politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The DUP deal has cost a lot more than £2bn: it’s blown apart t
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Just one thing - there were two issues about the "£350m for the NHS" campaigning tool.
1) EU contributions might not be diverted (in part or in full) to the NHS (after all there were various pledges to existing UK recipients of EU funds)
2) Because of the rebate it wasn't ever £350m (the Remain problem being that saying "it's not £350m, it's £220m" didn't change the message that it was a big sounding number).
So Boris's message is apparently repeating "for the NHS", but where is he getting the £350m from?0 -
Sadly still works that way too.Dura_Ace said:
There's no point in having aVinny said:The basic problem is that PB used to be an interesting site with balanced, informative commentary. No longer. It reads like the Guardian these days: all left-leaning and myopic. It badly needs counterpoint.
rightleft wing view on anything in the UK.RWLW politics in this country is morally and intellectually defunct.Thatcher and CameronBlair and Wilson were able to articulate a vision that seemed relevant to the future. This lot are tilling the earth with salt in the name ofBrexit'the people' and have an increasingly ugly streak ofsocial conservatismsectarianism.
Tom Rolt in 1974 commented bitterly that we could not look for salvation from the two main political parties, whose sole purpose was to gain an ever-increasing slice of an ever-diminishing pie for their supporters. Never has that been more true than in the last ten years. Brown didn't care about anyone who didn't vote Labour - indeed, he actively hated them, as we can see with his treatment of Field's welfare reforms and blithe abolition of the 10p tax band to fund his lower-middle-class supporters, which without the campaigning of ironically, Field would have savaged those on lower incomes - and Corbyn is worse. Osborne was quite happy to screw over students to support pensioners, reasoning that the latter voted for him and the former didn't.
Do you ever get the feeling that as a country we're more fucked than a prostitute in a Game of Thrones episode?0 -
It really is incredible that people talk of 'austerity' when the government has borrowed over a trillion quid during the last decade, when house prices and retail spending are at record highs, when coffee shops and hotels and continually increasing and when the UK has been running an annual £100bn current account deficit.Sandpit said:
Yep, government spending actually went up every year from 2010 - 2015, helped along by the massive increase in the “Department” of debt interest.another_richard said:Austerity never happened.
There were cuts and there were pay-caps but most of all there was profligacy.
With the benefit of hindsight, what we should have done is what happened in Ireland, with large actual cuts in government salaries, pensions and benefits. This gave the couple of years’ breathing space necessary for the government’s finances to adjust to the new reality.
Of course, life would have been better if we hadn’t been running deficits when the recession hit in the first place, but as Corbyn discovered people will vote for free sweeties.0 -
It was because of Boris that I voted Tory for the first time ever in 2008
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Whilst politically the article is arguably correct, £2bn is a rounding error in Government finances, and they find large sums all the time for pet projects. Austerity or no austerity. It wouldn't be difficult to find Cam/Osborne pledges that by the same logic would have "blown apart their economic case"0
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What did he expect when the army had just been deployed?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Also poor old Boris getting little coverage in the broadcast media due to their saturation coverage of the terror attackBig_G_NorthWales said:
The blame, if it comes to blame, will depend entirely on who the public feel are responsible for a hard Brexit.RochdalePioneers said:Boris is delusional but he isn't the only one. We simply cannot have hard Brexit from the EU in 2019 without at the very least a massive economic shock and snap depression. And that's the best case scenario as economies recover even from a deep depression, providing they are still able to trade.
Yet the Tories keep insisting that is we wish hard enough the EU will cave in and problems like 5 years for a customs set-up won't matter. There are still a large number of voters backing this approach, I've seen messages sent to a Labour MP up here denouncing them for voting against the second reading of the May enabling act.
But by the time we have an election if we have hard Brexit those voters won't be saying that. Instead they will be demanding blood having been lied to about how the EU will give is our freedom and the sunlit uplands lie over the fence. When they realise the uplands are on fire and there is no food the mood will change. And the people to blame will be the Tories.
Hard Brexit is an Extinction Level Event for any politician / party who backs it. Even if he doesn't become PM you can see Boris forcing May's hand which is already clutching the tiller towards the cliff edge. Who was that civil servant who said I'm fucked you're fucked the party's fucked? That's the Tories.
Popcorn anyone?
If the UK government makes a fair offer to the EU (possibly even by Theresa May in Florence next week) and the EU continue to play hard ball it is more than probable the public will insist on the UK walking away, no matter what the economic consequencies are for the UK and indeed the EU
We can all think what we may of his article, but he should really have held it back a day or two if he wanted to lead the news.0 -
David's post just before the election was so succinct and raised my concern considerably that within hours my instinct told me TM would not get her increased majority. Indeed in several posts leading up to the exit poll I did say her majority had gone.Yorkcity said:David Herdson thank you yet again for your articles .You seem to me a thought provoking conservative and they are very lucky to have you as a member.I will always remember your post just before the election this year when you said this was not the expected forgone conclusion.The party needs more like you listening on the ground outside the Westminster arena.
David is an excellent conservative and an example to the rest of us. I would also say Nick is the same for labour0 -
I wonder if the time of publication is actually intentional. Boris quietly sets out the "advantages" of a hard Brexit. Next week in Florence May sets out the preferred "fair" option and we leave things to the EU to decide...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Also poor old Boris getting little coverage in the broadcast media due to their saturation coverage of the terror attackBig_G_NorthWales said:
The blame, if it comes to blame, will depend entirely on who the public feel are responsible for a hard Brexit.RochdalePioneers said:Boris is delusional but he isn't the only one. We simply cannot have hard Brexit from the EU in 2019 without at the very least a massive economic shock and snap depression. And that's the best case scenario as economies recover even from a deep depression, providing they are still able to trade.
Yet the Tories keep insisting that is we wish hard enough the EU will cave in and problems like 5 years for a customs set-up won't matter. There are still a large number of voters backing this approach, I've seen messages sent to a Labour MP up here denouncing them for voting against the second reading of the May enabling act.
But by the time we have an election if we have hard Brexit those voters won't be saying that. Instead they will be demanding blood having been lied to about how the EU will give is our freedom and the sunlit uplands lie over the fence. When they realise the uplands are on fire and there is no food the mood will change. And the people to blame will be the Tories.
Hard Brexit is an Extinction Level Event for any politician / party who backs it. Even if he doesn't become PM you can see Boris forcing May's hand which is already clutching the tiller towards the cliff edge. Who was that civil servant who said I'm fucked you're fucked the party's fucked? That's the Tories.
Popcorn anyone?
If the UK government makes a fair offer to the EU (possibly even by Theresa May in Florence next week) and the EU continue to play hard ball it is more than probable the public will insist on the UK walking away, no matter what the economic consequencies are for the UK and indeed the EU
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The pay cap has become politically unsustainable, so the government might as well make a virtue of necessity. The big improvement in public finances over the past 18 months gives them some room for manoeuvre.0 -
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Looking at Government spending as a whole (even ignoring debt interest) austerity hasn't really happened. However it is simply false to argue that certain sectors of Government funding, in particular those involving Local Government, haven't been hit very hard indeed. Whatever slight of financial hand the Government have tried to employ to cover this up ("spending power", adding huge areas of additional spending responsibility in cases where they have supplied extra funding etc).another_richard said:
It really is incredible that people talk of 'austerity' when the government has borrowed over a trillion quid during the last decade, when house prices and retail spending are at record highs, when coffee shops and hotels and continually increasing and when the UK has been running an annual £100bn current account deficit.Sandpit said:
Yep, government spending actually went up every year from 2010 - 2015, helped along by the massive increase in the “Department” of debt interest.another_richard said:Austerity never happened.
There were cuts and there were pay-caps but most of all there was profligacy.
With the benefit of hindsight, what we should have done is what happened in Ireland, with large actual cuts in government salaries, pensions and benefits. This gave the couple of years’ breathing space necessary for the government’s finances to adjust to the new reality.
Of course, life would have been better if we hadn’t been running deficits when the recession hit in the first place, but as Corbyn discovered people will vote for free sweeties.0 -
UK = Little MoSunil_Prasannan said:£2 bn is a lot, lot less than the divorce bill the EU want us to pay them!
UK = responsible hard-working spouse
EU = profligate gold-digger
EU = Trev
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Just read Boris article. It's an amazing piece of optimism and can-do spirit.
Difficult not to read it and think that:
a) this is a massive pitch for the leadership
b) It is exactly the kind of stuff that was missing from May's GE campaign (whether you actually agree with it or not - I am thinking the tone and voice, the 'marching towards the sounds of gunfire' spirit) .
c) campaigning in this kind of manner and tone would give Jezza a almighty battle on his hands.0 -
As I said below there were cuts and pay-caps.alex. said:
Looking at Government spending as a whole (even ignoring debt interest) austerity hasn't really happened. However it is simply false to argue that certain sectors of Government funding, in particular those involving Local Government, haven't been hit very hard indeed. Whatever slight of financial hand the Government have tried to employ ("spending power", adding huge areas of additional spending responsibility in cases where they have supplied extra funding etc).another_richard said:
It really is incredible that people talk of 'austerity' when the government has borrowed over a trillion quid during the last decade, when house prices and retail spending are at record highs, when coffee shops and hotels and continually increasing and when the UK has been running an annual £100bn current account deficit.Sandpit said:
Yep, government spending actually went up every year from 2010 - 2015, helped along by the massive increase in the “Department” of debt interest.another_richard said:Austerity never happened.
There were cuts and there were pay-caps but most of all there was profligacy.
With the benefit of hindsight, what we should have done is what happened in Ireland, with large actual cuts in government salaries, pensions and benefits. This gave the couple of years’ breathing space necessary for the government’s finances to adjust to the new reality.
Of course, life would have been better if we hadn’t been running deficits when the recession hit in the first place, but as Corbyn discovered people will vote for free sweeties.
But there was also profligacy in other areas.
Was it a coincidence that the profligacy was on the pet projects of Cameron and Osborne and on groups that voted Conservative ?
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True - doesn't solve the problem that the Government is living beyond its means and we are about to hit another recession.Sean_F said:
The pay cap has become politically unsustainable, so the government might as well make a virtue of necessity. The big improvement in public finances over the past 18 months gives them some room for manoeuvre.0 -
Down the back of his sofa?alex. said:Just one thing - there were two issues about the "£350m for the NHS" campaigning tool.
1) EU contributions might not be diverted (in part or in full) to the NHS (after all there were various pledges to existing UK recipients of EU funds)
2) Because of the rebate it wasn't ever £350m (the Remain problem being that saying "it's not £350m, it's £220m" didn't change the message that it was a big sounding number).
So Boris's message is apparently repeating "for the NHS", but where is he getting the £350m from?
Or maybe he is proposing an Edward IV solution? I wouldn't put it past him...0 -
The increase in pensions and the increase in public sector pay could be linked to inflation.Sean_F said:
The pay cap has become politically unsustainable, so the government might as well make a virtue of necessity. The big improvement in public finances over the past 18 months gives them some room for manoeuvre.
At the same time student loans interest could be linked to the same measure and the level above which repayments are made increased at the same rate.
The government could then make a declaration about 'fairness' and 'all in this together' and denouncing Osbornism.0 -
Given that he doesn't mention Ireland once, perhaps he's planning to give NI to the EU to pay for.ydoethur said:
Down the back of his sofa?alex. said:Just one thing - there were two issues about the "£350m for the NHS" campaigning tool.
1) EU contributions might not be diverted (in part or in full) to the NHS (after all there were various pledges to existing UK recipients of EU funds)
2) Because of the rebate it wasn't ever £350m (the Remain problem being that saying "it's not £350m, it's £220m" didn't change the message that it was a big sounding number).
So Boris's message is apparently repeating "for the NHS", but where is he getting the £350m from?
Or maybe he is proposing an Edward IV solution? I wouldn't put it past him...0 -
Off topic but has anyone heard of Ryanair cancelling 50 flights a day for the next month to allow crews to go on holiday.
Apparently the airline 'texts' passengers to say their flight is cancelled and they can have a refund. No reference to compensation entitlements etc.
There are 9,000 passengers stranded across Europe today alone and this is the daily number for the next 30 days
Surely Ryanair's own Gerald Ratner moment
Why would anyone trust them again ?0 -
Update. LD Conference forced through change to its Brexit debate on Sunday morning from a consultation to a debate on its policy. Activists looking to beef up its opposition to Brexit. Sinc epolicy decisions at LD Coneferences matter - worth watching the ramifications as Cable may find his hands tied before he gets his policy plans underway.0
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Austerity is effectively dead and has been ever since Corbyn campaigned on an anti austerity platform and May on a pro austerity platform and the Tories lost their majority and had to do a deal with the DUP who also wanted it eased. After 7 years it has had a good run and spending as a percentage of GDP has fallen from almost 50% of gdp to nearer 40% now and the public sector has had wage rises capped at 1% since then which will now move closer to the 2.1% average pay increase. Essentially the voters having supported austerity in 2010 by electing the Coalition and in 2015 by giving Cameron and Osborne a majority killed it by voting Leave in 2016 thus getting rid of Cameron and Osborne and then failing to give May and Hammond a majority in 2017.
Most likely the Tories will go into the next general election under a populist like Boris promising billions more for the NHS with funds to be taken from the EU and tax cuts and to keep the IHT tax cut and with the dementia tax nowhere to be seen and Labour of course will also still be anti austerity so whichever party wins austerity will be the loser0 -
I think this is more than likely and be ready for theanother_richard said:
The increase in pensions and the increase in public sector pay could be linked to inflation.Sean_F said:
The pay cap has become politically unsustainable, so the government might as well make a virtue of necessity. The big improvement in public finances over the past 18 months gives them some room for manoeuvre.
At the same time student loans interest could be linked to the same measure and the level above which repayments are made increased at the same rate.
The government could then make a declaration about 'fairness' and 'all in this together' and denouncing Osbornism.
'We have to be fair to public sector workers but also fair to the taxpayer'0 -
EU = Jennifer Tilly's character in "Liar Liar".Dura_Ace said:
UK = Little MoSunil_Prasannan said:£2 bn is a lot, lot less than the divorce bill the EU want us to pay them!
UK = responsible hard-working spouse
EU = profligate gold-digger
EU = Trev0 -
Basic incompetence. Hiring sub standard cheap staff having to live in bunk bedded rooms leads to a lack of staff co-operation. I wonder if we will find a loss of EU27 staff at the core of this. In this post Brexit vote world, employers in the UK really need to improve how they treat staff - ironic that the beneficiaries will be UK young people who largely voted against Brexit!Big_G_NorthWales said:Off topic but has anyone heard of Ryanair cancelling 50 flights a day for the next month to allow crews to go on holiday.
Apparently the airline 'texts' passengers to say their flight is cancelled and they can have a refund. No reference to compensation entitlements etc.
There are 9,000 passengers stranded across Europe today alone and this is the daily number for the next 30 days
Surely Ryanair's own Gerald Ratner moment
Why would anyone trust them again ?
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Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.0 -
Oh awesome, I have a number of Ryanair flights over the next 4-5 weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:Off topic but has anyone heard of Ryanair cancelling 50 flights a day for the next month to allow crews to go on holiday.
Apparently the airline 'texts' passengers to say their flight is cancelled and they can have a refund. No reference to compensation entitlements etc.
There are 9,000 passengers stranded across Europe today alone and this is the daily number for the next 30 days
Surely Ryanair's own Gerald Ratner moment
Why would anyone trust them again ?0 -
<
If the Parliament goes full term we will have left the EU and these options will have either been exercised or the savings used differently. Also the 2022 election would have a whole new political and economic circumstances to adapt toHYUFD said:Austerity is effectively dead and has been ever since Corbyn campaigned on an anti austerity platform and May on a pro austerity platform and the Tories lost their majority and had to do a deal with the DUP who also wanted it eased. After 7 years it has had a good run and spending as a percentage of GDP has fallen from almost 50% of gdp to nearer 40% now and the public sector has had wage rises capped at 1% since then which will now move closer to the 2.1% average pay increase. Essentially the voters having supported austerity in 2010 by electing the Coalition and in 2015 by giving Cameron and Osborne a majority killed it by voting Leave in 2016 thus getting rid of Cameron and Osborne and then failing to give May and Hammond a majority in 2017.
Most likely the Tories will go into the next general election under a populist like Boris promising billions more for the NHS with funds to be taken from the EU and tax cuts and to keep the IHT tax cut and with the dementia tax nowhere to be seen and Labour of course will also still be anti austerity so whichever party wins austerity will be the loser0 -
I don't think Boris is a shrewd enough businessman to persuade even the EU to take a loss-making and dilapidated capital asset in exchange for writing off a large sum of ready cash, much though I have no doubt he would like to do it.williamglenn said:
Given that he doesn't mention Ireland once, perhaps he's planning to give NI to the EU to pay for.ydoethur said:
Down the back of his sofa?alex. said:Just one thing - there were two issues about the "£350m for the NHS" campaigning tool.
1) EU contributions might not be diverted (in part or in full) to the NHS (after all there were various pledges to existing UK recipients of EU funds)
2) Because of the rebate it wasn't ever £350m (the Remain problem being that saying "it's not £350m, it's £220m" didn't change the message that it was a big sounding number).
So Boris's message is apparently repeating "for the NHS", but where is he getting the £350m from?
Or maybe he is proposing an Edward IV solution? I wouldn't put it past him...
The irony of a champion of the referendum result proposing to hand over Northern Ireland maugre the wishes of its people would however be delicious!0 -
If Boris is the best the Tory part have then both this country and the Conservative party are screwed. Boris is a nothing more than a disengenious lying tw*t who only cares about himself. The fact that people take him a serious politician let alone actually vote for him actually makes me weep. Anyway, the moron will probably get the boot from the good people of Uxbridge next time round.williamglenn said:0 -
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.0 -
Why has anyone ever trusted them, given the utter contempt with which they’ve treated the “self-loading freight” over the last couple of decades?Big_G_NorthWales said:Off topic but has anyone heard of Ryanair cancelling 50 flights a day for the next month to allow crews to go on holiday.
Apparently the airline 'texts' passengers to say their flight is cancelled and they can have a refund. No reference to compensation entitlements etc.
There are 9,000 passengers stranded across Europe today alone and this is the daily number for the next 30 days
Surely Ryanair's own Gerald Ratner moment
Why would anyone trust them again ?0 -
I would suggest you conduct an urgent review and re-book on other carriers.FrancisUrquhart said:
Oh awesome, I have a number of Ryanair flights over the next 4-5 weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:Off topic but has anyone heard of Ryanair cancelling 50 flights a day for the next month to allow crews to go on holiday.
Apparently the airline 'texts' passengers to say their flight is cancelled and they can have a refund. No reference to compensation entitlements etc.
There are 9,000 passengers stranded across Europe today alone and this is the daily number for the next 30 days
Surely Ryanair's own Gerald Ratner moment
Why would anyone trust them again ?
No way would I book a flight with Ryanair in the future after this shambles and complete disregard to the 270,000 passengers who will be affected0 -
Yes, austerity is dead. It was on its last legs anyway, the government had been struggling to get tough decisions through and even its own plans were pushing back the elimination of the deficit to 'probably never going to happen, so let's say another 10 years' territory, so I don't think the DUP deal was that significant in that regard, as the election result meant even if they'd sneaked a majority the Tories would have changed course because of how Labour rallied.
I found at least the attempt to continue austerity one of the major potential draws of them personally, so their offer is pretty lacking now, they can never compete with Labour on a spending plan.0 -
Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.0 -
Of course, xenophobic remarks like that will become impossible under a federal Europe. Because we will, literally, all be Dutch, German, French, etc. etc.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
Another fine old British tradition lost to the EU.
(In case anyone doesn't realise, that post is meant to be humorous.)0 -
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.0 -
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.0 -
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.0 -
Or they will close their eyes and imagine Jezza vs Boris, next election.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
And then try and imagine anyone else being able to stop Corbyn.0 -
That's an excellent article. A vision of conservatism I can buy into.fakesoundofprogress said:
It's not on offer though. The Tory client vote have the party by the balls and they're not letting go.0 -
This is key. "assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference' "JohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
The members contain a majority that are very upset with her. If she feeds that with a speech in Florence etc that demonstrates her tin ear to the party, it could be curtains on her career.
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You seem to be channelling your inner Boris well this morning.ydoethur said:
Of course, xenophobic remarks like that will become impossible under a federal Europe. Because we will, literally, all be Dutch, German, French, etc. etc.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
Another fine old British tradition lost to the EU.
(In case anyone doesn't realise, that post is meant to be humorous.)0 -
That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!0 -
That is an interesting piece with some very good policy suggestions for helping the Tories out of their current sticky spot. It left out the one that would really help though. If you want a policy that will win over young people then reversing Brexit would really help.fakesoundofprogress said:
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Just because there is money for one set of bribes doesn't mean that there is money for all but it is hard to dispute David's central thesis that the credibility of Tories saying that there isn't any money has been seriously damaged.
For those that paid attention the excellent proposition that we are all in this together had already been fatally undermined by the absurd generosity of the triple lock which placed the burden of sorting out Browns mess exclusively on those in work and the young. It is a burden that they find hard to bear and kicking some of it down the road only makes things worse for the next generation.
It's a poor choice that the British people have but when you remember Corbyn opportunistically opposing the taking away of the winter fuel allowance from rich pensioners in the last campaign there is no alternative offered. The answer is a Tory party recommitted to sane finances. At the moment that is not on offer.0 -
I tend to agree and I do not think he will have done himself any favours at this critical time. Actually I believe he has strengthened Theresa May's position especially as he published his thoughts on the day TM was dealing with another terrorist attack and generally accepted that she got the tone just right.JohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
The narrative will turn next week to Theresa May and Macron co-hosting a summit in New York on terrorism and then her important speech in Florence.
If she comes through both of these well and has a good conference I would expect Boris will be offered Party Chairman (there is a vacancy) and would expect him to turn it down and return to the back benches. Then he will no doubt put himself forward for party leader when the vacancy arises unless he has decided to follow Osborne out to become Editor of the Telegraph0 -
Really, Mr Rottenborough! Boris was a Leaver.rottenborough said:
You seem to be channelling your inner Boris well this morning.ydoethur said:
Of course, xenophobic remarks like that will become impossible under a federal Europe. Because we will, literally, all be Dutch, German, French, etc. etc.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
Another fine old British tradition lost to the EU.
(In case anyone doesn't realise, that post is meant to be humorous.)0 -
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.0 -
I would rather have TM as PM any day.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.0 -
Hunt was a remainer (although McVey very publicly supported leave).JohnO said:
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
While I think the divisions between camps can be overblown and will fade once we depart, I don't think May will be able to get away with all four top positions being held by those the membership will regard as lukewarm on Europe.
Do you really think Hammond would accept being moved back to the Foreign Office? His entire demeanour in the last five months has been of a man who has decided he has reached the only job he really wants and he is determined to hang on to it or walk completely, a la Darling. Rudd is a more likely possibility.Sandpit said:That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!0 -
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
0 -
Politically, she has some shall we say politely less than mainstream views.surbiton said:
I would rather have TM as PM any day.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
However, politically she would also be the most damaging choice imaginable for Labour. The first PM of Asiatic descent, the third woman PM - and both from the Tory party while Labour has only one EM leader in its history (against the Tories' three so far).
I would add however that while that would be funny that would also be the worst imaginable reason to vote for any candidate.0 -
Just like he was a disaster as Mayor?JohnO said:
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader.0 -
PP ticks a lot of boxes but has a strong Maleficant vibe that will repel the voters.ydoethur said:
Politically, she has some shall we say politely less than mainstream views.surbiton said:
I would rather have TM as PM any day.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
However, politically she would also be the most damaging choice imaginable for Labour. The first PM of Asiatic descent, the third woman PM - and both from the Tory party while Labour has only one EM leader in its history (against the Tories' three so far).
I would add however that while that would be funny that would also be the worst imaginable reason to vote for any candidate.0 -
At the expense of losing those aged 40+.Recidivist said:
That is an interesting piece with some very good policy suggestions for helping the Tories out of their current sticky spot. It left out the one that would really help though. If you want a policy that will win over young people then reversing Brexit would really help.fakesoundofprogress said:
There's a tendency, in political discussion, to think that people in their forties and fifties don't have many years left, when they actually have 30-40 years of voting ahead of them.-1 -
-
The government needs to fudge a combination of: austerity has kinda worked and is therefore no longer needed; austerity was the policy of the discredited non-person Osborne, we do things differently now; if you have the tax-raising and borrowing powers of a government it turns out that there may not be trees but there are at least some vigorous magic money bushes about the place.
"The conclusions to take from this are firstly, that large parts of the public don’t really understand big numbers and what they mean in real terms;" Keiran had a podcast guest a bit ago who was a bigass professor of economics, and he said even to him numbers like £30bn were too big to grasp.0 -
He ran it as a CEO, focusing on getting good people in to run things (after he overcome Boles misfits).Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just like he was a disaster as Mayor?JohnO said:
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader.
0 -
Ho ho, ho, as a party member for 43 years (yes, I'm counting), my motives are rather deeper and mature than those you ascribe to me. Yep, I voted to remain but like 95% of my fellow Tories that did so, we accept the decision without demur. And I'd be perfectly content to have someone like Esther McV as the next leader. But not Johnson who would be a disaster.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that0 -
Sadly she has shown no sign of reforming her department.Dura_Ace said:
PP ticks a lot of boxes but has a strong Maleficant vibe that will repel the voters.ydoethur said:
Politically, she has some shall we say politely less than mainstream views.surbiton said:
I would rather have TM as PM any day.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
However, politically she would also be the most damaging choice imaginable for Labour. The first PM of Asiatic descent, the third woman PM - and both from the Tory party while Labour has only one EM leader in its history (against the Tories' three so far).
I would add however that while that would be funny that would also be the worst imaginable reason to vote for any candidate.
0 -
He was an OK Mayor but that's about the limit. Happy?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just like he was a disaster as Mayor?JohnO said:
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader.0 -
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership0 -
He pissed away a billion quid on vanity projects in the days when a billion quid was a lot of money.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just like he was a disaster as Mayor?JohnO said:
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader.0 -
Rudd as FS, Hunt as HS works for me too. Wouldn't get too fixated about who voted what in 2016.ydoethur said:
Hunt was a remainer (although McVey very publicly supported leave).JohnO said:
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
While I think the divisions between camps can be overblown and will fade once we depart, I don't think May will be able to get away with all four top positions being held by those the membership will regard as lukewarm on Europe.
Do you really think Hammond would accept being moved back to the Foreign Office? His entire demeanour in the last five months has been of a man who has decided he has reached the only job he really wants and he is determined to hang on to it or walk completely, a la Darling. Rudd is a more likely possibility.Sandpit said:That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!0 -
Surely a good way to be party leader and PM?Allan said:
He ran it as a CEO, focusing on getting good people in to run things (after he overcome Boles misfits).Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just like he was a disaster as Mayor?JohnO said:
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader.
PMs who delegate like Cameron are better than the micromanaging ones like Brown and May.0 -
Ah yes, I’d forgotten that Hammond had already done a stint at FCO, I wonder where Mrs May would put him if she wants to move him from Number 11 - the party chairman role that Boris had just turned down?ydoethur said:JohnO said:
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
Do you really think Hammond would accept being moved back to the Foreign Office? His entire demeanour in the last five months has been of a man who has decided he has reached the only job he really wants and he is determined to hang on to it or walk completely, a la Darling. Rudd is a more likely possibility.Sandpit said:That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!0 -
20 years as a member here and I agree with every word you said.JohnO said:
Ho ho, ho, as a party member for 43 years (yes, I'm counting), my motives are rather deeper and mature than those you ascribe to me. Yep, I voted to remain but like 95% of my fellow Tories that did so, we accept the decision without demur. And I'd be perfectly content to have someone like Esther McV as the next leader. But not Johnson who would be a disaster.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
Although we might need to offer some counselling to Richard Nabavi, last night it dawned on him he might have to vote for David Davis as Tory leader/PM to stop Boris, he needed a lie down.0 -
Indeed, the Remainer May was on course for a landslide victory with Tory members until Mother Leadsom withdrew from the contest.JohnO said:
Rudd as FS, Hunt as HS works for me too. Wouldn't get too fixated about who voted what in 2016.ydoethur said:
Hunt was a remainer (although McVey very publicly supported leave).JohnO said:
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
While I think the divisions between camps can be overblown and will fade once we depart, I don't think May will be able to get away with all four top positions being held by those the membership will regard as lukewarm on Europe.
Do you really think Hammond would accept being moved back to the Foreign Office? His entire demeanour in the last five months has been of a man who has decided he has reached the only job he really wants and he is determined to hang on to it or walk completely, a la Darling. Rudd is a more likely possibility.Sandpit said:That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!0 -
Correct and Cameron's biggest fault was that he delegated so much power to Osborne and did not create a fully meritocratic government, but instead we had an Osborne chumocracy.Philip_Thompson said:
Surely a good way to be party leader and PM?Allan said:
He ran it as a CEO, focusing on getting good people in to run things (after he overcome Boles misfits).Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just like he was a disaster as Mayor?JohnO said:
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader.
PMs who delegate like Cameron are better than the micromanaging ones like Brown and May.
0 -
Bit different being PM (even on this narrow point). As Mayor he doesn't have to limit his people "running things" to elected politicians and the existing bureaucracy.Philip_Thompson said:
Surely a good way to be party leader and PM?Allan said:
He ran it as a CEO, focusing on getting good people in to run things (after he overcome Boles misfits).Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just like he was a disaster as Mayor?JohnO said:
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader.
PMs who delegate like Cameron are better than the micromanaging ones like Brown and May.
And it's not like the Mayor really has responsibility for much that they can really screw up anyway.0 -
Richard can go to second place for that therapist!! You see, that's why Mrs May simply MUST continue for a little while longer.....TheScreamingEagles said:
20 years as a member here and I agree with every word you said.JohnO said:
Ho ho, ho, as a party member for 43 years (yes, I'm counting), my motives are rather deeper and mature than those you ascribe to me. Yep, I voted to remain but like 95% of my fellow Tories that did so, we accept the decision without demur. And I'd be perfectly content to have someone like Esther McV as the next leader. But not Johnson who would be a disaster.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
Although we might need to offer some counselling to Richard Nabavi, last night it dawned on him he might have to vote for David Davis as Tory leader/PM to stop Boris, he needed a lie down.0 -
But he was hardly a great success as London mayor. You may find this article of interest:HYUFD said:Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
https://www.bdonline.co.uk/boris-johnson-assessing-his-legacy/5081178.article
Of course, you might with some justice point out that simply being elected as a Conservative in a city noted for being left-wing was an achievement. However, he was also perhaps fortunate in his opponent, a rather tired and stale politician with an indifferent track record whose blokeish persona was wearing rather thin.
To be a successful PM you need to be more than a good campaigner. You need to have energy, determination and administrative talent. Not only has Boris not demonstrated he has these, he has frequently demonstrated he doesn't have them. That, apart from any other reason, is why he's at the Foreign Office where administrative talent isn't important.
I agree he would be a better PM than Corbyn, as he is at least intelligent. I also strongly suspect in a straight fight between the two he would win easily based on his wider experience and considerably higher profile. Perhaps not quite Macmillan vs Gaitskell 1959, but arguably Baldwin vs Attlee, who had barely time to move out of Lansbury's shadow in 1935.
But in other crucial ways he is very like Corbyn or for that matter Donald Trump. He says what his core constituency wants to hear even though in practice he doesn't care much about it (Brexit/Trident) he makes a lot of noise but there's never any substance behind it (NHS/tuition fees) he's from an extremely wealthy and privileged background and has adopted the London mentality and outlook, and he's utterly clueless on the real problems we face - indeed, there's no sign either of them have actually grasped what they are (neither have put forward meaningful proposals on coping with a rapidly ageing population or the looming electricity generation shortages).
And for that reason, I think he would be a disastrous PM. And I think the PCP know that too and would block him from the final round.0 -
Great suggestion on Esther Mcvey. Hunt has failed to substantially tackle bed blocking and needs to go.JohnO said:
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
0 -
Alistair
So 32% would prefer Boris to Corbyn ie exactly the same as would vote Tory in Scotland under Boris so thanks for confirming my point. With Boris taking the Tories higher against Corbyn in the UK than any other alternative leader and the SNP still miles behind the 50% they got in 2015 clearly Boris is not toxic in Scotland as you claim0 -
Although Boris is doing his best to make sure I win £100, so he's not all that bad.JohnO said:
Richard can go to second place for that therapist!! You see, that's why Mrs May simply MUST continue for a little while longer.....TheScreamingEagles said:
20 years as a member here and I agree with every word you said.JohnO said:
Ho ho, ho, as a party member for 43 years (yes, I'm counting), my motives are rather deeper and mature than those you ascribe to me. Yep, I voted to remain but like 95% of my fellow Tories that did so, we accept the decision without demur. And I'd be perfectly content to have someone like Esther McV as the next leader. But not Johnson who would be a disaster.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
Although we might need to offer some counselling to Richard Nabavi, last night it dawned on him he might have to vote for David Davis as Tory leader/PM to stop Boris, he needed a lie down.0 -
If she moved him, I rather suspect he'd walk straight to the backbenches. And that's why I don't think he's going anywhere. He is still, despite recent events, the one really significant figure in the government who commands widespread respect, and could lead a putsch against her. Remember Hacker - sacked Cabinet ministers don't even have to pretend to be loyal. As he has more sense than Osborne however I doubt if he would pose as a long-term sulker, rather as the person who could unite the party in the national interest.Sandpit said:
Ah yes, I’d forgotten that Hammond had already done a stint at FCO, I wonder where Mrs May would put him if she wants to move him from Number 11 - the party chairman role that Boris had just turned down?ydoethur said:JohnO said:
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
Do you really think Hammond would accept being moved back to the Foreign Office? His entire demeanour in the last five months has been of a man who has decided he has reached the only job he really wants and he is determined to hang on to it or walk completely, a la Darling. Rudd is a more likely possibility.Sandpit said:That’s an interesting thought. There’s no way she’ll want to move Davis in the middle of negotiations, and Gove has his work cut out at DEFRA making sure that farmers keep getting paid when we leave the EU. Fox is better off sitting on a plane with Airmiles Andy somewhere as far away from London as possible.
Maybe Hammond to FS, and Rudd to number 11 - or Rudd to FS and Hammond to HS?
Edit: or Hunt as @JohnO suggests - but who on Earth wants his old job at Health?
A big autumn game of musical chairs!
If only he had Boris' charisma, or Boris had his ability as an administrator...0 -
Boris' timing is shameful - how dare he overshadow first day of the Lib Dems (who?) conference0
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You'd sell your soul for another scrummy lunch at St Pancras!!TheScreamingEagles said:
Although Boris is doing his best to make sure I win £100, so he's not all that bad.JohnO said:
Richard can go to second place for that therapist!! You see, that's why Mrs May simply MUST continue for a little while longer.....TheScreamingEagles said:
20 years as a member here and I agree with every word you said.JohnO said:
Ho ho, ho, as a party member for 43 years (yes, I'm counting), my motives are rather deeper and mature than those you ascribe to me. Yep, I voted to remain but like 95% of my fellow Tories that did so, we accept the decision without demur. And I'd be perfectly content to have someone like Esther McV as the next leader. But not Johnson who would be a disaster.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
Although we might need to offer some counselling to Richard Nabavi, last night it dawned on him he might have to vote for David Davis as Tory leader/PM to stop Boris, he needed a lie down.0 -
BigG
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment0 -
I seem to recall that when he was kept - one of the few to keep his old job - there was a very strong rumour that May had wanted to replace him with Crabb and sack him as she had Osborne. But Crabb's marital difficulties put paid to that.Allan said:
Great suggestion on Esther Mcvey. Hunt has failed to substantially tackle bed blocking and needs to go.JohnO said:
Jeremy Hunt would my choice and bring Esther McVey into the Cabinet as his replacement.ydoethur said:
The key problem is not whether he gets the sack - but who would replace him? Would May really move Davis in the middle of negotiations - and if so, who would replace him? Surely she wouldn't put Fox or Gove in (surely)? That realistically may leave Priti Patel - and if so, she would surely become the favourite as next PM.williamglenn said:
I think it will peter out. What will he do if MPs don't get behind him? May will be able to sack him at a time of her choosing.rottenborough said:Just topped up my Boris position a tad.
If that article wasn't a declaration that he'll run, then I'm a dutchman.
I can't see him being promoted to the Foreign Office on her watch, leaving aside his stance on the referendum.
Of course if she wanted to be really provocative she could offer it to Hilary Benn..he would refuse, but it would probably annoy Corbyn.
0 -
F1: P3 starting in Singapore, from yesterday’s times the top three teams could be very close indeed at the sharp end of qualifying.0
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Yup.JohnO said:You'd sell your soul for another scrummy lunch at St Pancras!!
0 -
I absolutely agree that Hammond and Davis are not my choice.HYUFD said:BigG
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
I also reserve judgement on Boris but would hope in the next two years a star will be born from the newer intake0 -
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/live-parsons-green-tube-explosion-11175270 man arrested at Dover.0
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Tom Tugenhadt has potential but needs a big job firstBig_G_NorthWales said:
I absolutely agree that Hammond and Davis are not my choice.HYUFD said:BigG
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
I also reserve judgement on Boris but would hope in the next two years a star will be born from the newer intake0 -
He is endorsed by JRM as being, among other things, a devout Catholic, so may have unpalatable beliefs like JRM.HYUFD said:
Tom Tugenhadt has potential but needs a big job firstBig_G_NorthWales said:
I absolutely agree that Hammond and Davis are not my choice.HYUFD said:BigG
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
I also reserve judgement on Boris but would hope in the next two years a star will be born from the newer intake0 -
I am not looking for a brilliant PM just someone to stop Corbyn, as I said last night if Boris beats Corbyn and Labour then pick someone like Umunna Boris would find it downhill from there but he would have done the job requiredydoethur said:
But he was hardly a great success as London mayor. You may find this article of interest:HYUFD said:Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
https://www.bdonline.co.uk/boris-johnson-assessing-his-legacy/5081178.article
Of course, you might with some justice point out that simply being elected as a Conservative in a city noted for being left-wing was an achievement. However, he was also perhaps fortunate in his opponent, a rather tired and stale politician with an indifferent track record whose blokeish persona was wearing rather thin.
To be a successful PM you need to be more than a good campaigner. You need to have energy, determination and administrative talent. Not only has Boris not demonstrated he has these, he has frequently demonstrated he doesn't have them. That, apart from any other reason, is why he's at the Foreign Office where administrative talent isn't important.
I agree he would be a better PM than Corbyn, as he is at least intelligent. I also strongly suspect in a straight fight between the two he would win easily based on his wider experience and considerably higher profile. Perhaps not quite Macmillan vs Gaitskell 1959, but arguably Baldwin vs Attlee, who had barely time to move out of Lansbury's shadow in 1935.
But in other crucial ways he is very like Corbyn or for that matter Donald Trump. He says what his core constituency wants to hear even though in practice he doesn't care much about it (Brexit/Trident) he makes a lot of noise but there's never any substance behind it (NHS/tuition fees) he's from an extremely wealthy and privileged background and has adopted the London mentality and outlook, and he's utterly clueless on the real problems we face - indeed, there's no sign either of them have actually grasped what they are (neither have put forward meaningful proposals on coping with a rapidly ageing population or the looming electricity generation shortages).
And for that reason, I think he would be a disastrous PM. And I think the PCP know that too and would block him from the final round.
The PCP want to ultimately beat Corbyn above all else too0 -
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership0 -
Dominic Raab anyone?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I absolutely agree that Hammond and Davis are not my choice.HYUFD said:BigG
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
I also reserve judgement on Boris but would hope in the next two years a star will be born from the newer intake0 -
Nah, Tom Tugenhadt is very pro same sex marriage.Ishmael_Z said:
He is endorsed by JRM as being, among other things, a devout Catholic, so may have unpalatable beliefs like JRM.HYUFD said:
Tom Tugenhadt has potential but needs a big job firstBig_G_NorthWales said:
I absolutely agree that Hammond and Davis are not my choice.HYUFD said:BigG
I just cannot see a Hammond or Davis beating a populist like Corbyn they are too dull and too linked to the policies of the last campaign and neither inspire the Leavers the Tories will need post Brexit as Boris does
To stop him the Tories need their own populist and someone with charisma and that can only be Boris
If some younger Tory rises up the ranks and starts to poll well I may reassess but there is nobody there at the moment
I also reserve judgement on Boris but would hope in the next two years a star will be born from the newer intake0 -
Very able but held back by Cameron/Osborne and May.Yorkcity said:
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership
0 -
Held back by Cameron and Osborne? That would be the Cameron and Osborne that urged him to become an MP and made him a minister? That Cameron and Osborne?Allan said:
Very able but held back by Cameron/Osborne and May.Yorkcity said:
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership0 -
Allan why do you think they held him back ?Allan said:
Very able but held back by Cameron/Osborne and May.Yorkcity said:
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership0 -
F1: third practice is underway. Magnificently, the BBC appears not to have a livefeed, just the radio.0
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He came over well the last time I saw him. I do believe options will become more obvious as the clock ticks down to March 2019 and I also hope the candidate/s are from the newer intakeYorkcity said:
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership0 -
surely youd perfer someone with a bit of ministerial experience like Raab rather than abackbencher no one has heard ofBig_G_NorthWales said:
He came over well the last time I saw him. I do believe options will become more obvious as the clock ticks down to March 2019 and I also hope the candidate/s are from the newer intakeYorkcity said:
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership0 -
Yes of course but most of all someone who can capture the public and defeat Corbynmarke09 said:
surely youd perfer someone with a bit of ministerial experience like Raab rather than abackbencher no one has heard ofBig_G_NorthWales said:
He came over well the last time I saw him. I do believe options will become more obvious as the clock ticks down to March 2019 and I also hope the candidate/s are from the newer intakeYorkcity said:
What about Dominic Raab ? He seems to me to have had a good referendum campaign and GE at least when I have seen him on the media.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you no doubt know I voted remain but I am now very much a leaver and have little doubt Boris would give Corbyn more than a run for his money.HYUFD said:
Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.JohnO said:
For goodness sake, who on earth cares about hypothetical polls just 4 months into the new Parliament?!HYUFD said:
Sorry John O as the last Survation showed Boris is the preferred choice to succeed May with Tory, UKIP and even Labour voters. In fact only LD voters oppose Boris preferring Rudd instead so it looks like you have more in common with LD voters in disliking Boris than your fellow ToriesJohnO said:Said it before, will say it again: assuming Mrs May has a 'good conference', she should shortly thereafter conduct an extensive reshuffle with the aim of bringing 3 or 4 of the more talented Ministers of State into the Cabinet, and promoting others, including from the back benches, into senior second rank positions.
Sorry, HYFUD, Johnson has to go. He is an embarrassment, a paper tiger and busted flush. There will be no uprising among either MPs or party activists or members or the public at large at his departure.
Johnson would be a disaster as PM and Party Leader. He's terminally lazy and not much good on his feet in debate.
Now, to be honest, I don't believe Mrs May will heed my sagacious counsel, but were she do so, I think my expectation of the consequences to be more accurate than yours.
As a staunch Remainer it is no surprise you don't want the effective leader of the Leave campaign leading the Tories but given the country voted Leave and Tory members and voters even more so you are in the minority on that
However, I am not convinced either way on Boris and the process needs to continue under Theresa May until March 2019 at which time her successor may become apparent. If I had a choice I would prefer one of the younger new bread conservatives to at least make a bid for the leadership0 -
It is misguided if the Government's main priority is to prevent the leader of the opposition to become prime minister!HYUFD said:
I am not looking for a brilliant PM just someone to stop Corbyn, as I said last night if Boris beats Corbyn and Labour then pick someone like Umunna Boris would find it downhill from there but he would have done the job requiredydoethur said:
But he was hardly a great success as London mayor. You may find this article of interest:HYUFD said:Boris has charisma and populist appeal whuch the Tories desperately need and is highly intelligent.
https://www.bdonline.co.uk/boris-johnson-assessing-his-legacy/5081178.article
Of course, you might with some justice point out that simply being elected as a Conservative in a city noted for being left-wing was an achievement. However, he was also perhaps fortunate in his opponent, a rather tired and stale politician with an indifferent track record whose blokeish persona was wearing rather thin.
To be a successful PM you need to be more than a good campaigner. You need to have energy, determination and administrative talent. Not only has Boris not demonstrated he has these, he has frequently demonstrated he doesn't have them. That, apart from any other reason, is why he's at the Foreign Office where administrative talent isn't important.
I agree he would be a better PM than Corbyn, as he is at least intelligent. I also strongly suspect in a straight fight between the two he would win easily based on his wider experience and considerably higher profile. Perhaps not quite Macmillan vs Gaitskell 1959, but arguably Baldwin vs Attlee, who had barely time to move out of Lansbury's shadow in 1935.
But in other crucial ways he is very like Corbyn or for that matter Donald Trump. He says what his core constituency wants to hear even though in practice he doesn't care much about it (Brexit/Trident) he makes a lot of noise but there's never any substance behind it (NHS/tuition fees) he's from an extremely wealthy and privileged background and has adopted the London mentality and outlook, and he's utterly clueless on the real problems we face - indeed, there's no sign either of them have actually grasped what they are (neither have put forward meaningful proposals on coping with a rapidly ageing population or the looming electricity generation shortages).
And for that reason, I think he would be a disastrous PM. And I think the PCP know that too and would block him from the final round.
The PCP want to ultimately beat Corbyn above all else too0 -
Katie Hopkins defines Brexit (I think she aimed this at TSE)...
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/9086512798361763850
