politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the number of tweets by Donald Trump next week
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the number of tweets by Donald Trump next week
Paddy Power have a market up on how many times Donald Trump will tweet from his @RealDonaldTrump account between the 18th and 24th of September.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/magazine-41229124/i-was-abused-by-nuns-for-a-decade
But it's okay. Nothing happened. Please move on.
Over to you TSE
https://www.ft.com/content/fa4de166-9938-11e7-b83c-9588e51488a0
Or for those who need google;
Hannibal Osborne offers Tories a new psycho drama.
I never really rated Osborne - I think he was a better Chancellor than Brown, but that's like saying someone is less aggressive than Kim Jong Un. But I am inclined to think given his recent behaviour that sacking him was one of May's unambiguously sensible moves.
Allusions to Nazi Germany are generally overwrought, but this is no exaggeration: Prime Minister Theresa May does not have an absolute majority in the British Parliament, just as Hitler didn’t in the Reichstag in 1933, which is why she has been forced to resort to his strategy. If the withdrawal bill is passed as it stands, May will be able to make laws by decree and reverse and adapt primary legislation without consulting Parliament. It is the greatest attack on the British constitution in at least a century. Parliamentary sovereignty—the very thing that Brexiteers said they were voting for in leaving the E.U.—may be about to be vastly reduced by a cabal of right-wing Conservatives who say they are obeying the people’s will. Such power grabs, of course, are always done in the name of the people. The full title of the 1933 Enabling Act was “The law to remedy the distress of the people and the state.”
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/09/theresa-may-takes-her-darkest-most-desperate-turn-yet
11/1 looks very fair on the face of it.
I agree that in the wrong hands these powers could be used that way in theory. However in practice the powers Hitler arrogated derived from the Weimar Constitution, Article 48, which allowed the President to rule by decree - as Hindenburg had done in effect for the previous three years. What Hitler did was transfer that power to himself. A moot point because ultimately Hindenburg died in 1934 and Hitler took the merged offices of President and Chancellor, renaming himself the Fuhrer in the process.
Unless you or the author of this piece are seriously suggesting May will abolish the monarchy and arrogate the Royal Prerogative to herself this comparison merely looks silly.
I am deeply unhappy about the power grab on select committees, which is totally wrong and needs to be reversed asap. I certainly won't vote for any party that doesn't promise to do that. But please, let's keep a sense of perspective. Comparisons with Dollfuss may be alarmingly straightforward, comparisons with Hitler are not.
While he may have meant it as a joke, it was a tasteless and unfunny joke (a bit like most of Frankie Boyle's output). If he can't see that, he should keep his mouth shut.
Conference will be popcorn season though.
What I think that this boils down to is that we have an eccentric in the Whitehouse whose behaviour is neither rational nor predictable. It makes this market look pretty unattractive to me. Good try though.
Not a market for me, I think. Too difficult to try and predict.
https://leehamnews.com/2017/09/14/bombardier-concedes-likely-loss-trade-complaint-looks-next-phase
And having caused everyone to vomit, I am off to work. Have a good day.
The main conclusion to be drawn is that both Osborne and Phillips are very unpleasant people.
More revealing for me is that he surely plans no future in politics...
The next stage on the ramping up may well be more US kit into SK beyond the 28K men there already. Advanced kit will tick off China but a great deal more will be required (as per the Gulf war) before a non nuclear response becomes a realistic possibility. It is not that NK could not be beaten, it is more that their weapons within range of Seoul would need to be taken out quickly before the damage to the City became intolerable.
Kim Jung Un is getting himself into a corner where he is no longer being rewarded for his threats or aggression. I wonder if he is smart enough or strong enough domestically to find a plan B.
In fact, time makes it harder to get any justice, as well as allowing more abuse to occur. It also means people who were abused got no help or closure.
And if you're asking me whether I believe these accusations about Smyllum, then yes, on the whole I do. There's too many voices speaking up about it, too much precedence proved in similar homes and institutions, and the hundreds of children buried in unmarked graves is a rather large pointer to the fact that things in the home were not exactly healthy. I might well be wrong in all this, and it will be interesting to see what the inquiry produces.
But taking the cases that have already been proved in the Catholic and protestant churches: the parallels with the abuse by Muslims in Rotherham, Rochdale et al is clear. In such cases, it was easier for the authorities (police, social services, the respective churches) to ignore abuse than to deal with it. As such, those authorities are as morally culpable for the abuse as the abusers.
And at the top of his game. The vitriol from the Brexiteers is revealing
That's not just because they want the story to be told on her own terms in her own words, when she is ready to tell it.
But also, perhaps, because I'm told that she is yet to have signed off the full contents with those members of the cabinet who might object to some of it.
I'm told Theresa May has not yet put a proposal to the foreign secretary that would involve continued payments to the EU during a transition period for a couple of years after the UK leaves the EU, or to other Brexiteers.
"She has yet to try it on for size with these people", I was told. And sources suggest it will be hard for Mr Johnson to stomach in particular. "I can't see him turning and agreeing that's palatable," one source said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41274743
Hopkins
Farage
Now Fat Eck joins the lineup.
Of course he has some loss of earnings to make up...
I think May is a poor PM and politician, but George's comments are based purely on his own injured pride. He's acting like a three-year-old ... "I'll get you for that, you bitch. How dare you sack me!"
Sulking is never a good look.
"Speak loudly and slowly so that foreigners can understand"
David Allen Green Has a good article on here on 3 speeches this week. If you put the title of an FT article into google, it is readable through the firewall btw:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/908325617749446658
"More confirmation he is still seen as a political threat."
He should be sent to his room without his supper, and no watching the cartoons for a week.
Just like Cameron - urbane on the outside, but when he doesn't get his own way, he throws a temper tantrum.
.
Would anyone argue with that?
As an aside, I know for a fact Mrs May and her team, when they thought they were the masters of the universe, were much more disobliging about George Osborne (and David Cameron), but George kept his own counsel.
Any anger George Osborne has towards Mrs May is due to her undoing all the decade long hard work of George Osborne and David Cameron in detoxifying the Tory party and taking them from opposition to government, and being the only leader to win a majority in 25 years, and Mrs May's government being bad for the country.
I'd want to analyse his tweet output since the inauguration, rather than just the last 30 days.
I don't think I have ever seen GO laugh in public.
The fact that there were abuses, seemingly systematic, in the Catholic church has absolutely no bearing on the behaviour, inclination, or proclivities, nor does it betoken any inherent behaviour of any other member of that religion.
It's comforting in a way that those who think otherwise are temporarily perhaps no longer with us here on PB.
Retweets and deleted tweets count, you can see the long term trend of the frequency of Trump's tweeting behaviour by clicking here
https://twittercounter.com/realDonaldTrump
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41278545
There has or will be a separation but this groups expects the separated party somehow should retain all the obligations and subservience and respect for the other side.
Bonkers.
http://metro.co.uk/2017/09/15/explosion-on-tube-train-at-parsons-green-sparks-panic-on-district-line-6929973/amp/
I'm not sure what George Osborne would say his political aims were but it doesn't look likely they've been achieved. The slogans he proclaimed "sharing the proceeds of growth", "balance the books", "march of the makers", "we're all in this together" proved to be very empty.
He's the Shadow Chancellor who failed to predict a recession which happened and the Chancellor who predicted a recession which didn't happen.
So far this morning we've had the suggestion that George Osborne, actually one of the wittier politicians, can't tell a joke and that he's never seen laughing. No doubt we will have more such nonsense before this story has run its course, so deranged is the hatred of him in some quarters.
Would I have made the analogy he made? No. But I am not George Osborne and I have different flaws. Is it the worst thing ever said in the history of humanity? No. His obsessive critics need to get a grip on themselves. They could start by honestly asking themselves exactly why they hate him so much. Hint: the essential reason is that he shrewdly and clearly articulates what's so flaky about their political aims. The correct response is not to hate him but to address the flakiness.
1. could be wires, some sort of det cord, with electrical connectors? out the back of the bag;
2. something like this device, if a timer, then needs a lot of training;
3. perhaps a partial with detonator only initiating hence no bigger bang;
4. new MO if a device, but people are attuned to the famous "unattended bag" scenario; so
5. might be more challenging for #2; or
6. perhaps wholly innocent builders' materials
He was wrong.
Now there will be recessions in the future and as its eight years since the last recession ended we are due one on the economic cycle.
Though I give him credit for the IHT cut which was an excellent move
But you cannot ignore the facts (and they are facts) that there was a rotten illness in parts of the Catholic church. Moving priests accused of abuse (and in many cases later found guilty) to other parishes where they could continue abusing was, and is, sickening, as is the fact that it took until 2010 for the Vatican to say that accusations of abuse by priests should be reported to police.
And no, the Catholic church was not alone in suffering from this cancer; it just seems it was more widespread and egregious.
As I continue saying about many areas of public life: bad things will happen, by accident or malice. What matters is addressing them when they do happen, and trying to reduce the chances of them happening again. That's where the churches failed so terribly.
I understand that Catholicism, like all religions, can prove to be a powerful force for good in the lives of millions of people. However that does not excuse it when it commits evil and ruins lives.
If Osborne was still in a Conservative government some of his critics would be cheering him whilst some of his new fans would be condemning him.
And Osborne himself would be singing a different tune if May had retained him as Chancellor.
When it comes down to it 'my side right, your side wrong' is a dominant factor in politics.
I understand that Leavers crave their daily Two Minute Hate. There's no reason to indulge them on it.
It's nice to have a pope I actually like and have a modicum of respect for.
That seems a rather positive note on which to go out for a run!
I'm probably what you'd call a loopy Leaver, but I don't hate Osborne. I merely think he was a mediocre Chancellor, lied and abused the power of government in his failed attempt to keep Britain in the EU, and has revealed a seriously nasty side since taking over the Evening Standard.
The paper is certainly getting more publicity.
It had better be or I'm guilty of newspaper theft on Charing Cross Road.
I mean increase circulation => more advertising at better advertising rates.
sheesh!
http://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/political-punts.html