politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Rudd moves up in the next CON leader betting but Corbyn

TOPPING said:

Hmm super mediocre.

He doesn't really seem to believe in it if there's anything he did seem to believe was the transparent bullshit of saying how much better we would be outside the EU.

Apparently he thinks it's not bad in the EU either:

You see it in Estonia, tech hub with a high degree of social protection – where they have a flat tax of 20 per cent.

In Romania they have a flat tax of 16 per cent and free health and education AND higher education.

In Hungary they have a tax rate of 15 per cent – 15 per cent?

Johnson talks well - better than anyone else in his party. But best not to look at him while he speaks. He has a blank and empty expression. It's words without meaning.

Brian Coleman could be fast-tracked for the Conservative leadership.

Boris makes the same speech every year. It's the Boris is Boris speech. Not the Boris is a credible PM speech.

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

The new university funding plan seems very fair to me. Although changing the repayment threshold to £25,000 for all plan II starters.
Of course for each student loan written into the books, the gov't now takes on a fair bit more effective debt.
I'm going to take a deeper look at the new arrangement in a blog post later on .

For information is the 25k now fixed, or will it move up with inflation/wage inflation ?

Edit:I'm not bothering to watch Boris's speech btw.

They probably haven't thought that far ahead.

As far as I am aware it is pegged to CPI

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Completely disjointed no theme.

This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

Worried

You should be!!

Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Completely disjointed no theme.

This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

Worried

You should be!!

Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election

Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Rurh Davidson's speech was a lot more interesting and inspiring (and funnier as well). But, to be fair, Boris did some very good Labour-bashing.

You could see why both David Cameron and Theresa May thought Boris Johnson was perfectly suited to be Tory Chairman.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Rurh Davidson's speech was a lot more interesting and inspiring (and funnier as well). But, to be fair, Boris did some very good Labour-bashing.

You could see why both David Cameron and Theresa May thought Boris Johnson was perfectly suited to be Tory Chairman.

Yes, provided there was someone else to do the hard work behind the scenes.

Essexit said:

MikeL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/915226770890280960

This is the thing. He can get a point across.

He'll be far, far, far more effective against Corbyn in a TV debate than someone like Rudd.

And far, far, far more present in a TV debate than someone like May.

Indeed.

I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Completely disjointed no theme.

This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

Worried

You should be!!

Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election

Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.

I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech

Exactly.

He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

And he'll absolutely destroy him.

MikeL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Completely disjointed no theme.

This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

Worried

You should be!!

Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election

Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.

I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech

Exactly.

He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

And he'll absolutely destroy him.

Can’t trecall; did he debate head to head with Livingstone? And if he did, how did it go?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

The new university funding plan seems very fair to me. Although changing the repayment threshold to £25,000 for all plan II starters.
Of course for each student loan written into the books, the gov't now takes on a fair bit more effective debt.
I'm going to take a deeper look at the new arrangement in a blog post later on .

For information is the 25k now fixed, or will it move up with inflation/wage inflation ?

Edit:I'm not bothering to watch Boris's speech btw.

They probably haven't thought that far ahead.

As far as I am aware it is pegged to CPI

"linked to earnings" IIRC.

The IFS have some good background reading. I can't quite get my head around the "RAB", but I think that formula/calculation is the essential bit to work out how much of the loan actually gets paid back at various thresholds/interest rates etc.

But yeah, it's effectively a significant permanent(?!!) tax cut for Plan2 graduates. As far as I can tell, they will still pay a fair bit more than plan 1 grads (like me!) - especially higher earners - but it's definitely fairer for them than it was before.

FF43 said:

MikeL said:

Indeed.

I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.

He will have improved his position with that speech and if he keeps on script he must be favourite to succeed TM but as we have no idea when that might be a new generation MP could come through.

Nothing is certain anymore in politics including, as some on here think, Corbyn as PM

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

MikeL said:

Indeed.

I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.

He will have improved his position with that speech and if he keeps on script he must be favourite to succeed TM but as we have no idea when that might be a new generation MP could come through.

Nothing is certain anymore in politics including, as some on here think, Corbyn as PM

Only Davidson or Boris can beat Corbyn it feels to me. Even that isn't a given and we may be experiencing a sea change in politics where no one can stop Jezza.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

MikeL said:

Indeed.

I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.

He will have improved his position with that speech and if he keeps on script he must be favourite to succeed TM but as we have no idea when that might be a new generation MP could come through.

Nothing is certain anymore in politics including, as some on here think, Corbyn as PM

Will Theresa's standing ovation beat IDS's?

bigjohnowls said:

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Completely disjointed no theme.

This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

Worried

You should be!!

Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election

Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.

The Tories can beat Corbyn

All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


BJ not the man.

Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.

Inequality is falling, isn't it?

david_herdson said:

bigjohnowls said:

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Completely disjointed no theme.

This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

Worried

You should be!!

Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election

Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.

The Tories can beat Corbyn

All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


BJ not the man.

Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.

Inequality is falling, isn't it?

Relative to the 1%?

logical_song said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

MikeL said:

Indeed.

I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.

He will have improved his position with that speech and if he keeps on script he must be favourite to succeed TM but as we have no idea when that might be a new generation MP could come through.

Nothing is certain anymore in politics including, as some on here think, Corbyn as PM

Will Theresa's standing ovation beat IDS's?

Lets see

OldKingCole said:

MikeL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Completely disjointed no theme.

This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

Worried

You should be!!

Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election

Re Corbyn - Labour do not need a majority to ruin the Tories election hopes. A hung parliament would do nicely and should be within their capabilities

Re Boris - He seems to think that he is a leader, but to me, he fails to come across as one.

I have reservations on Boris and was not at all pleased about his recent behaviour but having listened to him today he would shred Corbyn on TV and is, so far, the most likely next PM. As Sky said it was a barn storming speech and if they are saying that, it will do him no harm. My wife cannot stand him but even she said it was a good speech

Exactly.

He won't muck around with 7 way debates - he'll challenge Corbyn to a head to head which Corbyn will have to agree to.

And he'll absolutely destroy him.

Can’t trecall; did he debate head to head with Livingstone? And if he did, how did it go?

I remember that he did on Newsnight. He was good - because he went very serious. All the jokes were gone, it was about buses, housing, pollution etc if I remember (was years ago.) If he had serious ambitions about being PM, it's a mode he could do with switching back into from time to time.

Pong said:

david_herdson said:

bigjohnowls said:

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Completely disjointed no theme.

This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

Worried

You should be!!

Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election

Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.

The Tories can beat Corbyn

All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


BJ not the man.

Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.

Inequality is falling, isn't it?

Relative to the 1%?

FTSE 100 Directors vs the disabled since 2010?

I think everyone knows the answer

bigjohnowls said:

Pong said:

david_herdson said:

bigjohnowls said:

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Completely disjointed no theme.

This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

Worried

You should be!!

Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election

Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.

The Tories can beat Corbyn

All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


BJ not the man.

Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.

Inequality is falling, isn't it?

Relative to the 1%?

FTSE 100 Directors vs the disabled since 2010?

I think everyone knows the answer

Not exactly the Gini coefficient is it

bigjohnowls said:

Pong said:

david_herdson said:

bigjohnowls said:

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Completely disjointed no theme.

This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

Worried

You should be!!

Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election

Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.

The Tories can beat Corbyn

All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


BJ not the man.

Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.

Inequality is falling, isn't it?

Relative to the 1%?

FTSE 100 Directors vs the disabled since 2010?

I think everyone knows the answer

Both groups are outliers.

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/915239270293663744

https://twitter.com/isaby/status/915237853218697216

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/915243169075417094

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

MikeL said:

Indeed.

I'm no great fan of Boris but what Con has to have at the next GE is brilliant communication skills.

And Boris is the best bet hands down on that criteria.

I genuinely don't know. He clearly stands out from the other Conservatives, but whether in a good way for them, I am not sure. I think the Conservatives would probably be better jumping past the old guard to a new generation, which is presumably why Johnson wants to move fast.

He will have improved his position with that speech and if he keeps on script he must be favourite to succeed TM but as we have no idea when that might be a new generation MP could come through.

Nothing is certain anymore in politics including, as some on here think, Corbyn as PM

I quite fancy seeing Boris as PM if only for the spectacle of the rude awakening he would get time and time again as he finds out the difference between fantasy and reality.

Many foreign politicians seem to actively dislike him as Foreign Sec. I doubt that they would love him much more as PM.

It would almost be worth watching Boris get elected, yank us straight to WTO and then run when the s**t hits the fan (just like the last time!)

Boris would be the last Tory PM for a very long time. I could happily live with that, except for the fact I have three kids all starting to make their way in the world. The shit-storm Boris, followed by a very left wing Labour government armed with an ever-present Brexit excuse, would cause is not worth the personal pleasure I would get from seeing Boris fail utterly.

Pong said:

david_herdson said:

bigjohnowls said:

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

bigjohnowls said:

Completely disjointed no theme.

This man just proved he is no PM in waiting

Worried

You should be!!

Not at all - too many labour supporters think they are home and dry. TM thought that before the election

Party game. Come back in an hour and see if you can remember anything Johnson said. I think there was a joke about being shot at in Nigeria, an anecdote about millionaires in Cambodia and something to do with Corbyn and Caracas. I am not aware of any ideas in the speech. Maybe he was saying there's a lot going on in the UK and we should be happy about that.

The Tories can beat Corbyn

All it requires is Political thinking positive policies and some houses (loads of them)


BJ not the man.

Compassionate Capitalism beats Socialism everytime.

The Tories seem incapable of doing anything other than defend the excesses of Capitalism and growing inequality.

PM Corbyn is a distinct possibility till the Tories get it.

Inequality is falling, isn't it?

Relative to the 1%?

Gini coefficient.

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

Guido Fawkes ✔@GuidoFawkes
WATCH Alan Duncan: Brexit is "Tantrum" Thrown By Working Class https://order-order.com/2017/10/03/alan-duncan-brexit-tantrum-thrown-working-class/ …

twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/915239270293663744

don't forget racists.

No, racists were always going to vote for Brexit. What swung it, as Duncan pointed out was working class voters not seeing any Labour leadership campaigning for Remain and then being persuaded to vote against their own economic interest.

FrancisUrquhart said:

MikeL said:

The likes of Hunt, Rudd etc are all jolly good people but they won't be good enough in a GE campaign.

The TV debate Rudd did is a perfect example. She did well. But she was nowhere near landing knockout blows on Corbyn.

In order to win, Con has to have someone with 100% cut through who will destroy Corbyn on subjects like high taxes and exchange controls. Only Boris will do that.

As for being a PM - well famously Cameron was lazy - Boris as PM will be the front man.

Cameron was lazy is a bit of myth. All the civil servants have said he always did his red box on time etc etc etc, as did clegg, unlike workaholic Gordon who had massive backlogs of day to day government business. Cameron saw pm as akin to ceo of a big company and let others do the day to day management of their own departments.

I actually don’t think that is a bad approach compared to tony, bad al and Gordon’s micromanaging.

Wasn’t that Attlee’s strategy as well?

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/915239270293663744

Whoops. Does Boris have the balls to sack him?

Mortimer said:

Duncan should be fired for that, IMO.

Yep - seems like he has tired of working for Boris...

MikeL said:

The likes of Hunt, Rudd etc are all jolly good people but they won't be good enough in a GE campaign.

The TV debate Rudd did is a perfect example. She did well. But she was nowhere near landing knockout blows on Corbyn.

In order to win, Con has to have someone with 100% cut through who will destroy Corbyn on subjects like high taxes and exchange controls. Only Boris will do that.

As for being a PM - well famously Cameron was lazy - Boris as PM will be the front man.

Boris 2012, maybe. Boris post-Brexit and leadership nonsense? Not a hope. He's damaged goods among the younger, liberal voters who the Tories need to win back. In 2012 he was good old Boris - now he's seen as the worst Brexiteer of all, because it has looked like he pursued it purely to further his own ends. He's now the unacceptable face of the Tory party, the posh boy playing at politics with no thought for the consequences. And that was his key constituency - liberal leaning voters put off by Tory stiffness.

I'm also not so sure he'd savage Corbyn in debates. Corbyn is of course a plodder but is surprisingly effective thanks to his ability to make even silly things sound thoroughly reasonable. I can imagine Boris repeating the Tories mistake of June and trying to 'savage' Corbyn the man while he does his blessed are the meek act. Davidson could break through it by seeming reasonable, but Boris would have to show off like he's in the Oxford Union - not a good look.

Mortimer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mortimer said:

Duncan should be fired for that, IMO.

Worth watching the whole clip - while his choice of words is impolitic in the extreme (Middle Class voters have 'concerns', working class voters have 'tantrums' - extremely poor choice of words) , I think his analysis is correct - including the fault of the Remain Campaign appearing to be 'The Dave & George Show' with no positive vision or 'cross party endeavour' (Yes Mr Corbyn, I'm looking at you...)

Frankly I don't think it matters. The line is offensive. And wrong.

I agree the line is extremely offensive - harks back to the old 'prerogative of the harlot' 'there goes the tart's vote....'

Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

Sorry, but Ministers in the Foreign Office and Intl Trade departments need to be unrelentingly positive about Brexit and the opportunities it brings - having an internal opposition running around the world unable to keep their mouths shut looks f***ing terrible is not particularly helpful for Britain.

Sandpit said:

Firing Alan Duncan could be a good excuse starting point for a ministerial reshuffle.

Exactly.

Absolutely ideal timing too. Promote JRM to something cabinet level and we're talking.

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

Duncan should be fired for that, IMO.

It would be ironic if this were the trigger for Theresa May's high-wire act to come crashing down.

Butterfly wings?

TheScreamingEagles said:

This

https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/915228276121116672

Probably bottling it - he did when Cameron went, and the pressure is on again.

By the by, May's comments that she does not want 'Yes men' in her Cabinet has to rank as one of the more unbelievable political statements in recent times. If PM's didn't want or demand 'yes men' why is it they always seem to end up surrounded by them and falling out with those who aren't?

kle4 said:

By the by, May's comments that she does not want 'Yes men' in her Cabinet has to rank as one of the more unbelievable political statements in recent times. If PM's didn't want or demand 'yes men' why is it they always seem to end up surrounded by them and falling out with those who aren't?

It’s fine to say you don’t want to be surrounded by fawning yes men, but the arguments should be had behind closed doors and a united front presented on the agreed position - not done through the press.

New thread.

NEW THREAD

stevef said:

Corbyn's favourite status as the next PM seems to be based on the assumption that May will fight the next election -probably in 2022.

There is no basis for the assumption that Corbyn will be the next -or next next PM.

Hugh Gaitskell was favourite to be the next PM in 1956, post Suez, three years before landslide defeat at the hands of Harold Macmillan in 1959.

Neil Kinnock was the favourite to be next PM in 1990 at the height of the Poll tax before defeat at the hands of John Major in 1992.

Beware the poison chalice of being "favourite".

Mortimer said:

bigjohnowls said:

3 day week power cuts in 70s were apparently Labours fault according to BJ

Not heard of the Unions, mate? Thought your lot were pro them....

Even so, the 3 day week was a transparent gimmick to set the agenda that backfired.