politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Body In Number 10. Solving the mystery of Theresa May’s re
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Body In Number 10. Solving the mystery of Theresa May’s replacement
In their own way, Agatha Christie novels are sublime works of art. Complaining that they lack plausible characterisation or profound social commentary is as silly as complaining that you can’t enjoy the landscapes in a Bridget Riley: that’s not what they’re trying to do. Mrs Christie successfully provided briskly written puzzles set in a comforting world where her readers would like to live. She fairly set out all the facts yet still managed to surprise them with her resolution of them, leaving them feeling satisfied rather than cheated. Very few writers achieve their aims anything like as completely.
Comments
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Fun read. Thanks for the chuckle.0
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Not first... Unlike LEAVE0
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Interesting piece AL.
I read today that Dominic Rabb and Michael Gove have formed an alliance to get Rabb into pole position to succeed Mrs May.0 -
Before Brexit in government Davis
After Brexit in government Boris
Before Brexit in opposition JRM
After Brexit in opposition JRM or Priti Patel0 -
FPT
I know which one I suspect?Richard_Tyndall said:
Starmer's position is we should stay permanently in the Single Market and Customs Union but be able to control EU migration and make our own trade deals. It is a position borne out of utter ignorance. Either that or it is completely dishonest. Take your pick because those are the only two choices.foxinsoxuk said:
Starmer and Mandleson would do a sterling job.Dura_Ace said:Who would the Brexit negotiation dream team be if we weren't stuck with DD who looks like a half pissed pub landlord trying to do his VAT return? I reckon Brown (autistic savant who revels in this type of boring detail as does a swine in its own make) and Mandelson (scheming sociopath who knows one end of Avenue Louise from the other) would have been good.
Mind you, it would be fairly hard to do less well than the current muppets.
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Well quite.GIN1138 said:FPT
I know which one I suspect?Richard_Tyndall said:
Starmer's position is we should stay permanently in the Single Market and Customs Union but be able to control EU migration and make our own trade deals. It is a position borne out of utter ignorance. Either that or it is completely dishonest. Take your pick because those are the only two choices.foxinsoxuk said:
Starmer and Mandleson would do a sterling job.Dura_Ace said:Who would the Brexit negotiation dream team be if we weren't stuck with DD who looks like a half pissed pub landlord trying to do his VAT return? I reckon Brown (autistic savant who revels in this type of boring detail as does a swine in its own make) and Mandelson (scheming sociopath who knows one end of Avenue Louise from the other) would have been good.
Mind you, it would be fairly hard to do less well than the current muppets.0 -
F1: post-race ramble (spoilers, of course): http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/italy-post-race-analysis-2017.html0
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As opposed to the Government position that we should enjoy all of the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union but be able to control EU migration and make our own trade deals. It is a position borne out of utter ignorance. Either that or it is completely dishonest. Take your pick because those are the only two choices.GIN1138 said:I know which one I suspect?
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I think the difference is that Labour and Starmer could square the circle, being very similar to other Europeans politically, while DD is merely a massive tit.Scott_P said:
As opposed to the Government position that we should enjoy all of the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union but be able to control EU migration and make our own trade deals. It is a position borne out of utter ignorance. Either that or it is completely dishonest. Take your pick because those are the only two choices.GIN1138 said:I know which one I suspect?
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Sorry what television programme is this? Sounds like a cracking black comedy / dystopian farce.GIN1138 said:
JRM would be a fun LOTO against PM Jezza.HYUFD said:Before Brexit in government Davis
After Brexit in government Boris
Before Brexit in opposition JRM
After Brexit in opposition JRM or Priti Patel
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Boris is the one who does not fit Miss Marple's analysis. The case against Boris is that he is unreliable, inconsistent and plainly out of his depth even as Foreign Secretary. The gilt has come off his gingerbread; he is a busted flush, a lay.
Except Boris has one special quality unique among the contenders. He is a proven vote-winner. He beat a charismatic incumbent to become mayor of our Labour-leaning capital, and then repeated the trick. If the Conservatives have lost an election or even if, before an election, Labour has a large poll lead, the party may well remember what happened last time when its personality-free leader lost her majority, and turn to its one star.
Labour had a five point lead in the last thread.
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Given that the Government has said we should leave both the Customs Union and the Single Market it is clear that, as usual, you are talking bollocks. Funny that one of the few posts you make that is not repeating someone else's words is basically a lie.Scott_P said:
As opposed to the Government position that we should enjoy all of the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union but be able to control EU migration and make our own trade deals. It is a position borne out of utter ignorance. Either that or it is completely dishonest. Take your pick because those are the only two choices.GIN1138 said:I know which one I suspect?
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Or Theresa May might find herself obliged to call an election, given her non-majority, and lose.
And what if she was to win such an election?0 -
And once again you made a comment without apparently reading what I wroteRichard_Tyndall said:Given that the Government has said we should leave both the Customs Union and the Single Market it is clear that, as usual, you are talking bollocks.
"the Government position that we should enjoy all of the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union"
They have said we should leave, but that we should enjoy all of the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union. They want no hard border in Ireland, and no tariffs or non-tariff barriers elsewhere.
Cake. eat it.
The government's position is ignorant, or cynical.
And the Brexiteers are increasingly angry that they have failed to convince the people who told them it would be a disaster that they have were wrong...0 -
Boris also polled best with the public in last month's Survation. He also has all the charisma and populism May did not, albeit with less of the seriousness. Once Brexit talks are complete he has a real shot.DecrepitJohnL said:Boris is the one who does not fit Miss Marple's analysis. The case against Boris is that he is unreliable, inconsistent and plainly out of his depth even as Foreign Secretary. The gilt has come off his gingerbread; he is a busted flush, a lay.
Except Boris has one special quality unique among the contenders. He is a proven vote-winner. He beat a charismatic incumbent to become mayor of our Labour-leaning capital, and then repeated the trick. If the Conservatives have lost an election or even if, before an election, Labour has a large poll lead, the party may well remember what happened last time when its personality-free leader lost her majority, and turn to its one star.
Labour had a five point lead in the last thread.
UKIP were up 3% on the general election in the poll in the previous thread giving Labour a 5 point lead and Survation had Boris polling by far the best with UKIP voters.0 -
@LazyBoyWilliams: @negotiationguru @jk_rowling I can't believe how the people who want to remain are making David Davis not be very good at negotiating. What amazing power they hold.0
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I see this thread has already descended into the same old same old...0
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I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"0 -
Mr. Urquhart, can always go read my post-race analysis
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Keep thinking that Scott. It will make the shock all the greater for you once we are out.Scott_P said:
And once again you made a comment without apparently reading what I wroteRichard_Tyndall said:Given that the Government has said we should leave both the Customs Union and the Single Market it is clear that, as usual, you are talking bollocks.
"the Government position that we should enjoy all of the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union"
They have said we should leave, but that we should enjoy all of the benefits of being in the Single Market and Customs Union. They want no hard border in Ireland, and no tariffs or non-tariff barriers elsewhere.
Cake. eat it.
The government's position is ignorant, or cynical.
And the Brexiteers are increasingly angry that they have failed to convince the people who told them it would be a disaster that they have were wrong...0 -
You obviously haven't been properly educated by Mr Barnier yet...Charles said:I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"0 -
Meanwhile, in wrongthink-crime:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/9042944038203146240 -
It is Remoaner denial that does it.FrancisUrquhart said:I see this thread has already descended into the same old same old...
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https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/904242878406373377Richard_Tyndall said:It is Remoaner denial that does it.
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If she wins, she stays on.tlg86 said:Or Theresa May might find herself obliged to call an election, given her non-majority, and lose.
And what if she was to win such an election?
Not very likely though!0 -
Jeering at the incompetence of the Brexiteers is one of the few political pleasures left.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/904242878406373377Richard_Tyndall said:It is Remoaner denial that does it.
As the Russian proverb puts it "My house is burning down, I may as well warm my hands"0 -
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Well, someone would still be next Conservative leader and probably the next PM too. I was just wondering if it might change the lay of the land.foxinsoxuk said:
If she wins, she stays on.tlg86 said:Or Theresa May might find herself obliged to call an election, given her non-majority, and lose.
And what if she was to win such an election?
Not very likely though!
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@AlastairMeeks
Great header! I reckon it was Colonel Mustard in the Billiard room with the lead piping.
Thought you might enjoy this letter from the New European* which seems to have pinched your idea:
https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/903654314253721600
*increasingly becoming a very good read, with a broad range of articles suitable for citizens of nowhere.0 -
I imagine the BBC get these letters for almost every politics presenter on television.Morris_Dancer said:Meanwhile, in wrongthink-crime:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/904294403820314624
I think they'll know where to file it.0 -
"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.0 -
Running with J. K. Rowling's "If nobody mentions the smoke, the house won't be on fire.", let's agree with Pangloss that this is the best of all possible worlds.
P/S the Vuelta is approaching the end of a crucial stage.0 -
Raab would be mad to trust Gove.GIN1138 said:Interesting piece AL.
I read today that Dominic Rabb and Michael Gove have formed an alliance to get Rabb into pole position to succeed Mrs May.0 -
I think your sequencing is back to front or I'm misunderstanding which Bill you're talking about. How is Davis going to come back with a deal before the Bill goes through the Commons?rcs1000 said:Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
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Dire on here nowadays, same old Tory fanny boys/girls trying to convince themselves they are not losers for supporting the muppets that are ruining the country, meanwhile jezza and his halfwits await in the wings trying to make out he is not a dinosaur.FrancisUrquhart said:I see this thread has already descended into the same old same old...
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In other words: "let's drastically rig the voting rules since we can't win under universal suffrage despite having the best arguments since Euclid's proof that the number of primes is infinite, and the most hilariously inept bunch of opponents since the Keystone Kops."foxinsoxuk said:@AlastairMeeks
Great header! I reckon it was Colonel Mustard in the Billiard room with the lead piping.
Thought you might enjoy this letter from the New European* which seems to have pinched your idea:
htps://twitter.com/damocrat/status/903654314253721600
*increasingly becoming a very good read, with a broad range of articles suitable for citizens of nowhere.
Not as easy as it looks, this satire stuff.0 -
I think it's a given that whatever the government proposes, Labour will vote against it. I don't foresee any difficulties with the DUP (a hard border barely affects their voters) so it all comes down to potential Conservative rebels.rcs1000 said:"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I'm surprised that only Kenneth Clarke voted against A50, because that was the best chance to derail Brexit. The ability for Conservative rebels to alter the Brexit that the government comes up with is now very limited. They're stuck with having voted for A50, and having run on the Conservatives' manifesto. If they vote against the Brexit bill, they're ending their careers.0 -
Deal comes back from Brussels.williamglenn said:
I think your sequencing is back to front or I'm misunderstanding which Bill you're talking about. How is Davis going to come back with a deal before the Bill goes through the Commons?rcs1000 said:Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
Deal is put into a Bill.
Bill is defeated.
Government falls.
????
Profit.0 -
Indeed. Brilliant finale to today's stage. Completely engrossing. I'd love Yates to do it and only 6k leftToms said:Running with J. K. Rowling's "If nobody mentions the smoke, the house won't be on fire.", let's agree with Pangloss that this is the best of all possible worlds.
P/S the Vuelta is approaching the end of a crucial stage.0 -
Nicola Sturgeon will scrap the 1% cap on public sector pay rises when she sets out her legislative plans for the coming year, it is understood.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-411413730 -
Of course the corollary of that is that supporters of the EU should have been paying all the financial contributions the UK has made to the EU for forty plus years.foxinsoxuk said:@AlastairMeeks
Great header! I reckon it was Colonel Mustard in the Billiard room with the lead piping.
Thought you might enjoy this letter from the New European* which seems to have pinched your idea:
https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/903654314253721600
*increasingly becoming a very good read, with a broad range of articles suitable for citizens of nowhere.
Though the yearning that some Remainers show for a recession is always amusing - the "if I'm not playing I hope the team loses" mentality.0 -
Why should the deal be put to Parliament if they think it will be voted down.rcs1000 said:
Deal comes back from Brussels.williamglenn said:
I think your sequencing is back to front or I'm misunderstanding which Bill you're talking about. How is Davis going to come back with a deal before the Bill goes through the Commons?rcs1000 said:Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
Deal is put into a Bill.
Bill is defeated.
Government falls.
????
Profit.
Don't get me wrong, I think it should be put to Parliament. That is the right thing to do no matter what the outcome.
But short of a vote of no confidence I can see no way that Parliament can force the Government to put the bill to the House. They have already had the vote they needed to complete the actual basic process of Brexit.
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They haven't had theRichard_Tyndall said:They have already had the vote they needed to complete the actual basic process of Brexit.
not-soGreat Repeal Bill0 -
"I'm writing ...............to suggest......."Morris_Dancer said:Meanwhile, in wrongthink-crime:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/904294403820314624
Strong stuff !
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No mention of how they plan to pay for it....FrancisUrquhart said:Nicola Sturgeon will scrap the 1% cap on public sector pay rises when she sets out her legislative plans for the coming year, it is understood.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-411413730 -
In modern day politics, nobody worries about trivial things like that.CarlottaVance said:
No mention of how they plan to pay for it....FrancisUrquhart said:Nicola Sturgeon will scrap the 1% cap on public sector pay rises when she sets out her legislative plans for the coming year, it is understood.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-411413730 -
You know how much the Remoaners hate this democracy lark.Ishmael_Z said:
In other words: "let's drastically rig the voting rules since we can't win under universal suffrage despite having the best arguments since Euclid's proof that the number of primes is infinite, and the most hilariously inept bunch of opponents since the Keystone Kops."foxinsoxuk said:@AlastairMeeks
Great header! I reckon it was Colonel Mustard in the Billiard room with the lead piping.
Thought you might enjoy this letter from the New European* which seems to have pinched your idea:
htps://twitter.com/damocrat/status/903654314253721600
*increasingly becoming a very good read, with a broad range of articles suitable for citizens of nowhere.
Not as easy as it looks, this satire stuff.
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I don't follow the argument for disenfranchisement. Nobody was disenfranchised, prior to the Brexit referendum.Ishmael_Z said:
In other words: "let's drastically rig the voting rules since we can't win under universal suffrage despite having the best arguments since Euclid's proof that the number of primes is infinite, and the most hilariously inept bunch of opponents since the Keystone Kops."foxinsoxuk said:@AlastairMeeks
Great header! I reckon it was Colonel Mustard in the Billiard room with the lead piping.
Thought you might enjoy this letter from the New European* which seems to have pinched your idea:
htps://twitter.com/damocrat/status/903654314253721600
*increasingly becoming a very good read, with a broad range of articles suitable for citizens of nowhere.
Not as easy as it looks, this satire stuff.0 -
Why didn't she do it years ago ?CarlottaVance said:
No mention of how they plan to pay for it....FrancisUrquhart said:Nicola Sturgeon will scrap the 1% cap on public sector pay rises when she sets out her legislative plans for the coming year, it is understood.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-41141373
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I know but that won't stop Brexit. All it will mean if defeated is that there is legal chaos after Brexit. The actual process of leaving the EU does not have to go before Parliament (although again I think it should)Scott_P said:
They haven't had theRichard_Tyndall said:They have already had the vote they needed to complete the actual basic process of Brexit.
not-soGreat Repeal Bill0 -
That depends if it is a confidence motion. If the government can't get the bill passed, election? Corbyn? Revoke Article 50?Richard_Tyndall said:I know but that won't stop Brexit. All it will mean if defeated is that there is legal chaos after Brexit. The actual process of leaving the EU does not have to go before Parliament (although again I think it should)
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No idea but as I say it doesn't actually stop us leaving the EU. Nothing short of a specific VOte of No Confidence seems like it can do that.Scott_P said:
That depends if it is a confidence motion. If the government can't get the bill passed, election? Corbyn? Revoke Article 50?Richard_Tyndall said:I know but that won't stop Brexit. All it will mean if defeated is that there is legal chaos after Brexit. The actual process of leaving the EU does not have to go before Parliament (although again I think it should)
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Why did the SNP vote down a Labour proposal to do it THIS year?another_richard said:
Why didn't she do it years ago ?CarlottaVance said:
No mention of how they plan to pay for it....FrancisUrquhart said:Nicola Sturgeon will scrap the 1% cap on public sector pay rises when she sets out her legislative plans for the coming year, it is understood.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-411413730 -
If it's made a motion of confidence, all Conservative and DUP MP's will vote with the government.Scott_P said:
That depends if it is a confidence motion. If the government can't get the bill passed, election? Corbyn? Revoke Article 50?Richard_Tyndall said:I know but that won't stop Brexit. All it will mean if defeated is that there is legal chaos after Brexit. The actual process of leaving the EU does not have to go before Parliament (although again I think it should)
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I disagree with you on both the DUP, and the number of potential Conservative rebels. The way I look at it is this: lots of people are in favour of Brexit in general, but my balk at a specific implementation of it.Sean_F said:
I think it's a given that whatever the government proposes, Labour will vote against it. I don't foresee any difficulties with the DUP (a hard border barely affects their voters) so it all comes down to potential Conservative rebels.rcs1000 said:"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
I'm surprised that only Kenneth Clarke voted against A50, because that was the best chance to derail Brexit. The ability for Conservative rebels to alter the Brexit that the government comes up with is now very limited. They're stuck with having voted for A50, and having run on the Conservatives' manifesto. If they vote against the Brexit bill, they're ending their careers.
Take Northern Ireland. The DUP are Eurosceptic, and should be natural, long-term allies of Brexit. But they also know that Northern Ireland's economy is tied to the Republic every bit as much as it is to Great Britain. They know that if they are seen to have caused an economic downturn that saw Unionists lose their jobs, then they will lose votes to the UUP. They want the UK removed from the EU, but they want the CTA and cross border trade to continue as it was before. If they see the prospect of economic disruption in Northern Ireland, then they there has to be a serious chance they withdraw support.0 -
Confidence votes don't work like that under the FTPA.Sean_F said:
If it's made a motion of confidence, all Conservative and DUP MP's will vote with the government.Scott_P said:
That depends if it is a confidence motion. If the government can't get the bill passed, election? Corbyn? Revoke Article 50?Richard_Tyndall said:I know but that won't stop Brexit. All it will mean if defeated is that there is legal chaos after Brexit. The actual process of leaving the EU does not have to go before Parliament (although again I think it should)
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They've done it this way around, I assume, because under your scenario, Britain would be able to say to (say) a big US investment bank "Hey! You don't need to move staff abroad, because here's the deal on financial services."Charles said:I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"
This way around, because the EU will only capitulate at the last minute, many firms will already have moved staff to EU locations.
It's pretty cynical stuff. But, ultimately, the EU wants - and needs - a deal. So, they will give us almost everything we want. But only at 11:59 on the very last day.0 -
They're in the fairly large category of people who like the EU in practice but not in theory.rcs1000 said:Take Northern Ireland. The DUP are Eurosceptic, and should be natural, long-term allies of Brexit. But they also know that Northern Ireland's economy is tied to the Republic every bit as much as it is to Great Britain. They know that if they are seen to have caused an economic downturn that saw Unionists lose their jobs, then they will lose votes to the UUP. They want the UK removed from the EU, but they want the CTA and cross border trade to continue as it was before. If they see the prospect of economic disruption in Northern Ireland, then they there has to be a serious chance they withdraw support.
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The parts of Northern Ireland that are closely linked to the Irish Republic, economically, are largely Nationalist-voting. That's not to say there aren't any Unionists living in those areas, but the large majority live in the North and East.rcs1000 said:
I disagree with you on both the DUP, and the number of potential Conservative rebels. The way I look at it is this: lots of people are in favour of Brexit in general, but my balk at a specific implementation of it.Sean_F said:
I'm surprised that only Kenneth Clarke voted against A50, because that was the best chance to derail Brexit. The ability for Conservative rebels to alter the Brexit that the government comes up with is now very limited. They're stuck with having voted for A50, and having run on the Conservatives' manifesto. If they vote against the Brexit bill, they're ending their careers.rcs1000 said:"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.
Take Northern Ireland. The DUP are Eurosceptic, and should be natural, long-term allies of Brexit. But they also know that Northern Ireland's economy is tied to the Republic every bit as much as it is to Great Britain. They know that if they are seen to have caused an economic downturn that saw Unionists lose their jobs, then they will lose votes to the UUP. They want the UK removed from the EU, but they want the CTA and cross border trade to continue as it was before. If they see the prospect of economic disruption in Northern Ireland, then they there has to be a serious chance they withdraw support.0 -
So would Boris if he succeeds May as PMFrancisUrquhart said:Nicola Sturgeon will scrap the 1% cap on public sector pay rises when she sets out her legislative plans for the coming year, it is understood.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-411413730 -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/03/planet-tory-radio-signal-earth-weaker-brexit
Pity a party that has the likes of Ruth Davidson, Amber Rudd and Matt Hancock in its ranks and yet is taking seriously the idea of Jacob Rees-Mogg as May’s prospective successor. What would once have been an amiable joke is now a measure of the Conservatives’ drift into an orbit of their own creation, the radio signal from Earth growing weaker by the day.
Yes, it really is that bad. To be absolutely sure that Labour forms the next government, all the Tories have to do is carry on as they are.0 -
The level of economic integration between Northern Ireland and the Republic has increased significantly since the Good Friday agreement. While the UK as a whole has less than 50% of its exports going to the EU, I think Northern Ireland is close to 80%, and the bulk of that goes to the Republic. There are a great many Unionists who stand to lose out from a deal which slows the passage of goods and services across the border.Sean_F said:
The parts of Northern Ireland that are closely linked to the Irish Republic, economically, are largely Nationalist-voting. That's not to say there aren't any Unionists living in those areas, but the large majority live in the North and East.rcs1000 said:
I disagree with you on both the DUP, and the number of potential Conservative rebels. The way I look at it is this: lots of people are in favour of Brexit in general, but my balk at a specific implementation of it.Sean_F said:I'm surprised that only Kenneth Clarke voted against A50, because that was the best chance to derail Brexit. The ability for Conservative rebels to alter the Brexit that the government comes up with is now very limited. They're stuck with having voted for A50, and having run on the Conservatives' manifesto. If they vote against the Brexit bill, they're ending their careers.
Take Northern Ireland. The DUP are Eurosceptic, and should be natural, long-term allies of Brexit. But they also know that Northern Ireland's economy is tied to the Republic every bit as much as it is to Great Britain. They know that if they are seen to have caused an economic downturn that saw Unionists lose their jobs, then they will lose votes to the UUP. They want the UK removed from the EU, but they want the CTA and cross border trade to continue as it was before. If they see the prospect of economic disruption in Northern Ireland, then they there has to be a serious chance they withdraw support.0 -
I don't think so, The EU is much better prepared for No Deal than we are.rcs1000 said:Charles said:I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"
It's pretty cynical stuff. But, ultimately, the EU wants - and needs - a deal. So, they will give us almost everything we want. But only at 11:59 on the very last day.
WTO means pretty low tariffs on everything bar some agriculture, while working well to keep our devices out.0 -
Good article.williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/03/planet-tory-radio-signal-earth-weaker-brexit
Pity a party that has the likes of Ruth Davidson, Amber Rudd and Matt Hancock in its ranks and yet is taking seriously the idea of Jacob Rees-Mogg as May’s prospective successor. What would once have been an amiable joke is now a measure of the Conservatives’ drift into an orbit of their own creation, the radio signal from Earth growing weaker by the day.
Yes, it really is that bad. To be absolutely sure that Labour forms the next government, all the Tories have to do is carry on as they are.0 -
What sitcom is this?williamglenn said:0 -
Out of their budget you fool, they don't borrow like the UK does , but do have to pay UK's interest.CarlottaVance said:
No mention of how they plan to pay for it....FrancisUrquhart said:Nicola Sturgeon will scrap the 1% cap on public sector pay rises when she sets out her legislative plans for the coming year, it is understood.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-411413730 -
It was the usual half baked Labour crap mumbo jumbo stupidityCarlottaVance said:
Why did the SNP vote down a Labour proposal to do it THIS year?another_richard said:
Why didn't she do it years ago ?CarlottaVance said:
No mention of how they plan to pay for it....FrancisUrquhart said:Nicola Sturgeon will scrap the 1% cap on public sector pay rises when she sets out her legislative plans for the coming year, it is understood.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-411413730 -
And that Leavers are not allowed to benefit from medical advances through EU funded research.another_richard said:
Of course the corollary of that is that supporters of the EU should have been paying all the financial contributions the UK has made to the EU for forty plus years.foxinsoxuk said:@AlastairMeeks
Great header! I reckon it was Colonel Mustard in the Billiard room with the lead piping.
Thought you might enjoy this letter from the New European* which seems to have pinched your idea:
https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/903654314253721600
*increasingly becoming a very good read, with a broad range of articles suitable for citizens of nowhere.
Though the yearning that some Remainers show for a recession is always amusing - the "if I'm not playing I hope the team loses" mentality.0 -
You would think that such an ardent supporter of the Scottish Government would at least pretend to have some clue what they do...malcolmg said:they don't borrow like the UK does .
The Scottish Government will use new borrowing powers "to the max", the finance secretary has said.
Derek Mackay made the comments while being scrutinised by MSPs at the finance committee on Wednesday at Holyrood.
From this April, the Scottish Government can borrow up to a maximum of £450m each year.
https://stv.tv/news/politics/1377805-finance-secretary-i-will-use-borrowing-powers-to-the-max/0 -
Labour bypassed David Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham and Liz Kendall for Jeremy Corbyn?williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/03/planet-tory-radio-signal-earth-weaker-brexit
Pity a party that has the likes of Ruth Davidson, Amber Rudd and Matt Hancock in its ranks and yet is taking seriously the idea of Jacob Rees-Mogg as May’s prospective successor. What would once have been an amiable joke is now a measure of the Conservatives’ drift into an orbit of their own creation, the radio signal from Earth growing weaker by the day.
Yes, it really is that bad. To be absolutely sure that Labour forms the next government, all the Tories have to do is carry on as they are.0 -
Not a £100 billion a year you dullard , a poxy £450 million. Even someone as stupid as you should be able to tell the difference.Scott_P said:
You would think that such an ardent supporter of the Scottish Government would at least pretend to have some clue what they do...malcolmg said:they don't borrow like the UK does .
The Scottish Government will use new borrowing powers "to the max", the finance secretary has said.
Derek Mackay made the comments while being scrutinised by MSPs at the finance committee on Wednesday at Holyrood.
From this April, the Scottish Government can borrow up to a maximum of £450m each year.
https://stv.tv/news/politics/1377805-finance-secretary-i-will-use-borrowing-powers-to-the-max/0 -
I have a doubt - does Chris Webster (age 54) know anything? Best estimate used to be 3% loss to be made up, or am I lost.0
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Adonis seems to have smile suitable for a gargoyle...0
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Possibly why they are all opening small offices (with promises from the UK govt) but have an option to scale up if need be.rcs1000 said:
They've done it this way around, I assume, because under your scenario, Britain would be able to say to (say) a big US investment bank "Hey! You don't need to move staff abroad, because here's the deal on financial services."Charles said:I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"
This way around, because the EU will only capitulate at the last minute, many firms will already have moved staff to EU locations.
It's pretty cynical stuff. But, ultimately, the EU wants - and needs - a deal. So, they will give us almost everything we want. But only at 11:59 on the very last day.
I don't seem that many bankers clamouring to move to Paris, while Frankfurt bombs as an idea*. Dublin and Luxembourg are for back office staff and Amsterdam, isn't for work.
* too soon?0 -
Can anyone for see a problem there?rottenborough said:0 -
Trump might be running out red ties shortly....rottenborough said:twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/904377075049656322
0 -
Well he did say he would bring back jobs to America....foxinsoxuk said:
Can anyone for see a problem there?rottenborough said:0 -
Apart from the fact he is a certified loon?foxinsoxuk said:
Can anyone for see a problem there?rottenborough said:0 -
Depends whether a shortage of iPhones is a problem or notfoxinsoxuk said:
Can anyone for see a problem there?rottenborough said:0 -
That's certainly an interesting statement from Trump.0
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Only Tories are thinking about fun. The rest of us are suffering already, and starting to feel the pain.HYUFD said:
Are there any serious politicians in the ranks of the Alistair`s suspects?0 -
Is this before or after he has unleashed fire and fury unlike the world has ever seen?rottenborough said:twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/904377075049656322
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Absolutely fatuous.Jonathan said:
What sitcom is this?williamglenn said:0 -
South Korea, of course, "does business" with North Korea. It also has an FTA with the United States, and is home to many US troops.rottenborough said:0 -
Trump is threatening to tear up the FTA with South Korea at the moment. He probably thinks this whole situation is a way of putting pressure on them to give the US a better 'deal'.rcs1000 said:
South Korea, of course, "does business" with North Korea. It also has an FTA with the United States, and is home to many US troops.rottenborough said:0 -
I seemed to remember reading they even have joint ventures with factories on the border that employ both North and South Koreans.rcs1000 said:
South Korea, of course, "does business" with North Korea. It also has an FTA with the United States, and is home to many US troops.rottenborough said:
I am guessing old Drump didn't confer with General Kelly before this tweet.0 -
According to Al Jazeera, N Korea's main trading partners are China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Russia and the Philippines. If the man thinks he can just stop trade with those countries he is even more mad than I thought.rcs1000 said:
South Korea, of course, "does business" with North Korea. It also has an FTA with the United States, and is home to many US troops.rottenborough said:0 -
The exit fee won't be tied to an FTA because an FTA won't be negotiated as part of the Article 50 talks. It will come much later, if at all. The EU won't accept contingent payment because the whole point of this exercise for them is to get a specific and enforceable obligation from the UK. The Withdrawal Agreement will include that the UK agrees to do, including paying the EU a sum of money, and things the EU agrees to do, which probably include some kind of term limited continuity arrangement and may include access to certain EU programmes on a longer basis. What the EU offers will be partly what they want to include anyway and partly driven by our offer to them. But there won't be any If X Then Y conditionality.Charles said:I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"
Would we agree a significant sum of money to the EU without an FTA? I think, yes. Firstly because Leavers wanting a successful Brexit and Remainers wanting a Brexit that is no more damaging than it needs be have a common interest in avoiding a chaotic exit that would be the consequence of leaving without a deal with the EU. Secondly, not paying only puts off the evil hour. At some point we will want to deal with the EU and the first thing they will ask for is the exit fee. And the third reason is that we, counter-intuitively, will want to pay the EU lots of money. We don't have a lot of leverage, ie things they are interested in that we can offer. Money is one leverage we do have. If we are paying them useful amounts of money, particularly if we cover their budget deficit so they don't have to go through a fraught rebudgeting process, we remove a problem for them. Removing problems for people makes you interesting to them.
Given all that, wouldn't it be better to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?0 -
Is that over the counter, or under the counter trade? From the Panorama programme the other week, it was stated that for many years N Korea's big income comes from have front companies that are supposed Chinese or Malaysian, but are actually just ways to sell stuff produced in N. Korean factories.Richard_Tyndall said:
According to Al Jazeera, N Korea's main trading partners are China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Russia and the Philippines. If the man thinks he can just stop trade with those countries he is even more mad than I thought.rcs1000 said:
South Korea, of course, "does business" with North Korea. It also has an FTA with the United States, and is home to many US troops.rottenborough said:0 -
The Sun should read pb. Some contributors pointed out soon after the election that Nick & Fiona were being scapegoated to protect Lynton Crosby.williamglenn said:0 -
Barnier intends to teach us a lesson, no doubt "pour encourager les autres." How will we respond?
Either 'Come and have a go if you think you're hard enough,' or the Remain way - 'Please don't hurt us anymore us, sir, we are even not worth of your contempt.'
0 -
I sort of follow this (though I think a few Tory rebels and perhaps DUP abstain rather than vote against, leading to the bill passing by 5-15), but don't see why an election is triggered?rcs1000 said:"I reckon it’s at least a 90% chance that Theresa May is replaced as Prime Minister by another Conservative"
I don't. If the Conservative Party cannot get its Brexit Bill through the House of Commons, then there has to be a 90% chance of another election. Theresa May may not be the Conservative leader at that election, but she would stay in Number 10 until its completion.
Indeed, my central scenario is that the David Davis comes back with a workable deal from Brussels. But that a combination of DUP rebels (who feel the border is insufficiently "frictionless", Conservative EU-philes and a Labour Party with virtually no rebels) see the Bill defeated.
I do not believe this would lead to the government of the day shrugging its shoulders and saying, wistfully, "oh well, WTO it its". I believe it would lead to an election.
Now, what's the chance of this outcome? I'd say at least 20%, possibly as much as 30%. I think Labour Leavers (chief among them Jeremy Corbyn) care far more about grabbing the crown to implement their socialist revolution that about about this country's relationship with the EU. They are oppositionists by instinct. They will oppose whatever Ms May produces.
Now, if we assume it's a 50% chance that election sees Corbyn as PM, and it's a 25% chance of an early election. Then that's a 12.5% chance of Corbyn as PM plus the chance that May stays until 2022.0 -
It makes sense to pay up if we get a valuable deal. If it doesn't include anything we want over the minimum (e.g. An FTA but it could be something else) then there's no point in paying a premiumFF43 said:
The exit fee won't be tied to an FTA because an FTA won't be negotiated as part of the Article 50 talks. It will come much later, if at all. The EU won't accept contingent payment because the whole point of this exercise for them is to get a specific and enforceable obligation from the UK. The Withdrawal Agreement will include that the UK agrees to do, including paying the EU a sum of money, and things the EU agrees to do, which probably include some kind of term limited continuity arrangement and may include access to certain EU programmes on a longer basis. What the EU offers will be partly what they want to include anyway and partly driven by our offer to them. But there won't be any If X Then Y conditionality.Charles said:I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"
Would we agree a significant sum of money to the EU without an FTA? I think, yes. Firstly because Leavers wanting a successful Brexit and Remainers wanting a Brexit that is no more damaging than it needs be have a common interest in avoiding a chaotic exit that would be the consequence of leaving without a deal with the EU. Secondly, not paying only puts off the evil hour. At some point we will want to deal with the EU and the first thing they will ask for is the exit fee. And the third reason is that we, counter-intuitively, will want to pay the EU lots of money. We don't have a lot of leverage, ie things they are interested in that we can offer. Money is one leverage we do have. If we are paying them useful amounts of money, particularly if we cover their budget deficit so they don't have to go through a fraught rebudgeting process, we remove a problem for them. Removing problems for people makes you interesting to them.
Given all that, wouldn't it be better to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?0 -
UKIP were actually up 2.2% .HYUFD said:
Boris also polled best with the public in last month's Survation. He also has all the charisma and populism May did not, albeit with less of the seriousness. Once Brexit talks are complete he has a real shot.DecrepitJohnL said:Boris is the one who does not fit Miss Marple's analysis. The case against Boris is that he is unreliable, inconsistent and plainly out of his depth even as Foreign Secretary. The gilt has come off his gingerbread; he is a busted flush, a lay.
Except Boris has one special quality unique among the contenders. He is a proven vote-winner. He beat a charismatic incumbent to become mayor of our Labour-leaning capital, and then repeated the trick. If the Conservatives have lost an election or even if, before an election, Labour has a large poll lead, the party may well remember what happened last time when its personality-free leader lost her majority, and turn to its one star.
Labour had a five point lead in the last thread.
UKIP were up 3% on the general election in the poll in the previous thread giving Labour a 5 point lead and Survation had Boris polling by far the best with UKIP voters.0 -
Brexiters do not understand or want to understand a simple concept: that the trade deal for the EU with the UK is less important for them than the future integrity of the Union. They are determined not to hand UK separating terms which will be an incentive for others to try and emulate. Already, Poland is sounding bellicose.FF43 said:
The exit fee won't be tied to an FTA because an FTA won't be negotiated as part of the Article 50 talks...........Charles said:I'm not sure I understand why the EU have adopted this negotiating strategy - assuming they really want a deal.
Effectively they are saying "give us X billion or you don't get a trade deal". This is pretty meaningless because if there is no trade deal there will be no payment above the legal minimum.
Surely a better approach would be to negotiate an FTA and then say "if you want this shiny wonderful deal you need to pay us X billion"
Would we agree a significant sum of money to the EU without an FTA? I think, yes. Firstly because Leavers wanting a successful Brexit and Remainers wanting a Brexit that is no more damaging than it needs be have a common interest in avoiding a chaotic exit that would be the consequence of leaving without a deal with the EU. Secondly, not paying only puts off the evil hour. At some point we will want to deal with the EU and the first thing they will ask for is the exit fee. And the third reason is that we, counter-intuitively, will want to pay the EU lots of money. We don't have a lot of leverage, ie things they are interested in that we can offer....
Given all that, wouldn't it be better to agree quickly to pay up and then maximise your leverage?
Britain is a trading nation. For us, everything boils down to pound, shilling and pence. We cannot conceive that any country [ or entity ] will accept some instability and loss of temporary income. Of course, per capita, Britain's loss will be far greater. Thankfully, we do not hear that dross anymore that the EU will let us be in the single market because they need us so badly. For many in the continent, the EU is a project, acceptable to almost everyone from centre-right to the centre-left and a bit more. Only the crazy nutters on the far right and the far, far left oppose the EU. Note even at the height of the Greek crisis, no party in Greece wanted to leave the EU or the Euro. For these countries, a division 2 country was playing in the premier league. I remember many here in PB were announcing the death of the Euro. It was £1 = €1.40 then. Today, it is £1= €1.09. Only one currency is imploding!
Of course, in due course, we will agree an FTA. But don't hold your breath for it. It might take 7-10 years unless we are prepared to do a Norway and not to fall of the cliff.0
