politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Coming back to EU – can A50 be revoked?
Comments
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Whilst that might be convenient....Sunil_Prasannan said:
"It's not about the money. It's about sending a message... Everything burns!"MarqueeMark said:Completely O/T, but does anybody here have any involvement with bright new ideas about what we might do with old tyre mountains?
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Oh yeah right, so if they quote some old has-been climate change denier, it doesn't count as their headline - like, they don't really think that themselves about 'Eeyore Phil'. Hahahah!Sunil_Prasannan said:
"And that's the word that Nigel Lawson, not the Mail, used"Benpointer said:
Are they worse than this?Alanbrooke said:
I take it you don't read german newspapers ?Benpointer said:
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!SouthamObserver said:
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.logical_song said:
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.Alanbrooke said:
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.AlastairMeeks said:
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.Alanbrooke said:
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017AlastairMeeks said:
The time for a change.Alanbrooke said:
"we'rone"AlastairMeeks said:
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".TGOHF said:
cant see that working myself
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ?
Them : well no, don't be stupid
Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo
Them: ws in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak
Them: yeah suppose so
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But the onus is on the EU - it SHALL negotiate and conclude an agreement. Obligatory. If it doesn't, the Leaver state could argue that the EU has acted in bad faith and is in breach of its Treaty obligations.BudG said:Devil's advocate for a moment.
Is no deal even an option??
"2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union…"
If no agreement is reached, could it be argued that Article 50 has not been complied with?0 -
Sometimes on Devon farms these mountains inexplicably catch fire, and the farmer is beside himself with grief at the loss of his tyre collection.MarqueeMark said:Completely O/T, but does anybody here have any involvement with bright new ideas about what we might do with old tyre mountains?
You can make them into jumps for horses. You can shred Indian tyres to make flooring for arenas for horses, but not first world ones because they have metal in them.0 -
No, for the reasons quoted down thread there is a stop gap provision in 50 (3) "the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2..." The Treaties cease to apply whether there is an agreement or not.BudG said:Devil's advocate for a moment.
Is no deal even an option??
"2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union…"
If no agreement is reached, could it be argued that Article 50 has not been complied with?0 -
Mr. Mark, ha.
The EU follows the rules when it feels like it. So, no pre-negotiation with the UK before Article 50 is triggered. But if nations want to bend the rules so they 'meet' the criteria to join the single currency, that's fine.0 -
That will be really useful when the shops run out of food.MarqueeMark said:
But the onus is on the EU - it SHALL negotiate and conclude an agreement. Obligatory. If it doesn't, the Leaver state could argue that the EU has acted in bad faith and is in breach of its Treaty obligations.BudG said:Devil's advocate for a moment.
Is no deal even an option??
"2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union…"
If no agreement is reached, could it be argued that Article 50 has not been complied with?0 -
And? What is the remedy?MarqueeMark said:
But the onus is on the EU - it SHALL negotiate and conclude an agreement. Obligatory. If it doesn't, the Leaver state could argue that the EU has acted in bad faith and is in breach of its Treaty obligations.BudG said:Devil's advocate for a moment.
Is no deal even an option??
"2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union…"
If no agreement is reached, could it be argued that Article 50 has not been complied with?0 -
Well, the main headlines in Bild are currently Trump's withdrawal from UNESCO and Harvey Weinstein. There seems to be very little about internal German politics, so it doesn't really support your contention that Germany is less stable than the UK at all.Alanbrooke said:
make your own mind upBenpointer said:
Are they worse than this?Alanbrooke said:
I take it you don't read german newspapers ?Benpointer said:
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!SouthamObserver said:
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.logical_song said:
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ?
Them : well no, don't be stupid
Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo
Them: well no
Me : Are we less stable than Spain ?
Them: no have you see Catalonia
Me: Italy ?
Them: laughter
Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ?
Them: well France has always been a mess
Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak
Them: yeah suppose so
http://www.bild.de/
Perhaps you should consider reading a more upmarket paper. Die Zeit or the Frankfurter Allgemeine, perhaps?0 -
Switzerland isn't a member of Euratom. It has a number of co-operation agreements with it. Bit similar to "access to Single Market", eg USA versus EU MemberSunil_Prasannan said:Somebody tell Faisal Islam that Switzerland is a member of Euratom.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/07/18/no-such-thing-as-associate-membership-euratom/0 -
Kids and matches, eh? Cuh.....Ishmael_Z said:
Sometimes on Devon farms these mountains inexplicably catch fire, and the farmer is beside himself with grief at the loss of his tyre collection.MarqueeMark said:Completely O/T, but does anybody here have any involvement with bright new ideas about what we might do with old tyre mountains?
You can make them into jumps for horses. You can shred Indian tyres to make flooring for arenas for horses, but not first world ones because they have metal in them.0 -
like those extremely careless badgers that seem always to get knocked over right by the side of the road...MarqueeMark said:
Kids and matches, eh? Cuh.....Ishmael_Z said:
Sometimes on Devon farms these mountains inexplicably catch fire, and the farmer is beside himself with grief at the loss of his tyre collection.MarqueeMark said:Completely O/T, but does anybody here have any involvement with bright new ideas about what we might do with old tyre mountains?
You can make them into jumps for horses. You can shred Indian tyres to make flooring for arenas for horses, but not first world ones because they have metal in them.0 -
My bad. Associated member state:FF43 said:
Switzerland isn't a member of Euratom. It has a number of co-operation agreements with it. Bit similar to "access to Single Market", eg USA versus EU MemberSunil_Prasannan said:Somebody tell Faisal Islam that Switzerland is a member of Euratom.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/07/18/no-such-thing-as-associate-membership-euratom/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Atomic_Energy_Community
Since 2014, Switzerland has participated in Euratom programmes as an associated state.[1]
As of 2016, the community had co-operation agreements of various scopes with eight countries: the United States, Japan, Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and South Africa.[10]0 -
LOL!MarqueeMark said:
I don't think Roger has quite had a hand in 81 Oscars.Alanbrooke said:
PBs Harvey Weinstein speaksRoger said:
It's gone wrong because it was based on lies. I don't know if anyone watched a program called Detectives on BBC 2? A quite excellent documentary where we follow the Manchester police solve three separate murders.logical_song said:
"It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent."AlastairMeeks said:
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side, have you not noticed that it's not Remain supporters but your fellow headbangers who are getting steadily angrier at present? They've moved on from Remoaners to demanding loyalty tests of Conservative politicians who previously supported Remain and haven't recanted to their sufficient satisfaction yet, to accusing a current serving Cabinet minister of treachery and sabotage.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent.
Rewards for the uninvolved, however, does not bode well for the Conservatives.
Spot on.
What was interesting was how everything was done by simple procedure. Inspiration didn't play a part and the brilliance of the documentary was how the cases were allowed to unfold without commentary.
Watching how the murderers were undone it was difficult not to think about Brexit and how it unravelled when the thread of truth was broken. Or as Walter Scott said and as the Brexiterrs are learning to their cost "Oh the twisted web we weave when first we practice to deceive.
Actually, I could have phrased that better....0 -
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Agreed. Expect more of this as the full extent of the looming disaster becomes impossible to ignore or gloss over.logical_song said:
"It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent."AlastairMeeks said:
Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side, have you not noticed that it's not Remain supporters but your fellow headbangers who are getting steadily angrier at present? They've moved on from Remoaners to demanding loyalty tests of Conservative politicians who previously supported Remain and haven't recanted to their sufficient satisfaction yet, to accusing a current serving Cabinet minister of treachery and sabotage.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent.
Rewards for the uninvolved, however, does not bode well for the Conservatives.
Spot on.0 -
That is true, up to a point. Not every negotiation ends in agreement and sometimes that is not due to acting in bad faith by either party. Sometimes the two sides are so far apart that, with all the good faith in the world, an agreement cannot be reached.MarqueeMark said:
But the onus is on the EU - it SHALL negotiate and conclude an agreement. Obligatory. If it doesn't, the Leaver state could argue that the EU has acted in bad faith and is in breach of its Treaty obligations.BudG said:Devil's advocate for a moment.
Is no deal even an option??
"2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union…"
If no agreement is reached, could it be argued that Article 50 has not been complied with?0 -
If we have passed an inflection point in the polling on Brexit, Leavers need to think about how they can ever hope to win back support. Spending money on preparing the baricades for No Deal while using a premium rate helpline for Universal Credit is not going to work.0
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Mr. Pointer, if it's impossible to leave the EU without disaster, are we members, or captives? And who signed away so much power without ever consulting the electorate?0
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Except the Treaty OBLIGES them to. This is not two people arguing over - and failing to reach agreement on - the price of a car. This is 28 States ordering them to.BudG said:
That is true, up to a point. Not every negotiation ends in agreement and sometimes that is not due to acting in bad faith by either party. Sometimes the two sides are so far apart that, with all the good faith in the world, an agreement cannot be reached.MarqueeMark said:
But the onus is on the EU - it SHALL negotiate and conclude an agreement. Obligatory. If it doesn't, the Leaver state could argue that the EU has acted in bad faith and is in breach of its Treaty obligations.BudG said:Devil's advocate for a moment.
Is no deal even an option??
"2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union…"
If no agreement is reached, could it be argued that Article 50 has not been complied with?
The UK's hand is stronger than many think. (Including perhaps those negotiating for the UK!)0 -
If we took polls seriously Remain would've won by 10%?williamglenn said:If we have passed an inflection point in the polling on Brexit, Leavers need to think about how they can ever hope to win back support.
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Mr Brooke regularly quotes from FAZ.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Well, the main headlines in Bild are currently Trump's withdrawal from UNESCO and Harvey Weinstein. There seems to be very little about internal German politics, so it doesn't really support your contention that Germany is less stable than the UK at all.Alanbrooke said:
make your own mind upBenpointer said:
Are they worse than this?Alanbrooke said:
I take it you don't read german newspapers ?Benpointer said:
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!SouthamObserver said:
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.logical_song said:
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ?
Them : well no, don't be stupid
Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo
Them: well no
Me : Are we less stable than Spain ?
Them: no have you see Catalonia
Me: Italy ?
Them: laughter
Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ?
Them: well France has always been a mess
Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak
Them: yeah suppose so
http://www.bild.de/
Perhaps you should consider reading a more upmarket paper. Die Zeit or the Frankfurter Allgemeine, perhaps?0 -
I thought I’m the one who’s supposed to be clutching at straws?GIN1138 said:
If we took polls seriously Remain would've won by 10%?williamglenn said:If we have passed an inflection point in the polling on Brexit, Leavers need to think about how they can ever hope to win back support.
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I thought BSE's campaign was pretty unpleasant but I wouldn't go as far as grouping them with AIDS and Bird Flu.another_richard said:
I was thinking about all the 'disaster is certain' predictions during my life:Mortimer said:
Indeed.Alanbrooke said:
5 years out that's a mad call, there are so many other things which can change. Basing everything on the Brexit prism is myopic. It's simply the product of a mindset that cant imagine a different future.AlastairMeeks said:
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next election is likely to be dominated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.Alanbrooke said:
Or more likely by the time an election comes people will be worried about housing, cost of living, NHS and all the other things ordinary people worry about. See GE 2017AlastairMeeks said:
The second part will convince Brexit headbangers who believe simply on the basis of time for a change.Alanbrooke said:
"we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess,
we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"
cant see that working myself
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Some remainers are incandescent; but I remember people being incandescent about fuel prices in the late 90s, about BSE and foot and mouth. About Iraq, even. Not one of them influenced elections in any meaningful ways.
Several Remainers here suggest that Leavers need to own the decision. The reality is that we are. But we're also recognising that time didn't stop on 23rd June 2016. Accepting the result and its implementation are the necessary precursors to moving on. Remainers risk the TONY Benn syndrome of refighting the battles of the 70s in the 80s and 90s.
Nuclear war
Nuclear disaster eg Chernobyl
New ice age
Global warming
Various other ecological disasters - birds dying, bees dying, oceans dying
Oil running out
The Middle Eastern oil fields being set alight in 1991
AIDS, BSE, bird flu etc
The year 2000 computer problem
The gazillions of finanical derivatives in 2008
Project Fear's predictions of a Leave vote
I'm sure I've forgotten many more.0 -
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That bit is needlessly defensive, isn't it?Sunil_Prasannan said:
"And that's the word that Nigel Lawson, not the Mail, used"Benpointer said:
Are they worse than this?Alanbrooke said:
I take it you don't read german newspapers ?Benpointer said:
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!SouthamObserver said:
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.logical_song said:
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.Alanbrooke said:
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.AlastairMeeks said:
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.Alanbrooke said:
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017AlastairMeeks said:
The time for a change.Alanbrooke said:
"we'rone"
cant see that working myself
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ?
Them : well no, don't be stupid
Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo
Them: ws in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak
Them: yeah suppose so
Dacre seems really sensitive about the "saboteur" thing. My theory is the GE result has shaken him to the core. Perhaps his kids came out as remainians/corbynistas or something.0 -
Completely O/T: This article is absolutely fascinating:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/oct/13/the-scientists-persuading-terrorists-to-spill-their-secrets
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Again?williamglenn said:If we have passed an inflection point in the polling on Brexit
Most people aren’t paying attention.
Despite the most disastrous conference speech of all time the Tories collapsed one whole point in the YouGov poll...
I’m afraid you’re going to have to find more substantial straws to clutch at..0 -
Sounds rather like the old Glaswegian industrial units that ‘went on fire’ during the early ‘90s recession.MarqueeMark said:
Kids and matches, eh? Cuh.....Ishmael_Z said:
Sometimes on Devon farms these mountains inexplicably catch fire, and the farmer is beside himself with grief at the loss of his tyre collection.MarqueeMark said:Completely O/T, but does anybody here have any involvement with bright new ideas about what we might do with old tyre mountains?
You can make them into jumps for horses. You can shred Indian tyres to make flooring for arenas for horses, but not first world ones because they have metal in them.0 -
those are also our headlinesBenpointer said:
Er... Trump, Wienstein, student falls off cliff... Yes I can see Germany is in absolute chaosAlanbrooke said:
make your own mind upBenpointer said:
Are they worse than this?Alanbrooke said:
I take it you don't read german newspapers ?Benpointer said:
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!SouthamObserver said:
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.logical_song said:
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.Alanbrooke said:
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.AlastairMeeks said:
Which brings me right back to my original pvoted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.Alanbrooke said:
Or more . See GE 2017AlastairMeeks said:
The time for a change.Alanbrooke said:
"we'rone"AlastairMeeks said:
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".TGOHF said:
cant see that working myself
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
http://www.bild.de/
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It was Lawson who first used the scare of 72 million Turks at our border on Question Time. It crucially turned the tide in favour of Brexit as I said in a header at the time. The man should be taken from his Riviera chateau and be forced to live in Hartlepool.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"And that's the word that Nigel Lawson, not the Mail, used"Benpointer said:
Are they worse than this?Alanbrooke said:
I take it you don't read german newspapers ?Benpointer said:
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!SouthamObserver said:
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.logical_song said:
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.Alanbrooke said:
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.AlastairMeeks said:
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.Alanbrooke said:
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017AlastairMeeks said:
The time for a change.Alanbrooke said:
"we'rone"AlastairMeeks said:
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".TGOHF said:
cant see that working myself
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote0 -
I normally do, FAZ and Die Welt, which is where I quote the Merkel in trouble storiesFeersumEnjineeya said:
Well, the main headlines in Bild are currently Trump's withdrawal from UNESCO and Harvey Weinstein. There seems to be very little about internal German politics, so it doesn't really support your contention that Germany is less stable than the UK at all.Alanbrooke said:
make your own mind upBenpointer said:
Are they worse than this?Alanbrooke said:
I take it you don't read german newspapers ?Benpointer said:
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!SouthamObserver said:
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.logical_song said:
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ?
Them : well no, don't be stupid
Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo
Them: well no
Me : Are we less stable than Spain ?
Them: no have you see Catalonia
Me: Italy ?
Them: laughter
Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ?
Them: well France has always been a mess
Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak
Them: yeah suppose so
http://www.bild.de/
Perhaps you should consider reading a more upmarket paper. Die Zeit or the Frankfurter Allgemeine, perhaps?
BPs question was was there any German paper worse than the DMail
I sent him Bild0 -
Very few forecast disaster? The American President said we'd go to the back of the queue, the Chancellor said we'd need an emergency budget to send small boys up chimneys, and the Prime Minister saw a third world war.TOPPING said:The trouble with the PB Brexiters is that in a 24-hour rolling news channel environment they fight strawmen. They say "look, what disaster?" and, point to the fact that the No.9 bus is still running and Arsene Wenger remains manager at the Emirates.
But very few people forecast a disaster if we voted to Leave. They, we, I said there would be a diminution in the wealth of the nation. For me, in the days of £10 packets of cigarettes, and 5p on the price of a ping, I don't think many people will notice. How would they be able to feel £4,300 worse off than otherwise in a few years? How will they measure the £100s of millions not invested, or care that Morgan Stanley's offices in E14 are emptier than hitherto?
So shouting "look there has been no disaster" is missing the point. We will all be poorer and we will be poorer for nothing.
And for those who say "but...but...they said immediately after the vote" - that again is operating on rolling news channel timings. In the real world the lag can be quite long.0 -
Yes, but ... is what I would say in response to your hypothesis.DavidL said:As I have said on here before I think the significance of Brexit is being massively overstated by both Leavers and Remainers. The effect on our economy will be highly marginal and contentious. My expectation is we will neither have a lion roaring with its new found freedom or people trying to escape the starving and desperate crowds in a coracle as was being suggested on here yesterday. It will feel like business as usual.
[snip other interesting stuff]
The direct effect of Brexit on the economy will likely be relatively small. It won't be "highly marginal and contentious" because we have already had an effect before leaving, but it won't probably be catastrophic. But only if we prioritise the economy over taking control, as I think we will do eventually. Brexit will be very disruptive, it will be costly in lots of ways, it will be a huge time sucker. The EU will impinge in our daily lives to a much greater extent than it did before we left. And we will have to do what the EU tells us without us having a say in the regulations we adopt. If we do all that we can have an arrangement that keeps important parts of what we have already.
Thing is, the only reason to vote Brexit is to take control, but to avoid serious repercussions we end up with the EU more in control than ever. Eventually we will have to accept the situation, but most people, whatever they voted, will think it's a nonsense.
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It looks like Universal Credit could be the exocet missile heading the way of the Tory party on October 18th,the way that the numbers are stacking up TMay and her Tory government are facing defeat unless they somehow realise that helping the Just About Managing doesn't mean starving them and their children.
Universal Credit has always been an unexploded bomb and it is about to go off.May could be gone next week.0 -
Mr. Roger, can't speak for others, but personally I don't think that made a huge difference. The deal being derided, the Obama intervention, and the dangers being so overplayed that genuine warnings of potential problems went ignored, were all bigger factors in the result going the way it did.
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What's happening with BSE/V.CJD?Essexit said:
I thought BSE's campaign was pretty unpleasant but I wouldn't go as far as grouping them with AIDS and Bird Flu.another_richard said:
I was thinking about all the 'disaster is certain' predictions during my life:Mortimer said:
Indeed.Alanbrooke said:
5 years out that's a mad call, there are so many other things which can change. Basing everything on the Brexit prism is myopic. It's simply the product of a mindset that cant imagine a different future.AlastairMeeks said:
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next election is likely to be dominated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.Alanbrooke said:
Or more likely by the time an election comes people will be worried about housing, cost of living, NHS and all the other things ordinary people worry about. See GE 2017AlastairMeeks said:
The second part will convince Brexit headbangers who believe simply on the basis of time for a change.Alanbrooke said:
"we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess,
we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"
cant see that working myself
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Some remainers are incandescent; but I remember people being incandescent about fuel prices in the late 90s, about BSE and foot and mouth. About Iraq, even. Not one of them influenced elections in any meaningful ways.
Several Remainers here suggest that Leavers need to own the decision. The reality is that we are. But we're also recognising that time didn't stop on 23rd June 2016. Accepting the result and its implementation are the necessary precursors to moving on. Remainers risk the TONY Benn syndrome of refighting the battles of the 70s in the 80s and 90s.
Nuclear war
Nuclear disaster eg Chernobyl
New ice age
Global warming
Various other ecological disasters - birds dying, bees dying, oceans dying
Oil running out
The Middle Eastern oil fields being set alight in 1991
AIDS, BSE, bird flu etc
The year 2000 computer problem
The gazillions of finanical derivatives in 2008
Project Fear's predictions of a Leave vote
I'm sure I've forgotten many more.
About 10-15 years ago there was talk that hundreds of thousands of people could potentially die from V.CJD in the next 2-3 decades... Now you never hear anything about it and I think the total number of victims remains exceedingly low (fewer than 200) ?0 -
Is there a Commons vote on 18th then?volcanopete said:It looks like Universal Credit could be the exocet missile heading the way of the Tory party on October 18th,the way that the numbers are stacking up TMay and her Tory government are facing defeat unless they somehow realise that helping the Just About Managing doesn't mean starving them and their children.
Universal Credit has always been an unexploded bomb and it is about to go off.May could be gone next week.0 -
John Redwood knows how to proceed. Reality just needs to be a bit more like the inside of his head.AlastairMeeks said:It's almost as if Leave supporters know that it's going horribly wrong and have no clue how to proceed from here. We're past panic and hysteria, and onto hunt for the guilty and punishment of the innocent.
0 -
Yes, it also seems to be disappointing an awful lot of people on the left and right.Sandpit said:
It does look (from a distance) that Macron has managed to achieve some sensible labour reforms without triggering the expected huge industrial and civil action.SouthamObserver said:
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.logical_song said:
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.Alanbrooke said:
5 years out that's a ant imagine a different future.AlastairMeeks said:
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next eBritain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.Alanbrooke said:
Or more likely by the time an election comes people wilabout. See GE 2017AlastairMeeks said:
The time for a change.Alanbrooke said:
"we'rone"AlastairMeeks said:
No, they'll do deranged cretins who got you into this mess".TGOHF said:
cant see that working myself
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ?
Them : well no, don't be stupid
Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo
Them: well no
Me : Are we less stable than Spain ?
Them: no have you see Catalonia
Me: Italy ?
Them: laughter
Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ?
Them: well France has always been a mess
Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak
Them: yeah suppose so
Something that plenty of French presidents and PMs have failed to do over the past few decades.
0 -
To be fair, Cameron may have got that right - but not because of Brexit. Maybe he made a few quid betting on President Trump?DecrepitJohnL said:
Very few forecast disaster? The American President said we'd go to the back of the queue, the Chancellor said we'd need an emergency budget to send small boys up chimneys, and the Prime Minister saw a third world war.TOPPING said:The trouble with the PB Brexiters is that in a 24-hour rolling news channel environment they fight strawmen. They say "look, what disaster?" and, point to the fact that the No.9 bus is still running and Arsene Wenger remains manager at the Emirates.
But very few people forecast a disaster if we voted to Leave. They, we, I said there would be a diminution in the wealth of the nation. For me, in the days of £10 packets of cigarettes, and 5p on the price of a ping, I don't think many people will notice. How would they be able to feel £4,300 worse off than otherwise in a few years? How will they measure the £100s of millions not invested, or care that Morgan Stanley's offices in E14 are emptier than hitherto?
So shouting "look there has been no disaster" is missing the point. We will all be poorer and we will be poorer for nothing.
And for those who say "but...but...they said immediately after the vote" - that again is operating on rolling news channel timings. In the real world the lag can be quite long.0 -
0
-
Macron has been canny in taking on the most indefensible practices and going on the attack over them. Labour unions can only really say, nice while they lasted. Bear in mind most people struggle in the private sector where there is no featherbedding.Sandpit said:It does look (from a distance) that Macron has managed to achieve some sensible labour reforms without triggering the expected huge industrial and civil action.
Something that plenty of French presidents and PMs have failed to do over the past few decades.
0 -
Davis seems to have won the PR war this week - focus is on Barnier looking frustrated by his own team's intransigence.williamglenn said:If we have passed an inflection point in the polling on Brexit, Leavers need to think about how they can ever hope to win back support. Spending money on preparing the baricades for No Deal while using a premium rate helpline for Universal Credit is not going to work.
We've held out a generous offer and it's been rebuffed by those mean Eurocrats.
0 -
Leamington voted Remain - a little island of common sense in a sea of absurdity ;-)Alanbrooke said:LOL
LOLAlastairMeeks said:
I'm entirely happy to withdraw the suggestion that the incredibly convenient anecdote that fits with no experience I have had in real life talking with the most vociferous Remain supporters - who as a group tend to be far more interested in the affairs of other nations than all bar the most committed Leave supporters - was created for the purpose. No doubt Warwickshire's hardcore Remain supporters are an unusual subset.tlg86 said:
Err, I'm not sure you should be making such allegations given the hissy fit you had last week.AlastairMeeks said:Leaving the fascinating and almost certainly fake anecdote to one side
Warwickshire is just a blissful place beyond your limited experience.
Southam lives in the best place in the UK - Leamington- according to a recent survey
But if you don't believe the anecdote then don't it wont have a huge impact on my life, I'm sure I'll survive
I went for a bike ride the other day around the local villages and through Stoneleigh. There's a bugger of a short hill climb just past the little river there that I was not expecting. Anyway, once I got to the top and regained my breath, I felt the vague warmth of the early autumn breeze on my face, looked around me and realised just how lucky I am. Leamington and its envisions really are a very fine part of the world. Moving there from Southam was about the best thing we ever did.
0 -
Members, and nobody.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, if it's impossible to leave the EU without disaster, are we members, or captives? And who signed away so much power without ever consulting the electorate?
We are participating members of a mutually beneficial club. Leaving the club results in a loss of benefits.
We will be worse off than we were as members.
Leaving shows we have power. We have always had power. We didn't sign it away, until now.
We are now giving away power, and influence, and prosperity, to satisfy Farage's Little Englanders.
It's tragic.0 -
ahem, UK in back of the queue disaster shocker. Not quite a disaster and, as we have seen, most recently with Bombardier, the US does indeed send countries to the back of the queue, trade-wise so I'll give that one as an accurate forecast, indeed worse than forecast.DecrepitJohnL said:
Very few forecast disaster? The American President said we'd go to the back of the queue, the Chancellor said we'd need an emergency budget to send small boys up chimneys, and the Prime Minister saw a third world war.TOPPING said:The trouble with the PB Brexiters is that in a 24-hour rolling news channel environment they fight strawmen. They say "look, what disaster?" and, point to the fact that the No.9 bus is still running and Arsene Wenger remains manager at the Emirates.
But very few people forecast a disaster if we voted to Leave. They, we, I said there would be a diminution in the wealth of the nation. For me, in the days of £10 packets of cigarettes, and 5p on the price of a ping, I don't think many people will notice. How would they be able to feel £4,300 worse off than otherwise in a few years? How will they measure the £100s of millions not invested, or care that Morgan Stanley's offices in E14 are emptier than hitherto?
So shouting "look there has been no disaster" is missing the point. We will all be poorer and we will be poorer for nothing.
And for those who say "but...but...they said immediately after the vote" - that again is operating on rolling news channel timings. In the real world the lag can be quite long.
Emergency budget? A leave vote took us into the unknown. Prudent of the chancellor to say this would be needed, especially if it had been needed.
Third world war? Just saying that the EU was a force for peace.
Kids up chimneys? They fit much more easily than fat lads so actually this was a positive.0 -
Or the unexpected fire which completely destabilises a redundant woollen mill in a prime site.Sandpit said:
Sounds rather like the old Glaswegian industrial units that ‘went on fire’ during the early ‘90s recession.MarqueeMark said:
Kids and matches, eh? Cuh.....Ishmael_Z said:
Sometimes on Devon farms these mountains inexplicably catch fire, and the farmer is beside himself with grief at the loss of his tyre collection.MarqueeMark said:Completely O/T, but does anybody here have any involvement with bright new ideas about what we might do with old tyre mountains?
You can make them into jumps for horses. You can shred Indian tyres to make flooring for arenas for horses, but not first world ones because they have metal in them.0 -
Mr. P, so we didn't sign away anything when EurAtom ceased to be an independent body and got swallowed up by the EU? Or when swathes of vetoes were thrown away, to be replaced by QMV?
I think that's a position open to dispute.
Mr. Topping, "Third world war? Just saying that the EU was a force for peace." Ahem. That's stretching the meaning of words to an extent whereby the vocabulary and the meaning bear little resemblance to one another.0 -
According to the latest surveys on ARD, 75% of Germans think that a Jamaica coalition will be formed, 61% find it good or very good for Merkel to have a fourth term, and 63% are satisfied with her work. Those are hardly figures for a politician in trouble!Alanbrooke said:
I normally do, FAZ and Die Welt, which is where I quote the Merkel in trouble storiesFeersumEnjineeya said:
Well, the main headlines in Bild are currently Trump's withdrawal from UNESCO and Harvey Weinstein. There seems to be very little about internal German politics, so it doesn't really support your contention that Germany is less stable than the UK at all.Alanbrooke said:
make your own mind upBenpointer said:
Are they worse than this?Alanbrooke said:
I take it you don't read german newspapers ?Benpointer said:
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!SouthamObserver said:
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.logical_song said:
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst place in the world laughing stock etc
Me: so youre saying we're a bigger laughing stock than Trunps USA ?
Them : well no, don't be stupid
Me: so youre saying we're more unstable than Germany which currently doesn't have a government and where Merkel is in the poo
Them: well no
Me : Are we less stable than Spain ?
Them: no have you see Catalonia
Me: Italy ?
Them: laughter
Me: France where the president is less popular than Hollande and where 2 in 5 electors vote neo fascist ?
Them: well France has always been a mess
Me: so really everywhere is in a bit of turmoil and where just in with the pak
Them: yeah suppose so
http://www.bild.de/
Perhaps you should consider reading a more upmarket paper. Die Zeit or the Frankfurter Allgemeine, perhaps?
BPs question was was there any German paper worse than the DMail
I sent him Bild
http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend-967.html0 -
I think they all migrated to PB and only ever discuss BrexitGIN1138 said:
What's happening with BSE/V.CJD?Essexit said:
I thought BSE's campaign was pretty unpleasant but I wouldn't go as far as grouping them with AIDS and Bird Flu.another_richard said:
I was thinking about all the 'disaster is certain' predictions during my life:Mortimer said:
Indeed.Alanbrooke said:
5 years out that's a mad call, there are so many other things which can change. Basing everything on the Brexit prism is myopic. It's simply the product of a mindset that cant imagine a different future.AlastairMeeks said:
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next election is likely to be dominated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.Alanbrooke said:
Or more likely by the time an election comes people will be worried about housing, cost of living, NHS and all the other things ordinary people worry about. See GE 2017AlastairMeeks said:
The second part will convince Brexit headbangers who believe simply on the basis of time for a change.Alanbrooke said:
"we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess,
we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"
cant see that working myself
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Some remainers are incandescent; but I
Nuclear war
Nuclear disaster eg Chernobyl
New ice age
Global warming
Various other ecological disasters - birds dying, bees dying, oceans dying
Oil running out
The Middle Eastern oil fields being set alight in 1991
AIDS, BSE, bird flu etc
The year 2000 computer problem
The gazillions of finanical derivatives in 2008
Project Fear's predictions of a Leave vote
I'm sure I've forgotten many more.
About 10-15 years ago there was talk that hundreds of thousands of people could potentially die from V.CJD in the next 2-3 decades... Now you never hear anything about it and I think the total number of victims remains exceedingly low (fewer than 200) ?0 -
Strictly speaking, the reference the Wikipedia article links to explains Switzerland is NOT an associated country. (It has legal implications).Sunil_Prasannan said:
My bad. Associated member state:FF43 said:
Switzerland isn't a member of Euratom. It has a number of co-operation agreements with it. Bit similar to "access to Single Market", eg USA versus EU MemberSunil_Prasannan said:Somebody tell Faisal Islam that Switzerland is a member of Euratom.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/07/18/no-such-thing-as-associate-membership-euratom/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Atomic_Energy_Community
Since 2014, Switzerland has participated in Euratom programmes as an associated state.[1]
As of 2016, the community had co-operation agreements of various scopes with eight countries: the United States, Japan, Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and South Africa.[10]0 -
When he said it on Question Time you could hear the intake of breath amongst the audience. Shortly afterwards the Leave campain brought out their one and only broadcast whose central theme was the 72 million and it's effects on the NHS and life as it would become in the UK.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Roger, can't speak for others, but personally I don't think that made a huge difference. The deal being derided, the Obama intervention, and the dangers being so overplayed that genuine warnings of potential problems went ignored, were all bigger factors in the result going the way it did.
I haven't any doubt that it was tested and that was the claim that resonated. Brexit's secret weapon. Their USP. The rest was preaching to the choir.0 -
What do you think "we signed away" when that happened?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, so we didn't sign away anything when EurAtom ceased to be an independent body and got swallowed up by the EU?
0 -
Alanbrooke said:
I think they all migrated to PB and only ever discuss BrexitGIN1138 said:
What's happening with BSE/V.CJD?Essexit said:
I thought BSE's campaign was pretty unpleasant but I wouldn't go as far as grouping them with AIDS and Bird Flu.another_richard said:
I was thinking about all the 'disaster is certain' predictions during my life:Mortimer said:
Indeed.Alanbrooke said:
5 years out that's a mad call, there are so many other things which can change. Basing everything on the Brexit prism is myopic. It's simply the product of a mindset that cant imagine a different future.AlastairMeeks said:
Which brings me right back to my original point. The next election is likely to be dominated by the question: "do you think things have got better since Britain voted to Leave?" The public are results merchants.Alanbrooke said:
Or more likely by the time an election comes people will be worried about housing, cost of living, NHS and all the other things ordinary people worry about. See GE 2017AlastairMeeks said:
The second part will convince Brexit headbangers who believe simply on the basis of time for a change.Alanbrooke said:
"we're not these deranged cretins who got you into this mess,
we're the whack job ideologues who'll get you in to an even bigger one"
cant see that working myself
Only political anoraks are fighting Brexit, nobody else cares much
Some remainers are incandescent; but I
Nuclear war
Nuclear disaster eg Chernobyl
New ice age
Global warming
Various other ecological disasters - birds dying, bees dying, oceans dying
Oil running out
The Middle Eastern oil fields being set alight in 1991
AIDS, BSE, bird flu etc
The year 2000 computer problem
The gazillions of finanical derivatives in 2008
Project Fear's predictions of a Leave vote
I'm sure I've forgotten many more.
About 10-15 years ago there was talk that hundreds of thousands of people could potentially die from V.CJD in the next 2-3 decades... Now you never hear anything about it and I think the total number of victims remains exceedingly low (fewer than 200) ?
0 -
It does. But if it's the one I think it is, he goes all round the houses to try to find a reason why A50(3) doesn't really say what it really says. It really does. It is the elephant in the room of all revocation arguments.Tissue_Price said:Good piece Alastair, but I'm afraid it conflicts with a 26 tweet thread from @davidallengreen.
Well.0 -
Although revoking Article 50 is hypothetical, I think a key factor is how confident the EU Council/Commission would be of the legal position. If they thought a decision to refuse the revocation would end up in court or arbitration they might allow the revocation to proceed by default on a least impact basis.0
-
What would be the point of triggering A50 only to revoke it?
#notgoingtohappen0 -
Only 89% of 2017 Tories would vote for the party now...
So that’s better than Labour (88% of 2017 Vote) and Lib Dem (65%)......
Meanwhile Labour is ahead among ABC1, but the Tories lead in C2DE....and 92% of those intending to vote Tory think May would be the best PM while among Labour voters Corbyn gets 79%.....
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/711zi84n7n/TimesResults_171005_Trackers_VI_W.pdf0 -
Seehofer is about to get a good kicking from his own partyFeersumEnjineeya said:
According to the latest surveys on ARD, 75% of Germans would support a Jamaica coalition, 61% find it good or very good for Merkel to have a fourth term, and 63% are satisfied with her work. Those are hardly figures for a politician in trouble!Alanbrooke said:
I normally do, FAZ and Die Welt, which is where I quote the Merkel in trouble storiesFeersumEnjineeya said:
Well, the main headlines in Bild are currently Trump's withdrawal from UNESCO and Harvey Weinstein. There seems to be very little about internal German politics, so it doesn't really support your contention that Germany is less stable than the UK at all.Alanbrooke said:
make your own mind upBenpointer said:
Are they worse than this?Alanbrooke said:
I take it you don't read german newspapers ?Benpointer said:
Indeed, and who in their right minds thinks Germany is currently less stable than Britain?!SouthamObserver said:
Point of order on Macron - his popularity ratings are improving; two union-called national days of action against his reforms have been damp squibs.Alanbrooke said:
What utter guff.logical_song said:
Brexit dwarfs everythinguble whammy.
It excites the political anoraks nobody else. And for remainers it get worse as the answer can only ever be Armageddon.
anecdote
it was a quiz night in my village hall on Saturday and I had two remainers on my team doing the gloom scenario, UK is worst turmoil and where just in with the pak
Them: yeah suppose so
http://www.bild.de/
Perhaps you should consider reading a more upmarket paper. Die Zeit or the Frankfurter Allgemeine, perhaps?
BPs question was was there any German paper worse than the DMail
I sent him Bild
http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend-967.html
Jamaica is the only game in town and greens and FDP are at opposite ends of the political spectrum - Merkel has shakier partners than May and the DUP
Nobody in the CDU is celebrating an electoral victory
The AfD have one seventh of the vote
East Germany dislikes Merkel and wont vote for her
Diesel scandal
if you think all is sweetness and light in Germany good luck
Merkel is Theresa May with a 6 month delay0 -
Just out of curiosity, what kinds of independent initiatives do you think a EurAtom outside the EU could have come up with? Surely regulating radioactive materials isn't a field where there is a huge number of creative options?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, so we didn't sign away anything when EurAtom ceased to be an independent body and got swallowed up by the EU? Or when swathes of vetoes were thrown away, to be replaced by QMV?
I think that's a position open to dispute.
Mr. Topping, "Third world war? Just saying that the EU was a force for peace." Ahem. That's stretching the meaning of words to an extent whereby the vocabulary and the meaning bear little resemblance to one another.0 -
Can we _really_ bother to go back to see what was said? I think grown-ups are aware of what was meant.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, so we didn't sign away anything when EurAtom ceased to be an independent body and got swallowed up by the EU? Or when swathes of vetoes were thrown away, to be replaced by QMV?
I think that's a position open to dispute.
Mr. Topping, "Third world war? Just saying that the EU was a force for peace." Ahem. That's stretching the meaning of words to an extent whereby the vocabulary and the meaning bear little resemblance to one another.0 -
They would certainly have scope to um and ah about it and make it clear that we need to mean it.FF43 said:Although revoking Article 50 is hypothetical, I think a key factor is how confident the EU Council/Commission would be of the legal position. If they thought a decision to refuse the revocation would end up in court or arbitration they might allow the revocation to proceed by default on a least impact basis.
0 -
A couple of very astute tweets from Prof Chalmers on the relative negotiating strengths in terms of domestic political impact. EU partners need the deal less, not just because of the relatively smaller economic impact. They will see a much smaller political impact if the deal goes sour
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918575538712842242
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918576451334692869
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918576676119998466
0 -
In much the same way that he went round the houses to explain why the Government would never invoke Article 50david_herdson said:
It does. But if it's the one I think it is, he goes all round the houses to try to find a reason why A50(3) doesn't really say what it really says. It really does. It is the elephant in the room of all revocation arguments.Tissue_Price said:Good piece Alastair, but I'm afraid it conflicts with a 26 tweet thread from @davidallengreen.
Well. 0 -
Sounds like wishful thinking from someone who wishes to Remain to me...FF43 said:A couple of very astute tweets from Prof Chalmers on the relative negotiating strengths in terms of domestic political impact. EU partners need the deal less, not just because of the relatively smaller economic impact. They will see a much smaller political impact if the deal goes sour
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918575538712842242
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918576451334692869
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/9185766761199984660 -
A further point is that the ‘pour encourager les autres’ motivation is stronger for the EU27 than for the Commission. They don’t want their own electorates getting ideas.FF43 said:A couple of very astute tweets from Prof Chalmers on the relative negotiating strengths in terms of domestic political impact. EU partners need the deal less, not just because of the relatively smaller economic impact. They will see a much smaller political impact if the deal goes sour
0 -
Why?GIN1138 said:
Sounds like wishful thinking from someone who wishes to Remain to me...FF43 said:A couple of very astute tweets from Prof Chalmers on the relative negotiating strengths in terms of domestic political impact. EU partners need the deal less, not just because of the relatively smaller economic impact. They will see a much smaller political impact if the deal goes sour
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918575538712842242
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918576451334692869
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/9185766761199984660 -
Although revocation is technically a legal step the whole Brexit process is essentially a political one and if the political will on both side was strong enough then revocation would happen. If, for instance, the UK had another general election and a government was elected on a manifesto which included revocation and the key players in the EU council of ministers were in agreement then a way would be found to revoke.FF43 said:Although revoking Article 50 is hypothetical, I think a key factor is how confident the EU Council/Commission would be of the legal position. If they thought a decision to refuse the revocation would end up in court or arbitration they might allow the revocation to proceed by default on a least impact basis.
At the moment this sequence of events seems very unlikely but the theoretical possibility exists.0 -
Did you see last night's thread? Very, very bitter.TGOHF said:
More deluded wishful thinking from remainers - nothing more.GIN1138 said:What would be the point of triggering A50 only to revoke it?
#notgoingtohappen
And @tyson revealed he has even started ranting and raving at known LEAVERS in pubs when he sees them trying to have a quiet evening drink...
0 -
Nobody can say how a German car-maker who gets sacked in 2021 will react/who they will blame for losing their job.FF43 said:
Why?GIN1138 said:
Sounds like wishful thinking from someone who wishes to Remain to me...FF43 said:A couple of very astute tweets from Prof Chalmers on the relative negotiating strengths in terms of domestic political impact. EU partners need the deal less, not just because of the relatively smaller economic impact. They will see a much smaller political impact if the deal goes sour
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918575538712842242
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918576451334692869
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918576676119998466
It's ridiculous supposition/wishful thinking.0 -
Only Prime Minister Gove, Johnson, or Davis could revoke Article 50.0
-
I didn't say all is sweetness and light in Germany. You claimed that it is less stable than the UK, which is patent nonsense. Merkel remains a popular leader (certainly compared to May) and most are confident that she'll be able to form a coalition with the FDP and Greens. Coalition governments are, of course, the norm in Germany and, while a coalition including both the FDP and Greens will be interesting, both parties have long experience as junior coalition partners and have pragmatists who will be keen to make it work.Alanbrooke said:
Seehofer is about to get a good kicking from his own partyFeersumEnjineeya said:
According to the latest surveys on ARD, 75% of Germans would support a Jamaica coalition, 61% find it good or very good for Merkel to have a fourth term, and 63% are satisfied with her work. Those are hardly figures for a politician in trouble!Alanbrooke said:
I normally do, FAZ and Die Welt, which is where I quote the Merkel in trouble storiesFeersumEnjineeya said:
Well, the main headlines in Bild are currently Trump's withdrawal from UNESCO and Harvey Weinstein. There seems to be very little about internal German politics, so it doesn't really support your contention that Germany is less stable than the UK at all.
Perhaps you should consider reading a more upmarket paper. Die Zeit or the Frankfurter Allgemeine, perhaps?
BPs question was was there any German paper worse than the DMail
I sent him Bild
http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend-967.html
Jamaica is the only game in town and greens and FDP are at opposite ends of the political spectrum - Merkel has shakier partners than May and the DUP
Nobody in the CDU is celebrating an electoral victory
The AfD have one seventh of the vote
East Germany dislikes Merkel and wont vote for her
Diesel scandal
if you think all is sweetness and light in Germany good luck
Merkel is Theresa May with a 6 month delay0 -
Why would they want to?TheScreamingEagles said:Only Prime Minister Gove, Johnson, or Davis could revoke Article 50.
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Yep - it's a point I have made a few times on here. If the UK government had invested a little time and effort in reaching out to voters in the EU27 member states, instead of pandering to the anti-EU rhetoric of the right wing English press, the UK might have a bit more leverage. As it is - and as AlanBrooke correctly observes - Brexit is a second-tier issue across Europe. Very few people are watching, very few people care. There is no link to Brexit and their futures, as far as they can see. That suits EU27 governments perfectly. If (when) things go wrong, it will just be the British playing games and wanting their cake while eating it, yet again - the same old story.FF43 said:A couple of very astute tweets from Prof Chalmers on the relative negotiating strengths in terms of domestic political impact. EU partners need the deal less, not just because of the relatively smaller economic impact. They will see a much smaller political impact if the deal goes sour
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918575538712842242
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918576451334692869
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918576676119998466
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If Brexit is likely lead to a monumental shit show and an electoral wipeout for the Tories.GIN1138 said:
Why would they want to?TheScreamingEagles said:Only Prime Minister Gove, Johnson, or Davis could revoke Article 50.
As recent events have shown once again, Boris puts his personal ambitions above all else.0 -
What few commentators, and no PB Brexiters have considered is what our attitude would be if any other EU country decided to leave. We would think...good luck to them...looking forward to being kept in touch....hope we can do some kind of deal...they want WHAT???? NO WAY...How dare they try to dictate terms to us, they are the ones leaving...etc..etcSouthamObserver said:
Yep - it's a point I have made a few times on here. If the UK government had invested a little time and effort in reaching out to voter sin the EU27 member states, the UK might have a bit more leverage. As it is - as AlanBrooke correctly observes - Brexit is a second-tier issue across Europe. Very few people are watching, very few people care. There is no link to Brexit and their futures, as far as they can see. That suits EU27 governments perfectly. If (when) things go wrong, it will just be the British playing games and wanting their cake and eating, yet again - the same old story.FF43 said:A couple of very astute tweets from Prof Chalmers on the relative negotiating strengths in terms of domestic political impact. EU partners need the deal less, not just because of the relatively smaller economic impact. They will see a much smaller political impact if the deal goes sour
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918575538712842242
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/918576451334692869
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/9185766761199984660 -
I rarely disagree with you, Nick, but I do here. The EU is substantially a legal construct, which is both its strength and weakness. Its modus operandi is to agree to a process and attempt subsume the politics to that process. It's how it can get stuff done. We're seeing it with the Article 50 talks where the EU side is accused, accurately, of sticking to to a process and being inflexible. But what people don't sufficiently acknowledge in my view is how else would we get an agreement with a group of 27 individual states? It's not a peer-to-peer negotiation; it's consortium to third party.anothernick said:
Although revocation is technically a legal step the whole Brexit process is essentially a political one and if the political will on both side was strong enough then revocation would happen. If, for instance, the UK had another general election and a government was elected on a manifesto which included revocation and the key players in the EU council of ministers were in agreement then a way would be found to revoke.FF43 said:Although revoking Article 50 is hypothetical, I think a key factor is how confident the EU Council/Commission would be of the legal position. If they thought a decision to refuse the revocation would end up in court or arbitration they might allow the revocation to proceed by default on a least impact basis.
At the moment this sequence of events seems very unlikely but the theoretical possibility exists.
The problem with the legal first approach is that no-one has a sense of ownership. It alienates, actually.0 -
After reading Michel Barnier's comments last night, I was surprised at just how openly obstructive the EU was being. He explicitly said "no concession" on Ireland, money or, notably, citizens rights, which means the ECJ.
So the EU is currently refusing to talk about half the issues until we have resolved these ones, and is refusing to make any concessions on them. This is not an entity negotiating in good faith.0 -
I don't think it's patent nonsense at allFeersumEnjineeya said:
I didn't say all is sweetness and light in Germany. You claimed that it is less stable than the UK, which is patent nonsense. Merkel remains a popular leader (certainly compared to May) and most are confident that she'll be able to form a coalition with the FDP and Greens. Coalition governments are, of course, the norm in Germany and, while a coalition including both the FDP and Greens will be interesting, both parties have long experience as junior coalition partners and have pragmatists who will be keen to make it work.Alanbrooke said:
Seehofer is about to get a good kicking from his own partyFeersumEnjineeya said:
According to the latest surveys on ARD, 75% of Germans would support a Jamaica coalition, 61% find it good or very good for Merkel to have a fourth term, and 63% are satisfied with her work. Those are hardly figures for a politician in trouble!Alanbrooke said:
I normally do, FAZ and Die Welt, which is the DMailFeersumEnjineeya said:
Well, the main headlines in Bild are currently Trump's withdrawal from UNESCO and Harvey Weinstein. There seems to be very little about internal German politics, so it doesn't really support your contention that Germany is less stable than the UK at all.
Perhaps you should consider reading a more upmarket paper. Die Zeit or the Frankfurter Allgemeine, perhaps?
I sent him Bild
http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend-967.html
Jamaica is the only game
if you think all is sweetness and light in Germany good luck
Merkel is Theresa May with a 6 month delay
it's a month on and Germany has no government. It wont have for about another month and then it will be a sticking plaster job which will be in office if not power
Merkel's position like Mays is weaker than when she went to the electorate, she is on the slide and members of her own party are calling for her head,
She has no successor as yet
That's much like the UK atm0 -
Boris by far the most likely. Leavers wishing him as PM may regret it.TheScreamingEagles said:Only Prime Minister Gove, Johnson, or Davis could revoke Article 50.
(Remember how Boris loves Churchill - you can easily imagine him thinking abandoning Brexit is somehow a parallel to Churchill's abandoning of the Conservative party)0 -
Mr. Recidivist, if Euratom were separate then we wouldn't be leaving it necessarily due to leaving the EU.
The EU is interested in empire-building but only for its own sake. It is the institutional format of Gordon Brown.0 -
Boris aspires to be Churchill.TheScreamingEagles said:
If Brexit is likely lead to a monumental shit show and an electoral wipeout for the Tories.GIN1138 said:
Why would they want to?TheScreamingEagles said:Only Prime Minister Gove, Johnson, or Davis could revoke Article 50.
As recent events have shown once again, Boris puts his personal ambitions above all else.
This is what Lloyd-George said of Churchill:
""You will one day discover that the state of mind revealed in (your) letter is the reason why you do not win trust even where you command admiration. In every line of it, national interests are completely overshadowed by your personal concern.""0 -
Euratom merged with the EEC and ECSC before we joined.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Recidivist, if Euratom were separate then we wouldn't be leaving it necessarily due to leaving the EU.
The EU is interested in empire-building but only for its own sake. It is the institutional format of Gordon Brown.0 -
Effectively a ransom demand - "give us your money or else!"Elliot said:After reading Michel Barnier's comments last night, I was surprised at just how openly obstructive the EU was being. He explicitly said "no concession" on Ireland, money or, notably, citizens rights, which means the ECJ.
So the EU is currently refusing to talk about half the issues until we have resolved these ones, and is refusing to make any concessions on them. This is not an entity negotiating in good faith.0 -
Disagree, and agree with Nick (!).FF43 said:
I rarely disagree with you, Nick, but I do here. The EU is substantially a legal construct, which is both its strength and weakness. Its modus operandi is to agree to a process and attempt subsume the politics to that process. It's how it can get stuff done. We're seeing it with the Article 50 talks where the EU side is accused, accurately, of sticking to to a process and being inflexible. But what people don't sufficiently acknowledge in my view is how else would we get an agreement with a group of 27 individual states? It's not a peer-to-peer negotiation; it's consortium to third party.anothernick said:
Although revocation is technically a legal step the whole Brexit process is essentially a political one and if the political will on both side was strong enough then revocation would happen. If, for instance, the UK had another general election and a government was elected on a manifesto which included revocation and the key players in the EU council of ministers were in agreement then a way would be found to revoke.FF43 said:Although revoking Article 50 is hypothetical, I think a key factor is how confident the EU Council/Commission would be of the legal position. If they thought a decision to refuse the revocation would end up in court or arbitration they might allow the revocation to proceed by default on a least impact basis.
At the moment this sequence of events seems very unlikely but the theoretical possibility exists.
The problem with the legal first approach is that no-one has a sense of ownership. It alienates, actually.
Look at Dave's Deal - it was criticised because people thought it would be struck down by the ECJ. The response was hold on...it's just been agreed by the EU27 heads of government. And at the end of the day, it is the political will that informs the court's decisions. Just like here - parliament passes a law and the courts implement it. If you are saying there has to be a formal law-making process before the ECJ can interpret that, then that is another issue..0 -
It's confirmation that LEAVE was the correct choice - Who wants to be in a "Union" with "friends" and "partners" who intimidate, bully and blackmail?Elliot said:After reading Michel Barnier's comments last night, I was surprised at just how openly obstructive the EU was being. He explicitly said "no concession" on Ireland, money or, notably, citizens rights, which means the ECJ.
So the EU is currently refusing to talk about half the issues until we have resolved these ones, and is refusing to make any concessions on them. This is not an entity negotiating in good faith.0 -
If they make it clear up front that's how they are going to negotiate and explain the process in detail and our side agrees to negotiate on those terms, is that really bad faith?Elliot said:After reading Michel Barnier's comments last night, I was surprised at just how openly obstructive the EU was being. He explicitly said "no concession" on Ireland, money or, notably, citizens rights, which means the ECJ.
So the EU is currently refusing to talk about half the issues until we have resolved these ones, and is refusing to make any concessions on them. This is not an entity negotiating in good faith.0 -
For something comprising so few words, Article 50 is remarkably puzzling. The more you look at it, the more holes in it you see.
For example: "[The agreement] shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament."
What happens if the European Parliament doesn't give its consent?0 -
There was a timeTheScreamingEagles said:Only Prime Minister Gove, Johnson, or Davis could revoke Article 50.
When all on my mind was Gove
Now I find that most of the time
Gove's not enough in itself0 -
Stop bringing facts into the debate.williamglenn said:
Euratom merged with the EEC and ECSC before we joined.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Recidivist, if Euratom were separate then we wouldn't be leaving it necessarily due to leaving the EU.
The EU is interested in empire-building but only for its own sake. It is the institutional format of Gordon Brown.0 -
Everyone needs to calm down.
The German car and Italian wine lobbies will be on the phone any day now and we'll get whatever deal we ask for from Barnier.
Keep the faith, and top up the Kool-Aid while you're at it.0 -
I wonder if the next census will have "EU hostage" as one of the choices for "Religion"GIN1138 said:
Did you see last night's thread? Very, very bitter.TGOHF said:
More deluded wishful thinking from remainers - nothing more.GIN1138 said:What would be the point of triggering A50 only to revoke it?
#notgoingtohappen
And @tyson revealed he has even started ranting and raving at known LEAVERS in pubs when he sees them trying to have a quiet evening drink...0 -
Yes, of course, since the Treaty doesn't provide for them to do that. On the contrary, it explicitly says they should take account of the future relationship.FF43 said:
If they make it clear up front that's how they are going to negotiate and explain the process in detail and our side agrees to negotiate on those terms, is that really bad faith?Elliot said:After reading Michel Barnier's comments last night, I was surprised at just how openly obstructive the EU was being. He explicitly said "no concession" on Ireland, money or, notably, citizens rights, which means the ECJ.
So the EU is currently refusing to talk about half the issues until we have resolved these ones, and is refusing to make any concessions on them. This is not an entity negotiating in good faith.0 -
Some free money for those with the inclination and accounts:
https://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/world-series/winner
Back all the teams each-way - I'd recommend 2 at Ladbrokes & 2 at Coral.
The win book comes to 108.5% but the place book only 169.8%.
If you apportion stakes properly (c. 10/10/7/7) you'll come out ahead.0 -
If they are pretending to negotiate but won't make any concessions or compromises or talk about other issues, yes. They have made a clearly impossible demand on the EU court having special jurisdiction outside the EU. It has become apparent they do not want a deal.FF43 said:
If they make it clear up front that's how they are going to negotiate and explain the process in detail and our side agrees to negotiate on those terms, is that really bad faith?Elliot said:After reading Michel Barnier's comments last night, I was surprised at just how openly obstructive the EU was being. He explicitly said "no concession" on Ireland, money or, notably, citizens rights, which means the ECJ.
So the EU is currently refusing to talk about half the issues until we have resolved these ones, and is refusing to make any concessions on them. This is not an entity negotiating in good faith.0 -
It's an entity negotiating from what it considers to be a strong negotiating position. It doesn't feel that it has to make concessions or yet talk about things it doesn't want to. That's not bad faith, simply a belief that it holds the cards.Elliot said:After reading Michel Barnier's comments last night, I was surprised at just how openly obstructive the EU was being. He explicitly said "no concession" on Ireland, money or, notably, citizens rights, which means the ECJ.
So the EU is currently refusing to talk about half the issues until we have resolved these ones, and is refusing to make any concessions on them. This is not an entity negotiating in good faith.0
