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HenryGManson asks Does the government care that household debt is soaring?
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With the recession a distant memory, GDP up, unemployment down and the budget deficit slowly but surely being whittled down, Labour have lost the economic argument. - Let’s create another meme instead?
Sad news - May I express my sincerest condolences to Mike Smithson and family for their loss.
I am sure that ALP would agree that Osbornes management of the national finances is looking kasterful, with no double dip recession and reasonably strong growth returned despite the Euro problems of the last few years. Balls has nothing to say and nothing to offer.
The coalition plans to keep the burden of taxation on the working poor low; and to keep low interest rates for the forseable future do seem to be the solution to the problems in the article.
There have been few pay rises for most of us in the last five years, and the best chance of these in the near future is if there is a relative shortage of semi skilled labour, which means controlling immigration.
There really is little alternative to coalition economic and immigration policy.
1. Debt in absolute levels is not important, it is debt relative to GDP that matters.
2. Household debt is not the same as government debt.
3. On World Bank numbers*, UK private sector (household plus corporate) debt as a percentage of GDP has fallen from 213% in 2009 to 178% today - that's one of the most impressive develveragings in the world, with only Ireland having done more to reduce debt.
* http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS?order=wbapi_data_value_2012+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc
I'm sorry to hear about your brother.
I imagine it's not John the well known producer?
1997: 116
2010: 202
But then I feel bad because, given I think it'll be a disaster for Scotland and they'll have to adopt roughly the same spending envelope as we have now, effectively I'm wishing ill on Scotland (unless, of course, I am hopelessly wrong on the economics!).
It's not just the public sector that Labour leaves in debt.
Osborne had to borrow more in his first month than Labour did in its first seven years.
I'm very sorry to hear of the death of your brother and uncle. Times like these put into sharp context the everyday moans and groans we have.
If PBers are fortunate enough to have a loving family give them an extra hug, or a phone call and tell them you love them and then spare an extra thought for the Smithson family today.
RIP.
The figures are a mixture of individual and corporate debt, and I am sure these vary greatly from country to country. Companies with cashpiles, balancing individuals with personal debt is not really a sign of economic health.
As most individuals main debt is mortgage, it does show that falling house prices would provoke a lot of negative equity. Keeping house prices stable while maintaining low interest rates is going to be a major challenge.
Nationally house prices are stable, even if rising in London. I do wonder whether an economic policy right for most of the UK is too loose for London.
Just to be clear, Sturgeon swayed me by being rude, arrogant and blustering. She didn't exactly convert me to the righteousness of the Nat cause (although I still absolutely think it's up to Scotland to decide Yes or No).
Although it is very tough for lots of people the economy is recovering so it is about translating that from the national picture to households which is bound to take some time.
who the f*ck thought making Alan Johnson shadow chancellor was a good idea?
Who the f*ck thought making Andy Burnham shadow health minister was a good idea?
And finally: who the f*ck thought making Ed Miliband Labour leader was a good idea? Not the members, that's for sure.
I think I win this one. ;-)
It is worth remembering that Labour left this country with the highest combined debt (public +private) in the world as a proportion of GDP. When Brown was claiming that we were the best prepared for the downturn he was, as usual, 100% wrong. We were the worst positioned of any major country.
This is why Osborne has put so much emphasis on exports as a source of growth and why his recovery plans were so badly hit by the collapse of demand in the EZ. To get back to anything like a stable position this country needs not only to eliminate the deficit and start repaying public sector debt, it also needs to control consumption for a very, very long time until real wages make the current debt burden more tolerable.
So the decade of madness under Labour engenders the need for decades of reduced consumption, debt repayment and spending less than we earn rather than more. It makes government difficult and getting re-elected even more so.
The problem is that rock bottom interest rates, plus increasing household debt, at a time when incomes are falling relative to inflation mean major trouble further down the line. Interest rates will not stay as they are forever.
After all, Woolas and Johnson were hardly the most inspired political appointments, were they? (And I actually quite like Johnson).
But as you're reduced to repeatedly commenting on Cameron's weight, I think you've pretty comprehensively lost the political argument.
Labour: the real nasty party.
Who the f*ck thought giving Phil Woolas the immigration brief was a good idea?
who the f*ck thought making Alan Johnson shadow chancellor was a good idea?
Who the f*ck thought making Andy Burnham shadow health minister was a good idea?
And finally: who the f*ck thought making Ed Miliband Labour leader was a good idea? Not the members, that's for sure.
I think I win this one. ;-)
Was it the same person who thought freezing energy prices, stopping pay day loan excesses, stopping the race to war in Syria would be a good idea?
I am sure that was the coalition wasn't it?
It is equally depressing that Scottish Labour is in such a mess with a frightening lack of quality, particularly in the Scottish Parliament. Darling is playing his part but where are the shadow cabinet members from Scotland whose jobs are on the line? I find their apparent indifference confusing, not least because Scotland is so critical to their UK prospects.
I honestly think that, Darling apart, the best response has been from Davidson and, occasionally, Goldie. But it is quite unrealistic to suggest that tories can make the running in Scotland. Labour really need to get their act together if the Union is to be saved and that does not mean employing Margaret Curren.
You do know the policy will be next weeks U turn dont you
House prices are too high overall, and ideally should remain basically flat or small rises until they are more affordable for the average person.
There are benefits from rising prices in terms of confidence, but these are disproportionately shared.
And this is from someone who profoundly disagrees with tim's views, motives, attitude, misogyny and hostility to others
And we're supposed to think they've learnt the lessons of Pathfinder et al? If they get into power again, they will focus spending on education and health, spending massive amounts without getting good enough results.
Education failing. NHS cover-ups. PFI's everywhere. Debt hidden off the books.
That's Labour's record of shame.
But a big drop in house prices would cause so much carnage (with the banks' balance sheets, many people being repossessed etc.) that the government has no choice but to stop prices falling back to the long-term trend ratio with earnings. Hence stupidly low interest rates, Help to Buy, pressure (so I've heard; is this confirmed?) on lenders not to repossess people, and so on. Grrrr. (Declaration of interest - I'd quite like to be able to buy a house at some point in the next few years, but can't remotely afford to at the moment.)
But to save my time, here's a fairly basic description:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiHpsg6wksc
It surprises me that you think such knowledge is in some way an insult.
http://www.cityam.com/article/1385602207/britain-s-two-nations-are-continuing-grow-ever-further-apart
His basic theme is that we have the same sort of problems as the Euro zone in that one area (London) could do with a different level of sterling and different policies to everyone else. He has a London bias but he's pretty convincing on this one.
Arguably the long-term answer to this is either to drive decentralisation more energetically (e.g. move Government, Ministries and Parliament to Manchester) or drive the ability to commute to London (hello HS2). In thr short term, the solution is not obvious (to me anyway).
This also looks at the issue, though less rich in data than Heath's article:
http://www.policy-network.net/pno_detail.aspx?id=4536&title=The+UK+needs+to+lift+its+second+tier+cities
1) Labour did far worse wrt household debt whilst in power.
2) No party is willing to look at the fundamental causes of the housing problems.
3) Where were Labour's concerns about growing household debt whilst they were in power? Perhaps if they had been, the worst of the crash might have been avoided.
Tell me what happened to the savings ratio between 1997 and 2010?
THE Governor of the Bank of England said yesterday that he would welcome the opportunity to enter “basic discussions” with the Scottish Government on its plan to create a sterling currency union if Scotland votes for independence.'
http://tinyurl.com/p57oyh5
However, this morning I have just had a quite surreal chat with someone calling themselves "Ronald" at Hills' chat. The main problem was that "Ronald" was clearly not remotely competent in the English language: the entire "copy and paste" screeds were just riddled with ungrammatical formulations, rendering them to gobbledegook.
Have Hills moved their customer service department to a country that doesn't have English as the first language?
The second problem was that "Ronald" clearly doesn't know how to refer a straightforward price request to the appropriate trader. However, a simple "no" would have sufficed, instead of 200 words of nonsense which appear to be his way of saying "no".
(And this is being written by someone who works from home, for an international company based near London, who occasionally travels on the train off peak at £80 per day).
Edit : before JJ gets flustered. I mean HS2 in the sense of a daily commute. How much would that cost? Monday-Friday doesn't help much, because commuters would end up staying in London B&B
IIRC household debt increased by £120bn in 2007 alone.
And what will Labour's economic policy be based upon in a government of the Eds ?
To get house prices rising and households borrowing more.
The Labour viewpoint was best summarised here by their mouthpiece 'snowflake' - "debt is wealth".
We have the conflict between it being good for the country as a whole but the areas where it is to take place possibly having more to lose than gain from it.
Surely the answer is for local areas to keep a much larger proportion of the wealth it brings so encouraging them to support rather than oppose it.
Or can the government think of nothing else than giving all the wealth to big business and then taxing them ?
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/29/netherlands-loses-aaa-rating-eurozone-unemployment-live
Londoners work harder and pay more taxes for a lower quality of life than the rest of us.
Each to their own of course.
Demonstrators storm compound in latest bid to force out government of Yingluck Shinawatra":
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/29/thai-protesters-bangkok-army-compound
People do commute daily from Nottingham to Derby for work, both by rail and car. Twenty years ago, one of my brother's friends drove daily from near Burton to South London.
My immediate ex-neighbour commuted from here in Cambridge to Haywards Heath three times a week, driving down and back each day. A friend commutes from Southampton to the wrong side of Oxford to work at making things go Vrooommmmm!
Not my idea of a life.
So let's do a comparison.
A Derby to London rail annual ticket costs £7-9,000.
According to the AA, the drive takes 2 hours 34 minutes, and would cost £20 in fuel one way, or £40 two way. If you make the journey 200 times a year, then it would cost £8,000 and take 1,000 hours of your life.
What market can we shut next after personal loans ?
How about a cap on weekly supermarket shop amount ??
It can help, but the impact, which combined with national pay scales, is that the rationale decision for the most talented individuals in those areas is to work for the state. As a result, the private sector becomes attenuated.
Johan Lamont MSP, Leader of the Scottish Labour Party: occasional attendee, 3/10
Anas Sarwar MP, Deputy Leader of the Scottish Labour Party: frequent attendee, 1/10
Alistair Darling MP, David Cameron's spokesman: frequent attendee, 7/10
Gordon Brown MP, leader of the huffy "United with Labour" break-away outfit: nearly invisible, 3/10
Jim Murphy MP, shadow cabinet: nearly invisible, 4/10
Wee Dougie Alexander MP, shadow cabinet: nearly invisible, 6/10
Ian Davidson MP, bampot: frequent attendee, 1/10
Wullie Rennie MSP, one-man-band: frequent attendee, 2/10
Ruth Davidson, one-woman-band: infrequent attendee: 6/10
Charlie Kennedy MP: the prince over the water: 100% absent, 10/10 (when he eventually turns up)
Malcolm Bruce, former SLD leader: 100% absent, 2/10 (if he ever turns up, which he won't)
Menzies Campbell, former sprint champion: nearly invisible, 2/10
Margaret Curran MP, who is she?: nearly invisible, 1/10
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/movinghouse/3324019/The-super-commuter.html
"Perhaps even more surprising is that there is a goodly band of commuters-including highly paid bankers and senior managers - coming into London from Lichfield, in the rolling vales of south Staffordshire. Local MP Michael Fabricant has recently established a Lichfield Commuters Club. He explains why so many are willing to make the gruelling two-hour-plus journey to London every day: "Not only is Lichfield an enchantingly beautiful city but the schools here are outstanding and you are just minutes away from the glories of Cannock Chase."
Which is more than you did.
I'll leave it to others to decide which websites you should visit instead of PB ...
Much as a Year Zero approach to 2010 might be amenable to Labour, I doubt the public will forget their period in office and their legacy to the country quite so quickly.
(The fact that I initially forgot to mention him is indicative of his importance and impact.)
(He thinks he is, but his grasp on reality was always weak, even at the best of times. That fact in itself is a problem for SLab, among many problems.)
Compare this...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
...with this:
http://web.archive.org/web/20121119220034/http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buyingsellingandmoving/10478710/Which-London-tribe-do-you-belong-to.html
If No wins, that's ok, because the general thought is that the union is overall a pretty good thing for the country as a whole
If Yes wins, then the overall nature of the rUK will be more to the right that it was under the UK as a whole.. labour become much much more weakened. That's just a fact.
Didn't say whether they were taking part in it or what. No-one was talking about it over lunch.
There's a journalist/writer who's highly talented and quite likeable but deeply flawed. He's a druggie and a drunk and near bankrupt, a generally underachieving failure. Lets call him Tom.
He begins researching a story and encounters a mysterious bloke who drops dark hints about a big conspiracy - it could involve genetics or religion or some such.
So Tom researches more and finds enough material to write some thrillers to save him from his financial problems.
But Tom also spends time at a blog where the community includes highly intelligent people from all over the world and who are experts in numerous fields.
As Tom likes to talk about both his work and himself this blogging community give him help with research and plotlines and because their knowledge and experience is so wideranging (far more than any single individual or organisation could provide) they notice the BIGGER CONSPIRACY behind the big conspiracy.
This leads to action scenes involving an exotic/erotic Thai hitwoman called Jam and lions. Lots of lions.
So there you have it the first proper internet thriller.
A bit post modern perhaps but I can't think of anything which involved psychotic women living in lighthouses.
It is simple to see why when you break down GDP into its various components. An economy can only grow if there is a net positive contribution from the interaction between
1. The government
2. Consumers
3. Investments by Business
4. foreigners via exports
Austerity rules out number 1, and as Wednesday's updated release for Q3 growth showed numbers 3 and 4 are currently hamstrung because of a distinct lack of confidence and the fact all out partners are indulging in the same bombed out austerity ideology as we are.
So the burden of increasing output falls on number 2, who, in the absence of number 3 and 4 will find they have no real wage increases to play with so they have to borrow to fund their spending.
This is what we're seeing right now. It was what many of us warned would happen if we saw any growth without rebalancing. Osborne has predictably failed to alter the make-up of the bombed out British economy because of his adherence to fantasy la-la ideology, hence why private debt is growing, when it should be falling.
It is a classic among politician's haircuts. A signature, just like Maggie's odd design.
Any other classic politics haircuts we can think of? Michael Foot?
What 'rebalancing' did you propose, exactly?
I don't recall it being more private sector and less public sector - in fact the reverse.....
We can buy off the first lot, and arrest the second...
Don't know about hotels, since I'm staying with family.
'Officially, Cameron’s Government is making no contingency plans for Scotland’s secession. But unofficially, the mood is bleak. Some of the Prime Minister’s chief strategists now argue that the battle is lost and that a Yes vote is not only possible but probable.'
http://tinyurl.com/osbvt5k
"I have a plot"
Very good!