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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Off to Westminster to give evidence before the House of Lords Committee that’s looking at political polling
This morning alongside Matthew Shaddick (Shadsy) of Ladbrokes I’ll be giving evidence before the Lords Committee that’s investigating political polling particularly in view of what happened at GE17.
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Apologies for the negativity but.... I really don't think polling/election predictions/psephology is something the lords should consider official business. Leave it to the electoral commission/BPC etc.
There's an insane amount of really difficult, dull but essential brexit scrutiny for the lords to be getting on with. They should be working overtime on economic impact assessments and whatnot.
Hope the day goes well, anyway. I don't blame you for accepting the invitation!
The couple of times I've seen you on TV you came across pretty well.
Enjoy the day Mike!
I'm sure you'll do very well.
Latest fruit prices:
Redcurrants 42p/100g
Blueberries 38p/100g
Yellow bananas 7p/100g
Scottish raspberries 4p/100g
Greengages 2p/100g
I am struggling for a suitable fruit to represent the Kippers!
Price of fish for the Kippers?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/politics-and-friendship-are-a-toxicmixture-qr09swn7x
Personally I see no problem. I've had friends who were everything from BNP to Trots: what counts is that one thinks they are primarily well-intentioned, even if they've come to strange and even unpleasant conclusions. PB works on much the same assumption, doesn't it?
Klaxon. Anyone?
Leaving the EU is much more damaging than just impoverishing the population
I must admit I would have (and have had) trouble with a BNP or NF member.
And you can also blame pollsters for not noticing their subsamples had become internally inconsistent.
Either aggressively means test pensions, or keep as/is & tax property/inheritance properly.
Edit: non-voters who do not vote probably don't take part in polls either.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/920206176385667074
From the Conservative Party manifesto: maintain the Triple Lock until 2020, and when it expires we will introduce a new Double Lock, meaning that pensions will rise in line with the earnings that pay for them, or in line with inflation –- whichever is highest.
Huh? I mean isn't that what pollsters are supposed to analyse?
It's a bit above target. Not hugely. Certainly not at a bed-wetting stage, particularly when we've ample scope to increase interest rates to a more normal level.
Still, panic, woe doom, Armageddon, climate change, Brexit, time for socialism, foam-flecked fantastical fear-mongering terror, apocalypse! Etc.
Right now, workers are getting 0.9% poorer every year.
Pensioners aren't.
The workers are paying the pensioners overgenerous pensions that they won't receive themselves.
That's not fair.
Topping up 2.5% anyway if inflation is low doesn't particularly. Nice to have if we can afford it.
Of course for the next little while it looks like inflation will be higher than target - so probably a moot point.
My suspicion is Carney will tolerate higher inflation in the hope of propping up growth.
The yellows will remain yellow because increasing awareness of pancreatic cancer isn't as fashionable.
[I did wonder about posting the second sentence, but it pisses me off that people are literally dying because research into pancreatic cancer (as a 'non-sexy/trendy' disease) is so much more underfunded. If/when I actually have enough cash to splash around, pancreatic cancer research will be near the top of the list].
State pensioners should be feeling hard done to as well. Under Blair and Brown, pensions increased by the higher of RPI or 2.5%. The link to CPI was brought in after 2011 by Osborne. The additional link to average earnings was brought in by Osborne over a period of engineered austerity when he knew earnings would be falling well behind 2.5%, such that the extra link to earnings has proved useless to state pensioners.
The concern for me is continued real wage decline - and that is actually happening.
Seems weak wage growth (and current decline) is the price we've paid as a nation for strong employment statistics.
Party before Country (can someone translate that into Latin so CCHQ can adopt it officially as the motto?)
[Edit: Google translate says: Pars antequam terra - Yes? No? Maybe?]
Or something....
https://www.choosehope.com/category/by-cancer-color-cancer-type
Blame past politicians, like Thatcher. Don't blame the workers for Thatcher's actions.
I have a (not very novel) theory for what has gone so wrong in the tory party in recent years.
It's fundamentally caused by a decline in newspaper readership. The powerbrokers in the party think that the editors are more powerful than they actually are.
The editors are desperately pandering to their declining readership, which is getting older and older.
This all funneled into a manifesto which had dotted every i & crossed every t so far as the editors were concerned, but got torn apart in the socialmediasphere that normal, non-newspaper readers inhabit.
FPTP doesn't help the pollsters.
I can see that going well
To be honest, I think there might be a lot less trouble if people were prepared to live for their country rather than die for it. Think what would have happened in WW1 if all those young men had said "We have a whole life ahead of us - go fight your own wars"
The Biloxi School District got complaints about the wording in “To Kill A Mockingbird” — an American classic being taught in 8th grade English Language Arts classes — and pulled it from the curriculum.
http://www.sunherald.com/news/local/counties/jackson-county/article178572326.html?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1508228905
*So did the film, Gregory Peck was magnificent.
To be honest, I hated reading it. Probably down to my teacher, to be honest. All I really learnt was that dressing as a giant ham makes you impervious to knife attacks.
It does seem a stupid decision.
I don't think that the basic sampling was that bad. What happened was that a generation which always said it would do one thing (vote) and do another (not vote), and which had become steadily more prone to that behaviour as time went on, suddenly decided to do what they were saying they would do. Not unreasonably, the pollsters took the view that they were still crying wolf.
Pollsters are always fighting the last war, not the current one. Any change in established patterns of behaviour can catch them out.
I think I'd have more trouble with a regular BNP voter, or one who I hadn't previously been friends with. But in the end the acid test for me is whether I believe that they mean well, not what conclusions that leads them to take.
As men live longer prostate cancer will become an increasing problem. One of the problems, for me anyway, is that one at least of the treatments is depressing. God knows how much the unit where I had radiotherapy cost.
Although I can still remember inter arma enim silent leges for all the wrong reasons.
The inflation figure is bad news for the government and for Hammond's budget (if indeed he is the one giving it). It means both pensions and benefits are going to be increasing faster than was anticipated making the sums even harder to balance. It also threatens to undermine any argument that the budget is designed to help the young even if it is a matter somewhat beyond the Chancellor's control at the moment. Higher inflation means a longer period until wages start to grow again in real terms. Not great for the government either.
'If any question why we died,
Tell them, because our fathers lied.'
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