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I'm quite serene about it!Pulpstar said:
I'll buy the betslip at face + 40% if you're that worriedRichard_Nabavi said:
If she could kindly hang on until December 31st, I'd be grateful. I have a bet on it at just under Evens...Big_G_NorthWales said:Bloomberg saying Merkel is a dead woman walking and suggesting she will be gone in 6 months - really
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Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.0 -
Boris seems to be turning into the Kevin Pietersen of British politics - flamboyantly brilliant at times, but an increasing liability with his disdain for team conventions and a slave to his own egotistical impulses. Theresa needs to do what was hitherto unthinkable and send him packing to the County Circuit of the back benches.anothernick said:
BoJo's destructive and narcissistic cynicism is unparalleled in modern British politics. Lloyd George has some similarities, but at least in his early career LG was driven partly by a desire to improve the lot of the poor. Boris is driven solely by the need to improve his own career.Richard_Nabavi said:The papers are full of stories about Cabinet disunity and squabbling, which is fair enough. However, the only squabbler seems to be one Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson; everyone else seems to be on-message.
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Does Kim Jong Mad really think he can take on the US military?foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
*gets extra popcorn*0 -
Ri Yong-ho has gone Right Gung-ho.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/9123320353474109450 -
The_Apocalypse can be an eschealogical one or a very real one.The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.0 -
As I have said before the frightening thing is the nearness of those involved.The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.
I have flown over Guam on the way to Toyko from Sydney and have been on a cruise which landed on Japan's North Island, sailed on to Vladivostock,(Russia), then sailed just off the North Korean coast to South Korea and then called at three Chinese ports finally arriving in Beijing.
The whole theatre is relatively small and any outbreak would or could involve all the Countries in the above paragraph.
It does not bear thinking about0 -
I don't.MarqueeMark said:
I think whenever the next election is held, the message "Brexit was hard fought - but Britain is through that, full of optimism and fighting hard to shape its place in the world. Don't let Labour piss it all up against a wall again" will have some considerable resonance.DavidL said:
I think that is the real question. I suspect most will still want the Tories out, especially after 12 years. And if the Conservatives continue with their current zombie state then those views may well extend beyond traditional Labour supporters.kle4 said:
Maybe, but will those soft voters really pass up the chance to vote the tories out next time even if labour are predicted to do better? The tories have been largest party for 3 elections, the left don't want it to be 4.basicbridge said:Corbyn looked as if he couldn't win in June. That wont be true next time, giving soft Labour voters pause for thought.
There is a whiff of hubris about the left.0 -
Or maybe 'hope not' !!!Recidivist said:
I don't.MarqueeMark said:
I think whenever the next election is held, the message "Brexit was hard fought - but Britain is through that, full of optimism and fighting hard to shape its place in the world. Don't let Labour piss it all up against a wall again" will have some considerable resonance.DavidL said:
I think that is the real question. I suspect most will still want the Tories out, especially after 12 years. And if the Conservatives continue with their current zombie state then those views may well extend beyond traditional Labour supporters.kle4 said:
Maybe, but will those soft voters really pass up the chance to vote the tories out next time even if labour are predicted to do better? The tories have been largest party for 3 elections, the left don't want it to be 4.basicbridge said:Corbyn looked as if he couldn't win in June. That wont be true next time, giving soft Labour voters pause for thought.
There is a whiff of hubris about the left.0 -
We'd better not. And what could we do at this distance?The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.
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And of all the Presidents to have at this moment in time, the world has Trump in the WH....Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I have said before the frightening thing is the nearness of those involved.The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.
I have flown over Guam on the way to Toyko from Sydney and have been on a cruise which landed on Japan's North Island, sailed on to Vladivostock,(Russia), then sailed just off the North Korean coast to South Korea and then called at three Chinese ports finally arriving in Beijing.
The whole theatre is relatively small and any outbreak would or could involve all the Countries in the above paragraph.
It does not bear thinking about
We have to hope someone doesn't let this situation escalate any further....0 -
Indeed. It is one of the weaknesses of FPTP that I am in my fifties and never cast a vote where I have been less than 99% certain of who would win.Andy_Cooke said:
Sounds like there's no utility in you voting for anyone.dixiedean said:
Indeed. I am one of those people. Although I will get a Tory MP whatever I do, short of moving, The choice is massive majority or large majority. There is absolutely no utility in me voting LD, no matter how many dodgy bar charts they produce.kle4 said:
If they are anti tories first there is no poont doing that on most places even in the sw. I think the desire to get out the tories will eclipse concerns about labour, when push comes to shove.HYUFD said:
They could vote LDkle4 said:
Maybe, but will those soft voters really pass up the chance to vote the tories out next time even if labour are predicted to do better? The tories have been largest party for 3 elections, the left don't want it to be 4.basicbridge said:Corbyn looked as if he couldn't win in June. That wont be true next time, giving soft Labour voters pause for thought.
There is a whiff of hubris about the left.
Con - they would win anyway, by a long way.
Lab - Con win anyway, by a long way.
LD - Con win anyway, by a long way.
...etc.
I suppose you could vote in such a way as to maximise one of the losing party's chances of retaining their deposit.0 -
SecondedThe_Apocalypse said:
And of all the Presidents to have at this moment in time, the world has Trump in the WH....Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I have said before the frightening thing is the nearness of those involved.The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.
I have flown over Guam on the way to Toyko from Sydney and have been on a cruise which landed on Japan's North Island, sailed on to Vladivostock,(Russia), then sailed just off the North Korean coast to South Korea and then called at three Chinese ports finally arriving in Beijing.
The whole theatre is relatively small and any outbreak would or could involve all the Countries in the above paragraph.
It does not bear thinking about
We have to hope someone doesn't let this situation escalate any further....0 -
I think one of the lessons of recent years is that fear-mongering no longer works. It didn't stop people voting Brexit nor put them off Corbyn. There has to be a positive message, and expecting a slap on the back for leaving the EU is very unlikely to cut it even with people who voted for it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe 'hope not' !!!Recidivist said:
I don't.MarqueeMark said:
I think whenever the next election is held, the message "Brexit was hard fought - but Britain is through that, full of optimism and fighting hard to shape its place in the world. Don't let Labour piss it all up against a wall again" will have some considerable resonance.DavidL said:
I think that is the real question. I suspect most will still want the Tories out, especially after 12 years. And if the Conservatives continue with their current zombie state then those views may well extend beyond traditional Labour supporters.kle4 said:
Maybe, but will those soft voters really pass up the chance to vote the tories out next time even if labour are predicted to do better? The tories have been largest party for 3 elections, the left don't want it to be 4.basicbridge said:Corbyn looked as if he couldn't win in June. That wont be true next time, giving soft Labour voters pause for thought.
There is a whiff of hubris about the left.
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Don't forget we're closer to North Korea than any major US city on the contiguous mainland bar Seattle...rottenborough said:
We'd better not. And what could we do at this distance?The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.0 -
BREXIT??dixiedean said:
Indeed. It is one of the weaknesses of FPTP that I am in my fifties and never cast a vote where I have been less than 99% certain of who would win.Andy_Cooke said:
Sounds like there's no utility in you voting for anyone.dixiedean said:
Indeed. I am one of those people. Although I will get a Tory MP whatever I do, short of moving, The choice is massive majority or large majority. There is absolutely no utility in me voting LD, no matter how many dodgy bar charts they produce.kle4 said:
If they are anti tories first there is no poont doing that on most places even in the sw. I think the desire to get out the tories will eclipse concerns about labour, when push comes to shove.HYUFD said:
They could vote LDkle4 said:
Maybe, but will those soft voters really pass up the chance to vote the tories out next time even if labour are predicted to do better? The tories have been largest party for 3 elections, the left don't want it to be 4.basicbridge said:Corbyn looked as if he couldn't win in June. That wont be true next time, giving soft Labour voters pause for thought.
There is a whiff of hubris about the left.
Con - they would win anyway, by a long way.
Lab - Con win anyway, by a long way.
LD - Con win anyway, by a long way.
...etc.
I suppose you could vote in such a way as to maximise one of the losing party's chances of retaining their deposit.0 -
If we are being honest it is not possible for any of us to be certain of anything. Who would have thought we would wake up this morning to Merkel having a worse result than May and Bloomberg predicting she will be gone in six months.Recidivist said:
I think one of the lessons of recent years is that fear-mongering no longer works. It didn't stop people voting Brexit nor put them off Corbyn. There has to be a positive message, and expecting a slap on the back for leaving the EU is very unlikely to cut it even with people who voted for it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe 'hope not' !!!Recidivist said:
I don't.MarqueeMark said:
I think whenever the next election is held, the message "Brexit was hard fought - but Britain is through that, full of optimism and fighting hard to shape its place in the world. Don't let Labour piss it all up against a wall again" will have some considerable resonance.DavidL said:
I think that is the real question. I suspect most will still want the Tories out, especially after 12 years. And if the Conservatives continue with their current zombie state then those views may well extend beyond traditional Labour supporters.kle4 said:
Maybe, but will those soft voters really pass up the chance to vote the tories out next time even if labour are predicted to do better? The tories have been largest party for 3 elections, the left don't want it to be 4.basicbridge said:Corbyn looked as if he couldn't win in June. That wont be true next time, giving soft Labour voters pause for thought.
There is a whiff of hubris about the left.
However, while we may differ on politics I am sure we both want the UK to succeed
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Yes. The cumulative effect of my and many others decisions to vote Labour despite our reservations has been to transform our MP from a man who issued edicts from Westminster on the unfailing wisdom of government policies, into one who attends fetes, cricket matches, church services and chats to shoppers in supermarkets. In short he has been behaving like a local MP.david_herdson said:
1. It adds to the national mandate.dixiedean said:
Indeed. I am one of those people. Although I will get a Tory MP whatever I do, short of moving, The choice is massive majority or large majority. There is absolutely no utility in me voting LD, no matter how many dodgy bar charts they produce.kle4 said:
If they are anti tories first there is no poont doing that on most places even in the sw. I think the desire to get out the tories will eclipse concerns about labour, when push comes to shove.HYUFD said:
They could vote LDkle4 said:
Maybe, but will those soft voters really pass up the chance to vote the tories out next time even if labour are predicted to do better? The tories have been largest party for 3 elections, the left don't want it to be 4.basicbridge said:Corbyn looked as if he couldn't win in June. That wont be true next time, giving soft Labour voters pause for thought.
There is a whiff of hubris about the left.
2. Over time, seats that were once safe can become marginals and then switch.
3. There've been more than enough elections of the last 20 (and a bit) years where supposedly safe seats fell to prove that parties that work them can get their reward when the circumstances are right.
It is remarkable what effect a 3.8% swing against you in the only English region to have swung to the Tories can do.
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Probably not but I wouldn't bank on it. N Korea has a tendency to declare everything to be an act of aggression. I think the release of South Park might have been.Sandpit said:
Does Kim Jong Mad really think he can take on the US military?foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
*gets extra popcorn*
That said, N Korea has in the past taken some very aggressive actions against S Korean forces, including sinking a ship a few years ago. I wouldn't completely rule out them shooting down a US jet if they thought it was in what they consider to be their air space (which is a flexible concept)0 -
Actually, I think America is playing this well.The_Apocalypse said:
And of all the Presidents to have at this moment in time, the world has Trump in the WH....Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I have said before the frightening thing is the nearness of those involved.The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.
I have flown over Guam on the way to Toyko from Sydney and have been on a cruise which landed on Japan's North Island, sailed on to Vladivostock,(Russia), then sailed just off the North Korean coast to South Korea and then called at three Chinese ports finally arriving in Beijing.
The whole theatre is relatively small and any outbreak would or could involve all the Countries in the above paragraph.
It does not bear thinking about
We have to hope someone doesn't let this situation escalate any further....
Any previous President would have folded and paid the Danegeld. And one day North Korea would get nukes and we'd be in real trouble.
Trump is refusing. We don't know if he's bluffing or not. (I suspect he is, but I don't *know*).
If North Korea shoots down a bomber outside of their airspace then there is a clear causi belli and the Russians and Chinese will cooperate. I don't think they will: they are just trying to ratchet up the rhetoric so that Kim Jong-Il doesn't look weak (in his own mind at least).0 -
Heaven protect us - McDonnell really does want to go the full Venezuela:
Consult on appropriate methods for returning the ownership and responsibilities of SPVs [special purpose vehicles] to the public sector, with shares-for-bonds nationalisation (via an Act of Parliament) the presumed preferred approach. Shares held in countries deemed tax havens may be compensated at a different rate from others. Differential compensation rates for equity held by pension funds will also be considered.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/sep/25/labour-conference-2017-sadiq-khan-says-uk-should-stay-in-single-market-for-good-politics-live
16:300 -
Agreed. There is no gratitude in politics.Recidivist said:
I think one of the lessons of recent years is that fear-mongering no longer works. It didn't stop people voting Brexit nor put them off Corbyn. There has to be a positive message, and expecting a slap on the back for leaving the EU is very unlikely to cut it even with people who voted for it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe 'hope not' !!!Recidivist said:
I don't.MarqueeMark said:
I think whenever the next election is held, the message "Brexit was hard fought - but Britain is through that, full of optimism and fighting hard to shape its place in the world. Don't let Labour piss it all up against a wall again" will have some considerable resonance.DavidL said:
I think that is the real question. I suspect most will still want the Tories out, especially after 12 years. And if the Conservatives continue with their current zombie state then those views may well extend beyond traditional Labour supporters.kle4 said:
Maybe, but will those soft voters really pass up the chance to vote the tories out next time even if labour are predicted to do better? The tories have been largest party for 3 elections, the left don't want it to be 4.basicbridge said:Corbyn looked as if he couldn't win in June. That wont be true next time, giving soft Labour voters pause for thought.
There is a whiff of hubris about the left.0 -
*Charles said:
Or there is the gun to your head approach.Richard_Nabavi said:
There was nothing at all wrong with PFI, when used properly and negotiated sensibly. However, Blair and Brown were completely uninterested in value for money, they just wanted to be able to boast about zillions of pounds of 'investment'. Unsurprisingly, the civil servants followed the lead which their political masters gave them, and equally unsurprisingly, companies like Capita (headed by big Labour donor Rod Eldridge) obliged.DavidL said:I don't think anyone can seriously dispute that PFI was one of the worst and financially disastrous policies of recent times. Its only competitor could be the current University fees program. Both will have seriously adverse effects on demand and available resources for decades to come. Both arise from politicians fundamental dishonesty and desire to give people something for nothing while kicking the can down the road. Both of our major parties are tarnished with both policies. It is not a happy state of affairs.
The key point now is that the money has already been wasted. Bringing PFI contracts back in-house can only be done in one of two ways. Either the government pays full market value for them, in which case there is zero advantage for the taxpayer, or you renege on the contract and confiscate some or all of the value of the contracts, in which case you damage the UK's credit worthiness. Presumably McDonnell intends the latter.
Renegotiate or never expect a to win another government contract again
* not allowed for the next 4 years or until final Brexit....
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If we could cash the metaphor, what is the literal equivalent of "paying the Danegeld" here?Charles said:
Actually, I think America is playing this well.The_Apocalypse said:
And of all the Presidents to have at this moment in time, the world has Trump in the WH....Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I have said before the frightening thing is the nearness of those involved.The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.
I have flown over Guam on the way to Toyko from Sydney and have been on a cruise which landed on Japan's North Island, sailed on to Vladivostock,(Russia), then sailed just off the North Korean coast to South Korea and then called at three Chinese ports finally arriving in Beijing.
The whole theatre is relatively small and any outbreak would or could involve all the Countries in the above paragraph.
It does not bear thinking about
We have to hope someone doesn't let this situation escalate any further....
Any previous President would have folded and paid the Danegeld. And one day North Korea would get nukes and we'd be in real trouble.
Trump is refusing. We don't know if he's bluffing or not. (I suspect he is, but I don't *know*).
If North Korea shoots down a bomber outside of their airspace then there is a clear causi belli and the Russians and Chinese will cooperate. I don't think they will: they are just trying to ratchet up the rhetoric so that Kim Jong-Il doesn't look weak (in his own mind at least).0 -
Sorry.sarissa said:
*Charles said:
Or there is the gun to your head approach.Richard_Nabavi said:
There was nothing at all wrong with PFI, when used properly and negotiated sensibly. However, Blair and Brown were completely uninterested in value for money, they just wanted to be able to boast about zillions of pounds of 'investment'. Unsurprisingly, the civil servants followed the lead which their political masters gave them, and equally unsurprisingly, companies like Capita (headed by big Labour donor Rod Eldridge) obliged.DavidL said:I don't think anyone can seriously dispute that PFI was one of the worst and financially disastrous policies of recent times. Its only competitor could be the current University fees program. Both will have seriously adverse effects on demand and available resources for decades to come. Both arise from politicians fundamental dishonesty and desire to give people something for nothing while kicking the can down the road. Both of our major parties are tarnished with both policies. It is not a happy state of affairs.
The key point now is that the money has already been wasted. Bringing PFI contracts back in-house can only be done in one of two ways. Either the government pays full market value for them, in which case there is zero advantage for the taxpayer, or you renege on the contract and confiscate some or all of the value of the contracts, in which case you damage the UK's credit worthiness. Presumably McDonnell intends the latter.
Renegotiate or never expect a to win another government contract again
* not allowed for the next 4 years or until final Brexit....
You can, of course, submit a bid and will be treated equally with everyone else. Honest.0 -
FPTP election, I meant. Incidentally that applies to national and local elections.bigjohnowls said:
BREXIT??dixiedean said:
Indeed. It is one of the weaknesses of FPTP that I am in my fifties and never cast a vote where I have been less than 99% certain of who would win.Andy_Cooke said:
Sounds like there's no utility in you voting for anyone.dixiedean said:
Indeed. I am one of those people. Although I will get a Tory MP whatever I do, short of moving, The choice is massive majority or large majority. There is absolutely no utility in me voting LD, no matter how many dodgy bar charts they produce.kle4 said:
If they are anti tories first there is no poont doing that on most places even in the sw. I think the desire to get out the tories will eclipse concerns about labour, when push comes to shove.HYUFD said:
They could vote LDkle4 said:
Maybe, but will those soft voters really pass up the chance to vote the tories out next time even if labour are predicted to do better? The tories have been largest party for 3 elections, the left don't want it to be 4.basicbridge said:Corbyn looked as if he couldn't win in June. That wont be true next time, giving soft Labour voters pause for thought.
There is a whiff of hubris about the left.
Con - they would win anyway, by a long way.
Lab - Con win anyway, by a long way.
LD - Con win anyway, by a long way.
...etc.
I suppose you could vote in such a way as to maximise one of the losing party's chances of retaining their deposit.0 -
In the past NK has, on multiple occasions, agreed to slow down their nuclear development programme in return for aid.Ishmael_Z said:
If we could cash the metaphor, what is the literal equivalent of "paying the Danegeld" here?Charles said:
Actually, I think America is playing this well.The_Apocalypse said:
And of all the Presidents to have at this moment in time, the world has Trump in the WH....Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I have said before the frightening thing is the nearness of those involved.The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.
I have flown over Guam on the way to Toyko from Sydney and have been on a cruise which landed on Japan's North Island, sailed on to Vladivostock,(Russia), then sailed just off the North Korean coast to South Korea and then called at three Chinese ports finally arriving in Beijing.
The whole theatre is relatively small and any outbreak would or could involve all the Countries in the above paragraph.
It does not bear thinking about
We have to hope someone doesn't let this situation escalate any further....
Any previous President would have folded and paid the Danegeld. And one day North Korea would get nukes and we'd be in real trouble.
Trump is refusing. We don't know if he's bluffing or not. (I suspect he is, but I don't *know*).
If North Korea shoots down a bomber outside of their airspace then there is a clear causi belli and the Russians and Chinese will cooperate. I don't think they will: they are just trying to ratchet up the rhetoric so that Kim Jong-Il doesn't look weak (in his own mind at least).0 -
WTF really? so if you're a personal investor you get f**ked over compared with others. Just make the rules up as you go. Clearly all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.Richard_Nabavi said:Heaven protect us - McDonnell really does want to go the full Venezuela:
. Differential compensation rates for equity held by pension funds will also be considered.
16:30
Labour really are a menance.
0 -
What Trump has inherited is the consequnce of eight years of that nice Mr Obama - a man so ineffectual his legacy is North Korea with the H-bomb. Well worth his Nobel Prize. Not.Charles said:
Actually, I think America is playing this well.The_Apocalypse said:
And of all the Presidents to have at this moment in time, the world has Trump in the WH....Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I have said before the frightening thing is the nearness of those involved.The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.
I have flown over Guam on the way to Toyko from Sydney and have been on a cruise which landed on Japan's North Island, sailed on to Vladivostock,(Russia), then sailed just off the North Korean coast to South Korea and then called at three Chinese ports finally arriving in Beijing.
The whole theatre is relatively small and any outbreak would or could involve all the Countries in the above paragraph.
It does not bear thinking about
We have to hope someone doesn't let this situation escalate any further....
Any previous President would have folded and paid the Danegeld. And one day North Korea would get nukes and we'd be in real trouble.
Trump is refusing. We don't know if he's bluffing or not. (I suspect he is, but I don't *know*).
If North Korea shoots down a bomber outside of their airspace then there is a clear causi belli and the Russians and Chinese will cooperate. I don't think they will: they are just trying to ratchet up the rhetoric so that Kim Jong-Il doesn't look weak (in his own mind at least).
0 -
What a choice: a Tory party incapable of delivering a decent Brexit because it is so conflicted internally, thus causing significant long-term harm to the UK and its economy; and a Labour party uniting behind a set of policies that are guaranteed to cause significant, long-term harm to the UK economy.
We are in a real pickle. Rejoice. Or flee!!0 -
Charles said:
Actually, I think America is playing this well.The_Apocalypse said:
And of all the Presidents to have at this moment in time, the world has Trump in the WH....Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I have said before the frightening thing is the nearness of those involved.The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.
I have flown over Guam on the way to Toyko from Sydney and have been on a cruise which landed on Japan's North Island, sailed on to Vladivostock,(Russia), then sailed just off the North Korean coast to South Korea and then called at three Chinese ports finally arriving in Beijing.
The whole theatre is relatively small and any outbreak would or could involve all the Countries in the above paragraph.
It does not bear thinking about
We have to hope someone doesn't let this situation escalate any further....
Any previous President would have folded and paid the Danegeld. And one day North Korea would get nukes and we'd be in real trouble.
Trump is refusing. We don't know if he's bluffing or not. (I suspect he is, but I don't *know*).
If North Korea shoots down a bomber outside of their airspace then there is a clear causi belli and the Russians and Chinese will cooperate. I don't think they will: they are just trying to ratchet up the rhetoric so that Kim Jong-Il doesn't look weak (in his own mind at least).
Kim Jong-Il is dead - replaced by Kim Jong-Un.0 -
Somebody has probably noticed that a load of union or public sector pension schemes have invested in these vehicles.Slackbladder said:
WTF really? so if you're a personal investor you get f**ked over compared with others. Just make the rules up as you go. Clearly all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.Richard_Nabavi said:Heaven protect us - McDonnell really does want to go the full Venezuela:
. Differential compensation rates for equity held by pension funds will also be considered.
16:30
Labour really are a menance.0 -
I think it's even worse than that, a quite spectacular ignorance pervades the whole thing. Just because an investment is held by a fund based in a tax-haven doesn't mean it's some evil plot by wicked off-shore capitalists to defraud workers. For example John Laing Environmental Assets, which owns some of these contracts, is domiciled in Guernsey. And guess who owns John Laing Environmental Assets? Yep, your pension fund, very likely, either directly or indirectly, as well as thousands of small UK investors.Slackbladder said:
WTF really? so if you're a personal investor you get f**ked over compared with others. Just make the rules up as you go. Clearly all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.Richard_Nabavi said:Heaven protect us - McDonnell really does want to go the full Venezuela:
. Differential compensation rates for equity held by pension funds will also be considered.
16:30
Labour really are a menance.0 -
They were certainly confident - 2005 was fought on the previous set of boundaries which were particularly favourable to them. The psephological arithmatic was skewed so heavily in their favour that they could win handsomely on a very modest vote share. They were defending a big majority and could afford to drop a fair few seats and still be entirely safe. LD successes were coming almost entirely at the Tories expense.rkrkrk said:
Were Labour overconfident in 2005? Not sure I remember really...
*Despite* Blair, Iraq, Cash for Honours etc., their stars were still pretty much aligned, and they damn well knew it.0 -
McDonnell and Corbyn going full on hard left at least put's it on record and I cannot see the voters going for this model anymore than making Farage PM.SouthamObserver said:What a choice: a Tory party incapable of delivering a decent Brexit because it is so conflicted internally, thus causing significant long-term harm to the UK and its economy; and a Labour party uniting behind a set of policies that are guaranteed to cause significant, long-term harm to the UK economy.
We are in a real pickle. Rejoice. Or flee!!
Two extremes and the hope commonsense will prevail.
The investors will be gone, pound will tank, and interest rates and mortgage rates will rocket within 6 months of a Corbyn majority government0 -
The serious money will see how Brexit pans out. If it goes badly, there will be a vast flight of capital from London.Slackbladder said:
WTF really? so if you're a personal investor you get f**ked over compared with others. Just make the rules up as you go. Clearly all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.Richard_Nabavi said:Heaven protect us - McDonnell really does want to go the full Venezuela:
. Differential compensation rates for equity held by pension funds will also be considered.
16:30
Labour really are a menance.
Not that Mrs. May needs the extra pressure to get a result. But the scenario facing any incoming Labour Govt. would be misery, cubed.
0 -
This is just the stuff that McD is prepared to talk about in public at this stage.Slackbladder said:
WTF really? so if you're a personal investor you get f**ked over compared with others. Just make the rules up as you go. Clearly all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.Richard_Nabavi said:Heaven protect us - McDonnell really does want to go the full Venezuela:
. Differential compensation rates for equity held by pension funds will also be considered.
16:30
Labour really are a menance.
What about "Corbyn and McDonnell’s more extreme and long-held ambitions", as Tom Harris puts it in Telegraph?0 -
Baked beans on toast for me and the missus then, she is determined to vote for him too !Big_G_NorthWales said:
The investors will be gone, pound will tank, and interest rates and mortgage rates will rocket within 6 months of a Corbyn majority government0 -
ALTERNATIVE VOTE REFERENDUM?bigjohnowls said:
BREXIT??dixiedean said:
Indeed. It is one of the weaknesses of FPTP that I am in my fifties and never cast a vote where I have been less than 99% certain of who would win.Andy_Cooke said:
Sounds like there's no utility in you voting for anyone.dixiedean said:
Indeed. I am one of those people. Although I will get a Tory MP whatever I do, short of moving, The choice is massive majority or large majority. There is absolutely no utility in me voting LD, no matter how many dodgy bar charts they produce.kle4 said:
If they are anti tories first there is no poont doing that on most places even in the sw. I think the desire to get out the tories will eclipse concerns about labour, when push comes to shove.HYUFD said:
They could vote LDkle4 said:
Maybe, but will those soft voters really pass up the chance to vote the tories out next time even if labour are predicted to do better? The tories have been largest party for 3 elections, the left don't want it to be 4.basicbridge said:Corbyn looked as if he couldn't win in June. That wont be true next time, giving soft Labour voters pause for thought.
There is a whiff of hubris about the left.
Con - they would win anyway, by a long way.
Lab - Con win anyway, by a long way.
LD - Con win anyway, by a long way.
...etc.
I suppose you could vote in such a way as to maximise one of the losing party's chances of retaining their deposit. 0 -
"There is no credit left" note to be left by Hammond?MarqueeMark said:
The serious money will see how Brexit pans out. If it goes badly, there will be a vast flight of capital from London.Slackbladder said:
WTF really? so if you're a personal investor you get f**ked over compared with others. Just make the rules up as you go. Clearly all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.Richard_Nabavi said:Heaven protect us - McDonnell really does want to go the full Venezuela:
. Differential compensation rates for equity held by pension funds will also be considered.
16:30
Labour really are a menance.
Not that Mrs. May needs the extra pressure to get a result. But the scenario facing any incoming Labour Govt. would be misery, cubed.0 -
I agree.SouthamObserver said:What a choice: a Tory party incapable of delivering a decent Brexit because it is so conflicted internally, thus causing significant long-term harm to the UK and its economy; and a Labour party uniting behind a set of policies that are guaranteed to cause significant, long-term harm to the UK economy.
We are in a real pickle. Rejoice. Or flee!!0 -
Hmm. My memory is that there was a massive panic half way through the campaign and Blair was forced to campaign with Brown to help persuade people to give them another go. Brown had been left out of stuff until then.SirBenjamin said:
They were certainly confident - 2005 was fought on the previous set of boundaries which were particularly favourable to them. The psephological arithmatic was skewed so heavily in their favour that they could win handsomely on a very modest vote share. They were defending a big majority and could afford to drop a fair few seats and still be entirely safe. LD successes were coming almost entirely at the Tories expense.rkrkrk said:
Were Labour overconfident in 2005? Not sure I remember really...
*Despite* Blair, Iraq, Cash for Honours etc., their stars were still pretty much aligned, and they damn well knew it.
Wasn't there an excruciating moment with a couple of ice creams?0 -
Meanwhile, in male privilege news:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-413895200 -
It is going to a few years before the next GE so time to stock up rationsPulpstar said:
Baked beans on toast for me and the missus then, she is determined to vote for him too !Big_G_NorthWales said:
The investors will be gone, pound will tank, and interest rates and mortgage rates will rocket within 6 months of a Corbyn majority government0 -
e.g. USS (Universities Superannuation Scheme) has an equity holding in John Laing Group, and incidentally in Severn & Trent Water..Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's even worse than that, a quite spectacular ignorance pervades the whole thing. Just because an investment is held by a fund based in a tax-haven doesn't mean it's some evil plot by wicked off-shore capitalists to defraud workers. For example John Laing Environmental Assets, which owns some of these contracts, is domiciled in Guernsey. And guess who owns John Laing Environmental Assets? Yep, your pension fund, very likely, either directly or indirectly, as well as thousands of small UK investors.Slackbladder said:
WTF really? so if you're a personal investor you get f**ked over compared with others. Just make the rules up as you go. Clearly all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.Richard_Nabavi said:Heaven protect us - McDonnell really does want to go the full Venezuela:
. Differential compensation rates for equity held by pension funds will also be considered.
16:30
Labour really are a menance.
https://www.uss.co.uk/how-uss-invests/the-fund/investments/uss-equity-holdings0 -
The same applies to the cliff-edge Brexit the Tories are leading us towards, I'm afraid. The only real difference is that Labour will be out within five years of taking power and the process of undoing the damage can begin. Leaving the EU with no deal is going to take a lot longer to sort out.Big_G_NorthWales said:
McDonnell and Corbyn going full on hard left at least put's it on record and I cannot see the voters going for this model anymore than making Farage PM.SouthamObserver said:What a choice: a Tory party incapable of delivering a decent Brexit because it is so conflicted internally, thus causing significant long-term harm to the UK and its economy; and a Labour party uniting behind a set of policies that are guaranteed to cause significant, long-term harm to the UK economy.
We are in a real pickle. Rejoice. Or flee!!
Two extremes and the hope commonsense will prevail.
The investors will be gone, pound will tank, and interest rates and mortgage rates will rocket within 6 months of a Corbyn majority government
0 -
Incidentally, I think those of us holding betting slips with the name Thornberry on them can be quite pleased:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/25/boris-johnson-ridiculed-brexit-paternity-test-emily-thornberry-joke-labour-conference
Although I haven't watched the speech (I'm not THAT much of a sad nerd), it does look as though she was feisty and funny, and went down well with the faithful.0 -
What we learn from history is that it is never the same twice ...... oh, and people never learn.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Herdson, if only there were some way to learn from history...
0 -
Yes, the ice-cream thing was quite toe curling. I don't recall any Labour panic though - the polls throughout showed them winning comfortably, there had been the Howard Flight debacle just before, Michael Howard got involved in some row with a Chief Constable over crime stats and there were dark mutterings about racist dog whistles. Also the Tories were proposing Oliver Letwin as Chancellor.rottenborough said:
Hmm. My memory is that there was a massive panic half way through the campaign and Blair was forced to campaign with Brown to help persuade people to give them another go. Brown had been left out of stuff until then.SirBenjamin said:
They were certainly confident - 2005 was fought on the previous set of boundaries which were particularly favourable to them. The psephological arithmatic was skewed so heavily in their favour that they could win handsomely on a very modest vote share. They were defending a big majority and could afford to drop a fair few seats and still be entirely safe. LD successes were coming almost entirely at the Tories expense.rkrkrk said:
Were Labour overconfident in 2005? Not sure I remember really...
*Despite* Blair, Iraq, Cash for Honours etc., their stars were still pretty much aligned, and they damn well knew it.
Wasn't there an excruciating moment with a couple of ice creams?0 -
Thornberry was very relaxed at the rostrum.Richard_Nabavi said:Incidentally, I think those of us holding betting slips with the name Thornberry on them can be quite pleased:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/25/boris-johnson-ridiculed-brexit-paternity-test-emily-thornberry-joke-labour-conference
Although I haven't watched the speech (I'm not THAT much of a sad nerd), it does look as though she was feisty and funny, and went down well with the faithful.0 -
John McDonnell should guarantee some decent returns on UK government bonds. They'll definitely be worth investing in given that Labour will be kicked out of office within five years of taking power.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's even worse than that, a quite spectacular ignorance pervades the whole thing. Just because an investment is held by a fund based in a tax-haven doesn't mean it's some evil plot by wicked off-shore capitalists to defraud workers. For example John Laing Environmental Assets, which owns some of these contracts, is domiciled in Guernsey. And guess who owns John Laing Environmental Assets? Yep, your pension fund, very likely, either directly or indirectly, as well as thousands of small UK investors.Slackbladder said:
WTF really? so if you're a personal investor you get f**ked over compared with others. Just make the rules up as you go. Clearly all animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.Richard_Nabavi said:Heaven protect us - McDonnell really does want to go the full Venezuela:
. Differential compensation rates for equity held by pension funds will also be considered.
16:30
Labour really are a menance.0 -
are you sure about that...David_Evershed said:Charles said:
Actually, I think America is playing this well.The_Apocalypse said:
And of all the Presidents to have at this moment in time, the world has Trump in the WH....Big_G_NorthWales said:
As I have said before the frightening thing is the nearness of those involved.The_Apocalypse said:
Holy Hell.foxinsoxuk said:
Apparently she doesn't like Nazis!The_Apocalypse said:Meanwhile....
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/25/europe/german-election-result-afd-walkout/index.html
What's going on here?
Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/912332035347410945
I hope we don't get involved in all this.
I have flown over Guam on the way to Toyko from Sydney and have been on a cruise which landed on Japan's North Island, sailed on to Vladivostock,(Russia), then sailed just off the North Korean coast to South Korea and then called at three Chinese ports finally arriving in Beijing.
The whole theatre is relatively small and any outbreak would or could involve all the Countries in the above paragraph.
It does not bear thinking about
We have to hope someone doesn't let this situation escalate any further....
Any previous President would have folded and paid the Danegeld. And one day North Korea would get nukes and we'd be in real trouble.
Trump is refusing. We don't know if he's bluffing or not. (I suspect he is, but I don't *know*).
If North Korea shoots down a bomber outside of their airspace then there is a clear causi belli and the Russians and Chinese will cooperate. I don't think they will: they are just trying to ratchet up the rhetoric so that Kim Jong-Il doesn't look weak (in his own mind at least).
Kim Jong-Il is dead - replaced by Kim Jong-Un.0 -
I wonder how Georgie will take Mutti beating May in the 'Dead Woman walking' stakes....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Merkel having a worse result than May and Bloomberg predicting she will be gone in six months.Recidivist said:
I think one of the lessons of recent years is that fear-mongering no longer works. It didn't stop people voting Brexit nor put them off Corbyn. There has to be a positive message, and expecting a slap on the back for leaving the EU is very unlikely to cut it even with people who voted for it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe 'hope not' !!!Recidivist said:
I don't.MarqueeMark said:
I think whenever the next election is held, the message "Brexit was hard fought - but Britain is through that, full of optimism and fighting hard to shape its place in the world. Don't let Labour piss it all up against a wall again" will have some considerable resonance.DavidL said:
I think that is the real question. I suspect most will still want the Tories out, especially after 12 years. And if the Conservatives continue with their current zombie state then those views may well extend beyond traditional Labour supporters.kle4 said:
Maybe, but will those soft voters really pass up the chance to vote the tories out next time even if labour are predicted to do better? The tories have been largest party for 3 elections, the left don't want it to be 4.basicbridge said:Corbyn looked as if he couldn't win in June. That wont be true next time, giving soft Labour voters pause for thought.
There is a whiff of hubris about the left.0 -
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/912351592116088833
Simon Cowell, Nigel Farage or someone from Corry to be next head of BBC?0 -
David_Evershed said:
Thornberry was very relaxed at the rostrum.Richard_Nabavi said:Incidentally, I think those of us holding betting slips with the name Thornberry on them can be quite pleased:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/25/boris-johnson-ridiculed-brexit-paternity-test-emily-thornberry-joke-labour-conference
Although I haven't watched the speech (I'm not THAT much of a sad nerd), it does look as though she was feisty and funny, and went down well with the faithful.
She comes over well in the HoC too - though that's no guarantee - ask Lord Hague.....0 -
Plenty of fizz at the Labour conference it seems.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/912351592116088833
Simon Cowell, Nigel Farage or someone from Corry to be next head of BBC?0 -
Jeremy Clarkson?rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/912351592116088833
Simon Cowell, Nigel Farage or someone from Corry to be next head of BBC?0 -
I'm afraid I am sad enough to have gone and looked this up in one of my many politics books.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, the ice-cream thing was quite toe curling. I don't recall any Labour panic though - the polls throughout showed them winning comfortably, there had been the Howard Flight debacle just before, Michael Howard got involved in some row with a Chief Constable over crime stats and there were dark mutterings about racist dog whistles. Also the Tories were proposing Oliver Letwin as Chancellor.rottenborough said:
Hmm. My memory is that there was a massive panic half way through the campaign and Blair was forced to campaign with Brown to help persuade people to give them another go. Brown had been left out of stuff until then.SirBenjamin said:
They were certainly confident - 2005 was fought on the previous set of boundaries which were particularly favourable to them. The psephological arithmatic was skewed so heavily in their favour that they could win handsomely on a very modest vote share. They were defending a big majority and could afford to drop a fair few seats and still be entirely safe. LD successes were coming almost entirely at the Tories expense.rkrkrk said:
Were Labour overconfident in 2005? Not sure I remember really...
*Despite* Blair, Iraq, Cash for Honours etc., their stars were still pretty much aligned, and they damn well knew it.
Wasn't there an excruciating moment with a couple of ice creams?
Rawnsley in 'End of the Party' says there was "rising panic" towards end of campaign in Labour (p.311) with Cherie Blair complaining that Philip Gould just kept giving Blair bad news all the time. Blair was very jumpy. Real worry of peel of votes to LDs or stay at home.0 -
not_on_fire said:
Jeremy Clarkson?rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/912351592116088833
Simon Cowell, Nigel Farage or someone from Corry to be next head of BBC?
0 -
BBC has Uber row ahead of North Korea accusing the US of war in its news order.
Now I know whether a minicab firm gets a license or not is important news, but..0 -
I think the no deal case is much less likely especially with the 2 year transitionSouthamObserver said:
The same applies to the cliff-edge Brexit the Tories are leading us towards, I'm afraid. The only real difference is that Labour will be out within five years of taking power and the process of undoing the damage can begin. Leaving the EU with no deal is going to take a lot longer to sort out.Big_G_NorthWales said:
McDonnell and Corbyn going full on hard left at least put's it on record and I cannot see the voters going for this model anymore than making Farage PM.SouthamObserver said:What a choice: a Tory party incapable of delivering a decent Brexit because it is so conflicted internally, thus causing significant long-term harm to the UK and its economy; and a Labour party uniting behind a set of policies that are guaranteed to cause significant, long-term harm to the UK economy.
We are in a real pickle. Rejoice. Or flee!!
Two extremes and the hope commonsense will prevail.
The investors will be gone, pound will tank, and interest rates and mortgage rates will rocket within 6 months of a Corbyn majority government
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. Also Denmark's foreign minister has broken ranks today saying the EU must make sure negotiations move forward0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, I hope you're not accusing the BBC of being London-centric.
0 -
Then again wasn't Tone also jumpy in 1997? Perhaps he's just the nervous type.rottenborough said:
I'm afraid I am sad enough to have gone and looked this up in one of my many politics books.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, the ice-cream thing was quite toe curling. I don't recall any Labour panic though - the polls throughout showed them winning comfortably, there had been the Howard Flight debacle just before, Michael Howard got involved in some row with a Chief Constable over crime stats and there were dark mutterings about racist dog whistles. Also the Tories were proposing Oliver Letwin as Chancellor.rottenborough said:
Hmm. My memory is that there was a massive panic half way through the campaign and Blair was forced to campaign with Brown to help persuade people to give them another go. Brown had been left out of stuff until then.SirBenjamin said:
They were certainly confident - 2005 was fought on the previous set of boundaries which were particularly favourable to them. The psephological arithmatic was skewed so heavily in their favour that they could win handsomely on a very modest vote share. They were defending a big majority and could afford to drop a fair few seats and still be entirely safe. LD successes were coming almost entirely at the Tories expense.rkrkrk said:
Were Labour overconfident in 2005? Not sure I remember really...
*Despite* Blair, Iraq, Cash for Honours etc., their stars were still pretty much aligned, and they damn well knew it.
Wasn't there an excruciating moment with a couple of ice creams?
Rawnsley in 'End of the Party' says there was "rising panic" towards end of campaign in Labour (p.311) with Cherie Blair complaining that Philip Gould just kept giving Blair bad news all the time. Blair was very jumpy. Real worry of peel of votes to LDs or stay at home.0 -
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...
0 -
Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, the ice-cream thing was quite toe curling.
It was worse than people think.
Immedately after the cameras stopped rolling, Blair suddenly turned and put his ice-cream down Brown's trousers while sporting an enormous grin, and encouraged the gathered crowds to point and laugh in unison.
He then forced Brown to go and buy another ice-cream from the van, and when he returned, Blair did exactly the same thing again!
In his autobiograpy, all Tony said about it was that 'it may not have been the best use of public funds'.0 -
Article in Daily Express on lineRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...0 -
The only transition we get will be on the EU's terms. Tory headbangers won't accept that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think the no deal case is much less likely especially with the 2 year transitionSouthamObserver said:
The same applies to the cliff-edge Brexit the Tories are leading us towards, I'm afraid. The only real difference is that Labour will be out within five years of taking power and the process of undoing the damage can begin. Leaving the EU with no deal is going to take a lot longer to sort out.Big_G_NorthWales said:
McDonnell and Corbyn going full on hard left at least put's it on record and I cannot see the voters going for this model anymore than making Farage PM.SouthamObserver said:What a choice: a Tory party incapable of delivering a decent Brexit because it is so conflicted internally, thus causing significant long-term harm to the UK and its economy; and a Labour party uniting behind a set of policies that are guaranteed to cause significant, long-term harm to the UK economy.
We are in a real pickle. Rejoice. Or flee!!
Two extremes and the hope commonsense will prevail.
The investors will be gone, pound will tank, and interest rates and mortgage rates will rocket within 6 months of a Corbyn majority government
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. Also Denmark's foreign minister has broken ranks today saying the EU must make sure negotiations move forward
0 -
http://www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/9193/a-hard-brexit-could-cost-belgium-over-42-000-jobsRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...0 -
Thanks. There doesn't seem to be much coverage of the report elsewhere, but I did find this:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Article in Daily Express on lineRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...
http://www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/9193/a-hard-brexit-could-cost-belgium-over-42-000-jobs
The important thing is whether that analysis is consistent with the analysis which other economists in Europe, and especially in the Commission, is finding.
It would be interesting also to see a country-by-country breakdown of the figures. My guess is that it would produce some surprises:
In terms of absolute figures, countries like Germany would be most affected, but in relative terms, Ireland, Malta, the Netherlands and Belgium have most to lose.
It's the small countries like Malta which have been largely ignored in the debate - but they have a lot to lose, and they have a vote.0 -
Sounds like you 'hope they won't'SouthamObserver said:
The only transition we get will be on the EU's terms. Tory headbangers won't accept that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think the no deal case is much less likely especially with the 2 year transitionSouthamObserver said:
The same applies to the cliff-edge Brexit the Tories are leading us towards, I'm afraid. The only real difference is that Labour will be out within five years of taking power and the process of undoing the damage can begin. Leaving the EU with no deal is going to take a lot longer to sort out.Big_G_NorthWales said:
McDonnell and Corbyn going full on hard left at least put's it on record and I cannot see the voters going for this model anymore than making Farage PM.SouthamObserver said:What a choice: a Tory party incapable of delivering a decent Brexit because it is so conflicted internally, thus causing significant long-term harm to the UK and its economy; and a Labour party uniting behind a set of policies that are guaranteed to cause significant, long-term harm to the UK economy.
We are in a real pickle. Rejoice. Or flee!!
Two extremes and the hope commonsense will prevail.
The investors will be gone, pound will tank, and interest rates and mortgage rates will rocket within 6 months of a Corbyn majority government
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. Also Denmark's foreign minister has broken ranks today saying the EU must make sure negotiations move forward0 -
Did the Express article mention the 500,000+ UK job losses?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Article in Daily Express on lineRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...
0 -
Report:CarlottaVance said:
http://www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/9193/a-hard-brexit-could-cost-belgium-over-42-000-jobsRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...
https://www.sites.google.com/site/vandenbusschehylke/CEPR-DP12303.pdf?attredirects=0&d=1
0 -
Another so called expertwilliamglenn said:0 -
We find that Brexit hits the UK relatively harder than the EU-27. In contrast to other studies, we find EU-27 losses from Brexit to be substantially higher than hitherto believed.CarlottaVance said:
Report:CarlottaVance said:
http://www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/9193/a-hard-brexit-could-cost-belgium-over-42-000-jobsRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...
https://www.sites.google.com/site/vandenbusschehylke/CEPR-DP12303.pdf?attredirects=0&d=10 -
YesSouthamObserver said:
Did the Express article mention the 500,000+ UK job losses?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Article in Daily Express on lineRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...0 -
Really ? I don't think even Britain will lose 1.2m jobs and we are involved directly. For the EU, it is spreadout over 27 countries.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think the no deal case is much less likely especially with the 2 year transitionSouthamObserver said:
The same applies to the cliff-edge Brexit the Tories are leading us towards, I'm afraid. The only real difference is that Labour will be out within five years of taking power and the process of undoing the damage can begin. Leaving the EU with no deal is going to take a lot longer to sort out.Big_G_NorthWales said:
McDonnell and Corbyn going full on hard left at least put's it on record and I cannot see the voters going for this model anymore than making Farage PM.SouthamObserver said:What a choice: a Tory party incapable of delivering a decent Brexit because it is so conflicted internally, thus causing significant long-term harm to the UK and its economy; and a Labour party uniting behind a set of policies that are guaranteed to cause significant, long-term harm to the UK economy.
We are in a real pickle. Rejoice. Or flee!!
Two extremes and the hope commonsense will prevail.
The investors will be gone, pound will tank, and interest rates and mortgage rates will rocket within 6 months of a Corbyn majority government
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. Also Denmark's foreign minister has broken ranks today saying the EU must make sure negotiations move forward
In the financial sector, the EU countries can only gain jobs as some are already.0 -
Final para of conclusion:CarlottaVance said:
We find that Brexit hits the UK relatively harder than the EU-27. In contrast to other studies, we find EU-27 losses from Brexit to be substantially higher than hitherto believed.CarlottaVance said:
Report:CarlottaVance said:
http://www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/9193/a-hard-brexit-could-cost-belgium-over-42-000-jobsRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...
https://www.sites.google.com/site/vandenbusschehylke/CEPR-DP12303.pdf?attredirects=0&d=1
Our findings indicate that there are no winners from Brexit, but only losers. Both parties involved would suffer substantial losses if denied free trade access to each other’s market. However, while the current belief surrounding Brexit is that especially the UK has a great deal to lose, our sector- level input-output approach clearly shows that the EU-27 also stands to lose substantially and considerably more than previously thought. The reason is that EU-27 production networks are closely integrated, which implies that tariff changes with the UK do not just affect direct trade bilateral flows but also indirect trade flows via third countries. These indirect effects are estimated to be very important (typically amounting to ca. one third of the direct effects), which substantially reinforces the trade destruction effects of Brexit.0 -
This is probably the most important article you can read on assessing the likelihood of a no deal scenario, concluding that on balance, for Ireland, no deal is better than a bad deal.
http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2017/09/24/is-no-deal-better-than-a-bad-deal-irish-edition/0 -
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Huh. Guess we better pack it in then.williamglenn said:0 -
1.2 million European job loses, 500,000+ UK and over 42,000 in Denmark. Goodness only knows how many German jobs are under threat.surbiton said:
Really ? I don't think even Britain will lose 1.2m jobs and we are involved directly. For the EU, it is spreadout over 27 countries.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think the no deal case is much less likely especially with the 2 year transitionSouthamObserver said:
The same applies to the cliff-edge Brexit the Tories are leading us towards, I'm afraid. The only real difference is that Labour will be out within five years of taking power and the process of undoing the damage can begin. Leaving the EU with no deal is going to take a lot longer to sort out.Big_G_NorthWales said:
McDonnell and Corbyn going full on hard left at least put's it on record and I cannot see the voters going for this model anymore than making Farage PM.SouthamObserver said:What a choice: a Tory party incapable of delivering a decent Brexit because it is so conflicted internally, thus causing significant long-term harm to the UK and its economy; and a Labour party uniting behind a set of policies that are guaranteed to cause significant, long-term harm to the UK economy.
We are in a real pickle. Rejoice. Or flee!!
Two extremes and the hope commonsense will prevail.
The investors will be gone, pound will tank, and interest rates and mortgage rates will rocket within 6 months of a Corbyn majority government
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. Also Denmark's foreign minister has broken ranks today saying the EU must make sure negotiations move forward
In the financial sector, the EU countries can only gain jobs as some are already.
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It's in the report.....Table 2Richard_Nabavi said:
It would be interesting also to see a country-by-country breakdown of the figures. My guess is that it would produce some surprises:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Article in Daily Express on lineRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...0 -
The study confirms that in all scenarios the UK comes out worse and with hard Brexit it comes out much worse. If the Express reported that, fair play.Big_G_NorthWales said:
YesSouthamObserver said:
Did the Express article mention the 500,000+ UK job losses?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Article in Daily Express on lineRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...
0 -
Threatened by a political decision of the Tory party to interpret the referendum as a mandate to leave the single market. The pressure on them to reverse that decision will become unbearable.Big_G_NorthWales said:1.2 million European job loses, 500,000+ UK and over 42,000 in Denmark. Goodness only knows how many German jobs are under threat.
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273,000 according to the report (hard Brexit scenario).Big_G_NorthWales said:Goodness only knows how many German jobs are under threat.
Correction: That's not the total figure. You need to look at Table 9.
The figure for Germany is 292,000, compared with 526,000 for the UK.0 -
Yep - even in the worse case scenario Germany seems to lose far fewer jobs than some have forecast.CarlottaVance said:
It's in the report.....Table 2Richard_Nabavi said:
It would be interesting also to see a country-by-country breakdown of the figures. My guess is that it would produce some surprises:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Article in Daily Express on lineRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...
0 -
All sides were clear a vote to leave involved leaving the single market.williamglenn said:
Threatened by a political decision of the Tory party to interpret the referendum as a mandate to leave the single market. The pressure on them to reverse that decision will become unbearable.Big_G_NorthWales said:1.2 million European job loses, 500,000+ UK and over 42,000 in Denmark. Goodness only knows how many German jobs are under threat.
0 -
You can't cherry-pick some things that were said during the campaign while ignoring others. The ballot paper had one question only.RobD said:
All sides were clear a vote to leave involved leaving the single market.williamglenn said:
Threatened by a political decision of the Tory party to interpret the referendum as a mandate to leave the single market. The pressure on them to reverse that decision will become unbearable.Big_G_NorthWales said:1.2 million European job loses, 500,000+ UK and over 42,000 in Denmark. Goodness only knows how many German jobs are under threat.
0 -
The Express reported the EU and the UK loses.SouthamObserver said:
The study confirms that in all scenarios the UK comes out worse and with hard Brexit it comes out much worse. If the Express reported that, fair play.Big_G_NorthWales said:
YesSouthamObserver said:
Did the Express article mention the 500,000+ UK job losses?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Article in Daily Express on lineRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...
Of course the UK will come out worse but tell that to the 1.2 million EU workers and their families if you think it will console them0 -
More proof that the Labour vote in June was not because of Corbyn but despite him with Brexit playing a large part along with the Tories poor campaign and appalling manifesto.
I think the hard left Corbynistas have misinterpreted the general election result as being an endorsement of themselves, and they are compounding their mistake with a display of hubris which puts Neil Kinnock's 1992 Sheffield rally in the shade. Meanwhile the Tories learn from their mistakes and look around for a new leader. All this could mean another big suprise in the exit poll at 10pm on general election day with many a tear shed by Corbynistas dreaming of singing "Oh Jeremy" outside Number Ten.0 -
I don’t think I am. Both sides were saying it all the big events.williamglenn said:
You can't cherry-pick some things that were said during the campaign while ignoring others. The ballot paper had one question only.RobD said:
All sides were clear a vote to leave involved leaving the single market.williamglenn said:
Threatened by a political decision of the Tory party to interpret the referendum as a mandate to leave the single market. The pressure on them to reverse that decision will become unbearable.Big_G_NorthWales said:1.2 million European job loses, 500,000+ UK and over 42,000 in Denmark. Goodness only knows how many German jobs are under threat.
0 -
The mandate was to leave the EU and you cannot do that while in the single marketwilliamglenn said:
Threatened by a political decision of the Tory party to interpret the referendum as a mandate to leave the single market. The pressure on them to reverse that decision will become unbearable.Big_G_NorthWales said:1.2 million European job loses, 500,000+ UK and over 42,000 in Denmark. Goodness only knows how many German jobs are under threat.
0 -
There is a new ICM poll. I don't know how much we can rely on them.0
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Of course it won't. But the point is leverage in negotiations. This study confirms the UK has little to none.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Express reported the EU and the UK loses.SouthamObserver said:
The study confirms that in all scenarios the UK comes out worse and with hard Brexit it comes out much worse. If the Express reported that, fair play.Big_G_NorthWales said:
YesSouthamObserver said:
Did the Express article mention the 500,000+ UK job losses?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Article in Daily Express on lineRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...
Of course the UK will come out worse but tell that to the 1.2 million EU workers and their families if you think it will console them
0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41198388 Trinity Mirror are in talks to buy to buy the Express.SouthamObserver said:
The study confirms that in all scenarios the UK comes out worse and with hard Brexit it comes out much worse. If the Express reported that, fair play.Big_G_NorthWales said:
YesSouthamObserver said:
Did the Express article mention the 500,000+ UK job losses?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Article in Daily Express on lineRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...0 -
Norway is in the single market and they are not in the EU.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The mandate was to leave the EU and you cannot do that while in the single marketwilliamglenn said:
Threatened by a political decision of the Tory party to interpret the referendum as a mandate to leave the single market. The pressure on them to reverse that decision will become unbearable.Big_G_NorthWales said:1.2 million European job loses, 500,000+ UK and over 42,000 in Denmark. Goodness only knows how many German jobs are under threat.
0 -
Best give up and go home then.SouthamObserver said:
Of course it won't. But the point is leverage in negotiations. This study confirms the UK has little to none.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Express reported the EU and the UK loses.SouthamObserver said:
The study confirms that in all scenarios the UK comes out worse and with hard Brexit it comes out much worse. If the Express reported that, fair play.Big_G_NorthWales said:
YesSouthamObserver said:
Did the Express article mention the 500,000+ UK job losses?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Article in Daily Express on lineRichard_Nabavi said:
Do you have a link for that?Big_G_NorthWales said:...
Interesting that Belgium's leading University has revealed 1.2 million ordinary EU citizens will lose their jobs if there is no compromise. ...
Of course the UK will come out worse but tell that to the 1.2 million EU workers and their families if you think it will console them0 -
So what? That's not much of a consolation for the Germans, and in any case the disparity is not massive.SouthamObserver said:Yep - even in the worse case scenario Germany seems to lose far fewer jobs than some have forecast.
More to the point, Germany is only one voice. Look at Ireland (loss of 2.59% of total employment), Malta (1.21%), Czech (0.93%). Belgium (0.93%). For comparison, the UK figure is 1.71%
Still what's 1.2m extra unemployed when you've already got 18 million?
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And free movement which is the red linesurbiton said:
Norway is in the single market and they are not in the EU.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The mandate was to leave the EU and you cannot do that while in the single marketwilliamglenn said:
Threatened by a political decision of the Tory party to interpret the referendum as a mandate to leave the single market. The pressure on them to reverse that decision will become unbearable.Big_G_NorthWales said:1.2 million European job loses, 500,000+ UK and over 42,000 in Denmark. Goodness only knows how many German jobs are under threat.
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This discussion has been closed.