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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How general election turnout has changed by age group – 1964-2

Commons Library Research briefing
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18-24 back to the Fatcha years. So higher youth turn out not a death sentence for Con.
Blair was the pits for youth turnout. Such is disillusion.
I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.
Hopefully they won't make that mistake again.
What was the big turn-off I wonder? If it was Blair why didn't they just vote Con or LD?
It would be nice to see a series normalised on birth year ranges, to see if there's a generation that is just turned off by politics. I guess the raw data doesn't exist in that form.
PM: Ken Clarke
Chancellor: Amber Rudd
Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/30/boris-johnson-vince-cable-trade-barbs-resignation-rumours
I agree that 1997 is rather a surprise. I don't think it can have been Blair personally turning off young voters. Perhaps it was all the effort New Labour put into presenting themselves as a serious party of government, with, conversely, Corbyn doing well in 2017 for the opposite reason?
Ain't happening though. Next you'll be predicting The Donald for POTUS
(?)
.... It still boggles the mind.
Mr. 86, a corner that will last for a thousand years.
Incidentally, the minor thingummyjig I was checking proved correct, so, if odds permit, it'll probably be an early tip.
Early tips recently have been quite good, in stark contrast to actual results. Speaking of which, I read that Magnussen got a penalty despite not hitting Hulkenberg, and Sainz didn't get one despite hitting Alonso.
That did not amuse.
Look at the numbers polling - Tories lost 5 million voters 92 to 97, Labour only gained 2 million of them.
Yes,
If a generation had been turned off, you would expect to see some effects moving up the age cohorts with each election.
Back of the envelope stuff but if the 18-24s had been put off voting for life in 1997, they would be 38 to 44 now - and definitely in the 35 - 44 cohort in both 2015 and 2017.
Is that dip/plateau due to that? Is it large enough?
I'll go dig them out
sorry.
The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.
Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?
I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40782299
Of course that was an era when there was rapidly increasing levels of home ownership and students were given money rather than suffer fees.
I pointed this out on the eve of the GE and after, but the media narrative was of course all about youngsters.
Slightly less amusing is that his wife divorced him over his Trump support.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_McGovern_presidential_campaign,_1972
Scaramucci
Would you do the fandango
Trump-erbolt and lightning
Very very frightening me
https://mobile.twitter.com/goldengateblond/status/891103556748558336
Spare us our lives from this monstrosity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaramouche
Its certainly a wild ride. Is it time to consider this?
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.html
More likely imo, parents of younger children were attacted by the thought that it might not cost them or their kids as much to go to uni if Corbyn got in. That, and many people feeling the effects of 7 years of no real wage growth. But in truth, who knows?
It was May with her incompetently thought through and presented dementia tax who was being revolutionary, if indeed it is revolutionary to suggest that those with the greatest savings and assets should contribute something to the cost of their care in old age. Corbyn's vote was fundamentally nostalgic. May was seeking change - on this at least. Though all those shouting for something to be done on social care a few months back have gone quiet now.
Note too that fewer over 65s voted in 2017 -a mistake they wont make next time.
Overall this chart is bad news for Corbyn.