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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Every day Mrs May remains PM she’s buying the Tories at least one week in opposition.
Westminster voting intention:
Comments
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Top of the pile!!!
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FPT
What is this fixation with bilateral surpluses or deficits?Beverley_C said:
When I last looked, we had a trade surplus with the USA. Do you really think that they want to give us trade terms to make our surplus BIGGER?Philip_Thompson said:Yet we lack a deal with America because the EU is incapable of reaching one. On our own we have a chance.
I suspect that any trade agreement the US offers will be intended to redress the balance in their favour, not ours.
A country that runs an overall surplus is impoverishing the current generation by building up assets abroad for the future. And a country that runs an overall deficit is running down its assets abroad for present consumption at the cost of future consumption. Sometimes either of those may be the right thing to do, but otherwise the benchmark is to aim for balance.
Bilateral balances simply reveal comparative advantage in the composition of traded goods of the surplus country wrt the deficit country.
The fact that we run a surplus in bilateral trade with the USA even though there are tariffs both ways does indeed suggest that the surplus will increase if tariffs etc are eliminated. But that is to the benefit of consumers in both countries. It may be to the detriment of some producers which had hitherto been protected behind the tariff (etc) wall, but why should that be a big concern for whichever government?
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FPT:
Not looking good for Anas Sarwar in the ScotLab contest. He seems to be getting the full-on Momentum-style character assassination treatment:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/sep/21/may-brexit-speech-florence-cabinet-meets-to-discuss-theresa-mays-florence-speech-on-brexit-politics-live
13:35
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Take it up with the President. He's the one who's fixated on it and he's the one we need to deal with.geoffw said:FPT
What is this fixation with bilateral surpluses or deficits?Beverley_C said:
When I last looked, we had a trade surplus with the USA. Do you really think that they want to give us trade terms to make our surplus BIGGER?Philip_Thompson said:Yet we lack a deal with America because the EU is incapable of reaching one. On our own we have a chance.
I suspect that any trade agreement the US offers will be intended to redress the balance in their favour, not ours.0 -
The alternative (leadership change without any transitional/permanent deal) might be worse.0
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Whilst I agree with TSE in his dislike of May I have to ask why he had not been making thread headers of the recent polls that show Tory support returning?0
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The false fixation has pervaded comments here too.williamglenn said:
Take it up with the President. He's the one who's fixated on it and he's the one we need to deal with.geoffw said:FPT
What is this fixation with bilateral surpluses or deficits?Beverley_C said:
When I last looked, we had a trade surplus with the USA. Do you really think that they want to give us trade terms to make our surplus BIGGER?Philip_Thompson said:Yet we lack a deal with America because the EU is incapable of reaching one. On our own we have a chance.
I suspect that any trade agreement the US offers will be intended to redress the balance in their favour, not ours.
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FPT
Not true.SouthamObserver said:
We only get deals from any country by giving more than that country has now. There is status quo for, say, Sierra Leone, or there is better than it has now. The UK, meanwhile, cannot afford the status quo, because we have worsened our trading situation by leaving the single market and customs union. We need deals. For the other side they are nice to haves if the terms are right.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.0 -
+1Charles said:FPT
Not true.SouthamObserver said:
We only get deals from any country by giving more than that country has now. There is status quo for, say, Sierra Leone, or there is better than it has now. The UK, meanwhile, cannot afford the status quo, because we have worsened our trading situation by leaving the single market and customs union. We need deals. For the other side they are nice to haves if the terms are right.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.
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Apart from Survation, who got the election spot on, I’m holding back on doing threads on voting intention.Richard_Tyndall said:Whilst I agree with TSE in his dislike of May I have to ask why he had not been making thread headers of the recent polls that show Tory support returning?
I prefer to focus on the supplementaries/leadership ratings, they’ve been better pointers than voting intention.
They’re not good for Mrs May as a general observation.0 -
On topic: I think this is wrong. If you switch leader too early, your new leader necessarily gets tainted with the inevitable compromises and cock-ups which accumulate over time. Any new leader will get a honeymoon boost, and if he or she is smart will be able to draw favourable (if contradictory) impressions. Better to let Theresa May take the flak, come through as a new voice, and go on into the election as a relatively fresh figure.
I think we have some recent examples of this: Theresa May herself, for a start, though admittedly her collapse from initial popularity was breathtakingly rapid. Also Cameron, whose popularity and reach faded between 2005 and 2010. Similarly for Ed Miliband.0 -
How does that make George Osborne look good?Richard_Tyndall said:Whilst I agree with TSE in his dislike of May I have to ask why he had not been making thread headers of the recent polls that show Tory support returning?
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The "sound judgement" is the one the Tories should be worried about. It is the one that strikes at the heart of the Brexit negotiations.
She will not be given the benefit of the doubt by most, when she needs to explain the details of the agreement/non-agreement.0 -
This Mercosur deal, when did it come into force?Charles said:FPT
Not true.SouthamObserver said:
We only get deals from any country by giving more than that country has now. There is status quo for, say, Sierra Leone, or there is better than it has now. The UK, meanwhile, cannot afford the status quo, because we have worsened our trading situation by leaving the single market and customs union. We need deals. For the other side they are nice to haves if the terms are right.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.0 -
I am not sure that we can ever trust the polls again, but surely Labour's ratings continue to reflect Corbyn's policies of cake today and cake tomorrow, which were never properly challenged during the election campaign.Richard_Tyndall said:Whilst I agree with TSE in his dislike of May I have to ask why he had not been making thread headers of the recent polls that show Tory support returning?
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Because the Tories need someone credible now to attack Corbyn.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: I think this is wrong. If you switch leader too early, your new leader necessarily gets tainted with the inevitable compromises and cock-ups which accumulate over time. Any new leader will get a honeymoon boost, and if he or she is smart will be able to draw favourable (if contradictory) impressions. Better to let Theresa May take the flak, come through as a new voice, and go on into the election as a relatively fresh figure.
I think we have some recent examples of this: Theresa May herself, for a start, though admittedly her collapse from initial popularity was breathtakingly rapid. Also Cameron, whose popularity and reach faded between 2005 and 2010. Similarly for Ed Miliband.
Mrs May is to damaged to do that.0 -
You’re obsessed with Osborne.CopperSulphate said:
How does that make George Osborne look good?Richard_Tyndall said:Whilst I agree with TSE in his dislike of May I have to ask why he had not been making thread headers of the recent polls that show Tory support returning?
He’s gone, he’s never going to be an MP again let alone leader/PM.
Move on.0 -
Further: Things might be different if a new leader now could rapidly restore unity, discourage the media from belittling every step of the EU negotiations, and introduce strong, coherent policies in other areas. But that's impossible as a minority government, with all the horrendously difficult and controversial problems of Brexit; any new leader would be just as weak and wobbly as Mrs May. There ain't no getting round that, without a new GE. So any new leader would get tainted rapidly in current conditions.0
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You're right - the EU has still failed to deliver on the deal.williamglenn said:
This Mercosur deal, when did it come into force?Charles said:FPT
Not true.SouthamObserver said:
We only get deals from any country by giving more than that country has now. There is status quo for, say, Sierra Leone, or there is better than it has now. The UK, meanwhile, cannot afford the status quo, because we have worsened our trading situation by leaving the single market and customs union. We need deals. For the other side they are nice to haves if the terms are right.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.
But that particular trade off was made about 4Q15 I think.
https://www.ft.com/content/8cc8f47e-7510-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca710 -
Sighs of relief all round at Nat HQ.Richard_Nabavi said:FPT:
Not looking good for Anas Sarwar in the ScotLab contest. He seems to be getting the full-on Momentum-style character assassination treatment:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/sep/21/may-brexit-speech-florence-cabinet-meets-to-discuss-theresa-mays-florence-speech-on-brexit-politics-live
13:35
https://twitter.com/kathsamsonitv/status/9108461231448760320 -
That’s not what your link says.Charles said:
You're right - the EU has still failed to deliver on the deal.williamglenn said:
This Mercosur deal, when did it come into force?Charles said:FPT
Not true.SouthamObserver said:
We only get deals from any country by giving more than that country has now. There is status quo for, say, Sierra Leone, or there is better than it has now. The UK, meanwhile, cannot afford the status quo, because we have worsened our trading situation by leaving the single market and customs union. We need deals. For the other side they are nice to haves if the terms are right.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.
But that particular trade off was made about 4Q15 I think.
https://www.ft.com/content/8cc8f47e-7510-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca710 -
Agreed, which is why I suspect May will be allowed to soldier on until after she loses the next election.Richard_Nabavi said:Further: Things might be different if a new leader now could rapidly restore unity, discourage the media from belittling every step of the EU negotiations, and introduce strong, coherent policies in other areas. But that's impossible as a minority government, with all the horrendously difficult and controversial problems of Brexit; any new leader would be just as weak and wobbly as Mrs May. There ain't no getting round that, without a new GE. So any new leader would get tainted rapidly in current conditions.
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On topic, it's not completely impossible for May to turn it around. Corbyn was doing a lot worse than May is now a year ago and he is now in a very strong position.
Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.0 -
Yes. That is the Tories' problem - a new leader might be a better communicator and more empathetic personality than May but they still have to deliver a Brexit that both Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees Mogg can support.Richard_Nabavi said:Further: Things might be different if a new leader now could rapidly restore unity, discourage the media from belittling every step of the EU negotiations, and introduce strong, coherent policies in other areas. But that's impossible as a minority government, with all the horrendously difficult and controversial problems of Brexit; any new leader would be just as weak and wobbly as Mrs May. There ain't no getting round that, without a new GE. So any new leader would get tainted rapidly in current conditions.
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The difference is Gordon Brown wasn't replaced before the General Election - May will be.
What matters in 2022 (as who'd be mad enough to go to the polls sooner if a reversal hasn't happened) is the ratings of the next PM.0 -
Corbyn needed a few tweaks and fine tunings to get a grip of his poor ratings....not to get tetchy under scrutiny for instance....CopperSulphate said:On topic, it's not completely impossible for May to turn it around. Corbyn was doing a lot worse than May is now a year ago and he is now in a very strong position.
Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.
May needs to replace her brain with the brain of someone who isn't robotic and shows a bit of personality.
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Brexit will be done and dusted by the time they change leader I imagine.anothernick said:
Yes. That is the Tories' problem - a new leader might be a better communicator and more empathetic personality than May but they still have to deliver a Brexit that both Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees Mogg can support.Richard_Nabavi said:Further: Things might be different if a new leader now could rapidly restore unity, discourage the media from belittling every step of the EU negotiations, and introduce strong, coherent policies in other areas. But that's impossible as a minority government, with all the horrendously difficult and controversial problems of Brexit; any new leader would be just as weak and wobbly as Mrs May. There ain't no getting round that, without a new GE. So any new leader would get tainted rapidly in current conditions.
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On baby names, there were 22 Donalds in 2015 and 9 in 2016.0
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Exactly. The lesson from Labour is if you've got a 'Gordon Brown' don't fight a GE with him (or her) - by 2022 Corbyn (if he's still there) will have been chatting to Mr Gravity for quite a while.....Richard_Nabavi said:On topic: I think this is wrong. If you switch leader too early, your new leader necessarily gets tainted with the inevitable compromises and cock-ups which accumulate over time. Any new leader will get a honeymoon boost, and if he or she is smart will be able to draw favourable (if contradictory) impressions. Better to let Theresa May take the flak, come through as a new voice, and go on into the election as a relatively fresh figure.
I think we have some recent examples of this: Theresa May herself, for a start, though admittedly her collapse from initial popularity was breathtakingly rapid. Also Cameron, whose popularity and reach faded between 2005 and 2010. Similarly for Ed Miliband.0 -
Corbyn was practically being carried away by the men in white coats in his own party before the election. It wasn't just a case of fine tuning.tyson said:
Corbyn needed a few tweaks and fine tunings to get a grip of his poor ratings....not to get tetchy under scrutiny for instance....CopperSulphate said:On topic, it's not completely impossible for May to turn it around. Corbyn was doing a lot worse than May is now a year ago and he is now in a very strong position.
Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.
May needs to replace her brain with the brain of someone who isn't robotic and shows a bit of personality.0 -
Hope it isn’t Anas.Theuniondivvie said:
Sighs of relief all round at Nat HQ.Richard_Nabavi said:FPT:
Not looking good for Anas Sarwar in the ScotLab contest. He seems to be getting the full-on Momentum-style character assassination treatment:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/sep/21/may-brexit-speech-florence-cabinet-meets-to-discuss-theresa-mays-florence-speech-on-brexit-politics-live
13:35
https://twitter.com/kathsamsonitv/status/910846123144876032
Anas is a nightmare with auto-correct.0 -
And... Corbyn has the lacklustre (and that's being generous!) record of the Tories in power for the past 7 years to boost his chances, whereas May has the same dragging her down.tyson said:
Corbyn needed a few tweaks and fine tunings to get a grip of his poor ratings....not to get tetchy under scrutiny for instance....CopperSulphate said:On topic, it's not completely impossible for May to turn it around. Corbyn was doing a lot worse than May is now a year ago and he is now in a very strong position.
Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.
May needs to replace her brain with the brain of someone who isn't robotic and shows a bit of personality.0 -
How do we get a deal with Mercosur by taking away something that it currently has?Charles said:FPT
Not true.SouthamObserver said:
We only get deals from any country by giving more than that country has now. There is status quo for, say, Sierra Leone, or there is better than it has now. The UK, meanwhile, cannot afford the status quo, because we have worsened our trading situation by leaving the single market and customs union. We need deals. For the other side they are nice to haves if the terms are right.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.
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To be fair, Margaret Thatcher's personal rating collapsed 1980-2. Also, Labour is ahead in the polls right now by less than Ed Miliband or Neil Kinnock. I think too that Theresa May will be gone long before the next election. Then Tories will not tolerate her jeopardising their tenure of power. I should add that a period of Corbyn in power might be good for the Tories. He would toxify Labour for a generation.0
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A Mercosur diplomat said the bloc hoped to strike a deal this year with the EU and said Brazil and Argentina wanted progresswilliamglenn said:
That’s not what your link says.Charles said:
You're right - the EU has still failed to deliver on the deal.williamglenn said:
This Mercosur deal, when did it come into force?Charles said:FPT
Not true.SouthamObserver said:
We only get deals from any country by giving more than that country has now. There is status quo for, say, Sierra Leone, or there is better than it has now. The UK, meanwhile, cannot afford the status quo, because we have worsened our trading situation by leaving the single market and customs union. We need deals. For the other side they are nice to haves if the terms are right.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.
But that particular trade off was made about 4Q15 I think.
https://www.ft.com/content/8cc8f47e-7510-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca71
Of course there will be an element of each side blaming the other, but I took the FT to be a generally accepted source.0 -
I don;t think May will get as far as Brexit. If it looks like a cliff edge there will be general economic and political panic which will sweep her, and probably the whole government, away. If it's an EEA scenario she will need to rely on Labour votes to get it through and this would provoke hard Brexiteer Tories to no-confidence her. Either way she will shortly join the long list of Tory leaders whose careers have foundered over Europe.CopperSulphate said:
Brexit will be done and dusted by the time they change leader I imagine.anothernick said:
Yes. That is the Tories' problem - a new leader might be a better communicator and more empathetic personality than May but they still have to deliver a Brexit that both Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees Mogg can support.Richard_Nabavi said:Further: Things might be different if a new leader now could rapidly restore unity, discourage the media from belittling every step of the EU negotiations, and introduce strong, coherent policies in other areas. But that's impossible as a minority government, with all the horrendously difficult and controversial problems of Brexit; any new leader would be just as weak and wobbly as Mrs May. There ain't no getting round that, without a new GE. So any new leader would get tainted rapidly in current conditions.
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Mrs Thatcher wasn’t tainted by actually losing the Tory majority unlike Mrs May.stevef said:To be fair, Margaret Thatcher's personal rating collapsed 1980-2. Also, Labour is ahead in the polls right now by less than Ed Miliband or Neil Kinnock. I think too that Theresa May will be gone long before the next election. Then Tories will not tolerate her jeopardising their tenure of power. I should add that a period of Corbyn in power might be good for the Tories. He would toxify Labour for a generation.
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Corbyn's ability to soldier on despite the mass resignations and press frenzy following the EU vote was one of the most remarkable pieces of political tenacity, courage and resilience shown by any leader in any democracy. To face down his internal opposition, win a resounding leadership campaign and then deprive May of a majority was quite astonishing.CopperSulphate said:
Corbyn was practically being carried away by the men in white coats in his own party before the election. It wasn't just a case of fine tuning.tyson said:
Corbyn needed a few tweaks and fine tunings to get a grip of his poor ratings....not to get tetchy under scrutiny for instance....CopperSulphate said:On topic, it's not completely impossible for May to turn it around. Corbyn was doing a lot worse than May is now a year ago and he is now in a very strong position.
Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.
May needs to replace her brain with the brain of someone who isn't robotic and shows a bit of personality.
I'm no Corbynite by any stretch, but I admire him. I cannot see any Tory leader who would beat him in a GE given present circumstances.
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Freudian slip from TSE?
Mrs May "Remain's PM"
(only kidding!)0 -
How many Sunils?tlg86 said:On baby names, there were 22 Donalds in 2015 and 9 in 2016.
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Baby names are always interesting.tlg86 said:On baby names, there were 22 Donalds in 2015 and 9 in 2016.
I remember that some enterprising PhD student used records of the number of babies christened "Arthur" to identify Riothamus as being King Arthur
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riothamus0 -
We assess the deal on a UK-only basis. If it's a positive then great. If not then we change it, or we don't sign a deal.SouthamObserver said:
How do we get a deal with Mercosur by taking away something that it currently has?Charles said:FPT
Not true.SouthamObserver said:
We only get deals from any country by giving more than that country has now. There is status quo for, say, Sierra Leone, or there is better than it has now. The UK, meanwhile, cannot afford the status quo, because we have worsened our trading situation by leaving the single market and customs union. We need deals. For the other side they are nice to haves if the terms are right.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.0 -
Maybe through tenacity May could do the same. Things change very quickly these days, I remember the omnishambles budget or that pasty stuff going on for ages and then one day it just seemed to disappear. It's mostly media driven bollocks most of the time anyway.anothernick said:
I don;t think May will get as far as Brexit. If it looks like a cliff edge there will be general economic and political panic which will sweep her, and probably the whole government, away. If it's an EEA scenario she will need to rely on Labour votes to get it through and this would provoke hard Brexiteer Tories to no-confidence her. Either way she will shortly join the long list of Tory leaders whose careers have foundered over Europe.CopperSulphate said:
Brexit will be done and dusted by the time they change leader I imagine.anothernick said:
Yes. That is the Tories' problem - a new leader might be a better communicator and more empathetic personality than May but they still have to deliver a Brexit that both Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees Mogg can support.Richard_Nabavi said:Further: Things might be different if a new leader now could rapidly restore unity, discourage the media from belittling every step of the EU negotiations, and introduce strong, coherent policies in other areas. But that's impossible as a minority government, with all the horrendously difficult and controversial problems of Brexit; any new leader would be just as weak and wobbly as Mrs May. There ain't no getting round that, without a new GE. So any new leader would get tainted rapidly in current conditions.
I'm hoping policy will come into the next election not just people thinking Corbyn is a strong man who has overcome the odds.0 -
No, but she was pretty darned toxic for the last couple of years because of the poll tax. John Major's victory in 1992 shows how with a new leader you can recover.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs Thatcher wasn’t tainted by actually losing the Tory majority unlike Mrs May.stevef said:To be fair, Margaret Thatcher's personal rating collapsed 1980-2. Also, Labour is ahead in the polls right now by less than Ed Miliband or Neil Kinnock. I think too that Theresa May will be gone long before the next election. Then Tories will not tolerate her jeopardising their tenure of power. I should add that a period of Corbyn in power might be good for the Tories. He would toxify Labour for a generation.
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TheScreamingEagles said:
You’re obsessed with Osborne.CopperSulphate said:
How does that make George Osborne look good?Richard_Tyndall said:Whilst I agree with TSE in his dislike of May I have to ask why he had not been making thread headers of the recent polls that show Tory support returning?
He’s gone, he’s never going to be an MP again let alone leader/PM.
Move on.
TSE:[distressed] What have I done?
Darth Gideon (aka Chancellor Osborne): You are fulfilling your destiny, TSE. Become my apprentice. Learn to use the Daft Side of the Force. There's no turning back now.
TSE: I will do whatever you ask. Just help me save Theresa's political career. I can't live without her. If she resigns, I don't know what I will do regarding "May is crap" threads!
Darth Gideon: To cheat political osbcurity is a power only one has achieved through centuries of the study of the Force. But if we work together, I know we can discover the secret to eternal AV Threads!
TSE: I pledge myself to your teachings. To the ways of the REMAIN Campaign.
Darth Gideon: Good. Good! The Force is strong with you, TSE. A powerful REMAINER you will become. Henceforth, you shall be known as Darth... Eagles.
TSE: Thank you... my Master.
Darth Gideon: Lord Eagles... rise.0 -
CopperSulphate said:
Maybe through tenacity May could do the same. Things change very quickly these days, I remember the omnishambles budget or that pasty stuff going on for ages and then one day it just seemed to disappear. It's mostly media driven bollocks most of the time anyway.anothernick said:
I don;t think May will get as far as Brexit. If it looks like a cliff edge there will be general economic and political panic which will sweep her, and probably the whole government, away. If it's an EEA scenario she will need to rely on Labour votes to get it through and this would provoke hard Brexiteer Tories to no-confidence her. Either way she will shortly join the long list of Tory leaders whose careers have foundered over Europe.CopperSulphate said:
Brexit will be done and dusted by the time they change leader I imagine.anothernick said:
Yes. That is the Tories' problem - a new leader might be a better communicator and more empathetic personality than May but they still have to deliver a Brexit that both Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees Mogg can support.Richard_Nabavi said:Further: Things might be different if a new leader now could rapidly restore unity, discourage the media from belittling every step of the EU negotiations, and introduce strong, coherent policies in other areas. But that's impossible as a minority government, with all the horrendously difficult and controversial problems of Brexit; any new leader would be just as weak and wobbly as Mrs May. There ain't no getting round that, without a new GE. So any new leader would get tainted rapidly in current conditions.
I'm hoping policy will come into the next election not just people thinking Corbyn is a strong man who has overcome the odds.
Come on....people looking at policy at elections. Be a first. The EU referendum completely kiboshed any idea that people seriously consider policy options at an election. They vote on feelings and who they like.0 -
In Thatcher's first years, her ratings collapsed -until the Falklands. Labour should be much further ahead. I think I am right in saying that no Opposition has ever won a majority at a general election without being 20 points ahead between elections. To be a mere 4 points ahead is not good for Labour. I would say that right now, it is impossible for Labour to win a majority at the next election. It might be quite amusing to watch a hard left socialist PM Corbyn impotent to put his programme into practice because he is dependent on moderate Liberal votes to get it through. The worst possible scenatio for Labour I still believe is for Corbyn to get his hands on power for a while.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, but she was pretty darned toxic for the last couple of years because of the poll tax. John Major's victory in 1992 shows how with a new leader you can recover.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs Thatcher wasn’t tainted by actually losing the Tory majority unlike Mrs May.stevef said:To be fair, Margaret Thatcher's personal rating collapsed 1980-2. Also, Labour is ahead in the polls right now by less than Ed Miliband or Neil Kinnock. I think too that Theresa May will be gone long before the next election. Then Tories will not tolerate her jeopardising their tenure of power. I should add that a period of Corbyn in power might be good for the Tories. He would toxify Labour for a generation.
0 -
LEAVE XX%tyson said:CopperSulphate said:
Maybe through tenacity May could do the same. Things change very quickly these days, I remember the omnishambles budget or that pasty stuff going on for ages and then one day it just seemed to disappear. It's mostly media driven bollocks most of the time anyway.anothernick said:
I don;t think May will get as far as Brexit. If it looks like a cliff edge there will be general economic and political panic which will sweep her, and probably the whole government, away. If it's an EEA scenario she will need to rely on Labour votes to get it through and this would provoke hard Brexiteer Tories to no-confidence her. Either way she will shortly join the long list of Tory leaders whose careers have foundered over Europe.CopperSulphate said:
Brexit will be done and dusted by the time they change leader I imagine.anothernick said:
Yes. That is the Tories' problem - a new leader might be a better communicator and more empathetic personality than May but they still have to deliver a Brexit that both Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees Mogg can support.Richard_Nabavi said:Further: Things might be different if a new leader now could rapidly restore unity, discourage the media from belittling every step of the EU negotiations, and introduce strong, coherent policies in other areas. But that's impossible as a minority government, with all the horrendously difficult and controversial problems of Brexit; any new leader would be just as weak and wobbly as Mrs May. There ain't no getting round that, without a new GE. So any new leader would get tainted rapidly in current conditions.
I'm hoping policy will come into the next election not just people thinking Corbyn is a strong man who has overcome the odds.
Come on....people looking at policy at elections. Be a first. The EU referendum completely kiboshed any idea that people seriously consider policy options at an election. They vote on feelings and who they like.
REMAIN YY%
0 -
I don't think the EU/Mercosur negotiation is a good example for deals that are already in the bag and which we would have to renegotiate. EU/Mercosur is still under negotiation and the main movement has taken place AFTER the UK indicated it was leaving the EU. It's hardly surprising the EU didn't bother to push our interests. In any case the main EU interest is to get access to government procurement on a non-discriminatory basis.Charles said:FPT
Not true.SouthamObserver said:
We only get deals from any country by giving more than that country has now. There is status quo for, say, Sierra Leone, or there is better than it has now. The UK, meanwhile, cannot afford the status quo, because we have worsened our trading situation by leaving the single market and customs union. We need deals. For the other side they are nice to haves if the terms are right.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.
Where it may be relevant is for new trade agreements. There are stronger reasons to believe the EU will get better deals that we do on our own. (As a bigger entity that is rule making rather than rule taking, the EU can and does negotiate trade agreements that are more comprehensive than country to country PTAs. These agreements are broader, deeper and more enforceable. Less trade diversion for local content rules because the free trade area is bigger. As a bigger entity the EU has more leverage for a deal that is favourable to its interests and those of its member states.) But there is a countervailing argument that flexibility means the UK can reach a deal more quickly. That extra flexibility doesn't necessarily apply to the other party however. They don't usually have any incentive to give us a better deal.
0 -
No.tyson said:
Corbyn's ability to soldier on despite the mass resignations and press frenzy following the EU vote was one of the most remarkable pieces of political tenacity, courage and resilience shown by any leader in any democracy. To face down his internal opposition, win a resounding leadership campaign and then deprive May of a majority was quite astonishing.CopperSulphate said:
Corbyn was practically being carried away by the men in white coats in his own party before the election. It wasn't just a case of fine tuning.tyson said:
Corbyn needed a few tweaks and fine tunings to get a grip of his poor ratings....not to get tetchy under scrutiny for instance....CopperSulphate said:On topic, it's not completely impossible for May to turn it around. Corbyn was doing a lot worse than May is now a year ago and he is now in a very strong position.
Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.
May needs to replace her brain with the brain of someone who isn't robotic and shows a bit of personality.
I'm no Corbynite by any stretch, but I admire him. I cannot see any Tory leader who would beat him in a GE given present circumstances.
I'm a Labour moderate who, like nearly everyone else, thought Corbyn would be an unmitigated disaster, but I have come to the view that people are looking for someone - anyone almost - who is not an identikit posh boy politician a la Cameron (and Miliband). The kind of observation that is made on the doorstep about Corbyn is usually about his ordinariness, his allotment, living in a "normal" house etc etc - nothing to do with his policies or past associations that exercise so many Tories. He is tapping into a rich vein of anger - the voters feel that they are footing the bill for the financial crisis whilst those who caused it continue to enrich themselves at the expense of everyone else. They want radical solutions, not more of the same, which both Labour and the Tories appeared to offer in 2015. The precise detail of what the solutions consist of is secondary - as long as it is different people are interested. It's the same kind of sentiment that led to Brexit - the voters want to kick the establishment in the hind quarters, and Corbyn is ideally placed to benefit from that.
The current Tory disarray over Brexit just reinforces these trends - people like me now face a choice between abetting economic suicide with the Tories and Corbyn - and Corbyn wins hands down in that contest. It is inconceivable that anything he could do would be as damaging as the Brexit cliff edge.0 -
As some wag said during the indy ref about a Bettertogether photo of him between Libdem and SCon worthies, 'there's Anas between 2 cheeks of the same arse'.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hope it isn’t Anas.Theuniondivvie said:
Sighs of relief all round at Nat HQ.Richard_Nabavi said:FPT:
Not looking good for Anas Sarwar in the ScotLab contest. He seems to be getting the full-on Momentum-style character assassination treatment:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/sep/21/may-brexit-speech-florence-cabinet-meets-to-discuss-theresa-mays-florence-speech-on-brexit-politics-live
13:35
https://twitter.com/kathsamsonitv/status/910846123144876032
Anas is a nightmare with auto-correct.0 -
Looks like we have "peace in our time" in the Conservative Party
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/21/theresa-may-has-backing-us-says-minister-marathon-cabinet-meeting/0 -
Theresa May could well have spent the whole summer being coached in human. There are classes for this sort of thing. Remember Mrs Thatcher's elocution lessons?tyson said:
Corbyn needed a few tweaks and fine tunings to get a grip of his poor ratings....not to get tetchy under scrutiny for instance....CopperSulphate said:On topic, it's not completely impossible for May to turn it around. Corbyn was doing a lot worse than May is now a year ago and he is now in a very strong position.
Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.
May needs to replace her brain with the brain of someone who isn't robotic and shows a bit of personality.0 -
Will she return from Florence waving a piece of paper?GIN1138 said:Looks like we have "peace in our time" in the Conservative Party
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/21/theresa-may-has-backing-us-says-minister-marathon-cabinet-meeting/0 -
-
She might!Beverley_C said:
Will she return from Florence waving a piece of paper?GIN1138 said:Looks like we have "peace in our time" in the Conservative Party
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/21/theresa-may-has-backing-us-says-minister-marathon-cabinet-meeting/
0 -
He got tetchy a few times under all the pressure ,but in the main kept his politeness during the onslaught in his first 18 months as leader.I never voted for him.However I was in York City Center the day he came to campaign.I was amazed at the crowds,as I have never seen that in my life in York.It did not get any coverage in the national media , but it was big news in the local media.As was his visit to the floods the year before.When he spent ages with people who had their houses ruined.People without an inbuilt hatred to all things Labour seem to warm to him when they saw the person in a more balanced climate of an election.I think a lot of people in Labour did not support him due to the thinking he had no chance , (me included ) that has changed.He has a chance , May gave it to him , and he took it , when all the best observers said he should refuse the offer of an election.It was the most amazing result I have seen from where he started in April to June 8th 17.It truly was astonishing when that exit poll came in.It shafted all those who thought they knew how politics worked in this country.tyson said:
Corbyn's ability to soldier on despite the mass resignations and press frenzy following the EU vote was one of the most remarkable pieces of political tenacity, courage and resilience shown by any leader in any democracy. To face down his internal opposition, win a resounding leadership campaign and then deprive May of a majority was quite astonishing.CopperSulphate said:
Corbyn was practically being carried away by the men in white coats in his own party before the election. It wasn't just a case of fine tuning.tyson said:
Corbyn needed a few tweaks and fine tunings to get a grip of his poor ratings....not to get tetchy under scrutiny for instance....CopperSulphate said:On topic, it's not completely impossible for May to turn it around. Corbyn was doing a lot worse than May is now a year ago and he is now in a very strong position.
Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.
May needs to replace her brain with the brain of someone who isn't robotic and shows a bit of personality.
I'm no Corbynite by any stretch, but I admire him. I cannot see any Tory leader who would beat him in a GE given present circumstances.0 -
Full speech here: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htmScott_P said:
"Our citizens have real concerns today – which we share – when the Home Office sends deportation letters or appears to defy High Court orders, as we read in the press."0 -
If that is true and the whole cabinet endorse the Florence speech that is the first sensible think the conservatives have done for a long time.GIN1138 said:Looks like we have "peace in our time" in the Conservative Party
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/21/theresa-may-has-backing-us-says-minister-marathon-cabinet-meeting/
It is very necessary to show the EU that the UK government is united behind the Prime Minister even if the opposition is not.
The polls do move around but at this moment they are not relevant
0 -
That’s awesome.Theuniondivvie said:
As some wag said during the indy ref about a Bettertogether photo of him between Libdem and SCon worthies, 'there's Anas between 2 cheeks of the same arse'.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hope it isn’t Anas.Theuniondivvie said:
Sighs of relief all round at Nat HQ.Richard_Nabavi said:FPT:
Not looking good for Anas Sarwar in the ScotLab contest. He seems to be getting the full-on Momentum-style character assassination treatment:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/sep/21/may-brexit-speech-florence-cabinet-meets-to-discuss-theresa-mays-florence-speech-on-brexit-politics-live
13:35
https://twitter.com/kathsamsonitv/status/910846123144876032
Anas is a nightmare with auto-correct.0 -
Predictable and not newsScott_P said:0 -
She did seem better at the UN yesterday but she is not good at public speakingDecrepitJohnL said:
Theresa May could well have spent the whole summer being coached in human. There are classes for this sort of thing. Remember Mrs Thatcher's elocution lessons?tyson said:
Corbyn needed a few tweaks and fine tunings to get a grip of his poor ratings....not to get tetchy under scrutiny for instance....CopperSulphate said:On topic, it's not completely impossible for May to turn it around. Corbyn was doing a lot worse than May is now a year ago and he is now in a very strong position.
Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.
May needs to replace her brain with the brain of someone who isn't robotic and shows a bit of personality.0 -
It's not news, but how many people really have really grasped the implications of this:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Predictable and not newsScott_P said:
Without a withdrawal agreement, there is no transition. This is a point of law.
I would like to be very clear: if we are to extend for a limited period the acquis of the EU, with all its benefits, then logically "this would require existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply" – as recalled in the mandate I received from the European Council, under the authority of President Donald Tusk.0 -
Barnier or "Barmier"?Scott_P said: 0 -
That's arse-someTheScreamingEagles said:
That’s awesome.Theuniondivvie said:
As some wag said during the indy ref about a Bettertogether photo of him between Libdem and SCon worthies, 'there's Anas between 2 cheeks of the same arse'.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hope it isn’t Anas.Theuniondivvie said:
Sighs of relief all round at Nat HQ.Richard_Nabavi said:FPT:
Not looking good for Anas Sarwar in the ScotLab contest. He seems to be getting the full-on Momentum-style character assassination treatment:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/sep/21/may-brexit-speech-florence-cabinet-meets-to-discuss-theresa-mays-florence-speech-on-brexit-politics-live
13:35
https://twitter.com/kathsamsonitv/status/910846123144876032
Anas is a nightmare with auto-correct. 0 -
Corbyn and Brexit reminds me of 1976 in music terms .The main stream hated it got all upset with the sex pistols.However by 1979 the were buying into the modified scene and buying albums such a parallell lines by Blondie.0
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Exactly. It's eitherwilliamglenn said:
It's not news, but how many people really have really grasped the implications of this:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Predictable and not newsScott_P said:
Without a withdrawal agreement, there is no transition. This is a point of law.
I would like to be very clear: if we are to extend for a limited period the acquis of the EU, with all its benefits, then logically "this would require existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply" – as recalled in the mandate I received from the European Council, under the authority of President Donald Tusk.
Stay
Cliff edge
EEA
There are no other options.0 -
No problem with that over 2 to 3 yearswilliamglenn said:
It's not news, but how many people really have really grasped the implications of this:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Predictable and not newsScott_P said:
Without a withdrawal agreement, there is no transition. This is a point of law.
I would like to be very clear: if we are to extend for a limited period the acquis of the EU, with all its benefits, then logically "this would require existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply" – as recalled in the mandate I received from the European Council, under the authority of President Donald Tusk.0 -
And we all know how "peace for our time" ended 11 months later.GIN1138 said:Looks like we have "peace in our time" in the Conservative Party
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/21/theresa-may-has-backing-us-says-minister-marathon-cabinet-meeting/0 -
Tomorrow has been built up as a very big moment in Brexit.
We need to wait to see what TM says, how she says it, and the reaction before we can praise her or condemn her.
Not long to wait and I will provide my own, as honest as possible, opinion on Theresa's future or not over the course of the next few days0 -
"Between elections" is normally 3 years into the term, not 3 months. A 4 point lead 3 months after losing a GE is very respectable. Would you like to bet against it getting larger?stevef said:
In Thatcher's first years, her ratings collapsed -until the Falklands. Labour should be much further ahead. I think I am right in saying that no Opposition has ever won a majority at a general election without being 20 points ahead between elections. To be a mere 4 points ahead is not good for Labour. I would say that right now, it is impossible for Labour to win a majority at the next election. It might be quite amusing to watch a hard left socialist PM Corbyn impotent to put his programme into practice because he is dependent on moderate Liberal votes to get it through. The worst possible scenatio for Labour I still believe is for Corbyn to get his hands on power for a while.0 -
But Hitler lost in the end...Benpointer said:
And we all know how "peace for our time" ended 11 months later.GIN1138 said:Looks like we have "peace in our time" in the Conservative Party
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/21/theresa-may-has-backing-us-says-minister-marathon-cabinet-meeting/0 -
What time is Mrs May’s speech tomorrow ?0
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Completely off topic. I don't know why I thought of PB when reading this
"Perhaps you’ll even reconsider trolling someone online regarding their political opinion, remembering that no matter how crass and inhumane a sentiment appears on screen, an actual human is sitting behind the keyboard pecking out their thoughts. I’m not arguing against engaging, but for the love of anything closely resembling humanity, argue intelligently.
"Because reading does in fact make us more intelligent. Research shows that reading not only helps with fluid intelligence, but with reading comprehension and emotional intelligence as well. You make smarter decisions about yourself and those around you"
To be fair to PB, it is one of the more civil sites on the internet for vigorous discourse of matters close to people's identity.
The full article is worth reading for those with an interest in how the brain works: http://bigthink.com/21st-century-spirituality/reading-rewires-your-brain-for-more-intelligence-and-empathy?utm_source=Heleo+Newsletters&utm_campaign=6c24eba7bd-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_09_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_85eb2ca8d0-6c24eba7bd-2169464130 -
TBH, the polls aren't horrific for the Tories at the moment. Then again, they also weren't horrific for them at this stage in the 1992 Parliament (1993 was the year it really went pear-shaped, with them losing by-elections on barely-believable swings and being in the 20s in voting intentions).CopperSulphate said:On topic, it's not completely impossible for May to turn it around. Corbyn was doing a lot worse than May is now a year ago and he is now in a very strong position.
Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.0 -
The EU cannot do any FTA now without the UK's sign-off, can it?Charles said:
We assess the deal on a UK-only basis. If it's a positive then great. If not then we change it, or we don't sign a deal.SouthamObserver said:
How do we get a deal with Mercosur by taking away something that it currently has?Charles said:FPT
Not true.SouthamObserver said:
We only get deals from any country by giving more than that country has now. There is status quo for, say, Sierra Leone, or there is better than it has now. The UK, meanwhile, cannot afford the status quo, because we have worsened our trading situation by leaving the single market and customs union. We need deals. For the other side they are nice to haves if the terms are right.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.
0 -
I definitely remember reading the concession on premium beef before the referendum because it was a factor that concerned me in terms of the ability to get good deals for the UK vs the EU as a whole.FF43 said:
I don't think the EU/Mercosur negotiation is a good example for deals that are already in the bag and which we would have to renegotiate. EU/Mercosur is still under negotiation and the main movement has taken place AFTER the UK indicated it was leaving the EU. It's hardly surprising the EU didn't bother to push our interests. In any case the main EU interest is to get access to government procurement on a non-discriminatory basis.Charles said:FPT
Not true.SouthamObserver said:
We only get deals from any country by giving more than that country has now. There is status quo for, say, Sierra Leone, or there is better than it has now. The UK, meanwhile, cannot afford the status quo, because we have worsened our trading situation by leaving the single market and customs union. We need deals. For the other side they are nice to haves if the terms are right.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.
Where it may be relevant is for new trade agreements. There are stronger reasons to believe the EU will get better deals that we do on our own. (As a bigger entity that is rule making rather than rule taking, the EU can and does negotiate trade agreements that are more comprehensive than country to country PTAs. These agreements are broader, deeper and more enforceable. Less trade diversion for local content rules because the free trade area is bigger. As a bigger entity the EU has more leverage for a deal that is favourable to its interests and those of its member states.) But there is a countervailing argument that flexibility means the UK can reach a deal more quickly. That extra flexibility doesn't necessarily apply to the other party however. They don't usually have any incentive to give us a better deal.
The more general point is that although the EU may be able to get a better deal for the EU as a whole than the UK can, because it is more tailored to the UK's interests then a UK only deal may be better for the UK than being 15% of a better EU-wide deal.0 -
You are a very fair commentator and this poll does show a 4% lead for labour and it may go up or down over the next year.NickPalmer said:
"Between elections" is normally 3 years into the term, not 3 months. A 4 point lead 3 months after losing a GE is very respectable. Would you like to bet against it getting larger?stevef said:
In Thatcher's first years, her ratings collapsed -until the Falklands. Labour should be much further ahead. I think I am right in saying that no Opposition has ever won a majority at a general election without being 20 points ahead between elections. To be a mere 4 points ahead is not good for Labour. I would say that right now, it is impossible for Labour to win a majority at the next election. It might be quite amusing to watch a hard left socialist PM Corbyn impotent to put his programme into practice because he is dependent on moderate Liberal votes to get it through. The worst possible scenatio for Labour I still believe is for Corbyn to get his hands on power for a while.
However, I know that many think Corbyn is the answer but he has not had any real scrutiny on his economics. Sky have been running a morning on students and their fees and only 29% polled agree they should be abolished.
Student fees is a very complicated subject and there are many aspects to it, but I give Corbyn the credit for raising it, but I doubt that free University fees for all will be the vote winner he thinks it is.
Also on social care labour say they will provide 3 billion for it but the annual social care cost is nearer 20 billion
There are many reasons why I think Corbyn is doing OK but that is more to the fact the conservatives had a dreadful campaign and Corbyn was not put under the scrutiny on economics than he should have been.
Brexit will dominate the agenda, unfortunately, but there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge before we can conclude that Corbyn is the answer to post Brexit UK0 -
Good piece from Nate wrapping up his review of the Presidential election.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/
0 -
Who'll win the next GE? Who knows? Betfair says 50:50 for most seats and that looks reasonable.
But Con chances will not be assisted by dumping May now. Brexit is bound to be difficult / awkward / controversial etc - so much better that May takes the flack and that a new leader comes in post Brexit to go into the next GE afresh.
And whilst this poll is very poor for May it's not great for Corbyn either (looking at personal ratings, not Party voting intention). It's far from clear Corbyn will be strong enough to win a GE, especially up against a better, fresher Con leader.
Con's chances of winning the next GE are also better by going long - make Corbyn look older, less fresh and give more time to sow doubts about him on the economy.
And if Con is going to go long, another reason for the next leader to come in later.0 -
About 3.00pm I believe but not certainTheScreamingEagles said:What time is Mrs May’s speech tomorrow ?
0 -
The England women's football team manager, Mark Sampson, is remaining comendably silent after being sacked.
Since he has not been found guilty of anything, expect a massive legal claim for unfair dismissal and reputational damage.
Revenge is a dish best eaten cold.
If only politicians could be so reticent ......... and ruthless.0 -
The Court of Justice would remain the ultimate guarantor of the agreement.williamglenn said:
Full speech here: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htmScott_P said:
"Our citizens have real concerns today – which we share – when the Home Office sends deportation letters or appears to defy High Court orders, as we read in the press."
0 -
Mr. Evershed, reticent and ruthless reminds of how Renault appears to have handled Red Bull.0
-
Too soon.TheScreamingEagles said:What time is Mrs May’s speech tomorrow ?
0 -
If you are at all interested in the Article 50 talks, you should read Michel Barnier's speech in another Italian city. Here it is in full It sets out from the EU point of view very clearly where the talks are at, what the choices are, what needs to be addressed and where the blockages are. Presumably if these negotiations are going to go anywhere, Mrs May or her minions will need to address in short order each point that Barnier raises.0
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Three months after the 2005 Election Labour had a 7 point lead.stevef said:
In Thatcher's first years, her ratings collapsed -until the Falklands. Labour should be much further ahead. I think I am right in saying that no Opposition has ever won a majority at a general election without being 20 points ahead between elections. To be a mere 4 points ahead is not good for Labour. I would say that right now, it is impossible for Labour to win a majority at the next election. It might be quite amusing to watch a hard left socialist PM Corbyn impotent to put his programme into practice because he is dependent on moderate Liberal votes to get it through. The worst possible scenatio for Labour I still believe is for Corbyn to get his hands on power for a while.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, but she was pretty darned toxic for the last couple of years because of the poll tax. John Major's victory in 1992 shows how with a new leader you can recover.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs Thatcher wasn’t tainted by actually losing the Tory majority unlike Mrs May.stevef said:To be fair, Margaret Thatcher's personal rating collapsed 1980-2. Also, Labour is ahead in the polls right now by less than Ed Miliband or Neil Kinnock. I think too that Theresa May will be gone long before the next election. Then Tories will not tolerate her jeopardising their tenure of power. I should add that a period of Corbyn in power might be good for the Tories. He would toxify Labour for a generation.
Three months after the 1992 Election the Conservatives had a 6 point lead.0 -
Mr Evershed,
He has been paid up to 2019 when his contract ended. However, he'll make a few bob more from selling his story in the press.
Always a risky business managing women. They do get very excitable, especially when there's more than three of them - a critical mass.
Yes, that is a joke.0 -
Why do we have to bow to the EU. It is this mindset that resulted in the leave voteFF43 said:If you are at all interested in the Article 50 talks, you should read Michel Barnier's speech in another Italian city. Here it is in full It sets out from the EU point of view very clearly where the talks are at, what the choices are, what needs to be addressed and where the blockages are. Presumably if these negotiations are going to go anywhere, Mrs May or her minions will need to address in short order each point that Barnier raises.
0 -
Mr. CD13, Critical Mass sounds like a Catholic rapper.0
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MTimT said:
Completely off topic. I don't know why I thought of PB when reading this
"Perhaps you’ll even reconsider trolling someone online regarding their political opinion, remembering that no matter how crass and inhumane a sentiment appears on screen, an actual human is sitting behind the keyboard pecking out their thoughts. I’m not arguing against engaging, but for the love of anything closely resembling humanity, argue intelligently.
"Because reading does in fact make us more intelligent. Research shows that reading not only helps with fluid intelligence, but with reading comprehension and emotional intelligence as well. You make smarter decisions about yourself and those around you"
To be fair to PB, it is one of the more civil sites on the internet for vigorous discourse of matters close to people's identity.
The full article is worth reading for those with an interest in how the brain works: http://bigthink.com/21st-century-spirituality/reading-rewires-your-brain-for-more-intelligence-and-empathy?utm_source=Heleo+Newsletters&utm_campaign=6c24eba7bd-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_09_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_85eb2ca8d0-6c24eba7bd-216946413
As a child I just read Biggles books.
Can I sue WE Johns for how it affected me?
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Beef imports are definitely an issue, also in Ireland, which will remain in the EU of course. Trade deals are complex so relative advantage is not easily worked out. On the whole we will have done better to have stayed in the EU for third party deals, as well as, much more so for the EU relationship. It's the price of disconnection.Charles said:
I definitely remember reading the concession on premium beef before the referendum because it was a factor that concerned me in terms of the ability to get good deals for the UK vs the EU as a whole.FF43 said:
I don't think the EU/Mercosur negotiation is a good example for deals that are already in the bag and which we would have to renegotiate. EU/Mercosur is still under negotiation and the main movement has taken place AFTER the UK indicated it was leaving the EU. It's hardly surprising the EU didn't bother to push our interests. In any case the main EU interest is to get access to government procurement on a non-discriminatory basis.Charles said:
Not true.
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.
Where it may be relevant is for new trade agreements. There are stronger reasons to believe the EU will get better deals that we do on our own. (As a bigger entity that is rule making rather than rule taking, the EU can and does negotiate trade agreements that are more comprehensive than country to country PTAs. These agreements are broader, deeper and more enforceable. Less trade diversion for local content rules because the free trade area is bigger. As a bigger entity the EU has more leverage for a deal that is favourable to its interests and those of its member states.) But there is a countervailing argument that flexibility means the UK can reach a deal more quickly. That extra flexibility doesn't necessarily apply to the other party however. They don't usually have any incentive to give us a better deal.
The more general point is that although the EU may be able to get a better deal for the EU as a whole than the UK can, because it is more tailored to the UK's interests then a UK only deal may be better for the UK than being 15% of a better EU-wide deal.0 -
We don't have to bow to the EU and they don't care what UK Leave voters think. Instead we can choose no agreement, no transition and chaos. It's in Barnier's speech.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why do we have to bow to the EU. It is this mindset that resulted in the leave voteFF43 said:If you are at all interested in the Article 50 talks, you should read Michel Barnier's speech in another Italian city. Here it is in full It sets out from the EU point of view very clearly where the talks are at, what the choices are, what needs to be addressed and where the blockages are. Presumably if these negotiations are going to go anywhere, Mrs May or her minions will need to address in short order each point that Barnier raises.
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It is a mind blowingly dumb viewpoint.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why do we have to bow to the EU. It is this mindset that resulted in the leave voteFF43 said:If you are at all interested in the Article 50 talks, you should read Michel Barnier's speech in another Italian city. Here it is in full It sets out from the EU point of view very clearly where the talks are at, what the choices are, what needs to be addressed and where the blockages are. Presumably if these negotiations are going to go anywhere, Mrs May or her minions will need to address in short order each point that Barnier raises.
Talk about limiting beliefs. The repetition of this type of view is on another planet of limiting beliefs.
I don't expect a good or bad Brexit. I expect us to adapt and succeed either because of or inspite of Brexit.0 -
Would not such a legal case open the door to all the allegations being aired very publicly? And what if they are true but just not proven/provable?David_Evershed said:The England women's football team manager, Mark Sampson, is remaining comendably silent after being sacked.
Since he has not been found guilty of anything, expect a massive legal claim for unfair dismissal and reputational damage.
Revenge is a dish best eaten cold.
If only politicians could be so reticent ......... and ruthless.
Silence might be more rewarding than a shot at a big damages pay out.0 -
Indeed, it should be a negotiation, not a dictation. If it is the latter, perhaps no deal is better.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why do we have to bow to the EU. It is this mindset that resulted in the leave voteFF43 said:If you are at all interested in the Article 50 talks, you should read Michel Barnier's speech in another Italian city. Here it is in full It sets out from the EU point of view very clearly where the talks are at, what the choices are, what needs to be addressed and where the blockages are. Presumably if these negotiations are going to go anywhere, Mrs May or her minions will need to address in short order each point that Barnier raises.
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Premium beef, not just beef is the part that was settled (hits Northern Ireland, Northern England/Scotland and parts of RoI).FF43 said:
Beef imports are definitely an issue, also in Ireland, which will remain in the EU of course. Trade deals are complex so relative advantage is not easily worked out. On the whole we will have done better to have stayed in the EU for third party deals, as well as, much more so for the EU relationship. It's the price of disconnection.
As soon as volume beef came into question the French kiboshed the deal0 -
Mr Dancer,
Critical mass is the amount of fissile material needed to sustain nuclear fission. It blows up in your face and the fall-out is deadly. But your definition works too.0 -
My thoughts entirely. Trying to get a job with a male football team might be preferable than airing any potentially dirty linen.MTimT said:
Would not such a legal case open the door to all the allegations being aired very publicly? And what if they are true but just not proven/provable?David_Evershed said:The England women's football team manager, Mark Sampson, is remaining comendably silent after being sacked.
Since he has not been found guilty of anything, expect a massive legal claim for unfair dismissal and reputational damage.
Revenge is a dish best eaten cold.
If only politicians could be so reticent ......... and ruthless.
Silence might be more rewarding than a shot at a big damages pay out.
He'd be in line for a decent Football League job soon when this blows over, one would have thought. (Particularly when sacking season comes around soon).0 -
The key point to address is that the EU's self-imposed "approach" is not going to work, though we can happily pretend that this is the process if it will help.FF43 said:If you are at all interested in the Article 50 talks, you should read Michel Barnier's speech in another Italian city. Here it is in full It sets out from the EU point of view very clearly where the talks are at, what the choices are, what needs to be addressed and where the blockages are. Presumably if these negotiations are going to go anywhere, Mrs May or her minions will need to address in short order each point that Barnier raises.
The sooner we make real "sufficient progress" on the conditions of the UK's withdrawal, the sooner we can begin discussing our future partnership.0
