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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Every day Mrs May remains PM she’s buying the Tories at least one week in opposition.
Westminster voting intention:
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A country that runs an overall surplus is impoverishing the current generation by building up assets abroad for the future. And a country that runs an overall deficit is running down its assets abroad for present consumption at the cost of future consumption. Sometimes either of those may be the right thing to do, but otherwise the benchmark is to aim for balance.
Bilateral balances simply reveal comparative advantage in the composition of traded goods of the surplus country wrt the deficit country.
The fact that we run a surplus in bilateral trade with the USA even though there are tariffs both ways does indeed suggest that the surplus will increase if tariffs etc are eliminated. But that is to the benefit of consumers in both countries. It may be to the detriment of some producers which had hitherto been protected behind the tariff (etc) wall, but why should that be a big concern for whichever government?
Not looking good for Anas Sarwar in the ScotLab contest. He seems to be getting the full-on Momentum-style character assassination treatment:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/sep/21/may-brexit-speech-florence-cabinet-meets-to-discuss-theresa-mays-florence-speech-on-brexit-politics-live
13:35
For example, when the EU did a deal with Mercosur they traded access to the European premium beef market (which was a significant positive for Mercosur and a negative for the UK) for access to the Latin American electronic market (which was a positive for Germany/North Italy).
That is a trade deal in which both the EU as a whole and Mercosur ended up better off, but the UK suffered.
A more tailored trade deal - in which we either restrict access to the premium beef market or in which we allow continued access in return for something that we want - could be a positive for the UK without negatively impacting Mercosur.
I prefer to focus on the supplementaries/leadership ratings, they’ve been better pointers than voting intention.
They’re not good for Mrs May as a general observation.
I think we have some recent examples of this: Theresa May herself, for a start, though admittedly her collapse from initial popularity was breathtakingly rapid. Also Cameron, whose popularity and reach faded between 2005 and 2010. Similarly for Ed Miliband.
She will not be given the benefit of the doubt by most, when she needs to explain the details of the agreement/non-agreement.
Mrs May is to damaged to do that.
He’s gone, he’s never going to be an MP again let alone leader/PM.
Move on.
But that particular trade off was made about 4Q15 I think.
https://www.ft.com/content/8cc8f47e-7510-11e7-a3e8-60495fe6ca71
https://twitter.com/kathsamsonitv/status/910846123144876032
Who knows what might happen in the next 5 years.
What matters in 2022 (as who'd be mad enough to go to the polls sooner if a reversal hasn't happened) is the ratings of the next PM.
May needs to replace her brain with the brain of someone who isn't robotic and shows a bit of personality.
Anas is a nightmare with auto-correct.
Of course there will be an element of each side blaming the other, but I took the FT to be a generally accepted source.
I'm no Corbynite by any stretch, but I admire him. I cannot see any Tory leader who would beat him in a GE given present circumstances.
Mrs May "Remain's PM"
(only kidding!)
I remember that some enterprising PhD student used records of the number of babies christened "Arthur" to identify Riothamus as being King Arthur
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riothamus
I'm hoping policy will come into the next election not just people thinking Corbyn is a strong man who has overcome the odds.
TSE:[distressed] What have I done?
Darth Gideon (aka Chancellor Osborne): You are fulfilling your destiny, TSE. Become my apprentice. Learn to use the Daft Side of the Force. There's no turning back now.
TSE: I will do whatever you ask. Just help me save Theresa's political career. I can't live without her. If she resigns, I don't know what I will do regarding "May is crap" threads!
Darth Gideon: To cheat political osbcurity is a power only one has achieved through centuries of the study of the Force. But if we work together, I know we can discover the secret to eternal AV Threads!
TSE: I pledge myself to your teachings. To the ways of the REMAIN Campaign.
Darth Gideon: Good. Good! The Force is strong with you, TSE. A powerful REMAINER you will become. Henceforth, you shall be known as Darth... Eagles.
TSE: Thank you... my Master.
Darth Gideon: Lord Eagles... rise.
Come on....people looking at policy at elections. Be a first. The EU referendum completely kiboshed any idea that people seriously consider policy options at an election. They vote on feelings and who they like.
REMAIN YY%
Where it may be relevant is for new trade agreements. There are stronger reasons to believe the EU will get better deals that we do on our own. (As a bigger entity that is rule making rather than rule taking, the EU can and does negotiate trade agreements that are more comprehensive than country to country PTAs. These agreements are broader, deeper and more enforceable. Less trade diversion for local content rules because the free trade area is bigger. As a bigger entity the EU has more leverage for a deal that is favourable to its interests and those of its member states.) But there is a countervailing argument that flexibility means the UK can reach a deal more quickly. That extra flexibility doesn't necessarily apply to the other party however. They don't usually have any incentive to give us a better deal.
I'm a Labour moderate who, like nearly everyone else, thought Corbyn would be an unmitigated disaster, but I have come to the view that people are looking for someone - anyone almost - who is not an identikit posh boy politician a la Cameron (and Miliband). The kind of observation that is made on the doorstep about Corbyn is usually about his ordinariness, his allotment, living in a "normal" house etc etc - nothing to do with his policies or past associations that exercise so many Tories. He is tapping into a rich vein of anger - the voters feel that they are footing the bill for the financial crisis whilst those who caused it continue to enrich themselves at the expense of everyone else. They want radical solutions, not more of the same, which both Labour and the Tories appeared to offer in 2015. The precise detail of what the solutions consist of is secondary - as long as it is different people are interested. It's the same kind of sentiment that led to Brexit - the voters want to kick the establishment in the hind quarters, and Corbyn is ideally placed to benefit from that.
The current Tory disarray over Brexit just reinforces these trends - people like me now face a choice between abetting economic suicide with the Tories and Corbyn - and Corbyn wins hands down in that contest. It is inconceivable that anything he could do would be as damaging as the Brexit cliff edge.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/21/theresa-may-has-backing-us-says-minister-marathon-cabinet-meeting/
"Our citizens have real concerns today – which we share – when the Home Office sends deportation letters or appears to defy High Court orders, as we read in the press."
It is very necessary to show the EU that the UK government is united behind the Prime Minister even if the opposition is not.
The polls do move around but at this moment they are not relevant
Without a withdrawal agreement, there is no transition. This is a point of law.
I would like to be very clear: if we are to extend for a limited period the acquis of the EU, with all its benefits, then logically "this would require existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply" – as recalled in the mandate I received from the European Council, under the authority of President Donald Tusk.
Stay
Cliff edge
EEA
There are no other options.
We need to wait to see what TM says, how she says it, and the reaction before we can praise her or condemn her.
Not long to wait and I will provide my own, as honest as possible, opinion on Theresa's future or not over the course of the next few days
"Perhaps you’ll even reconsider trolling someone online regarding their political opinion, remembering that no matter how crass and inhumane a sentiment appears on screen, an actual human is sitting behind the keyboard pecking out their thoughts. I’m not arguing against engaging, but for the love of anything closely resembling humanity, argue intelligently.
"Because reading does in fact make us more intelligent. Research shows that reading not only helps with fluid intelligence, but with reading comprehension and emotional intelligence as well. You make smarter decisions about yourself and those around you"
To be fair to PB, it is one of the more civil sites on the internet for vigorous discourse of matters close to people's identity.
The full article is worth reading for those with an interest in how the brain works: http://bigthink.com/21st-century-spirituality/reading-rewires-your-brain-for-more-intelligence-and-empathy?utm_source=Heleo+Newsletters&utm_campaign=6c24eba7bd-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_09_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_85eb2ca8d0-6c24eba7bd-216946413
The more general point is that although the EU may be able to get a better deal for the EU as a whole than the UK can, because it is more tailored to the UK's interests then a UK only deal may be better for the UK than being 15% of a better EU-wide deal.
However, I know that many think Corbyn is the answer but he has not had any real scrutiny on his economics. Sky have been running a morning on students and their fees and only 29% polled agree they should be abolished.
Student fees is a very complicated subject and there are many aspects to it, but I give Corbyn the credit for raising it, but I doubt that free University fees for all will be the vote winner he thinks it is.
Also on social care labour say they will provide 3 billion for it but the annual social care cost is nearer 20 billion
There are many reasons why I think Corbyn is doing OK but that is more to the fact the conservatives had a dreadful campaign and Corbyn was not put under the scrutiny on economics than he should have been.
Brexit will dominate the agenda, unfortunately, but there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge before we can conclude that Corbyn is the answer to post Brexit UK
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/
But Con chances will not be assisted by dumping May now. Brexit is bound to be difficult / awkward / controversial etc - so much better that May takes the flack and that a new leader comes in post Brexit to go into the next GE afresh.
And whilst this poll is very poor for May it's not great for Corbyn either (looking at personal ratings, not Party voting intention). It's far from clear Corbyn will be strong enough to win a GE, especially up against a better, fresher Con leader.
Con's chances of winning the next GE are also better by going long - make Corbyn look older, less fresh and give more time to sow doubts about him on the economy.
And if Con is going to go long, another reason for the next leader to come in later.
Since he has not been found guilty of anything, expect a massive legal claim for unfair dismissal and reputational damage.
Revenge is a dish best eaten cold.
If only politicians could be so reticent ......... and ruthless.
Three months after the 1992 Election the Conservatives had a 6 point lead.
He has been paid up to 2019 when his contract ended. However, he'll make a few bob more from selling his story in the press.
Always a risky business managing women. They do get very excitable, especially when there's more than three of them - a critical mass.
Yes, that is a joke.
As a child I just read Biggles books.
Can I sue WE Johns for how it affected me?
Talk about limiting beliefs. The repetition of this type of view is on another planet of limiting beliefs.
I don't expect a good or bad Brexit. I expect us to adapt and succeed either because of or inspite of Brexit.
Silence might be more rewarding than a shot at a big damages pay out.
As soon as volume beef came into question the French kiboshed the deal
Critical mass is the amount of fissile material needed to sustain nuclear fission. It blows up in your face and the fall-out is deadly. But your definition works too.
He'd be in line for a decent Football League job soon when this blows over, one would have thought. (Particularly when sacking season comes around soon).
The sooner we make real "sufficient progress" on the conditions of the UK's withdrawal, the sooner we can begin discussing our future partnership.