politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Germany: a predictable election?

Every single German I speak to when asked if Merkel will win replies with definitive "of course".

Great article, thanks Nick.

Many thanks Nick for this brilliant article.

Charles said:

@foxinsoxuk FPT

If it doesn't meet the specifications then it should be able to call itself that under trade description legislation.

Why should I care whether I am drinking champagne from Epernay or Sussex so long as I know what I am getting?

Because it is passing-off, a fraud on the consumer, to sell a product on the basis of the reputation of a product of a particular origin when it doesn't actually come from there.

If Sussex makes good sparkling wines (which it does), then that's great. They should sell it as premium Sussex sparkling wine, not pretend it's Champagne.

William_H said:

Is Die Linke still also seen as an unacceptable coalition partner?

Yes.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

@foxinsoxuk FPT

If it doesn't meet the specifications then it should be able to call itself that under trade description legislation.

Why should I care whether I am drinking champagne from Epernay or Sussex so long as I know what I am getting?

Because it is passing-off, a fraud on the consumer, to sell a product on the basis of the reputation of a product of a particular origin when it doesn't actually come from there.

If Sussex makes good sparkling wines (which it does), then that's great. They should sell it as premium Sussex sparkling wine, not pretend it's Champagne.

Set the specifications then, to ensure that it's not passing off. Champagne may not be the best example because of the variation in the climate, etc.

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

@foxinsoxuk FPT

If it doesn't meet the specifications then it should be able to call itself that under trade description legislation.

Why should I care whether I am drinking champagne from Epernay or Sussex so long as I know what I am getting?

Because it is passing-off, a fraud on the consumer, to sell a product on the basis of the reputation of a product of a particular origin when it doesn't actually come from there.

If Sussex makes good sparkling wines (which it does), then that's great. They should sell it as premium Sussex sparkling wine, not pretend it's Champagne.

Set the specifications then, to ensure that it's not passing off. Champagne may not be the best example because of the variation in the climate, etc.

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

One might make exactly the same observation about trade marks, which are quite happily enforced in the EU and US without quite such squabbles.

In any event, when it comes to premium cheeses, 'formula' doesn't really describe the biological complexity - a bit like the difficulty in getting biosimilars approved by medicines regulatory agencies.

The EU IP position paper is the first one covering an area that I have in-depth knowledge of. If other EU papers are of a similar standard then they are not worth bothering with. It reads like someone got bored of writing it after the first page and started to look for ways to finish it as quickly as possible. There is almost no insight there at all - though as I said on the previous thread the GI stuff is interesting for wider trade and regulatory reasons.

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

For anyone who is interested, SpaceX is planning to launch a rocket at 15.00, carrying the US Air Force X-37B spaceplane.

They are also going to attempt a landing of the first stage back on land.

If all goes well you can watch the launch at http://www.spacex.com/webcast

Thanks for that, always love watching these launches and landings.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

The Americans would argue that there is no fraud. The names they use for products protected by GIs in Europe arose because they were being made by immigrants from those regions. Italian immigrants to the US still wanted their parmesan and so it started to be made in the US and was called parmesan because that's the name the immigrants knew it by. Over time it increasingly diverged from the original for various reasons - but the purpose was never to con.

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

The Americans would argue that there is no fraud. The names they use for products protected by GIs in Europe arose because they were being made by immigrants from those regions. Italian immigrants to the US still wanted their parmesan and so it started to be made in the US and was called parmesan because that's the name the immigrants knew it by. Over time it increasingly diverged from the original for various reasons - but the purpose was never to con.

US Budweiser v. Budweiser Budvar.

I'll say they diverged!

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

I agree. But consumers are smart enough to know the difference between Parmiagiano-Reggiano (which you could trademark) and parmesan.

Have confidence in your ability to sell a quality product at a premium price. Don't fall back on protectionism.

You could not trademark Parmigiano Reggiano as it's entirely descriptive of the product - a generic term.

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

The Americans would argue that there is no fraud. The names they use for products protected by GIs in Europe arose because they were being made by immigrants from those regions. Italian immigrants to the US still wanted their parmesan and so it started to be made in the US and was called parmesan because that's the name the immigrants knew it by. Over time it increasingly diverged from the original for various reasons - but the purpose was never to con.

Budvar/Budweiser shows what happens when it gets nasty...

edit... beaten by @Theuniondivvie Oh, the shame!

This is what happens when you sleep with the enemy;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/ukip-arron-banks-brexit-letter-amber-rudd-philip-hammond

The bastards have destroyed the once great conservative party and made the election of Jeremy Corbyn inevitable.

welshowl said:

As long as stuff is properly labelled (and yes, there's a tale) the consumer should be free to make a choice. "Kenosha medium hard yellow cheese" might be God awful for all I know, but it might still find a market if it's £3 a kilo cheaper than the stuff from the Netherlands just marked "Gouda".

When it comes to cheese, a good rule of thumb which will almost never let you down is: avoid it like the plague if it's American.

TGOHF said:

French rely on just sticking the word "champagne" on the bottle to enable them to sell any old fizzy plonk. The new world now kicks their behind on wine - only these last remaining snobbish regional cartels prevent a total implosion of sales.

So why would non-Champagne producers want to steal the name?

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

For anyone who is interested, SpaceX is planning to launch a rocket at 15.00, carrying the US Air Force X-37B spaceplane.

They are also going to attempt a landing of the first stage back on land.

If all goes well you can watch the launch at http://www.spacex.com/webcast

Thanks for that, always love watching these launches and landings.

Landed.

And for the WI, all Hopes are gone...

This is becoming exactly the major disaster which I feared when the election result came in:

Kate Hoey, the Labour pro-leave MP, is speaking now. She says she is disappointed that Labour is voting against the bill. That will be seen as a refusal to accept the results of the referendum, she says.

She says she will only accept a transition period if from day one Britain has made it clear it will not pay any more money to the EU.

The Conservative John Redwood intervenes to say he agrees.

We may accidentally get marooned in the worst of all possible chaotic Brexits because of an unholy alliance between unrealistic Remainers, head-banging Leavers, and a cynical opposition party, especially given the lack of realism and the greed on the EU27 side.

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

For anyone who is interested, SpaceX is planning to launch a rocket at 15.00, carrying the US Air Force X-37B spaceplane.

They are also going to attempt a landing of the first stage back on land.

If all goes well you can watch the launch at http://www.spacex.com/webcast

Thanks for that, always love watching these launches and landings.

Landed.

And for the WI, all Hopes are gone...

Awesome, again. Bringing down the cost of space flight one landing at a time.

WI Test cricket is sadly dying on its feet this summer.

Pong said:

This is what happens when you sleep with the enemy;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/ukip-arron-banks-brexit-letter-amber-rudd-philip-hammond

The bastards have destroyed the once great conservative party and made the election of Jeremy Corbyn inevitable.

Interesting. What exactly are Rudd and Hammond's thoughtcrimes? It seems raising pertinent issues and asking difficult questions (in private) ought to be a fundamental part of a Cabinet Minister's job.
Banks is an arse.
It would be the height of irony if a wave of entryist-inspired de-selections were to take place in the Conservative Party!
Nowt would surprise me these days.

Discussed the election with my (German) wife last night. A few thoughts:

1) CDU / CSU will walk it. It did look different a few months ago when the CSU got awkward and threatened to withdraw support unless there were policy changes (especially around migrants) but they have come into line and are entirely supportive.
2) There was one leaders' debate between Merkel and Schulz, then another for the 5 smaller party leaders the next day. The CSU leader was at this, so there was effectively a CDU voice but no SPD voice - he used this to his advantage.
3) The real unsung success story is how Angela Merkel has dealt with the refugees issue; part moralising, part effective management and onward movement.
4) The AfD leader walked out of a debate the other night (not sure if it was the same as in #2) and it's got lots of coverage; they are the anti-everything party but this doesn't hit the German psyche the way it does over here.
5) We wouldn't advise putting money on the Jamaica coalition - neither the Greens (with a Turkish migrant leader putting some off) nor the FDP have any momentum and there's a real risk one will not hit the 5% threshold.
6) Remember the Defence Secretary who resigned over doctoring his PhD thesis? Van Guttenburg. He's suddenly started appearing everywhere as a pundit and is getting plenty of coverage. The comeback is well underway, and he's worth keeping an eye on if there's a next Chancellor market.

Richard_Nabavi said:

surbiton said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is becoming exactly the major disaster which I feared when the election result came in:

Kate Hoey, the Labour pro-leave MP, is speaking now. She says she is disappointed that Labour is voting against the bill. That will be seen as a refusal to accept the results of the referendum, she says.

She says she will only accept a transition period if from day one Britain has made it clear it will not pay any more money to the EU.

The Conservative John Redwood intervenes to say he agrees.

We may accidentally get marooned in the worst of all possible chaotic Brexits because of an unholy alliance between unrealistic Remainers, head-banging Leavers, and a cynical opposition party, especially given the lack of realism and the greed on the EU27 side.

So many groups are you criticising in one go ?

I can easily add a few more if you think I haven't fully covered the ground.

Complacent managerialists who overestimate the degree of control people like them have over events?

It appears the version of the WI team that couldn't compete in the Birmingham League has turned up today.

William_H said:

Is Die Linke still also seen as an unacceptable coalition partner?

Not entirely. Schulz has left the door ajar and there have been state coalitions where Die Linke are seen as solidly respectable (indeed in some cases more cautious than the SPD - the former Communists are as attuned to German respectability and caution as anyone, though the party also has a New Left following which is a lot less responsible).

But on current polling it doesn't arise.

Thanks for the kind comments, all. Polling day is 24 September.

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

What's that 50/50 poll when it's in English?

Mr. Thompson, that's expected turnout, the 72/28, I think, is of the 50% who say they'll vote.

Sandpit said:

NickPalmer said:

William_H said:

Is Die Linke still also seen as an unacceptable coalition partner?

Not entirely. Schulz has left the door ajar and there have been state coalitions where Die Linke are seen as solidly respectable (indeed in some cases more cautious than the SPD - the former Communists are as attuned to German respectability and caution as anyone, though the party also has a New Left following which is a lot less responsible).

But on current polling it doesn't arise.

Thanks for the kind comments, all. Polling day is 24 September.

Good article Nick, something of an introduction to the vagaries and nuances of German politics.

Agreed. Thanks Nick.

CarlottaVance said:

OGH tweets:

twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/905800816040300545

Must have just pipped TSE........

I reckon Corbyn's slippage is all down to the claiming he wants to become a vegan ;-)

The Evening Standard and George Osborne get another mention in the Commons. He's there in spirit if not in body.

CarlottaVance said:

You know those 'absolutely dreadful' EU worker proposals leaked......

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/905810579872460800

Of course they are popular. So is nationalising the railways. As was the Iraq war.

Very good thread from Nick, and one to which it's difficult to add anything useful.

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

What's that 50/50 poll when it's in English?

That's the split on how many will actually vote. It's 72% of 50% in favour of independence. In other words, most of the electorate will not vote for separation.

Or in other, other words, even more of the electorate will not vote for Spain indivisible?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, that's a daft way of putting it. You can't impute political opinions to people who have refused the opportunity to express them. One might as well say (if there a 72% Yes on 50% turnout) that only 14% of the electorate wanted to remain part of Spain.

In this case, though, there is an active boycott of the poll by the pro-Spain parties. They have told their supporters not to take part.

UDI on less than 50% of the electorate's support is not a great look and will make the Catalan case even harder to make outside Spain, let alone in it. The separatists are digging themselves a very deep hole. It's a real shame because Catalonia has been treated appallingly by the PP in Madrid.

Mr. Observer, is that a wise move by pro-Spain parties?

Theuniondivvie said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

What's that 50/50 poll when it's in English?

That's the split on how many will actually vote. It's 72% of 50% in favour of independence. In other words, most of the electorate will not vote for separation.

Or in other, other words, even more of the electorate will not vote for Spain indivisible?

Given the choice, most Catalans would probably vote for what the Basques have - essentially home rule inside Spain. But the PP took that choice away, despite it being agreed with the previous PSOE government and overwhelmingly endorsed in a referendum in Catalonia.

The problem is that the separatists are now playing totally into Madrid's hands. There is no winning scenario for them from here on in. I feel very sorry for the people of Catalonia, who are being let down massively by the politicians in Barcelona and Madrid.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, is that a wise move by pro-Spain parties?

I suppose participation legitimises a referendum the Catalan government isn't technically allowed to hold. If the Yes side somehow won with the Remain in Spain parties taking part, they'd have shot themselves in the foot.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I know I said I don't go for short odds bets but 1.4 (1.42 with boost) on Ladbrokes for Yes to win the Catalonian referendum seems tempting. Put a smidgen on.

Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/905061950337536000

What's that 50/50 poll when it's in English?

That's the split on how many will actually vote. It's 72% of 50% in favour of independence. In other words, most of the electorate will not vote for separation.

36% separation, 25% for remaining, 50% don't care enough to vote.

If you don't care enough to vote you don't get counted.

The referendum has been declared illegal and its result cannot be enforced. In the abstract, I agree with you; but in practical terms, the turnout will have a huge effect on how the result is perceived. If you are going to unilaterally declare independence you need to do it with the unambiguous support of the overwhelming majority of the electorate.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. JS, wasn't it widely reported that the PM (and probably LotO too) got slightly early viewing? Not a huge surprise, frankly.

Mr. Observer, increased divisiveness would seem to favour those who prefer separation, to my mind. As you say, it does sound rather tricky.

It is absolutely poisonous over there now. And it is going to get worse. However, there will be no separation. Not a chance. And you can quote me on that!

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know those 'absolutely dreadful' EU worker proposals leaked......

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/905810579872460800

British public votes for yet more red tape...

we are getting more european

Nigelb said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know those 'absolutely dreadful' EU worker proposals leaked......

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/905810579872460800

British public votes for yet more red tape...

we are getting more european

With all the costs and none of the benefits, apparently.

if you want the benefits you have to adopt european labour law

Wonder if she'll be meeting any other Party Leaders:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/905816253427834880

Pong said:

This is what happens when you sleep with the enemy;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/ukip-arron-banks-brexit-letter-amber-rudd-philip-hammond

The bastards have destroyed the once great conservative party and made the election of Jeremy Corbyn inevitable.

The Conservatives did win 318 seats. It's a bit premature to talk of their being "destroyed."

Theuniondivvie said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

The Americans would argue that there is no fraud. The names they use for products protected by GIs in Europe arose because they were being made by immigrants from those regions. Italian immigrants to the US still wanted their parmesan and so it started to be made in the US and was called parmesan because that's the name the immigrants knew it by. Over time it increasingly diverged from the original for various reasons - but the purpose was never to con.

US Budweiser v. Budweiser Budvar.

I'll say they diverged!

US Budweiser is gnats piss. Prohibition killed off US beer-making for good, as all the German breweries and beer gardens in the Mid-West got shut down.

You've gotta feel for the Governor of the BVI - he's only been in the job two weeks:

https://twitter.com/GusJaspert

Mr. F, didn't that end about 90 years ago?

Sean_F said:

Pong said:

This is what happens when you sleep with the enemy;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/ukip-arron-banks-brexit-letter-amber-rudd-philip-hammond

The bastards have destroyed the once great conservative party and made the election of Jeremy Corbyn inevitable.

The Conservatives did win 318 seats. It's a bit premature to talk of their being "destroyed."

Just decimated?

Richard_Tyndall said:

TGOHF said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

But take cheese: if it is made from milk with a specified somatic cell count, is made with the same formula and in the same way, does it matter if it is made in one town or the next?

Of course it does. The microclimate, the vegetation, the soil, the breed of cattle all have an influence on the product. That's why specific areas have become renowned. Plus there is no downside - indeed, quite the opposite. If you buy Parmigiano-Reggiano, you get something good. If you buy something calling itself 'parmesan' in the US, you get rubbish made in a factory. American consumers are being conned, whereas the French-inspired EU regulations have been a superb spur to improved and consistent quality.

I agree. But consumers are smart enough to know the difference between Parmiagiano-Reggiano (which you could trademark) and parmesan.

Have confidence in your ability to sell a quality product at a premium price. Don't fall back on protectionism.

Plenty of food products are successful by focusing on brand quality and innovation without having to rely on protectionism.

French rely on just sticking the word "champagne" on the bottle to enable them to sell any old fizzy plonk. The new world now kicks their behind on wine - only these last remaining snobbish regional cartels prevent a total implosion of sales.

Though to be honest I have still to find a single wine from anywhere in the world that gives me as much pleasure as a St Julien or St Estephe.

*ahem*

https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/dom+dujac+mont+luisant+morey+st+denis+premier+cru+cote+de+nuit+burgundy+france