Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Rudd moves up in the next CON leader betting but Corbyn
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Rudd moves up in the next CON leader betting but Corbyn still favourite to become next PM
Betting charts from Betdata.io
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Time for Johnny Mercer to become Leader and PM.
Nowt as strange as you Tories......
As for the strangeness stakes, I raise you a Mark Oaten.
Whereas DD, Hammond and BoJo betting slips are going to have limited life span. Ditto Hunt and Fallon, i fear.
I suspect David Davis wanting to stand down is good news for his former Chief of Staff, Mr Raab.
If Gove doesn't stand again, he might endorse Raab, whom he is close to.
That's quite the double endorsement.
I would declare that the country was divided like never before, across generations, classes and outlooks. As PM, I would govern for the whole country and my priority was to bring the country together and address the divisions. The referendum result reflected the unease about the EU but it was clear that no consensus was emerging in the country, in parliament or in government about what comes next as reflected in the hung parliament and the contradictory promises of the Leave campaign which are impossible to deliver together.
Therefore we would adopt a 2 step process. The first step would to be respect the referendum and Article 50 process by leaving the EU but retaining membership of the EEA and customs union. This will remove us from political frameworks and produce a net saving but the question of our place in Europe would be unresolved as this compromise would disappoint both adamant Remainers and Leavers.
To determine a final position, a further referendum will be needed. This would have three options:
1) rejoin the EU
2) remain in the EEA
3) leave the single market and customs union. (AV fans this is your moment!)
However the three positions would need to be fully informed - we cannot repeat the referendum with both sides discrediting the other and the conduct of this referendum will be part of how I am restoring credibility and trust in politics. Therefore the Government will, in partnership with the EU, carry out extensive negotiations with the EU on all three options, with detailed costings, transition, risk analysis and implementation plans published for each option. As all three options will be Government-approved, the Government will remain strictly neutral throughout the campaign; ministers can support the approach they feel is best. This referendum will take place only when the country has settled experience in the EEA, and has fully weighted and negotiated the alternative options.
The Government will then throw its weight and enthusiasm behind the option with the greatest support, and there will be an agreed plan of what this will mean and how it will be delivered. The Government will in the meantime seek to address issues raised such as growth and immigration burdens and bringing forward plans to reduce regulation and concrete examples of proposed regulation changes which are only possible outside the single market. These will add clarity to the debate.
This Government is committed to uniting a divided country; these plans will disappoint some, particularly those who support the current approach, however in seeking a fully implementable plan for leaving the single market we will bring clarity and the time we need to craft such an approach, and there will be the opportunity to secure the mandate for this approach that I have concluded I lack.
The only reason I can see for her being elected is if Brexit proves to be an intractable mess, and they need a remainer to reverse ferret.
She's just 7 years younger than May. Wow.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/house/75976/dominic-raab-remain-are-getting-jittery-–-were-winning-debate
“I think the sensible thing, if it’s very close – within a couple of points – would be to take pause, respect the verdict of the British people and effectively shelve this debate until that point, which I hope is going to be as close to the 2020 election as possible.
“I think that’s the pragmatic, sensible approach. Then we can all get on with delivering the business of government.”
Not a market with which I want to be involved. It's analogous to having a bet on next year's Derby now. Back someone because they make one good speech but they could easily make a gaffe or simply not improve.
I think you have to bet on the circumstances and time of May's departure. Will she jump or will she be pushed ? I find it strange the usual "bright young things" from the backbenches are mentioned. Tom Tugendhat might be the leader after the leader after next and would the Conservatives really choose someone without Ministerial experience even at junior level ?
If May leaves as Prime Minister are the Conservatives going to involve the members in choosing the next Prime Minister ? Perhaps the Party can offer an incentive to build its membership - £3 to join and a vote to choose the next Prime Minister ?
If the leadership election occurs because the Party is in Opposition, it becomes a similar but different question as the choice is the person who might one day be PM.
As with all these contests the question is not who the Party WANTS but who the Party NEEDS. They aren't always one and the same.
https://twitter.com/montie/status/915212776787861505
- There was no option of 'leaving the EU but retaining membership of the EEA and customs union.' There could have been an option of negotiating to leave and to apply for membership of the EEA as a non-EU member, with the consent of the four EFTA countries and the 27 other EU countries, although on what timescale that consent could be achieved, and on what terms, is problematic. What's more, it's very unlikely that such consent could have been obtained for a temporary arrangement, as envisaged.
- There is absolutely no chance at all that our EU friends would countenance "extensive negotiations with the EU on all three options, with detailed costings, transition, risk analysis and implementation plans published for each option". It's hard enough getting them to agree to negotiate on one option in the current situation.
If he didn't think it was a good idea, he wouldn't have put his reputation on the line.
He could have walked away. Opted out. Not taken small tory donors hard earned cash and delivered them a defeat.
That's a completely disastrous outcome if you're a PR company.
Crosby is spinning his way out of a major f*ckup, partly of his own making.
He should be refunding the money he took from small tory donors.
Seems extremely unlikely mind.
Even if it is most likely to be the usual bollocks.
@janemerrick23: "British Conservative values are my values". Biggest leadership pitch of the week so far.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=emL4hsQwbQ8
There is no basis for the assumption that Corbyn will be the next -or next next PM.
Hugh Gaitskell was favourite to be the next PM in 1956, post Suez, three years before landslide defeat at the hands of Harold Macmillan in 1959.
Neil Kinnock was the favourite to be next PM in 1990 at the height of the Poll tax before defeat at the hands of John Major in 1992.
Beware the poison chalice of being "favourite".
At a fringe meeting at the conference Jo Johnson, the universities minister, said students who were short of money could manage by choosing to live “a frugal existence”. He was responding to Martin Lewis, the MoneySavingExpert.com founder, who said students who only got a maintenance loan of £5,000 could not afford to live on that.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/oct/03/conservative-conference-2017-theresa-may-says-she-does-not-want-yes-men-in-her-cabinet
I was annoyed to read in the regional paper the other day that my constituency's Labour PPC, Tim Young, is to be replaced - Labour has decided that Colchester is now a marginal and selected it for an all-woman shortlist.
They're being ambitious to say it's marginal - Will Quince's (Con) majority is 5,677 - but losing his candidacy seems an odd reward for Tim after taking Labour to a comfortable 2nd place in a seat where they've come 3rd every other election since it was created in 1997.
Rehashing the tired joke about how many jobs Osborne has.
We don't know on what terms we'd be offered to Remain by the EU, EEA-EFTA would need to be the deal on the second (needing acceptance by both the EEA and EFTA) and it's a brand new, bespoke, negotiation with the EU on the last.
Let's assume the EU and EFTA fully played ball, and laid out all the options on the table, assuming single choice, you'd probably get:
(1) Remain - 25%
(2) EEA/EFTA - 35%
(3) Full Leave - 40%
Under FPTP, Full Leave wins. Under AV, it's EEA-EFTA.
or 1 of a hundred other options.
http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/davidbadash/us_votes_against_un_resolution_condemning_death_penalty_for_blasphemy_adultery_and_same_sex_relations
"The United States has voted against a United Nations resolution that condemns the use of the death penalty as punishment for a variety of acts, including religious blasphemy, adultery, and same-sex relations."
In reality it's still less than 1/5 chance that May is replaced by Corbyn which indicates a roughly 4/5 chance that either May gets replaced before the next election or wins the next election and ultimately gets replaced.
Doesnt seem to have mentioned it so far
Maybe you should re-read what Dixie wrote.
Amber Rudd is the opposite.
Although she might say that is a disgrace.
"André du Plessis, Head of UN Programme and Advocacy at the International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association (ILGA) explained to PinkNews: “No votes on this resolution as a whole are generally best-interpreted as a position by a country on the death penalty as a whole.
“It is important to point out that a ‘no’ vote on the resolution is not addressing same-sex relations, but the wider application of death penalty generally.
“The United States, for example, has the death penalty and has a consistent record of voting no on resolutions that are against it.”
He added: “We are grateful for the leadership of the eight countries that brought this resolution – Belgium, Benin, Costa Rica, France, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia and Switzerland – countries that come from every corner of the globe showing truly cross-regional support.”
It's also good to see some more of the more progressive African countries voted yes.
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/915228276121116672
You know the endless tube strikes with TfL in London?
Think of that happening all over again. Nationwide.
https://order-order.com/2017/10/03/boris-speech-full-text/#more-277651
Is this what he actually said, or what he was supposed to say? There’s not a lot of foreign secretary stuff in there.
He doesn't really seem to believe in it if there's anything he did seem to believe was the transparent bullshit of saying how much better we would be outside the EU.
Of course for each student loan written into the books, the gov't now takes on a fair bit more effective debt.
I'm going to take a deeper look at the new arrangement in a blog post later on
For information is the 25k now fixed, or will it move up with inflation/wage inflation ?
Edit:I'm not bothering to watch Boris's speech btw.