I am a Conservative or Lib Dem who is happy with the coalition (28% of the voting population).
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015? (2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).
I am a 2010 LD voter in a Tory seat; not delighted by the coalition but recognise the difficult hand Clegg was dealt. I'll probably vote the same way, although given it's a strongly Tory seat I might flirt with Green. If it was competitive my main driver would clearly be vote to stop the Tory, and that's still an enormous motivator for many. As an environmental professional, the woeful performance of Paterson (vis a vis Spelman, who was showing signs of getting it) at Defra just reinforces my views.
In a similar position, but the Green's position on medical experimentation on animals is something I could never support. The use of animals in medicine development has probably saved my life and certainly enriched it.
TSE Birmingham has improved, particularly with the Norman Foster designed Selfridges. Cardiff is also not bad, particularly around the Bay with the Millennium Centre and Assembly and the Castle and Bute Park (indeed I am going to the Millennium Stadium to watch Wales v Australia tomorrow). Also, had an enjoyable evening tonight watching Romeo and Juliet at Hereford Cathedral.
Sad to hear of the news coming out of Glasgow, hopefully casualties will not be too high
The use of animals in medicine development has probably saved my life and certainly enriched it.
Do you have a companion animal of any kind? If so would you surrender it for animal experimentation?
I have a German Shepherd named Heidi whom I love and adore, and could not imagine letting her be experimented on.
Yet as you say animal experimentation has definitely benefitted mankind.
This is up there with the WWI conscientious objectors tribunal question "what would you do if you saw a German raping your sister?"
I was diagnosed with asthma at 4 or 5. My childhood and early teenage years were miserable because of limitations on exercise. However as new drugs came along in the late 50's life improved and from then on I've led a normal life, exercising normally etc. Now I'm 75 and I had, and recovered from a bout of cancer.
In a similar position, but the Green's position on medical experimentation on animals is something I could never support. The use of animals in medicine development has probably saved my life and certainly enriched it.
It's possible to argue that there should be more Parliamentary representation of the critics, though. The recent Professor Bateson study found that researchers doing 9% of experiments on primates were unable to suggest any way that the experiments might at some point be useful to humans. There's too much idly speculative research getting through the system at the moment before one gets down to the difficult cases, and the fact that we have one of the most secretive systems in Europe (the Home Office would commit a criminal offence if it published details of experiments under FOIA, even with all names and location informaion removed) is surely difficult to defend?
The Birmingham accent may have been close to the way Shakespeare spoke.
Interesting fact: in 1960 the West Midlands was the most prosperous part of the UK. Politicians were actually concerned by how to contain its booming economy.
The horrible accents that most people associate with Birmingham are actually mostly from the Black Country. The Brum accent itself is pretty mild by comparison.
Pulpstar, it is looking increasingly like Christie v Hillary is the likely 2016 field, which would at least give Hillary a real run for her money, though I think she would scrape home
Pulpstar, it is looking increasingly like Christie v Hillary is the likely 2016 field, which would at least give Hillary a real run for her money, though I think she would scrape home
I too was diagnosed with asthma as a baby. As a child I had breathing lessons, later learned bio-feedback, stress management techniques etc. I could not go out in cold weather as my throat would close up. Even today I carry two inhalers with me at all times, even at the gym.
I am also allergic to household dust- and pet dander. When my wife vacuums I have to be out of the house (even with a Dyson) or I get tight chested. When I got my first German Shepherd (Heidi is #3) I asked my doctor if it was a good idea.. He said that the relaxation and exercise I got from playng with and walking my dog would be much more beneficial - Just pop an anti-hystamine tablet every day.
I am 13 years your junior, and fortunately have not had to face the big C- but am glad you have survived!
One of the best things for me was getting away from the UK climate, firstly when my parents retired to the Canary Islands, then emigrating to North America.
TimB Sounds like you did the sensible thing in moving, but the US can be even colder than here in the Midwest and North East in Winter and Seattle can get very wet, the south west and south and Florida are better bets for a warmer climate
This is up there with the WWI conscientious objectors tribunal question "what would you do if you saw a German raping your sister?"
I was diagnosed with asthma at 4 or 5. My childhood and early teenage years were miserable because of limitations on exercise. However as new drugs came along in the late 50's life improved and from then on I've led a normal life, exercising normally etc. Now I'm 75 and I had, and recovered from a bout of cancer.
I'll raise your German Shepherd!
It's interesting just how far we're prepared to raise these things.
Dogs are cute and fluffy and familiar, so we're pretty squeamish. Pigs are also animals of considerable intelligence, or so I am told, but experimenting on them generates less disgust. Perhaps their downfall is that they're too tasty - but in countries with different cultural norms, dogs are tasty too, and presumably experimenting on them rather less troublesome.
Then there's the really prickly stuff. Primates, like Nick P says. Is it their intelligence that troubles us, or the fact they are "cousins"? And if the latter, is it that we feel genuine kinship in evolutionary and genetic terms, or simply that their anthropomorphism allows us to project ourselves onto them more easily? What about experimenting on seriously cognitively impaired children, whose functional intelligence may be below that of an adult primate? How about a normally developed embryo, or fetus, or newborn? Or a truly damnable criminal?
For what it's worth, I actually find people's reactions to such questions more interesting than the substance of the questions themselves!
Pulpstar, it is looking increasingly like Christie v Hillary is the likely 2016 field, which would at least give Hillary a real run for her money, though I think she would scrape home
The elephant in the room is Obamacare. In the 2010 midterms the Democrats suffered the biggest midterm loss in House seats in 85 years, because Obamacare was so unpopular - even though it had not yet passed.
Obama endlessly repeated "If you like your health care plan, you can keep it. Period." "If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor." and kept saying that for a family of 4, premiums would decrease $2500 a year. These were all untrue, and he knew it at the time.
He lied repeatedly, and we know it, because the Federal Register in February 2010 stated that the administration expected up to 67% of individual plans to be cancelled due to Obamacare rules.
It gets worse - the Federal Register of June 17, 2010, page 34552, states
plans will relinquish the department's mid-range estimate is that 66% of small employer plans and 45% of large employer their grandfather status by the end of 2013
That was delayed for a year on Friday, but now everyone is worried about their health insurance, and feel they have been lied to. They know that over 90 million more policy cancellations are coming down the road, and that Obamacare is designed to do this.
Obama's approval is at its lowest ever at 37%, 60% think he knowingly lied, and only 40% think he is a competent manager.
It was originally stated that anyone under 400% of the federal poverty level would get a subsidy, but that is turning out not to be true either.
Hillary tried to reform health care when Bill was Potus. This will be hung around her neck too.
This week for the first time in a poll a generic Republican beats a generic democrat in the election.2 Months ago the democratic lead was 10.
Obamacare is toxic for Democrats and becoming more so all the time. The election is almost a year away, but the news is only going to get worse. It remains to be seen what effect this will have on the midterms.
It was anounced the other day that hosting of heathcare.gov is being moved from Verizon to HP. Not the best time to do it.
TimB Sounds like you did the sensible thing in moving, but the US can be even colder than here in the Midwest and North East in Winter and Seattle can get very wet, the south west and south and Florida are better bets for a warmer climate
We started out in Toronto, a lovely city but viewed by most Canadians as positively Floridian in its comparative climate. It got so cold in winter that regardless of how much anti-freeze you put in your cooling system, if the car was left outside overnight in winter, the coolant would freeze and your gasoline / diesel would be sludge, unless you had a block heater on your car, which was standard equipment.
It was so cold it didn't feel cold. More than once I took the skin off my fingertips trying to open a car door without wearing gloves.
We made our way to the Peach State, and as the bumper sticker says "I'm not from the South, but got here as quickly as I could."
Climate, cheap cost of living, and SEC football - sounds good to me.
The horrible accents that most people associate with Birmingham are actually mostly from the Black Country. The Brum accent itself is pretty mild by comparison.
Peter from Putney is liable to come out with his "Kipper tie" joke, as soon as Brummie accents get a mention on this forum. So in an attempt to both preempt and avert that eventuality I would like to formally record on PB the Brummie definition of "Kipper Tie".
TimB But a generic Dem also lost to a generic Republican in 2012 and Obamacare had already been passed by election day.
TimB Yes Georgia certainly has its attractions
I know the generic poll stuff doesn't mean much but it doesn't help, being such a big swing in a short time.
My bad - yes, the bill was passed in March 2010. My apologies. Put it down to a senior moment! No idea what I was thinking there. I should have said that in 2010 the bill had not yet been implemented and still the Dems suffered the biggest midterm losses in over 80 years.
There's more bad Obamacare news - remember when the bill was passed the CBO forecast a 10 year cost of just under $1 trillion? That has now doubled.
Obamacare was meant to herald universal health care for all - but apparently not. When the bill was passed there were approximately 30 million without health insurance. The Congressional Budget Office now estimates that in 2020 that number will be 40 million.
So according to the CBO the net result of spending $2 trillion on health care results in 10 million fewer people having insurance.
TimB I doubt if Obamacare will have much influence on 2016 beyond that it had in 2012, if you supported it in the first place teething problems are unlikely to sway you and if you opposed it from the start they would simply reinforce your view. In any case, Obama will not be on the ballot and Hillary would, if necessary, simply say she would have implemented it better and maybe produce some amendments
"Independent GAIN from SNP on the fourth count on a swing of 3% from Ind to SNP"
Could someone please explain to me the mathematics of the above ? If it is a GAIN then relatively the Independent must have done better than the SNP. Unless it was a HOLD.
They have multi-member wards in Scotland. In the main election, the SNP got 1 seat and the Independents got 2. It was the SNP seat which became vacant. In the by-election, the Independent vote was still the biggest, despite going down a bit.
TimB I doubt if Obamacare will have much influence on 2016 beyond that it had in 2012, if you supported it in the first place teething problems are unlikely to sway you and if you opposed it from the start they would simply reinforce your view. In any case, Obama will not be on the ballot and Hillary would, if necessary, simply say she would have implemented it better and maybe produce some amendments
Teething probems - the website is not the issue - at some point it will be working to an acceptable level. It was revealed this week that the payment and subsidy parts of the site have yet to be written, so it will take a while. The website is merely a glitch.
The problem is the mix of people signing up. Obamacare relies on young and healthy people signing up in droves and paying to subsidize the premiums of the old and sick. The young have made the decision that they don't want to be forced to buy a product they neither want nor need. They'd rather pay the $95 fine. Those persevering to sign up - according to insurance company info - are older and less healthy.
Another problem is the sheer number of people being steered into 'free' medicare and medicaid, for which they pay nothing. It appears - and this is very early days yet - that the numbers signing up for Medicare / Medicaid outnumber those signing up for Obamacare by 2, 3 and 4 to 1, depending on the state and federal exchanges.
Add to that the anouncement that insurance companies can continue to offer policies for another year that don't meet Obamacare standards, and the 1 year delay in small business being subject to Obamacare and you have an Obamacare risk pool that doesn't reflect the cost model of the insurance companies, and a non-Obamacare risk pool the companies weren't expecting.
The expected 90 million plus cancellations will begin in October next year.
It is entirely possible that Obamacare will be 'fixed' by that point, but unless something fundamental about the risk pool occurs fairly soon, this will collapse under its own weight.
In 2016 every congressman and 1/3 of the Senate will be up for election.
More to the point in 2012 every Congressman is up for reelection and of the 34 Senate seats up for election 21 are Democrats, many in red states.
TimB But a generic Dem also lost to a generic Republican in 2012 and Obamacare had already been passed by election day.
TimB Yes Georgia certainly has its attractions
I know the generic poll stuff doesn't mean much but it doesn't help, being such a big swing in a short time.
My bad - yes, the bill was passed in March 2010. My apologies. Put it down to a senior moment! No idea what I was thinking there. I should have said that in 2010 the bill had not yet been implemented and still the Dems suffered the biggest midterm losses in over 80 years.
There's more bad Obamacare news - remember when the bill was passed the CBO forecast a 10 year cost of just under $1 trillion? That has now doubled.
Obamacare was meant to herald universal health care for all - but apparently not. When the bill was passed there were approximately 30 million without health insurance. The Congressional Budget Office now estimates that in 2020 that number will be 40 million.
So according to the CBO the net result of spending $2 trillion on health care results in 10 million fewer people having insurance.
Appreciate your posting on this stuff - any chances you could link to your sources when you do?
Even if I am wrong, which I am not, they should be fear-mongering.
The time for fear mongering is just before polling day when there isnt scope for the ridiculousness of the idea to be exposed. This kind of stuff is ok for the Daily Express for now but it wouldnt make sense for Darling and co to be spouting it themselves.
I don't think it's obviously ridiculous. I mean, it's ridiculous if you know a bit about it and think about it for a few seconds, but that will only represent a tiny minority of voters. Referendums are competitions for who can tell the most outrageous lies. If one side is prepared to do what it takes and the other side is too scared of looking silly they're going to concede to the audacious by default.
TimB But a generic Dem also lost to a generic Republican in 2012 and Obamacare had already been passed by election day.
TimB Yes Georgia certainly has its attractions
I know the generic poll stuff doesn't mean much but it doesn't help, being such a big swing in a short time.
My bad - yes, the bill was passed in March 2010. My apologies. Put it down to a senior moment! No idea what I was thinking there. I should have said that in 2010 the bill had not yet been implemented and still the Dems suffered the biggest midterm losses in over 80 years.
There's more bad Obamacare news - remember when the bill was passed the CBO forecast a 10 year cost of just under $1 trillion? That has now doubled.
Obamacare was meant to herald universal health care for all - but apparently not. When the bill was passed there were approximately 30 million without health insurance. The Congressional Budget Office now estimates that in 2020 that number will be 40 million.
So according to the CBO the net result of spending $2 trillion on health care results in 10 million fewer people having insurance.
Appreciate your posting on this stuff - any chances you could link to your sources when you do?
The Congressional Budget Office isn't enough? It's all googlable - if that's even a word :-)
TimB But a generic Dem also lost to a generic Republican in 2012 and Obamacare had already been passed by election day.
TimB Yes Georgia certainly has its attractions
I know the generic poll stuff doesn't mean much but it doesn't help, being such a big swing in a short time.
My bad - yes, the bill was passed in March 2010. My apologies. Put it down to a senior moment! No idea what I was thinking there. I should have said that in 2010 the bill had not yet been implemented and still the Dems suffered the biggest midterm losses in over 80 years.
There's more bad Obamacare news - remember when the bill was passed the CBO forecast a 10 year cost of just under $1 trillion? That has now doubled.
Obamacare was meant to herald universal health care for all - but apparently not. When the bill was passed there were approximately 30 million without health insurance. The Congressional Budget Office now estimates that in 2020 that number will be 40 million.
So according to the CBO the net result of spending $2 trillion on health care results in 10 million fewer people having insurance.
Appreciate your posting on this stuff - any chances you could link to your sources when you do?
The Congressional Budget Office isn't enough? It's all googlable - if that's even a word :-)
The CBO produces a lot of documents, so a link to the specific one you're talking about is much better. Alternatively, if you didn't read their report themselves and got information from a news source, a link to that would be fine too.
I read so much of this stuff, and as you know I follow the healthcare act pretty closely.
I'm ashamed to admit that I cannot give you a pure CBO link for this at this point. I can't find it in my notes.
One of the problems with a thing like Obamacare is that both Republicans and Democrats attempt to spin it in their favor, including CBO figures. This makes googling a challenge, as there is more noise than light.
The gist of their initial calculations was that the initial estimate was based on 10 years of revenue - from 2010 - but only 6 years of expenditure, to reflect that most provisions of Obamacare didn't come into effect until 2014. The CBO was not happy about that, and subsequently revised once real numbers were available.
I read so much of this stuff, and as you know I follow the healthcare act pretty closely.
I'm ashamed to admit that I cannot give you a pure CBO link for this at this point. I can't find it in my notes.
One of the problems with a thing like Obamacare is that both Republicans and Democrats attempt to spin it in their favor, including CBO figures. This makes googling a challenge, as there is more noise than light.
The gist of their initial calculations was that the initial estimate was based on 10 years of revenue - from 2010 - but only 6 years of expenditure, to reflect that most provisions of Obamacare didn't come into effect until 2014. The CBO was not happy about that, and subsequently revised once real numbers were available.
At this time of night that's the best I can do.
Thanks, that's why I was hoping for links - as you say everybody spins it. Things to check for here is whether the "doubled" number is for the same period as the original number, and what the future predicted uninsured number would be like _without_ Obamacare.
I read so much of this stuff, and as you know I follow the healthcare act pretty closely.
I'm ashamed to admit that I cannot give you a pure CBO link for this at this point. I can't find it in my notes.
One of the problems with a thing like Obamacare is that both Republicans and Democrats attempt to spin it in their favor, including CBO figures. This makes googling a challenge, as there is more noise than light.
The gist of their initial calculations was that the initial estimate was based on 10 years of revenue - from 2010 - but only 6 years of expenditure, to reflect that most provisions of Obamacare didn't come into effect until 2014. The CBO was not happy about that, and subsequently revised once real numbers were available.
At this time of night that's the best I can do.
Thanks, that's why I was hoping for links - as you say everybody spins it. Things to check for here is whether the "doubled" number is for the same period as the original number, and what the future predicted uninsured number would be like _without_ Obamacare.
The CBO merely costs government policy going forward - I'm not aware of any calculations on their part as to what would have happened without Obamacare.
There is of course much research on that precise subject, but I don't see much of it as objective.
I'm almost done with my first experience of Obamacare and will post on that when it's complete.
Tim B But the GOP already hold the House anyway, and taking the Senate after 6 years of an opposing incumbent in the White House is par for the course!
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-25163045
If you are an apostrophe freak.........consider self immolation please.
(In fact, anyone who thinks grammar is important when shit happens)
But it does scream some joke headlines -
"Police come down on Glasgow drinkers like a ton of bricks"
The use of animals in medicine development has probably saved my life and certainly enriched it.
Do you have a companion animal of any kind? If so would you surrender it for animal experimentation?
I have a German Shepherd named Heidi whom I love and adore, and could not imagine letting her be experimented on.
Yet as you say animal experimentation has definitely benefitted mankind.
Arbed with potential 'double upsides' for a lay of £2 on Winner market (Betfair) at 28-1
Sad to hear of the news coming out of Glasgow, hopefully casualties will not be too high
I was diagnosed with asthma at 4 or 5. My childhood and early teenage years were miserable because of limitations on exercise. However as new drugs came along in the late 50's life improved and from then on I've led a normal life, exercising normally etc. Now I'm 75 and I had, and recovered from a bout of cancer.
I'll raise your German Shepherd!
Interesting fact: in 1960 the West Midlands was the most prosperous part of the UK. Politicians were actually concerned by how to contain its booming economy.
•Chris Christie 26% (20%)
•Ted Cruz 16%
•Rand Paul 14% (17%)
•Jeb Bush 10% (10%)
•Rick Santorum 8% (10%)
•Marco Rubio 6% (17%)
•Paul Ryan 5% (6%)
•Scott Walker 3%
•Bobby Jindal 3% (4%)
•Someone else/Not sure 9% (6%)
•Chris Christie 40%
•Rand Paul 10%
•Marco Rubio 10%
•Jeb Bush 8%
•Paul Ryan 5%
•Rick Perry 3%
•Ted Cruz 3%
•Scott Walker 3%
•Susana Martinez 2%
•Rick Santorum 2%
•Undecided 15%
•Chris Christie 24% (17%)
•Rand Paul 13% (13%)
•Paul Ryan 11% (16%)
•Ted Cruz 10% (7%)
•Marco Rubio 9% (9%)
•Rick Perry 7% (6%)
•Jeb Bush 6% (10%)
•Rick Santorum 6% (5%)
•Someone else (vol.) 6% (6%)
•None/No one (vol.) 2% (4%)
•No opinion 6% (6%)
Democratic
•Hillary Clinton 63% (65%)
•Joe Biden 12% (10%)
•Elizabeth Warren 7% (7%)
•Andrew Cuomo 5% (6%)
•Martin O’Malley 2% (2%)
•Someone else (vol.) 6% (4%)
•None/No one (vol.) 3% (5%)
•No opinion 3% (2%)
If Hillary Clinton does not run:
•Joe Biden 43%
•Elizabeth Warren 17%
•Andrew Cuomo 15%
•Martin O’Malley 6%
•Someone else (vol.) 8%
•None/No one (vol.) 7%
•No opinion 4%
But "Shake-speare" (the man who actually wrote the plays) was from much further north...
I too was diagnosed with asthma as a baby. As a child I had breathing lessons, later learned bio-feedback, stress management techniques etc. I could not go out in cold weather as my throat would close up. Even today I carry two inhalers with me at all times, even at the gym.
I am also allergic to household dust- and pet dander. When my wife vacuums I have to be out of the house (even with a Dyson) or I get tight chested. When I got my first German Shepherd (Heidi is #3) I asked my doctor if it was a good idea.. He said that the relaxation and exercise I got from playng with and walking my dog would be much more beneficial - Just pop an anti-hystamine tablet every day.
I am 13 years your junior, and fortunately have not had to face the big C- but am glad you have survived!
One of the best things for me was getting away from the UK climate, firstly when my parents retired to the Canary Islands, then emigrating to North America.
Dogs are cute and fluffy and familiar, so we're pretty squeamish. Pigs are also animals of considerable intelligence, or so I am told, but experimenting on them generates less disgust. Perhaps their downfall is that they're too tasty - but in countries with different cultural norms, dogs are tasty too, and presumably experimenting on them rather less troublesome.
Then there's the really prickly stuff. Primates, like Nick P says. Is it their intelligence that troubles us, or the fact they are "cousins"? And if the latter, is it that we feel genuine kinship in evolutionary and genetic terms, or simply that their anthropomorphism allows us to project ourselves onto them more easily? What about experimenting on seriously cognitively impaired children, whose functional intelligence may be below that of an adult primate? How about a normally developed embryo, or fetus, or newborn? Or a truly damnable criminal?
For what it's worth, I actually find people's reactions to such questions more interesting than the substance of the questions themselves!
Obama endlessly repeated "If you like your health care plan, you can keep it. Period." "If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor." and kept saying that for a family of 4, premiums would decrease $2500 a year. These were all untrue, and he knew it at the time.
He lied repeatedly, and we know it, because the Federal Register in February 2010 stated that
the administration expected up to 67% of individual plans to be cancelled due to Obamacare rules.
It gets worse - the Federal Register of June 17, 2010, page 34552, states
plans will relinquish the department's mid-range estimate is that 66% of small employer plans and 45% of large employer their grandfather status by the end of 2013
That was delayed for a year on Friday, but now everyone is worried about their health insurance, and feel they have been lied to. They know that over 90 million more policy cancellations are coming down the road, and that Obamacare is designed to do this.
Obama's approval is at its lowest ever at 37%, 60% think he knowingly lied, and only 40% think he is a competent manager.
It was originally stated that anyone under 400% of the federal poverty level would get a subsidy, but that is turning out not to be true either.
Hillary tried to reform health care when Bill was Potus. This will be hung around her neck too.
This week for the first time in a poll a generic Republican beats a generic democrat in the election.2 Months ago the democratic lead was 10.
Obamacare is toxic for Democrats and becoming more so all the time. The election is almost a year away, but the news is only going to get worse. It remains to be seen what effect this will have on the midterms.
It was anounced the other day that hosting of heathcare.gov is being moved from Verizon to HP. Not the best time to do it.
It was so cold it didn't feel cold. More than once I took the skin off my fingertips trying to open a car door without wearing gloves.
We made our way to the Peach State, and as the bumper sticker says "I'm not from the South, but got here as quickly as I could."
Climate, cheap cost of living, and SEC football - sounds good to me.
TimB Yes Georgia certainly has its attractions
Kipper Tie: An ot drink enjoyed with a poiklet.
My bad - yes, the bill was passed in March 2010. My apologies. Put it down to a senior moment! No idea what I was thinking there. I should have said that in 2010 the bill had not yet been implemented and still the Dems suffered the biggest midterm losses in over 80 years.
There's more bad Obamacare news - remember when the bill was passed the CBO forecast a 10 year cost of just under $1 trillion? That has now doubled.
Obamacare was meant to herald universal health care for all - but apparently not. When the bill was passed there were approximately 30 million without health insurance. The Congressional Budget Office now estimates that in 2020 that number will be 40 million.
So according to the CBO the net result of spending $2 trillion on health care results in 10 million fewer people having insurance.
The problem is the mix of people signing up. Obamacare relies on young and healthy people signing up in droves and paying to subsidize the premiums of the old and sick. The young have made the decision that they don't want to be forced to buy a product they neither want nor need. They'd rather pay the $95 fine. Those persevering to sign up - according to insurance company info - are older and less healthy.
Another problem is the sheer number of people being steered into 'free' medicare and medicaid, for which they pay nothing. It appears - and this is very early days yet - that the numbers signing up for Medicare / Medicaid outnumber those signing up for Obamacare by 2, 3 and 4 to 1, depending on the state and federal exchanges.
Add to that the anouncement that insurance companies can continue to offer policies for another year that don't meet Obamacare standards, and the 1 year delay in small business being subject to Obamacare and you have an Obamacare risk pool that doesn't reflect the cost model of the insurance companies, and a non-Obamacare risk pool the companies weren't expecting.
The expected 90 million plus cancellations will begin in October next year.
It is entirely possible that Obamacare will be 'fixed' by that point, but unless something fundamental about the risk pool occurs fairly soon, this will collapse under its own weight.
In 2016 every congressman and 1/3 of the Senate will be up for election.
More to the point in 2012 every Congressman is up for reelection and of the 34 Senate seats up for election 21 are Democrats, many in red states.
I read so much of this stuff, and as you know I follow the healthcare act pretty closely.
I'm ashamed to admit that I cannot give you a pure CBO link for this at this point. I can't find it in my notes.
One of the problems with a thing like Obamacare is that both Republicans and Democrats attempt to spin it in their favor, including CBO figures. This makes googling a challenge, as there is more noise than light.
The gist of their initial calculations was that the initial estimate was based on 10 years of revenue - from 2010 - but only 6 years of expenditure, to reflect that most provisions of Obamacare didn't come into effect until 2014. The CBO was not happy about that, and subsequently revised once real numbers were available.
At this time of night that's the best I can do.
There is of course much research on that precise subject, but I don't see much of it as objective.
I'm almost done with my first experience of Obamacare and will post on that when it's complete.