politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will it be English Tories that swings the IndyRef for the Y

Neil said:

dont delude yourself into thinking a yes vote means anything other than independence.

Without an understanding of exactly what "independence" looks like, it's deluded to imagine that it will be delivered unequivocally in the event of a yes

An employee was based in Scotland, but working for an English company (e.g. as a local sales rep) would presumably have to pay Scottish taxes to the Scottish equivalent of HMRC. THis is going to be a nightmare for English based payroll, is it not?

It would suggest Berwick upon Tweed might become a tax haven.

Fear my Victor Chandler account may be next up for the chop after today ^~°

Gerry_Mander said:

An employee was based in Scotland, but working for an English company (e.g. as a local sales rep) would presumably have to pay Scottish taxes to the Scottish equivalent of HMRC. THis is going to be a nightmare for English based payroll, is it not?

It would suggest Berwick upon Tweed might become a tax haven.

I'd love to see how the crossover between payrolls (and tax information) between HMRC and whatever the Scottish called their tax office would work....

Especially that a lot of HMRC is based in Scotland at the moment.

The mother of all clusterf**ks come to mind... especially with the IT systems..

yee gods.

A Schengen opt-out would probably be a pretty easy one for the Scots to negotiate when they are sorting out their EU membership.

Scott_P said:

Gerry_Mander said:

It would suggest Berwick upon Tweed might become a tax haven.

It's interesting that the SNP wish list for separation includes all manner of things from England. About the only thing they don't want is Berwick...

Are you sure?

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/feb/13/scotland.scotland

Oh, and the Sirotkin to Sauber deal appears to be in some doubt, which will help Esteban Gutierrez to remain.

Slackbladder said:

I'd love to see how the crossover between payrolls (and tax information) between HMRC and whatever the Scottish called their tax office would work....

Especially that a lot of HMRC is based in Scotland at the moment.

The mother of all clusterf**ks come to mind... especially with the IT systems..

yee gods.

Would the Scottish NHS be different? Are there any hospitals covering both sides of the border?

Be careful what you wish for... If Scotland becomes independent, you can bet your bottom dollar that English & Welsh politics would rebalance in such a way that the Tory-Labour-Lib Dem balance would end up being pretty much the same as it is currently for GB.

Dadge said:

Be careful what you wish for... If Scotland becomes independent, you can bet your bottom dollar that English & Welsh politics would rebalance in such a way that the Tory-Labour-Lib Dem balance would end up being pretty much the same as it is currently for GB.

Indeed they would. The idea that the Conservative and Unionist Party can give itself a permanent political advantage by covertly encouraging the breakup of the union is very naive.

anothernick said:

Dadge said:

Be careful what you wish for... If Scotland becomes independent, you can bet your bottom dollar that English & Welsh politics would rebalance in such a way that the Tory-Labour-Lib Dem balance would end up being pretty much the same as it is currently for GB.

Indeed they would. The idea that the Conservative and Unionist Party can give itself a permanent political advantage by covertly encouraging the breakup of the union is very naive.

Then the Deputy Leader of Scottish Labour is very naive.

Perhaps that explains SLAB's current malaise.

SeanT said:

anothernick said:

Dadge said:

Be careful what you wish for... If Scotland becomes independent, you can bet your bottom dollar that English & Welsh politics would rebalance in such a way that the Tory-Labour-Lib Dem balance would end up being pretty much the same as it is currently for GB.

Indeed they would. The idea that the Conservative and Unionist Party can give itself a permanent political advantage by covertly encouraging the breakup of the union is very naive.

However I agree the advantage would not be permanent: Labour would recuperate (probably as a slightly more rightwing version of what they are now). The Tory supremacy would last no longer than a decade.

Margaret Thatcher was in power for around a decade, and the country has never been the same*.

* This is a good/bad thing depending on your politics.

Madness = queuing outside an Asda in Belfast at 5am which isn't due to open for 3 hours.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25150109

Theuniondivvie said:

Gerry_Mander said:

Would the Scottish NHS be different? Are there any hospitals covering both sides of the border?

The Scottish NHS has always been separate since the inception of the NHS.

What happens to people who need A&E, if they live near Berwick, but on the Scottish side?

AndyJS said:

Madness = queuing outside an Asda in Belfast at 5am which isn't due to open for 3 hours.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25150109

I remember doing that outside Toys'r'us quite a few years ago in the snow to buy a Furby. We all kept warm by coming up with ever more imaginative ideas about what we could do to the blasted thing. By about February no one would have noticed either.

Funnily enough Jingle All the Way never struck me as even vaguely funny.

tessyC said:

If Scotland leaves the Union I don't think that will mean substantially more devolution to Wales, not more than has already been suggested. Wales unlike Scotland has not got the capacity for devo max, thats goes before the fact most recent polls suggests the public is split or marginally against the devolution of a small part of income tax. Also the Tories seem to have overcome (not totally) the scars of the 80s and 90s far better in Wales than Scotland.

Also - Wales is far more divided than Scotland - North Wales would prefer to be run by London than by Cardiff...

Oh those Germans:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25151961

I really can't begin to get my head around the appeal of this particular fantasy.

Good news for proponents of gender balance in Parliament:

In 51 of Labour's top 100 targets a female candidate has been chosen, with 6 seats still to select.

AndyJS said:

Good news for proponents of gender balance in Parliament:

In 51 of Labour's top 100 targets a female candidate has been chosen, with 6 seats still to select.

I had an interesting discussion with my CEO when we were considering whether to add a new member to the Board. She advocated someone on the ground that she would improve the gender balance. When I replied that I didn't care about gender balance, I just wanted the most qualified people she just looked stunned. Didn't get the concept at all. (Admittedly there are still a lot of my father's friends on the board, but that will change gradually over time)

SeanT said:

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

I'm f&cking bored of winter already, and it isn't even winter yet.

Farcical climate.

Which country are you visiting next? Times assignment maybe...

My next gig is Ko Samui and Ko Tao in Thailand for the Times in January, then the Iles des Saintes and the French/Dutch Caribbean in Feb. Then the Barrier Reef and the Whitsundays in March.

It's a hard life being a travel writer - I almost feel sorry for you...

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

david_herdson said:

There might be a sense of "what the hell have we done" among some, but the sense that they have indeed done it will quickly embed itself. In this case, yes means yes.

The voters are not going to reward Eck for selling them a pig in a poke.

Well more fool them if they buy it, as Unionist campaigners will no doubt say over the next year, albeit more subtly than that.

Will make a change as the unionists have had no story to tell so far

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will album and single sales in an Independent Scotland still form part of the UK single and album charts?

Or will they get their own top 40 and X-Factor?

Will rumpUK allow us to have singles and albums

SeanT said:

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

I'm f&cking bored of winter already, and it isn't even winter yet.

Farcical climate.

Which country are you visiting next? Times assignment maybe...

The problem with my job is that the more you go away to sunny places, the more intolerable the chilliness of England becomes. I've just done a month in Zambia then Thailand (with a weekend in London in between), so coming back to 5C is a shocker.

But my daughter forgets my face if I go away any more than this...

My next gig is Ko Samui and Ko Tao in Thailand for the Times in January, then the Iles des Saintes and the French/Dutch Caribbean in Feb. Then the Barrier Reef and the Whitsundays in March.

But until then, Brrr....

I am now having a massive G&T and listening to Bobby Darin, to cheer myself up.

Any coping with jet lag tips gratefully received. It's nearly a week since I got back from Korea - where it is much colder than here btw - and I am still falling asleep randomly during the evening and waking up for the day at around 4.30 am.

Interesting fact - the South Koreans style themselves the Italians of Asia. They are a passionate, argumentative bunch apparently. I didn't see much of that, but they are definitely a lot more open and immediately friendly than the Chinese and Japanese. And Christ they hate the Japanese. They really do.

SeanT said:

Neil said:

SeanT said:

As I say, your assertion is based on unending English goodwill accommodating every Scottish desire. This is dim and historically unlikely.

No, my assertion is based on what anyone in power has actually said on the subject (do you have any minister from either Government out there supporting a frontier?) and on the only other example we have to go on but, more importantly, it's mainly based on both sides doing what's in their own best interests.

No one has thought about an Anglo-Scottish frontier, because no one realised that Scotland would have a significantly different immigration policy to England. Which is not surprising, as the Nats only announced the fact this week.

Have you been asleep for the last 2 years

Charles said:

AndyJS said:

Good news for proponents of gender balance in Parliament:

In 51 of Labour's top 100 targets a female candidate has been chosen, with 6 seats still to select.

I had an interesting discussion with my CEO when we were considering whether to add a new member to the Board. She advocated someone on the ground that she would improve the gender balance. When I replied that I didn't care about gender balance, I just wanted the most qualified people she just looked stunned. Didn't get the concept at all. (Admittedly there are still a lot of my father's friends on the board, but that will change gradually over time)

There is a lot to be said for gender balance at board level in my view. Different insights and perspectives are hugely valuable. And a dilution of testosterone can be a very good thing as it makes for calmer, more reflective decision-making. When you say "most qualified" what does that actually mean? I can see why that is important for highly technical roles, but you can only become an experienced senior executive if someone gives you the chance to be one.

isam said:

Struggling to think of a reason why Ian Watkins and Michael Adebelajo shouldn't be tortured.

No possibility of being innocent, and the latter, who should be tried for treason, has the front to plead not guilty

Among other reasons, because torture demeans us. Just because someone else behaves appallingly beyond imagination does not mean that we should act in the same way.

isam said:

Struggling to think of a reason why Ian Watkins and Michael Adebelajo shouldn't be tortured.

No possibility of being innocent, and the latter, who should be tried for treason, has the front to plead not guilty

Because we are better than that. They are going to have very miserable, violent lives in prison for the next 40 plus years.

"STJOHN", (St.John, The Jumps, Occasional Horseracing Nod), has a bet for tomorrow's big race. The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury.

Invictus beat both Bob's Worth and Silviniaco Conti in his last outing at Ascot in the Reynoldstown Grade 2 Chase at Ascot over 3 miles, Good to Soft. That was back in February 2012, so he is coming back off a long lay off due to a tendon injury.

Invictus beats Bob's Worth fair and square by 3L, receiving 3lbs. Bob's Worth does make a couple of mistakes but they're not major and the form of the race looks very solid.

Bob's Worth went on to win the RSA Chase at Cheltenham in March 2012 and then last season raced just twice, winning last year's Hennessy and the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

So on the form Invictus looks thrown in at tomorrow's weights. The major problems are the long lay off, the lack of a prep race and the doubts about any horse coming back after an injury. Trainer Alan King has been saying he is an absurd price and at 7/1-8/1 he looked tight enough. But he's now out to 10/1. He also won first time out two year's ago, so can win when fresh.

For me he's not one to back each way as he could easily finish down the field through lack of fitness or lack of experience. But he could romp home and at 10/1 he's worth a punt. The danger for me is Lord Windermere. He won the RSA Chase last year and the last 3 winners of that race to contest the Hennessy the following year have all won.

Invictus 10/1 win bet BOG

I'm on!

surbiton said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

I'm f&cking bored of winter already, and it isn't even winter yet.

Farcical climate.

Which country are you visiting next? Times assignment maybe...

The problem with my job is that the more you go away to sunny places, the more intolerable the chilliness of England becomes. I've just done a month in Zambia then Thailand (with a weekend in London in between), so coming back to 5C is a shocker.

But my daughter forgets my face if I go away any more than this...

My next gig is Ko Samui and Ko Tao in Thailand for the Times in January, then the Iles des Saintes and the French/Dutch Caribbean in Feb. Then the Barrier Reef and the Whitsundays in March.

But until then, Brrr....

I am now having a massive G&T and listening to Bobby Darin, to cheer myself up.

Any coping with jet lag tips gratefully received. It's nearly a week since I got back from Korea - where it is much colder than here btw - and I am still falling asleep randomly during the evening and waking up for the day at around 4.30 am.

Interesting fact - the South Koreans style themselves the Italians of Asia. They are a passionate, argumentative bunch apparently. I didn't see much of that, but they are definitely a lot more open and immediately friendly than the Chinese and Japanese. And Christ they hate the Japanese. They really do.

I find coming back from the Far East quite easy. My problem has been always when I am there.
A weekend sleeping away got rid of the jet lag.

I do have a sleep problem now [ more to do with age, methinks ]. I wake up after about 5 hours sleep feeling fully fresh but after a couple of hours as morning beckons really feel sleepy again.

The worst for me by a long chalk is the US West Coast. There is nothing more miserable than waking up for the day before midnight and I do it all the time when I am over there.

SouthamObserver said:

Any coping with jet lag tips gratefully received. It's nearly a week since I got back from Korea - where it is much colder than here btw - and I am still falling asleep randomly during the evening and waking up for the day at around 4.30 am.

Interesting fact - the South Koreans style themselves the Italians of Asia. They are a passionate, argumentative bunch apparently. I didn't see much of that, but they are definitely a lot more open and immediately friendly than the Chinese and Japanese. And Christ they hate the Japanese. They really do.

I stopped having a problem with jetlag when I got the trick of dropping off for a few hours on the way. I had what was basically a day trip to Shanghai the other day - out Monday, conference Tuesday, back Wednesday - and it was fine: you have a couple of days when you vaguely think you're a bit underslept and that's it. Works for longer trips too, so it's not a body clock thing. But I do take a sleeping pill to encourage the process. If you have to change planes it makes the process significantly more tiresome, though.

Seoul seemed pretty earnest to me, though as you say quite friendly and open; like you I was solidly blocked with meetings. It seemed ironical that it was full of sober-looking people hurrying about their business while Ho Chi Minh City was more like Spain, with exuberant crowds, pavements cafes, blaring music and chaotic traffic. Spot the autocracy.

antifrank said:

isam said:

Struggling to think of a reason why Ian Watkins and Michael Adebelajo shouldn't be tortured.

No possibility of being innocent, and the latter, who should be tried for treason, has the front to plead not guilty

Among other reasons, because torture demeans us. Just because someone else behaves appallingly beyond imagination does not mean that we should act in the same way.

(in non aggressive tones)

But does it? & shouldn't we?

To me it's one of those where I think they should be tortured, then I think "no, no that would drag us down to their level", then I think "on reflection, they should be tortured"

I don't think it would be us acting the same, as our actions would be justified by their wrongdoing

surbiton said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

While we're talking Asia... Incidentally, EVA Air Biz Class London-Bangkok is now superb. They've joined Staralliance so you get a nice lounge in LHR T3. They've also got full-on sleep podules in Biz - just as good as anything in BA (which is TWICE as expensive).

The Dom Perignon doesn't stop. The food is sometimes brilliant (and never dull). They have a proper aired cheese board, not chilled dull obloids of Cheddar. Endless soothing and grooming from lovely young Taiwanese stewardesses.

Phenomenal. Asia is kicking our butt from here to Betelgeuse.

I have done Emirates and Singapore business this year along with BA. And BA is miles behind both in every way, except the most important: they go to almost all the places you need to get to.

My frequent flyers are with Emirates and Singapore. But this time on the way back I hopped ona Qantas from Dubai to LHR [ Emirates partner ]. Wow !!

Yes, I've heard Qantas is the nads and Air New Zealand too. I guess they are directly competing with the Asians most of the time so have to be right up there too. BA is up against the European and US airlines a lot more, and they are not so much competition. I am flying the double decker plane to Hong Kong with BA next may. I'll be interested to see how that will shape up.

Jesus - what a knob I sound. Apologies!!

Went on a date with a girl from North Kent last month and she said that homeless/drug addicts in hostels were being rehoused on the Kent coast (Margate, Broadstairs, Whitstable) and the locals are up in arms... just seen it confirmed (the homeless part) on BBC London News... Seaside towns in Sussex & Essex the destination

To be fair , the girl from Newham who has been forced to Hastings can have my spare room if she likes... beautiful!

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Any coping with jet lag tips gratefully received. It's nearly a week since I got back from Korea - where it is much colder than here btw - and I am still falling asleep randomly during the evening and waking up for the day at around 4.30 am.

Interesting fact - the South Koreans style themselves the Italians of Asia. They are a passionate, argumentative bunch apparently. I didn't see much of that, but they are definitely a lot more open and immediately friendly than the Chinese and Japanese. And Christ they hate the Japanese. They really do.

I stopped having a problem with jetlag when I got the trick of dropping off for a few hours on the way. I had what was basically a day trip to Shanghai the other day - out Monday, conference Tuesday, back Wednesday - and it was fine: you have a couple of days when you vaguely think you're a bit underslept and that's it. Works for longer trips too, so it's not a body clock thing. But I do take a sleeping pill to encourage the process. If you have to change planes it makes the process significantly more tiresome, though.

Seoul seemed pretty earnest to me, though as you say quite friendly and open; like you I was solidly blocked with meetings. It seemed ironical that it was full of sober-looking people hurrying about their business while Ho Chi Minh City was more like Spain, with exuberant crowds, pavements cafes, blaring music and chaotic traffic. Spot the autocracy.

Never been to Nam. I'd like to.

The state is everywhere in Korea if my experience is anything to go by. There is a lot of central planning, with companies working together for the common good and a lot of government directed industrial policy. They are very wary of the big conglomerates like Samsung, Hyundai and LG there because they are not regarded as being team players. They also have a reputation for squeezing SMEs. While a lot of US and European start-ups aim to be bought out by bigger businesses, I was told that in Korea that is not seen as a desirable outcome for an SME - it means that you have failed in some way.

AndyJS said:

"Portillo and guests - Scotland's independence":

www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcT11EIl7X8&amp

Last night Portillo was saying Salmond had bottled it and was hoping for Devo Max* or Independence Lite

*I don't know what Devo Max is... a halfway house?

@Sean_T Fed to pigs...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2515069/Gangster-kills-rival-feeding-alive-pigs-year-feud-members-Italian-crime-syndicate.html

AndyJS said:

Are there any other Japan / David Sylvian fans on the site? I'm obsessed with the band, although I wasn't even around when they started.

I saw them at the Hammersmith in the early 80s. It turned out to be their final tour, but I don't think it was thought to be at the time. As I remember it they announced that just before or during the Hammersmith stint. I came back early from a trip or holiday or something to see them, and had been dithering re whether to go or wait for the *next time*, so I was glad I'd come back. 'Ghosts' was one of those tracks I'd sing along to really loudly, doing lots of dramatic gesturing, when home alone.

SeanT said:

surbiton said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

While we're talking Asia... Incidentally, EVA Air Biz Class London-Bangkok is now superb. They've joined Staralliance so you get a nice lounge in LHR T3. They've also got full-on sleep podules in Biz - just as good as anything in BA (which is TWICE as expensive).

The Dom Perignon doesn't stop. The food is sometimes brilliant (and never dull). They have a proper aired cheese board, not chilled dull obloids of Cheddar. Endless soothing and grooming from lovely young Taiwanese stewardesses.

Phenomenal. Asia is kicking our butt from here to Betelgeuse.

I have done Emirates and Singapore business this year along with BA. And BA is miles behind both in every way, except the most important: they go to almost all the places you need to get to.

My frequent flyers are with Emirates and Singapore. But this time on the way back I hopped ona Qantas from Dubai to LHR [ Emirates partner ]. Wow !!

I did Qantas Biz Class Sydney-LHR last year (and will be doing the whole return thing next March). Meh.

No better than BA.

Asian airlines are better than European which are better than American which are better than African.

Went to Oz last year, cattle class admittedly, but The Qantas A380 knocked the BA 747 into a cocked hat.

For those who don't get Populus's weekly survey on what people remember about the news, this week nobody remembers anything, more or less. 11% manage to recall the typhoon, 9% recall the alleged slaves, 8% think they've seen something about immigration, and everything else is lower. Scotland, Watkins, Nigella, Flowers, Iran, energy prices and Plebgate are all also-rans. The survey was done over the last two days, so really quite striking that people have barely noticed the Scottish debate.

Something to remember as we shout to each other that the latest political development is going to DESTROY one or another party FOREVER. We politics nerds are the stamp collectors of modern life, earnestly obsessed, mildly despised, capable of raising faint public interest on rare occasions, and risibly amazed that our friends aren't as excited as we are that we've seen a report of an inverted Comoros Blue.