politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Thanet South could see CON to UKIP tactical voting

SeanT said:

So what if the UK government now says No, the BoE won't be the lender of last resort for Scotland.

What then?

Seems like a daft open goal to me, but I am 10,000 miles away.

That cannot be what the SNP is saying. In order to be a recognised independent country both parties in the divorce negotiation will have to agree a final package. As the rUK can certainly live with the status quo Scotland is not really going to be in a position to dictate terms. I am sure that Salmond and co understand this.

RichardNabavi said:

SeanT said:

So what if the UK government now says No, the BoE won't be the lender of last resort for Scotland.

What then?

Seems like a daft open goal to me, but I am 10,000 miles away.

There is not a snowflake's chance in hell of the UK acting as a lender of last resort for a foreign country over whose budget they have no control. Salmond must know that.

Assuming good faith and non-crazy people they'd do a deal over the basic parameters of Scotland's budget. The catch is that the resulting independent Scotland ends up having to be quite fiscally conservative, and not very independent...

SouthCoastKevin said:

I'm not sure I follow all this - if Scotland goes independent but keeps the pound then, like (for example) Greece with the Euro, it will have very little say over what happens with the currency it's using. Therefore, Scotland will either have to keep / get its national finances under control (i.e. manageable debt and deficit) or accept the consequences as seen in (for example) Greece. Is that all correct?

If I have understood correctly, won't Scotland simply have to follow similar (or indeed more severe) austerity as the UK government has been doing over the last few years? Or is the SNP's argument that actually Scotland will automatically be in a significantly better financial position once it is independent? I think that's the bit I'm not following; how will Scotland not be in a similar position to that which the whole of the UK is currently in, namely having a still-massive deficit to reduce and (eventually...) turn into a year-on-year surplus?

I'm not sure what Salmond's position is but that sounds right. The other thing to add would be that there are strong incentives for small countries in free markets with large countries to have quite aggressively right-wing tax and spending policies, and in particular low taxes and unburdensome regulations for business.

Not watching the feed (Salmond is like a Scottish Balls), but I'm surprised at the surprise that's met his apparent claim that if he doesn't get the pound etc then Scotland won't pay its debts. I'm sure I read that elsewhere in the last day or two.

It's immensely juvenile. You cannot dictate terms in a negotiation.

However, he isn't trying to win a negotiation. He's trying to win a referendum. I'm sure a certain sort of Scotsman might be swayed by the underlying sentiment of brave Scotland standing up to the evil English. If Salmond wins the referendum he will then simply u-turn during negotiations.

Or, he'll have his first act as leader (which he will be, if Yes wins) of independent Scotland to be defaulting on debts. Given recent history, that would be phenomenally unwise.

Ah, it's OK. The UK has no say in the matter, panic over:

An independent Scotland will be able to decide our currency and the arrangements for monetary policy.

Four currency options were examined by the Fiscal Commission - the continued use of Sterling (pegged and flexible), the creation of a Scottish currency and membership of the Euro.

They concluded that retaining Sterling as part of a formal monetary union with rest of the UK will be the best option. The Fiscal Commission proposed a practical and workable model, including governance and institutional arrangements that would create a successful and robust framework.

The Commission's analysis shows that it will not only be in Scotland's interests to retain Sterling but that - post independence - this will also benefit the rest of the UK.

Under such an arrangement, monetary policy will be set according to economic conditions across the Sterling Area with ownership and governance of the Bank of England undertaken on a shareholder basis.

So that's all right then.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2013/11/9348/7

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

They still have to get off the fence. And crap policies are crap policies whether they're floated 12 months out or 6 months out, the difference being at 12 months you have more time to recognise it and correct it.

Judging by the few they've floated so far the voters seem to quite like Labour's crap policies, and it's the crappest ones they like the most.

Err these policies being what exactly ?

To date what you're calling policy isn't. It's spinny gimmicks.

Well, in the case of energy it's an actual, quite interesting policy that nobody's talking about, combined with a spinny gimmick. But they'll fight the election on gimmicks, as is traditional in the British political system.

Well I'd agree that Labour don't have a monopoly on daft gimmicks, but most of the spinny stuff is more of a post cold war trend as there was subsequently little to debate on economics. However given the shortage of money and the general crap the UK is in, it will be interesting to see how long the politicos can put off the day when they actually do have to face up to problems and can no longer just paper over the cracks.

I wonder if launching the Indie Ref White Paper at a Press Conference was a mistake? You've an audience of cynical hacks - the whole atmosphere feels very flat. If they'd done it in Parliament they'd have had at least the SNP MSPs cheering things on.....

This currency mess is going to get bigger and bigger and smellier and smellier for the SNP. They need a sensible, workable and controllable answer ASAP. Saying 'we will do as we please with the Pound and screw you guys in London' is a position that the average 4 year old will be able to destroy. If the Bank of England says No then it's a No. Back to the drawing board for Salmond.

Patrick said:

This currency mess is going to get bigger and bigger and smellier and smellier for the SNP. They need a sensible, workable and controllable answer ASAP. Saying 'we will do as we please with the Pound and screw you guys in London' is a position that the average 4 year old will be able to destroy. If the Bank of England says No then it's a No. Back to the drawing board for Salmond.

Bit late for that. This is formally in their White Paper.

Lord only knows why they've such a God-awful hash of this most basic of all questions. They've had fifty years to think about it, and five years since the Euro option began to fall apart.

RichardNabavi said:

Patrick said:

This currency mess is going to get bigger and bigger and smellier and smellier for the SNP. They need a sensible, workable and controllable answer ASAP. Saying 'we will do as we please with the Pound and screw you guys in London' is a position that the average 4 year old will be able to destroy. If the Bank of England says No then it's a No. Back to the drawing board for Salmond.

Bit late for that. This is formally in their White Paper.

Lord only knows why they've such a God-awful hash of this most basic of all questions. They've had fifty years to think about it, and five years since the Euro option began to fall apart.

You'd need a heart of stone not to laugh.

Elizabeth Windsor ‏@Queen_UK 1m
No, Salmond, you cannot have the pound. One's not running a pick and mix constitution here, cupcake. #whitepaper

(joke) Queenie gets it spot on....

As the referendum approaches surely people who get to vote in it will want to know about things like currency, closure of Nuclear bases, oil revenue projections, share of the debt, etc. The practical arrangements. What 'Independence' actually means.

Please, please tell me the Nats have got some sensible answers to these. They can't surely have overlooked the main issues around independence in their manifesto can they?

CarlottaVance said:

I wonder if launching the Indie Ref White Paper at a Press Conference was a mistake? You've an audience of cynical hacks - the whole atmosphere feels very flat. If they'd done it in Parliament they'd have had at least the SNP MSPs cheering things on.....

LOL, balanced view as ever

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

I wonder if launching the Indie Ref White Paper at a Press Conference was a mistake? You've an audience of cynical hacks - the whole atmosphere feels very flat. If they'd done it in Parliament they'd have had at least the SNP MSPs cheering things on.....

LOL, balanced view as ever

What do you make of the press conference?

Surely having an audience that was at least partially in favour would be a better idea than a largely hostile one?

TGOHF said:

Stuart_Dickson said:

Easterross said:

London Labour is as likely to upset and alienate decent proud Scots as London Tories. They just don't understand the Scots, regardless of political allegiance. We don't like being told what's good for us, even if it is.

What has amazed me over the last twenty years is just how few English politicians, of any stripe, have the faintest clue about the Scots psyche. They just don't "get" Scots. If they did then they wouldn't find themselves in the mess they're in.

Saving the Union would have been easy-peasy lemon squeezy if they had made the right moves twenty years ago. But the moment has long gone.

Stuart like most rightie residents of rUk I am mildly against Indy for Scotland.

However - if YES wins I will be for it and as soon as possible.

41 less Labour MPs
11 less LD MPs
6 less SNP MPs

Worst case is 1 year of Lib/Lab before they are turfed out.

I am very right and very strongly for independence, cannot wait to get the dead hand of Westminster removed from Scotland.

There is no reason why an Independent Scotland could not retain the £ sterling as its unit of currency as for example the US $ is an accepted unit of currency as in say the Bahamas where it is interchangeable at 1 to 1 with the Bahamas Dollar . That does not mean that Scotland would have any more influence on the B of E than the Bahamas has on the US treasury . Nor does it mean that pound notes issued by Scottish banks would be as widely accepted throughout the world as B of E notes , try getting a US bank to accept Bahamas dollars on a one to one basis .

Slackbladder said:

Patrick said:

As the referendum approaches surely people who get to vote in it will want to know about things like currency, closure of Nuclear bases, oil revenue projections, share of the debt, etc. The practical arrangements. What 'Independence' actually means.

Please, please tell me the Nats have got some sensible answers to these. They can't surely have overlooked the main issues around independence in their manifesto can they?

Don't be silly.. all Salmond has to do is paint himself in woad and 'Cry FRREEDOM!!!'

What a turnip

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

What a class act Salmond is , his presentation on the White paper is superb. Not even one pause or hesitation , totally up on his brief.

more totally up his own briefs. he's just another bullshitter.

Alan, best one in UK by a mile

Blimey - look at the move on AVB being the next manager to leave his post.

Odds on favourite with some !! Still 5-2 with BWin tho... 2-1 Hills...

Gibraltar row escalates as Spain opens UK diplomatic bag
Britain strongly condemned Spain today after it emerged that a diplomatic bag was opened at the border with Gibraltar in breach of the Vienna Convention.
Spanish Guardia Civil officers opened the bag belonging to the British Government last Friday as it was being taken across the border from Gibraltar to Spain.
Spanish police searched the bag before returning it to a courier. It is not known what was inside it or why they opened the bag.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article3932326.ece

SeanT said:

According to the FT, Salmond really has threatened to renege on Scotland's share of UK debts if he's not given his way on the Bank of England.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b6c3be12-52c3-11e3-8586-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2lkSj7gCy

Incredible. So what's to stop the rUK government from saying Right, we're keeping half the gas and oil as it was developed by British companies, not Scots - on and on and on.

This could get very messy and very rancorous very quickly. Again, I wonder if that is Salmond's plan - the only way to victory in the teeth of adverse polls is to cause chaos and bitterness...

All the UK government will do is say that we are not prepared to negotiate on the basis that Salmond has set out. Thus, Scotland would not become independent. It's as simple as that.

TGOHF said:

MarkSenior said:

There is no reason why an Independent Scotland could not retain the £ sterling as its unit of currency as for example the US $ is an accepted unit of currency as in say the Bahamas where it is interchangeable at 1 to 1 with the Bahamas Dollar . That does not mean that Scotland would have any more influence on the B of E than the Bahamas has on the US treasury . Nor does it mean that pound notes issued by Scottish banks would be as widely accepted throughout the world as B of E notes , try getting a US bank to accept Bahamas dollars on a one to one basis .

And the Bahamas certainly don't print US dollars.

No , they print Bahamas dollars just as Clydesdale Bank print Scottish pound notes which although widely accepted in England it is not obligatory to do so .

Stuart_Dickson said:

antifrank said:

As a side issue (!), threatening not to pay its share of UK debts doesn't seem to be a tactic likely to assist an independent Scotland in its attempts to be admitted to the EU. Never mind the UK, other member states such as Spain would be keen to establish the principle that seceding states have to pay their way.

I find it amusing that on the same thread Unionists are lambasting Spain over Gibraltar whilst simultaneously claiming them as their great ally in the fight against Scottish independence.

Talk about having your cake and eating it.

Spain's undoubted opposition to Scottish independence and its guaranteed veto of automatic EU membership is driven entirely by internal concerns.

malcolmg said:

Kevin, the current suggestion is that Scotland puts more into Westminster than they get out , if you include everything. Therefore when out they will be better off given they will have same liabilities but higher amount of money. Not heard anybody say it will be significantly better off nor that there will be tough times ahead , what they say is that they will be able to introduce policies to suit Scotland that will improve things longer term. Worst case start point is we will eb same as we are

All right, that's fair enough - if independent Scotland-in-waiting can convince rUK that this is indeed the case. And, like others have said, what if rUK is not convinced? Scotland refuses to pay its debts? Mmm, that always turns out well. Or maybe independence doesn't go ahead at all?

Face it, Scotland will simply not be able to dictate terms to rUK, and for Salmond to pretend otherwise (if that indeed is what he's doing; I've not been watching the press conference) is utterly daft. Or so ISTM.

SouthamObserver said:

But Scotland cannot be independent until both sides agree it. That is just a legal fact. Of course, the Scots could unilaterally declare independence and some countries in far off parts of the world (Argentina, Cuba, Venezuela etc) might recognise that - but in terms of a currency, membership of international bodies, trade and so on it would be an absolute disaster.

Legally Scottish independence could be decided unilaterally by the United Kingdom.

If Scots can't be persuaded that they would need to pay their fair share on independence, then YES is a certainty. If Scots can be persuaded of that, then as from today NO is pretty near a certainty. Tying the currency into a threat to walk away from the UK's historical debts is a desperate roll of the dice.

If I was rUK I'd want to hang on to all our debt. Giving some of it to Scotland would in effect be defrauding the good people who have bought it. You buy 30-year gilts in good faith and then suddenly find that some of it has died and turned a horrible tinge of blue.

Mick_Pork said:

SouthamObserver said:

Not that impressed by the SNP today. Obviously, they have to present a best case scenario, but there are so many holes in their arguments about issues such as Sterling and EU membership. As Richard N says below, they have had plenty of time to work through these things but have not managed to come up with any convincing answers. That is a poor show.

On the contrary. You would have to be delusional to believe anyone who supports Yes ever thought that the unionist press and unionist parties would ever be satisfied with the answers on these questions. It is also of no consequence since it is the scottish public who will have to be persuaded not the amusing SLAB and Con-Dem politicians or their incompetent spinners. The SNP are well used to having the con-dems labour and almost all of the press against them. That certainly didn't stop the 2011 landslide.

Absolutely - it is down to the Scottish people. But that does not mean that the SNP put forward a convincing case today. They have no real answer to the Sterling issue and they are just wrong about EU membership - as Spain will make clear over the coming weeks. Given the time they have had to put a case together I was genuinely expecting more. But that is a view from afar, of course; maybe they can get away with less.

SouthCoastKevin said:

malcolmg said:

Kevin, the current suggestion is that Scotland puts more into Westminster than they get out , if you include everything. Therefore when out they will be better off given they will have same liabilities but higher amount of money. Not heard anybody say it will be significantly better off nor that there will be tough times ahead , what they say is that they will be able to introduce policies to suit Scotland that will improve things longer term. Worst case start point is we will eb same as we are

All right, that's fair enough - if independent Scotland-in-waiting can convince rUK that this is indeed the case. And, like others have said, what if rUK is not convinced? Scotland refuses to pay its debts? Mmm, that always turns out well. Or maybe independence doesn't go ahead at all?

Face it, Scotland will simply not be able to dictate terms to rUK, and for Salmond to pretend otherwise (if that indeed is what he's doing; I've not been watching the press conference) is utterly daft. Or so ISTM.

Kevin, no share of assets and other goodies means we do not pay UK debts , seems reasonable. You cannot have your cake and eat it. Unionists can try to kid on they are tough but we are not as stupid as Westminster seem to believe.

SouthamObserver said:

Not that impressed by the SNP today. Obviously, they have to present a best case scenario, but there are so many holes in their arguments about issues such as Sterling and EU membership.

It really is 'sales training 101' - 'anticipate objections' - they don't need to go into huge detail on plan B, as Plan A is still the desired outcome - but to pretend it doesn't exist opens a huge hostage to fortune. I also though the staging poor - launching it in front of an audience of cynical hacks....I think Bella Caledonia got one question, but apart from that it was 'what about the currency' repeat.....

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

According to the FT, Salmond really has threatened to renege on Scotland's share of UK debts if he's not given his way on the Bank of England.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b6c3be12-52c3-11e3-8586-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2lkSj7gCy

Incredible. So what's to stop the rUK government from saying Right, we're keeping half the gas and oil as it was developed by British companies, not Scots - on and on and on.

This could get very messy and very rancorous very quickly. Again, I wonder if that is Salmond's plan - the only way to victory in the teeth of adverse polls is to cause chaos and bitterness...

All the UK government will do is say that we are not prepared to negotiate on the basis that Salmond has set out. Thus, Scotland would not become independent. It's as simple as that.

But then Salmond will say "Look, they won't let us be free, they won't even negotiate" - and he wins on a patriotic surge.

I reckon this is his strategy. Be luridly provocative, make highly dubious assertions, but then paint the English as Scot-haters and oppressors when they are provoked into criticism of his ridiculous assertions.

LOL, you boys do not like fairness, typical England position , I should win and so I am going to take my ball away ,ha ha ha. Do you ever read your posts.

SouthamObserver said:

But that does not mean that the SNP put forward a convincing case today. They have no real answer to the Sterling issue and they are just wrong about EU membership

No, they have no real answer that you or the unionist spinners like over those issues. Hardly the same thing. The sheer hilarity of presenting unionist parties and spinners not being convinced today as proof of anything is a very telling sign of just how out of touch some people are on PB. Which is of course nothing new.

Easterross said:

CarlottaVance said:

Gibraltar row escalates as Spain opens UK diplomatic bag
Britain strongly condemned Spain today after it emerged that a diplomatic bag was opened at the border with Gibraltar in breach of the Vienna Convention.
Spanish Guardia Civil officers opened the bag belonging to the British Government last Friday as it was being taken across the border from Gibraltar to Spain.
Spanish police searched the bag before returning it to a courier. It is not known what was inside it or why they opened the bag.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article3932326.ece

William Hague needs to send in the crack troops- Eck waving the Indy White Paper which he could biff the Spanish with. 700+pages should leave a fair sized bruise!

LOL, get one of the RN Navy boats to harass Spanish shipping or ask a border guard to blow raspberries at the Spanish. The spineless wonders will do nothing as Spain rubs their noses in it.

Ooops see where that got them last week , Spanish rolled about the decks laughing at them.

All the UK government will do is say that we are not prepared to negotiate on the basis that Salmond has set out. Thus, Scotland would not become independent. It's as simple as that.


But Scotland cannot be independent until both sides agree it. That is just a legal fact. Of course, the Scots could unilaterally declare independence and some countries in far off parts of the world (Argentina, Cuba, Venezuela etc) might recognise that - but in terms of a currency, membership of international bodies, trade and so on it would be an absolute disaster. Salmond knows all this. I would not take much notice of what he says in the run up to the referendum. If he wins, though, there will very rapidly be a series of major U-turns. There is no alternative to that. There really isn't.



Sure. But Salmond doesn't care. He has put every penny on Tartan. He is playing to Win and will say anything to achieve that, no matter how nonsensical. Once/if he gets his Yes vote, it will all be history.

The tricky thing for Unionists is how do you approach someone who is obviously lying and blustering, but who is doing it under a flag of patriotism?

If you lecture or sneer it may actually boost his popularity.



That is true. But Salmond has to maintain his line for 10 more months under intense scrutiny. If the Scots want independence they'll vote for it in the knowledge that it will look very different to what is currently being promised.

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

SouthamObserver said:

Not that impressed by the SNP today. Obviously, they have to present a best case scenario, but there are so many holes in their arguments about issues such as Sterling and EU membership. As Richard N says below, they have had plenty of time to work through these things but have not managed to come up with any convincing answers. That is a poor show.

The SNP are well used to having the con-dems labour and almost all of the press against them.

So why the heck did they launch their White Paper in front of the press and not in Parliament where at least they'd have some on their side? The stage management sucked.

Sour grapes from Scotland hater. It is their white paper, their vision for Scotland assuming they get elected after the YES vote. Done with style and no question unanswered.

TheWatcher said:

Easterross said:

CarlottaVance said:

Gibraltar row escalates as Spain opens UK diplomatic bag
Britain strongly condemned Spain today after it emerged that a diplomatic bag was opened at the border with Gibraltar in breach of the Vienna Convention.
Spanish Guardia Civil officers opened the bag belonging to the British Government last Friday as it was being taken across the border from Gibraltar to Spain.
Spanish police searched the bag before returning it to a courier. It is not known what was inside it or why they opened the bag.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article3932326.ece

William Hague needs to send in the crack troops- Eck waving the Indy White Paper which he could biff the Spanish with. 700+pages should leave a fair sized bruise!

Start imposing intensive border checks on trucks carrying Spanish fruit and veg into the UK.

Convoys of rotting produce being rejected by UK supermarkets would soon focus minds in Madrid.

You really believe these cowardy custards would actually do something positive other than whinge

SouthCoastKevin said:

malcolmg said:

...if we are to pay your debts we want something in return.

No one's talking about an independent Scotland paying rUK's debts, merely its fair share of the current UK's debts. Of course, what is that 'fair share' is a key question, hence my comment above. But Scotland won't be able to simply tellrUK what the fair share is; where's the leverage for Salmond et al in order for them to get their own way?
EDIT - crosspost

malcolmg said:

Kevin, no share of assets and other goodies means we do not pay UK debts , seems reasonable. You cannot have your cake and eat it. Unionists can try to kid on they are tough but we are not as stupid as Westminster seem to believe.

Who's talking about Scotland not having a share of the UK's assets? The two parties (Scotland and rUK) will obviously have to agree as to what constitutes a fair share of the current UK's assets and debts, but I don't see what Scotland's leverage will be. I'm not saying rUK will try to screw over Scotland, but AFAICT most of the cards will lie with rUK.

Kevin, I do not see you mentioning a fair share of the assets supporting that debt. We own the assets as well as the debts. They are not mutually exclusive.

Stuart_Dickson said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

According to the FT, Salmond really has threatened to renege on Scotland's share of UK debts if he's not given his way on the Bank of England.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b6c3be12-52c3-11e3-8586-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2lkSj7gCy

Incredible. So what's to stop the rUK government from saying Right, we're keeping half the gas and oil as it was developed by British companies, not Scots - on and on and on.

This could get very messy and very rancorous very quickly. Again, I wonder if that is Salmond's plan - the only way to victory in the teeth of adverse polls is to cause chaos and bitterness...

All the UK government will do is say that we are not prepared to negotiate on the basis that Salmond has set out. Thus, Scotland would not become independent. It's as simple as that.

Ho ho.

So, Scotland votes Yes and Westminster says No? What happens then? Are you planning on sending gunboats up the Forth?

It's more a case of what the Scottish government would do. UDI would be a disaster.

taffys said:

''You cannot have it all ways, if we are to pay your debts we want something in return.''

Absolutely. Which is why I think rUK should keep all its debts. And tell you what, you can keep all the oil with our compliments.

If Scotland votes yes I really think rUK is better giving Scotland exactly what it wants, maybe more, to secure a quick divorce.

If rUK gets into a protracted argument that will in the end cost more than a few upfront costs taken immediately.

If Scotland votes yes it can start with a clean slate and issue its own debt.

That would be a sensible position for Westminster to take. Save them lots of hassles on paying pensions , etc etc for next 50 years

BBC's Have Your Say has a fantastic comment on the Scottish Independence White Paper:

"Separated, Europe will pummel these fair islands into dust. The old will starve, the young will be enslaved, and the weak will be fed to batteries of caged ponies. Our womenfolk will wail as they roast cats over oil drums and ask why we abandoned them. That's what'll happen."

I'm still trying to work out whether it's a wildly unionist UKIPper or a wilful parody, but either way it's brilliant.

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mick_Pork said:

SouthamObserver said:

Not that impressed by the SNP today. Obviously, they have to present a best case scenario, but there are so many holes in their arguments about issues such as Sterling and EU membership. As Richard N says below, they have had plenty of time to work through these things but have not managed to come up with any convincing answers. That is a poor show.

The SNP are well used to having the con-dems labour and almost all of the press against them.

So why the heck did they launch their White Paper in front of the press and not in Parliament where at least they'd have some on their side? The stage management sucked.

Sour grapes from Scotland hater. It is their white paper, their vision for Scotland assuming they get elected after the YES vote. Done with style and no question unanswered.

no question unanswered

Really?

You can't see past your Eck-worship to spot constructive criticism - why do you think a hostile press was a better audience than a partially appreciative parliament?