politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori November 2013 Issues Index and Local By-Election
Immigration is in second place, as it has been for the last five months, is race relations/immigration, with 35% concerned, but this fieldwork happened before recent before the recent migration data.
Comments
-
No price lengthening across the board tonight. Latest bookies to adjust: Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum 18 September 2014
Yes 5/1 (BetVictor)
No 1/5 (Betfair)0 -
It was my thread what did it?Stuart_Dickson said:No price lengthening across the board tonight. Latest bookies to adjust: Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum 18 September 2014
Yes 5/1 (BetVictor)
No 1/5 (Betfair)0 -
Terrific SNP result there in Caithness, especially given the reason for the by-election being held. Up 6 points on 2012 and steady on the result from the by-election in the ward in May this year, which was much more favourable for the SNP as that one had been due to an Independent councillor resigning.
I can't wait til the bookies start listing prices for Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (John Thurso MP, Lib Dem, Maj. = 4,826). The Scottish Lib Dems don't even have the guts to put up candidates these days. A fatal error in seats they know they must shortly defend.0 -
Very possibly. Although I think that this article this morning may also have furrowed a few brows:TheScreamingEagles said:
It was my thread what did it?Stuart_Dickson said:No price lengthening across the board tonight. Latest bookies to adjust: Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum 18 September 2014
Yes 5/1 (BetVictor)
No 1/5 (Betfair)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10481280/Scotland-The-case-for-the-Union-is-still-strong-so-why-not-make-it.html
I wonder if David Cameron has seen a recording of that STV debate between his man Carmichael and the Deputy FM? If he has he must be filling his breeks.0 -
Belated condolences to Mike, Robert and family.
FPT: Question for those who know Parliamentary Procedures well. Now that the Wharton bill has passed the Commons, if it dies in the Lords can it be re-introduced next year and have the Parliament Act used to force it through with Commons approval alone?0 -
I've never given the matter of Scottish Independence any thought and so don't have a view, but don't you think there is a big "I want it to happen so much that I want to convince everyone its going to"? about the pro Indys?Stuart_Dickson said:No price lengthening across the board tonight. Latest bookies to adjust: Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum 18 September 2014
Yes 5/1 (BetVictor)
No 1/5 (Betfair)
5/1 still implies an 83% chance of failure, yet reading this site it seems like its almost a certainty0 -
Ypu're assuming that Cameron is concerned enough over Independence to "fill his breeks". Is it not possible that Cameron is torn and possibly indifferent to Scottish independence? Or potentially opposed to the notion but not terrified and happy to see the silver lining if it happens?Stuart_Dickson said:
Very possibly. Although I think that this article this morning may also have furrowed a few brows:TheScreamingEagles said:
It was my thread what did it?Stuart_Dickson said:No price lengthening across the board tonight. Latest bookies to adjust: Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum 18 September 2014
Yes 5/1 (BetVictor)
No 1/5 (Betfair)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10481280/Scotland-The-case-for-the-Union-is-still-strong-so-why-not-make-it.html
I wonder if David Cameron has seen a recording of that STV debate between his man Carmichael and the Deputy FM? If he has he must be filling his breeks.
Not that he could ever officially say it.
0 -
Race Relations shouldn't be categorised with immigration in my view
The worries about immigration have more to do with the economy, unemployment, the NHS and schools than race for most people I would have thought.
0 -
UKIP outperforming the polls again.0
-
New Thread....Thank God! Channel 4 are running a piece on the revival of House Music and PB are discussing which airline has the best Club Class seats. I was losing the will to live. Five ten fifteen hours on a plane what difference does it make? Feel sorry for the poor buggers behind you particularly the smokers.
In other news. Cameron has completely lost it and I agree with Tim and others that he's just not very good.0 -
FPT
For those who don't get Populus's weekly survey on what people remember about the news, this week nobody remembers anything, more or less. 11% manage to recall the typhoon, 9% recall the alleged slaves, 8% think they've seen something about immigration, and everything else is lower. Scotland, Watkins, Nigella, Flowers, Iran, energy prices and Plebgate are all also-rans. The survey was done over the last two days, so really quite striking that people have barely noticed the Scottish debate.
Something to remember as we shout to each other that the latest political development is going to DESTROY one or another party FOREVER. We politics nerds are the stamp collectors of modern life, earnestly obsessed, mildly despised, capable of raising faint public interest on rare occasions, and risibly amazed that our friends aren't as excited as we are that we've seen a report of an inverted Comoros Blue.0 -
House music is the nads.Roger said:New Thread....Thank God! Channel 4 are running a piece on the revival of House Music and PB are discussing which airline has the best Club Class seats. I was losing the will to live. Five ten fifteen hours on a plane what difference does it make? Feel sorry for the poor buggers behind you particularly the smokers.
In other news. Cameron has completely lost it and I agree with Tim and others that he's just not very good.0 -
Familiar to a Kipper I suppose...isam said:but don't you think there is a big "I want it to happen so much that I want to convince everyone its going to"? about the pro Indys?
0 -
The time for fear mongering is just before polling day when there isnt scope for the ridiculousness of the idea to be exposed. This kind of stuff is ok for the Daily Express for now but it wouldnt make sense for Darling and co to be spouting it themselves.SeanT said:
Even if I am wrong, which I am not, they should be fear-mongering.0 -
Because it is more scare-mongering. The No campaign need a more positive message.SeanT said:So immigration/race is the 2nd most important issue for the fifth month running, yet we are supposed to believe England will happily accept Scotland running a Please Immigrate Here policy, along with an entirely open Anglo-Scots border, without the English batting an electoral eyelid.
Hint: this isn't going to happen. If Scotland votes yes, and invites the world to come live in Glasgae, then the English will demand passport checks at Berwick, whatever the Nats say.
Why aren't the Better Together campaign all over this stuff? They are totally useless.
0 -
green levy stuff leaks out.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-251592600 -
How so?Theuniondivvie said:
Familiar to a Kipper I suppose...isam said:but don't you think there is a big "I want it to happen so much that I want to convince everyone its going to"? about the pro Indys?
I've never said I expect people to vote to leave the EU, just because I think we should.
0 -
Yes, you can think that but too many it is the same. "Too many bloody foreigners over here"isam said:Race Relations shouldn't be categorised with immigration in my view
The worries about immigration have more to do with the economy, unemployment, the NHS and schools than race for most people I would have thought.0 -
Roger, I'm tempted to do a thread entitledRoger said:New Thread....Thank God! Channel 4 are running a piece on the revival of House Music and PB are discussing which airline has the best Club Class seats. I was losing the will to live. Five ten fifteen hours on a plane what difference does it make? Feel sorry for the poor buggers behind you particularly the smokers.
In other news. Cameron has completely lost it and I agree with Tim and others that he's just not very good.
"What pop song should Ed and Labour choose as their anthem in 2015, in the way Things Can Only Get Better by D:Ream was used by Blair in 1997"0 -
I hadnt even noticed I had a side tbh. All I've said is that the idea of a frontier being built between England and Scotland is silly and that the people who have run with it so far havent made a huge success of it.SeanT said:the game changer is needed by your side. Or hadn't you noticed?
0 -
Almost every poll points to a large victory for No does it Sean? According to the latest published poll the Yes side needs a swing of just 4.5 points. That points to a wafer-thin victory for No, and we still have 10 months of SLab cock ups to go.SeanT said:
Er, right now almost every poll points to a large victory for No, so the game changer is needed by your side. Or hadn't you noticed? But I want the victory to be EVEN BIGGER, so the idea of dismembering Britain is killed for two generations.Neil said:
Some already have, you just havent noticed. It hasnt been the game changer you might have hoped for.SeanT said:
The Better Togetherers should be already injecting the idea of border controls into the debate. Just add that seasoning of extra doubt.0 -
"Independent GAIN from SNP on the fourth count on a swing of 3% from Ind to SNP"
Could someone please explain to me the mathematics of the above ? If it is a GAIN then relatively the Independent must have done better than the SNP. Unless it was a HOLD.
0 -
The No campaign needs a charisma injection and a positive message.0
-
If there really is a strong feeling amongst Scots that Yes had a decent chance of winning, shouldn't they all be steaming into the 5/1?! I mean even if they thought it was a 70/30 chance it would be one of the best value bets ever
As I say I have no view on whether the result should be Yes or No0 -
Not to worry ! Hadrian's Wall will stop the spongers coming in.tim said:
It's a terrifying thought that the hundreds of millions with the right to move to England now might have the right to move to England after landing at Prestwick Airport in 2016.SeanT said:So immigration/race is the 2nd most important issue for the fifth month running, yet we are supposed to believe England will happily accept Scotland running a Please Immigrate Here policy, along with an entirely open Anglo-Scots border, without the English batting an electoral eyelid.
Hint: this isn't going to happen. If Scotland votes yes, and invites the world to come live in Glasgae, then the English will demand passport checks at Berwick, whatever the Nats say.
Why aren't the Better Together campaign all over this stuff? They are totally useless.0 -
There is no No campaign Sean. There are a whole host of No campaigns, with zero co-ordination between them.SeanT said:
Even if I am wrong, which I am not, they should be fear-mongering.Neil said:
Maybe they've thought it through?SeanT said:
Why aren't the Better Together campaign all over this stuff? They are totally useless.
Whether you like it or not, the divergent immigration policies of rUK and indy Scotland IMPLY border controls. The job of a No campaign is to put the fecking wind up the voters, and frighten them into voting Status Quo.
I have the horrible sense the No campaign are just drifting complacently along.
My personal favourites are the numerous loose cannons, with Ian Davidson MP the current star of the crop.0 -
@Eagle
"Roger, I'm tempted to do a thread entitled
"What pop song should Ed and Labour choose as their anthem in 2015, in the way Things Can Only Get Better by D:Ream was used by Blair in 1997""
Excellent idea but you'll need a different clientele. People who spend their time discussing the relative comfort of Club Class seats are probably not too interested in the arts in any
guise
PS Was the Hacienda before your time?0 -
The very sensible and occasional PB contributor Hopi Sen has tweeted this
Hopi Sen @hopisen 1m
Q: if Indy Scotland is, even temporarily, outside EU, won't rUK have to have some sort of border control? Eg see this
http://ec.europa.eu/immigration/tab3.do?subSec=16&language=7$en0 -
Enjoying a few too many glasses of wine tonight.. this video has really taken me away. The VO does get a bit preachy at times, but wow...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqxENMKaeCU
0 -
Sadly it was before my time, however, I nearly bought an apartment in the Hacienda.Roger said:@Eagle
"Roger, I'm tempted to do a thread entitled
"What pop song should Ed and Labour choose as their anthem in 2015, in the way Things Can Only Get Better by D:Ream was used by Blair in 1997""
Excellent idea but you'll need a different clientele. People who spend their time discussing the relative comfort of Club Class seats are probably not too interested in the arts in any
guise
PS Was the Hacienda before your time?0 -
I know what I like ...Roger said:@Eagle
"Roger, I'm tempted to do a thread entitled
"What pop song should Ed and Labour choose as their anthem in 2015, in the way Things Can Only Get Better by D:Ream was used by Blair in 1997""
Excellent idea but you'll need a different clientele. People who spend their time discussing the relative comfort of Club Class seats are probably not too interested in the arts in any
guise
PS Was the Hacienda before your time?
0 -
Stella Creasy having a rough time with the Any Questions audience in Suffolk.0
-
isam said:
How so?Theuniondivvie said:
Familiar to a Kipper I suppose...isam said:but don't you think there is a big "I want it to happen so much that I want to convince everyone its going to"? about the pro Indys?
I've never said I expect people to vote to leave the EU, just because I think we should.
Not necessarily saying you were that Kipper, just some of your compadres.
Also I wasn't setting the bar of UKIP unrealistic expectations as high as EU withdrawal, more that expecting half a dozen UKIP MPs is a triumph of hope over experience.0 -
Er no. With one possible exception the Kippers on here - and most of those I talk to in the real world outside of the PB bubble - are entirely realistic about their prospects both electorally and the potential difficulties with the referendum.Theuniondivvie said:
Familiar to a Kipper I suppose...isam said:but don't you think there is a big "I want it to happen so much that I want to convince everyone its going to"? about the pro Indys?
The difference is that we at least have the consolation of seeing regular leads for our cause in the polls. The Scots Nationalists (for all that I support their aims) do seem to be in denial about the polling so far.0 -
That's a rookie's error Sean: believing the polls that confirm your view and disbelieving the polls that challenge your view.SeanT said:
Only Panelbase, a small sofa-making company in Arbroath, have it that close. They are clearly an outlier (they even had Yes ahead at one point).Stuart_Dickson said:
Almost every poll points to a large victory for No does it Sean? According to the latest published poll the Yes side needs a swing of just 4.5 points. That points to a wafer-thin victory for No, and we still have 10 months of SLab cock ups to go.SeanT said:
Er, right now almost every poll points to a large victory for No, so the game changer is needed by your side. Or hadn't you noticed? But I want the victory to be EVEN BIGGER, so the idea of dismembering Britain is killed for two generations.Neil said:
Some already have, you just havent noticed. It hasnt been the game changer you might have hoped for.SeanT said:
The Better Togetherers should be already injecting the idea of border controls into the debate. Just add that seasoning of extra doubt.
I agree however that the trend is on your side, but you also have a long way to go. Here are the polls, let pb-ers take their pick:
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/249845-referendum-what-polls-say-about-voting-intentions-on-independence/
Mark Senior will be proud of you.
0 -
I hope that you are representative of Labour thinking on the IndyRef tim. If you are, the coming 10 months are going to be terrific fun.tim said:
The No campaign should hang on to it's 20% lead in the polls.SeanT said:
Try and say something original. Have an idea? Contribute! Suggest something positive that the No campaign could do.tim said:@SeanT
You're getting yourself very wound up about Scotland again, and you always make a fool of yourself when you post about Scotland remember?
Have you spotted any big poll movements that have sparked this spasm?
No.
Just try. Go on. Try not to be sneering partisan Tory-hating "tim" ALL THE FUCKING TIME. It's just... so..... boring.
And they should push Alistair Carmichael under a bus and let Duncan Hames do the paternity leave for Jo Swinson.
Darling will bring home the bacon.
0 -
Oh right, fair enough.Theuniondivvie said:isam said:
How so?Theuniondivvie said:
Familiar to a Kipper I suppose...isam said:but don't you think there is a big "I want it to happen so much that I want to convince everyone its going to"? about the pro Indys?
I've never said I expect people to vote to leave the EU, just because I think we should.
Not necessarily saying you were that Kipper, just some of your compadres.
Also I wasn't setting the bar of UKIP unrealistic expectations as high as EU withdrawal, more that expecting half a dozen UKIP MPs is a triumph of hope over experience.
Personally I expect over 10% of the vote but either 0 or 1 MP for UKIP in GE 20150 -
Great. Hopi Sen is influential in Labour circles. We look forward to lots of Project Fear border control stories. It is almost as though the Yes side is getting to write the No side's scripts for them.TheScreamingEagles said:The very sensible and occasional PB contributor Hopi Sen has tweeted this
Hopi Sen @hopisen 1m
Q: if Indy Scotland is, even temporarily, outside EU, won't rUK have to have some sort of border control? Eg see this
http://ec.europa.eu/immigration/tab3.do?subSec=16&language=7$en0 -
The trend, from your link, is if anything towards greater volatility and Don't Know (not Yes or No).SeanT said:
But the trend is definitely in your favour, and this is NOT a done deal. Especially when you consider turnout.Stuart_Dickson said:
That's a rookie's error Sean: believing the polls that confirm your view and disbelieving the polls that challenge your view.SeanT said:
Only Panelbase, a small sofa-making company in Arbroath, have it that close. They are clearly an outlier (they even had Yes ahead at one point).Stuart_Dickson said:
Almost every poll points to a large victory for No does it Sean? According to the latest published poll the Yes side needs a swing of just 4.5 points. That points to a wafer-thin victory for No, and we still have 10 months of SLab cock ups to go.SeanT said:
Er, right now almost every poll points to a large victory for No, so the game changer is needed by your side. Or hadn't you noticed? But I want the victory to be EVEN BIGGER, so the idea of dismembering Britain is killed for two generations.Neil said:
Some already have, you just havent noticed. It hasnt been the game changer you might have hoped for.SeanT said:
The Better Togetherers should be already injecting the idea of border controls into the debate. Just add that seasoning of extra doubt.
I agree however that the trend is on your side, but you also have a long way to go. Here are the polls, let pb-ers take their pick:
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/249845-referendum-what-polls-say-about-voting-intentions-on-independence/
Mark Senior will be proud of you.
0 -
You went to the Hacienda Tim?0
-
She is so dim she would have a rough time with the 5 o'clock club audienceAndyJS said:Stella Creasy having a rough time with the Any Questions audience in Suffolk.
0 -
I am maxed out on Yes bets. I could trade out now at a nice profit, but there is plenty more to come.isam said:
I've never given the matter of Scottish Independence any thought and so don't have a view, but don't you think there is a big "I want it to happen so much that I want to convince everyone its going to"? about the pro Indys?Stuart_Dickson said:No price lengthening across the board tonight. Latest bookies to adjust: Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum 18 September 2014
Yes 5/1 (BetVictor)
No 1/5 (Betfair)
5/1 still implies an 83% chance of failure, yet reading this site it seems like its almost a certainty
If I had any spare capital left I would invest it, but I'm afraid that barring another monster pay rise (I got 5.7% last year) I can't foresee me having much spare cash for the foreseeable.
Incidentally, I do not think that Yes is going to win. As I've said all along, I haven't got a clue who is going to win, but the current prices are just silly billy territory.
0 -
O/T:
"Bangkok Girl -- Thailand Night Life Documentary":
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqo3DA9ymOM&0 -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-07/battery-stored-solar-power-sparks-backlash-from-utilities.html?cmpid=otbrn.ent.story
This is the way to go ! Solar prices dropping. Battery prices dropping. We won't need energy companies soon.0 -
Labour is still hampered by "potentially crippling strategic weaknesses" on the economy that could harm its chances of winning the 2015 general election, according to the man who wrote the party's 2010 manifesto with Ed Miliband.
Patrick Diamond, who worked for Gordon Brown in Downing Street and is now an academic at Queen Mary University of London, says Labour is "generally not trusted to manage the economy", which means that many of its policies on other issues are not believed.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/29/labour-weak-economic-strategy-warns-brown-adviser-patrick-diamond?CMP=twt_gu0 -
Understood.Stuart_Dickson said:
I am maxed out on Yes bets. I could trade out now at a nice profit, but there is plenty more to come.isam said:
I've never given the matter of Scottish Independence any thought and so don't have a view, but don't you think there is a big "I want it to happen so much that I want to convince everyone its going to"? about the pro Indys?Stuart_Dickson said:No price lengthening across the board tonight. Latest bookies to adjust: Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum 18 September 2014
Yes 5/1 (BetVictor)
No 1/5 (Betfair)
5/1 still implies an 83% chance of failure, yet reading this site it seems like its almost a certainty
If I had any spare capital left I would invest it, but I'm afraid that barring another monster pay rise (I got 5.7% last year) I can't foresee me having much spare cash for the foreseeable.
Incidentally, I do not think that Yes is going to win. As I've said all along, I haven't got a clue who is going to win, but the current prices are just silly billy territory.
I'm off to the pub now in my new tartan shirt! Doing my bit!0 -
No, that strikes me as profoundly unlikely. For all his faults, when Cameron describes himself as a committed Unionist, I believe him. It is just that although he desperately wants to keep hold of Scotland, it is becoming increasingly clear that he hasn't got the slightest clue how to achieve that goal.Philip_Thompson said:
Ypu're assuming that Cameron is concerned enough over Independence to "fill his breeks". Is it not possible that Cameron is torn and possibly indifferent to Scottish independence? Or potentially opposed to the notion but not terrified and happy to see the silver lining if it happens?Stuart_Dickson said:
Very possibly. Although I think that this article this morning may also have furrowed a few brows:TheScreamingEagles said:
It was my thread what did it?Stuart_Dickson said:No price lengthening across the board tonight. Latest bookies to adjust: Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum 18 September 2014
Yes 5/1 (BetVictor)
No 1/5 (Betfair)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10481280/Scotland-The-case-for-the-Union-is-still-strong-so-why-not-make-it.html
I wonder if David Cameron has seen a recording of that STV debate between his man Carmichael and the Deputy FM? If he has he must be filling his breeks.
Not that he could ever officially say it.
His appointment of Alistair Darling was a masterstroke.
His appointment of Alistair Carmichael was a blopper from which No may never recover.
I can't wait to see his next move.
0 -
isam said:
Understood.Stuart_Dickson said:
I am maxed out on Yes bets. I could trade out now at a nice profit, but there is plenty more to come.isam said:
I've never given the matter of Scottish Independence any thought and so don't have a view, but don't you think there is a big "I want it to happen so much that I want to convince everyone its going to"? about the pro Indys?Stuart_Dickson said:No price lengthening across the board tonight. Latest bookies to adjust: Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power.
Best prices - Scottish independence referendum 18 September 2014
Yes 5/1 (BetVictor)
No 1/5 (Betfair)
5/1 still implies an 83% chance of failure, yet reading this site it seems like its almost a certainty
If I had any spare capital left I would invest it, but I'm afraid that barring another monster pay rise (I got 5.7% last year) I can't foresee me having much spare cash for the foreseeable.
Incidentally, I do not think that Yes is going to win. As I've said all along, I haven't got a clue who is going to win, but the current prices are just silly billy territory.
I'm off to the pub now in my new tartan shirt! Doing my bit!
Happy St Andrew's Day when midnight strikes. 0 -
Completely O/T but the key for the next election.
I am a Conservative or Lib Dem who is happy with the coalition (28% of the voting population).
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).0 -
No huge evidence of Tories in Cardiff Central voting to save a LD seat in 2011.AlbionTilIDie said:
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).
0 -
Not yet.....Neil said:
No huge evidence of Tories in Cardiff Central voting to save a LD incumbent in 2011.AlbionTilIDie said:
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).0 -
Agreed.NickPalmer said:FPT
For those who don't get Populus's weekly survey on what people remember about the news, this week nobody remembers anything, more or less. 11% manage to recall the typhoon, 9% recall the alleged slaves, 8% think they've seen something about immigration, and everything else is lower. Scotland, Watkins, Nigella, Flowers, Iran, energy prices and Plebgate are all also-rans. The survey was done over the last two days, so really quite striking that people have barely noticed the Scottish debate.
When English people (and I mean normal English people, not the politics geeks who inhabit PB) do eventually take notice of the IndyRef I just wonder if that fact in itself might actually influence the final result?
I'm thinking here of stunning TV clips like this:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/welcome-to-the-debate/
Now, that was a one-off boon for the Yes campaign, but when England genuinely wakes up clips like that might become daily events. That is something totally outwith Darling's control.0 -
That's a depressing thought, either living in Birmingham or CardiffAlbionTilIDie said:Completely O/T but the key for the next election.
I am a Conservative or Lib Dem who is happy with the coalition (28% of the voting population).
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).0 -
Cardiff is a great night out, I've had a few myself.Neil said:@TSE
I was in Cardiff on Wed, best night out I'd had in years, completely mental.
I just find some Welsh rugby fans a bit annoying and arrogant.
And yes I'm aware of the irony of an England rugby fan, calling other fans annoying and arrogant, but there's only so many times you can hear the suggestion from Welsh fans where I can shove the sweet chariot.0 -
Shhhhh. Birmingham is our (Brummies) little secret. We all live in houses which would cost millions in that there London for a pittance and work producing cars which are exported throughout the world. We don't want our secret to get out. And Cardiff Central is equally lovely now.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's a depressing thought, either living in Birmingham or CardiffAlbionTilIDie said:Completely O/T but the key for the next election.
I am a Conservative or Lib Dem who is happy with the coalition (28% of the voting population).
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).0 -
Normal English people take as much notice of Scottish politics as they do of Scottish football. That is none. They'd barely notice Scottish independence.Stuart_Dickson said:
Agreed.NickPalmer said:FPT
For those who don't get Populus's weekly survey on what people remember about the news, this week nobody remembers anything, more or less. 11% manage to recall the typhoon, 9% recall the alleged slaves, 8% think they've seen something about immigration, and everything else is lower. Scotland, Watkins, Nigella, Flowers, Iran, energy prices and Plebgate are all also-rans. The survey was done over the last two days, so really quite striking that people have barely noticed the Scottish debate.
When English people (and I mean normal English people, not the politics geeks who inhabit PB) do eventually take notice of the IndyRef I just wonder if that fact in itself might actually influence the final result?
I'm thinking here of stunning TV clips like this:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/welcome-to-the-debate/
Now, that was a one-off boon for the Yes campaign, but when England genuinely wakes up clips like that might become daily events. That is something totally outwith Darling's control.
0 -
I'm quite looking forward to ceasing to have any national connection with people who think 'outwith' is a valid word.
Here's hoping.0 -
I think there's some new polling or polling analysis in The Times, looks like there are 460,000 English people living in Scotland eligible to vote in next year's indyref and they are less likely to vote Yes than other voters.0
-
Chaucer seems to have been the only person to have ever used the opposite - "inwith"maaarsh said:I'm quite looking forward to ceasing to have any national connection with people who think 'outwith' is a valid word.
Here's hoping.
This purse hath she inwith her bosom hid.
Outwith just sounds pretentious with implied pseudo-legal connotations.
0 -
A convenient 5th columnist enemies-with-the-gates excuse to roll out if No wins narrowly.TheScreamingEagles said:I think there's some new polling or polling analysis in The Times, looks like there are 460,000 English people living in Scotland eligible to vote in next year's indyref and they are less likely to vote Yes than other voters.
0 -
Mike's discussed it from time to time. There doesn't seem much evidence that Tories are willing to vote LibDem tactically in England (IIRC they do tend to put Lab over SNP in multi-preference ballots in Scotland). It might change, but with more and more differentiation pre-programmed, I'd guess not.AlbionTilIDie said:Completely O/T but the key for the next election.
I am a Conservative or Lib Dem who is happy with the coalition (28% of the voting population).
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).
0 -
Fife Council leader Alex Rowley selected as Labour candidate for Cowdenbeath by-election. He stood in Dunfermline in 2011.0
-
The enemy inwith.GeoffM said:
A convenient 5th columnist enemies-with-the-gates excuse to roll out if No wins narrowly.TheScreamingEagles said:I think there's some new polling or polling analysis in The Times, looks like there are 460,000 English people living in Scotland eligible to vote in next year's indyref and they are less likely to vote Yes than other voters.
0 -
"And it appears that the fat red angry fop we see in public is duplicated in private"tim said:And it appears that the fat red angry fop we see in public is duplicated in private
"The likeable and reassuring personality of the Prime Minister’s early years is in danger of disappearing
David Cameron had a meeting last Friday with a delegation of 25 mostly centrist Tory MPs of a generally progressive bent (“Tory backbenchers warn Cameron he risks split”, – 26 Nov 26). They wanted to talk about green “crap” — a word he insists he never used. The meeting did not, I hear, reassure, and I understate. He seemed tetchy and riled. "
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3936377.ece
Tim, I think you've confused the words 'we' and 'I'. Have you ever had a conversation with an actual person where they've called David Cameron 'a red angry fop'? Maybe the same people who talk about 'Grant Spiv' and 'Messiah Gove'.0 -
Were those people locked in a cellar for the last year?Roger said:@Sean
":Contribute! Suggest something positive that the No campaign could do."
Point out that Alex new best friend is Donald Trump........well not so new but it certainly seemed to fire up a lot of people I was speaking to
'In May, Mr. Trump called Mr. Salmond "Mad Alex" in a scathing column in a U.K. newspaper. He has labeled Mr. Salmond's green-energy push an "obsession" and the wind farm a potential "blight" on Scotland's blustery coastline.
He has also accused Mr. Salmond of assuring him at the time of his initial £750 million ($1.19 billion) investment that no windmills would be built within eyesight of the planned development. Mr. Trump is sole owner and developer of the resort.
" Alex Salmond has a death wish for Scotland, where he wants to put these horrendous industrial wind turbines all over the place," Mr. Trump said in a telephone interview last week.'
0 -
Who could forget the housing slump of 1997-2007, when Brown built a whole economy on a massive debt bubble? When you only had to spell your name right to get another further advance? Were you moaning then?tim said:Given that Carney allowed the biggest housing affordability problem in the world to inflate on his watch in Canada this should send a chill down the Osborne fans spines.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/29/mark-carney-bank-of-england-home-buyer-warning
""I fully recognise that Canada is the second-biggest country in the world. It's easy to build housing as it's easy to find places [to build]. But it does give you a sense of the issues around the constraints on supply and the movements in prices you see as well. They all reinforce that sense that there is a supply issue. And there's nothing the Bank of England can do to change that.""
Osborne has done a great job in turning Labour's shit around without creating mass unemployment, even the hapless Blanchflower has finally admitted what the rest of us knew, that he was completely wrong.
0 -
ExcellentMonikerDiCanio said:
The enemy inwith.GeoffM said:
A convenient 5th columnist enemies-with-the-gates excuse to roll out if No wins narrowly.TheScreamingEagles said:I think there's some new polling or polling analysis in The Times, looks like there are 460,000 English people living in Scotland eligible to vote in next year's indyref and they are less likely to vote Yes than other voters.
0 -
Why would you? Tactical voting aims to ensure that the greater enemy is kept out. How can you vote tactically for the LibDems when they will simply prostitute themselves to the highest bidder after a GE anyway?NickPalmer said:There doesn't seem much evidence that Tories are willing to vote LibDem tactically in England
Electing a LD is flipping a coin and seeing if it randomly lands Blue or Red side up after the election is over.
0 -
I was thinking the same thing, Annabel Giles is amusing and may make it to the endtim said:David Emmanuel at 33/1 on the Aussie shite looks like a decent bet to me.
0 -
Labour reselections:
Roberta Blackman-Woods
Kevin Brennan
Willie Bain0 -
@Uniondivvie
" Alex Salmond has a death wish for Scotland, where he wants to put these horrendous industrial wind turbines all over the place," Mr. Trump said in a telephone interview last week.'
I heard about the lovers tiff. Even the Saatchis said some rude things about each other. The truth of the tiff is that AS is putting wind farms in eye shot of his precious golf course. An ecological disaster
http://www.foe.co.uk/green-blog/esther-woolfson-winter-journal
0 -
Just cos you hate Scotland doesn't mean that everyone else does. I think that a lot of English people are very interested in the future of the UK and in the future of England. And the outcome of the IndyRef affects both.MonikerDiCanio said:
Normal English people take as much notice of Scottish politics as they do of Scottish football. That is none. They'd barely notice Scottish independence.Stuart_Dickson said:
Agreed.NickPalmer said:FPT
For those who don't get Populus's weekly survey on what people remember about the news, this week nobody remembers anything, more or less. 11% manage to recall the typhoon, 9% recall the alleged slaves, 8% think they've seen something about immigration, and everything else is lower. Scotland, Watkins, Nigella, Flowers, Iran, energy prices and Plebgate are all also-rans. The survey was done over the last two days, so really quite striking that people have barely noticed the Scottish debate.
When English people (and I mean normal English people, not the politics geeks who inhabit PB) do eventually take notice of the IndyRef I just wonder if that fact in itself might actually influence the final result?
I'm thinking here of stunning TV clips like this:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/welcome-to-the-debate/
Now, that was a one-off boon for the Yes campaign, but when England genuinely wakes up clips like that might become daily events. That is something totally outwith Darling's control.0 -
What's wrong with Birmingham?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's a depressing thought, either living in Birmingham or CardiffAlbionTilIDie said:Completely O/T but the key for the next election.
I am a Conservative or Lib Dem who is happy with the coalition (28% of the voting population).
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).0 -
Winner without Joey Essex at 16/1 looks reasonabletim said:David Emmanuel at 33/1 on the Aussie shite looks like a decent bet to me.
0 -
Cameron set the agenda with the economy, welfare, education, policing, europe, immigration to name a few. rED only speaks for the cry-babies who want to complain all the time. Of course, M.Hollande speaks for him.tim said:Telegraph editorial.
"The unfortunate impression is of a Government, and a Prime Minister, that follows the news cycle rather than sets the agenda."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/10483813/David-Cameron-must-set-the-agenda-not-follow-it.html
Seems a bit cruel to me, Cameron set the agenda with his tiny windmill up, then set it with his tiny windmill down, then set it with the windmill halfway up and then set it with the D400 Stealthgen back in it's box in the garage.
At each point Cameron was showing leadership.
0 -
The accents alone.AndyJS said:
What's wrong with Birmingham?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's a depressing thought, either living in Birmingham or CardiffAlbionTilIDie said:Completely O/T but the key for the next election.
I am a Conservative or Lib Dem who is happy with the coalition (28% of the voting population).
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).
New Street Station.0 -
I am a 2010 LD voter in a Tory seat; not delighted by the coalition but recognise the difficult hand Clegg was dealt. I'll probably vote the same way, although given it's a strongly Tory seat I might flirt with Green. If it was competitive my main driver would clearly be vote to stop the Tory, and that's still an enormous motivator for many. As an environmental professional, the woeful performance of Paterson (vis a vis Spelman, who was showing signs of getting it) at Defra just reinforces my views.AlbionTilIDie said:Completely O/T but the key for the next election.
I am a Conservative or Lib Dem who is happy with the coalition (28% of the voting population).
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).0 -
@Nige
Who could forget the housing slump of 1997-2007, when Brown built a whole economy on a massive debt bubble? When you only had to spell your name right to get another further advance? Were you moaning then?
Osborne has done a great job in turning Labour's shit around without creating mass unemployment, even the hapless Blanchflower has finally admitted what the rest of us knew, that he was completely wrong.
I demand you show where Danny Blanchflower has ever admitted he is wrong. Such a thing is not possible!0 -
@Monksfield
" As an environmental professional, the woeful performance of Paterson"
That was the point I made last week. Even though the numbers might be small Cameron's green u-turn is an absolute deal breaker. Those voters have gone.0 -
What's wrong with Birmingham?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's a depressing thought, either living in Birmingham or CardiffAlbionTilIDie said:Completely O/T but the key for the next election.
I am a Conservative or Lib Dem who is happy with the coalition (28% of the voting population).
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).
The accents alone.
New Street Station.
I'll grant you New St Station; despite spending millions it seems to be getting worse, and from a low starting point. But otherwise Birmingham has improved immeasurably since I was a student there in the mid 80's. In my view now Britain's most under-rated city.
0 -
More to the point, if Spain has a veto on Scotland joining the EU, then surely rUK must also have a veto?
I do note expect negotiations to get that hostile, but still...Stuart_Dickson said:
Great. Hopi Sen is influential in Labour circles. We look forward to lots of Project Fear border control stories. It is almost as though the Yes side is getting to write the No side's scripts for them.TheScreamingEagles said:The very sensible and occasional PB contributor Hopi Sen has tweeted this
Hopi Sen @hopisen 1m
Q: if Indy Scotland is, even temporarily, outside EU, won't rUK have to have some sort of border control? Eg see this
http://ec.europa.eu/immigration/tab3.do?subSec=16&language=7$en0 -
I have been visiting Brum over the last twenty five years. No question that it is a much nicer city than it was. It tears down its centre and rebuilds it every couple of decades, but got it right this time.
Agree New St station is horible, though conveniently central, unlike the HS2 station.
The accents alone.Monksfield said:
What's wrong with Birmingham?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's a depressing thought, either living in Birmingham or CardiffAlbionTilIDie said:Completely O/T but the key for the next election.
I am a Conservative or Lib Dem who is happy with the coalition (28% of the voting population).
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).
New Street Station.
I'll grant you New St Station; despite spending millions it seems to be getting worse, and from a low starting point. But otherwise Birmingham has improved immeasurably since I was a student there in the mid 80's. In my view now Britain's most under-rated city.
0 -
According to RTs a helicopter's crashed into a bar in Glasgow.0
-
You weren't meant to be intimidated tim. Just pointing out that you're hardly in touch with reality. After all your inane comments on 'badgergate', 'man cries at funeral' and, how could anyone forget, you're idiotic, faux insider, posturing on HS2 (sure you know far more about the rail industry than me), does suggest you don't really have your finger on the pulse! I am always genuinely astounded by your almost total lack of self awareness. The ability to sneer at others when you consistently get things wrong Remarkable!tim said:
I'm intimidated by the judgement of another PB Scottish Tory, given their track record.Max_Edinburgh said:
"And it appears that the fat red angry fop we see in public is duplicated in private"tim said:And it appears that the fat red angry fop we see in public is duplicated in private
"The likeable and reassuring personality of the Prime Minister’s early years is in danger of disappearing
David Cameron had a meeting last Friday with a delegation of 25 mostly centrist Tory MPs of a generally progressive bent (“Tory backbenchers warn Cameron he risks split”, – 26 Nov 26). They wanted to talk about green “crap” — a word he insists he never used. The meeting did not, I hear, reassure, and I understate. He seemed tetchy and riled. "
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3936377.ece
Tim, I think you've confused the words 'we' and 'I'. Have you ever had a conversation with an actual person where they've called David Cameron 'a red angry fop'? Maybe the same people who talk about 'Grant Spiv' and 'Messiah Gove'.
I concede, you're right, Cameron Connects0 -
Jim MurphyCarola said:According to RTs a helicopter's crashed into a bar in Glasgow.
@jimmurphymp
Terrible here in Glasgow Helicopter crashed into roof of pub0 -
They're saying it's a police helicopter.TheScreamingEagles said:
Jim MurphyCarola said:According to RTs a helicopter's crashed into a bar in Glasgow.
@jimmurphymp
Terrible here in Glasgow Helicopter crashed into roof of pub0 -
Coventry is what London might have been like if the Ringways had been built.0
-
The CluthaCarola said:According to RTs a helicopter's crashed into a bar in Glasgow.
http://tinyurl.com/p6xajtr
0 -
Now breaking news on TV.Theuniondivvie said:
The CluthaCarola said:According to RTs a helicopter's crashed into a bar in Glasgow.
http://tinyurl.com/p6xajtr0 -
Terrible news. Can only pray for a miracle that no one is badly hurt.Carola said:
Now breaking news on TV.Theuniondivvie said:
The CluthaCarola said:According to RTs a helicopter's crashed into a bar in Glasgow.
http://tinyurl.com/p6xajtr0 -
The Clutha Vaults will have been packed, and it's odds on some people I know will have been in there. I hope no one is badly injured.0
