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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How general election turnout has changed by age group – 1964-2

SystemSystem Posts: 12,260
edited July 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How general election turnout has changed by age group – 1964-2017

Commons Library Research briefing

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited July 2017
    I

    18-24 back to the Fatcha years. So higher youth turn out not a death sentence for Con.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Second like democracy in Venezuela.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    edited July 2017
    Third!

    Blair was the pits for youth turnout. Such is disillusion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I

    18-24 back to the Fatcha years. So higher youth turn out not a death sentence for Con.

    The economy wasn't organised so heavily in older people's interests back then.
  • JetJet Posts: 11
    edited July 2017
    Phillip Hammond seems remarkably slurpy towards the Saudi dictatorship. How much longer will Theresa May sit on the Home office report that focuses on Saudi funding of the Daesh terror network in Britain?

    I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    "Fewer oldies bothered to vote"

    Hopefully they won't make that mistake again.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    "Fewer oldies bothered to vote"

    Hopefully they won't make that mistake again.

    Probably not... but expect even more under 34s to vote now it's becoming on-trend!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Benpointer said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    "Fewer oldies bothered to vote"

    Hopefully they won't make that mistake again.

    Probably not... but expect even more under 34s to vote now it's becoming on-trend!
    Nah, voting will seem so 2017...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    IanB2 said:

    Third!

    Blair was the pits for youth turnout. Such is disillusion.

    I do find it surprising the way the young vote dropped in 1997 and 2001. I wouldn't have guessed that.

    What was the big turn-off I wonder? If it was Blair why didn't they just vote Con or LD?

    It would be nice to see a series normalised on birth year ranges, to see if there's a generation that is just turned off by politics. I guess the raw data doesn't exist in that form.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    Jet said:

    I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

    Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,240
    williamglenn said:

    Jet said:

    I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

    Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
    To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    OT - what do we make of this? Gossipy stirring from Uncle Vince or is there some fire behind the smoke?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/30/boris-johnson-vince-cable-trade-barbs-resignation-rumours
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Benpointer said:

    I do find it surprising the way the young vote dropped in 1997 and 2001. I wouldn't have guessed that.

    2001 isn't surprising, it was the most boring election for yonks, and the result was not in doubt.

    I agree that 1997 is rather a surprise. I don't think it can have been Blair personally turning off young voters. Perhaps it was all the effort New Labour put into presenting themselves as a serious party of government, with, conversely, Corbyn doing well in 2017 for the opposite reason?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    williamglenn said:

    Jet said:

    I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

    Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
    Would have to be a National Government, so expect Chuka, Yvette and Vince to figure in the wider cabinet.

    Ain't happening though. Next you'll be predicting The Donald for POTUS :smile:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jet said:

    I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

    Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
    To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.
    More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Glenn, impossible. That quartet is so collectively wet they'd drown.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,140
    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jet said:

    I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

    Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
    Would have to be a National Government, so expect Chuka, Yvette and Vince to figure in the wider cabinet.

    Ain't happening though. Next you'll be predicting The Donald for POTUS :smile:
    Long time lurker? :D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Benpointer said:

    I do find it surprising the way the young vote dropped in 1997 and 2001. I wouldn't have guessed that.

    2001 isn't surprising, it was the most boring election for yonks, and the result was not in doubt.

    I agree that 1997 is rather a surprise. I don't think it can have been Blair personally turning off young voters. Perhaps it was all the effort New Labour put into presenting themselves as a serious party of government, with, conversely, Corbyn doing well in 2017 for the opposite reason?
    Yes that could it for 1997. Of course 2001 was boring... Labour started with a lead of 15-20%. With that sort of lead the result has to be a forgone conclusion. Doesn't it Theresa?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    edited July 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    "Fewer oldies bothered to vote"

    Hopefully they won't make that mistake again.

    "No, Mr. Bond. I expect you to die..."
    (?)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

    .... It still boggles the mind.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    F1: some time off, but I'm just checking something about Spa (Belgian Grand Prix) and it's bloody weird running down the order and seeing some chaps with Nazi flags.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    GE2017 really was one giant supergrade f*ck-up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    Casino_Royale said:

    GE2017 really was one giant supergrade f*ck-up.

    Karma from the Referendum campaign.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: some time off, but I'm just checking something about Spa (Belgian Grand Prix) and it's bloody weird running down the order and seeing some chaps with Nazi flags.

    One of those winning drivers - Rudolf Caracciola - has the Karussel corner at the Nurburgring named after him.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    Casino_Royale said:

    GE2017 really was one giant supergrade f*ck-up.

    I think you understate the magnitude of the fuck up. This one is on a cosmic scale.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    GE2017 really was one giant supergrade f*ck-up.

    I think you understate the magnitude of the fuck up. This one is on a cosmic scale.
    Intergalactic.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Royale, indeed.

    Mr. 86, a corner that will last for a thousand years.

    Incidentally, the minor thingummyjig I was checking proved correct, so, if odds permit, it'll probably be an early tip.

    Early tips recently have been quite good, in stark contrast to actual results. Speaking of which, I read that Magnussen got a penalty despite not hitting Hulkenberg, and Sainz didn't get one despite hitting Alonso.

    That did not amuse.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,879
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jet said:

    I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

    Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
    To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.
    More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
    Who would you have in the Nurse Ratched role?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jet said:

    I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

    Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
    To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.
    More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
    Who would you have in the Nurse Ratched role?
    Since the Remainers wold be the inmates I would probably have Priti Patel as their nemesis. :)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jet said:

    I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

    Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
    To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.
    More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
    Who would you have in the Nurse Ratched role?
    By the way did you see my answer to your questions about rates of change last night?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

    .... It still boggles the mind.

    I am not an expert on previous campaigns but it certainly does seem that way. Can anyone think of a worse run campaign?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Benpointer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Third!

    Blair was the pits for youth turnout. Such is disillusion.

    I do find it surprising the way the young vote dropped in 1997 and 2001. I wouldn't have guessed that.

    What was the big turn-off I wonder?
    I'm a bit perplexed by this - I thought it has long been broadly accepted that Labour's electoral strategy in that period (as run by Alastair Campbell) was to not let the other side have even a smidgen of oxygen. Highly efficient, highly effective and highly negative.

    Look at the numbers polling - Tories lost 5 million voters 92 to 97, Labour only gained 2 million of them.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    "It would be nice to see a series normalised on birth year ranges, to see if there's a generation that is just turned off by politics. I guess the raw data doesn't exist in that form."

    Yes,
    If a generation had been turned off, you would expect to see some effects moving up the age cohorts with each election.

    Back of the envelope stuff but if the 18-24s had been put off voting for life in 1997, they would be 38 to 44 now - and definitely in the 35 - 44 cohort in both 2015 and 2017.

    Is that dip/plateau due to that? Is it large enough?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

    .... It still boggles the mind.

    I am not an expert on previous campaigns but it certainly does seem that way. Can anyone think of a worse run campaign?
    Hague's Tory campaign was pretty dire.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,774
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I

    18-24 back to the Fatcha years. So higher youth turn out not a death sentence for Con.

    As was observed after the election, their big problem isn't the youth vote - which they've never really got. Apart from Jacob Rees-Mogg, who on Earth would vote Tory while at uni? Even Boris pretended to be in the SDP. Their huge problem is with 25-40 year olds as home ownership is dropping amongst that age group, if you're 30 wages have been stagnant under Tory led governments for most of your adult working life and to top it all off there's another load more pain on the way thanks to a decision you don't support. They've got Jeremy to thank for things not being far worse.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,879
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jet said:

    I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

    Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
    To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.
    More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
    Who would you have in the Nurse Ratched role?
    By the way did you see my answer to your questions about rates of change last night?
    I did not. I suspect I was fast asleep :smile:

    I'll go dig them out
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

    .... It still boggles the mind.

    I am not an expert on previous campaigns but it certainly does seem that way. Can anyone think of a worse run campaign?
    Eddie the Eagle's campaign for Olympic gold.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    IanB2 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

    .... It still boggles the mind.

    I am not an expert on previous campaigns but it certainly does seem that way. Can anyone think of a worse run campaign?
    Hague's Tory campaign was pretty dire.
    Hague's campaign was dire for two reasons. First, Hague led on saving the pound -- but Gordon Brown had already shot that fox. Second, it was said that reports from the ground on how badly this was going were filtered out by CCHQ before they reached the top team.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited July 2017
    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    GE2017 really was one giant supergrade f*ck-up.

    I think you understate the magnitude of the fuck up. This one is on a cosmic scale.
    Intergalactic.
    What's an inter gala(c) tic? A withdrawal symptom between fetes?
    sorry.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    edited July 2017
    Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

    The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

    Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

    I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    Scaramucci is out.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scaramucci out as Trump media chief
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40782299
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,919
    MJW said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I

    18-24 back to the Fatcha years. So higher youth turn out not a death sentence for Con.

    As was observed after the election, their big problem isn't the youth vote - which they've never really got. Apart from Jacob Rees-Mogg, who on Earth would vote Tory while at uni? Even Boris pretended to be in the SDP. Their huge problem is with 25-40 year olds as home ownership is dropping amongst that age group, if you're 30 wages have been stagnant under Tory led governments for most of your adult working life and to top it all off there's another load more pain on the way thanks to a decision you don't support. They've got Jeremy to thank for things not being far worse.
    I vaguely remember that the Conservatives did better among first time voters in 1987 than the electorate as a whole.

    Of course that was an era when there was rapidly increasing levels of home ownership and students were given money rather than suffer fees.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    OK, even at his worst moments, I refuse to believe Corbyn's running of Labour was as chaotic as Trump's running of the White House....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited July 2017
    PeterMannion said:

    Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

    The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

    Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

    I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

    We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).

    I pointed this out on the eve of the GE and after, but the media narrative was of course all about youngsters.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    williamglenn said:

    Scaramucci is out.

    I'm undecided as to whether that's (relatively) good or bad for Trump with his supporters.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scaramucci out as Trump media chief
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40782299

    I hope he wasn't stabbed in the back.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    Toms said:

    williamglenn said:

    Scaramucci is out.

    I'm undecided as to whether that's (relatively) good or bad for Trump with his supporters.
    Trump can certainly pick them - must be his experience in running 'The Apprentice'.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

    The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

    Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

    I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

    We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).
    Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,383
    Scaramucci told to go and do a Fandango.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scaramucci out as Trump media chief
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40782299

    The mildly amusing thing about this is that he apparently sold his company so he could take a job in the administration.

    Slightly less amusing is that his wife divorced him over his Trump support.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,919
    Danny565 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

    The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

    Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

    I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

    We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).
    Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.
    That assumption was made before George Osborne robbed the young.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    https://twitter.com/1000cuts/status/891394926898028545
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    SandyRentool said:

    Scaramucci told to go and do a Fandango.

    easy come easy go

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,383
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jet said:

    I won't be surprised if May, Hammond and Johnson are all out of the cabinet within a year.

    Fantasy Brexit hit-squad:

    PM: Ken Clarke
    Chancellor: Amber Rudd
    Home Secretary: Anna Soubry
    Foreign Secretary: Dominic Grieve
    To coin a phrase, it's like the whole cast of Fraggle Rock.
    More like the cast of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
    Who would you have in the Nurse Ratched role?
    Since the Remainers wold be the inmates I would probably have Priti Patel as their nemesis. :)
    Priti Patel in a nurse's uniform....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Pointer, be fair. Nobody's run a campaign as terrible as May before.

    .... It still boggles the mind.

    I am not an expert on previous campaigns but it certainly does seem that way. Can anyone think of a worse run campaign?
    Well, it's the US, but there is this one:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_McGovern_presidential_campaign,_1972
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    another_richard said:

    Danny565 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

    The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

    Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

    I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

    We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).
    Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.
    That assumption was made before George Osborne robbed the young.
    I wonder if the Manchester attack also played a part in it - parents suddenly thinking what if their kids were ever caught up in something like that, and how therefore there needed to be more police and a protected NHS to take care of them if it happened.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Royale, indeed.

    Mr. 86, a corner that will last for a thousand years.

    Incidentally, the minor thingummyjig I was checking proved correct, so, if odds permit, it'll probably be an early tip.

    Early tips recently have been quite good, in stark contrast to actual results. Speaking of which, I read that Magnussen got a penalty despite not hitting Hulkenberg, and Sainz didn't get one despite hitting Alonso.

    That did not amuse.

    Whereas Magnussen's subsequent retort to Hulkenberg....

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2017
    spire2 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Scaramucci told to go and do a Fandango.

    easy come easy go

    Don's just a poor boy, nobody loves him.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,380
    Scaramucci
    Scaramucci
    Would you do the fandango
    Trump-erbolt and lightning
    Very very frightening me
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Has anyone seen anything like this Trump administration? This tweet (from a few months ago) sums it up:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/goldengateblond/status/891103556748558336
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    Danny565 said:

    spire2 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Scaramucci told to go and do a Fandango.

    easy come easy go

    Don's just a poor boy, nobody loves him.
    He's just a rich boy, from a rich family.
    Spare us our lives from this monstrosity.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    I didn't actually know this:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaramouche
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 183
    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.htm

    Its certainly a wild ride. Is it time to consider this?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    Toms said:

    williamglenn said:

    Scaramucci is out.

    I'm undecided as to whether that's (relatively) good or bad for Trump with his supporters.
    Depends whether it's the first step in Kelly actually taking charge of the White House (should Trump ever allow such a thing), or just a continuation of the rolling clusterf*ck that has been the administration to date.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    spire2 said:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.htm

    Its certainly a wild ride. Is it time to consider this?

    It appears the simulation is trying to protect itself, as that page is mysteriously unavailable ...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    spire2 said:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.htm

    Its certainly a wild ride. Is it time to consider this?

    Working link

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.html
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Danny565 said:

    another_richard said:

    Danny565 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

    The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

    Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

    I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

    We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).
    Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.
    That assumption was made before George Osborne robbed the young.
    I wonder if the Manchester attack also played a part in it - parents suddenly thinking what if their kids were ever caught up in something like that, and how therefore there needed to be more police and a protected NHS to take care of them if it happened.
    A bit fanciful if you ask me. Most people appreciate that the chances of being caught up in a terroist attack are extremely small.

    More likely imo, parents of younger children were attacted by the thought that it might not cost them or their kids as much to go to uni if Corbyn got in. That, and many people feeling the effects of 7 years of no real wage growth. But in truth, who knows?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,485
    Danny565 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

    The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

    Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

    I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

    We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).
    Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.
    On the contrary. The middle class parent vote for Labour was a small "c" conservative vote. It was a vote to preserve the inheritances of their children. It was a vote to reduce the cost of university. It was a vote for not contributing to your own old age or education, especially if you were well off.

    It was May with her incompetently thought through and presented dementia tax who was being revolutionary, if indeed it is revolutionary to suggest that those with the greatest savings and assets should contribute something to the cost of their care in old age. Corbyn's vote was fundamentally nostalgic. May was seeking change - on this at least. Though all those shouting for something to be done on social care a few months back have gone quiet now.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Benpointer said:

    Danny565 said:

    another_richard said:

    Danny565 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

    The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

    Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

    I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

    We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).
    Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.
    That assumption was made before George Osborne robbed the young.
    I wonder if the Manchester attack also played a part in it - parents suddenly thinking what if their kids were ever caught up in something like that, and how therefore there needed to be more police and a protected NHS to take care of them if it happened.
    A bit fanciful if you ask me. Most people appreciate that the chances of being caught up in a terroist attack are extremely small.

    More likely imo, parents of younger children were attacted by the thought that it might not cost them or their kids as much to go to uni if Corbyn got in. That, and many people feeling the effects of 7 years of no real wage growth. But in truth, who knows?
    Parents of younger children will have had recent prolonged dealings with the NHS and may also be caught up in the shortage of school places. I doubt many would be looking forwards two decades at university fees.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Danny565 said:

    OK, even at his worst moments, I refuse to believe Corbyn's running of Labour was as chaotic as Trump's running of the White House....

    But what about Corbyn running of 10 Downing Street......
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited July 2017
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Benpointer said:

    Danny565 said:

    another_richard said:

    Danny565 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Is it me, or does this not appear to explain it all?

    The increase in young vote is fairly small, and still a lower % than in other elections with no increase in left wing votes.

    Older voters are down a bit, but unless both the above are incredibly well targeted decreases/increases, it doesn't fully explain the Corbyn shift?

    I think there is more to explain - such as other groups voting Labour more than previously or expected - middle aged, middle class etc?

    We already know. May went from a massive lead among the middle aged to losing / tied (depending on where you define middle aged).
    Anecdotally, I think the shift with middle-class people was much more marked among parents, than it was with childless people. Which goes a bit against the assumption that its parenthood that makes people more small-c conservative.
    That assumption was made before George Osborne robbed the young.
    I wonder if the Manchester attack also played a part in it - parents suddenly thinking what if their kids were ever caught up in something like that, and how therefore there needed to be more police and a protected NHS to take care of them if it happened.
    A bit fanciful if you ask me. Most people appreciate that the chances of being caught up in a terroist attack are extremely small.

    More likely imo, parents of younger children were attacted by the thought that it might not cost them or their kids as much to go to uni if Corbyn got in. That, and many people feeling the effects of 7 years of no real wage growth. But in truth, who knows?
    Parents of younger children will have had recent prolonged dealings with the NHS and may also be caught up in the shortage of school places. I doubt many would be looking forwards two decades at university fees.
    Yes fair point. I should have said parents of teenage children.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Ishmael_Z said:

    spire2 said:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.htm

    Its certainly a wild ride. Is it time to consider this?

    Working link

    http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/do-brexit-and-trump-show-that-we-re-living-in-a-computer-simulation-a7641906.html
    No one would make a simulation as ridiculous as these past two years!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    nunuone said:

    Danny565 said:

    OK, even at his worst moments, I refuse to believe Corbyn's running of Labour was as chaotic as Trump's running of the White House....

    But what about Corbyn running of 10 Downing Street......
    I doubt it could be as shambolic as the current incumbant's
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited July 2017
    Benpointer said:

    nunuone said:

    Danny565 said:

    OK, even at his worst moments, I refuse to believe Corbyn's running of Labour was as chaotic as Trump's running of the White House....

    But what about Corbyn running of 10 Downing Street......
    I doubt it could be as shambolic as the current incumbant's
    Yeah right, let's not forget corbyn took weeks to do a simple reshuffle and couldn't even put together a shadow cabinet without people having to double up jobs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scaramucci out as Trump media chief
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40782299

    The mildly amusing thing about this is that he apparently sold his company so he could take a job in the administration.

    Slightly less amusing is that his wife divorced him over his Trump support.
    I am going to guess the marriage wasn't exactly in good shape prior to that.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Note that a bigger percentage of 18-24 year olds voted in 1992 and the Tories won their biggest ever vote. Youth turnouts do not necessarily add up to Labour victories.
    Note too that fewer over 65s voted in 2017 -a mistake they wont make next time.

    Overall this chart is bad news for Corbyn.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    stevef said:

    Note that a bigger percentage of 18-24 year olds voted in 1992 and the Tories won their biggest ever vote. Youth turnouts do not necessarily add up to Labour victories.
    Note too that fewer over 65s voted in 2017 -a mistake they wont make next time.

    Overall this chart is bad news for Corbyn.

    Dream on Steve old pal. And there's a new thread btw :smile:
This discussion has been closed.