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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nearly two in three voters don’t approve of the way the government is handling the Brexit negotiations
Several pollsters are tracking how the public is viewing the Brexit negotiations and the latest, from ORB shows a sharp net decline in approval.
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Seems like every time I come on here there is a new thread. Not goal hanging for the glory. Honest.0
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Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?0
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Don't worry David Davis, Liam Fox, and Boris Johnson are in charge of delivering Brexit, nothing to worry about.0
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Should be when ORB publish their tables.dixiedean said:Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?
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Emmanuel Macron: If Cameron attacks, everything will be alright.
Michel Barnier: Monsieur Macron... Cameron...
Angela Merkel: Cameron didn't have enough Remainers. The Remain victory didn't take place.
[Macron pauses to take off his glasses]
Macron: The following stay here: Tusk, Merkel, Barnier and Juncker.
[The four named EU bigwigs, along with Hollande and Verhofstadt, remain in the room as the others leave. The door closes behind them]
That was an order! Cameron's attack was an order! How dare you ignore my orders?!
[Macron's ranting is clearly audible outside the room]
Is this what it came to? The Commission, everybody lied to me. Even the LibDems! The Remainers are no more than a bunch of disloyal cowards!
Juncker: Monsieur Macron, I can't permit you to insult the British Remainers-
Macron: They are all cowards, traitors and failures!
Juncker: Monsieur Macron, This is outrageous!
Macron: The Commission are the scum of the European Project!
[flings a pencil onto the table]
NO SENSE OF HONOUR! You call yourself "Commissioner" because you spent years at the academy, where you only learned how to use a knife and fork! For years, the Commission obstructed me. All you ever did is thwart me. What I should have done, is had all the high officers fired, like Donald Trump did!
[pauses]
I never went to the academy. But I conquered all of France on my own. Traitors! I've been betrayed and deceived from the start. Such enormous betrayal of the European people. But all these traitors will pay. They will pay with their own jobs! They will drown in their European Regulations!
Theresa May: [To Anna Soubry, outside the room] Anna, please calm yourself!
Macron: All my orders have been ignored. How can I be a French President under these circumstances? It's over. The war is lost. But if you think this means I'll leave Brussels... you're wrong. I'd rather give Nigel Farage fellatio! [sighs] Do whatever you want.0 -
Tom Petty dead. Saw him at Wembley Arena c 1988.0
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Suspect it is probably both - and there lies the conundrum for anyone leading the Country into Brexitdixiedean said:Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?
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TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't worry David Davis, Liam Fox, and Boris Johnson are in charge of delivering Brexit, nothing to worry about.
Glad you're on board.
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The problem with such polling is that although the overall numbers are clearly meaningful to some extent (and I would be one of those disapproving) they are conflating many different opinions.
We already know that most Remainers disapprove of the way May is handling things.
We also know that for almost exactly the opposite reasons most of the hard line Leavers also disapprove of the way she is handling things.
But both these groups would probably disapprove almost no matter what she was doing unless she was either saying we ignore the vote and stay in (hard line Remainers) or leave immediately with no deal (hard line Leavers).
It strikes me that this sort of polling was pretty much inevitable so long as she tries to tread a path anywhere near the centre.0 -
I assume you have got me mixed up with someone else as I haven't speculated as to what the killer's motives were.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm sure MP_SE will be along shortly expressing his outrage.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh god I was joking about Alex Jones.... Apparently this one is false flag by antifa!
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Ta. Tried to google it but thought I was being slow.TheScreamingEagles said:
Should be when ORB publish their tables.dixiedean said:Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?
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But you've been getting exercised by some on the left being complete bellends over the attack, but you're quiet on this, I wonder why.MP_SE2 said:
I assume you have got me mixed up with someone else as I haven't speculated as to what the killer's motives were.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm sure MP_SE will be along shortly expressing his outrage.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh god I was joking about Alex Jones.... Apparently this one is false flag by antifa!
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I think most people are just sick of hearing about Brexit.0
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Just looked, ORB have published their tables, but they don't split by Remain/Leave voters, other pollsters like YouGov do.dixiedean said:
Ta. Tried to google it but thought I was being slow.TheScreamingEagles said:
Should be when ORB publish their tables.dixiedean said:Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?
https://www.orb-international.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/October-Brexit-Confidence-ORB.pdf0 -
Updated reports are that shooter had 19 weapons with him.0
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"Nonviolence is a powerful and just weapon. Indeed, it is a weapon unique in history, which cuts without wounding and ennobles the man who wields it."SeanT said:fpt
MEH. Give the Catalonians some guns. Arm them. Then let's see how brave the Castilian cops might be.
— Martin Luther King, Jr., The Quest for Peace and Justice (1964)0 -
I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.0
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I love going to Vegas, just beware of the high class hookers.rcs1000 said:I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.
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Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/9149558022340157450 -
Just stick with the discount ones, right?TheScreamingEagles said:
I love going to Vegas, just beware of the high class hookers.rcs1000 said:I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.
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Yup.rcs1000 said:
Just stick with the discount ones, right?TheScreamingEagles said:
I love going to Vegas, just beware of the high class hookers.rcs1000 said:I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.
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rcs1000 said:
I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.
One of my least favourite places!0 -
What would a good Muslim boy such as yourself love about sin city?TheScreamingEagles said:
I love going to Vegas, just beware of the high class hookers.rcs1000 said:I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.
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One factor is that Labour’s is still managing to get away with its carefully contrived ambivalence on the issue. How long that will last is hard to say.
Quite awhile I should think. With the Tories not able to portray any strength or stability, Labour will be able to get away with any ambivalence quite effectively, and the Tories struggle to benefit even when there is good news.0 -
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I've been on two stag dos there, and a few gambling trips.FrancisUrquhart said:
What would a good Muslim boy such as yourself love about sin city?TheScreamingEagles said:
I love going to Vegas, just beware of the high class hookers.rcs1000 said:I'm off to Vegas on Wednesday. Wish me luck.
I ony went to ensure my companions engaged in high standards of moral hygiene.0 -
I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/9149558022340157450 -
Perhaps the NRA would allow Trump to change 2nd amendment to limit guns to a maximum of 18.FrancisUrquhart said:Updated reports are that shooter had 19 weapons with him.
Could have saved 3 lives last night0 -
ProbablySeanT said:
AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914955802234015745
The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.0 -
Don't worry, Eton College knows how to prepare people for the premiership, it'll be fine.SeanT said:
AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914955802234015745
The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.0 -
17 months is an awfully long time in politics - just think about the changes over the past 17 months. Literally anything could happen.SeanT said:
AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914955802234015745
The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
Edit: plus with the tories, the obvious front-runner never gets the role (e.g. Hestletine, Portillo, Osborne, Johnson)0 -
Is that Ruth 'stop WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland' Davidson ?SeanT said:
That makes Boris PM, I reckon. Unless an unexpected star emerges, or Ruth D can somehow be smuggled southScott_P said:
Whoever is the next Conservative leader is going to have to advocate some harsh and unpopular policies.0 -
Doesn't really enlighten us then. Why would you commission such a poll and not ask for leave or remain. Surely you'd need them for sampling control. In which case why not publish?TheScreamingEagles said:
Just looked, ORB have published their tables, but they don't split by Remain/Leave voters, other pollsters like YouGov do.dixiedean said:
Ta. Tried to google it but thought I was being slow.TheScreamingEagles said:
Should be when ORB publish their tables.dixiedean said:Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?
https://www.orb-international.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/October-Brexit-Confidence-ORB.pdf0 -
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Agree with that. Up until yesterday DDavis was favourite to succeed. Now he seems to have ruled himself out.SeanT said:
AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914955802234015745
The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.0 -
It is a mystery.dixiedean said:
Doesn't really enlighten us then. Why would you commission such a poll and not ask for leave or remain. Surely you'd need them for sampling control. In which case why not publish?TheScreamingEagles said:
Just looked, ORB have published their tables, but they don't split by Remain/Leave voters, other pollsters like YouGov do.dixiedean said:
Ta. Tried to google it but thought I was being slow.TheScreamingEagles said:
Should be when ORB publish their tables.dixiedean said:Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?
https://www.orb-international.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/October-Brexit-Confidence-ORB.pdf
This, however, should cheer you up
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/9149616355504046080 -
Maybe not - if the next leader is in opposition because May held on that long (not that they will necessarily win if she does not) then they can advocate some very popular policies.another_richard said:
Is that Ruth 'stop WFA in England and Wales but keep it in Scotland' Davidson ?SeanT said:
That makes Boris PM, I reckon. Unless an unexpected star emerges, or Ruth D can somehow be smuggled southScott_P said:
Whoever is the next Conservative leader is going to have to advocate some harsh and unpopular policies.0 -
The brother of the shooter claims he was a multi-millionaire. It just get weirder and weirder. And no that doesn't mean I am suggesting any sort of tin foil hat conspiracy theory.0
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I would not mess around with the Guardia Civil armed or unarmed. They are hard and deeply unpleasant with it. Fatalistic, Castillian Catholicism is not the Bachinnalian Mediterranean variety you get in Catalonia and Andalucia. It's why the Castillians won all the violent confrontations.SeanT said:fpt
MEH. Give the Catalonians some guns. Arm them. Then let's see how brave the Castilian cops might be.
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Boris's time has come... and gone. It'll not be him.SeanT said:
I've gone from being very pro-Boris (I do owe him a massive personal career debt), to quite pro, to so-so, to mildly negative (since Brexit), yet in the last few weeks, I've been thinking: why the feck not. Give him a chance.kle4 said:
Don't worry, Eton College knows how to prepare people for the premiership, it'll be fine.SeanT said:
AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914955802234015745
The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
He's smart, he's still charismatic, sure he annoys millions, but he can also charm millions. He is the Corbyn of the right. He also believes (genuinely) in Brexit, and the Tories may just need that convinced salesman spiel to see things through. That sense of optimism. Let's do this!
He's a kind of pound-shop Churchill, but that's where we are. I see no obvious rivals apart from Ruth D (who would be perfect, but she's stuck in Holyrood)
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Well Bin Laden was worth a good few million. Cash = access to bombs, guns or w/e - not really a hindrance. If you can't rub two pennies together it is tricky to get hold of a gun.FrancisUrquhart said:The brother of the shooter claims he was a multi-millionaire. It just get weirder and weirder.
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The most interesting thing about Boris was in the Sunday Times, he's itching to be sacked because he's struggling to make ends meet on the salary of a Foreign Secretary.
I did point out a few weeks ago it must be frustrating for Boris seeing George Osborne earning £650,00 a year for one day a week.0 -
Well quite. There was some suggestion in the media earlier that gambler = broke = motive.Pulpstar said:
Well Bin Laden was worth a good few million. Cash = access to bombs, guns or w/e - not really a hindrance. If you can't rub two pennies together it is tricky to get hold of a gun.FrancisUrquhart said:The brother of the shooter claims he was a multi-millionaire. It just get weirder and weirder.
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Not if there's an early contest. He's right that this is probably his last big job (and boy is it a big one), but if Boris tries and succeeds in toppling Theresa May in the near future then I think that DD should still be favourite.MikeSmithson said:
Agree with that. Up until yesterday DDavis was favourite to succeed. Now he seems to have ruled himself out.SeanT said:
AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914955802234015745
The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
On the other hand, if the contest doesn't take place until 2019 or later, then Boris is going to look awfully shop-soiled.0 -
Boris was the reason I voted Tory for the first time ever in 2008SeanT said:
I've gone from being very pro-Boris (I do owe him a massive personal career debt), to quite pro, to so-so, to mildly negative (since Brexit), yet in the last few weeks, I've been thinking: why the feck not. Give him a chance.kle4 said:
Don't worry, Eton College knows how to prepare people for the premiership, it'll be fine.SeanT said:
AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914955802234015745
The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
He's smart, he's still charismatic, sure he annoys millions, but he can also charm millions. He is the Corbyn of the right. He also believes (genuinely) in Brexit, and the Tories may just need that convinced salesman spiel to see things through. That sense of optimism. Let's do this!
He's a kind of pound-shop Churchill, but that's where we are. I see no obvious rivals apart from Ruth D (who would be perfect, but she's stuck in Holyrood)
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Yeah, but Osborne's CV includes a six-year stint as the G20's most successful finance minister.TheScreamingEagles said:The most interesting thing about Boris was in the Sunday Times, he's itching to be sacked because he's struggling to make ends meet on the salary of a Foreign Secretary.
I did point out a few weeks ago it must be frustrating for Boris seeing George Osborne earning £650,00 a year for one day a week.0 -
Very true.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yeah, but Osborne's CV includes a six-year stint as the G20's most successful finance minister.TheScreamingEagles said:The most interesting thing about Boris was in the Sunday Times, he's itching to be sacked because he's struggling to make ends meet on the salary of a Foreign Secretary.
I did point out a few weeks ago it must be frustrating for Boris seeing George Osborne earning £650,00 a year for one day a week.0 -
Exactly! I suspect May will find a way to hang on through to the GE. Win or lose at that point her successor will be from the next generation. Boris will join the pantheon of the 'might-have-beens'.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not if there's an early contest. He's right that this is probably his last big job (and boy is it a big one), but if Boris tries and succeeds in toppling Theresa May in the near future then I think that DD should still be favourite.MikeSmithson said:
Agree with that. Up until yesterday DDavis was favourite to succeed. Now he seems to have ruled himself out.SeanT said:
AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914955802234015745
The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
On the other hand, if the contest doesn't take place until 2019 or later, then Boris is going to look awfully shop-soiled.0 -
Back on topic, is there any indication from that poll as to whether voters are blaming the government more than the EU?0
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An interesting observation - which might just explain Davis' statement.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not if there's an early contest. He's right that this is probably his last big job (and boy is it a big one), but if Boris tries and succeeds in toppling Theresa May in the near future then I think that DD should still be favourite.MikeSmithson said:
Agree with that. Up until yesterday DDavis was favourite to succeed. Now he seems to have ruled himself out.SeanT said:
AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914955802234015745
The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
On the other hand, if the contest doesn't take place until 2019 or later, then Boris is going to look awfully shop-soiled.
A touch of Morton's fork... is Davis a bridge player ?
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What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?
The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.0 -
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I think that is right, and I agree that Emily Thornberry is one to watch. However, the softness or otherwise of Brexit is going to be decided in the next 12 months, because that is the absolute latest that plans can be made - might even be too late.SeanT said:
But EVERYONE will look shop soiled by 2022, and the next GE.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not if there's an early contest. He's right that this is probably his last big job (and boy is it a big one), but if Boris tries and succeeds in toppling Theresa May in the near future then I think that DD should still be favourite.MikeSmithson said:
Agree with that. Up until yesterday DDavis was favourite to succeed. Now he seems to have ruled himself out.SeanT said:
AFAIK he's never said he plans to retire from politics before. "This is my last big job" does not sound like a man hoping to be PM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I cannot see how this is not consistent with David Davis previous comments. His department will be defunct on the 29th March 2019TheScreamingEagles said:Look at the story of the bottom of the Telegraph front page
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914955802234015745
The door is opening wider and wider for Boris. For good, or ill.
On the other hand, if the contest doesn't take place until 2019 or later, then Boris is going to look awfully shop-soiled.
Corbyn is 68, and will be 73 in 2022. That's really quite old, and, I reckon, way too old for the Brits to elect him as PM.
In four more years will the Labour Conference still be singing Oooooh, Jeremy Corbyn! - call me an old cynic, but I REALLY doubt it. Corbyn is a phenomenon of political youth, he is the latest boyband in a vest, and boybands come and go.
Unlike Corbyn, Boris has been in front line politics for a decade, his initial appeal has very much worn off, but he is still a serious politician. He is also like Churchill in terms of being in and out of favour.
I reckon it will be Boris versus SOMEONE WE CAN'T PREDICT versus Ruth Davidson for Tory leader. Timing is all.
And the next Labour PM will be Emily Thornberry, producing a much more centrist version of Corbynism, with Softer Brexit.0 -
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914965311346102272
(Although a successful leadership bid has been launched from Hastings before of course - it'd be one in the eye for Boris!)0 -
Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.Pulpstar said:What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?
The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.0 -
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/9149653113461022720 -
He seems to provoke visceral dislike from many Tories. He was being briefed against for months in the lead up to the referendum, and while such polling as exists suggests he is hardly super popular with the rank and vile, I struggle to see why the possibility provokes such animus.Pulpstar said:What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?
The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.0 -
Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/9149653113461022720 -
He has an annoying habit of talking sense.kle4 said:
He seems to provoke visceral dislike from many Tories. He was being briefed against for months in the lead up to the referendum, and while such polling as exists suggests he is hardly super popular with the rank and vile, I struggle to see why the possibility provokes such animus.Pulpstar said:What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?
The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.0 -
That's what they thought in the run up to 2015. Instead her majority went up to 4,700.Benpointer said:
Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914965311346102272
If the LibDems recover a bit, and the Conservatives don't alienate their core vote next time round, she has a good chance of repeating the trick. Still, she's certainly in danger, and that's definitely a problem for any leadership bid.0 -
You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.Benpointer said:
Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914965311346102272
Next you'll be talking about Al Gore Rhythms0 -
The ground game was just running late by 2 years is all.TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.Benpointer said:
Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914965311346102272
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He didn't look very competent over the self-employed NI cock up; he is lucky that TMay reset the bar for incompetence so drastically that that episode has faded from the memory. I had to Google to remind myself how recent that was - March this year.another_richard said:
Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.Pulpstar said:What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?
The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.0 -
Now here's a thought I've been mulling over:
If the Budget earlier this year had been accepted without problem would there have been a GE ?
I rather suspect that May went for the GE because firstly she wanted more leeway for tax and spending changes and secondly she wanted a bigger majority for dealing with rebellions such as the Budget provoked.0 -
Why should it? If it didn't in 2017, I don't know that anything dramatic will occur for them next time, even if some increase should be possible given possibly 12 years of Tory government. They couldn't even recover second in many former heartlands.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's what they thought in the run up to 2015. Instead her majority went up to 4,700.Benpointer said:
Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914965311346102272
If the LibDems recover a bit
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Not sure it does really. While critical, not sure anyone else would be better. Stable clubs do well. Palace sack someone every couple of months and look at them. Wrong people wrong strategy. Conservatives take note!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a mystery.dixiedean said:
Doesn't really enlighten us then. Why would you commission such a poll and not ask for leave or remain. Surely you'd need them for sampling control. In which case why not publish?TheScreamingEagles said:
Just looked, ORB have published their tables, but they don't split by Remain/Leave voters, other pollsters like YouGov do.dixiedean said:
Ta. Tried to google it but thought I was being slow.TheScreamingEagles said:
Should be when ORB publish their tables.dixiedean said:Is there a breakdown of whether it is leavers or remainers who are becoming less happy?
https://www.orb-international.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/October-Brexit-Confidence-ORB.pdf
This, however, should cheer you up
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/9149616355504046080 -
Disagree. It was a vanity trip encouraged by DDavisanother_richard said:Now here's a thought I've been mulling over:
If the Budget earlier this year had been accepted without problem would there have been a GE ?
I rather suspect that May went for the GE because firstly she wanted more leeway for tax and spending changes and secondly she wanted a bigger majority for dealing with rebellions such as the Budget provoked.0 -
I recall at that time wondering why so many people went after Hammond for that though - May is PM, unless people are telling me she didn't see the budget before Hammond introduced it, she must have known it was coming, so either one or both of them didn't realise it contradicted a previous pledge, or they considered the situation demanded it and then backed off when trouble arose. A choice between idiocy and cowardice.Ishmael_Z said:
He didn't look very competent over the self-employed NI cock up; he is lucky that TMay reset the bar for incompetence so drastically that that episode has faded from the memory. I had to Google to remind myself how recent that was - March this year.another_richard said:
Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.Pulpstar said:What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?
The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.
0 -
Interesting explanation for the violence of the Grenfell conflagration:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-414662810 -
Rudd did very badly in the Frank Luntz Con leaders focus group on Sunday Politics.
5 options were presented:
Hammond and Rudd were eliminated first - neither considered remotely leadership potential.
Boris came 3rd.
Final was Davis v Rees-Mogg - which ended in a tie.
However, Davis, R-M and Boris were all considered entirely plausible.
Hammond and Rudd were not.
Rudd widely considered to be a solid number 2, not a leader.0 -
IOS 11?TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.Benpointer said:
Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914965311346102272
Next you'll be talking about Al Gore Rhythms
0 -
And maybe by the claims that she didn't have a mandate of her own and was a 'Poundshop Gordon Brown' for not having the courage to call an electionMikeSmithson said:
Disagree. It was a vanity trip encouraged by DDavisanother_richard said:Now here's a thought I've been mulling over:
If the Budget earlier this year had been accepted without problem would there have been a GE ?
I rather suspect that May went for the GE because firstly she wanted more leeway for tax and spending changes and secondly she wanted a bigger majority for dealing with rebellions such as the Budget provoked.
0 -
I don't jump to conclusions and I don't feel the need to virtue signal. If you were right I would have been posting all that crap about his partner being some deranged anti-Trump activist that was doing the rounds earlier.TheScreamingEagles said:
But you've been getting exercised by some on the left being complete bellends over the attack, but you're quiet on this, I wonder why.MP_SE2 said:
I assume you have got me mixed up with someone else as I haven't speculated as to what the killer's motives were.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm sure MP_SE will be along shortly expressing his outrage.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh god I was joking about Alex Jones.... Apparently this one is false flag by antifa!
I am sure you are just tetchy, the last 12 months or so have been particularly difficult for you. No Dave... No George... No more chumocracy...0 -
Interesting figures but it's classic ' negative sovereignty '. Brexit will become as unpopular as EU membership became for the same reasons. It's the status quo and diverse groups who agree about nothing else will agree that the status quo is crap. If western democracies have reached the point of ' negative sovereignty ' where majorities can only be assembled to block or stop things but never to create or sustain things this is the future.0
-
In a word, or rather two words, Tim Farron. Plus if some vague semblance of sanity leaks back into the brains of left-leaning voters, Corbyn and his extremist cabal won't be able to repeat the trick of hoovering up all the left-of-Tory vote.kle4 said:Why should it? If it didn't in 2017, I don't know that anything dramatic will occur for them next time, even if some increase should be possible given possibly 12 years of Tory government. They couldn't even recover second in many former heartlands.
I'm not saying this is nailed on, of course. No-one knows. But it's a perfectly plausible scenario that the stars won't align for Corbyn - let alone any sucessor - as perfectly as they did in 2017.0 -
Er... stumped on both points. Do they relate to PB before BP?TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.Benpointer said:
Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914965311346102272
Next you'll be talking about Al Gore Rhythms0 -
Rudd's career history is problematic.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's what they thought in the run up to 2015. Instead her majority went up to 4,700.Benpointer said:
Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914965311346102272
If the LibDems recover a bit, and the Conservatives don't alienate their core vote next time round, she has a good chance of repeating the trick. Still, she's certainly in danger, and that's definitely a problem for any leadership bid.0 -
Fingers crossed. (Though depending on who if anyone succeeds him before then, I would not be so opposed).Richard_Nabavi said:
In a word, or rather two words, Tim Farron. Plus if some vague semblance of sanity leaks back into the brains of left-leaning voters, Corbyn and his extremist cabal won't be able to repeat the trick of hoovering up all the left-of-Tory vote.kle4 said:Why should it? If it didn't in 2017, I don't know that anything dramatic will occur for them next time, even if some increase should be possible given possibly 12 years of Tory government. They couldn't even recover second in many former heartlands.
I'm not saying this is nailed on, of course. No-one knows. But it's a perfectly plausible scenario that the stars won't align for Corbyn - let alone any sucessor - as perfectly as they did in 2017.0 -
So that's a no from you, you've been exposed for being a hypocrite.MP_SE2 said:
I don't jump to conclusions and I don't feel the need to virtue signal. If you were right I would have been posting all that crap about his partner being some deranged anti-Trump activist that was doing the rounds earlier.TheScreamingEagles said:
But you've been getting exercised by some on the left being complete bellends over the attack, but you're quiet on this, I wonder why.MP_SE2 said:
I assume you have got me mixed up with someone else as I haven't speculated as to what the killer's motives were.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm sure MP_SE will be along shortly expressing his outrage.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh god I was joking about Alex Jones.... Apparently this one is false flag by antifa!
I am sure you are just tetchy, the last 12 months or so have been particularly difficult for you. No Dave... No George... No more chumocracy...0 -
Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Overruled by May on that one. I thought those changes were a superb idea personally.Ishmael_Z said:
He didn't look very competent over the self-employed NI cock up; he is lucky that TMay reset the bar for incompetence so drastically that that episode has faded from the memory. I had to Google to remind myself how recent that was - March this year.another_richard said:
Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.Pulpstar said:What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?
The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.0 -
It would certainly provoke a big attempt at a decapitation. That might backfire, though.Benpointer said:
Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!TheScreamingEagles said:
Clearly it would be a big risk for the Conservatives, and that probably means it won't be Rudd.0 -
Or both.kle4 said:
I recall at that time wondering why so many people went after Hammond for that though - May is PM, unless people are telling me she didn't see the budget before Hammond introduced it, she must have known it was coming, so either one or both of them didn't realise it contradicted a previous pledge, or they considered the situation demanded it and then backed off when trouble arose. A choice between idiocy and cowardice.Ishmael_Z said:
He didn't look very competent over the self-employed NI cock up; he is lucky that TMay reset the bar for incompetence so drastically that that episode has faded from the memory. I had to Google to remind myself how recent that was - March this year.another_richard said:
Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.Pulpstar said:What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?
The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.
The Budget should have been a warning sign about the lack of proper planning and inattention to detail.0 -
So did most of us here IIRC.Pulpstar said:
Overruled by May on that one. I thought those changes were a superb idea personally.Ishmael_Z said:
He didn't look very competent over the self-employed NI cock up; he is lucky that TMay reset the bar for incompetence so drastically that that episode has faded from the memory. I had to Google to remind myself how recent that was - March this year.another_richard said:
Grey doesn't necessarily equal competent.Pulpstar said:What have we done to deserve the choice of Boris or Jez ?
The only one that looks remotely qualified to run the country from either of the big two right now is Phil Hammond.
But a few loud mouthed pols and journos stopped them.
I wonder if any of the Conservative MPs who were so against the NI changes lost their seats in June.0 -
Perhaps she's just genuinely trying to hold her seat at the next GE - given it (as Hastings) has been a bell-weather seat since 1983, I suspect she's wasting her money.MikeL said:Rudd did very badly in the Frank Luntz Con leaders focus group on Sunday Politics.
5 options were presented:
Hammond and Rudd were eliminated first - neither considered remotely leadership potential.
Boris came 3rd.
Final was Davis v Rees-Mogg - which ended in a tie.
However, Davis, R-M and Boris were all considered entirely plausible.
Hammond and Rudd were not.
Rudd widely considered to be a solid number 2, not a leader.0 -
As any resident of Sheffield Hallam will tell you, the Labour attempt to decapitate Nick Clegg in 2015 wins that title.Benpointer said:
Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!TheScreamingEagles said:
What made it so special is that Labour activists were so focused on Clegg they effectively handed the Tories several seats in West Yorkshire.0 -
Perhaps then picking Rudd would be a good choice - the chance to take down the leader distracting effort in many other seats, so even if they succeed, the Tories are triumphant. Party before leader.TheScreamingEagles said:
As any resident of Sheffield Hallam will tell you, the Labour attempt to decapitate Nick Clegg in 2015 wins that title.Benpointer said:
Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!TheScreamingEagles said:
What made it so special is that Labour activists were so focused on Clegg they effectively handed the Tories several seats in West Yorkshire.0 -
Yup.kle4 said:
Perhaps then picking Rudd would be a good choice - the chance to take down the leader distracting effort in many other seats, so even if they succeed, the Tories are triumphant. Party before leader.TheScreamingEagles said:
As any resident of Sheffield Hallam will tell you, the Labour attempt to decapitate Nick Clegg in 2015 wins that title.Benpointer said:
Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!TheScreamingEagles said:
What made it so special is that Labour activists were so focused on Clegg they effectively handed the Tories several seats in West Yorkshire.0 -
IOS was a London Labour activist who continually boasted about Labour's 'ground game' and how it was certain to bring victory in 2015.Benpointer said:
Er... stumped on both points. Do they relate to PB before BP?TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.Benpointer said:
Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914965311346102272
Next you'll be talking about Al Gore Rhythms0 -
Yes but to decapitate the PM - that would out-Portillo everything!TheScreamingEagles said:
As any resident of Sheffield Hallam will tell you, the Labour attempt to decapitate Nick Clegg in 2015 wins that title.Benpointer said:
Come on, if Rudd became PM before the next GE it would provoke the biggest parliamentary decapitation operation ever!TheScreamingEagles said:
What made it so special is that Labour activists were so focused on Clegg they effectively handed the Tories several seats in West Yorkshire.
(Note to Special Branch: I am talking about unseating the PM!!!)0 -
Ah thanks, I suspected something along those lines.another_richard said:
IOS was a London Labour activist who continually boasted about Labour's 'ground game' and how it was certain to bring victory in 2015.Benpointer said:
Er... stumped on both points. Do they relate to PB before BP?TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.Benpointer said:
Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914965311346102272
Next you'll be talking about Al Gore Rhythms
Well, I am sure TSE didn't make any rash predictions about the size of the Tory GE2017 majority, in the days before I joined the forum 0 -
This is a sentence i never thought I would write, but "start the week" on BBC radio 4 was interesting this morning. Specifically it included a discussion between Andrew Marr and someone from the BES on voter churn around GE2017. If anyone fancies catching up on Iplayer take note the unedited morning broadcast is longer than the evening one.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b096gjjh
Starts around 22 mins in.0 -
Interesting nod to Corbynism in the government's response to the Monarch collapse. £60m of taxpayers money upfront to cover flights home with costs reclaimed from Credit/Debit Card companies later if possible. Doubtless the coincidence with the Tory Conference will have sharpened minds but it's an interest approach to a free market failure. Big State response to protect customers who were owed nothing under Caveat Emptor but avoiding the moral hazard of saving the Airline it's self. The briefing has started HMG refused a bridging loan.
If they pull it off, and the early signs are it's working, kudos of sorts to the government. It's an I retesting triangulation between a PR fiasco and Corbynist Corporate Welfare.0 -
Oh, so many end up looking like fools, it happens to everyone at some point, but tone when making predictions that end up being foolish makes a big difference, particularly in handing having that egg on your face afterwards.Benpointer said:
Ah thanks, I suspected something along those lines.another_richard said:
IOS was a London Labour activist who continually boasted about Labour's 'ground game' and how it was certain to bring victory in 2015.Benpointer said:
Er... stumped on both points. Do they relate to PB before BP?TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like IOS between 2010 and 2015.Benpointer said:
Haha! That's going Labour next time then, for sure!TheScreamingEagles said:
She's hired him to help her hold Hastings and Rye.Benpointer said:
Rudd surely not secure enough in Hastings to launch a viable bid?TheScreamingEagles said:Oooh, Amber Rudd hires Sir Lynton Crosby.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/914965311346102272
Next you'll be talking about Al Gore Rhythms
Well, I am sure TSE didn't make any rash predictions about the size of the Tory GE2017 majority, in the days before I joined the forum
I have heard.0 -
Who does Grant Shapps tilt towards? Who are his allies?0
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Why is he a hypocrite?TheScreamingEagles said:
So that's a no from you, you've been exposed for being a hypocrite.MP_SE2 said:
I don't jump to conclusions and I don't feel the need to virtue signal. If you were right I would have been posting all that crap about his partner being some deranged anti-Trump activist that was doing the rounds earlier.TheScreamingEagles said:
But you've been getting exercised by some on the left being complete bellends over the attack, but you're quiet on this, I wonder why.MP_SE2 said:
I assume you have got me mixed up with someone else as I haven't speculated as to what the killer's motives were.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm sure MP_SE will be along shortly expressing his outrage.FrancisUrquhart said:Oh god I was joking about Alex Jones.... Apparently this one is false flag by antifa!
I am sure you are just tetchy, the last 12 months or so have been particularly difficult for you. No Dave... No George... No more chumocracy...0 -
The authorities have recovered several thousand rounds!!!!0
This discussion has been closed.