Just one thing - there were two issues about the "£350m for the NHS" campaigning tool.
1) EU contributions might not be diverted (in part or in full) to the NHS (after all there were various pledges to existing UK recipients of EU funds) 2) Because of the rebate it wasn't ever £350m (the Remain problem being that saying "it's not £350m, it's £220m" didn't change the message that it was a big sounding number).
So Boris's message is apparently repeating "for the NHS", but where is he getting the £350m from?
The basic problem is that PB used to be an interesting site with balanced, informative commentary. No longer. It reads like the Guardian these days: all left-leaning and myopic. It badly needs counterpoint.
There's no point in having a right left wing view on anything in the UK. RWLW politics in this country is morally and intellectually defunct. Thatcher and Cameron Blair and Wilson were able to articulate a vision that seemed relevant to the future. This lot are tilling the earth with salt in the name of Brexit'the people' and have an increasingly ugly streak of social conservatism sectarianism.
Sadly still works that way too.
Tom Rolt in 1974 commented bitterly that we could not look for salvation from the two main political parties, whose sole purpose was to gain an ever-increasing slice of an ever-diminishing pie for their supporters. Never has that been more true than in the last ten years. Brown didn't care about anyone who didn't vote Labour - indeed, he actively hated them, as we can see with his treatment of Field's welfare reforms and blithe abolition of the 10p tax band to fund his lower-middle-class supporters, which without the campaigning of ironically, Field would have savaged those on lower incomes - and Corbyn is worse. Osborne was quite happy to screw over students to support pensioners, reasoning that the latter voted for him and the former didn't.
Do you ever get the feeling that as a country we're more fucked than a prostitute in a Game of Thrones episode?
There were cuts and there were pay-caps but most of all there was profligacy.
Yep, government spending actually went up every year from 2010 - 2015, helped along by the massive increase in the “Department” of debt interest.
With the benefit of hindsight, what we should have done is what happened in Ireland, with large actual cuts in government salaries, pensions and benefits. This gave the couple of years’ breathing space necessary for the government’s finances to adjust to the new reality.
Of course, life would have been better if we hadn’t been running deficits when the recession hit in the first place, but as Corbyn discovered people will vote for free sweeties.
It really is incredible that people talk of 'austerity' when the government has borrowed over a trillion quid during the last decade, when house prices and retail spending are at record highs, when coffee shops and hotels and continually increasing and when the UK has been running an annual £100bn current account deficit.
Whilst politically the article is arguably correct, £2bn is a rounding error in Government finances, and they find large sums all the time for pet projects. Austerity or no austerity. It wouldn't be difficult to find Cam/Osborne pledges that by the same logic would have "blown apart their economic case"
Boris is delusional but he isn't the only one. We simply cannot have hard Brexit from the EU in 2019 without at the very least a massive economic shock and snap depression. And that's the best case scenario as economies recover even from a deep depression, providing they are still able to trade.
Yet the Tories keep insisting that is we wish hard enough the EU will cave in and problems like 5 years for a customs set-up won't matter. There are still a large number of voters backing this approach, I've seen messages sent to a Labour MP up here denouncing them for voting against the second reading of the May enabling act.
But by the time we have an election if we have hard Brexit those voters won't be saying that. Instead they will be demanding blood having been lied to about how the EU will give is our freedom and the sunlit uplands lie over the fence. When they realise the uplands are on fire and there is no food the mood will change. And the people to blame will be the Tories.
Hard Brexit is an Extinction Level Event for any politician / party who backs it. Even if he doesn't become PM you can see Boris forcing May's hand which is already clutching the tiller towards the cliff edge. Who was that civil servant who said I'm fucked you're fucked the party's fucked? That's the Tories.
Popcorn anyone?
The blame, if it comes to blame, will depend entirely on who the public feel are responsible for a hard Brexit.
If the UK government makes a fair offer to the EU (possibly even by Theresa May in Florence next week) and the EU continue to play hard ball it is more than probable the public will insist on the UK walking away, no matter what the economic consequencies are for the UK and indeed the EU
Also poor old Boris getting little coverage in the broadcast media due to their saturation coverage of the terror attack
What did he expect when the army had just been deployed?
We can all think what we may of his article, but he should really have held it back a day or two if he wanted to lead the news.
David Herdson thank you yet again for your articles .You seem to me a thought provoking conservative and they are very lucky to have you as a member.I will always remember your post just before the election this year when you said this was not the expected forgone conclusion.The party needs more like you listening on the ground outside the Westminster arena.
David's post just before the election was so succinct and raised my concern considerably that within hours my instinct told me TM would not get her increased majority. Indeed in several posts leading up to the exit poll I did say her majority had gone.
David is an excellent conservative and an example to the rest of us. I would also say Nick is the same for labour
Boris is delusional but he isn't the only one. We simply cannot have hard Brexit from the EU in 2019 without at the very least a massive economic shock and snap depression. And that's the best case scenario as economies recover even from a deep depression, providing they are still able to trade.
Yet the Tories keep insisting that is we wish hard enough the EU will cave in and problems like 5 years for a customs set-up won't matter. There are still a large number of voters backing this approach, I've seen messages sent to a Labour MP up here denouncing them for voting against the second reading of the May enabling act.
But by the time we have an election if we have hard Brexit those voters won't be saying that. Instead they will be demanding blood having been lied to about how the EU will give is our freedom and the sunlit uplands lie over the fence. When they realise the uplands are on fire and there is no food the mood will change. And the people to blame will be the Tories.
Hard Brexit is an Extinction Level Event for any politician / party who backs it. Even if he doesn't become PM you can see Boris forcing May's hand which is already clutching the tiller towards the cliff edge. Who was that civil servant who said I'm fucked you're fucked the party's fucked? That's the Tories.
Popcorn anyone?
The blame, if it comes to blame, will depend entirely on who the public feel are responsible for a hard Brexit.
If the UK government makes a fair offer to the EU (possibly even by Theresa May in Florence next week) and the EU continue to play hard ball it is more than probable the public will insist on the UK walking away, no matter what the economic consequencies are for the UK and indeed the EU
Also poor old Boris getting little coverage in the broadcast media due to their saturation coverage of the terror attack
I wonder if the time of publication is actually intentional. Boris quietly sets out the "advantages" of a hard Brexit. Next week in Florence May sets out the preferred "fair" option and we leave things to the EU to decide...
The pay cap has become politically unsustainable, so the government might as well make a virtue of necessity. The big improvement in public finances over the past 18 months gives them some room for manoeuvre.
There were cuts and there were pay-caps but most of all there was profligacy.
Yep, government spending actually went up every year from 2010 - 2015, helped along by the massive increase in the “Department” of debt interest.
With the benefit of hindsight, what we should have done is what happened in Ireland, with large actual cuts in government salaries, pensions and benefits. This gave the couple of years’ breathing space necessary for the government’s finances to adjust to the new reality.
Of course, life would have been better if we hadn’t been running deficits when the recession hit in the first place, but as Corbyn discovered people will vote for free sweeties.
It really is incredible that people talk of 'austerity' when the government has borrowed over a trillion quid during the last decade, when house prices and retail spending are at record highs, when coffee shops and hotels and continually increasing and when the UK has been running an annual £100bn current account deficit.
Looking at Government spending as a whole (even ignoring debt interest) austerity hasn't really happened. However it is simply false to argue that certain sectors of Government funding, in particular those involving Local Government, haven't been hit very hard indeed. Whatever slight of financial hand the Government have tried to employ to cover this up ("spending power", adding huge areas of additional spending responsibility in cases where they have supplied extra funding etc).
Just read Boris article. It's an amazing piece of optimism and can-do spirit.
Difficult not to read it and think that:
a) this is a massive pitch for the leadership
b) It is exactly the kind of stuff that was missing from May's GE campaign (whether you actually agree with it or not - I am thinking the tone and voice, the 'marching towards the sounds of gunfire' spirit) .
c) campaigning in this kind of manner and tone would give Jezza a almighty battle on his hands.
There were cuts and there were pay-caps but most of all there was profligacy.
Yep, government spending actually went up every year from 2010 - 2015, helped along by the massive increase in the “Department” of debt interest.
With the benefit of hindsight, what we should have done is what happened in Ireland, with large actual cuts in government salaries, pensions and benefits. This gave the couple of years’ breathing space necessary for the government’s finances to adjust to the new reality.
Of course, life would have been better if we hadn’t been running deficits when the recession hit in the first place, but as Corbyn discovered people will vote for free sweeties.
It really is incredible that people talk of 'austerity' when the government has borrowed over a trillion quid during the last decade, when house prices and retail spending are at record highs, when coffee shops and hotels and continually increasing and when the UK has been running an annual £100bn current account deficit.
Looking at Government spending as a whole (even ignoring debt interest) austerity hasn't really happened. However it is simply false to argue that certain sectors of Government funding, in particular those involving Local Government, haven't been hit very hard indeed. Whatever slight of financial hand the Government have tried to employ ("spending power", adding huge areas of additional spending responsibility in cases where they have supplied extra funding etc).
As I said below there were cuts and pay-caps.
But there was also profligacy in other areas.
Was it a coincidence that the profligacy was on the pet projects of Cameron and Osborne and on groups that voted Conservative ?
The pay cap has become politically unsustainable, so the government might as well make a virtue of necessity. The big improvement in public finances over the past 18 months gives them some room for manoeuvre.
True - doesn't solve the problem that the Government is living beyond its means and we are about to hit another recession.
Just one thing - there were two issues about the "£350m for the NHS" campaigning tool.
1) EU contributions might not be diverted (in part or in full) to the NHS (after all there were various pledges to existing UK recipients of EU funds) 2) Because of the rebate it wasn't ever £350m (the Remain problem being that saying "it's not £350m, it's £220m" didn't change the message that it was a big sounding number).
So Boris's message is apparently repeating "for the NHS", but where is he getting the £350m from?
Down the back of his sofa?
Or maybe he is proposing an Edward IV solution? I wouldn't put it past him...
The pay cap has become politically unsustainable, so the government might as well make a virtue of necessity. The big improvement in public finances over the past 18 months gives them some room for manoeuvre.
The increase in pensions and the increase in public sector pay could be linked to inflation.
At the same time student loans interest could be linked to the same measure and the level above which repayments are made increased at the same rate.
The government could then make a declaration about 'fairness' and 'all in this together' and denouncing Osbornism.
Just one thing - there were two issues about the "£350m for the NHS" campaigning tool.
1) EU contributions might not be diverted (in part or in full) to the NHS (after all there were various pledges to existing UK recipients of EU funds) 2) Because of the rebate it wasn't ever £350m (the Remain problem being that saying "it's not £350m, it's £220m" didn't change the message that it was a big sounding number).
So Boris's message is apparently repeating "for the NHS", but where is he getting the £350m from?
Down the back of his sofa?
Or maybe he is proposing an Edward IV solution? I wouldn't put it past him...
Given that he doesn't mention Ireland once, perhaps he's planning to give NI to the EU to pay for.
Update. LD Conference forced through change to its Brexit debate on Sunday morning from a consultation to a debate on its policy. Activists looking to beef up its opposition to Brexit. Sinc epolicy decisions at LD Coneferences matter - worth watching the ramifications as Cable may find his hands tied before he gets his policy plans underway.
Austerity is effectively dead and has been ever since Corbyn campaigned on an anti austerity platform and May on a pro austerity platform and the Tories lost their majority and had to do a deal with the DUP who also wanted it eased. After 7 years it has had a good run and spending as a percentage of GDP has fallen from almost 50% of gdp to nearer 40% now and the public sector has had wage rises capped at 1% since then which will now move closer to the 2.1% average pay increase. Essentially the voters having supported austerity in 2010 by electing the Coalition and in 2015 by giving Cameron and Osborne a majority killed it by voting Leave in 2016 thus getting rid of Cameron and Osborne and then failing to give May and Hammond a majority in 2017.
Most likely the Tories will go into the next general election under a populist like Boris promising billions more for the NHS with funds to be taken from the EU and tax cuts and to keep the IHT tax cut and with the dementia tax nowhere to be seen and Labour of course will also still be anti austerity so whichever party wins austerity will be the loser
The pay cap has become politically unsustainable, so the government might as well make a virtue of necessity. The big improvement in public finances over the past 18 months gives them some room for manoeuvre.
The increase in pensions and the increase in public sector pay could be linked to inflation.
At the same time student loans interest could be linked to the same measure and the level above which repayments are made increased at the same rate.
The government could then make a declaration about 'fairness' and 'all in this together' and denouncing Osbornism.
I think this is more than likely and be ready for the
'We have to be fair to public sector workers but also fair to the taxpayer'
Off topic but has anyone heard of Ryanair cancelling 50 flights a day for the next month to allow crews to go on holiday. Apparently the airline 'texts' passengers to say their flight is cancelled and they can have a refund. No reference to compensation entitlements etc. There are 9,000 passengers stranded across Europe today alone and this is the daily number for the next 30 days Surely Ryanair's own Gerald Ratner moment Why would anyone trust them again ?
Basic incompetence. Hiring sub standard cheap staff having to live in bunk bedded rooms leads to a lack of staff co-operation. I wonder if we will find a loss of EU27 staff at the core of this. In this post Brexit vote world, employers in the UK really need to improve how they treat staff - ironic that the beneficiaries will be UK young people who largely voted against Brexit!
Austerity is effectively dead and has been ever since Corbyn campaigned on an anti austerity platform and May on a pro austerity platform and the Tories lost their majority and had to do a deal with the DUP who also wanted it eased. After 7 years it has had a good run and spending as a percentage of GDP has fallen from almost 50% of gdp to nearer 40% now and the public sector has had wage rises capped at 1% since then which will now move closer to the 2.1% average pay increase. Essentially the voters having supported austerity in 2010 by electing the Coalition and in 2015 by giving Cameron and Osborne a majority killed it by voting Leave in 2016 thus getting rid of Cameron and Osborne and then failing to give May and Hammond a majority in 2017.
Most likely the Tories will go into the next general election under a populist like Boris promising billions more for the NHS with funds to be taken from the EU and tax cuts and to keep the IHT tax cut and with the dementia tax nowhere to be seen and Labour of course will also still be anti austerity so whichever party wins austerity will be the loser
If the Parliament goes full term we will have left the EU and these options will have either been exercised or the savings used differently. Also the 2022 election would have a whole new political and economic circumstances to adapt to
Just one thing - there were two issues about the "£350m for the NHS" campaigning tool.
1) EU contributions might not be diverted (in part or in full) to the NHS (after all there were various pledges to existing UK recipients of EU funds) 2) Because of the rebate it wasn't ever £350m (the Remain problem being that saying "it's not £350m, it's £220m" didn't change the message that it was a big sounding number).
So Boris's message is apparently repeating "for the NHS", but where is he getting the £350m from?
Down the back of his sofa?
Or maybe he is proposing an Edward IV solution? I wouldn't put it past him...
Given that he doesn't mention Ireland once, perhaps he's planning to give NI to the EU to pay for.
I don't think Boris is a shrewd enough businessman to persuade even the EU to take a loss-making and dilapidated capital asset in exchange for writing off a large sum of ready cash, much though I have no doubt he would like to do it.
The irony of a champion of the referendum result proposing to hand over Northern Ireland maugre the wishes of its people would however be delicious!
If Boris is the best the Tory part have then both this country and the Conservative party are screwed. Boris is a nothing more than a disengenious lying tw*t who only cares about himself. The fact that people take him a serious politician let alone actually vote for him actually makes me weep. Anyway, the moron will probably get the boot from the good people of Uxbridge next time round.
Yes, austerity is dead. It was on its last legs anyway, the government had been struggling to get tough decisions through and even its own plans were pushing back the elimination of the deficit to 'probably never going to happen, so let's say another 10 years' territory, so I don't think the DUP deal was that significant in that regard, as the election result meant even if they'd sneaked a majority the Tories would have changed course because of how Labour rallied.
I found at least the attempt to continue austerity one of the major potential draws of them personally, so their offer is pretty lacking now, they can never compete with Labour on a spending plan.
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
Of course, xenophobic remarks like that will become impossible under a federal Europe. Because we will, literally, all be Dutch, German, French, etc. etc.
Another fine old British tradition lost to the EU.
(In case anyone doesn't realise, that post is meant to be humorous.)
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
This is key. "assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference' " The members contain a majority that are very upset with her. If she feeds that with a speech in Florence etc that demonstrates her tin ear to the party, it could be curtains on her career.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
Of course, xenophobic remarks like that will become impossible under a federal Europe. Because we will, literally, all be Dutch, German, French, etc. etc.
Another fine old British tradition lost to the EU.
(In case anyone doesn't realise, that post is meant to be humorous.)
You seem to be channelling your inner Boris well this morning.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
That is an interesting piece with some very good policy suggestions for helping the Tories out of their current sticky spot. It left out the one that would really help though. If you want a policy that will win over young people then reversing Brexit would really help.
Just because there is money for one set of bribes doesn't mean that there is money for all but it is hard to dispute David's central thesis that the credibility of Tories saying that there isn't any money has been seriously damaged.
For those that paid attention the excellent proposition that we are all in this together had already been fatally undermined by the absurd generosity of the triple lock which placed the burden of sorting out Browns mess exclusively on those in work and the young. It is a burden that they find hard to bear and kicking some of it down the road only makes things worse for the next generation.
It's a poor choice that the British people have but when you remember Corbyn opportunistically opposing the taking away of the winter fuel allowance from rich pensioners in the last campaign there is no alternative offered. The answer is a Tory party recommitted to sane finances. At the moment that is not on offer.
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
I tend to agree and I do not think he will have done himself any favours at this critical time. Actually I believe he has strengthened Theresa May's position especially as he published his thoughts on the day TM was dealing with another terrorist attack and generally accepted that she got the tone just right.
The narrative will turn next week to Theresa May and Macron co-hosting a summit in New York on terrorism and then her important speech in Florence.
If she comes through both of these well and has a good conference I would expect Boris will be offered Party Chairman (there is a vacancy) and would expect him to turn it down and return to the back benches. Then he will no doubt put himself forward for party leader when the vacancy arises unless he has decided to follow Osborne out to become Editor of the Telegraph
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
Of course, xenophobic remarks like that will become impossible under a federal Europe. Because we will, literally, all be Dutch, German, French, etc. etc.
Another fine old British tradition lost to the EU.
(In case anyone doesn't realise, that post is meant to be humorous.)
You seem to be channelling your inner Boris well this morning.
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.
Hunt was a remainer (although McVey very publicly supported leave).
While I think the divisions between camps can be overblown and will fade once we depart, I don't think May will be able to get away with all four top positions being held by those the membership will regard as lukewarm on Europe.
That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!
Do you really think Hammond would accept being moved back to the Foreign Office? His entire demeanour in the last five months has been of a man who has decided he has reached the only job he really wants and he is determined to hang on to it or walk completely, a la Darling. Rudd is a more likely possibility.
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
I would rather have TM as PM any day.
Politically, she has some shall we say politely less than mainstream views.
However, politically she would also be the most damaging choice imaginable for Labour. The first PM of Asiatic descent, the third woman PM - and both from the Tory party while Labour has only one EM leader in its history (against the Tories' three so far).
I would add however that while that would be funny that would also be the worst imaginable reason to vote for any candidate.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
I would rather have TM as PM any day.
Politically, she has some shall we say politely less than mainstream views.
However, politically she would also be the most damaging choice imaginable for Labour. The first PM of Asiatic descent, the third woman PM - and both from the Tory party while Labour has only one EM leader in its history (against the Tories' three so far).
I would add however that while that would be funny that would also be the worst imaginable reason to vote for any candidate.
PP ticks a lot of boxes but has a strong Maleficant vibe that will repel the voters.
That is an interesting piece with some very good policy suggestions for helping the Tories out of their current sticky spot. It left out the one that would really help though. If you want a policy that will win over young people then reversing Brexit would really help.
At the expense of losing those aged 40+.
There's a tendency, in political discussion, to think that people in their forties and fifties don't have many years left, when they actually have 30-40 years of voting ahead of them.
The government needs to fudge a combination of: austerity has kinda worked and is therefore no longer needed; austerity was the policy of the discredited non-person Osborne, we do things differently now; if you have the tax-raising and borrowing powers of a government it turns out that there may not be trees but there are at least some vigorous magic money bushes about the place.
"The conclusions to take from this are firstly, that large parts of the public don’t really understand big numbers and what they mean in real terms;" Keiran had a podcast guest a bit ago who was a bigass professor of economics, and he said even to him numbers like £30bn were too big to grasp.
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
Ho ho, ho, as a party member for 43 years (yes, I'm counting), my motives are rather deeper and mature than those you ascribe to me. Yep, I voted to remain but like 95% of my fellow Tories that did so, we accept the decision without demur. And I'd be perfectly content to have someone like Esther McV as the next leader. But not Johnson who would be a disaster.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
I would rather have TM as PM any day.
Politically, she has some shall we say politely less than mainstream views.
However, politically she would also be the most damaging choice imaginable for Labour. The first PM of Asiatic descent, the third woman PM - and both from the Tory party while Labour has only one EM leader in its history (against the Tories' three so far).
I would add however that while that would be funny that would also be the worst imaginable reason to vote for any candidate.
PP ticks a lot of boxes but has a strong Maleficant vibe that will repel the voters.
Sadly she has shown no sign of reforming her department.
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.
Hunt was a remainer (although McVey very publicly supported leave).
While I think the divisions between camps can be overblown and will fade once we depart, I don't think May will be able to get away with all four top positions being held by those the membership will regard as lukewarm on Europe.
That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!
Do you really think Hammond would accept being moved back to the Foreign Office? His entire demeanour in the last five months has been of a man who has decided he has reached the only job he really wants and he is determined to hang on to it or walk completely, a la Darling. Rudd is a more likely possibility.
Rudd as FS, Hunt as HS works for me too. Wouldn't get too fixated about who voted what in 2016.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.
That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!
Do you really think Hammond would accept being moved back to the Foreign Office? His entire demeanour in the last five months has been of a man who has decided he has reached the only job he really wants and he is determined to hang on to it or walk completely, a la Darling. Rudd is a more likely possibility.
Ah yes, I’d forgotten that Hammond had already done a stint at FCO, I wonder where Mrs May would put him if she wants to move him from Number 11 - the party chairman role that Boris had just turned down?
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
Ho ho, ho, as a party member for 43 years (yes, I'm counting), my motives are rather deeper and mature than those you ascribe to me. Yep, I voted to remain but like 95% of my fellow Tories that did so, we accept the decision without demur. And I'd be perfectly content to have someone like Esther McV as the next leader. But not Johnson who would be a disaster.
20 years as a member here and I agree with every word you said.
Although we might need to offer some counselling to Richard Nabavi, last night it dawned on him he might have to vote for David Davis as Tory leader/PM to stop Boris, he needed a lie down.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.
Hunt was a remainer (although McVey very publicly supported leave).
While I think the divisions between camps can be overblown and will fade once we depart, I don't think May will be able to get away with all four top positions being held by those the membership will regard as lukewarm on Europe.
That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!
Do you really think Hammond would accept being moved back to the Foreign Office? His entire demeanour in the last five months has been of a man who has decided he has reached the only job he really wants and he is determined to hang on to it or walk completely, a la Darling. Rudd is a more likely possibility.
Rudd as FS, Hunt as HS works for me too. Wouldn't get too fixated about who voted what in 2016.
Indeed, the Remainer May was on course for a landslide victory with Tory members until Mother Leadsom withdrew from the contest.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader.
Just like he was a disaster as Mayor?
He ran it as a CEO, focusing on getting good people in to run things (after he overcome Boles misfits).
Surely a good way to be party leader and PM?
PMs who delegate like Cameron are better than the micromanaging ones like Brown and May.
Correct and Cameron's biggest fault was that he delegated so much power to Osborne and did not create a fully meritocratic government, but instead we had an Osborne chumocracy.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader.
Just like he was a disaster as Mayor?
He ran it as a CEO, focusing on getting good people in to run things (after he overcome Boles misfits).
Surely a good way to be party leader and PM?
PMs who delegate like Cameron are better than the micromanaging ones like Brown and May.
Bit different being PM (even on this narrow point). As Mayor he doesn't have to limit his people "running things" to elected politicians and the existing bureaucracy.
And it's not like the Mayor really has responsibility for much that they can really screw up anyway.
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
Ho ho, ho, as a party member for 43 years (yes, I'm counting), my motives are rather deeper and mature than those you ascribe to me. Yep, I voted to remain but like 95% of my fellow Tories that did so, we accept the decision without demur. And I'd be perfectly content to have someone like Esther McV as the next leader. But not Johnson who would be a disaster.
20 years as a member here and I agree with every word you said.
Although we might need to offer some counselling to Richard Nabavi, last night it dawned on him he might have to vote for David Davis as Tory leader/PM to stop Boris, he needed a lie down.
Richard can go to second place for that therapist!! You see, that's why Mrs May simply MUST continue for a little while longer.....
Of course, you might with some justice point out that simply being elected as a Conservative in a city noted for being left-wing was an achievement. However, he was also perhaps fortunate in his opponent, a rather tired and stale politician with an indifferent track record whose blokeish persona was wearing rather thin.
To be a successful PM you need to be more than a good campaigner. You need to have energy, determination and administrative talent. Not only has Boris not demonstrated he has these, he has frequently demonstrated he doesn't have them. That, apart from any other reason, is why he's at the Foreign Office where administrative talent isn't important.
I agree he would be a better PM than Corbyn, as he is at least intelligent. I also strongly suspect in a straight fight between the two he would win easily based on his wider experience and considerably higher profile. Perhaps not quite Macmillan vs Gaitskell 1959, but arguably Baldwin vs Attlee, who had barely time to move out of Lansbury's shadow in 1935.
But in other crucial ways he is very like Corbyn or for that matter Donald Trump. He says what his core constituency wants to hear even though in practice he doesn't care much about it (Brexit/Trident) he makes a lot of noise but there's never any substance behind it (NHS/tuition fees) he's from an extremely wealthy and privileged background and has adopted the London mentality and outlook, and he's utterly clueless on the real problems we face - indeed, there's no sign either of them have actually grasped what they are (neither have put forward meaningful proposals on coping with a rapidly ageing population or the looming electricity generation shortages).
And for that reason, I think he would be a disastrous PM. And I think the PCP know that too and would block him from the final round.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.
Great suggestion on Esther Mcvey. Hunt has failed to substantially tackle bed blocking and needs to go.
So 32% would prefer Boris to Corbyn ie exactly the same as would vote Tory in Scotland under Boris so thanks for confirming my point. With Boris taking the Tories higher against Corbyn in the UK than any other alternative leader and the SNP still miles behind the 50% they got in 2015 clearly Boris is not toxic in Scotland as you claim
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
Ho ho, ho, as a party member for 43 years (yes, I'm counting), my motives are rather deeper and mature than those you ascribe to me. Yep, I voted to remain but like 95% of my fellow Tories that did so, we accept the decision without demur. And I'd be perfectly content to have someone like Esther McV as the next leader. But not Johnson who would be a disaster.
20 years as a member here and I agree with every word you said.
Although we might need to offer some counselling to Richard Nabavi, last night it dawned on him he might have to vote for David Davis as Tory leader/PM to stop Boris, he needed a lie down.
Richard can go to second place for that therapist!! You see, that's why Mrs May simply MUST continue for a little while longer.....
Although Boris is doing his best to make sure I win £100, so he's not all that bad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.
That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!
Do you really think Hammond would accept being moved back to the Foreign Office? His entire demeanour in the last five months has been of a man who has decided he has reached the only job he really wants and he is determined to hang on to it or walk completely, a la Darling. Rudd is a more likely possibility.
Ah yes, I’d forgotten that Hammond had already done a stint at FCO, I wonder where Mrs May would put him if she wants to move him from Number 11 - the party chairman role that Boris had just turned down?
If she moved him, I rather suspect he'd walk straight to the backbenches. And that's why I don't think he's going anywhere. He is still, despite recent events, the one really significant figure in the government who commands widespread respect, and could lead a putsch against her. Remember Hacker - sacked Cabinet ministers don't even have to pretend to be loyal. As he has more sense than Osborne however I doubt if he would pose as a long-term sulker, rather as the person who could unite the party in the national interest.
If only he had Boris' charisma, or Boris had his ability as an administrator...
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
Ho ho, ho, as a party member for 43 years (yes, I'm counting), my motives are rather deeper and mature than those you ascribe to me. Yep, I voted to remain but like 95% of my fellow Tories that did so, we accept the decision without demur. And I'd be perfectly content to have someone like Esther McV as the next leader. But not Johnson who would be a disaster.
20 years as a member here and I agree with every word you said.
Although we might need to offer some counselling to Richard Nabavi, last night it dawned on him he might have to vote for David Davis as Tory leader/PM to stop Boris, he needed a lie down.
Richard can go to second place for that therapist!! You see, that's why Mrs May simply MUST continue for a little while longer.....
Although Boris is doing his best to make sure I win £100, so he's not all that bad.
You'd sell your soul for another scrummy lunch at St Pancras!!
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.
Great suggestion on Esther Mcvey. Hunt has failed to substantially tackle bed blocking and needs to go.
I seem to recall that when he was kept - one of the few to keep his old job - there was a very strong rumour that May had wanted to replace him with Crabb and sack him as she had Osborne. But Crabb's marital difficulties put paid to that.
I can't see him being promoted to the Foreign Office on her watch, leaving aside his stance on the referendum.
Of course if she wanted to be really provocative she could offer it to Hilary Benn..he would refuse, but it would probably annoy Corbyn.
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
I absolutely agree that Hammond and Davis are not my choice.
I also reserve judgement on Boris but would hope in the next two years a star will be born from the newer intake
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
I absolutely agree that Hammond and Davis are not my choice.
I also reserve judgement on Boris but would hope in the next two years a star will be born from the newer intake
Tom Tugenhadt has potential but needs a big job first
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
I absolutely agree that Hammond and Davis are not my choice.
I also reserve judgement on Boris but would hope in the next two years a star will be born from the newer intake
Tom Tugenhadt has potential but needs a big job first
He is endorsed by JRM as being, among other things, a devout Catholic, so may have unpalatable beliefs like JRM.
Of course, you might with some justice point out that simply being elected as a Conservative in a city noted for being left-wing was an achievement. However, he was also perhaps fortunate in his opponent, a rather tired and stale politician with an indifferent track record whose blokeish persona was wearing rather thin.
To be a successful PM you need to be more than a good campaigner. You need to have energy, determination and administrative talent. Not only has Boris not demonstrated he has these, he has frequently demonstrated he doesn't have them. That, apart from any other reason, is why he's at the Foreign Office where administrative talent isn't important.
I agree he would be a better PM than Corbyn, as he is at least intelligent. I also strongly suspect in a straight fight between the two he would win easily based on his wider experience and considerably higher profile. Perhaps not quite Macmillan vs Gaitskell 1959, but arguably Baldwin vs Attlee, who had barely time to move out of Lansbury's shadow in 1935.
But in other crucial ways he is very like Corbyn or for that matter Donald Trump. He says what his core constituency wants to hear even though in practice he doesn't care much about it (Brexit/Trident) he makes a lot of noise but there's never any substance behind it (NHS/tuition fees) he's from an extremely wealthy and privileged background and has adopted the London mentality and outlook, and he's utterly clueless on the real problems we face - indeed, there's no sign either of them have actually grasped what they are (neither have put forward meaningful proposals on coping with a rapidly ageing population or the looming electricity generation shortages).
And for that reason, I think he would be a disastrous PM. And I think the PCP know that too and would block him from the final round.
I am not looking for a brilliant PM just someone to stop Corbyn, as I said last night if Boris beats Corbyn and Labour then pick someone like Umunna Boris would find it downhill from there but he would have done the job required
The PCP want to ultimately beat Corbyn above all else too
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
I absolutely agree that Hammond and Davis are not my choice.
I also reserve judgement on Boris but would hope in the next two years a star will be born from the newer intake
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
I absolutely agree that Hammond and Davis are not my choice.
I also reserve judgement on Boris but would hope in the next two years a star will be born from the newer intake
Tom Tugenhadt has potential but needs a big job first
He is endorsed by JRM as being, among other things, a devout Catholic, so may have unpalatable beliefs like JRM.
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.
Very able but held back by Cameron/Osborne and May.
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.
Very able but held back by Cameron/Osborne and May.
Held back by Cameron and Osborne? That would be the Cameron and Osborne that urged him to become an MP and made him a minister? That Cameron and Osborne?
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.
Very able but held back by Cameron/Osborne and May.
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.
He came over well the last time I saw him. I do believe options will become more obvious as the clock ticks down to March 2019 and I also hope the candidate/s are from the newer intake
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.
He came over well the last time I saw him. I do believe options will become more obvious as the clock ticks down to March 2019 and I also hope the candidate/s are from the newer intake
surely youd perfer someone with a bit of ministerial experience like Raab rather than abackbencher no one has heard of
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow Tories
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.
He came over well the last time I saw him. I do believe options will become more obvious as the clock ticks down to March 2019 and I also hope the candidate/s are from the newer intake
surely youd perfer someone with a bit of ministerial experience like Raab rather than abackbencher no one has heard of
Yes of course but most of all someone who can capture the public and defeat Corbyn
Of course, you might with some justice point out that simply being elected as a Conservative in a city noted for being left-wing was an achievement. However, he was also perhaps fortunate in his opponent, a rather tired and stale politician with an indifferent track record whose blokeish persona was wearing rather thin.
To be a successful PM you need to be more than a good campaigner. You need to have energy, determination and administrative talent. Not only has Boris not demonstrated he has these, he has frequently demonstrated he doesn't have them. That, apart from any other reason, is why he's at the Foreign Office where administrative talent isn't important.
I agree he would be a better PM than Corbyn, as he is at least intelligent. I also strongly suspect in a straight fight between the two he would win easily based on his wider experience and considerably higher profile. Perhaps not quite Macmillan vs Gaitskell 1959, but arguably Baldwin vs Attlee, who had barely time to move out of Lansbury's shadow in 1935.
But in other crucial ways he is very like Corbyn or for that matter Donald Trump. He says what his core constituency wants to hear even though in practice he doesn't care much about it (Brexit/Trident) he makes a lot of noise but there's never any substance behind it (NHS/tuition fees) he's from an extremely wealthy and privileged background and has adopted the London mentality and outlook, and he's utterly clueless on the real problems we face - indeed, there's no sign either of them have actually grasped what they are (neither have put forward meaningful proposals on coping with a rapidly ageing population or the looming electricity generation shortages).
And for that reason, I think he would be a disastrous PM. And I think the PCP know that too and would block him from the final round.
I am not looking for a brilliant PM just someone to stop Corbyn, as I said last night if Boris beats Corbyn and Labour then pick someone like Umunna Boris would find it downhill from there but he would have done the job required
The PCP want to ultimately beat Corbyn above all else too
It is misguided if the Government's main priority is to prevent the leader of the opposition to become prime minister!
Comments
1) EU contributions might not be diverted (in part or in full) to the NHS (after all there were various pledges to existing UK recipients of EU funds)
2) Because of the rebate it wasn't ever £350m (the Remain problem being that saying "it's not £350m, it's £220m" didn't change the message that it was a big sounding number).
So Boris's message is apparently repeating "for the NHS", but where is he getting the £350m from?
Tom Rolt in 1974 commented bitterly that we could not look for salvation from the two main political parties, whose sole purpose was to gain an ever-increasing slice of an ever-diminishing pie for their supporters. Never has that been more true than in the last ten years. Brown didn't care about anyone who didn't vote Labour - indeed, he actively hated them, as we can see with his treatment of Field's welfare reforms and blithe abolition of the 10p tax band to fund his lower-middle-class supporters, which without the campaigning of ironically, Field would have savaged those on lower incomes - and Corbyn is worse. Osborne was quite happy to screw over students to support pensioners, reasoning that the latter voted for him and the former didn't.
Do you ever get the feeling that as a country we're more fucked than a prostitute in a Game of Thrones episode?
We can all think what we may of his article, but he should really have held it back a day or two if he wanted to lead the news.
David is an excellent conservative and an example to the rest of us. I would also say Nick is the same for labour
The pay cap has become politically unsustainable, so the government might as well make a virtue of necessity. The big improvement in public finances over the past 18 months gives them some room for manoeuvre.
EU = Trev
Difficult not to read it and think that:
a) this is a massive pitch for the leadership
b) It is exactly the kind of stuff that was missing from May's GE campaign (whether you actually agree with it or not - I am thinking the tone and voice, the 'marching towards the sounds of gunfire' spirit) .
c) campaigning in this kind of manner and tone would give Jezza a almighty battle on his hands.
But there was also profligacy in other areas.
Was it a coincidence that the profligacy was on the pet projects of Cameron and Osborne and on groups that voted Conservative ?
Or maybe he is proposing an Edward IV solution? I wouldn't put it past him...
At the same time student loans interest could be linked to the same measure and the level above which repayments are made increased at the same rate.
The government could then make a declaration about 'fairness' and 'all in this together' and denouncing Osbornism.
Apparently the airline 'texts' passengers to say their flight is cancelled and they can have a refund. No reference to compensation entitlements etc.
There are 9,000 passengers stranded across Europe today alone and this is the daily number for the next 30 days
Surely Ryanair's own Gerald Ratner moment
Why would anyone trust them again ?
Most likely the Tories will go into the next general election under a populist like Boris promising billions more for the NHS with funds to be taken from the EU and tax cuts and to keep the IHT tax cut and with the dementia tax nowhere to be seen and Labour of course will also still be anti austerity so whichever party wins austerity will be the loser
'We have to be fair to public sector workers but also fair to the taxpayer'
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
The irony of a champion of the referendum result proposing to hand over Northern Ireland maugre the wishes of its people would however be delicious!
No way would I book a flight with Ryanair in the future after this shambles and complete disregard to the 270,000 passengers who will be affected
I found at least the attempt to continue austerity one of the major potential draws of them personally, so their offer is pretty lacking now, they can never compete with Labour on a spending plan.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Another fine old British tradition lost to the EU.
(In case anyone doesn't realise, that post is meant to be humorous.)
And then try and imagine anyone else being able to stop Corbyn.
It's not on offer though. The Tory client vote have the party by the balls and they're not letting go.
The members contain a majority that are very upset with her. If she feeds that with a speech in Florence etc that demonstrates her tin ear to the party, it could be curtains on her career.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!
For those that paid attention the excellent proposition that we are all in this together had already been fatally undermined by the absurd generosity of the triple lock which placed the burden of sorting out Browns mess exclusively on those in work and the young. It is a burden that they find hard to bear and kicking some of it down the road only makes things worse for the next generation.
It's a poor choice that the British people have but when you remember Corbyn opportunistically opposing the taking away of the winter fuel allowance from rich pensioners in the last campaign there is no alternative offered. The answer is a Tory party recommitted to sane finances. At the moment that is not on offer.
The narrative will turn next week to Theresa May and Macron co-hosting a summit in New York on terrorism and then her important speech in Florence.
If she comes through both of these well and has a good conference I would expect Boris will be offered Party Chairman (there is a vacancy) and would expect him to turn it down and return to the back benches. Then he will no doubt put himself forward for party leader when the vacancy arises unless he has decided to follow Osborne out to become Editor of the Telegraph
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
While I think the divisions between camps can be overblown and will fade once we depart, I don't think May will be able to get away with all four top positions being held by those the membership will regard as lukewarm on Europe. Do you really think Hammond would accept being moved back to the Foreign Office? His entire demeanour in the last five months has been of a man who has decided he has reached the only job he really wants and he is determined to hang on to it or walk completely, a la Darling. Rudd is a more likely possibility.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
However, politically she would also be the most damaging choice imaginable for Labour. The first PM of Asiatic descent, the third woman PM - and both from the Tory party while Labour has only one EM leader in its history (against the Tories' three so far).
I would add however that while that would be funny that would also be the worst imaginable reason to vote for any candidate.
There's a tendency, in political discussion, to think that people in their forties and fifties don't have many years left, when they actually have 30-40 years of voting ahead of them.
"The conclusions to take from this are firstly, that large parts of the public don’t really understand big numbers and what they mean in real terms;" Keiran had a podcast guest a bit ago who was a bigass professor of economics, and he said even to him numbers like £30bn were too big to grasp.
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership
PMs who delegate like Cameron are better than the micromanaging ones like Brown and May.
Although we might need to offer some counselling to Richard Nabavi, last night it dawned on him he might have to vote for David Davis as Tory leader/PM to stop Boris, he needed a lie down.
And it's not like the Mayor really has responsibility for much that they can really screw up anyway.
https://www.bdonline.co.uk/boris-johnson-assessing-his-legacy/5081178.article
Of course, you might with some justice point out that simply being elected as a Conservative in a city noted for being left-wing was an achievement. However, he was also perhaps fortunate in his opponent, a rather tired and stale politician with an indifferent track record whose blokeish persona was wearing rather thin.
To be a successful PM you need to be more than a good campaigner. You need to have energy, determination and administrative talent. Not only has Boris not demonstrated he has these, he has frequently demonstrated he doesn't have them. That, apart from any other reason, is why he's at the Foreign Office where administrative talent isn't important.
I agree he would be a better PM than Corbyn, as he is at least intelligent. I also strongly suspect in a straight fight between the two he would win easily based on his wider experience and considerably higher profile. Perhaps not quite Macmillan vs Gaitskell 1959, but arguably Baldwin vs Attlee, who had barely time to move out of Lansbury's shadow in 1935.
But in other crucial ways he is very like Corbyn or for that matter Donald Trump. He says what his core constituency wants to hear even though in practice he doesn't care much about it (Brexit/Trident) he makes a lot of noise but there's never any substance behind it (NHS/tuition fees) he's from an extremely wealthy and privileged background and has adopted the London mentality and outlook, and he's utterly clueless on the real problems we face - indeed, there's no sign either of them have actually grasped what they are (neither have put forward meaningful proposals on coping with a rapidly ageing population or the looming electricity generation shortages).
And for that reason, I think he would be a disastrous PM. And I think the PCP know that too and would block him from the final round.
So 32% would prefer Boris to Corbyn ie exactly the same as would vote Tory in Scotland under Boris so thanks for confirming my point. With Boris taking the Tories higher against Corbyn in the UK than any other alternative leader and the SNP still miles behind the 50% they got in 2015 clearly Boris is not toxic in Scotland as you claim
If only he had Boris' charisma, or Boris had his ability as an administrator...
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
I can't see him being promoted to the Foreign Office on her watch, leaving aside his stance on the referendum.
Of course if she wanted to be really provocative she could offer it to Hilary Benn..he would refuse, but it would probably annoy Corbyn.
I also reserve judgement on Boris but would hope in the next two years a star will be born from the newer intake
The PCP want to ultimately beat Corbyn above all else too
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/908651279836176385