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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Strange Rise of Jacob Rees-Mogg

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  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Pong said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Massive data breach in US:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/your-money/identity-theft/equifaxs-instructions-are-confusing-heres-what-to-do-now.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    Seems some UK companies also use these services, but no news on how we check whether our data has been stolen (US customers can, but this piece makes clear that doesn't work).

    This is going to be a game-changing data breach, it’s absolutely massive.

    There’s an awful lot of very sensitive information on everyone held by these data agencies, and people have no choice about using them or not.
    UK Customers supposedly include British Telecom and British Gas. I suspect they have a credit file on most people in the UK...
    Ironically, those who had their equifax credit file hacked are now less desirable customers for credit companies, given their increased fraud risk.
    The senior executives at Equifax sold their shares before announcing the data breach.Just a coincidence apparently .Capitalism at its best.Only the plebs will be effected .
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,879
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT at the end.

    While it was good for the Lib Dems to gain 4 seats, they slipped further behind in most of the seats they lost in 2015. It's striking how far behind they are in most seats they held until 2010 or 2015.

    The LibDems went BACKWARDS in vote share nationwide, which is quite astonishing. My prediction was 12-14 seats off about 12% of the vote share. So: I got the first half of my prediction right, and the second half wildly wrong.

    Right now, they are invisible.

    Which is astonishing when you consider that the Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn and the Conservative Party has an uninspiring leader, and is wrapped up in Brexit.

    Now. I'm not one of these people* that say that this means that the LibDems are dead forever, or anything like that. But they do really need to their act together. Vince Cable was a major error. Too old. Too hectoring. Too annoying. Neither loved by those to the Left of the LibDems, nor those to the Right.

    If I were them, though, I wouldn't worry too much about the fact they went backwards in a bunch of seats. They didn't win OxWAb in 2010. They won it in 2017. They didn't win Richmond Park in 2010, and they came within a few tens of votes in 2017. The LibDems did prove themselves capable of outperforming their 2010 results in a bunch of seats. With the right leader, I think they could reasonably expect to be in the teens, vote share-wise, and to get 20-odd seats next time around. Certain? Certainly not. But there is a bus sized opportunity in British politics. It just needs someone capable to drive the party there.

    * You know, the kind of people on this site who make absolutely certain predictions about the future, as if there was no doubt about how it would play out at all.
    I can remember when the election was called and some of us thought Hornsey & Wood Green was a good opportunity for the Lib Dems, and others were tipping them in Vauxhall!
    Vauxhall was bizarre. At least with H&WG there was a reason to think the LibDems might do ok: i.e. the Labour Party going backwards on 2015 and the LibDems doing better. (Although in the end, the exact opposite of that happened.)
    Didn't you have a member of staff who voted Labour in Vauxhall, in protest against Brexit?
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT at the end.

    While it was good for the Lib Dems to gain 4 seats, they slipped further behind in most of the seats they lost in 2015. It's striking how far behind they are in most seats they held until 2010 or 2015.

    The LibDems went BACKWARDS in vote share nationwide, which is quite astonishing. My prediction was 12-14 seats off about 12% of the vote share. So: I got the first half of my prediction right, and the second half wildly wrong.

    Right now, they are invisible.

    Which is astonishing when you consider that the Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn and the Conservative Party has an uninspiring leader, and is wrapped up in Brexit.

    Now. I'm not one of these people* that say that this means that the LibDems are dead forever, or anything like that. But they do really need to their act together. Vince Cable was a major error. Too old. Too hectoring. Too annoying. Neither loved by those to the Left of the LibDems, nor those to the Right.

    If I were them, though, I wouldn't worry too much about the fact they went backwards in a bunch of seats. They didn't win OxWAb in 2010. They won it in 2017. They didn't win Richmond Park in 2010, and they came within a few tens of votes in 2017. The LibDems did prove themselves capable of outperforming their 2010 results in a bunch of seats. With the right leader, I think they could reasonably expect to be in the teens, vote share-wise, and to get 20-odd seats next time around. Certain? Certainly not. But there is a bus sized opportunity in British politics. It just needs someone capable to drive the party there.

    * You know, the kind of people on this site who make absolutely certain predictions about the future, as if there was no doubt about how it would play out at all.
    I can remember when the election was called and some of us thought Hornsey & Wood Green was a good opportunity for the Lib Dems, and others were tipping them in Vauxhall!
    Vauxhall was never going to go Lib Dem. They should never have targetted an unwinnable seat. The Lib Dem's would have been better off targetting Richmond which they lost by a handful of votes.
  • Options
    Mr. City, that doesn't smell good.

    Mr. SE2, and which Mr. Putney tipped at 25/1!
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT at the end.

    While it was good for the Lib Dems to gain 4 seats, they slipped further behind in most of the seats they lost in 2015. It's striking how far behind they are in most seats they held until 2010 or 2015.

    The LibDems went BACKWARDS in vote share nationwide, which is quite astonishing. My prediction was 12-14 seats off about 12% of the vote share. So: I got the first half of my prediction right, and the second half wildly wrong.

    Right now, they are invisible.

    Which is astonishing when you consider that the Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn and the Conservative Party has an uninspiring leader, and is wrapped up in Brexit.

    Now. I'm not one of these people* that say that this means that the LibDems are dead forever, or anything like that. But they do really need to their act together. Vince Cable was a major error. Too old. Too hectoring. Too annoying. Neither loved by those to the Left of the LibDems, nor those to the Right.

    If I were them, though, I wouldn't worry too much about the fact they went backwards in a bunch of seats. They didn't win OxWAb in 2010. They won it in 2017. They didn't win Richmond Park in 2010, and they came within a few tens of votes in 2017. The LibDems did prove themselves capable of outperforming their 2010 results in a bunch of seats. With the right leader, I think they could reasonably expect to be in the teens, vote share-wise, and to get 20-odd seats next time around. Certain? Certainly not. But there is a bus sized opportunity in British politics. It just needs someone capable to drive the party there.

    * You know, the kind of people on this site who make absolutely certain predictions about the future, as if there was no doubt about how it would play out at all.
    I think if the next general election is Boris v Corbyn in say 2019/20 the LDs could take a few votes from both. Overall I would expect little movement from Tory to Labour or Labour to Tory expect maybe a handful of Labour leavers but some Remainer Tories who stayed with May reluctantly could switch to the LDs and some voters who voted for Corbyn in the mistaken hope that he was the best way of reversing Brexit could do so too.

    In particular Corbyn could attract pro EU centrist/centre left voters who might be attracted by someone like Chuka Ummuna but have big reservations about Corbyn
    Sorry to break it to you, but Boris is yesterday's man.

    He was useful to the eurosceptic right, for a while, but now he's surplus to requirements.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    edited September 2017
    Yorkcity said:

    Pong said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Massive data breach in US:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/your-money/identity-theft/equifaxs-instructions-are-confusing-heres-what-to-do-now.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    Seems some UK companies also use these services, but no news on how we check whether our data has been stolen (US customers can, but this piece makes clear that doesn't work).

    This is going to be a game-changing data breach, it’s absolutely massive.

    There’s an awful lot of very sensitive information on everyone held by these data agencies, and people have no choice about using them or not.
    UK Customers supposedly include British Telecom and British Gas. I suspect they have a credit file on most people in the UK...
    Ironically, those who had their equifax credit file hacked are now less desirable customers for credit companies, given their increased fraud risk.
    The senior executives at Equifax sold their shares before announcing the data breach.Just a coincidence apparently .Capitalism at its best.Only the plebs will be effected .
    If they knew about the data breach before selling their own shares, they’re going to be In a whole heap of trouble. Maybe they could join the likes of Bernie Madoff as guests of the American government, if ever there were a data breach that would lead to people going to jail, it’s this one. Their whole business is data.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT at the end.

    While it was good for the Lib Dems to gain 4 seats, they slipped further behind in most of the seats they lost in 2015. It's striking how far behind they are in most seats they held until 2010 or 2015.

    The LibDems went BACKWARDS in vote share nationwide, which is quite astonishing. My prediction was 12-14 seats off about 12% of the vote share. So: I got the first half of my prediction right, and the second half wildly wrong.

    Right now, they are invisible.

    Which is astonishing when you consider that the Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn and the Conservative Party has an uninspiring leader, and is wrapped up in Brexit.

    Now. I'm not one of these people* that say that this means that the LibDems are dead forever, or anything like that. But they do really need to their act together. Vince Cable was a major error. Too old. Too hectoring. Too annoying. Neither loved by those to the Left of the LibDems, nor those to the Right.

    If I were them, though, I wouldn't worry too much about the fact they went backwards in a bunch of seats. They didn't win OxWAb in 2010. They won it in 2017. They didn't win Richmond Park in 2010, and they came within a few tens of votes in 2017. The LibDems did prove themselves capable of outperforming their 2010 results in a bunch of seats. With the right leader, I think they could reasonably expect to be in the teens, vote share-wise, and to get 20-odd seats next time around. Certain? Certainly not. But there is a bus sized opportunity in British politics. It just needs someone capable to drive the party there.

    * You know, the kind of people on this site who make absolutely certain predictions about the future, as if there was no doubt about how it would play out at all.
    I can remember when the election was called and some of us thought Hornsey & Wood Green was a good opportunity for the Lib Dems, and others were tipping them in Vauxhall!
    Vauxhall was bizarre. At least with H&WG there was a reason to think the LibDems might do ok: i.e. the Labour Party going backwards on 2015 and the LibDems doing better. (Although in the end, the exact opposite of that happened.)
    The way swing figures are reported when the party that finishes second changes amuses me. The "swing" is recorded as -5.1% for Labour so you'd think Labour had done worse than last time based on that.

    2015 Labour 53.6%, second party 27.3% (majority 26.5)
    2017 Labour 57.3%, second party 20.5% (majority 36.7)
  • Options
    England win the test match at Lords. Marked by the last ever commentary from the sublime Henry Blofeld. I will really miss the sound of his voice on future summer afternoons. Lovely that he got a standing ovation from the crowd as he signed off for the last time.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Pong said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Massive data breach in US:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/your-money/identity-theft/equifaxs-instructions-are-confusing-heres-what-to-do-now.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    Seems some UK companies also use these services, but no news on how we check whether our data has been stolen (US customers can, but this piece makes clear that doesn't work).

    This is going to be a game-changing data breach, it’s absolutely massive.

    There’s an awful lot of very sensitive information on everyone held by these data agencies, and people have no choice about using them or not.
    UK Customers supposedly include British Telecom and British Gas. I suspect they have a credit file on most people in the UK...
    Ironically, those who had their equifax credit file hacked are now less desirable customers for credit companies, given their increased fraud risk.
    The senior executives at Equifax sold their shares before announcing the data breach.Just a coincidence apparently .Capitalism at its best.Only the plebs will be effected .
    If they knew about the data breach before selling their own shares, they’re going to be In a whole heap of trouble. Maybe they could join the likes of Bernie Madoff as guests of the American government.
    Yes to fair to the USA authorities , they are usually tough on such behaviour if true.Before this incident my wife had to ring Equifax over an issue, terrible customer service.
  • Options
    Bye my dear old thing.

    English cricket series win whilst spurs playing....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    Well done England’s cricketers, with special note for Anderson and Stokes - the latter with both bat and ball.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Divvie, any more info in the Spanish inquisition of newspapers?

    Just more tweets from the same newspaper office so I'm assuming it's not a general clampdown.

    https://twitter.com/catalannews/status/906464821486518272

    There were tweets yesterday from a printer suspected of printing referendum material surrounded by Guardia Civil. Seems all a bit 'sledgehammer, meet nut' stuff.
    Quite dumb by the Spanish government.
    Misread Southern Catalonia as Southern California and thought, "wow, that's brave of the Spanish Government".
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,879

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT at the end.

    While it was good for the Lib Dems to gain 4 seats, they slipped further behind in most of the seats they lost in 2015. It's striking how far behind they are in most seats they held until 2010 or 2015.

    The LibDems went BACKWARDS in vote share nationwide, which is quite astonishing. My prediction was 12-14 seats off about 12% of the vote share. So: I got the first half of my prediction right, and the second half wildly wrong.

    Right now, they are invisible.

    Which is astonishing when you consider that the Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn and the Conservative Party has an uninspiring leader, and is wrapped up in Brexit.

    Now. I'm not one of these people* that say that this means that the LibDems are dead forever, or anything like that. But they do really need to their act together. Vince Cable was a major error. Too old. Too hectoring. Too annoying. Neither loved by those to the Left of the LibDems, nor those to the Right.

    If I were them, though, I wouldn't worry too much about the fact they went backwards in a bunch of seats. They didn't win OxWAb in 2010. They won it in 2017. They didn't win Richmond Park in 2010, and they came within a few tens of votes in 2017. The LibDems did prove themselves capable of outperforming their 2010 results in a bunch of seats. With the right leader, I think they could reasonably expect to be in the teens, vote share-wise, and to get 20-odd seats next time around. Certain? Certainly not. But there is a bus sized opportunity in British politics. It just needs someone capable to drive the party there.

    * You know, the kind of people on this site who make absolutely certain predictions about the future, as if there was no doubt about how it would play out at all.
    I can remember when the election was called and some of us thought Hornsey & Wood Green was a good opportunity for the Lib Dems, and others were tipping them in Vauxhall!
    Vauxhall was bizarre. At least with H&WG there was a reason to think the LibDems might do ok: i.e. the Labour Party going backwards on 2015 and the LibDems doing better. (Although in the end, the exact opposite of that happened.)
    The way swing figures are reported when the party that finishes second changes amuses me. The "swing" is recorded as -5.1% for Labour so you'd think Labour had done worse than last time based on that.

    2015 Labour 53.6%, second party 27.3% (majority 26.5)
    2017 Labour 57.3%, second party 20.5% (majority 36.7)
    The Lib Dems gained 8,000 votes in Vauxhall, but it was never a realistic target, and nor will it be. Despite some gentrification, it remains a very working class seat, with a lot of social housing.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    edited September 2017
    Pong said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT at the end.

    While it was good for the Lib Dems to gain 4 seats, they slipped further behind in most of the seats they lost in 2015. It's striking how far behind they are in most seats they held until 2010 or 2015.

    The LibDems went BACKWARDS in vote share nationwide, which is quite astonishing. My prediction was 12-14 seats off about 12% of the vote share. So: I got the first half of my prediction right, and the second half wildly wrong.

    Right now, they are invisible.

    Which is astonishing when you consider that the Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn and the Conservative Party has an uninspiring leader, and is wrapped up in Brexit.

    Now. I'm not one of these people* that say that this means that the LibDems are dead forever, or anything like that. But they do really need to their act together. Vince Cable was a major error. Too old. Too hectoring. Too annoying. Neither loved by those to the Left of the LibDems, nor those to the Right.

    If I were them, though, I wouldn't worry too much about the fact they went backwards in a bunch of seats. They didn't win OxWAb in 2010. They won it in 2017. They didn't win Richmond Park in 2010, and they came within a few tens of votes in 2017. The LibDems did prove themselves capable of outperforming their 2010 results in a bunch of seats. With the right leader, I think they could reasonably expect to be in the teens, vote share-wise, and to get 20-odd seats next time around. Certain? Certainly not. But there is a bus sized opportunity in British politics. It just needs someone capable to drive the party there.

    * You know, the kind of people on this site who make absolutely certain predictions about the future, as if there was no doubt about how it would play out at all.
    I think if the next general election is Boris v Corbyn in say 2019/20 the LDs could take a few votes from both. Overall I would expect little movement from Tory to Labour or Labour to Tory expect maybe a handful of Labour leavers but some Remainer Tories who stayed with May reluctantly could switch to the LDs and some voters who voted for Corbyn in the mistaken hope that he was the best way of reversing Brexit could do so too.

    In particular Corbyn could attract pro EU centrist/centre left voters who might be attracted by someone like Chuka Ummuna but have big reservations about Corbyn
    Sorry to break it to you, but Boris is yesterday's man.

    He was useful to the eurosceptic right, for a while, but now he's surplus to requirements.
    In your view, most polls still have him the public's choice for next Tory leader, the same public who also voted Leave when he was the main speaker for the Leave campaign
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is this William Glenn getting his groove down at the 'March for the EU'?
    http s://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/906467352736354305

    He looks as though he's having more fun than idiots who can find nothing better to do on a Saturday afternoon than post on a politics website ...

    Ahem. ;)
    Well that wasn't necessarily a criticism but I am actually filling in my application form to get on the list for the District elections next year having already had my haircut and been shopping so not being completely unproductive today
    Sorry, it was meant more as a light-hearted comment, and not directed to you.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Why aren't you in London marching and protesting for the EU?

    @Otto_English: Brexiteers are very angry about the march. Which is weird if you think about it. They won. They should accept it. Move on.
    #PeoplesMarch4EU
    You can be both pleased you've won and annoyed at the words and actions of morons for 18 months.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    She can be very good - I usually read her articles. This one missed the mark.

    Maybe you prefer this one?

    Tuesday
    Up to London, where one appears to be the flavour of the month.

    Yes! I, Jacob Rees-Mogg, proud alumnus of Eton, owner of a cat called Pat and famed inventor of the quadruple-breasted suit, am suddenly tipped for high office. And so, today, one has a clandestine briefing with two influential backbenchers on the right to discuss a future leadership challenge.

    “This is serious,” says one of the MPs. “You could be the next Boris.”

    “It actually doesn’t sound very serious,” says the other one, “when you put it like that.”

    “Or the next Andrea Leadsom,” says the first.

    “I haven’t thought this through,” says the second, and leaves.



    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/906421178516066304
    The difference is that Hugo Rifkind is mocking Rees-Mogg not attacking him on personal grounds.

    And his article (that bit anyway) is actually funny
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Yorkcity said:

    Pong said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Massive data breach in US:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/your-money/identity-theft/equifaxs-instructions-are-confusing-heres-what-to-do-now.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    Seems some UK companies also use these services, but no news on how we check whether our data has been stolen (US customers can, but this piece makes clear that doesn't work).

    This is going to be a game-changing data breach, it’s absolutely massive.

    There’s an awful lot of very sensitive information on everyone held by these data agencies, and people have no choice about using them or not.
    UK Customers supposedly include British Telecom and British Gas. I suspect they have a credit file on most people in the UK...
    Ironically, those who had their equifax credit file hacked are now less desirable customers for credit companies, given their increased fraud risk.
    The senior executives at Equifax sold their shares before announcing the data breach.Just a coincidence apparently .Capitalism at its best.Only the plebs will be effected .
    I'm sure someone will sue the company for damages if that is the case.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is this William Glenn getting his groove down at the 'March for the EU'?
    http s://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/906467352736354305

    He looks as though he's having more fun than idiots who can find nothing better to do on a Saturday afternoon than post on a politics website ...

    Ahem. ;)
    Well that wasn't necessarily a criticism but I am actually filling in my application form to get on the list for the District elections next year having already had my haircut and been shopping so not being completely unproductive today
    Sorry, it was meant more as a light-hearted comment, and not directed to you.
    No offence taken
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,933
    Sandpit said:

    Allan said:

    Man City 5 Liverpool 0
    Will failing to buy Virgil van Dijk be the stupidest decision in the transfer period?

    Oh bugger! Been a long time since we shipped five in one day, playing 2/3 of the match with ten men probably didn’t help either.
    The last time Man City beat Liverpool 5-0 was in 1925. In the same year West Ham beat Huddersfield 2-1, but Huddersfield won the title. Odds on that this year?
  • Options
    slade said:

    Sandpit said:

    Allan said:

    Man City 5 Liverpool 0
    Will failing to buy Virgil van Dijk be the stupidest decision in the transfer period?

    Oh bugger! Been a long time since we shipped five in one day, playing 2/3 of the match with ten men probably didn’t help either.
    The last time Man City beat Liverpool 5-0 was in 1925. In the same year West Ham beat Huddersfield 2-1, but Huddersfield won the title. Odds on that this year?
    I'm officially worried about West Ham's chances this season :(
This discussion has been closed.