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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Strange Rise of Jacob Rees-Mogg
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Strange Rise of Jacob Rees-Mogg
Of all the odd stories to have infected the Silly Season, none has been odder than the promotion of Jacob Rees-Mogg to be the next Leader of the Conservatives and, quite possibly along with it, Prime Minister. The oddness is not so much the story itself but the crossover into the betting markets. He is widely quoted at about 8/1 for the premiership, with only Paddy Power out on a limb at 18/1. Several firms have him as third favourite behind only Jeremy Corbyn and David Davis.
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Mogg is a true believer who is intelligent and articulate as well as charming enough to argue his case. He is one of the few Brexiteers willing to appear in the media and defend it, without come across as ill informed or bigoted on the issues.
Others either dodge the limelight, are tainted by the campaign (BoJo and his bus) or descend into a pit of alt.right hatefulness. Mogg is that rarity, a Brexiteer with positive vision willing to argue politely with opponents, even when holding unpopular views.
I put some money on Mogg for next leader at 28/1 when my uncle on the Isle of Wight came out for him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSqkdcT25ss
A taxation policy that made Aristocratic tax dodging a target, as well as the tax dodging of our new digital elite, would be a great improvement to the country. Bryant's new book looks to be of interest, concerning how the upper class twits shapeshift into new ways.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/sep/07/how-the-aristocracy-preserved-their-power?CMP=share_btn_tw
I like this 18th Century quote that he cites:
"What is’t to us, if taxes rise or fall,
Thanks to our fortune, we pay none at all."
The same unquestioning faith underlies his zealotry for both, and his willingness to defend them. Any devout person is shaped by their faith in the way they interact. It is perhaps ironic that he insists on Sovereignty for Britain, yet believes in a single Apostalic Catholic Church, which is perhaps the world's oldest surviving transnational organisation to impinge on our sovereignty. I suppose the internationalism of the Catholic Church is over ridden by its defence of privilege and the established order.
He's certainly an interesting figure. I do wonder what the PCP wants, though.
We have heard his comments on abortion and same sex marriage, but his views on Protestant heresies, let alone other religionsmay well prove even more controversial.
On topic, JRM is the product of wishful thinking, he’s not remotely interested in leading his party. Would make a good Speaker though. As always with next Con leader and PM markets, the best strategy is to lay whoever is in the news this week.
I disagree with Mr Herdson that this was the oddest of the silly season stories though, surely that was the extraordinary emotional breakdown of James Champan? Is his protest still on today, or are they all going to end up at Lord’s instead?
Indeed, in what way does it defend the established order in Britain? Catholics are - uniquely - the only ones among the established order's subjects legally incapable of being the sovereign. Catholicism in this country has been seen as the "Italian mission to the Irish" and has largely found its adherents amongst immigrant communities and the marginalised. Brideshead was a novel. It does not reflect the reality of Catholicism today - let alone when it was written.
See the reaction to the "dementia tax" for instance.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/08/triumphant-brussels-likens-brexit-third-reich/
Papery is a thinly veiled mafia racket - with a peadophile ring as a side business.
It's followers should rightly be mocked.
Perhaps the worst example of this intolerance was the forced closure of the Catholic adoption agencies, who cared for some of the most vulnerable women and children in society, finding good homes for children who would otherwise have spend their formative years as a burden on the state.
Dare I suggest that if they had been run by a different religion they wouldn’t have been shut down.
Many believers are out of line with the formal teachings of their church, perhaps even a majority of Catholics on some of the issues that you mention, and of course contraception. We should be quite tolerant of that, including the Muslims amongst us. They are like Catholics certainly not unified. The organisational structure and political history of Catholicism, including contemporary times is one of organised misogyny, and supportive of entrenched privilege. Political Catholicism is like political Islamism something that I oppose. I believe in seperation of Church and State.
I do not object to Mogg because of his Catholicism, but rather to his politics. I imagine that a conversation with him would be very agreeable, as he seems to marshall arguments well and is unfailingly polite.
*usury is something that was once opposed by the Christian Church, and still has relavence today. It needs to be revisited.
Nothing was gained and much good was lost. That is not the sign of a well-considered law working as it should.
The article is poor, neither enlightening nor amusing.
youre just in the wrong party
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/09/08/best_buy_yanks_kaspersky_software/
Moggs Catholicism is of an older strand of English recusantism than the nineteenth and twentieth century Irish migration. The more recent oppressed Catholics here and perhaps the most active churchgoers are of course the 21th Century migrants from Eastern and Southern Europe.
Broadly, High Anglicanism and Catholicism are the religions of the establishment, as far as the Establishment has any religion over its own belief in its right to rule. I agree that most active Catholics, like most Nonconformist Protestants sit outside that inner circle.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2011/apr/26/catholic-adoption-agency-gay-lesbian
Personally I think the intolerance of people who were trying to do good in society went too far, a good friend of mine used to volunteer for one and they gave huge amounts of support to a lot of teenage girls, who for whatever reason had been abandoned by their families in their greatest hour of need.
There is not and should not be one "received opinion" in a country. I too believe in separation of church and state. We do not have an issue with political Catholicism in this country. Islam is more of a risk to our secular society because it does not recognise separation of religion from political life (no "render unto Caesar"). But as you say there is a variety of opinion amongst Muslims and they too are entitled to believe what they want and play a role in public life, as many do. And so it should be in a liberal society.
But I dislike intensely this hounding of anyone who does not share majority opinion. We would do well to remember that majority opinion changes - look at what majority opinion was 40 years ago - and can change again from what we think is right now. What is the majority now might become a minority in future. We'll want some tolerance then. So best extend it to minority/unpopular views now.
Be careful what you wish for.
There is a worrying tendency in recent years to insist not just that people must tolerate what they don't like or approve of (fair enough) but must positively approve of what they don't like or must think in the same way. This is not tolerance. It is illiberal and potentially oppressive.
I noted that Ross Brawn was in the McLrean-Renault meeting at Monza last week, so my guess would be that he is working behind the scenes to get a Honda-STR deal together to avoid the loss of face (and bad signals it would give to other potential manufacturers) Honda would suffer by pulling out of F1.
Mr. Sandpit, agree entirely. But the fact nothing's been said when there was a lot of trailing for an announcement during the week indicates a sticky situation.
As such he appeals to some Tories.
Children are not like cakes - to be handed out to anyone who wants them.
What was wrong with saying: if you won't place a child with a gay family, you must refer any gay couple to another agency who will consider them as potential adoptive parents? A pragmatic solution that would have resulted in both parties getting what they wanted. Anyway, the issue has been resolved now so little point arguing.
The intolerance of differing opinions is a very slippery slope, and leads to things like we see at universities where debating societies ban people from debating each other. We forget that the start of the downfall of Nick Griffin was when the BBC gave him a platform and allowed his views to be heard.
The Church advice on contraception went awry in the sixties and few Catholics take any notice. The former priest in our parish was a quiet advocate for women priests and married priests. Many Catholics look upon this as internal housekeeping, considering we had married priests for longer than we've had celibate ones.
Abortion is trickier. You can see circumstances where there's a good case for it, and many Catholics would agree, but mission creep suggests it may end up as a form of contraception.
BTW, I'm not suggesting that I represent all Catholics or even know what others believe. It's my impression only.
Technically, that does support your mission creep argument but only in the absence of contraception. Since people will insist on having sex (which, if I've correctly understood SeanT's pb posts, can be a moderately enjoyable pastime) the way to cut abortion is to provide contraception. Ironically, this is opposed by many anti-abortionists in America and the Vatican.
Isn't it the case that unless Mclaren can find someone to take the Honda engine their only choice would be to continue using it - I suspect contractually they won't even be able to walk away..
There is a strong Protestant and Orthodox tradition in Europe too!
I would expect our Hokey Cokey approach to Europe to continue, The reformation was one aspect, with perhaps the Glorious Revolution being the time where we seriously started being reinvolved with our continental family.
In the reformation times most political debate was expressed in religious terms, while now we tend to use other cultural and economic values to define ourselves. Our semi detached relationship gets defined in terms appropriate to the times.
I can highly recommend this book on religion and politics in the 16th century. The values that underline religious schisms are often political. Who has the authority to interpret the teachings of God, is a political question.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/World-Turned-Upside-Down-Revolution/dp/0140137327
The US president is not making America great again, but he is making the 1930s current again. Perhaps, then, and in a way he would not want, Trump is providing the anti-Brexiteers with the one thing they always lacked: an emotional heart to their argument. Trump and the fascist contagion is reminding us why the EU exists: to ensure that the neighbourhood we live in is never again consumed by the flames of tyranny and hatred.
On that fateful day in June 2016, it’s possible that some of those who voted leave did so because they believed that democracy and peace were now safe and secure in Europe. In the short time that has passed since, we have seen that those things are, in fact, fragile. As the head of Nato warns that the world is at its most dangerous point in a generation, Britain’s duty, to use a word that might make Smiley wince, is surely to defend the body that helped lead Europe out of its darkness. Instead, we are turning our backs and walking away.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/08/trump-brexit-fascist-european-union-eu
McLaren’s road car engines come from Ricardo, also Ilmor, Cosworth and Prodrive are potential suppliers for ‘spec’ F1 engines to privateer teams from the 2021 rule changes.
https://twitter.com/edmundheaphy/status/906173294432399360
I'm a sinner anyway. The Catholic Church wants its people to strive for perfection, knowing they will probably fail.
This 'turn the other cheek' is a tricky one. Were Kim Jong Un to incinerate London or Paris, I might succeed in turning the other cheek, with a little effort. but if it were somewhere important like Liverpool or Boston ... nuke the bastard!
Its the hardline catholics who refuse abortions for cases of rape/abuse/medical reasons e.t.c, which JRM is aligned with. Its ok to be a little wary of someone like that having power
For an engine supplier to supply more than three teams does require approval from all the other teams though, which is why the Sauber-Honda deal falling through was a big deal for McLaren. That approval would probably not be too much of an issue though, everyone wants to see McLaren on the grid next year.
The bigger issue is that F1 themselves want to keep Honda around, to avoid the impression that their sport can get rid of someone as a failure who invested over a billion dollars. It’s these political considerations that need resolving before anything gets announced.
Thus denying the child a family life.
Harming the child.
Later as I walked out I said good bye to the proprietor and to the recently married 'Good luck to you and your bride'
Was that a serious faux-pas? I have no idea whether he'd married a woman or man.
If you are looking to outsiders Tom Tugenhadt, incidentally backed by JRM last week and chairman of the Foreign Affairs committee, would be a better bet than Raab in my view especially if May promotes him to ministerial office in the reshuffle