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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori November 2013 Issues Index and Local By-Election
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos Mori November 2013 Issues Index and Local By-Election Results : November 28th 2013
Immigration is in second place, as it has been for the last five months, is race relations/immigration, with 35% concerned, but this fieldwork happened before recent before the recent migration data.
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Best prices - Scottish independence referendum 18 September 2014
Yes 5/1 (BetVictor)
No 1/5 (Betfair)
I can't wait til the bookies start listing prices for Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (John Thurso MP, Lib Dem, Maj. = 4,826). The Scottish Lib Dems don't even have the guts to put up candidates these days. A fatal error in seats they know they must shortly defend.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10481280/Scotland-The-case-for-the-Union-is-still-strong-so-why-not-make-it.html
I wonder if David Cameron has seen a recording of that STV debate between his man Carmichael and the Deputy FM? If he has he must be filling his breeks.
FPT: Question for those who know Parliamentary Procedures well. Now that the Wharton bill has passed the Commons, if it dies in the Lords can it be re-introduced next year and have the Parliament Act used to force it through with Commons approval alone?
5/1 still implies an 83% chance of failure, yet reading this site it seems like its almost a certainty
Not that he could ever officially say it.
The worries about immigration have more to do with the economy, unemployment, the NHS and schools than race for most people I would have thought.
In other news. Cameron has completely lost it and I agree with Tim and others that he's just not very good.
For those who don't get Populus's weekly survey on what people remember about the news, this week nobody remembers anything, more or less. 11% manage to recall the typhoon, 9% recall the alleged slaves, 8% think they've seen something about immigration, and everything else is lower. Scotland, Watkins, Nigella, Flowers, Iran, energy prices and Plebgate are all also-rans. The survey was done over the last two days, so really quite striking that people have barely noticed the Scottish debate.
Something to remember as we shout to each other that the latest political development is going to DESTROY one or another party FOREVER. We politics nerds are the stamp collectors of modern life, earnestly obsessed, mildly despised, capable of raising faint public interest on rare occasions, and risibly amazed that our friends aren't as excited as we are that we've seen a report of an inverted Comoros Blue.
"House music is the nads".
Did you spend time at the Hacienda?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25159260
I've never said I expect people to vote to leave the EU, just because I think we should.
"What pop song should Ed and Labour choose as their anthem in 2015, in the way Things Can Only Get Better by D:Ream was used by Blair in 1997"
Could someone please explain to me the mathematics of the above ? If it is a GAIN then relatively the Independent must have done better than the SNP. Unless it was a HOLD.
As I say I have no view on whether the result should be Yes or No
My personal favourites are the numerous loose cannons, with Ian Davidson MP the current star of the crop.
"Roger, I'm tempted to do a thread entitled
"What pop song should Ed and Labour choose as their anthem in 2015, in the way Things Can Only Get Better by D:Ream was used by Blair in 1997""
Excellent idea but you'll need a different clientele. People who spend their time discussing the relative comfort of Club Class seats are probably not too interested in the arts in any
guise
PS Was the Hacienda before your time?
Hopi Sen @hopisen 1m
Q: if Indy Scotland is, even temporarily, outside EU, won't rUK have to have some sort of border control? Eg see this
http://ec.europa.eu/immigration/tab3.do?subSec=16&language=7$en
www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqxENMKaeCU
Not necessarily saying you were that Kipper, just some of your compadres.
Also I wasn't setting the bar of UKIP unrealistic expectations as high as EU withdrawal, more that expecting half a dozen UKIP MPs is a triumph of hope over experience.
The difference is that we at least have the consolation of seeing regular leads for our cause in the polls. The Scots Nationalists (for all that I support their aims) do seem to be in denial about the polling so far.
Mark Senior will be proud of you.
Personally I expect over 10% of the vote but either 0 or 1 MP for UKIP in GE 2015
"We're you in the Hacienda in the late eighties?"
An occasional visitor. I was and am a friend of Alan Erasmus and had friends who used to drag me down. You'll enjoy Ch4 News if you missed it. A real trip down memory lane
If I had any spare capital left I would invest it, but I'm afraid that barring another monster pay rise (I got 5.7% last year) I can't foresee me having much spare cash for the foreseeable.
Incidentally, I do not think that Yes is going to win. As I've said all along, I haven't got a clue who is going to win, but the current prices are just silly billy territory.
"Bangkok Girl -- Thailand Night Life Documentary":
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqo3DA9ymOM&
This is the way to go ! Solar prices dropping. Battery prices dropping. We won't need energy companies soon.
Patrick Diamond, who worked for Gordon Brown in Downing Street and is now an academic at Queen Mary University of London, says Labour is "generally not trusted to manage the economy", which means that many of its policies on other issues are not believed.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/29/labour-weak-economic-strategy-warns-brown-adviser-patrick-diamond?CMP=twt_gu
I'm off to the pub now in my new tartan shirt! Doing my bit!
His appointment of Alistair Darling was a masterstroke.
His appointment of Alistair Carmichael was a blopper from which No may never recover.
I can't wait to see his next move.
I am a Conservative or Lib Dem who is happy with the coalition (28% of the voting population).
(1) If I am a Lib Dem living in Selly Oak in 2015, who will I vote for in 2015?
(2) If I am a Conservative living in Cardiff Central, who will I vote for in 2015?
Mike has spent month considering (1) and no time at all considering (2).
"I'm off to the pub now in my new tartan shirt! Doing my bit!"
You'll look liike a Canadian Mountie. Even Alex Salmond wouldn't be seen in one of those!
When English people (and I mean normal English people, not the politics geeks who inhabit PB) do eventually take notice of the IndyRef I just wonder if that fact in itself might actually influence the final result?
I'm thinking here of stunning TV clips like this:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/welcome-to-the-debate/
Now, that was a one-off boon for the Yes campaign, but when England genuinely wakes up clips like that might become daily events. That is something totally outwith Darling's control.
I was in Cardiff on Wed, best night out I'd had in years, completely mental.
I just find some Welsh rugby fans a bit annoying and arrogant.
And yes I'm aware of the irony of an England rugby fan, calling other fans annoying and arrogant, but there's only so many times you can hear the suggestion from Welsh fans where I can shove the sweet chariot.
":Contribute! Suggest something positive that the No campaign could do."
Point out that Alex new best friend is Donald Trump........well not so new but it certainly seemed to fire up a lot of people I was speaking to
"I was in Cardiff on Wed, best night out I'd had in years"
It must have changed in the last 5 years or perhaps they were celebrating their most famous son's birthday?
Here's hoping.
This purse hath she inwith her bosom hid.
Outwith just sounds pretentious with implied pseudo-legal connotations.
Tim, I think you've confused the words 'we' and 'I'. Have you ever had a conversation with an actual person where they've called David Cameron 'a red angry fop'? Maybe the same people who talk about 'Grant Spiv' and 'Messiah Gove'.
'In May, Mr. Trump called Mr. Salmond "Mad Alex" in a scathing column in a U.K. newspaper. He has labeled Mr. Salmond's green-energy push an "obsession" and the wind farm a potential "blight" on Scotland's blustery coastline.
He has also accused Mr. Salmond of assuring him at the time of his initial £750 million ($1.19 billion) investment that no windmills would be built within eyesight of the planned development. Mr. Trump is sole owner and developer of the resort.
" Alex Salmond has a death wish for Scotland, where he wants to put these horrendous industrial wind turbines all over the place," Mr. Trump said in a telephone interview last week.'
Osborne has done a great job in turning Labour's shit around without creating mass unemployment, even the hapless Blanchflower has finally admitted what the rest of us knew, that he was completely wrong.
Electing a LD is flipping a coin and seeing if it randomly lands Blue or Red side up after the election is over.
Roberta Blackman-Woods
Kevin Brennan
Willie Bain
" Alex Salmond has a death wish for Scotland, where he wants to put these horrendous industrial wind turbines all over the place," Mr. Trump said in a telephone interview last week.'
I heard about the lovers tiff. Even the Saatchis said some rude things about each other. The truth of the tiff is that AS is putting wind farms in eye shot of his precious golf course. An ecological disaster
http://www.foe.co.uk/green-blog/esther-woolfson-winter-journal
New Street Station.
Who could forget the housing slump of 1997-2007, when Brown built a whole economy on a massive debt bubble? When you only had to spell your name right to get another further advance? Were you moaning then?
Osborne has done a great job in turning Labour's shit around without creating mass unemployment, even the hapless Blanchflower has finally admitted what the rest of us knew, that he was completely wrong.
I demand you show where Danny Blanchflower has ever admitted he is wrong. Such a thing is not possible!
" As an environmental professional, the woeful performance of Paterson"
That was the point I made last week. Even though the numbers might be small Cameron's green u-turn is an absolute deal breaker. Those voters have gone.
The accents alone.
New Street Station.
I'll grant you New St Station; despite spending millions it seems to be getting worse, and from a low starting point. But otherwise Birmingham has improved immeasurably since I was a student there in the mid 80's. In my view now Britain's most under-rated city.
I do note expect negotiations to get that hostile, but still...
Agree New St station is horible, though conveniently central, unlike the HS2 station. The accents alone.
New Street Station.
I'll grant you New St Station; despite spending millions it seems to be getting worse, and from a low starting point. But otherwise Birmingham has improved immeasurably since I was a student there in the mid 80's. In my view now Britain's most under-rated city.
@jimmurphymp
Terrible here in Glasgow Helicopter crashed into roof of pub
http://tinyurl.com/p6xajtr