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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ladbrokes 20/1 that the Brexit Secretary, DDavis, will be

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    ydoethur said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    free trade Brexiteers want to trade with and embrace the world

    By pulling out of the largest free trade agreement in the World

    Delusional
    The EU is not the largest free trade agreement in the world. NAFTA is. NAFTA also does not restrict you from joining other free trade agreements as the EU does.
    Europe is a Customs Union (or Zollverein) not a Free Trade Area.

    It puts up protectionist walls around itself, rather than advocating free trade

    Hence the dozens of free trade agreements it has concluded, of course.
    Charles didn't know or care that the EMA is an EU institution. It's fair to say his understanding of the EU is incomplete.
    I was wondering what the Education Maintenance Allowance had to do with the EU, then I realised you meant the European Medicines Agency.

    Fewer alphabet soups would be nice. I feel we have become fat on them.
    IAWEM (*)
    (*) I agree with Elon Musk:
    https://twitter.com/davejohnson/status/602951117413216256
    I also agree with the sentiment but am shocked by the apparent dictatorial control style:
    "I will take drastic action... ...Unless an acronym is approved by me".

    Presumably there will have to be an EAAL (Elon Approved Acronym List) maintained.

    Sounds like a fun environment to work in!
    I hope that someone replied pointing out to Mr Musk that VTS-3 (and the others) aren't acronyms.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    GIN1138 said:



    Chapman has gained about 3000 followers since last night. I wonder how many he'll have on 9/9.

    How many of those are actually following him because they agree with him and want to stop democracy and how many are following him because it's like gawping at a motorway pile up (but nobody has got hurt... YET) ??? ;)
    It's like reading the page in Viz where a bitter ex employee sacked for indecency/drunkenness lifts the lid on his old employers, only not as funny
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    TOPPING said:

    And to bring it back to Chappers, he is standing in the middle of Parliament Hill fields, and saying "Come on lads". We shall see who follows him.

    "Revolutionaries do not make revolutions. The revolutionaries are those who know when power is lying in the street and then they can pick it up." - Hannah Arendt

    Brexit has incapacitated the British state and power is there for the taking.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403

    TOPPING said:

    One in five unemployed people in the UK are migrants, official figures have revealed for the first time.

    The figures show that 317,000 migrants are unemployed, including 98,000 who were born in the EU and 219,000 born outside the EU.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/16/one-five-unemployed-people-uk-migrantsofficial-figures-reveal/amp/

    Blimmin heck imagine the inflationary pressures that will arise should they fuck off back home. Or be thrown out. Or not be replaced when they have had their fun living in the UK.
    I think wage inflation is not much affected by high employment levels in the globalised world, and not just in the UK. The jobs will either disappear to automation or be exported.
    A self-making flat white extra hot?
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    chrisoxonchrisoxon Posts: 204

    TOPPING said:

    And to bring it back to Chappers, he is standing in the middle of Parliament Hill fields, and saying "Come on lads". We shall see who follows him.

    "Revolutionaries do not make revolutions. The revolutionaries are those who know when power is lying in the street and then they can pick it up." - Hannah Arendt

    Brexit has incapacitated the British state and power is there for the taking.
    And this knobhead is the great champion you've picked to lead you?

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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    isam said:
    That's no surprise. He broke his promise on tube fares too.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    chrisoxon said:

    TOPPING said:

    And to bring it back to Chappers, he is standing in the middle of Parliament Hill fields, and saying "Come on lads". We shall see who follows him.

    "Revolutionaries do not make revolutions. The revolutionaries are those who know when power is lying in the street and then they can pick it up." - Hannah Arendt

    Brexit has incapacitated the British state and power is there for the taking.
    And this knobhead is the great champion you've picked to lead you?

    We as political geeks should surely applaud an attempt, any attempt at changing the body politic, whoever tries it.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    isam said:
    Are there any of his campaign promises that he has fulfilled?

    The tube fares one was especially cynical.
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    chrisoxonchrisoxon Posts: 204
    TOPPING said:

    chrisoxon said:

    TOPPING said:

    And to bring it back to Chappers, he is standing in the middle of Parliament Hill fields, and saying "Come on lads". We shall see who follows him.

    "Revolutionaries do not make revolutions. The revolutionaries are those who know when power is lying in the street and then they can pick it up." - Hannah Arendt

    Brexit has incapacitated the British state and power is there for the taking.
    And this knobhead is the great champion you've picked to lead you?

    We as political geeks should surely applaud an attempt, any attempt at changing the body politic, whoever tries it.
    No. Just no.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Well, in a comment here which I wouldn't have made if I thought it was influential, I thought Davis was pretty good and notably well-briefed in his Today interview. It'd be odd to get rid of the one Minister in the negotiations who seems to feel he knows what he's doing.

    Yes, quite. Much to my surprise, DD seems to be doing rather a good job. It's an incredibly complicated task, and the PM would surely not want to add to the risks by changing minister half-way through; it would take a long time for anyone else to master the brief.

    Of course, if something sufficiently damaging came out, that would be a different matter, but Chapman's Twitter diarrhea looks frankly deranged.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    isam said:
    I think that is (On the face of it) particularly damning for a Labour mayor.
    What is overall residential construction like in London though ?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Well, in a comment here which I wouldn't have made if I thought it was influential, I thought Davis was pretty good and notably well-briefed in his Today interview.

    Now, why do we think the anti-democrats are talking up getting rid of him?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,005
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    I think that is (On the face of it) particularly damning for a Labour mayor.
    What is overall residential construction like in London though ?
    Through no fault of his own it is possible he will oversee a reduction in social housing if unsafe Tower Blocks are demolished/evacuated
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    One in five unemployed people in the UK are migrants, official figures have revealed for the first time.

    The figures show that 317,000 migrants are unemployed, including 98,000 who were born in the EU and 219,000 born outside the EU.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/16/one-five-unemployed-people-uk-migrantsofficial-figures-reveal/amp/

    Blimmin heck imagine the inflationary pressures that will arise should they fuck off back home. Or be thrown out. Or not be replaced when they have had their fun living in the UK.
    I think wage inflation is not much affected by high employment levels in the globalised world, and not just in the UK. The jobs will either disappear to automation or be exported.
    A self-making flat white extra hot?
    There are already machines that do that sort of thing. The bar I was in last night had one - dial in your coffee choice and out pops your coffee. It even has a hopper for the coffee beans which it grinds as needed for each cup.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    One in five unemployed people in the UK are migrants, official figures have revealed for the first time.

    The figures show that 317,000 migrants are unemployed, including 98,000 who were born in the EU and 219,000 born outside the EU.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/16/one-five-unemployed-people-uk-migrantsofficial-figures-reveal/amp/

    Blimmin heck imagine the inflationary pressures that will arise should they fuck off back home. Or be thrown out. Or not be replaced when they have had their fun living in the UK.
    I think wage inflation is not much affected by high employment levels in the globalised world, and not just in the UK. The jobs will either disappear to automation or be exported.
    A self-making flat white extra hot?
    You jest, but the historical link between high employment and wage inflation is at best much weaker than previously, and perhaps history.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    One in five unemployed people in the UK are migrants, official figures have revealed for the first time.

    The figures show that 317,000 migrants are unemployed, including 98,000 who were born in the EU and 219,000 born outside the EU.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/16/one-five-unemployed-people-uk-migrantsofficial-figures-reveal/amp/

    Oh dear - now that doesn't fit the script. We were told they were propping up the NHS not the dole queues.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Take back control !!!!

    @DExUKgov: Today we unveil our radical plan for Ireland - the sincere hope that not much will change and that our EU partners will control our border.

    Oh, wait...
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    chrisoxonchrisoxon Posts: 204
    Scott_P said:

    Take back control !!!!

    @DExUKgov: Today we unveil our radical plan for Ireland - the sincere hope that not much will change and that our EU partners will control our border.

    Oh, wait...

    That's a parody account... you need to look at @DExEUgov
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited August 2017
    More good news. Our major economic partner is booming:

    https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/897750816613904384
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    chrisoxon said:

    That's a parody account... you need to look at @DExEUgov

    :smile:
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    That's a pretty lame response to what is clearly a promising UK proposal.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited August 2017
    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
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    felix said:

    One in five unemployed people in the UK are migrants, official figures have revealed for the first time.

    The figures show that 317,000 migrants are unemployed, including 98,000 who were born in the EU and 219,000 born outside the EU.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/16/one-five-unemployed-people-uk-migrantsofficial-figures-reveal/amp/

    Oh dear - now that doesn't fit the script. We were told they were propping up the NHS not the dole queues.

    Put another way, unemployment is far higher among people over whom we have full immigration control.

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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    More good news. Our major economic partner is booming:

    https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/897750816613904384

    Sure is... now if only they could get their unemployment levels down to UK levels.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    One in five unemployed people in the UK are migrants, official figures have revealed for the first time.

    The figures show that 317,000 migrants are unemployed, including 98,000 who were born in the EU and 219,000 born outside the EU.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/16/one-five-unemployed-people-uk-migrantsofficial-figures-reveal/amp/

    Blimmin heck imagine the inflationary pressures that will arise should they fuck off back home. Or be thrown out. Or not be replaced when they have had their fun living in the UK.
    I think wage inflation is not much affected by high employment levels in the globalised world, and not just in the UK. The jobs will either disappear to automation or be exported.
    A self-making flat white extra hot?
    You jest, but the historical link between high employment and wage inflation is at best much weaker than previously, and perhaps history.
    I appreciate that. It comes down, however, to NAIRU (as famously imprecise as the Laffer curve), and what Mr Greenspan termed, the pool of available workers.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see yer man Murdo Fraser is being a tool on twitter again.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    I think that is (On the face of it) particularly damning for a Labour mayor.
    What is overall residential construction like in London though ?
    Through no fault of his own it is possible he will oversee a reduction in social housing if unsafe Tower Blocks are demolished/evacuated
    Is he incorrect to say this is all just a hangover from Boris' time as mayor?

    The standard says:

    "Under Mr Johnson, the Greater London Authority began work on 336 social rent homes in 2015/16 and 1,067 in 2014/15. The highest point for construction of social housing was in 2009/10 where work started on 10,633 homes."

    2009/10 was presumably still a hangover of Ken.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited August 2017

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.
    We have agreed it in black and white, in multiple statements, and no doubt it will be reiterated again in the paper which is about to be published.

    The EU27's position is looking more and more bizarre by the day, and their position on Ireland - that there must be no border controls, yet the UK must be considered a third-party country and therefore the EU (not the UK) will insist on border controls - is the most bizarre of all.
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    chrisoxonchrisoxon Posts: 204

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    Surely you maintain the CTA via use of technical solutions?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.
    We have agreed it in black and white, in multiple statements, and no doubt it will be reiterated again in the paper which is about to be published.

    The EU27's position is looking more bizarre by the day.
    I'm afraid to say you are morphing into a poor copy of Adrian Harper with your comedic hagiographies about the work of the Brexit department.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited August 2017
    Birmingham bin strike over, and it sounds like the union has caved:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-40948937

    Unite [...] agreed in principle to recommend their members accept work pattern changes, including considering a five-day working week instead of the current four days
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820


    I'm afraid to say you are morphing into a poor copy of Adrian Harper with your comedic hagiographies about the work of the Brexit department.

    Poppycock, The champion hagiographer here is yourself, with your view that the EU is perfect in every way, their negotiating team brilliant, and their position papers faultless.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,798
    edited August 2017

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    Because Ireland is in a freedom of movement area with the EU while the UK plans to stop being in it. If the UK and Ireland are both in the FoM (as now) or both out as they were prior to 1973, there is no problem with the Common Travel Area.

    Addendum. The UK has come close to scrapping the CTA on a couple of occasions although it's not on the agenda now
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    FF43 said:

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    Because Ireland is in a freedom of movement area with the EU while the UK plans to stop being in it. If the UK and Ireland are both in the FoM (as now) or both out as they were prior to 1973, there is no problem with the Common Travel Area.
    There's no inconsistency here, which is obvious when you realise that "freedom of movement" is a misnomer.
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    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

    As others have noted, if we left in name only, but BoZo toured the country with "We have left" on the side of a bus the leavers would cheer and we could all move on...
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    FF43 said:

    Because Ireland is in a freedom of movement area with the EU while the UK plans to stop being in it. If the UK and Ireland are both in the FoM (as now) or both out as they were prior to 1973, there is no problem with the Common Travel Area.

    What's the problem? There seems to be no problem at all that I can see.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,028
    The important question is are any being built now - in the next 12 months. Assuming there is a ramping up phase as land is bought and contractors recruited its understandable if nothing was finished in the first 12 months. If nothing is built in the next 12 months than its a very different story....
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    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.
    We have agreed it in black and white, in multiple statements, and no doubt it will be reiterated again in the paper which is about to be published.

    The EU27's position is looking more bizarre by the day.
    I'm afraid to say you are morphing into a poor copy of Adrian Harper with your comedic hagiographies about the work of the Brexit department.

    If we are to leave the EU without an agreement and all the economic harm that will entail over a sustained period of time, then the only hope of political survival the Tories have is to be able to blame it all on the EU.

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    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.
    I have been doing other things recently and studiously avoiding the news as each suggestion being made is being received in the UK and the EU from a position of remain or leave. It is as if those supporting remain are in denial that it is going to happen and the constant obstruction to any sensible compromise will just result in a hard Brexit, which if the EU are seen as intractable will be supported by up to 70% no matter what the damage is to the UK and the EU.

    It is a very sad state of affairs when an organisation refuses to allow it's members to leave.

    I did hear an observation recently that European Business are getting ready to take on the EU as they are extremely worried about the consequences of playing politics with economics.

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    FF43 said:

    Because Ireland is in a freedom of movement area with the EU while the UK plans to stop being in it. If the UK and Ireland are both in the FoM (as now) or both out as they were prior to 1973, there is no problem with the Common Travel Area.

    What's the problem? There seems to be no problem at all that I can see.

    If everything else stays the same, there is no problem. But what happens if Ireland joins Schengen?

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.
    We have agreed it in black and white, in multiple statements, and no doubt it will be reiterated again in the paper which is about to be published.

    The EU27's position is looking more bizarre by the day.
    I'm afraid to say you are morphing into a poor copy of Adrian Harper with your comedic hagiographies about the work of the Brexit department.

    If we are to leave the EU without an agreement and all the economic harm that will entail over a sustained period of time, then the only hope of political survival the Tories have is to be able to blame it all on the EU.

    Which they will of course do. As would any government.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

    With catastrophically inept negotiators on both sides of the table, it doesn't particularly look touch and go to me.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    If everything else stays the same, there is no problem. But what happens if Ireland joins Schengen?

    Then there would be a problem. But that would have been equally true if we'd remained in the EU. That's why Ireland didn't and won't join Schengen.
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    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

    With catastrophically inept negotiators on both sides of the table, it doesn't particularly look touch and go to me.
    I think popular opinion will very soon become angered by the EU and the wish to leave, no matter the consequences, will increase dramatically
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    If everything else stays the same, there is no problem. But what happens if Ireland joins Schengen?

    Then there would be a problem. But that would have been equally true if we'd remained in the EU. That's why Ireland didn't and won't join Schengen.

    Of course Ireland would not join Schengen while the UK is part of the EU. But when we leave different imperatives may begin to apply.

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    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

    With catastrophically inept negotiators on both sides of the table, it doesn't particularly look touch and go to me.
    I think popular opinion will very soon become angered by the EU and the wish to leave, no matter the consequences, will increase dramatically

    And then what happens?

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited August 2017
    It's very amusing that the government is being simultaneously attacked (sometimes by the same people) for proposing too much and too little control of the Irish border, especially since the proposal is that as little as possible changes.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

    With catastrophically inept negotiators on both sides of the table, it doesn't particularly look touch and go to me.
    I think popular opinion will very soon become angered by the EU and the wish to leave, no matter the consequences, will increase dramatically
    That's very possible. The downward spiral that Brexit has induced will take another twist downwards.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

    With catastrophically inept negotiators on both sides of the table, it doesn't particularly look touch and go to me.
    I think popular opinion will very soon become angered by the EU and the wish to leave, no matter the consequences, will increase dramatically

    And then what happens?

    Nose is cut off to spite face?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    felix said:

    One in five unemployed people in the UK are migrants, official figures have revealed for the first time.

    The figures show that 317,000 migrants are unemployed, including 98,000 who were born in the EU and 219,000 born outside the EU.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/16/one-five-unemployed-people-uk-migrantsofficial-figures-reveal/amp/

    Oh dear - now that doesn't fit the script. We were told they were propping up the NHS not the dole queues.

    Put another way, unemployment is far higher among people over whom we have full immigration control.

    Not sure why you'd want to do that. It certainly exposes a problem with free movement as well as a need to deal with those from outside the EU. the fact that 20% of our total unemployment is down to immigrants is pretty shocking given what we keep being told about how they are more hard-working than UK nationals.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

    With catastrophically inept negotiators on both sides of the table, it doesn't particularly look touch and go to me.
    I think popular opinion will very soon become angered by the EU and the wish to leave, no matter the consequences, will increase dramatically

    And then what happens?

    Then we Leave...
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    TOPPING said:

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.
    We have agreed it in black and white, in multiple statements, and no doubt it will be reiterated again in the paper which is about to be published.

    The EU27's position is looking more bizarre by the day.
    I'm afraid to say you are morphing into a poor copy of Adrian Harper with your comedic hagiographies about the work of the Brexit department.

    If we are to leave the EU without an agreement and all the economic harm that will entail over a sustained period of time, then the only hope of political survival the Tories have is to be able to blame it all on the EU.

    Which they will of course do. As would any government.

    Of course. And it may work for a few months. But it's a tactic, not a strategy. As we have seen, people will not accept sustained declines in living standards and ever-greater cuts in public services - both are inevitable if we fall off the cliff.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Of course Ireland would not join Schengen while the UK is part of the EU. But when we leave different imperatives may begin to apply.

    That's up to them. If they prefer Schengen to the Common Travel Area, that would be their choice; the two are, as you imply, incompatible. However, I can't conceive of any reason why they would want to change: unlike countries with land borders on the continent, Schengen would buy them nothing very much, whereas the CTA is rather important to them and to NI.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    GIN1138 said:
    PRWeek:

    Bell Pottinger has again found itself the subject of national media attention as partner James Chapman continued to lash out at Brexit, his former boss David Davis, the media and more in an extraordinary Twitter frenzy.

    It will be an unwanted distraction for the embattled agency, which faces questions over its very future ahead of a hearing with the PRCA on Friday over its activities with a controversial South African client.



    http://www.prweek.com/article/1442130/thedemocrats-extraordinary-rant-bell-pottinger-partner-james-chapman-grabs-headlines#UTayrlcz4azVIumH.99
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I do think that the country needs more than a part-time BrexSec
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    felix said:

    More good news. Our major economic partner is booming:

    https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/897750816613904384

    Sure is... now if only they could get their unemployment levels down to UK levels.
    With their sound fundamentals, that should be on the cards for the next couple of years. Sound money and sound finances are the basis of a strong and stable economy. By the time we reapply in a decade, the EZ will look good :)
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    Of course Ireland would not join Schengen while the UK is part of the EU. But when we leave different imperatives may begin to apply.

    That's up to them. If they prefer Schengen to the Common Travel Area, that would be their choice; the two are, as you imply, incompatible. However, I can't conceive of any reason why they would want to change: unlike countries with land borders on the continent, Schengen would buy them nothing very much, whereas the CTA is rather important to them and to NI.

    At the moment.

    But whichever way you look at it, the simple fact is that it is now explicit government policy for the Irish Republic to be in charge of enforcing UK immigration policy. Our plan is to let the Irish decide who can and cannot enter the UK.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Scott_P said:
    This would have been the case more than likely if we'd never joined the EEC in the first place. Not sure I see the issue with this..
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Scott_P said:
    I can exclusively reveal that the Telegraph has unearthed only part of this scandal. It's worse than that: European Union citizens will be free to cross into UK from France as well. And indeed to fly in from anywhere in the world.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/897772425584267268

    https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/897778380787023872

    Urgent Update; The Tory Party brewery piss-up is cancelled. Nobody read the paperwork...
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    felix said:

    felix said:

    One in five unemployed people in the UK are migrants, official figures have revealed for the first time.

    The figures show that 317,000 migrants are unemployed, including 98,000 who were born in the EU and 219,000 born outside the EU.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/16/one-five-unemployed-people-uk-migrantsofficial-figures-reveal/amp/

    Oh dear - now that doesn't fit the script. We were told they were propping up the NHS not the dole queues.

    Put another way, unemployment is far higher among people over whom we have full immigration control.

    Not sure why you'd want to do that. It certainly exposes a problem with free movement as well as a need to deal with those from outside the EU. the fact that 20% of our total unemployment is down to immigrants is pretty shocking given what we keep being told about how they are more hard-working than UK nationals.

    You can be hardworking and unemployed.

  • Options

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

    With catastrophically inept negotiators on both sides of the table, it doesn't particularly look touch and go to me.
    I think popular opinion will very soon become angered by the EU and the wish to leave, no matter the consequences, will increase dramatically

    And then what happens?

    Chaos for all including the EU
  • Options

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

    With catastrophically inept negotiators on both sides of the table, it doesn't particularly look touch and go to me.
    I think popular opinion will very soon become angered by the EU and the wish to leave, no matter the consequences, will increase dramatically

    And then what happens?

    Then we Leave...

    Yep - and then what?

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Bongkers.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    I don't see why people are upset about Big Ben being quiet if it's for repair/restoration work.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    At the moment.

    But whichever way you look at it, the simple fact is that it is now explicit government policy for the Irish Republic to be in charge of enforcing UK immigration policy. Our plan is to let the Irish decide who can and cannot enter the UK.

    Eh? Inasmuch as there's any truth in that, it's identical to the current position.

    There are plenty of extremely difficult issues in Brexit: there really isn't a need to go looking for, or inventing, fictional ones, of which this is a prime example.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    I don't see why people are upset about Big Ben being quiet if it's for repair/restoration work.

    But what will happen to my favourite twitter feed?

    BONG BONG BONG BONG BONG BONG BONG BONG BONG BONG BONG BONG

    — Big Ben (@big_ben_clock) August 16, 2017
  • Options

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

    With catastrophically inept negotiators on both sides of the table, it doesn't particularly look touch and go to me.
    I think popular opinion will very soon become angered by the EU and the wish to leave, no matter the consequences, will increase dramatically

    And then what happens?

    Chaos for all including the EU

    Some for them, a shed load for us. Electorally, that is not sustainable for the Tories. It may not even be attainable in practice, though, as it's not certain the government could get a cliff/edge departure through the Commons.

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited August 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    This would have been the case more than likely if we'd never joined the EEC in the first place. Not sure I see the issue with this..
    People are still getting confused between "Freedom of Movement" and right of entry without a visa. Journalists who should know better in most cases.

    FoM has a specific meaning of entitlement to an NI number and state benefits as if they were British, we were never going to require visas for EU citizens who wish to visit on business or on holiday.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Of course Ireland would not join Schengen while the UK is part of the EU. But when we leave different imperatives may begin to apply.

    That's up to them. If they prefer Schengen to the Common Travel Area, that would be their choice; the two are, as you imply, incompatible. However, I can't conceive of any reason why they would want to change: unlike countries with land borders on the continent, Schengen would buy them nothing very much, whereas the CTA is rather important to them and to NI.

    At the moment.

    But whichever way you look at it, the simple fact is that it is now explicit government policy for the Irish Republic to be in charge of enforcing UK immigration policy. Our plan is to let the Irish decide who can and cannot enter the UK.

    That's no different in theory to any time since the 1920's. However, we all know there have been in the past for sure, and probably still now I guess, de facto checks on travel between NI and GB. You can't get on a ferry (I assume) or certainly a plane without photo ID, so in practical terms anyone wanting to enter the UK illegally from an EU state can in practice get to NI where legal work would not be allowed automatically (again we assume post 2019 at some point), and in practical terms (if we wish to enforce it de facto) can't get to GB by conventional means anyhow.
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    At the moment.

    But whichever way you look at it, the simple fact is that it is now explicit government policy for the Irish Republic to be in charge of enforcing UK immigration policy. Our plan is to let the Irish decide who can and cannot enter the UK.

    Eh? Inasmuch as there's any truth in that, it's identical to the current position.

    There are plenty of extremely difficult issues in Brexit: there really isn't a need to go looking for, or inventing, fictional ones, of which this is a prime example.

    Yep - identical to now. Think about that. We will not control our border, as was promised, the Republic of Ireland will.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    What a bizarre thing to say. There is literally no one on this earth suggesting that the Common Travel Area arrangement needs to be changed at all, so why is there a need for discussions about how it should be 'protected'? It pre-dates the EU by many decades anyway.

    The EU should focus on the real point, which is blindingly obvious: the Irish border issue is inseparable from the UK/EU trade deal and customs deal.
    If this is self-evident, there should be no problem in agreeing it in black and white and then we can move swiftly on to discussing trade, including technical solutions if necessary.

    It's becoming increasingly clear that there are only two options:

    1. We will leave the EU in name only.

    2. We will leave with no agreement.

    It's touch and go which one it will be.

    There may be a transition period for a year or two but given most Tory voters voted Leave and want to leave the single market and end free movement the Tory membership will almost certainly ensure the next Tory PM will be a Leaver (probably Boris or Mogg) who will ensure we fully leave by the end of their term and given Corbyn largely takes the same view to keep working class Labour Leavers on board a Corbyn premiership would be little different. Unless and until we get a moderate Labour PM or a hung parliament with the LDs holding the balance of power we will not return to the EEA after Brexit
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited August 2017

    I don't see why people are upset about Big Ben being quiet if it's for repair/restoration work.

    Quite. Surely we can do a digital "bong" through a PA system for few years.
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    Scott_P said:
    I can exclusively reveal that the Telegraph has unearthed only part of this scandal. It's worse than that: European Union citizens will be free to cross into UK from France as well. And indeed to fly in from anywhere in the world.

    Not without passport checks. Anyone entering the UK via France can be turned back at the UK border. Not so with Ireland.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Yep - identical to now. Think about that. We will not control our border, as was promised, the Republic of Ireland will.


    Take Back Control
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited August 2017
    What we often ignore about the common travel area is that UK arrivals at all airports in the Republic of Ireland are subject to passport checks even now - as they aren't segregated. This even applies at small airports like Kerry where the only daily flights are to London or Dublin.

    In Dublin at the new Aer Lingus terminal they regularly join the same passport queues as US arrivals. Yet UK airports treat Irish originating fights as domestic arrivals with no passport checks. Border controls effectively already exist - one way at airports.



  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    At the moment.

    But whichever way you look at it, the simple fact is that it is now explicit government policy for the Irish Republic to be in charge of enforcing UK immigration policy. Our plan is to let the Irish decide who can and cannot enter the UK.

    Eh? Inasmuch as there's any truth in that, it's identical to the current position.

    There are plenty of extremely difficult issues in Brexit: there really isn't a need to go looking for, or inventing, fictional ones, of which this is a prime example.

    Yep - identical to now. Think about that. We will not control our border, as was promised, the Republic of Ireland will.

    Identical to now is suddenly a bad thing?

    So is the current Remoaner position:

    We're all doomed because everything will change
    or
    We're all doomed because nothing will change
    or
    Both at the same time
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited August 2017

    I don't see why people are upset about Big Ben being quiet if it's for repair/restoration work.

    It's because it's been running continuously for 160 years, with only a few days for repairs since WWI
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Ben#Malfunctions.2C_breakdowns.2C_and_other_interruptions_in_operation

    I do think it's better to just get on with the whole Palace restoration though, it's not going to get cheaper or faster if they try and interrupt it or keep the building occupied - or bells ringing.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited August 2017

    Scott_P said:
    I can exclusively reveal that the Telegraph has unearthed only part of this scandal. It's worse than that: European Union citizens will be free to cross into UK from France as well. And indeed to fly in from anywhere in the world.

    Not without passport checks. Anyone entering the UK via France can be turned back at the UK border. Not so with Ireland.

    Sure. But they need a passport to get into Ireland. Just like a Cambodian or a Nigerian. Obviously EU citizens won't need a visa anyway, but in any case we already have in place a reciprocal arrangement with Ireland to recognise each other's visas.

    There really is no problem here at all.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    welshowl said:

    I don't see why people are upset about Big Ben being quiet if it's for repair/restoration work.

    Quite, . Surely we can do a digital "bong" through a PA system for few years.
    @big_ben_clock does that already on the hour every hour on The Twitter

    Scott could retweet it for us. One Scott'n'Paste per hour would be a blessed reduction.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GeoffM said:

    Scott could retweet it for us.

    I could retweet it, but you wouldn't see it
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The UK approach seems to be to be putting any emphasis on future change onto the EU.

    A hard Irish border ? We won't put it up.

    Tariffs on EU goods arriving in the U.K. ? As before and we will pass them on - but UK tariffs could be less..

    Banking on lack of inertia for change winning through.

    If a post Brexit world is different the govt looks to be putting the ball into the EUs court - or perhaps saying you can cut your own throats with your own knife if you wish.

    The EU doesn't seem to have a response yet other than suggesting it will race for the knife.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    The UK approach seems to be to be putting any emphasis on future change onto the EU.


    Take Back Control
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    Some perspective:

    One area where extensive cooperation is evident – but which does not necessitate harmonised systems – concerns the list of states whose nationals require a visa to enter. Currently, 103 states are subject to visa requirements in both the UK and Ireland; there are six states subject to visa requirements in the UK only; and a separate seven states are subject to visa requirements in Ireland only.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/637748/Future_customs_arrangements_-_a_future_partnership_paper.pdf
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    Scott_P said:
    I can exclusively reveal that the Telegraph has unearthed only part of this scandal. It's worse than that: European Union citizens will be free to cross into UK from France as well. And indeed to fly in from anywhere in the world.

    Not without passport checks. Anyone entering the UK via France can be turned back at the UK border. Not so with Ireland.

    Sure. But they need a passport to get into Ireland. Just like a Cambodian or a Nigerian. Obviously EU citizens won't need a visa anyway, but in any case we already have in place a reciprocal arrangement with Ireland to recognise each other's visas.

    There really is no problem here at all.

    Not for you or me, perhaps. But we were told that leaving the EU means taking back control of the UK border. The government has now said it doesn't want to.

    We were also told that leaving the EU would mean less red tape and lower costs for business. Yesterday, the government told us that the opposite would, in fact, be true.

    A pattern is emerging.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited August 2017

    Scott_P said:
    I can exclusively reveal that the Telegraph has unearthed only part of this scandal. It's worse than that: European Union citizens will be free to cross into UK from France as well. And indeed to fly in from anywhere in the world.

    Not without passport checks. Anyone entering the UK via France can be turned back at the UK border. Not so with Ireland.

    Sure. But they need a passport to get into Ireland. Just like a Cambodian or a Nigerian. Obviously EU citizens won't need a visa anyway, but in any case we already have in place a reciprocal arrangement with Ireland to recognise each other's visas.

    There really is no problem here at all.
    Quite.

    If I'm an EU citizen and I fancy doing a bit of cash in hand work in London in 2025 (assuming all is done by then!) whilst awaiting something else to turn up (illegally), why am I going to think "I know I'll be crafty, fly to Dublin, where they'll let me in no questions at all, catch the bus to Belfast, and hop on a flight to Stansted, where at that point I'll have to show suitable photo ID and risk the airline (who will be told to look out for just this) refusing me". What then? Bit of cash in hand dishwashing in Ballymena? Well the latter's possible, but it's not going to keep me awake at night.

    Seems a sensible compromise.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    Border in the Irish sea?

    In 2015, external sales of goods from Northern Ireland to Great Britain stood at £10.7 billion......Trade between Northern Ireland and Ireland is also very important. Over the same period, Ireland was Northern Ireland’s biggest external trading partner, exporting £2.7 billion of goods to Ireland
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited August 2017
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    The UK approach seems to be to be putting any emphasis on future change onto the EU.


    Take Back Control
    Oh dear - it doesn't seem to be going as Scott hoped - that we would be pleading and begging to Brussels for scraps.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited August 2017
    TGOHF said:

    Oh dear - it doesn't seem to be going as Scott hoped - that we would be pleading and begging to Brussels for scraps.

    We have offered Brussels the entire enchilada...

    EDIT: Is that the "Take Back Control" you were hoping for?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Not for you or me, perhaps. But we were told that leaving the EU means taking back control of the UK border. The government has now said it doesn't want to.

    We were also told that leaving the EU would mean less red tape and lower costs for business. Yesterday, the government told us that the opposite would, in fact, be true.

    A pattern is emerging.

    Sure, but that was a discussion for before the referendum. Now we need to move on to making the best of what the British voters, in their infinite wisdom, chose. DD's proposals on this seem very sensible. What's more, all the many critics go completely silent when asked what they would do differently - and that includes the EU27, whose position remains incoherent.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oh dear - it doesn't seem to be going as Scott hoped - that we would be pleading and begging to Brussels for scraps.

    We have offered Brussels the entire enchilada...
    Apart from the £££, the ECJ, the EU parly, EU laws,the Commission rules, the right to make non EU trade deals... etc etc etc

    Remind me never to eat an enchilada you cooked.
This discussion has been closed.