politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The TMay successor betting moves to BJohnson after suggestions
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The TMay successor betting moves to BJohnson after suggestions that DDavis no longer interested
Boris Johnson, who just over a month ago had been down at 6% in the next CON leader betting has now moved back sharply and is 17% clear favourite following reports that David Davis will no longer want it.
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Is he retiring to another country?
You can’t complain about the economic arsonism of Corbyn if you’re a Brexiteer.
David Davis might still be PM if Mrs May is toppled in the near future, so I wouldn’t lay him at silly prices.
I think there's a reason for the sparse attendance right there. Assume you are an engaged Party member who has other ways of spending £520. I think those prices are a blow back to when activists were seen as an embarrassment.
There'll naturally be a period of turbulence as we leave EU trade deals and negotiate our own. This isn't difficult to comprehend.
The economics of socialism always fail, permanently. We need only look at Venezuela. China's rapid economic growth only took off once it moved to a more capitalist approach.
This ridiculous "If you want to leave the EU you're just like a Corbynista" line holds as much water as your mad views on Caesar being a better general than Hannibal.
It's particularly perverse when you yourself claim to support leaving the EU, just not right now (the idea it'd be easier to leave in the future is about as optimistic as throwing yourself out of a plane because you might land in the Playboy mansion swimming pool).
I mean the Telegraph is the Boris house paper.
Granted, Corbyn is too polarising a figure to win Labour the kind of Blair like majorities...but Rudd certainly has little prospect to retain her seat.
You're arguing against a case that I haven't made.
Anyway, the story is very odd.
An attempt to smoke out/pin down Crosby?
This was the Sun's take;
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4599000/amber-rudd-hires-top-pollster-sir-lyton-crosbys-firm-to-help-her-next-election-campaign/
Unless I'm misreading, they're saying the funding is - at least in part - from Feldman.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp
Nowhere did I mention or support economic nationalism.
And if you believe no economic hit is acceptable as the price for determining our own future, without being subject to the QMV nonsense to which Brown signed us up (contrary to his own manifesto pledge) then you're happy to take a political hit over and over again.
The EU only ever centralises power. Now there's open talk of the EU army derided as a myth by EU-philes like Clegg only a few years ago.
Like many (perhaps most) people, I'd happily sign up to the economics of the EU without the politics. But that's not on offer. And your claimed preference for leaving in an orderly fashion in a decade or so is, I fear, complacent and unrealistic.
There are plenty of good reasons to prefer to stay or to prefer to leave, but making false claims (such as economic nationalism or comparing a Leave voter to a Corbynista) doesn't do much for the debate.
Mate...the whole Brexit fuckup is built on economic nationalism. It's utterly corrosive, damaging and illiterate.
Why do you think the only business people Brexit dredged up was some wanker who set up Weatherspoons, or the completely bonkers, Dyson?
The kind of nationalism that underpins Brexit is horrible with a capital H. It has completely debased our country, thrown us out to the margins, and alienated us from world affairs instead looking to the likes of Trump and Saudi for crumbs.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, the economic policy of this nation, for good or ill, will be decided at the next General Election. The decision to leave the EU was likewise made at the ballot box.
You seem greatly antagonistic towards those who share your view we should leave, but prefer to do it sooner rather than later.
But hey ...
https://www.gq.com/story/inside-federal-bureau-of-way-too-many-guns
That's been a federal law, thanks to the NRA, since 1986: No searchable database of America's gun owners. So people here have to use paper, sort through enormous stacks of forms and record books that gun stores are required to keep and to eventually turn over to the feds when requested. It's kind of like a library in the old days—but without the card catalog. They can use pictures of paper, like microfilm (they recently got the go-ahead to convert the microfilm to PDFs), as long as the pictures of paper are not searchable. You have to flip through and read. No searching by gun owner. No searching by name…
Not to mention all the social costs:
' A raid on a three-bedroom house in north-west London has found 35 men living in rooms full of mattresses.
The discovery was made on Winchester Avenue, Queensbury, at about 6am on Tuesday following complaints from neighbours, Brent council said. The men, all of eastern European origin, had piled bedding in every room except bathrooms, with one mattress even laid out under a canopy in the back garden. '
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/20/london-council-finds-35-men-living-in-one-three-bedroom-house
The Leave vote was a consequence of the working class being deemed socioeconomically irrelevant maybe even worthless by the establishment.
Likewise the rise of Corbyn was a consequence of other demographics being treated in the same way.
The headline is ‘Corbynism and Brexit, two cheeks of the same arse’
Dying in a ditch for privatisation and buy to let landlords will not save the Tory Party. The one policy that might is rampant housebuilding.
" at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us. "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm
to a £115bn current account deficit in 2016.
The green belt is a real achievement and we should build on it.
Now we are akin to a dog with a begging bowel. It took the Germans the cataclysm of a defeat in a world war to be dictated to by world bodies. At least with Britain we have diminished ourselves only through a vote and not the folly of war.
But although he once again tops ConHome’s members’ poll on potential eventual successors to Theresa May, I detect a lessening of the adulation he once enjoyed. With so much at stake, there is little patience for anything that looks like self-indulgence.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/10/lord-ashcrofts-conference-diary-revealed-the-mp-who-led-the-singing-of-happy-birthday-to-the-pm.html
The self-indulgence is sub-standard TMay sticking on.
But no, she intends to emulate Gordon Brown.
And now the party is flailing around, left holding Brexit, knowing now that it is on the wrong side of the economic debate.
The buying of the product creates the debt. There's never not going to be a debt when you buy a product across a currency border.
Forgive me if I'm being thick here.
Let's face it, the tory PBers would vote for anything or anybody in a blue rosette, it saves thinking. And in the meantime they're happy to bash away in echo chambers and ignore the general public. Rudd has to hire an American to tell her what to say, its pathetic.
The asset in this case is government debt which means that our future taxes will be higher to pay for our current consumption.
So we make ourselves poorer in the future to pay for today.
As for 'rejected by the voters':
http://hastheresamayresignedyet.com
Brexit is happening, unless the tories grow a pair balls Corbyn will happen too.
I just heard that only 1 in 4 of the under 50's voted Tory at the last election which roughly corresponds to those under 50 who voted Brexit.
I'm no psephologist but that tells me the Tories are fucked unless they can find a get out and with Boris there's zero chance of that.
I'm sure Labour knows this
That's rejection.
UK builders suffer surprise contraction
Breaking! Britain’s construction sector is contracting, fuelling fears that the UK economy is slowing.
The Markit construction PMI, which tracks activity across the sector, fell to just 48.1 in September. That’s down from 51.1 in August.
Crucially, it is below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.
In other words, activity across the building sector is shrinking, for the first time in 13 months (just after the Brexit vote).
This is much worse than anyone in the City expected (economists predicted a reading of around 50.0)
Builders interviewed by Markit say they suffered a drop in workloads due to “fragile confidence and subdued risk appetite” among clients, especially in the commercial building sector.
Brexit uncertainty appears to be a big factor. Markit says:
Survey respondents widely commented on a headwind from political and economic uncertainty, alongside extended lead times for budget approvals among clients
(I appreciate that cancelling the debt would actually hurt people in this country)
But they can't, they prefer to blame the Brexit bogeyman.
Mr Swaffield blamed the company's demise on "terrorism and the closure of some markets like Turkey, Tunisia and Egypt," which led to more competition on routes to Spain and Portugal.
"Flights were being squeezed into a smaller number of destinations and a 25% reduction in ticket prices on our routes created a massive economic challenge for our short-haul network," he told the BBC.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41481661?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter
Because of that vanity by election, across the party, David Davis is seen as a preening twat who puts the T I T in egotist
Higher air fares, less choice and possibly even a return to 1970s air charter days to get around flight restrictions: a leading UK airline boss has told The Independent what could await British travellers if the present “open skies” arrangements end after Brexit.
Andrew Swaffield, chief executive of Monarch, said: “Fares will gradually go up and there will be less competition.” He said the remarkable choice and low fares currently available to British travellers are due to European liberalisation.
http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-monarch-flights-boss-step-backwards-seventies-warning-latest-a7751641.html
Not often you hear that. Especially given the large numbers involved.
Not sure why these two metrics would move in opposite directions.
In the circumstances the rise of populism is hardly surprising. But right-wing populists have rushed into the blind alleys of Brexit in the UK and Trump in the US - neither of these offer any serious hope of dealing with the causes of the popular sense of alienation and anger. So the stage is set fair for left-wing populism and there is very little the right can do to halt it.
https://tinyurl.com/yccfshp2
Which isn't to say Monarch didn't have huge problems anyway. It certainly did. But if you are already I'll that's a reason to avoid unnecessary infections not vote for them in a referendum. It's simply obtuse to argue that because something isn't the sole or primary cause of something it can't be an aggrevating factor.
I'm puzzled why the line is so flat in the earlier period, surely there should be some movement up and down? I remember though that severe current deficits were thought to be a sign of incompetence and brought down governments.