politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How general election turnout has changed by age group – 1964-2

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How general election turnout has changed by age group – 1964-2017

Commons Library Research briefing

Read the full story here

Ishmael_Z

I

18-24 back to the Fatcha years. So higher youth turn out not a death sentence for Con.

tlg86

Second like democracy in Venezuela.

IanB2

Third!

Blair was the pits for youth turnout. Such is disillusion.

IanB2

Ishmael_Z said:

I

18-24 back to the Fatcha years. So higher youth turn out not a death sentence for Con.

The economy wasn't organised so heavily in older people's interests back then.

Jet

Phillip Hammond seems remarkably slurpy towards the Saudi dictatorship. How much longer will Theresa May sit on the Home office report that focuses on Saudi funding of the Daesh terror network in Britain?

I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

Richard_Nabavi

"Fewer oldies bothered to vote"

Hopefully they won't make that mistake again.

Benpointer

Richard_Nabavi said:

"Fewer oldies bothered to vote"

Hopefully they won't make that mistake again.

Probably not... but expect even more under 34s to vote now it's becoming on-trend!

Richard_Nabavi

Benpointer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

"Fewer oldies bothered to vote"

Hopefully they won't make that mistake again.

Probably not... but expect even more under 34s to vote now it's becoming on-trend!

Nah, voting will seem so 2017...

Benpointer

IanB2 said:

Third!

Blair was the pits for youth turnout. Such is disillusion.

I do find it surprising the way the young vote dropped in 1997 and 2001. I wouldn't have guessed that.

What was the big turn-off I wonder? If it was Blair why didn't they just vote Con or LD?

It would be nice to see a series normalised on birth year ranges, to see if there's a generation that is just turned off by politics. I guess the raw data doesn't exist in that form.

williamglenn

Jet said:

I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

PM: Ken Clarke
Chancellor: Amber Rudd
Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve

Luckyguy1983

williamglenn said:

Jet said:

I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

PM: Ken Clarke
Chancellor: Amber Rudd
Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve

To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.

Benpointer

OT - what do we make of this? Gossipy stirring from Uncle Vince or is there some fire behind the smoke?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/30/boris-johnson-vince-cable-trade-barbs-resignation-rumours

Richard_Nabavi

Benpointer said:

I do find it surprising the way the young vote dropped in 1997 and 2001. I wouldn't have guessed that.

2001 isn't surprising, it was the most boring election for yonks, and the result was not in doubt.

I agree that 1997 is rather a surprise. I don't think it can have been Blair personally turning off young voters. Perhaps it was all the effort New Labour put into presenting themselves as a serious party of government, with, conversely, Corbyn doing well in 2017 for the opposite reason?

Benpointer

williamglenn said:

Jet said:

I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

PM: Ken Clarke
Chancellor: Amber Rudd
Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve

Would have to be a National Government, so expect Chuka, Yvette and Vince to figure in the wider cabinet.

Ain't happening though. Next you'll be predicting The Donald for POTUS

Richard_Tyndall

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

Jet said:

I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

PM: Ken Clarke
Chancellor: Amber Rudd
Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve

To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.

More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Glenn, impossible. That quartet is so collectively wet they'd drown.

RobD

Benpointer said:

williamglenn said:

Jet said:

I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

PM: Ken Clarke
Chancellor: Amber Rudd
Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve

Would have to be a National Government, so expect Chuka, Yvette and Vince to figure in the wider cabinet.

Ain't happening though. Next you'll be predicting The Donald for POTUS

Long time lurker?

Benpointer

Richard_Nabavi said:

Benpointer said:

I do find it surprising the way the young vote dropped in 1997 and 2001. I wouldn't have guessed that.

2001 isn't surprising, it was the most boring election for yonks, and the result was not in doubt.

I agree that 1997 is rather a surprise. I don't think it can have been Blair personally turning off young voters. Perhaps it was all the effort New Labour put into presenting themselves as a serious party of government, with, conversely, Corbyn doing well in 2017 for the opposite reason?

Yes that could it for 1997. Of course 2001 was boring... Labour started with a lead of 15-20%. With that sort of lead the result has to be a forgone conclusion. Doesn't it Theresa?

Nigelb

Richard_Nabavi said:

"Fewer oldies bothered to vote"

Hopefully they won't make that mistake again.

"No, Mr. Bond. I expect you to die..."
(?)

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

.... It still boggles the mind.

Morris_Dancer

F1: some time off, but I'm just checking something about Spa (Belgian Grand Prix) and it's bloody weird running down the order and seeing some chaps with Nazi flags.

Casino_Royale

GE2017 really was one giant supergrade f*ck-up.

IanB2

Casino_Royale said:

GE2017 really was one giant supergrade f*ck-up.

Karma from the Referendum campaign.

tlg86

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: some time off, but I'm just checking something about Spa (Belgian Grand Prix) and it's bloody weird running down the order and seeing some chaps with Nazi flags.

One of those winning drivers - Rudolf Caracciola - has the Karussel corner at the Nurburgring named after him.

Jonathan

Casino_Royale said:

GE2017 really was one giant supergrade f*ck-up.

I think you understate the magnitude of the fuck up. This one is on a cosmic scale.

Casino_Royale

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

GE2017 really was one giant supergrade f*ck-up.

I think you understate the magnitude of the fuck up. This one is on a cosmic scale.

Intergalactic.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Royale, indeed.

Mr. 86, a corner that will last for a thousand years.

Incidentally, the minor thingummyjig I was checking proved correct, so, if odds permit, it'll probably be an early tip.

Early tips recently have been quite good, in stark contrast to actual results. Speaking of which, I read that Magnussen got a penalty despite not hitting Hulkenberg, and Sainz didn't get one despite hitting Alonso.

That did not amuse.

rcs1000

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

Jet said:

I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

PM: Ken Clarke
Chancellor: Amber Rudd
Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve

To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.

More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Who would you have in the Nurse Ratched role?

Richard_Tyndall

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

Jet said:

I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

PM: Ken Clarke
Chancellor: Amber Rudd
Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve

To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.

More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Who would you have in the Nurse Ratched role?

Since the Remainers wold be the inmates I would probably have Priti Patel as their nemesis.

Richard_Tyndall

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

Jet said:

I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

PM: Ken Clarke
Chancellor: Amber Rudd
Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve

To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.

More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Who would you have in the Nurse Ratched role?

By the way did you see my answer to your questions about rates of change last night?

Richard_Tyndall

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

.... It still boggles the mind.

I am not an expert on previous campaigns but it certainly does seem that way. Can anyone think of a worse run campaign?

BannedInParis

Benpointer said:

IanB2 said:

Third!

Blair was the pits for youth turnout. Such is disillusion.

I do find it surprising the way the young vote dropped in 1997 and 2001. I wouldn't have guessed that.

What was the big turn-off I wonder?

I'm a bit perplexed by this - I thought it has long been broadly accepted that Labour's electoral strategy in that period (as run by Alastair Campbell) was to not let the other side have even a smidgen of oxygen. Highly efficient, highly effective and highly negative.

Look at the numbers polling - Tories lost 5 million voters 92 to 97, Labour only gained 2 million of them.

BannedInParis

"It would be nice to see a series normalised on birth year ranges, to see if there's a generation that is just turned off by politics. I guess the raw data doesn't exist in that form."

Yes,
If a generation had been turned off, you would expect to see some effects moving up the age cohorts with each election.

Back of the envelope stuff but if the 18-24s had been put off voting for life in 1997, they would be 38 to 44 now - and definitely in the 35 - 44 cohort in both 2015 and 2017.

Is that dip/plateau due to that? Is it large enough?

IanB2

Richard_Tyndall said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

.... It still boggles the mind.

I am not an expert on previous campaigns but it certainly does seem that way. Can anyone think of a worse run campaign?

Hague's Tory campaign was pretty dire.

MJW

Ishmael_Z said:

I

18-24 back to the Fatcha years. So higher youth turn out not a death sentence for Con.

As was observed after the election, their big problem isn't the youth vote - which they've never really got. Apart from Jacob Rees-Mogg, who on Earth would vote Tory while at uni? Even Boris pretended to be in the SDP. Their huge problem is with 25-40 year olds as home ownership is dropping amongst that age group, if you're 30 wages have been stagnant under Tory led governments for most of your adult working life and to top it all off there's another load more pain on the way thanks to a decision you don't support. They've got Jeremy to thank for things not being far worse.

rcs1000

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

Jet said:

I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

PM: Ken Clarke
Chancellor: Amber Rudd
Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve

To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.

More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Who would you have in the Nurse Ratched role?

By the way did you see my answer to your questions about rates of change last night?

I did not. I suspect I was fast asleep

I'll go dig them out

Ishmael_Z

Richard_Tyndall said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

.... It still boggles the mind.

I am not an expert on previous campaigns but it certainly does seem that way. Can anyone think of a worse run campaign?

Eddie the Eagle's campaign for Olympic gold.

DecrepitJohnL

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

.... It still boggles the mind.

I am not an expert on previous campaigns but it certainly does seem that way. Can anyone think of a worse run campaign?

Hague's Tory campaign was pretty dire.

Hague's campaign was dire for two reasons. First, Hague led on saving the pound -- but Gordon Brown had already shot that fox. Second, it was said that reports from the ground on how badly this was going were filtered out by CCHQ before they reached the top team.

Toms

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

GE2017 really was one giant supergrade f*ck-up.

I think you understate the magnitude of the fuck up. This one is on a cosmic scale.

Intergalactic.

What's an inter gala(c) tic? A withdrawal symptom between fetes?
sorry.

PeterMannion

Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

williamglenn

Scaramucci is out.

Ishmael_Z

Scaramucci out as Trump media chief
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40782299

another_richard

MJW said:

Ishmael_Z said:

I

18-24 back to the Fatcha years. So higher youth turn out not a death sentence for Con.

As was observed after the election, their big problem isn't the youth vote - which they've never really got. Apart from Jacob Rees-Mogg, who on Earth would vote Tory while at uni? Even Boris pretended to be in the SDP. Their huge problem is with 25-40 year olds as home ownership is dropping amongst that age group, if you're 30 wages have been stagnant under Tory led governments for most of your adult working life and to top it all off there's another load more pain on the way thanks to a decision you don't support. They've got Jeremy to thank for things not being far worse.

I vaguely remember that the Conservatives did better among first time voters in 1987 than the electorate as a whole.

Of course that was an era when there was rapidly increasing levels of home ownership and students were given money rather than suffer fees.

Danny565

OK, even at his worst moments, I refuse to believe Corbyn's running of Labour was as chaotic as Trump's running of the White House....

FrancisUrquhart

PeterMannion said:

Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).

I pointed this out on the eve of the GE and after, but the media narrative was of course all about youngsters.

Toms

williamglenn said:

Scaramucci is out.

I'm undecided as to whether that's (relatively) good or bad for Trump with his supporters.

logical_song

Ishmael_Z said:

Scaramucci out as Trump media chief
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40782299

I hope he wasn't stabbed in the back.

logical_song

Toms said:

williamglenn said:

Scaramucci is out.

I'm undecided as to whether that's (relatively) good or bad for Trump with his supporters.

Trump can certainly pick them - must be his experience in running 'The Apprentice'.

Danny565

FrancisUrquhart said:

PeterMannion said:

Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).

Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.

SandyRentool

Scaramucci told to go and do a Fandango.

Nigelb

Ishmael_Z said:

Scaramucci out as Trump media chief
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40782299

The mildly amusing thing about this is that he apparently sold his company so he could take a job in the administration.

Slightly less amusing is that his wife divorced him over his Trump support.

another_richard

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

PeterMannion said:

Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).

Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.

That assumption was made before George Osborne robbed the young.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/1000cuts/status/891394926898028545

spire2

SandyRentool said:

Scaramucci told to go and do a Fandango.

easy come easy go

SandyRentool

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

williamglenn said:

Jet said:

I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

PM: Ken Clarke
Chancellor: Amber Rudd
Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve

To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.

More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Who would you have in the Nurse Ratched role?

Since the Remainers wold be the inmates I would probably have Priti Patel as their nemesis.

Priti Patel in a nurse's uniform....

Nigelb

Richard_Tyndall said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

.... It still boggles the mind.

I am not an expert on previous campaigns but it certainly does seem that way. Can anyone think of a worse run campaign?

Well, it's the US, but there is this one:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_McGovern_presidential_campaign,_1972

Danny565

another_richard said:

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

PeterMannion said:

Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).

Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.

That assumption was made before George Osborne robbed the young.

I wonder if the Manchester attack also played a part in it - parents suddenly thinking what if their kids were ever caught up in something like that, and how therefore there needed to be more police and a protected NHS to take care of them if it happened.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Royale, indeed.

Mr. 86, a corner that will last for a thousand years.

Incidentally, the minor thingummyjig I was checking proved correct, so, if odds permit, it'll probably be an early tip.

Early tips recently have been quite good, in stark contrast to actual results. Speaking of which, I read that Magnussen got a penalty despite not hitting Hulkenberg, and Sainz didn't get one despite hitting Alonso.

That did not amuse.

Whereas Magnussen's subsequent retort to Hulkenberg....

Danny565

spire2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Scaramucci told to go and do a Fandango.

easy come easy go

Don's just a poor boy, nobody loves him.

Sunil_Prasannan

Scaramucci
Scaramucci
Would you do the fandango
Trump-erbolt and lightning
Very very frightening me

The_Apocalypse

Has anyone seen anything like this Trump administration? This tweet (from a few months ago) sums it up:
https://mobile.twitter.com/goldengateblond/status/891103556748558336

JosiasJessop

Danny565 said:

spire2 said:

SandyRentool said:

Scaramucci told to go and do a Fandango.

easy come easy go

Don's just a poor boy, nobody loves him.

He's just a rich boy, from a rich family.
Spare us our lives from this monstrosity.

JosiasJessop

I didn't actually know this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaramouche

spire2

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.htm

Its certainly a wild ride. Is it time to consider this?

Nigelb

Toms said:

williamglenn said:

Scaramucci is out.

I'm undecided as to whether that's (relatively) good or bad for Trump with his supporters.

Depends whether it's the first step in Kelly actually taking charge of the White House (should Trump ever allow such a thing), or just a continuation of the rolling clusterf*ck that has been the administration to date.

JosiasJessop

spire2 said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.htm

Its certainly a wild ride. Is it time to consider this?

It appears the simulation is trying to protect itself, as that page is mysteriously unavailable ...

Ishmael_Z

spire2 said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.htm

Its certainly a wild ride. Is it time to consider this?

Working link

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.html

Benpointer

Danny565 said:

another_richard said:

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

PeterMannion said:

Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).

Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.

That assumption was made before George Osborne robbed the young.

I wonder if the Manchester attack also played a part in it - parents suddenly thinking what if their kids were ever caught up in something like that, and how therefore there needed to be more police and a protected NHS to take care of them if it happened.

A bit fanciful if you ask me. Most people appreciate that the chances of being caught up in a terroist attack are extremely small.

More likely imo, parents of younger children were attacted by the thought that it might not cost them or their kids as much to go to uni if Corbyn got in. That, and many people feeling the effects of 7 years of no real wage growth. But in truth, who knows?

Cyclefree

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

PeterMannion said:

Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).

Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.

On the contrary. The middle class parent vote for Labour was a small "c" conservative vote. It was a vote to preserve the inheritances of their children. It was a vote to reduce the cost of university. It was a vote for not contributing to your own old age or education, especially if you were well off.

It was May with her incompetently thought through and presented dementia tax who was being revolutionary, if indeed it is revolutionary to suggest that those with the greatest savings and assets should contribute something to the cost of their care in old age. Corbyn's vote was fundamentally nostalgic. May was seeking change - on this at least. Though all those shouting for something to be done on social care a few months back have gone quiet now.

DecrepitJohnL

Benpointer said:

Danny565 said:

another_richard said:

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

PeterMannion said:

Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).

Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.

That assumption was made before George Osborne robbed the young.

I wonder if the Manchester attack also played a part in it - parents suddenly thinking what if their kids were ever caught up in something like that, and how therefore there needed to be more police and a protected NHS to take care of them if it happened.

A bit fanciful if you ask me. Most people appreciate that the chances of being caught up in a terroist attack are extremely small.

More likely imo, parents of younger children were attacted by the thought that it might not cost them or their kids as much to go to uni if Corbyn got in. That, and many people feeling the effects of 7 years of no real wage growth. But in truth, who knows?

Parents of younger children will have had recent prolonged dealings with the NHS and may also be caught up in the shortage of school places. I doubt many would be looking forwards two decades at university fees.

nunuone

Danny565 said:

OK, even at his worst moments, I refuse to believe Corbyn's running of Labour was as chaotic as Trump's running of the White House....

But what about Corbyn running of 10 Downing Street......

Benpointer

DecrepitJohnL said:

Benpointer said:

Danny565 said:

another_richard said:

Danny565 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

PeterMannion said:

Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).

Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.

That assumption was made before George Osborne robbed the young.

I wonder if the Manchester attack also played a part in it - parents suddenly thinking what if their kids were ever caught up in something like that, and how therefore there needed to be more police and a protected NHS to take care of them if it happened.

A bit fanciful if you ask me. Most people appreciate that the chances of being caught up in a terroist attack are extremely small.

More likely imo, parents of younger children were attacted by the thought that it might not cost them or their kids as much to go to uni if Corbyn got in. That, and many people feeling the effects of 7 years of no real wage growth. But in truth, who knows?

Parents of younger children will have had recent prolonged dealings with the NHS and may also be caught up in the shortage of school places. I doubt many would be looking forwards two decades at university fees.

Yes fair point. I should have said parents of teenage children.

Benpointer

Ishmael_Z said:

spire2 said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.htm

Its certainly a wild ride. Is it time to consider this?

Working link

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.html

No one would make a simulation as ridiculous as these past two years!

Benpointer

nunuone said:

Danny565 said:

OK, even at his worst moments, I refuse to believe Corbyn's running of Labour was as chaotic as Trump's running of the White House....

But what about Corbyn running of 10 Downing Street......

I doubt it could be as shambolic as the current incumbant's

FrancisUrquhart

Benpointer said:

nunuone said:

Danny565 said:

OK, even at his worst moments, I refuse to believe Corbyn's running of Labour was as chaotic as Trump's running of the White House....

But what about Corbyn running of 10 Downing Street......

I doubt it could be as shambolic as the current incumbant's

Yeah right, let's not forget corbyn took weeks to do a simple reshuffle and couldn't even put together a shadow cabinet without people having to double up jobs.

FrancisUrquhart

Nigelb said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Scaramucci out as Trump media chief
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40782299

The mildly amusing thing about this is that he apparently sold his company so he could take a job in the administration.

Slightly less amusing is that his wife divorced him over his Trump support.

I am going to guess the marriage wasn't exactly in good shape prior to that.

stevef

Note that a bigger percentage of 18-24 year olds voted in 1992 and the Tories won their biggest ever vote. Youth turnouts do not necessarily add up to Labour victories.
Note too that fewer over 65s voted in 2017 -a mistake they wont make next time.

Overall this chart is bad news for Corbyn.

Benpointer

stevef said:

Note that a bigger percentage of 18-24 year olds voted in 1992 and the Tories won their biggest ever vote. Youth turnouts do not necessarily add up to Labour victories.
Note too that fewer over 65s voted in 2017 -a mistake they wont make next time.

Overall this chart is bad news for Corbyn.

Dream on Steve old pal. And there's a new thread btw