politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ruth Davidson’s Scottish successes saved TMay’s bacon on June
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ruth Davidson’s Scottish successes saved TMay’s bacon on June 8th but that comes at a price
The chart is very simple but illustrates clearly why Scottish Conservative leader feels able to to put pressure on TMay over the PM’s hardline immigration rhetoric.
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What is a lot less clear is whether she can speak for the 13 Scottish Tory MPs. I don't think that they are a coherent group in the way Mike's piece indicates. They may become so if Ruth proceeds to have a CDU/CSU type Scottish conservative and UNIONIST party as was discussed in the aftermath of the election but right now they take the whip in Westminster, not from Ruth.
Ruth also sees the economic consequences of the catastrophic state of the Scottish education system. Since we are incapable of educating sufficient numbers of our own to be employable we need to bring in employable people who were fortunate enough to be educated somewhere else.
I can see a case for giving Holyrood more control over work permits and quotas in Scotland.
Who would then speak for England? It'd highlight, again, that Scotland gets devolution and gets nothing but wibbling from the political/media class about the foolish notion of regional assemblies.
https://youtu.be/2OlKFhEEWUM
'fantastic', 'great'.
Yesterday some were criticising Thatcher's "failure" to pre-empt the Argentinians' aggression towards the Falklands by sending a warship to the region (as Wilson had done in 1977), and now there seems to be criticism ofTrump for doing just that.
I can't see why a solution can't be devised that satisfies both.
Edited extra bit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40873801
North Korea is not going to invade South Korea or China and is not likely to. It wants (probably) continued isolation. The situations are not remotely comparable. A better question might be what does China want?
Please correct me if my impression is demonstrably wrong, but this has looked to me for a while like the classic lie that has taken root before the truth was even 10% known.
The divide is still the same - Leave v Remain (not Soft v Hard Brexit, but Brexit v no Brexit at all), and it will tear the Tory Part apart again before 2022 I suspect. It's really starting to feel like the referendum was only round one.
Remain's new tactic is to tie us into the EEA permanently, rather than as a way to leave and finally exit altogether - then return to the EU when they have the next move to tiered membership. The plan will be to tear up the EEA, move the SM totally into the EU, with two kinds of membership as projected in the Fundamental Law document from Bertelsmann/Spinelli group- and of course the notice period will be shorter so the choice will be made by the cliff edge that would follow.
I was a supporter of the EFTA/EEA interim solution in the campaign, but now I'm really beginning to drift away from that as it would appear that the end game will never appear (a proper EFTA/EU FTA that would solve Swiss problem and retain many of the most sensible parts of the single market itself).
IMO moving parliament and hopefully a bunch of govt jobs out of London (perhaps temporarily while we renovate, perhaps permanently) is the sort of radical solution that should be considered.
She will achieve little or nothing and peak Tory/ Davidson in Scotland is already in the past.
Davidson sees a skills shortage and a demand for labour in Scotland and sees a solution just as Merkel does and Blair did.
The problem is or are the other aspects of unplanned un co-ordinated economic migration. We have, in effect, created new slums in parts of London with 12-14 people living in 3-bedroom houses or outbuildings. Existing infrastructure (transport, healthcare, education) cannot cope with the sudden influx of people and creak badly. Regrettably, not all those who arrive are here to work and make a new life for themselves and their families - an open door beings criminality or those who prefer to live off others.
The cultural and social impacts of economic migration have had political impacts too and will continue to do so. Those who voted LEAVE in the expectation leaving the EU will close the door on uncontrolled economic migration might be disappointed to say the least if leaving the EU doesn't close that door after all.
There is an argument and a very strong one for a controlled managed immigration process. Our economy will always need specialist and skilled people in key areas and occasionally more capacity in other areas. There's also the argument that in providing training and study opportunities for those willing to learn and then exporting that knowledge back to their own countries we all benefit and I get that. The process should be transparent and equitable for all non-UK citizens.
We have to find a solution the whole country can buy into that bridges the divide, or this political and constitutional sectarianism will never end.
I'll believe that when I see it. We have more prosecutions for bacon hate crime than FGM.
The risk is that they shell/grab temporarily gain the upper hand in South Korea before the US and its allies can muster forces to totally defeat them, but after enough impact to force a brokered ceasefire.
I just don't think democracies are willing to tolerate mass casualties anymore.
We need an English Parliament, otherwise fools like Khan and Clegg with no care for England will see this land divided forever. Sleepwalking into ill-considered devolution with long term consequences should be something everyone politically interested should be very well aware of.
In the US, there are visas (such as the E2 visa that I am on) that allow me to work only for a specific company. There is no reason why you cannot also have visas that only allow you to work in a certain area. (You already have this in Canada.) But this would all be for nothing if we do not enforce the law.
Unskilled immigrant workers might be needed for a coffee shop and car wash economy but I don't see the owners of the coffee shops and car washes providing the housing and public services their unskilled immigrant workers need.
Student comes to the UK = one immigrant
Student leaves UK = one emigrant
Not that students ** matter to people with concerns about immigration. What matters is the effect that immigrants have on pay rates, housing, public services and various cultural issues.
What I think of as the 'foreign languages in the supermarket' effect.
Anyone who thinks that by somehow manipulating the stats so that official immigration falls without doing something about the effects of actual immigration will remove immigration as a political issue is merely showing how little they understand the issue.
** Assuming the students are actually proper students and not 'students'.
Forty acres and a car / Forty square metres and a bike offered free to anyone who moves to Scotland / London.
Otherwise, anything that is done preemptively against NK, should be done with the knowledge of the Chinese.
Perhaps pertinent questions are: what do NK want, and what game are the playing? A unified Korea? World socialism?
In any case its not pensioners you say you want but young workers.
Make London and Scotland more desirable to them and they will migrate.
As London is the only region of the UK with negative internal migration its pretty clear that its not a desirable place to live for the average person.
London needs to address that issue - not only to be more attractive to potential migrants but also for the benefit of the people already living there.
While 99% of Chinese or Koreans return home the number staying on is much higher from the subcontinent, middle east and africa.
Students should remain in the numbers.
It is worth noting tthat without immigration there would be a contracting working age population. The population growth is of the elderly and of children. The working age population is projected to be broadly stable over next decades even on current migration.
Post Brexit Britain will look more like the demographics of Wales.
Surely every yokel who's ever visited London by car from the west is aware of the Polish War Memorial on the A40. They cannot all think it's a memorial commemorating our war against Poland. There have been Poles (ex airmen and women) living near Northolt for about 75 years.
My mother has been one to bang on about them immigrants, being a Daily Mail reader. We took her away to a spa hotel with us at Christmas and she banged loudly on about the staff being immigrants within their earshot. But even she has dialled it back a bit since going into hospital for a hip replacement in May, recovery after a stroke in June, and having live in home care for the last 6 weeks. She has noticed that about 50 to 100% of the people she now relies on are them immigrants.
Is the problem with the yokels simply that they read the Daily Mail and never go into hotels or hospitals?
On the other hand - if we increase our student numbers (which is what our universities are trying to do) that will make the statistics look a lot worse, even if the reality is that these students aren't going to stick around.
The point is students are normally here temporarily and are a massive boost to our universities and economy. In many cases they subsidise the university educations of British students. As and when they cease to be students (ie they get jobs after graduation) - then we should count them as immigrants.
So I'll make it a different way - if London is so enticing why is there negative migration between it and the rest of Britain ? Sort out the reasons for that and you will have flows to London from the rest of Britain.
And the proper comparison would be to compare the NorthEast and Wales with their equivalents in foreign countries not the foreign countries as a whole.
Anyway I have to do some work now so have a nice day.
I hope it deters our local fox, though, which a couple of weeks ago got into the house late at night and crept upstairs (or more likely was chased by the cat) into the bathroom where it proceeded to make the most almighty racket as it tried to escape while hurling shampoo bottles around with gay abandon.
Thank God for the beer festival later this week and my visit to the a safe and exotic part of the Mediterranean next week, from where I shall report - @SeanT style - on my adventures!
On topic, we clearly need immigrant politicians since our own are so plainly not up to the mark.
It would also be nice if when youngsters apply for jobs, even short-term ones, employers bothered to reply (a polite "no thanks" would be nice). All very well complaining about our young and why Eastern Europeans are more amenable but some emplyers don't even bother to give youngsters here a chance. This plea is entirely connected to the difficulties my son, who has had serious health issues making his CV rather less "vanilla" than some, has had in getting a hearing from possible employers. Not everyone has a well-formed out career plan from birth. Without actually trying a variety of jobs how do you know what you would like or be good at? Grrrr.....
It's so wet and miserable out there, that I went to the supermarket and bought the little 'un a winter coat.
Who turned off summer?
Even I am not mad enough to go walking in this rain!
Paris attack: Hunt for car driven at soldiers injuring six
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40873801
I hope young Mister Cyclefree enjoy better fortune in the near future.
I see this as a fairly healthy part of the lifecycle of people within a metropolis.
The argument about the economic impact of migration shouldn't be about GDP growth but about per capita GDP growth and about who benefits from that growth. Uncontrolled immigration helps the former (in the short term) but not the latter (especially in the longer term). A chronic problem in the UK over the past decade or so has been stagnant productivity and declining real wages, as we entrench our position as an economy that depends on an abundant external supply of people willing to work for very little thus avoiding the need for capital investment. The demand to continue uncontrolled EU migration is all about corporate employers wanting to continue with that model.
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105222726/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/internal-migration-by-local-authorities-in-england-and-wales/year-ending-june-2013/sty-2---focus-on-london-moves.html
There ia a substantial net inflow of Britons to London aged 20-30, and a net outflow of older people and children, presumably with their families. There is a similar pattern in other big cities.
She did, and was offered a job.
A small act of kindness by Lobb that set a woman on her course for life.
(There was an addendum to the story. Apparently after being offered the job, she was told women could not wear trousers. She turned up for her first day wearing not only trousers, but jeans. Nothing happened).
Edited extra bit: nice story, Mr. Jessop
Aren't you a Labour supporter?
The politicians seem happy to turn a blind eye to those coming here in false pretences as per usual.
I do, however, find it a bit rich that pampered pensioners in the back of beyond expect to dictate social policy to those who underwrite their lifestyle.
So in many ways this is all pointless as none of these people will be leading the Party in the end.
Ruth's fall back down to Earth during the leadership contest will be quite amusing though...
https://edinburghfestival.list.co.uk/festival/edinburgh-beltane-fire-festival/
https://www.edinburghguide.com/events/samhuinn
https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenHet20/status/895171644418928641
Similarly cutting the number of legitimate degree level courses would be a bad thing, but would be a positive as far as migration targets are concerned - while doing nothing to ease concerns about migration. A failure should not be considered a success.
Why not simultaneously take out the number of legitimate students who are studying from the figures while also raising requirements in order to eliminate fake courses/students? Say that universities can get uncapped numbers of legitimate students but the burden is on them to prove they are legitimate.
I'd go for a system whereby visas (by employment category) get auctioned by government to employers, with the funds raised being spent on training for the British workforce. A variation would be that a firm hiring say a plumber or nurse from abroad must also take on a British apprentice at the same time.
https://twitter.com/TotalPolitics/status/895212135164325888
The UK political scene is ripe for a new party of centrists [that said, I think it'd be seen either as right or left, the idea of being precisely middle-of-the-road is mealy-mouthed]. Labour's led by a far left fool, the Conservatives are becalmed in disarray, and UKIP has withered. Good potential for a new party.
http://www.listofcountriesoftheworld.com/
Interestingly it includes the Isle of Man and Jersey but not Scotland.
Just thought I would mention it.