politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ladbrokes 20/1 that the Brexit Secretary, DDavis, will be

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/897830203233374208

Ishmael_Z said:

Allan said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Scott_P said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's noteworthy that it's the Leavers who thought that Brexit would be jolly good fun who have got bored with the subject. Evidently it wasn't as jolly good fun as they thought it was going to be.

It's apparently difficult and complicated. Not what was advertised...

While it was being "advertised" you had every opportunity to go out and do something about it: canvassing and manning phone banks were not illegal activities, and might have made more of a difference than sitting and playing with your dingaling on the internet. I feel mildly guilty that all I did for Remain was to cast my vote for it. I wouldn't die of surprise to learn that you didn't even do that. And if internet dingalinging was ineffective then, it's sure as feck even less effective now.

Did Mr Scott post more than 10,000 times on here rather than go out door knocking?

Very possibly, I am afraid. The only people here who claim (perfectly credibly) to have canvassed are invariably Leavers.

Yes, I did organise deliveries for 10,000+ voters. We out delivered Remain by 4:1. The kipper deliverers were stunningly dedicated compared to people from 3 other parties.

Mr. M, that does, at least, have a Pythonesque surrealism to it.

I'm struggling to see why the leader of the Liberal Democrat Party would want to support the launch of a rival party which wants to pinch its voters and half of its name.

Richard_Nabavi said:

SandyRentool said:

Low unemployment combined with below-inflation pay rises does not compute. All my PPE economics* graphs indicate that the two are mutually exclusive. It suggests that real levels of unemployment/underemployment are much higher than the official figures say.

Of course, Conservative government pursuing so-called 'austerity', how there possibly be good news? Does not compute.

If you are looking for statistical anomalies, you'd be much better advised to doubt the average pay data, which is much more likely to be misleading than the unemployment figures. This is because it doesn't measure what you think it measures - it's not the pay of a given cohort of workers.

My cohort got 1% this year.

currystar said:

I am amazed at how little chat there has been on here today about the unempolyment figures released today. |It is a truly remarkable achievement by the Government to acheive such low unemployment and they are getiing no credit for it. If the figure was 9.8% unemployed they would be getting murdered. It just shows in this modern world you never get any credit for good news just hammered for bad news. In fact today the figures have been disected in an attempt to find some bad news in them.

The world has changed in terms of being able to claim unemployment benefit since I was jobless (briefly) in the early 1980s. I suspect there are economically inactive people who choose (or think it easier) not to claim.

The "true" level of unemployment may be much harder to determine and we also have to think about those people who claim and work in the black economy and try to gauge the size of that non-tax paying area.

We have also not considered the problem that with a supply of cheap labour it's much easier to take people on and pay them on rather than consider genuine capital investment to drive improvements in business processes. Oddly enough, one of the by-products of Brexit, if the flow of cheap labour is reduced, may be companies returning to R&D and technological innovation.

Yes, it's our old friend productivity - funny how we don't talk about much either.

Mr. F, Bizarro World, perhaps?

Fights with the Remainiac theme.

Edited extra bit: Brainiac, I think, is a villain's name from Bizarro World.

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

Brexit will be stopped. The questions are how, when and who will take power afterwards. It's the political forces surrendering themselves on the altar of the result last June that are risking their long term futures.

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

I have heard that the LD's "own" the title Democrats in the UK, not sure if that is true.

williamglenn said:

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

Brexit will be stopped. The questions are how, when and who will take power afterwards. It's the political forces surrendering themselves on the altar of the result last June that are risking their long term futures.

You keep thinking that, meanwhile the rest of us will get on with life and wait for what comes out of the negotiations.

Alistair said:

The incredibly high number of "self-employed" probably has something to do with it.

Inconveniently for the nay-sayers, in the last 12 months the number of employees increased by 334,000, whereas the number of self-employed rose by 23,000.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

No leadership contest. I warned people no contest was a bad idea.

Off on a holiday to sunny^_~ south Wales on that date anyway. I shall listen in on 5live with great interest and anticipation !

Where exactly? There's a great hotel I can recommend at Slebech, just before Haverfordwest (which itself is worth a visit in addition to the usual tourist spots like St David's.)

About 4 miles northwest of St Clears :>

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

I see our Conservative PB posters are getting very excited... They shouldn`t be. The Lib Dems will carry on as a separate force. There is nothing to be gained in being swallowed up by a Tory front organisation, which has no hope of getting off the ground anyway.

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

I'm surprised a denial hasn't been issued already. If the Lib Dems really were involved in something like this it wouldn't be publicised almost a month in advance - what would be the point? Plus what has James Chapman got to offer that Vince and the Lib Dems haven't got or couldn't get on their own?

GeoffM said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Clipp, even as a silly comment, that is a silly comment.

To be fair, Mr Dancer, its no sillier than a new party forming specifically to overturn a democratic decision and calling itself The Democrats.

Yeah forming a new political party. The anti-democratic bastard.

Pulpstar said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

No leadership contest. I warned people no contest was a bad idea.

Off on a holiday to sunny^_~ south Wales on that date anyway. I shall listen in on 5live with great interest and anticipation !

Where exactly? There's a great hotel I can recommend at Slebech, just before Haverfordwest (which itself is worth a visit in addition to the usual tourist spots like St David's.)

About 4 miles northwest of St Clears :>

You'd be very close.

http://www.slebech.co.uk/

It's a little tricky to find but worth it. The food is great and the grounds are wonderful. Very relaxing if you like that kind of thing.

I find Pembrokeshire very appealing generally, as much for the variety of its attraction as anything.

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

Potentially, all that's happened is Vince has agreed to speak at the anti-Brexit rally on 9th.

Despite Brexit

Planning permission granted.

http://democracy.camden.gov.uk/documents/s61347/1. Zone A Google 002.pdf

Page 63 - The hanging gardens of Google

Must say it does look quite impressive !

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

Potentially, all that's happened is Vince has agreed to speak at the anti-Brexit rally on 9th.

We only have James Chapman’s word for this.

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/897843121094053889

OldKingCole said:

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

Potentially, all that's happened is Vince has agreed to speak at the anti-Brexit rally on 9th.

We only have James Chapman’s word for this.

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/897742981121396741

ThreeQuidder said:

Slackbladder said:

Alex Wickham‏VERIFIED ACCOUNT @WikiGuido 26 secs27 seconds ago

Labour source: Sarah Champion has resigned from the Shadow Cabinet

If that's because of this, that's a shame.

BBC:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40952224

When Brexit is reversed, we're not going to put up with being half out anymore.

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/897846060604936196

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/897844107321716736

Just gone through the UK's position paper on Ireland. It's a serious proposal, unlike yesterday's publication on customs. A couple of takeaways:

1. Irish nationals not resident in the UK will have much stronger rights under the Common Travel Agreement than other EU nationals who have lived in the UK for decades, under the citizenship proposals. Which doesn't seem right.

2. Any EU national can come freely to the Republic of Ireland and then onto Northern Ireland. They won't be controlled at the border. Although the document doesn't say so, if the UK government wants to stop them coming to mainland Britain it will have to set up immigration controls over the Irish Sea.

3. The weak point is border controls on goods. Another reason for the UK to be in the EU "customs union" that the government claims it doesn't want, although Ireland won't be the driver for any customs union.

williamglenn said:

OldKingCole said:

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

Potentially, all that's happened is Vince has agreed to speak at the anti-Brexit rally on 9th.

We only have James Chapman’s word for this.

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/897742981121396741

Peffectly true; all of it. But doesn’t say he wants anything to with J Chapman.

MJW said:

chrisoxon said:

Sandpit said:

SandyRentool said:

So are we to conclude that on 9th September the Lib Dems will rename themselves as The Democrats?

Surely Vince isn't that suicidal as to surrender his whole party on the altar of anti-Brexit? He'll lose a percentage of his own support, and more importantly any chance of taking support from more liberally-minded Conservative voters.

I'm surprised a denial hasn't been issued already. If the Lib Dems really were involved in something like this it wouldn't be publicised almost a month in advance - what would be the point? Plus what has James Chapman got to offer that Vince and the Lib Dems haven't got or couldn't get on their own?

It could be that they announce an alliance - the Democrats don't stand in places the Lib Dems have a good chance of winning, The Democrats take it to the big two elsewhere. Such a move would help the Lib Dems focus their resources and would provide them with a much needed media boost. The media currently pretty much ignore the Lib Dems as the right-wing papers are vehemently pro-Brexit, and the left's media's primary concern is Labour's civil war. A new party with some big names is just too good a story to ignore one way or the other. Of course it was tried before with the SDP alliance and it failed, but that would mistake the aims of a new party. If it got anywhere near the Lib Dems' pre-2010 vote share they'd be pretty much the only available coalition partner. Depending on the shape of Brexit and public opinion they could either make soft Brexit or a new referendum a red line.

The LD’s have probably got a better chance of winning anywhere than the Chapman Democrats.

PClipp said:

Dura_Ace said:

GeoffM said:

Scott_P said:

GeoffM said:

That's a good thing.

Stripping UK citizens of their rights is "a good thing"...

QED

They aren't "rights" in any fundamental way like free speech or self defence. They are bureaucratic inventions.

I positively voted to reject those particular bits of paperwork. Nobody is "stripping" me of anything.

You voted to take them away from other people. Why?

Perhaps we ought to strip Gibraltarians of their right to hold a British passport?

Well, rights are mutable apparently, so it's something to think about.

welshowl said:

There's deeper point here.

I can see what the EU's tactics are in terms of negotiating in a timeframe from next week to the early 2020's. Get as much cash as we can, "protect" Ireland, keep the ECJ where we want it to be etc etc, and to achieve this you finger wag that none of the sweeties of free trade will be let out of the tin till you've agreed all this (even if by not discussing how many sweeties there are making it all a bit farcical as both strands are interlinked of course).

But what's the strategy? What do they want the UK to be vis a vis them in the period 2025 -2075?

Are they trying to brow beat us not to leave? (that's not going to go down well in much of the populous is it!) Are they trying to beat us up pour encourager les autres in the EU now? Do they want a friend, or a surly neighbour?

Just to chuck this in say they screwed us for £100bn, said the ECJ rules supreme forever, and you must take all EU migrants that we decide - why bother with NATO? Why would I want to defend this lot (quite the opposite)?.

Much of the reason we never really were comfortable stems from the thought Europe was "done to us" not something we were "part of". I fear they are in danger of adopting tactics that will lead to a poor strategic outcome all round.

I think there is a lot in this. Where I have issues with the arguments is the assumption that the EU is out to punish us an the implication that things going wrong with Brexit (surly neighbour etc) are the EU's fault. Leavers who were confident of their cause surely would be indifferent to the EU. They made the right decision and all is Brexit good. Sunlit uplands stand on their own.

Where I agree with your arguments is that the EU for its own good needs to decide how to associate with near countries that don't want to be members. A membership organisation will always put its own members first but it could benefit by association with like-minded countries.

Casino_Royale said:

I'd rate no deal as odds-on. There's too much anger and partisanship on both sides.

And I don't think the EU are really interested in an innovative comprehensive new UK-EU agreement that works. They either want to bring us to heel, or agree a BINO.

It's the politics that will sink this.

I think a messy stalemate is most likely. It probably won't go straight to EEA + CU. That's too slick. There will be a lot of argument, mostly internal to the UK, and then we will end up with an arrangement that gives some of the benefits of EU membership and imposes a number of extra disadvantages.

It's very amusing that James Chapman thinks Theresa May is a 'Nazi' because of the suggestion that an EU resident's card might hold fingerprint data.

I am sure he is entirely consistent, so he must think that all the Schengen countries are Nazi states as well.