politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May’s comments on retirement are more about 2019 than 2022
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » May’s comments on retirement are more about 2019 than 2022
Theresa May might be on the other side of the world but she can no doubt still hear the cacophony of silence from her cabinet colleagues in support of her comment stating her desire to lead the Conservatives into the next election. As so often, what is not said is more revealing than what is.
Comments
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First0
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I would give ten pounds to be a fly on the wall when a certain person reads that line saying Theresa May is 'a capable Prime Minister.'
That said,I'd want to be put of potential swatting distance...0 -
Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:0 -
Good piece0
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Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:0 -
+1rcs1000 said:Good piece
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But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:0 -
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. 43, interesting set of tweets.
F1: intriguing to see how close Ferrari can get, but I still think this is a Mercedes circuit. Also, small chance of a Force India podium, perhaps.0 -
I've come to the same conclusion this week. Everything can be sacrificed on the altar of the project. Business, citizens' living of lives, foreign policy. More convinced than ever that we need to be out of this.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.0 -
Suspect you are right about belief. And from our side a significant part of our political establishment doesn’t really believe it either. May herself suppported Remain; now she appears a committed Leaver, and that really doesn’t ring true.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.0 -
This weekend is the 440th anniversary of the three days when Lord North paid £642 4s 2d to entertain Queen Elizabeth I and her 2,000 guests.0
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"the cacophony of silence...."
Isn't this plain hypocricy from the silent Tory cabinet ministers? When she made the decision to call an election they were queing up to explain why it was vital in the light of Brexit etc.
Now that the decision has been shown to have been a bad one she's on her own. Who'd want to find themselves in the trenches with this lot.0 -
I think bluntly that May backed Remain on the blandishments of Cameron and Osborne, while secretly hoping for a Leave vote (much like Corbyn). She and Hammond have been vocal and prominent eurosceptics for years, which is one reason why they were acceptable to Leavers.OldKingCole said:
Suspect you are right about belief. And from our side a significant part of our political establishment doesn’t really believe it either. May herself suppported Remain; now she appears a committed Leaver, and that really doesn’t ring true.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
Hammond is behaving as though he really has come round to Remain, but May isn't. She clearly does want to withdraw and the more the EU behave the way they are at present, the more intransigent she will become.0 -
It comes back to the point I made last week. Neither the EU nor Britain has given much thought to the nature of the relationship that they want to have with each other in the long term. I don't have much sympathy with either side on this.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.0 -
People who expected Brexit to have no consequences will see it as punishment. It's more like a media company deciding what to put in their free packages. They want the paid subscription to be seen as much more valuable but they would prefer people to have a free package than nothing at all. For the EU Brexit needs to be seen as a significant downgrade on membership in other words.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
On the header, I have no doubt the government will blame the EU for the downsides of Brexit. The two issues with this approach are firstly that blame isn't a substitute for success. The Conservatives own Brexit and would want it to be seen as a success. The other issue is that the government will also want an ongoing relationship with the EU. It will have to sell that proposition both to a public while simultaneously denigrating that organisation, and to the EU itself who owe no favours to the government that is badmouthing them.0 -
On topic, excellent piece but I think David Herdson is underestimating the degree of madness coursing through the veins of many Tory Leavers. Discipline is easy to hold when a hard line is being held. Compromises are going to need to be offered soon. Stand back.0
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If talks collapse, wouldn't it be the Remainers who would blow up?AlastairMeeks said:On topic, excellent piece but I think David Herdson is underestimating the degree of madness coursing through the veins of many Tory Leavers. Discipline is easy to hold when a hard line is being held. Compromises are going to need to be offered soon. Stand back.
Which is potentially far more damaging to May, as although there are fewer of them they just happen to dominate the cabinet, including the Treasury.0 -
What are your objections to Barnier and why would Merkel have an issue with Commission "bungling"? It is not obvious to me.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.0 -
You mean apart from the fact his most senior post in politics was French Minister for Agriculture - from which he had to be sacked after a judge found he (and in fairness, his department) had lied repeatedly about the extent of BSE in French cattle? Or that he is clearly completely clueless in the art of negotiation? Or that he has failed to put out realistic policy documents, and those that he has put out have actually proposed a dual legal system for a sovereign state?FF43 said:
What are your objections to Barnier and why would Merkel have an issue with Commission "bungling"? It is not obvious to me.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
I'll assume that you don't mean what you say in the second part. I am sure you do not actually think that there is no obvious reason why Merkel should be worried that the Commission couldn't organise an orgy in a brothel.0 -
Well, you never know. Once, he complained angrily to his neighbour, 'Zounds, sir! You have wakened me a hundred years too soon!'Essexit said:
Presumably not that Lord North, unless he was the first 150-year human.JohnLoony said:This weekend is the 440th anniversary of the three days when Lord North paid £642 4s 2d to entertain Queen Elizabeth I and her 2,000 guests.
(It was in the middle of a long and tedious speech on taxes. North had asked to be woken when it got to modern times.)0 -
It's just standard fog in the channel stuff, FF. Everybody with a different agenda is a failed pygmy. Meanwhile the colossi who currently rule us....FF43 said:
What are your objections to Barnier and why would Merkel have an issue with Commission "bungling"? It is not obvious to me.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
I do agree with the view on May. No question in my mind her 'support' for remain was just trying to guess the direction of the wind. And got it wrong, but weirdly it sort of worked out for her. Sort of being the operative.0 -
... as well as the European project.Scott_P said:
This paragraph perfectly describes BrexitMortimer said:I've come to the same conclusion this week. Everything can be sacrificed on the altar of the project. Business, citizens' living of lives, foreign policy. More convinced than ever that we need to be out of this.
The two sides are mirror images of each other. The ones I have sympathy with are the tens of milllions who will suffer as a result of the mutual intransigence, not the true believers.
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Monksfield, I make allowances for somebody who admires Corbyn, but you do know I am a Remainer, don't you? As is say Alistair, or Joff. Or indeed most people who see these talks collapsing because of a mixture of British stubbornness and EU incompetence.Monksfield said:
It's just standard fog in the channel stuff, FF. Everybody with a different agenda is a failed pygmy. Meanwhile the colossi who currently rule us....FF43 said:
What are your objections to Barnier and why would Merkel have an issue with Commission "bungling"? It is not obvious to me.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
I do agree with the view on May. No question in my mind her 'support' for remain was just trying to guess the direction of the wind. And got it wrong, but weirdly it sort of worked out for her. Sort of being the operative.
The reason I am criticising the EU is because their approach has been unbelievably stupid and naive, not because I want us to crash out with no deal (I really can't understand why anyone would wish us to do that, in any case).0 -
The true believers won't suffer. That's the real tragedy.Nigelb said:
... as well as the European project.Scott_P said:
This paragraph perfectly describes BrexitMortimer said:I've come to the same conclusion this week. Everything can be sacrificed on the altar of the project. Business, citizens' living of lives, foreign policy. More convinced than ever that we need to be out of this.
The two sides are mirror images of each other. The ones I have sympathy with are the tens of milllions who will suffer as a result of the mutual intransigence, not the true believers.0 -
Mr. Doethur, to be fair to Barnier, I suspect much of his room for manoeuvre is limited due to having to have 27 nations (ish) agree a position. That said, some of the positions are just plain stupid. Trying to settle the Irish border and only then settle trade is demented, because they're obviously closely linked.0
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Isn't it simpler than that? The EU benefits from everything being decided at the last moment, while we suffer. Of course, if we'd done a great job in moving forward other trade agreements, and made it clear we were ready and willing for a WTO exit (i.e. started on building work at Dover), we might have a bit more leverage.Mortimer said:
I've come to the same conclusion this week. Everything can be sacrificed on the altar of the project. Business, citizens' living of lives, foreign policy. More convinced than ever that we need to be out of this.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
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Never mind closely linked, it's cart before horse in that case. If trade and movement are settled on good terms then it ceases to be a problem at all. Only if WTO becomes a risk is it an issue.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, to be fair to Barnier, I suspect much of his room for manoeuvre is limited due to having to have 27 nations (ish) agree a position. That said, some of the positions are just plain stupid. Trying to settle the Irish border and only then settle trade is demented, because they're obviously closely linked.
I am at a complete loss that Barnier's team appear unable to see that - I would have thought it would have been obvious to anyone of average intelligence - but they clearly are. Or alternatively, they are deliberately wrecking talks.0 -
Mr. 1000, only if there's a deal.
Mr. Doethur, I agree, but it's also worth mentioning the media hasn't actually raised the point once, so far as I can see.0 -
That is clearly a possibility, and it's certainly true that the EU might benefit in some respects - if they are solely considering holding the UK's feet to the fire. It is though, directly contrary to their legal and moral responsibilities under article 50, and in addition grossly irresponsible towards the future of Irish republic.rcs1000 said:
Isn't it simpler than that? The EU benefits from everything being decided at the last moment, while we suffer. Of course, if we'd done a great job in moving forward other trade agreements, and made it clear we were ready and willing for a WTO exit (i.e. started on building work at Dover), we might have a bit more leverage.Mortimer said:
I've come to the same conclusion this week. Everything can be sacrificed on the altar of the project. Business, citizens' living of lives, foreign policy. More convinced than ever that we need to be out of this.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
I'm not convinced that the EU negotiators are quite that emotionally detached.
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F1: might be light showers in qualifying.0
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I would have thought that poisition would show more emotional involvement than emotional detachment - the EU first and last and all the time, and sod those who get in the way and get damaged.Nigelb said:
That is clearly a possibility, and it's certainly true that the EU might benefit in some respects - if they are solely considering holding the UK's feet to the fire. It is though, directly contrary to their legal and moral responsibilities under article 50, and in addition grossly irresponsible towards the future of Irish republic.rcs1000 said:Isn't it simpler than that? The EU benefits from everything being decided at the last moment, while we suffer. Of course, if we'd done a great job in moving forward other trade agreements, and made it clear we were ready and willing for a WTO exit (i.e. started on building work at Dover), we might have a bit more leverage.
I'm not convinced that the EU negotiators are quite that emotionally detached.
This is where my point on shock comes in - I think they still can't get their heads round the fact that some people don't see the EU as an unalloyed good. That others have gone beyond my position of a flawed positive and see it as actually evil is still more incomprehensible to them. They are behaving as though everyone will change their minds given time, and simply cannot see that the way they're behaving is merely likely to harden attitudes.0 -
They are still going to have qualifying even though some of the competitors would if strict logic is applied have to start on Monday morning?Morris_Dancer said:F1: might be light showers in qualifying.
Did they eventually not penalise some drivers, or did they just hand the positions out at random?0 -
I'm not sure it has been stupid and naive, only if you see it exclusively through a UK prism. They've made it abundantly clear from the start what the consequences of leaving were for us, and that they couldn't be seen to offer us a deal which matched what we had before. As we'd always been given preferential treatment anyway, it was never likely to be cake snd eat it. If our behaviour since has hardened their stance, then I for one am not really surprised. Bozo telling them to go whistle, veiled threats on security cooperation. Etc etc. If there is stubbornness in this it may now be on the EU side, but by God there's no doubt whatsoever about where the incompetence lies.ydoethur said:
Monksfield, I make allowances for somebody who admires Corbyn, but you do know I am a Remainer, don't you? As is say Alistair, or Joff. Or indeed most people who see these talks collapsing because of a mixture of British stubbornness and EU incompetence.Monksfield said:
It's just standard fog in the channel stuff, FF. Everybody with a different agenda is a failed pygmy. Meanwhile the colossi who currently rule us....FF43 said:
What are your objections to Barnier and why would Merkel have an issue with Commission "bungling"? It is not obvious to me.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
I do agree with the view on May. No question in my mind her 'support' for remain was just trying to guess the direction of the wind. And got it wrong, but weirdly it sort of worked out for her. Sort of being the operative.
The reason I am criticising the EU is because their approach has been unbelievably stupid and naive, not because I want us to crash out with no deal (I really can't understand why anyone would wish us to do that, in any case).
As for Corbyn, I've repeatedly said on here that I'm not a fan. And I stand by that. However, where his manifesto sat was much closer to my views than say, the Miliband manifesto. And for that reason Labour got my vote in 2017.0 -
Mr. Doethur, doubt we'll see an in-season change to qualifying penalties.
Could affect the title race if they did that, and that'd not go down well with partisans of the negatively affected contender, (neutrals likewise).
Mr. Monksfield, how do you rationalise the EU's position that the Irish border settlement must precede a trade agreement?0 -
It's stupid and naive unless you see the negotiations as a zero sum game.Monksfield said:
I'm not sure it has been stupid and naive, only if you see it exclusively through a UK prism. They've made it abundantly clear from the start what the consequences of leaving were for us, and that they couldn't be seen to offer us a deal which matched what we had before. As we'd always been given preferential treatment anyway, it was never likely to be cake snd eat it. If our behaviour since has hardened their stance, then I for one am not really surprised. Bozo telling them to go whistle, veiled threats on security cooperation. Etc etc. If there is stubbornness in this it may now be on the EU side, but by God there's no doubt whatsoever about where the incompetence lies.ydoethur said:
Monksfield, I make allowances for somebody who admires Corbyn, but you do know I am a Remainer, don't you? As is say Alistair, or Joff. Or indeed most people who see these talks collapsing because of a mixture of British stubbornness and EU incompetence.Monksfield said:
It's just standard fog in the channel stuff, FF. Everybody with a different agenda is a failed pygmy. Meanwhile the colossi who currently rule us....FF43 said:
What are your objections to Barnier and why would Merkel have an issue with Commission "bungling"? It is not obvious to me.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
I do agree with the view on May. No question in my mind her 'support' for remain was just trying to guess the direction of the wind. And got it wrong, but weirdly it sort of worked out for her. Sort of being the operative.
The reason I am criticising the EU is because their approach has been unbelievably stupid and naive, not because I want us to crash out with no deal (I really can't understand why anyone would wish us to do that, in any case).
Which in itself would be remarkaby stupid.
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When 'the Brexit related downturn' takes place which will be shortly before the next election I can't see how choosing a new leader will help. May was at least a notional Remainer unlike nearlly all her possible successors.
If the downturn is severe and the Tories make the wrong choice (almost inevitable) It's by no means impossible to see a scenario with a Labour landslide of Blair-like proportions.0 -
Who is their Blair, reassuring middle England and the business community?Roger said:
If the downturn is severe and the Tories make the wrong choice (almost inevitable) It's by no means impossible to see a scenario with a Labour landslide of Blair-like proportions.0 -
This disaster is what happens when you narrowly vote to take on an economic superpower with no plan for what you want, no preparations for implementing your non plan and many of the presuppositions of the 51.9% leave vote are shown to be demonstrably untrue in early negotiations. If you add in the added delay of the GE and the chaos of the result... Too early to tell what's going to happen. Any number of things could alter the power balance between the two sides from the current dynamic.
While I'm more certain by the month that Brexit will be an epochal socioeconomic disaster for the UK it may very well turn out to be a narrowly popular one. The evidence mounts the core of the Leaver vote will blame the EU for leaving the EU being ****. It is after all a strategy that's worked since 1975 so I should be less surprised.
The two overlapping but distinct strategies for Remainers now are ( a) delay. ( b ) turning the populist mob backlash in the lying Charlatans of the Leave campaign not the EU. I'm more hopeful about the former than the later.
However as the disaster unfolds it's perfectly possible to hold together a core europhile vote much higher than quit's in 1975. This is after all an intergenerational struggle. The intergenerational problem for British Europhiles is we've been terminally reasonable. The experience of having stood against this fiasco and Beng subsequently vindicated could form an angry but iron core. If Leave has taught us anything it's that Identity is powerful stuff.
In the meantime just keep buggering on as the Great European said and whisper in the electorate's ear " They don't know what they are doing. We don't have to go through with it. "0 -
On the contrary, it is only the EU27 who seem to believe in Brexit!ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
It is our side that has ruled out Customs Union or remaining in the Single Market and is now crying unfair at their own decision.
You may not like Barnier or Juncker, but we do not get to choose who the other side consists of. The EU have done a hell of a lot of back room preparations, while our side started this summer, 12 months later. The EU27 have a carefully worked out position and are surprised that our side expects them to wing it.
May is a numpty who has let the lunatics take over the asylum. It is not the EU27 's fault if it all is a shambles lashed together at the last moment.
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Duplicate.0
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Newstatesman on Labour:
"There is also an emerging consensus among the party’s power brokers on both left and right that the next leader should be a woman..."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2017/08/labour-s-new-brexit-policy-finally-offers-remainers-glimmer-hope
Thornberry? She is 2nd fav to Keir Starmer.0 -
Mr. Borough, cheers for that. When I look at the F1 odds later I might check Thornberry's too.
Dr. Foxinsox, carefully thought out, yet utterly contradictory when it comes to the border/trade.0 -
On your second point, fair enough, I take my comment back.Monksfield said:
I'm not sure it has been stupid and naive, only if you see it exclusively through a UK prism. They've made it abundantly clear from the start what the consequences of leaving were for us, and that they couldn't be seen to offer us a deal which matched what we had before. As we'd always been given preferential treatment anyway, it was never likely to be cake snd eat it. If our behaviour since has hardened their stance, then I for one am not really surprised. Bozo telling them to go whistle, veiled threats on security cooperation. Etc etc. If there is stubbornness in this it may now be on the EU side, but by God there's no doubt whatsoever about where the incompetence lies.ydoethur said:Monksfield, I make allowances for somebody who admires Corbyn, but you do know I am a Remainer, don't you? As is say Alistair, or Joff. Or indeed most people who see these talks collapsing because of a mixture of British stubbornness and EU incompetence.
The reason I am criticising the EU is because their approach has been unbelievably stupid and naive, not because I want us to crash out with no deal (I really can't understand why anyone would wish us to do that, in any case).
As for Corbyn, I've repeatedly said on here that I'm not a fan. And I stand by that. However, where his manifesto sat was much closer to my views than say, the Miliband manifesto. And for that reason Labour got my vote in 2017.
I've no objection to them offering a deal that doesn't match what we had before. That's not only fair enough but inevitable, or there would be no point in being a member. But when you look at it with a cold eye, it's not a deal they want but preferential treatment for themselves in Britain - in effect, forcing us to take all the rubbish of the EU (the bills, the courts, the political system) without the trading rights that are the only thing that make it worth having. And then they seem not to get why this is not being exactly well received. Of course, the British position is the precise opposite, but actually we're not currently asking for anything much beyond the Canadian deal and offering a great deal more for it.
That's nothing to do with a prism and everything to do with reality. As Alistair says, they seem not to have thought through what effect it will have on relations with a country right next door that is crucial to their financial and military security. Therefore it is stupid and naive.0 -
That may not be the case on the Brexit bill.....foxinsoxuk said:
The EU have done a hell of a lot of back room preparationsydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.CarlottaVance said:
But no reason to rule out mutual recognition when it's part of trade deals.....this feels like the "Punishment Brexit" rather than "Pragmatic Brexit"not_on_fire said:
Isn't the point that the UK will have a land border with the EU that it wants to keep open (NI)? No such equivalent for Canada.FF43 said:Second like Theresa May's chance.
Third like Theresa May's rate
This is the conundrum for the EU. It needs membership to be seen as valuable so countries want to join and stay but if countries can't or won't be members it also wants them to be part of their system. They haven't really addressed this issue AFAICTCarlottaVance said:
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.0 -
There doesn't need to be a Blair, just a desire to depose the Tories.CarlottaVance said:
Who is their Blair, reassuring middle England and the business community?Roger said:
If the downturn is severe and the Tories make the wrong choice (almost inevitable) It's by no means impossible to see a scenario with a Labour landslide of Blair-like proportions.
This is a government like the 92 Major one, adrift and infighting. Blair won by 200 seats, but even a less media friendly sort would have had a safe working majority.
I look forward to Jezza taking over from this ship of fools.
0 -
There is a strong belief here that the next leader of the Labour Party should be the best person for the job, not the best person to fulfill a nebulous quota of female leaders.rottenborough said:Newstatesman on Labour:
"There is also an emerging consensus among the party’s power brokers on both left and right that the next leader should be a woman..."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2017/08/labour-s-new-brexit-policy-finally-offers-remainers-glimmer-hope
Thornberry? She is 2nd fav to Keir Starmer.0 -
Labour offer nothing like an alternative government. But the Conservatives have not yet begun to grasp how completely they are destroying their reputation for competence and pragmatism by pursuing Brexit in such an extreme, ideological and offensive way. Many who have no love for Labour will see no alternative to voting for them.foxinsoxuk said:
There doesn't need to be a Blair, just a desire to depose the Tories.CarlottaVance said:
Who is their Blair, reassuring middle England and the business community?Roger said:
If the downturn is severe and the Tories make the wrong choice (almost inevitable) It's by no means impossible to see a scenario with a Labour landslide of Blair-like proportions.
This is a government like the 92 Major one, adrift and infighting. Blair won by 200 seats, but even a less media friendly sort would have had a safe working majority.
I look forward to Jezza taking over from this ship of fools.0 -
Dr. Foxinsox, the man admires the economics of Venezuela and has called those who throw gay men and political rivals from rooftops 'friends'.
I can absolutely see why a lefty might want Cooper or Umunna or suchlike to be PM rather than May. But Corbyn? He's far left. Happy to march beside hammer and sickle flags. And he's a unilateralist.
I cannot fathom why seemingly reasonable leftwingers are suddenly comfortable with the likes of Corbyn.0 -
On the general shape of the negotiations, most are forgetting that there is no such thing as a reasonable or unreasonable deal.0
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The hard border being in the Irish Sea is a perfectly valid solution, and NI did vote Remain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, cheers for that. When I look at the F1 odds later I might check Thornberry's too.
Dr. Foxinsox, carefully thought out, yet utterly contradictory when it comes to the border/trade.
Of course the DUP may not like it, but it is a viable resolution.0 -
The DUP could probably live with a hard border on the island of Ireland. The people for whom it would be a nightmare in general don't vote for them.foxinsoxuk said:
The hard border being in the Irish Sea is a perfectly valid solution, and NI did vote Remain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, cheers for that. When I look at the F1 odds later I might check Thornberry's too.
Dr. Foxinsox, carefully thought out, yet utterly contradictory when it comes to the border/trade.
Of course the DUP may not like it, but it is a viable resolution.
EDIT more precisely, it wouldn't be a nightmare for most of their voters.0 -
You cannot see why 40% voted for him? that says more about how out of touch you and your caricature of him is. He only requires a few more converts to have a majority.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, the man admires the economics of Venezuela and has called those who throw gay men and political rivals from rooftops 'friends'.
I can absolutely see why a lefty might want Cooper or Umunna or suchlike to be PM rather than May. But Corbyn? He's far left. Happy to march beside hammer and sickle flags. And he's a unilateralist.
I cannot fathom why seemingly reasonable leftwingers are suddenly comfortable with the likes of Corbyn.
In practice, I think he is too disorganised to be malignant.0 -
Dr. Foxinsox, a hard border inside a country is not going to fly. Not to mention, (although I am), that if NI was in the single market/customs union then Sturgeon would bleat for likewise.0
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That ignores volumes of trade.foxinsoxuk said:
The hard border being in the Irish Sea is a perfectly valid solution, and NI did vote Remain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, cheers for that. When I look at the F1 odds later I might check Thornberry's too.
Dr. Foxinsox, carefully thought out, yet utterly contradictory when it comes to the border/trade.
Of course the DUP may not like it, but it is a viable resolution.0 -
Be careful what you wish for.foxinsoxuk said:
I look forward to Jezza taking over from this ship of fools.CarlottaVance said:
Who is their Blair, reassuring middle England and the business community?Roger said:
If the downturn is severe and the Tories make the wrong choice (almost inevitable) It's by no means impossible to see a scenario with a Labour landslide of Blair-like proportions.
0 -
Several odd things about this post. Barnier is very well-respected in the EU and so far as I can tell hasn't been criticised at all so far. Why it shouldn't be legal when it's approved by all three arms of the trialogue? If they'd wanted talks to fail they'd have appionted a fiery super-integrationist like Verhofstadt. Barnier seems competent, organised and level-headed, unlike some of our team.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
As for the "strangely detached attitude", Europe sees us as the eccentric cousin who wants to go and live on Holy Island. It's regrettable but ultimately his choice and not the first order of business. Merkel has an election to fight and other immediate priorities. It's a fundamental British error to think that everyone is talking about us - they think we're barmy but marginal. Ultimately it's something delegated to the Commission to sort out and they'll have a look at the result next year.0 -
Dr. Foxinsox, the same reason a lacklustre May got so many votes. It's a MAD situation.
And, to quote Emperor Palpatine: Oh, no. I think you will find that it is you who are mistaken.0 -
On topic, Boris has warmly endorsed May's comments: I agree that everyone else has been pointedly staring into space. I still think a deal on Brexit is likely - there will be further rows and a point where it all seems to break down, but in the end something will be agreed. At that, point, May will present it as a success under difficult circumstances, and I can't see the Tories in general doing anything else. So how do they then spin round and say "but she's got to go"?0
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The business community are 90% Remain. They are aghast at where this NEW Tory Party has landed them. Just look at the Remain figures in the big cities particularly London and what happened to Tory support at the last election in those places. And that was BEFORE any noticable downturn.CarlottaVance said:
Who is their Blair, reassuring middle England and the business community?Roger said:
If the downturn is severe and the Tories make the wrong choice (almost inevitable) It's by no means impossible to see a scenario with a Labour landslide of Blair-like proportions.
It's an extraordinary thing when you think of the damage the EU has done to the Tory Party over the decades and it's easy to see as this chapter closes that the best has been saved for last. They don't need a Blair. Just being something less barking than the Tories will do.0 -
Morning. Well done on your Bottas e/w bet yesterday.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. 43, interesting set of tweets.
F1: intriguing to see how close Ferrari can get, but I still think this is a Mercedes circuit. Also, small chance of a Force India podium, perhaps.
The F2 qualifying session was a rainy mess, P3 could be completely washed out.0 -
You may not like it as a solution, but it is one of several possible options to have a seamless Irish border. NI has always had autonomous status, this would merely be a gilding of it.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, a hard border inside a country is not going to fly. Not to mention, (although I am), that if NI was in the single market/customs union then Sturgeon would bleat for likewise.
Customs Union would be fine, no need for full single market.0 -
For my own part, I was against Corbyn until the GE campaign... mainly on the grounds of my perception of his incompetence. But then I read the Labour manifesto and liked it. A lot.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, the man admires the economics of Venezuela and has called those who throw gay men and political rivals from rooftops 'friends'.
I can absolutely see why a lefty might want Cooper or Umunna or suchlike to be PM rather than May. But Corbyn? He's far left. Happy to march beside hammer and sickle flags. And he's a unilateralist.
I cannot fathom why seemingly reasonable leftwingers are suddenly comfortable with the likes of Corbyn.
Since we don't have a presidential system, I will vote for the party not the leader; it's the policies that count.0 -
The best option would be to arrange it behind the scenes and give her a red carpet departure. If that can't be done, then the undoubted grumbling about the deal will have to be a public factor, though most of the blame can still be assigned to the EU.NickPalmer said:On topic, Boris has warmly endorsed May's comments: I agree that everyone else has been pointedly staring into space. I still think a deal on Brexit is likely - there will be further rows and a point where it all seems to break down, but in the end something will be agreed. At that, point, May will present it as a success under difficult circumstances, and I can't see the Tories in general doing anything else. So how do they then spin round and say "but she's got to go"?
0 -
Morning. Well done on your Bottas bet yesterday.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. 43, interesting set of tweets.
F1: intriguing to see how close Ferrari can get, but I still think this is a Mercedes circuit. Also, small chance of a Force India podium, perhaps.
Monza is currently underwater, the F2 qualy session was a washout and F1 P3 could well be the same...0 -
Although Luke turned out to be right on that one.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, the same reason a lacklustre May got so many votes. It's a MAD situation.
And, to quote Emperor Palpatine: Oh, no. I think you will find that it is you who are mistaken.0 -
Very sound as ever Mr P. I think there is a good chance she will lead the Tories into the next GE, especially if the polls point to the Tories still appearing competitive with Labour.NickPalmer said:On topic, Boris has warmly endorsed May's comments: I agree that everyone else has been pointedly staring into space. I still think a deal on Brexit is likely - there will be further rows and a point where it all seems to break down, but in the end something will be agreed. At that, point, May will present it as a success under difficult circumstances, and I can't see the Tories in general doing anything else. So how do they then spin round and say "but she's got to go"?
0 -
To add insult to injury, he had to give her a valuable gift (a jewel worth £120) when she left. The whole affair cost a third of his incomeJohnLoony said:This weekend is the 440th anniversary of the three days when Lord North paid £642 4s 2d to entertain Queen Elizabeth I and her 2,000 guests.
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And parliamentary maths.CarlottaVance said:
That ignores volumes of trade.foxinsoxuk said:
The hard border being in the Irish Sea is a perfectly valid solution, and NI did vote Remain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, cheers for that. When I look at the F1 odds later I might check Thornberry's too.
Dr. Foxinsox, carefully thought out, yet utterly contradictory when it comes to the border/trade.
Of course the DUP may not like it, but it is a viable resolution.0 -
Or health. Her diabetes and age could easily be spun into a safe excuse, as with Balfour in 1911. The advantage would be that would allow her to not be seen to be breaking her word, and let everyone unite to pay tribute to her - without then having to support her in an election campaign.david_herdson said:
The best option would be to arrange it behind the scenes and give her a red carpet departure. If that can't be done, then the undoubted grumbling about the deal will have to be a public factor, though most of the blame can still be assigned to the EU.NickPalmer said:On topic, Boris has warmly endorsed May's comments: I agree that everyone else has been pointedly staring into space. I still think a deal on Brexit is likely - there will be further rows and a point where it all seems to break down, but in the end something will be agreed. At that, point, May will present it as a success under difficult circumstances, and I can't see the Tories in general doing anything else. So how do they then spin round and say "but she's got to go"?
0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/02/brexit-britain-deal-europe-clean-break-fractious-talks-brussels. This has a ring of truth about it that the EU wants a clean break.0
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Mr. Sandpit, cheers. Any word on qualifying weather?
Mr. Pointer, Labour leaders in the past (tuition fees, income tax, Lisbon referendum) have happily thrown away manifesto pledges after winning a majority. Trusting Corbyn would be, I fear, a very serious mistake.
Mr. Herdson, true, although the Emperor's plan itself was fine, the problem was that his troops were so incompetent they were defeated by a gang of pygmy teddy bears.0 -
She'd need to be willing to sign up to that but yes, it could. It would have the advantage of being true, too. Nine or ten years straight in a Great Office is hard work.ydoethur said:
Or health. Her diabetes and age could easily be spun into a safe excuse, as with Balfour in 1911. The advantage would be that would allow her to not be seen to be breaking her word, and let everyone unite to pay tribute to her - without then having it support her in an election campaign.david_herdson said:
The best option would be to arrange it behind the scenes and give her a red carpet departure. If that can't be done, then the undoubted grumbling about the deal will have to be a public factor, though most of the blame can still be assigned to the EU.NickPalmer said:On topic, Boris has warmly endorsed May's comments: I agree that everyone else has been pointedly staring into space. I still think a deal on Brexit is likely - there will be further rows and a point where it all seems to break down, but in the end something will be agreed. At that, point, May will present it as a success under difficult circumstances, and I can't see the Tories in general doing anything else. So how do they then spin round and say "but she's got to go"?
0 -
+1foxinsoxuk said:
You cannot see why 40% voted for him? that says more about how out of touch you and your caricature of him is. He only requires a few more converts to have a majority.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, the man admires the economics of Venezuela and has called those who throw gay men and political rivals from rooftops 'friends'.
I can absolutely see why a lefty might want Cooper or Umunna or suchlike to be PM rather than May. But Corbyn? He's far left. Happy to march beside hammer and sickle flags. And he's a unilateralist.
I cannot fathom why seemingly reasonable leftwingers are suddenly comfortable with the likes of Corbyn.
In practice, I think he is too disorganised to be malignant.0 -
I don't especially like the government, but it's doing no harm to me and mine, whereas Jezza would do.foxinsoxuk said:
There doesn't need to be a Blair, just a desire to depose the Tories.CarlottaVance said:
Who is their Blair, reassuring middle England and the business community?Roger said:
If the downturn is severe and the Tories make the wrong choice (almost inevitable) It's by no means impossible to see a scenario with a Labour landslide of Blair-like proportions.
This is a government like the 92 Major one, adrift and infighting. Blair won by 200 seats, but even a less media friendly sort would have had a safe working majority.
I look forward to Jezza taking over from this ship of fools.0 -
The Emperor's plan failed to consider Vader's defection, more importantly.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, cheers. Any word on qualifying weather?
Mr. Pointer, Labour leaders in the past (tuition fees, income tax, Lisbon referendum) have happily thrown away manifesto pledges after winning a majority. Trusting Corbyn would be, I fear, a very serious mistake.
Mr. Herdson, true, although the Emperor's plan itself was fine, the problem was that his troops were so incompetent they were defeated by a gang of pygmy teddy bears.0 -
I concur with the point about business being overwhelmingly remain, apart from a vocal minority. I recall last year having lunch with a guy who owns a very successful business, he has always been a irritating, racist tory. He couldn't come to terms with the referendum result and believed that the conservative party would come to their senses and overturn it. It's now blindingly obvious that it ain't going to happen.Roger said:
The business community are 90% Remain. They are aghast at where this NEW Tory Party has landed them. Just look at the Remain figures in the big cities particularly London and what happened to Tory support at the last election in those places. And that was BEFORE any noticable downturn.CarlottaVance said:
Who is their Blair, reassuring middle England and the business community?Roger said:
If the downturn is severe and the Tories make the wrong choice (almost inevitable) It's by no means impossible to see a scenario with a Labour landslide of Blair-like proportions.
It's an extraordinary thing when you think of the damage the EU has done to the Tory Party over the decades and it's easy to see as this chapter closes that the best has been saved for last. They don't need a Blair. Just being something less barking than the Tories will do.
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I don't make assumptions. That's why I asked the question! Barnier's job is to represent the hammered out collective position of the EU27 countries. AFAIK he's been doing this competently but it remains to be seen whether they will get a deal with us. Personally I am confident they will. Merkel hasn't, I believe, shown any dissatisfaction with the Commission's handling of Brexit. If there are any differences between Barnier and Merkel she's more hardline. Barnier does have extensive other experience for example in Internal Market negotiations. His deputy, Sabine Weyand is probably the world's greatest expert on trade deals. By contrast David Davis is inexperienced and poorly informed. Talent is generally thin on the UK top team, with the exception of Tim Barrow, the UK ambassador to the EU.ydoethur said:
You mean apart from the fact his most senior post in politics was French Minister for Agriculture - from which he had to be sacked after a judge found he (and in fairness, his department) had lied repeatedly about the extent of BSE in French cattle? Or that he is clearly completely clueless in the art of negotiation? Or that he has failed to put out realistic policy documents, and those that he has put out have actually proposed a dual legal system for a sovereign state?FF43 said:
What are your objections to Barnier and why would Merkel have an issue with Commission "bungling"? It is not obvious to me.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
I'll assume that you don't mean what you say in the second part. I am sure you do not actually think that there is no obvious reason why Merkel should be worried that the Commission couldn't organise an orgy in a brothel.0 -
It also presupposes that Corbyn would have the political skill and administrative talent to carry out his promises even if he wanted to (and in fairness I think he did). The way he has run the Labour Party since taking it over does not exactly lend encouragement to that hypothesis.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pointer, Labour leaders in the past (tuition fees, income tax, Lisbon referendum) have happily thrown away manifesto pledges after winning a majority. Trusting Corbyn would be, I fear, a very serious mistake.
0 -
Yes, I recognise promises can get dropped... whether you think Labour is more likely to drop them than the Tories probably comes down to your underlying political persuasion. But you've more chance of something happening if it's in the elected government's manifesto than if it's not.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, cheers. Any word on qualifying weather?
Mr. Pointer, Labour leaders in the past (tuition fees, income tax, Lisbon referendum) have happily thrown away manifesto pledges after winning a majority. Trusting Corbyn would be, I fear, a very serious mistake.
Mr. Herdson, true, although the Emperor's plan itself was fine, the problem was that his troops were so incompetent they were defeated by a gang of pygmy teddy bears.
0 -
I suspect Brexit simply morphs in to the wider existential crisis facing them. One of many problems.NickPalmer said:
Several odd things about this post. Barnier is very well-respected in the EU and so far as I can tell hasn't been criticised at all so far. Why it shouldn't be legal when it's approved by all three arms of the trialogue? If they'd wanted talks to fail they'd have appionted a fiery super-integrationist like Verhofstadt. Barnier seems competent, organised and level-headed, unlike some of our team.ydoethur said:
If the EU were serious about these talks, it is hard to imagine they would have agreed to Juncker's (legally highly dubious) appointment of Barnier to lead negotiations. They would have wanted somebody significant and competent, not a failed third tier cabinet minister.
I think they genuinely don't believe that we are leaving. Either this is shock or hubris - I suspect the former. That would account for Merkel's strangely detached attitude and unwillingness to confront the Commission over their bungling.
It's very damaging to everybody, but there we are.
As for the "strangely detached attitude", Europe sees us as the eccentric cousin who wants to go and live on Holy Island. It's regrettable but ultimately his choice and not the first order of business. Merkel has an election to fight and other immediate priorities. It's a fundamental British error to think that everyone is talking about us - they think we're barmy but marginal. Ultimately it's something delegated to the Commission to sort out and they'll have a look at the result next year.
0 -
Mr. Herdson, jein. That flaw was one of failing to turn Luke to the dark side. If that had been considered then stating Luke would take Vader's place (rather diminishing Vader's loyalty) would not have happened.
Mr. Doethur, Corbyn's won two leadership elections and now even those who signed a no confidence motion have resumed their traditional sheep-like loyalty.0 -
I'm still deeply uncomfortable with Corbyn.Benpointer said:
For my own part, I was against Corbyn until the GE campaign... mainly on the grounds of my perception of his incompetence. But then I read the Labour manifesto and liked it. A lot.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, the man admires the economics of Venezuela and has called those who throw gay men and political rivals from rooftops 'friends'.
I can absolutely see why a lefty might want Cooper or Umunna or suchlike to be PM rather than May. But Corbyn? He's far left. Happy to march beside hammer and sickle flags. And he's a unilateralist.
I cannot fathom why seemingly reasonable leftwingers are suddenly comfortable with the likes of Corbyn.
Since we don't have a presidential system, I will vote for the party not the leader; it's the policies that count.
The problem is that there is no serious plan behind his ideas and likeable as he is, he doesn't have the temprement to be PM.
But what worries me is not a Corbyn government, it is what happens after a Corbyn government.
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Corbyn's treatment of Sarah Champion shows why a Corbyn-led government would not be a good thing. Police, politicians, and prosecutors would be expected to look the other way.0
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Yes, that puts what I was saying better than I did.Yorkcity said:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/02/brexit-britain-deal-europe-clean-break-fractious-talks-brussels. This has a ring of truth about it that the EU wants a clean break.
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Mr. F, that's not true. They'd also be expected to be mute about child rape gangs when prosecutions were successful. [If they ever were...].0
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A fat lot of use that is when they have set their face against discussing trade deals. Having heard her talking with a singular lack of knowledge about travel rights as well I'm pretty dubious about the extent of her real ability, frankly. As for Barnier, his great triumph was organising a Winter Olympics. It's becoming painfully evident why that was the high point.FF43 said:His deputy, Sabine Weyand is probably the world's greatest expert on trade deals.
The priceless irony of that article is that it is the EU that is doing the most cherry picking. It wants in effect FoM for its people and the authority of its courts in Britain, while ending FoM for the British and limiting the scope of its own judiciary and parliament.Yorkcity said:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/02/brexit-britain-deal-europe-clean-break-fractious-talks-brussels. This has a ring of truth about it that the EU wants a clean break.
Now I have no objection to them putting these forward. Their job is to get the best deal they can. But to do that, refuse to discuss pertinent, closely related issues that will clearly affect them and criticise the other side for being delusional and wanting to have its cake and eat it - well, all I can say is that I think their behaviour is making hem look ridiculous. If the consequences were not so very serious and alarming it would be funnier than the time Theresa May's 'strong and stable' van was blown over..0 -
Generally we vote for parties, not presidents, but in any case it is a forced choice: Conservatives but only if Amber Rudd can be leader was not on the ballot paper.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, the man admires the economics of Venezuela and has called those who throw gay men and political rivals from rooftops 'friends'.
I can absolutely see why a lefty might want Cooper or Umunna or suchlike to be PM rather than May. But Corbyn? He's far left. Happy to march beside hammer and sickle flags. And he's a unilateralist.
I cannot fathom why seemingly reasonable leftwingers are suddenly comfortable with the likes of Corbyn.
But suppose you are right about Corbyn. How did Labour get 40 per cent if every voter in the land saw what you saw -- which given the roasting he got in the press, most of them did?
We must conclude that the public thought these things irrelevant: Corbyn may be unilateralist but Labour policy is not, so it does not matter. Or they might agree Hamas is terrible but also see the Saudis execute hundreds of people and are bombing Yemen into the stone age, and Theresa May's not condemned it, so that Middle East politics is netted off. Or they might take your negatives as positives -- Germany and Spain aren't clamouring for nuclear weapons so perhaps we don't need them, these voters might say.
Because if you do not do this sort of analysis, you must conclude that nearly half the country is stupid, evil, or has been bribed. And yes, some activists for other parties might take the same view of your lot's voters, but it does not really get us anywhere.0 -
I wouldn't think that anyone should be concerned that Corbyn will cheerily reverse his opinions after election and say ha ha, I'm the PM now, stuff the left-wing promises. The probability of that is precisely zero. As with any government, there is reason to be concerned that promises will be hard to implement successfully, which is why Labour can't just sit around and wait for the Government to collapse but needs to use the time to make the package as deliverable as possible. The 2017 manifesto was great IMO, but undoubtedly a rush job, and we need to make it as economically solid as possible. McDonnell sees that very clearly and I expect a few embarrassing trims before we get an election to try to ensure that's the case.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, cheers. Any word on qualifying weather?
Mr. Pointer, Labour leaders in the past (tuition fees, income tax, Lisbon referendum) have happily thrown away manifesto pledges after winning a majority. Trusting Corbyn would be, I fear, a very serious mistake.
Mr. Herdson, true, although the Emperor's plan itself was fine, the problem was that his troops were so incompetent they were defeated by a gang of pygmy teddy bears.0 -
Anecdote alert!
I've not long come back from a glorious 10 days in a little Algarve resort, right next to the Spanish border. Not very touristy, but lots of Portuguese having their 2 weeks away from work, and a smattering of EU expats. Our first time on a foreign holiday of any length without at least one of the lads with us, and it was strange not having to entertain them or find a water park or an amusement park.
We used Air BnB and rented a small house with a private pool, and my wife spent afternoons baking in the sun, while I get bored and went exploring alone.
Most afternoons, I ended up at a bar run by an Israeli guy and his Dutch wife, helped by an English barman, Portuguese chef, Polish waitress and various family members.
No one mentioned Brexit. Not the staff, Portuguese I talked to, or any of the expats of various nations who I got to know over a few drinks. I eventually brought Brexit up, and it sparked a lively debate.
To cut a long story short, given the constraints of how many different languages were being spoken, I didn't detect any great love for the EU. Most of the Portuguese liked the EU a lot. There was a feeling that it was better to be in it than out of it, but pretty much everyone thought it was flawed and wanted some type of reform. A few of them, the Dutch bar owner, a German soldier and Polish waitress thought we were right to vote out, as they weren't keen on the political aspect, but most, including a couple of Brits understood why we voted out thought we were making a short term error but we'd be ok in the end as both the EU and Britain need each other.
The Dutch bar owner summed it up by saying "If you make it hard for the Brits to come to the Algarve, you will have to fucking close the Algarve!"
In summary, the EU citizens I met couldn't give a flying fuck about Brexit, but wanted it to work for all our sakes.0 -
Anyway, on a personal note - I am going away for the weekend to see my father and try to get some family stuff sorted. So I won't be back on the threads today or tomorrow. With school resuming on Monday I doubt if I will have time to post for the next few weeks. So I am saying goodbye for the present, I hope temporarily. With a new member of staff arriving my timetable has gone from the ridiculous to the bearable, so with luck I won't have any repeat of the health problems that made me so grumpy towards the end of last year and that may allow me more time for other interests. However, it's still a lot of work and I don't know when I'll be back.
Thank you all for your company and insights over the summer, I have enjoyed the discussions very much. I hope they stay classy as ever in future.
Da boch.0 -
Can we deal with one national crisis at a time please?nielh said:
I'm still deeply uncomfortable with Corbyn.Benpointer said:
For my own part, I was against Corbyn until the GE campaign... mainly on the grounds of my perception of his incompetence. But then I read the Labour manifesto and liked it. A lot.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, the man admires the economics of Venezuela and has called those who throw gay men and political rivals from rooftops 'friends'.
I can absolutely see why a lefty might want Cooper or Umunna or suchlike to be PM rather than May. But Corbyn? He's far left. Happy to march beside hammer and sickle flags. And he's a unilateralist.
I cannot fathom why seemingly reasonable leftwingers are suddenly comfortable with the likes of Corbyn.
Since we don't have a presidential system, I will vote for the party not the leader; it's the policies that count.
The problem is that there is no serious plan behind his ideas and likeable as he is, he doesn't have the temprement to be PM.
But what worries me is not a Corbyn government, it is what happens after a Corbyn government.0 -
Yes - it does. This sentence jumped out though: "But again, leaving was Britain’s choice. The EU did not initiate any of this."Yorkcity said:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/02/brexit-britain-deal-europe-clean-break-fractious-talks-brussels. This has a ring of truth about it that the EU wants a clean break.
The first part is true. The second is, in its own way, delusional. Britain's departure was not inevitable. How the EU developed, how it behaved towards Britain (and other member states) and how it dealt with Britain over the deal negotiations did have something to do with Britain's departure. The failure of the EU to recognise this, to show even the slightest inkling of understanding that when a member leaves after over 40 years experience, some self-reflection on whether you might, could or should have done things differently to keep them on board, especially given the closeness of the result, is one reason perhaps why relations aren't now as good as they could be.
While it is true that Britain cannot ignore Continental Europe, the reverse is also true. It would help now if the EU recognised this. They too are ignoring the lessons of history.
The other point that might be made is that, in wanting a clean break, the EU is ignoring the express words of its own Article 50. Still, it is not the first time that it has ignored its own rules when convenient, ironically one of the reasons Britain has found the organisation do maddening at times.
Still, we are where we are and the government should be making urgent plans for a hard WTO departure with all that that will entail.0 -
That is very true. During the last election campaign the local conservative MP was doing a photo op in the market square. He asked a local businessman to join him. The reply - "not so fast, I haven't made my mind up yet." Conservative voters switching to Labour isn't the whole story. Disheartening the base so they are less inclined to turn out can have a big impact, and one that the polls don't fully capture. Ask Ed Miliband about that.AlastairMeeks said:
Labour offer nothing like an alternative government. But the Conservatives have not yet begun to grasp how completely they are destroying their reputation for competence and pragmatism by pursuing Brexit in such an extreme, ideological and offensive way. Many who have no love for Labour will see no alternative to voting for them.foxinsoxuk said:
There doesn't need to be a Blair, just a desire to depose the Tories.CarlottaVance said:
Who is their Blair, reassuring middle England and the business community?Roger said:
If the downturn is severe and the Tories make the wrong choice (almost inevitable) It's by no means impossible to see a scenario with a Labour landslide of Blair-like proportions.
This is a government like the 92 Major one, adrift and infighting. Blair won by 200 seats, but even a less media friendly sort would have had a safe working majority.
I look forward to Jezza taking over from this ship of fools.
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Absolutely pissing it down in Monza. That wasn’t in the script for this weekend!
Session clock will start with a red flag waving.0 -
I've enjoyed reading your contributions. thanks.ydoethur said:Anyway, on a personal note - I am going away for the weekend to see my father and try to get some family stuff sorted. So I won't be back on the threads today or tomorrow. With school resuming on Monday I doubt if I will have time to post for the next few weeks. So I am saying goodbye for the present, I hope temporarily. With a new member of staff arriving my timetable has gone from the ridiculous to the bearable, so with luck I won't have any repeat of the health problems that made me so grumpy towards the end of last year and that may allow me more time for other interests. However, it's still a lot of work and I don't know when I'll be back.
Thank you all for your company and insights over the summer, I have enjoyed the discussions very much. I hope they stay classy as ever in future.
Da boch.0 -
I strongly suspect the cooling of the economy through Brexit will make life very difficult for Corbyn's policy ideas, such as nationalising the railways, or NHS spending uplifts, which require government debt.NickPalmer said:
I wouldn't think that anyone should be concerned that Corbyn will cheerily reverse his opinions after election and say ha ha, I'm the PM now, stuff the left-wing promises. The probability of that is precisely zero. As with any government, there is reason to be concerned that promises will be hard to implement successfully, which is why Labour can't just sit around and wait for the Government to collapse but needs to use the time to make the package as deliverable as possible. The 2017 manifesto was great IMO, but undoubtedly a rush job, and we need to make it as economically solid as possible. McDonnell sees that very clearly and I expect a few embarrassing trims before we get an election to try to ensure that's the case.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, cheers. Any word on qualifying weather?
Mr. Pointer, Labour leaders in the past (tuition fees, income tax, Lisbon referendum) have happily thrown away manifesto pledges after winning a majority. Trusting Corbyn would be, I fear, a very serious mistake.
Mr. Herdson, true, although the Emperor's plan itself was fine, the problem was that his troops were so incompetent they were defeated by a gang of pygmy teddy bears.
Indeed, if it goes badly the Labour government could spend five years simply firefighting.0
