and a Tory majority of 40 - 60 - according to John Curtice.

The Tories actually went up from the local elections from 38% to 42% in the general election, it was just Labour went up more from 27% to 40%.

The biggest change from the local elections to the general election was the LDs collapsed from 18% to 7% most of which went to Labour.

That was not the point he was making though.

No, but for Mr HYUFD there must be nothing published which doesn’t reflect well on the Tories, or blame anything which does go awry of ‘the others’.

What is wrong with what I said? It is factually correct that the Tory vote increased from the local to the general elections but that the Labour vote increased more. The main losers from the period from the local elections to the general election were the LDs as their voteshare fell by 11%

It's an irony that Corbyn's ability to suddenly perform properly and his uniting of the Left made more of a difference than all the (legit) complaints about TMay.

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Pong said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Not quite BODMAS, but thoughts PBers?

I went for -1

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245335095697408

https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245418818228224

I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.

logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1

Shirley?

I'd have said the exact opposite... 0.5 is closer to 1... so -0.5 is closer to -1.
Surely you have to be symmetrical around the x=0 axis.

Only if there's something magically special about 0. Being consistent if you round up then 0 is up on -0.5

If you view a set of numbers to two decimal places then:

4 is the range 3.50 to 4.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
3 is the range 2.50 to 3.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
2 is the range 1.50 to 2.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
1 is the range 0.50 to 1.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)

So logically and consistently
0 should be the range -0.50 to 0.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)

Otherwise 0 contains a range of just 99 numbers to 2 decimal places and I see no reason why it should. The core of mathematics is to be consistent in how you treat your numbers.

By talking about "in the range" you are probably thinking about rounding for bucketing (e.g. for a histogram) in which case, you are probably (but not definitively) right to choose that rounding scheme.

Richard_Tyndall said:

logical_song said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Winstanley said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/920242792605126656

If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.

Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.

It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government.
Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!

And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?

When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?

The 2016 referendum was between two options:

- Semi-detached membership
- Brexit

The next referendum should be between two options:

- Whatever Brexit really means
- Full membership

Or it could be
- Whatever Brexit really means
- Cameron's deal (which is looking better every day)

Cameron's deal (which was a waste of paper anyway) is no longer on offer.

I'm struggling to remember, but as I far as I recall he himself never tried to sell it.

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

logical_song said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

logical_song said:

Winstanley said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/920242792605126656

If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.

Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.

It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government.
Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!

And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?

When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?

The 2016 referendum was between two options:

- Semi-detached membership
- Brexit

The next referendum should be between two options:

- Whatever Brexit really means
- Full membership

Or it could be
- Whatever Brexit really means
- Cameron's deal (which is looking better every day)

Cameron's deal (which was a waste of paper anyway) is no longer on offer.

I'm struggling to remember, but as I far as I recall he himself never tried to sell it.

It was a titanic offer - it sank on its first outing.

MTimT said:

SandyRentool said:

NickPalmer said:

Pong said:

Good luck.

Apologies for the negativity but.... I really don't think polling/election predictions/psephology is something the lords should consider official business. Leave it to the electoral commission/BPC etc.

There's an insane amount of really difficult, dull but essential brexit scrutiny for the lords to be getting on with. They should be working overtime on economic impact assessments and whatnot.

Hope the day goes well, anyway. I don't blame you for accepting the invitation!

The couple of times I've seen you on TV you came across pretty well.

It's of political interest because of the view that polls should be banned in the final week(s), as in many other countries.

Then we'd get the tweets saying things like:

Latest fruit prices:
Redcurrants 42p/100g
Blueberries 38p/100g
Yellow bananas 7p/100g
Scottish raspberries 4p/100g
Greengages 2p/100g

I am struggling for a suitable fruit to represent the Kippers!

Seaweed?

Seaweed is a fruit? Who knew?

OldKingCole said:

Fascinating piece... quote in the Guardian from Kemi Badenoch’s pice in the Telegraph. She writes that she 'asked two of my staff members what they thought of the increased enthusiasm for Corbyn. Separated by 30 years, I listened to these two Conservatives, argue about the problem with young people. It was illuminating.
My head of office vividly remembered going hungry every time there was a strike and her father lost his wages. The 3-day week, waiting months for a telephone line and how terrible British Rail was. The carnage after a Left-wing government was obvious. She had seen socialism fail, again and again. “Look at what’s happening in Venezuela!”. I watched my 23 year old researcher’s eyes deaden as she said that.

“Yeah, what about Venezuela?” he asked. “I don’t care about Venezuela. I care about what’s happening here. Yes, you waited 6 months for a telephone line, but my family’s been waiting years for a mobile phone signal in my house, the trains are still late but more expensive and I still live at home because a cheap flat is ten times my salary”.

Ref. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/oct/17/david-davis-brexit-statement-boris-johnson-holding-up-progress-in-brexit-talks-claims-merkel-ally-politics-live

Kemi's Telegraph piece contains something else:

In a world where people genuinely believe the fixed pie fallacy – that a penny more for you means a penny less for someone else, that wealth is not created but distributed – policies to reward wealth creators make no sense.

There is an implied criticism of the left but in fact it is the right that is most prone to this fallacy, as we see in their emphasis on cuts and austerity rather than economic growth.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/16/right-has-winning-vision-doesnt-speak-language-todays-voters/