Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
You'll have to pry that bottle of Sipsmiths from my cold, dead hands.
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Rubbish why should things added to the basket be prone to higher than normal inflation? In fact the statisticians would want to actively avoid anything that might be prone to such an effect. The basket is supposed to reflect typical goods not fashion.
Woosh ! Sorry I should have used the "joking" font.
It's a bit above target. Not hugely. Certainly not at a bed-wetting stage, particularly when we've ample scope to increase interest rates to a more normal level.
Still, panic, woe doom, Armageddon, climate change, Brexit, time for socialism, foam-flecked fantastical fear-mongering terror, apocalypse! Etc.
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
Mrs C, some things do age worse than others (although a story about not being racist because it might lead to a false rape conviction seems to be on the timeless side).
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
What on earth is "men's base layer top"?
A warm vest
Thanks.
Why can't they just call it that?
Because they are made out of a highly technical* fabric with branding like Under Armour.
Mrs C, some things do age worse than others (although a story about not being racist because it might lead to a false rape conviction seems to be on the timeless side).
Indeed, but Biloxi is in Missisiisisipppi (sp?) and it is reputed to be about 1937, not 2017
"City of Durham and Easington" is one of the more interesting proposals I've seen so far. Broxtowe becomes Broxtowe & Hucknall, with Beeston moving into Nottingham South.
Tragic, this book, alongside LOTR, had the most profound effect on me as a child*
The Biloxi School District got complaints about the wording in “To Kill A Mockingbird” — an American classic being taught in 8th grade English Language Arts classes — and pulled it from the curriculum.
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
What on earth is "men's base layer top"?
A vest?
Would you need a vest with all that cider and gin to keep you warm?
I'm afraid I could not have a friend who backed the BNP. I'd be civil to such a person, but they are not getting any bit of me beyond that.
Well, we've been friends for nearly 50 years, so it's not easily discarded. Normally he votes Tory or UKIP, but in one London election a few years back wanted to send a message that he felt immigration was too high. He has a Chinese partner and is not very racialist, but sees voting as a matter of message-sending since it's unlikely to change the result.
I think I'd have more trouble with a regular BNP voter, or one who I hadn't previously been friends with. But in the end the acid test for me is whether I believe that they mean well, not what conclusions that leads them to take.
Q: What's worse than being a pilot landing a plane and running out of runway?
A: Being a pilot landing a plane and running out of runway and being so scared of the photos the media will print that you steer away from the thing that's designed to bring the plane to a stop.
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Rubbish why should things added to the basket be prone to higher than normal inflation? In fact the statisticians would want to actively avoid anything that might be prone to such an effect. The basket is supposed to reflect typical goods not fashion.
Woosh ! Sorry I should have used the "joking" font.
Key point is everyone's inflation is different.
Fair enough! I did wonder if it was meant to be ironic but saw no sign that it was meant to be
To be honest, I hated reading it. Probably down to my teacher, to be honest. All I really learnt was that dressing as a giant ham makes you impervious to knife attacks.
To be honest, I hated reading it. Probably down to my teacher, to be honest. All I really learnt was that dressing as a giant ham makes you impervious to knife attacks.
It does seem a stupid decision.
Not liking To Kill a Mockingbird is quite an extreme example of people's taste in literature. And from a writer, to boot.
I've got it. The reason surely for the GE2017 polling problems was inconsistent voting patterns by different segments of the electorate. You can't blame the pollsters for that
Tragic, this book, alongside LOTR, had the most profound effect on me as a child*
The Biloxi School District got complaints about the wording in “To Kill A Mockingbird” — an American classic being taught in 8th grade English Language Arts classes — and pulled it from the curriculum.
Apologies for the negativity but.... I really don't think polling/election predictions/psephology is something the lords should consider official business. Leave it to the electoral commission/BPC etc.
There's an insane amount of really difficult, dull but essential brexit scrutiny for the lords to be getting on with. They should be working overtime on economic impact assessments and whatnot.
Hope the day goes well, anyway. I don't blame you for accepting the invitation!
The couple of times I've seen you on TV you came across pretty well.
It's of political interest because of the view that polls should be banned in the final week(s), as in many other countries.
Ban polls or ban the publishing of polls?
Quite aside from the fact that neither should happen, free speech, neither would achieve or prevent anything.
You'd just get tactical data leaks, local strawman and voodoo polls and uninformed speculation referring back to the last polling point. And both parties will just say it's too close to call anyway.
The best thing to do is to accept the margins of error in the data/data sampling and challenge the analysis.
Personally I see no problem. I've had friends who were everything from BNP to Trots: what counts is that one thinks they are primarily well-intentioned, even if they've come to strange and even unpleasant conclusions. PB works on much the same assumption, doesn't it?
I'm afraid I could not have a friend who backed the BNP. I'd be civil to such a person, but they are not getting any bit of me beyond that.
Its entirely possible you may have one already and don't know it. People who don't talk about these issues can hold very surprising views.
Another oddity is that sometimes, peoples' voting behaviour bears no relation to their opinions.
I worked with a strong Kipper who didn't want to leave the EU.
I've got it. The reason surely for the GE2017 polling problems was inconsistent voting patterns by different segments of the electorate. You can't blame the pollsters for that
I think turnout was just about ideal for Labour. Had it matched the 2015 election, or the 2016 referendum, the Tories would either just have held on to a handful of Southern marginals, or else just got those extra votes in Northern and Midlands seats which Labour saved by a whisker.
A fair few Leavers who voted in 2016 returned to DNVs, and some Tory Remainers stayed at home or defected. Meanwhile, Corbynitis united the Left, and the Kippers let May down.
That cost the Tories scores of marginals. If it hadn't happened (or Corbyn had been kept down to 35-36%, say) May would have a very healthy majority.
I've always been against the existence of the House of Lords but a body that realized that it should get advice from not only Mike but also Shadsy can't be all bad.
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
The council tax bills are tricky to avoid though.
What was the justification for adding council tax bills? They increase as much as people think they can get away with politically (avoiding a referendum if possible) and the social care levy meant many County Council's increased rates by almost 5% this year.
Tragic, this book, alongside LOTR, had the most profound effect on me as a child*
The Biloxi School District got complaints about the wording in “To Kill A Mockingbird” — an American classic being taught in 8th grade English Language Arts classes — and pulled it from the curriculum.
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
The council tax bills are tricky to avoid though.
What was the justification for adding council tax bills? They increase as much as people think they can get away with politically (avoiding a referendum if possible) and the social care levy meant many County Council's increased rates by almost 5% this year.
It forms part of the 'basket' of goods for 75+% of the country ?
Tragic, this book, alongside LOTR, had the most profound effect on me as a child*
The Biloxi School District got complaints about the wording in “To Kill A Mockingbird” — an American classic being taught in 8th grade English Language Arts classes — and pulled it from the curriculum.
Ruth will finally reach the apogee of her brand of ersatz bonhomie.
She is easily the best retail politician in the UK but she's tested EU+ and is therefore unacceptable to the Horde.
Ruth's EU+ condition seems to vary considerably depending on the climate. Fwiw I think she genuinely believes in the EU, but it comes a very poor third to preserving the Union and the advancement of the Tory party (fourth if you include her personal ambition).
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
The council tax bills are tricky to avoid though.
What was the justification for adding council tax bills? They increase as much as people think they can get away with politically (avoiding a referendum if possible) and the social care levy meant many County Council's increased rates by almost 5% this year.
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
What on earth is "men's base layer top"?
A vest?
Would you need a vest with all that cider and gin to keep you warm?
Very good point. Cider seems to be on the list no less than 3 times. Have they got an enthusiast arguing, well, all my wages go on it.
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
What on earth is "men's base layer top"?
A vest?
Would you need a vest with all that cider and gin to keep you warm?
Very good point. Cider seems to be on the list no less than 3 times. Have they got an enthusiast arguing, well, all my wages go on it.
If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
Don't know who that is but he was easily the most partisan contributor to the debate and looked confused when told the big spenders' money had gone on Remain
Don't know who that is but he was easily the most partisan contributor to the debate and looked confused when told the big spenders' money had gone on Remain
He's certainly partisan when it comes to polls (that was when Jezza and Lab were polling terribly, mind).
'Parliament set to consider a bill to ban election polls'
If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government. Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!
Yes - though I don't agree with Mike's comment that the Local Elections in May confirmed poll predictions of a Tory landslide. They implied a Tory lead of 11% and a Tory majority of 40 - 60 - according to John Curtice.
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
What on earth is "men's base layer top"?
A vest?
Would you need a vest with all that cider and gin to keep you warm?
Very good point. Cider seems to be on the list no less than 3 times. Have they got an enthusiast arguing, well, all my wages go on it.
If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government. Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!
And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?
When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?
Best way to avoid inflation is to not purchase anything in the basket of good - particularly the new additions:
Half chocolate-coated biscuits Non-dairy milk Flavoured water Gin, bottle Flavoured cider, bottle Apple cider, four-can pack* Men’s base layer top Cycle helmet Average council tax bills in Great Britain Average rates bills in Northern Ireland Cough liquid Child’s scooter Jigsaw (now very popular with adults) Cider
The council tax bills are tricky to avoid though.
What was the justification for adding council tax bills? They increase as much as people think they can get away with politically (avoiding a referendum if possible) and the social care levy meant many County Council's increased rates by almost 5% this year.
It forms part of the 'basket' of goods for 75+% of the country ?
I've taken a look at the ONS' explanation which says that it is only used as part of CPIH rather than CPI, which is fine in my view.
My principle objection to its inclusion in the traditional CPI index would be it isn't representative and is unlikely to have a knock-on effect to other items.
If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government. Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!
And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?
When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?
The 2016 referendum was between two options:
- Semi-detached membership - Brexit
The next referendum should be between two options:
If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government. Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!
And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?
When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?
The 2016 referendum was between two options:
- Semi-detached membership - Brexit
The next referendum should be between two options:
- Whatever Brexit really means - Full membership
Even in the latter case we would only vote for EFTA now not the Euro and then only once we have got immigration down
Fascinating piece... quote in the Guardian from Kemi Badenoch’s pice in the Telegraph. She writes that she 'asked two of my staff members what they thought of the increased enthusiasm for Corbyn. Separated by 30 years, I listened to these two Conservatives, argue about the problem with young people. It was illuminating. My head of office vividly remembered going hungry every time there was a strike and her father lost his wages. The 3-day week, waiting months for a telephone line and how terrible British Rail was. The carnage after a Left-wing government was obvious. She had seen socialism fail, again and again. “Look at what’s happening in Venezuela!”. I watched my 23 year old researcher’s eyes deaden as she said that.
“Yeah, what about Venezuela?” he asked. “I don’t care about Venezuela. I care about what’s happening here. Yes, you waited 6 months for a telephone line, but my family’s been waiting years for a mobile phone signal in my house, the trains are still late but more expensive and I still live at home because a cheap flat is ten times my salary”.
If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government. Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!
And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?
When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?
The 2016 referendum was between two options:
- Semi-detached membership - Brexit
The next referendum should be between two options:
- Whatever Brexit really means - Full membership
That would be fine because Brexit would win easily. The Uk wouldn't sign up to ever closer union and the Euro.
That would be fine because Brexit would win easily. The Uk wouldn't sign up to ever closer union and the Euro.
You realise that's exactly the mistake Cameron made in offering an in/out referendum? He thought putting the nuclear option on the other side of the equation would guarantee victory.
Depends whether you are rounding half up (which means -0.5 goes to 0, 0.5 goes to 1), rounding half down (which means -0.5 goes to -1, 0.5 goes to 0), rounding half away from zero (in which case -0.5 goes to -1, 0.5 goes to 1) or rounding half towards zero (in which case -0.5 goes to 0, 0.5 goes to 0).
Your software should (but probably doesn't) tell you what half-rounding rule is in place.
Unless you are HMRC, in which case rounding is carefully set out to be ambiguous and deeply confusing
Yes - though I don't agree with Mike's comment that the Local Elections in May confirmed poll predictions of a Tory landslide. They implied a Tory lead of 11% and a Tory majority of 40 - 60 - according to John Curtice.
The Tories actually went up from the local elections from 38% to 42% in the general election, it was just Labour went up more from 27% to 40%.
The biggest change from the local elections to the general election was the LDs collapsed from 18% to 7% most of which went to Labour.
If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government. Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!
And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?
When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?
The 2016 referendum was between two options:
- Semi-detached membership - Brexit
The next referendum should be between two options:
- Whatever Brexit really means - Full membership
Or it could be - Whatever Brexit really means - Cameron's deal (which is looking better every day)
You realise that's exactly the mistake Cameron made in offering an in/out referendum? He thought putting the nuclear option on the other side of the equation would guarantee victory.
Er no. He gave an in/out referendum because that was the only thing he could offer. Since there were no treaties nor other changes to the EU pending at the time he could not offer a referendum on anything except in/out.
I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.
logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1
Shirley?
I'd have said the exact opposite... 0.5 is closer to 1... so -0.5 is closer to -1. Surely you have to be symmetrical around the x=0 axis.
There are advantages and disadvantages to up, down, towards zero and away from zero in different circumstances (from minimizing range variance to guaranteeing that you are not overpaying, for example) No particular scheme is "correct".
If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government. Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!
And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?
When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?
The 2016 referendum was between two options:
- Semi-detached membership - Brexit
The next referendum should be between two options:
- Whatever Brexit really means - Full membership
Or it could be - Whatever Brexit really means - Cameron's deal (which is looking better every day)
Cameron's deal (which was a waste of paper anyway) is no longer on offer.
That would be fine because Brexit would win easily. The Uk wouldn't sign up to ever closer union and the Euro.
You realise that's exactly the mistake Cameron made in offering an in/out referendum? He thought putting the nuclear option on the other side of the equation would guarantee victory.
I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.
logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1
Shirley?
I'm unsure that there's any convention over this wrt rounding up, down, away from zero etc. But as an engineer, there's a danger in saying '0' when '-0.5' is meant. Zero is taken too readily to mean nothing is present, when there is actually something present. Likewise, there might be a special meaning in the fact it is negative. Hence, in the absence of any other rules, I would round down to -1. Likewise, with +0.5 I would round up to +1.
Yes - though I don't agree with Mike's comment that the Local Elections in May confirmed poll predictions of a Tory landslide. They implied a Tory lead of 11% and a Tory majority of 40 - 60 - according to John Curtice.
The Tories actually went up from the local elections from 38% to 42% in the general election, it was just Labour went up more from 27% to 40%.
The biggest change from the local elections to the general election was the LDs collapsed from 18% to 7% most of which went to Labour.
I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.
logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1
Shirley?
I'm unsure that there's any convention over this wrt rounding up, down, away from zero etc. But as an engineer, there's a danger in saying '0' when '-0.5' is meant. Zero is taken too readily to mean nothing is present, when there is actually something present. Likewise, there might be a special meaning in the fact it is negative. Hence, in the absence of any other rules, I would round down to -1. Likewise, with +0.5 I would round up to +1.
So you'd pick a hard "round away from zero" for any values abs(v) > e where e is some value that represents the error in measurement.
Depends whether you are rounding half up (which means -0.5 goes to 0, 0.5 goes to 1), rounding half down (which means -0.5 goes to -1, 0.5 goes to 0), rounding half away from zero (in which case -0.5 goes to -1, 0.5 goes to 1) or rounding half towards zero (in which case -0.5 goes to 0, 0.5 goes to 0).
Your software should (but probably doesn't) tell you what half-rounding rule is in place.
Unless you are HMRC, in which case rounding is carefully set out to be ambiguous and deeply confusing
Yes - though I don't agree with Mike's comment that the Local Elections in May confirmed poll predictions of a Tory landslide. They implied a Tory lead of 11% and a Tory majority of 40 - 60 - according to John Curtice.
The Tories actually went up from the local elections from 38% to 42% in the general election, it was just Labour went up more from 27% to 40%.
The biggest change from the local elections to the general election was the LDs collapsed from 18% to 7% most of which went to Labour.
That was not the point he was making though.
No, but for Mr HYUFD there must be nothing published which doesn’t reflect well on the Tories, or blame anything which does go awry of ‘the others’.
Depends whether you are rounding half up (which means -0.5 goes to 0, 0.5 goes to 1), rounding half down (which means -0.5 goes to -1, 0.5 goes to 0), rounding half away from zero (in which case -0.5 goes to -1, 0.5 goes to 1) or rounding half towards zero (in which case -0.5 goes to 0, 0.5 goes to 0).
Your software should (but probably doesn't) tell you what half-rounding rule is in place.
Unless you are HMRC, in which case rounding is carefully set out to be ambiguous and deeply confusing
Yes - though I don't agree with Mike's comment that the Local Elections in May confirmed poll predictions of a Tory landslide. They implied a Tory lead of 11% and a Tory majority of 40 - 60 - according to John Curtice.
The Tories actually went up from the local elections from 38% to 42% in the general election, it was just Labour went up more from 27% to 40%.
The biggest change from the local elections to the general election was the LDs collapsed from 18% to 7% most of which went to Labour.
That was not the point he was making though.
No, but for Mr HYUFD there must be nothing published which doesn’t reflect well on the Tories, or blame anything which does go awry of ‘the others’.
What is wrong with what I said? It is factually correct that the Tory vote increased from the local to the general elections but that the Labour vote increased more. The main losers from the period from the local elections to the general election were the LDs as their voteshare fell by 11%
I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.
logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1
Shirley?
I'd have said the exact opposite... 0.5 is closer to 1... so -0.5 is closer to -1. Surely you have to be symmetrical around the x=0 axis.
Only if there's something magically special about 0. Being consistent if you round up then 0 is up on -0.5
If you view a set of numbers to two decimal places then:
4 is the range 3.50 to 4.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places) 3 is the range 2.50 to 3.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places) 2 is the range 1.50 to 2.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places) 1 is the range 0.50 to 1.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
So logically and consistently 0 should be the range -0.50 to 0.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
Otherwise 0 contains a range of just 99 numbers to 2 decimal places and I see no reason why it should. The core of mathematics is to be consistent in how you treat your numbers.
You realise that's exactly the mistake Cameron made in offering an in/out referendum? He thought putting the nuclear option on the other side of the equation would guarantee victory.
Er no. He gave an in/out referendum because that was the only thing he could offer. Since there were no treaties nor other changes to the EU pending at the time he could not offer a referendum on anything except in/out.
To be fair William has a point. Let's say there is a second referendum: Theresa's deal vs. EU "all in", I expect there would be a spike in support for the latter, as some Remainers realised the money and EU freedoms were what was decisive for them, even if some might otherwise have preferred to keep the pound.
I'd expect about 65-35 on Leave vs. Ultra-Remain in such a scenario, whereas it might previously have been carried by 75-25 on a Euroref. Worst case: 60-40. Which wouldn't kill Europhilia in the UK for good, as a 2:1 margin would.
Where William and I differ is that he thinks Brexit would lead to a much larger swing that'd give ultra-Remain a clear majority, whereas I think the swing would fall well short.
Yes - though I don't agree with Mike's comment that the Local Elections in May confirmed poll predictions of a Tory landslide. They implied a Tory lead of 11% and a Tory majority of 40 - 60 - according to John Curtice.
The Tories actually went up from the local elections from 38% to 42% in the general election, it was just Labour went up more from 27% to 40%.
The biggest change from the local elections to the general election was the LDs collapsed from 18% to 7% most of which went to Labour.
That was not the point he was making though.
No, but for Mr HYUFD there must be nothing published which doesn’t reflect well on the Tories, or blame anything which does go awry of ‘the others’.
What is wrong with what I said? It is factually correct that the Tory vote increased from the local to the general elections but that the Labour vote increased more. The main losers from the period from the local elections to the general election were the LDs as their voteshare fell by 11%
It's an irony that Corbyn's ability to suddenly perform properly and his uniting of the Left made more of a difference than all the (legit) complaints about TMay.
If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government. Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!
And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?
When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?
The 2016 referendum was between two options:
- Semi-detached membership - Brexit
The next referendum should be between two options:
- Whatever Brexit really means - Full membership
Or it could be - Whatever Brexit really means - Cameron's deal (which is looking better every day)
If they sweetened the deal on the latter, with free movement reforms/emergency brake, then that could be very competitive.
I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.
logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1
Shirley?
I'd have said the exact opposite... 0.5 is closer to 1... so -0.5 is closer to -1. Surely you have to be symmetrical around the x=0 axis.
Only if there's something magically special about 0. Being consistent if you round up then 0 is up on -0.5
If you view a set of numbers to two decimal places then:
4 is the range 3.50 to 4.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places) 3 is the range 2.50 to 3.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places) 2 is the range 1.50 to 2.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places) 1 is the range 0.50 to 1.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
So logically and consistently 0 should be the range -0.50 to 0.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
Otherwise 0 contains a range of just 99 numbers to 2 decimal places and I see no reason why it should. The core of mathematics is to be consistent in how you treat your numbers.
By talking about "in the range" you are probably thinking about rounding for bucketing (e.g. for a histogram) in which case, you are probably (but not definitively) right to choose that rounding scheme.
MIke, I know this advice is coming in too late for you, given the time difference. But I'd eschew focussing on data you have to refer to on your phone and speak only to what you know so well you don't have to refer to any papers or other means of data storage.
They will not be looking for the level of detail you have access to in those records (and if they do, you can offer to get back to them offline with the data they ask for). What they will want is the big picture stuff - the summation of your wisdom. And then they will ask things you will not have the answers to - a lot of 'why' questions.
Stick to what you know, promise only what you can deliver, and say "I don't know" when you don't. If you absolutely have to take notes in with you, keep them to one side/screen. Then you have no reason to be nervous.
[This is what I have gleaned from 4 years as spokesman for a globally high profile organization, being a talking head on all the main US broadcast and cable channels, and having given expert testimony on several occasions]
If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government. Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!
And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?
When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?
The 2016 referendum was between two options:
- Semi-detached membership - Brexit
The next referendum should be between two options:
- Whatever Brexit really means - Full membership
Or it could be - Whatever Brexit really means - Cameron's deal (which is looking better every day)
Cameron's deal (which was a waste of paper anyway) is no longer on offer.
I'm struggling to remember, but as I far as I recall he himself never tried to sell it.
If we think there's chaos now, wait until a second referendum gives a slight win to either side.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
It wouldn't be a rerun of the Referendum. It would be a new referendum on whether the country accepts what has been negotiated by the government. Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!
And if that gets rejected then what next? Do we revert to the Lisbon status quo or do we exit with no deal at all?
When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?
The 2016 referendum was between two options:
- Semi-detached membership - Brexit
The next referendum should be between two options:
- Whatever Brexit really means - Full membership
Or it could be - Whatever Brexit really means - Cameron's deal (which is looking better every day)
Cameron's deal (which was a waste of paper anyway) is no longer on offer.
I'm struggling to remember, but as I far as I recall he himself never tried to sell it.
It was a titanic offer - it sank on its first outing.
Apologies for the negativity but.... I really don't think polling/election predictions/psephology is something the lords should consider official business. Leave it to the electoral commission/BPC etc.
There's an insane amount of really difficult, dull but essential brexit scrutiny for the lords to be getting on with. They should be working overtime on economic impact assessments and whatnot.
Hope the day goes well, anyway. I don't blame you for accepting the invitation!
The couple of times I've seen you on TV you came across pretty well.
It's of political interest because of the view that polls should be banned in the final week(s), as in many other countries.
Apologies for the negativity but.... I really don't think polling/election predictions/psephology is something the lords should consider official business. Leave it to the electoral commission/BPC etc.
There's an insane amount of really difficult, dull but essential brexit scrutiny for the lords to be getting on with. They should be working overtime on economic impact assessments and whatnot.
Hope the day goes well, anyway. I don't blame you for accepting the invitation!
The couple of times I've seen you on TV you came across pretty well.
It's of political interest because of the view that polls should be banned in the final week(s), as in many other countries.
Yes - though I don't agree with Mike's comment that the Local Elections in May confirmed poll predictions of a Tory landslide. They implied a Tory lead of 11% and a Tory majority of 40 - 60 - according to John Curtice.
The Tories actually went up from the local elections from 38% to 42% in the general election, it was just Labour went up more from 27% to 40%.
The biggest change from the local elections to the general election was the LDs collapsed from 18% to 7% most of which went to Labour.
That was not the point he was making though.
No, but for Mr HYUFD there must be nothing published which doesn’t reflect well on the Tories, or blame anything which does go awry of ‘the others’.
What is wrong with what I said? It is factually correct that the Tory vote increased from the local to the general elections but that the Labour vote increased more. The main losers from the period from the local elections to the general election were the LDs as their voteshare fell by 11%
It's an irony that Corbyn's ability to suddenly perform properly and his uniting of the Left made more of a difference than all the (legit) complaints about TMay.
It was Corbyn's uniting the left which was the biggest factor in the election result yes along with May's decision to include the dementia tax in the Tory manifesto
Fascinating piece... quote in the Guardian from Kemi Badenoch’s pice in the Telegraph. She writes that she 'asked two of my staff members what they thought of the increased enthusiasm for Corbyn. Separated by 30 years, I listened to these two Conservatives, argue about the problem with young people. It was illuminating. My head of office vividly remembered going hungry every time there was a strike and her father lost his wages. The 3-day week, waiting months for a telephone line and how terrible British Rail was. The carnage after a Left-wing government was obvious. She had seen socialism fail, again and again. “Look at what’s happening in Venezuela!”. I watched my 23 year old researcher’s eyes deaden as she said that.
“Yeah, what about Venezuela?” he asked. “I don’t care about Venezuela. I care about what’s happening here. Yes, you waited 6 months for a telephone line, but my family’s been waiting years for a mobile phone signal in my house, the trains are still late but more expensive and I still live at home because a cheap flat is ten times my salary”.
Kemi's Telegraph piece contains something else: In a world where people genuinely believe the fixed pie fallacy – that a penny more for you means a penny less for someone else, that wealth is not created but distributed – policies to reward wealth creators make no sense.
I don't see why crossing the x axis should have any impact on the rounding convention used.
logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1
Shirley?
I'm unsure that there's any convention over this wrt rounding up, down, away from zero etc. But as an engineer, there's a danger in saying '0' when '-0.5' is meant. Zero is taken too readily to mean nothing is present, when there is actually something present. Likewise, there might be a special meaning in the fact it is negative. Hence, in the absence of any other rules, I would round down to -1. Likewise, with +0.5 I would round up to +1.
Comments
Key point is everyone's inflation is different.
Why can't they just call it that?
*overpriced
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/board/2/boundaries
"City of Durham and Easington" is one of the more interesting proposals I've seen so far. Broxtowe becomes Broxtowe & Hucknall, with Beeston moving into Nottingham South.
https://twitter.com/camusson/status/920228197052149761
Ruth will finally reach the apogee of her brand of ersatz bonhomie.
A: Being a pilot landing a plane and running out of runway and being so scared of the photos the media will print that you steer away from the thing that's designed to bring the plane to a stop.
http://www.baldwinaviation.com/single-post/2017/08/03/FAA-Confirms-Cases-of-EMAS-Phobia
Hang on - just starting.
You'd just get tactical data leaks, local strawman and voodoo polls and uninformed speculation referring back to the last polling point. And both parties will just say it's too close to call anyway.
The best thing to do is to accept the margins of error in the data/data sampling and challenge the analysis.
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/8ec1e7d8-7d87-4c43-ad0e-0bde384af1c6
That cost the Tories scores of marginals. If it hadn't happened (or Corbyn had been kept down to 35-36%, say) May would have a very healthy majority.
Very few saw it coming.
Boris Boris Yeltsin
(It was funny at the time!)
So good they named him twice.
Fwiw I think she genuinely believes in the EU, but it comes a very poor third to preserving the Union and the advancement of the Tory party (fourth if you include her personal ambition).
That's that settled then.
Is nobody else uneasy about a second ref since politicians of all parties insisted there would not be a second referendum in the run up to the first? From the PM downwards. If we want a lot of Leave voters to be finally and irrevocably alienated from parliamentary politics a second referendum is just the trick. They would be right to feel cheated.
I went for -1
https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245335095697408
https://twitter.com/jon_mellon/status/920245418818228224
https://twitter.com/ConservativesGE/status/920208319645659136
'Parliament set to consider a bill to ban election polls'
http://tinyurl.com/yaun9l6c
Currently that decision will be taken by MPs. Take back control put it to the people!
When was the referendum on Lisbon that made it the status quo?
My principle objection to its inclusion in the traditional CPI index would be it isn't representative and is unlikely to have a knock-on effect to other items.
- Semi-detached membership
- Brexit
The next referendum should be between two options:
- Whatever Brexit really means
- Full membership
My head of office vividly remembered going hungry every time there was a strike and her father lost his wages. The 3-day week, waiting months for a telephone line and how terrible British Rail was. The carnage after a Left-wing government was obvious. She had seen socialism fail, again and again. “Look at what’s happening in Venezuela!”. I watched my 23 year old researcher’s eyes deaden as she said that.
“Yeah, what about Venezuela?” he asked. “I don’t care about Venezuela. I care about what’s happening here. Yes, you waited 6 months for a telephone line, but my family’s been waiting years for a mobile phone signal in my house, the trains are still late but more expensive and I still live at home because a cheap flat is ten times my salary”.
Ref. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/oct/17/david-davis-brexit-statement-boris-johnson-holding-up-progress-in-brexit-talks-claims-merkel-ally-politics-live
Your software should (but probably doesn't) tell you what half-rounding rule is in place.
Unless you are HMRC, in which case rounding is carefully set out to be ambiguous and deeply confusing
logically, the minus shouldn't make any difference. -0.5 rounds up to 0, -0.51 rounds down to -1
Shirley?
The biggest change from the local elections to the general election was the LDs collapsed from 18% to 7% most of which went to Labour.
Surely you have to be symmetrical around the x=0 axis.
- Whatever Brexit really means
- Cameron's deal (which is looking better every day)
Pole dancing could become an Olympic event 'in the next ten years'
The activity, which was once associated with strip clubs, has become an international fitness movement
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/pole-dancing-could-become-an-olympic-event-in-the-next-ten-years-a3660346.html
I've been educated
25
- D Abbott
If you view a set of numbers to two decimal places then:
4 is the range 3.50 to 4.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
3 is the range 2.50 to 3.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
2 is the range 1.50 to 2.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
1 is the range 0.50 to 1.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
So logically and consistently
0 should be the range -0.50 to 0.49 (100 numbers to 2 decimal places)
Otherwise 0 contains a range of just 99 numbers to 2 decimal places and I see no reason why it should. The core of mathematics is to be consistent in how you treat your numbers.
I'd expect about 65-35 on Leave vs. Ultra-Remain in such a scenario, whereas it might previously have been carried by 75-25 on a Euroref. Worst case: 60-40. Which wouldn't kill Europhilia in the UK for good, as a 2:1 margin would.
Where William and I differ is that he thinks Brexit would lead to a much larger swing that'd give ultra-Remain a clear majority, whereas I think the swing would fall well short.
It's an irony that Corbyn's ability to suddenly perform properly and his uniting of the Left made more of a difference than all the (legit) complaints about TMay.
They will not be looking for the level of detail you have access to in those records (and if they do, you can offer to get back to them offline with the data they ask for). What they will want is the big picture stuff - the summation of your wisdom. And then they will ask things you will not have the answers to - a lot of 'why' questions.
Stick to what you know, promise only what you can deliver, and say "I don't know" when you don't. If you absolutely have to take notes in with you, keep them to one side/screen. Then you have no reason to be nervous.
[This is what I have gleaned from 4 years as spokesman for a globally high profile organization, being a talking head on all the main US broadcast and cable channels, and having given expert testimony on several occasions]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rounding
It was a titanic offer - it sank on its first outing.
Seaweed is a fruit? Who knew?
In a world where people genuinely believe the fixed pie fallacy – that a penny more for you means a penny less for someone else, that wealth is not created but distributed – policies to reward wealth creators make no sense.
There is an implied criticism of the left but in fact it is the right that is most prone to this fallacy, as we see in their emphasis on cuts and austerity rather than economic growth.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/16/right-has-winning-vision-doesnt-speak-language-todays-voters/