politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: End of term review

System · July 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: End of term review

As Westminster heads on its summer holidays, Keiran is joined by Polling Matters regulars Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to review the year-to-date.

Read the full story here

JosiasJessop · July 2017

Thirst.

CarlottaVance · July 2017

Thecond! Like Jewethmy than Thwemain....

old_labour · July 2017

Thora Hird.

foxinsoxuk · July 2017

May the fourth be with you...

Richard_H · July 2017

I claim the fifth

Richard_H · July 2017

Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.

tlg86 · July 2017

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.

I think you've just set off PB's version of the QI claxon.

Mortimer · July 2017

tlg86 said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
I think you've just set off PB's version of the QI claxon.

Indeed. Rumours propagated by someone who doesn't understand the leadership rules....

foxinsoxuk · July 2017

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.

Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.

freetochoose · July 2017

Mortimer said:

tlg86 said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
I think you've just set off PB's version of the QI claxon.
Indeed. Rumours propagated by someone who doesn't understand the leadership rules....

"rumours" "if" "nearly" "might"

Sighs.

freetochoose · July 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.

Albeit one with a majority of 346

DavidL · July 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.

How would hairshirt austerity and tax rises boost a flaccid economy? It would do the exact opposite. What I think is more likely is that the government will relax the deficit reduction plan even more finding additional (borrowed) money for the NHS, social care and infrastructure/housing with a view to giving the economy a boost and offsetting any Brexit effect.

SquareRoot · July 2017

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.
How would hairshirt austerity and tax rises boost a flaccid economy? It would do the exact opposite. What I think is more likely is that the government will relax the deficit reduction plan even more finding additional (borrowed) money for the NHS, social care and infrastructure/housing with a view to giving the economy a boost and offsetting any Brexit effect.

.. and when that fails. Labour will have no answer

Nigelb · July 2017

Further to previous discussions on electric vehicles, Mercedes seems to be preparing to go all in on electrification.
They are building billion dollar battery factories in Europe and China.. as well as refocusing their motorsport activities:
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/130904

Don't tell Morris Dancer, but F1 might be going all electric in five years' time.....

JosiasJessop · July 2017

Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.

Alanbrooke · July 2017

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.

How about

who is the MP for Peterborough ?

DavidL · July 2017

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.
How would hairshirt austerity and tax rises boost a flaccid economy? It would do the exact opposite. What I think is more likely is that the government will relax the deficit reduction plan even more finding additional (borrowed) money for the NHS, social care and infrastructure/housing with a view to giving the economy a boost and offsetting any Brexit effect.
.. and when that fails. Labour will have no answer

Labour's answer is always more spending. If it fails (and it might) they didn't spend enough.

Scott_P · July 2017

Alanbrooke said:
How about

who is the MP for Peterborough ?

Nope

Alanbrooke · July 2017

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.
How would hairshirt austerity and tax rises boost a flaccid economy? It would do the exact opposite. What I think is more likely is that the government will relax the deficit reduction plan even more finding additional (borrowed) money for the NHS, social care and infrastructure/housing with a view to giving the economy a boost and offsetting any Brexit effect.
.. and when that fails. Labour will have no answer
Labour's answer is always more spending. If it fails (and it might) they didn't spend enough.

the problem imo remains an unbalanced economy, we still import far too many things we could make ourselves.

HMG needs to be putting in place measures which tackle our appalling trade imbalances

DavidL · July 2017

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.

Eh, who is the most recent former MP for Peterborough?

PeterC · July 2017

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.

There are no 'leadership challanges' in the new rules. The letters are to trigger an MPs vote of confidence in the leader. If she wins that she can stay, if she loses she's out and cannot stand again.

JosiasJessop · July 2017

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
How about

who is the MP for Peterborough ?

Nope, it's Fiona Onasanya.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40210788

One of the few Conservative losses this year that I could cheer.

DavidL · July 2017

PeterC said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
There are no 'leadership challanges' in the new rules. The letters are to trigger an MPs vote of confidence in the leader. If she wins that she can stay, if she loses she's out and cannot stand again.

I do tend to agree that if the trigger point is reached she may not choose to proceed to the vote of (no) confidence. I think she will conclude the game is up.

archer101au · July 2017

Well, moving to WTO rules to trade with Germany should help with that

Alanbrooke said:

the problem imo remains an unbalanced economy, we still import far too many things we could make ourselves.

HMG needs to be putting in place measures which tackle our appalling trade imbalances

JosiasJessop · July 2017

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
Eh, who is the most recent former MP for Peterborough?

And the correct answer is: "a git".

foxinsoxuk · July 2017

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.
How would hairshirt austerity and tax rises boost a flaccid economy? It would do the exact opposite. What I think is more likely is that the government will relax the deficit reduction plan even more finding additional (borrowed) money for the NHS, social care and infrastructure/housing with a view to giving the economy a boost and offsetting any Brexit effect.

From what we have seen of Phil Hammond, he does not seem to be a great advocate of Keynsian style reflation. He has implemented quite a few cuts accross the range of his roles in government in the recent past, and did come out with tax and NI rises in his Spring statement. His instincts are to reduce the deficit by this means. Politically he is mainstream, but he is admirably hard line on financial sustainiblity.

I am fairly sure his budget will meet with a response similar to your own, and the conflics will become manifest.

Alanbrooke · July 2017

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
How about

who is the MP for Peterborough ?
Nope, it's Fiona Onasanya.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40210788

One of the few Conservative losses this year that I could cheer.

how about which former MP was Josiah Jessop most happy to see lose his seat ?

DavidL · July 2017

Alanbrooke said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.
How would hairshirt austerity and tax rises boost a flaccid economy? It would do the exact opposite. What I think is more likely is that the government will relax the deficit reduction plan even more finding additional (borrowed) money for the NHS, social care and infrastructure/housing with a view to giving the economy a boost and offsetting any Brexit effect.
.. and when that fails. Labour will have no answer
Labour's answer is always more spending. If it fails (and it might) they didn't spend enough.
the problem imo remains an unbalanced economy, we still import far too many things we could make ourselves.

HMG needs to be putting in place measures which tackle our appalling trade imbalances

Absolutely agree. The trade deficit is slowly impoverishing us all but achieving material reductions when government borrowing (and hence excess demand) is starting to rise again will be difficult.

JosiasJessop · July 2017

According to his website, it appears that Jackson's still living in a world pre-8th June:

"I am standing for re-election as the Conservative Party Candidate in the General Election on Thursday 8th June."

"Email stewart.jackson.mp@parliament.uk"

foxinsoxuk · July 2017

DavidL said:

PeterC said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
There are no 'leadership challanges' in the new rules. The letters are to trigger an MPs vote of confidence in the leader. If she wins that she can stay, if she loses she's out and cannot stand again.
I do tend to agree that if the trigger point is reached she may not choose to proceed to the vote of (no) confidence. I think she will conclude the game is up.

ThT is the mechanism that I anticipate. I dont think May has the stomach for fighting on.

Morris_Dancer · July 2017

Good morning, everyone.

The podcast hiatus almost exactly coincides with a four week gap in F1 (after Hungary). Quelle horreur!

JosiasJessop · July 2017

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
How about

who is the MP for Peterborough ?
Nope, it's Fiona Onasanya.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40210788

One of the few Conservative losses this year that I could cheer.
how about which former MP was Josiah Jessop most happy to see lose his seat ?

Again, the answer is: "a git."

His reaction to his loss has not done him credit.

Alanbrooke · July 2017

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
How about

who is the MP for Peterborough ?
Nope, it's Fiona Onasanya.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40210788

One of the few Conservative losses this year that I could cheer.
how about which former MP was Josiah Jessop most happy to see lose his seat ?
Again, the answer is: "a git."

His reaction to his loss has not done him credit.

I.m beginning to form the impression youre not a fan

DavidL · July 2017

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
Eh, who is the most recent former MP for Peterborough?
And the correct answer is: "a git".

Not a fan then?

JosiasJessop · July 2017

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
How about

who is the MP for Peterborough ?
Nope, it's Fiona Onasanya.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40210788

One of the few Conservative losses this year that I could cheer.
how about which former MP was Josiah Jessop most happy to see lose his seat ?
Again, the answer is: "a git."

His reaction to his loss has not done him credit.
I.m beginning to form the impression youre not a fan

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
Eh, who is the most recent former MP for Peterborough?
And the correct answer is: "a git".
Not a fan then?

I'm amazed that you both could come to that conclusion. I mean, it's like you're mind readers or summit. My flabber is well and truly ghasted ...

DavidL · July 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.
How would hairshirt austerity and tax rises boost a flaccid economy? It would do the exact opposite. What I think is more likely is that the government will relax the deficit reduction plan even more finding additional (borrowed) money for the NHS, social care and infrastructure/housing with a view to giving the economy a boost and offsetting any Brexit effect.
From what we have seen of Phil Hammond, he does not seem to be a great advocate of Keynsian style reflation. He has implemented quite a few cuts accross the range of his roles in government in the recent past, and did come out with tax and NI rises in his Spring statement. His instincts are to reduce the deficit by this means. Politically he is mainstream, but he is admirably hard line on financial sustainiblity.

I am fairly sure his budget will meet with a response similar to your own, and the conflics will become manifest.

I think the pressures caused by austerity are too great for a weak minority government to handle and that they will give ground by increasing spending in troublesome areas. Some of it will be dressed up as "getting us ready for Brexit".

DavidL · July 2017

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
How about

who is the MP for Peterborough ?
Nope, it's Fiona Onasanya.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40210788

One of the few Conservative losses this year that I could cheer.
how about which former MP was Josiah Jessop most happy to see lose his seat ?
Again, the answer is: "a git."

His reaction to his loss has not done him credit.
I.m beginning to form the impression youre not a fan

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
Eh, who is the most recent former MP for Peterborough?
And the correct answer is: "a git".
Not a fan then?
I'm amazed that you both could come to that conclusion. I mean, it's like you're mind readers or summit. My flabber is well and truly ghasted ...

It's that kind of razor sharp perception and intuition that makes the comments on PB so worth reading, don't you know.

Alanbrooke · July 2017

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
How about

who is the MP for Peterborough ?
Nope, it's Fiona Onasanya.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40210788

One of the few Conservative losses this year that I could cheer.
how about which former MP was Josiah Jessop most happy to see lose his seat ?
Again, the answer is: "a git."

His reaction to his loss has not done him credit.
I.m beginning to form the impression youre not a fan

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
Eh, who is the most recent former MP for Peterborough?
And the correct answer is: "a git".
Not a fan then?
I'm amazed that you both could come to that conclusion. I mean, it's like you're mind readers or summit. My flabber is well and truly ghasted ...

well I hope this isnt going to be one of those instances where some sad obsessive bangs on incessantly about a politican they dont like

cough Osborne cough

JosiasJessop · July 2017

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
How about

who is the MP for Peterborough ?
Nope, it's Fiona Onasanya.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40210788

One of the few Conservative losses this year that I could cheer.
how about which former MP was Josiah Jessop most happy to see lose his seat ?
Again, the answer is: "a git."

His reaction to his loss has not done him credit.
I.m beginning to form the impression youre not a fan

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
Eh, who is the most recent former MP for Peterborough?
And the correct answer is: "a git".
Not a fan then?
I'm amazed that you both could come to that conclusion. I mean, it's like you're mind readers or summit. My flabber is well and truly ghasted ...
well I hope this isnt going to be one of those instances where some sad obsessive bangs on incessantly about a politican they dont like

cough Osborne cough

Genuine LOL.

foxinsoxuk · July 2017

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.
How would hairshirt austerity and tax rises boost a .
From what we have seen of Phil Hammond, he does not seem to be a great advocate of Keynsian style reflation. He has implemented quite a few cuts accross the range of his roles in government in the recent past, and did come out with tax and NI rises in his Spring statement. His instincts are to reduce the deficit by this means. Politically he is mainstream, but he is admirably hard line on financial sustainiblity.

I am fairly sure his budget will meet with a response similar to your own, and the conflics will become manifest.
I think the pressures caused by austerity are too great for a weak minority government to handle and that they will give ground by increasing spending in troublesome areas. Some of it will be dressed up as "getting us ready for Brexit".

Whether that is a wise approach is by the by.

Hammond has shown in his attitude to public sector pay and with the clearing out of "no tax rises" from the manifesto how his mind works. He clearly anticipates the economy worsening and will not want to loosen the purse strings. We may well get that promised "punishment budget".

alex. · July 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

PeterC said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
There are no 'leadership challanges' in the new rules. The letters are to trigger an MPs vote of confidence in the leader. If she wins that she can stay, if she loses she's out and cannot stand again.
I do tend to agree that if the trigger point is reached she may not choose to proceed to the vote of (no) confidence. I think she will conclude the game is up.
ThT is the mechanism that I anticipate. I dont think May has the stomach for fighting on.

There is an obvious problem with the Tory leadership rules, in that they have never been tested in Government. This is not 1990 when a leader could be challenged and a new PM installed within a couple of weeks. Short of a coronation happening, a proper leadership contest takes months.

During which we either have a lame duck, or interim PM. It's not a path the country should want to go down. Even worse, if the nature of Brexit became an issue in the leadership election which would basically mean no meaningful negotiations for the period. The EU would probably walk out as the UK would not be able to negotiate in good faith.

IanB2 · July 2017

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.
How would hairshirt austerity and tax rises boost a flaccid economy? It would do the exact opposite. What I think is more likely is that the government will relax the deficit reduction plan even more finding additional (borrowed) money for the NHS, social care and infrastructure/housing with a view to giving the economy a boost and offsetting any Brexit effect.
From what we have seen of Phil Hammond, he does not seem to be a great advocate of Keynsian style reflation. He has implemented quite a few cuts accross the range of his roles in government in the recent past, and did come out with tax and NI rises in his Spring statement. His instincts are to reduce the deficit by this means. Politically he is mainstream, but he is admirably hard line on financial sustainiblity.

I am fairly sure his budget will meet with a response similar to your own, and the conflics will become manifest.
I think the pressures caused by austerity are too great for a weak minority government to handle and that they will give ground by increasing spending in troublesome areas. Some of it will be dressed up as "getting us ready for Brexit".

Which is basically what they said after the Referendum, when the 'long-term economic plan' was thrown out of the balloon in panic at the risks that lay ahead, thereby rendering the Tories unable to counter Corbyn's manifesto with any credibility.

DecrepitJohnL · July 2017

alex. said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

PeterC said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
There are no 'leadership challanges' in the new rules. The letters are to trigger an MPs vote of confidence in the leader. If she wins that she can stay, if she loses she's out and cannot stand again.
I do tend to agree that if the trigger point is reached she may not choose to proceed to the vote of (no) confidence. I think she will conclude the game is up.
ThT is the mechanism that I anticipate. I dont think May has the stomach for fighting on.
There is an obvious problem with the Tory leadership rules, in that they have never been tested in Government. This is not 1990 when a leader could be challenged and a new PM installed within a couple of weeks. Short of a coronation happening, a proper leadership contest takes months.

During which we either have a lame duck, or interim PM. It's not a path the country should want to go down. Even worse, if the nature of Brexit became an issue in the leadership election which would basically mean no meaningful negotiations for the period. The EU would probably walk out as the UK would not be able to negotiate in good faith.

People keep saying a leadership election will take months but the last one -- also in government -- took just a few weeks. David Cameron announced it on 24th June. Theresa May won on 11th July.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2016

There could be another election called tomorrow or next month or the one after and a new leader installed before conference.

PeterC · July 2017

alex. said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

PeterC said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
There are no 'leadership challanges' in the new rules. The letters are to trigger an MPs vote of confidence in the leader. If she wins that she can stay, if she loses she's out and cannot stand again.
I do tend to agree that if the trigger point is reached she may not choose to proceed to the vote of (no) confidence. I think she will conclude the game is up.
ThT is the mechanism that I anticipate. I dont think May has the stomach for fighting on.
There is an obvious problem with the Tory leadership rules, in that they have never been tested in Government. This is not 1990 when a leader could be challenged and a new PM installed within a couple of weeks. Short of a coronation happening, a proper leadership contest takes months.

During which we either have a lame duck, or interim PM. It's not a path the country should want to go down. Even worse, if the nature of Brexit became an issue in the leadership election which would basically mean no meaningful negotiations for the period. The EU would probably walk out as the UK would not be able to negotiate in good faith.

A party daft enough to unleash such a scenario would truly have lost the plot. I too would expect that May would walk away and not submit to the VoC. She has made the best of a bad job by forming a government and trying to deliver Brexit. Unless she won the vote overwhelmingly she would unvaoidably suffer further damage. From her point of view it would just not be worth the candle.

alex. · July 2017

DecrepitJohnL said:

alex. said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

PeterC said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
There are no 'leadership challanges' in the new rules. The letters are to trigger an MPs vote of confidence in the leader. If she wins that she can stay, if she loses she's out and cannot stand again.
I do tend to agree that if the trigger point is reached she may not choose to proceed to the vote of (no) confidence. I think she will conclude the game is up.
ThT is the mechanism that I anticipate. I dont think May has the stomach for fighting on.
There is an obvious problem with the Tory leadership rules, in that they have never been tested in Government. This is not 1990 when a leader could be challenged and a new PM installed within a couple of weeks. Short of a coronation happening, a proper leadership contest takes months.

During which we either have a lame duck, or interim PM. It's not a path the country should want to go down. Even worse, if the nature of Brexit became an issue in the leadership election which would basically mean no meaningful negotiations for the period. The EU would probably walk out as the UK would not be able to negotiate in good faith.
People keep saying a leadership election will take months but the last one -- also in government -- took just a few weeks. David Cameron announced it on 24th June. Theresa May won on 11th July.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2016

There could be another election called tomorrow or next month or the one after and a new leader installed before conference.

Rather a non-sequitur given it never made it to the membership.

rcs1000 · July 2017

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.
How would hairshirt austerity and tax rises boost a flaccid economy? It would do the exact opposite. What I think is more likely is that the government will relax the deficit reduction plan even more finding additional (borrowed) money for the NHS, social care and infrastructure/housing with a view to giving the economy a boost and offsetting any Brexit effect.

Weak governments tend to run short-term, populist, economic policies. Could we see a rerun of the Barber boom?

alex. · July 2017

alex. said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

alex. said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

PeterC said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
There are no 'leadership challanges' in the new rules. The letters are to trigger an MPs vote of confidence in the leader. If she wins that she can stay, if she loses she's out and cannot stand again.
I do tend to agree that if the trigger point is reached she may not choose to proceed to the vote of (no) confidence. I think she will conclude the game is up.
ThT is the mechanism that I anticipate. I dont think May has the stomach for fighting on.
There is an obvious problem with the Tory leadership rules, in that they have never been tested in Government. This is not 1990 when a leader could be challenged and a new PM installed within a couple of weeks. Short of a coronation happening, a proper leadership contest takes months.

During which we either have a lame duck, or interim PM. It's not a path the country should want to go down. Even worse, if the nature of Brexit became an issue in the leadership election which would basically mean no meaningful negotiations for the period. The EU would probably walk out as the UK would not be able to negotiate in good faith.
People keep saying a leadership election will take months but the last one -- also in government -- took just a few weeks. David Cameron announced it on 24th June. Theresa May won on 11th July.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2016

There could be another election called tomorrow or next month or the one after and a new leader installed before conference.
Rather a non-sequitur given it never made it to the membership.

And Cameron had gone of his own accord. And pledged to stay until the election of a new leader. And the Conservatives had a majority. And there was no Brexit clock ticking...

rottenborough · July 2017

alex. said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

alex. said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

PeterC said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
There are no 'leadership challanges' in the new rules. The letters are to trigger an MPs vote of confidence in the leader. If she wins that she can stay, if she loses she's out and cannot stand again.
I do tend to agree that if the trigger point is reached she may not choose to proceed to the vote of (no) confidence. I think she will conclude the game is up.
ThT is the mechanism that I anticipate. I dont think May has the stomach for fighting on.
There is an obvious problem with the Tory leadership rules, in that they have never been tested in Government. This is not 1990 when a leader could be challenged and a new PM installed within a couple of weeks. Short of a coronation happening, a proper leadership contest takes months.

During which we either have a lame duck, or interim PM. It's not a path the country should want to go down. Even worse, if the nature of Brexit became an issue in the leadership election which would basically mean no meaningful negotiations for the period. The EU would probably walk out as the UK would not be able to negotiate in good faith.
People keep saying a leadership election will take months but the last one -- also in government -- took just a few weeks. David Cameron announced it on 24th June. Theresa May won on 11th July.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2016

There could be another election called tomorrow or next month or the one after and a new leader installed before conference.
Rather a non-sequitur given it never made it to the membership.

Morning all,

My feeling is May will return from hols with renewed strength. You don't get to be PM unless you have a certain strength of nerve and will.

But who knows? She may be inclined to fight on but her husband persuades her that its not worth the stress and strain on her health.

rottenborough · July 2017

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
Are we using the 1922 committee Klaxon?

I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.

I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.

I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.
How would hairshirt austerity and tax rises boost a flaccid economy? It would do the exact opposite. What I think is more likely is that the government will relax the deficit reduction plan even more finding additional (borrowed) money for the NHS, social care and infrastructure/housing with a view to giving the economy a boost and offsetting any Brexit effect.
Weak governments tend to run short-term, populist, economic policies. Could we see a rerun of the Barber boom?

QTWTAIN.

Morris_Dancer · July 2017

F1: No Safety Car odds have lengthened on Betfair to 1.79. I tipped at 1.61 (it'll stand at that in the records) but 1.79, given it's the circuit least likely to have one on the calendar, is just too long.

Scrapheap_as_was · July 2017

One word for Mr. Conte.

Subtle.

tlg86 · July 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
F1: No Safety Car odds have lengthened on Betfair to 1.79. I tipped at 1.61 (it'll stand at that in the records) but 1.79, given it's the circuit least likely to have one on the calendar, is just too long.

Is that based on past performances, and if so, on how many races? I see the temperature is forecast to be in the 30s on Sunday which might increase the chance of a big engine failure.

tlg86 · July 2017

Scrapheap_as_was said:
One word for Mr. Conte.

Subtle.

Given Chelsea go to Wembley in Week 2 of the season, I'm not sure they are particularly clever words from Conte.

williamglenn · July 2017

My Tory recovery plan would start with turning Daniel Hannan into their Derek Hatton. Expel him for bringing the party into disrepute and then use the ensuing drama to disown all of the nonsense positions he has given credence to. Into the bargain a lot of the nutters will walk out in sympathy which will leave behind a more cohesive party able to weather the oncoming storm due to the inevitable Exit from Brexit.

Morris_Dancer · July 2017

Mr. 86, I haven't checked for a couple of years, but it's the nature of the circuit. The track has a lot of run-off, which means going off a little doesn't mean an immediate crash and debris over the circuit. The corners also affect aerodynamics a lot (they're medium speed so you get neither cars alongside at high pace nor hairpins and last minute braking) which makes it relatively difficult to follow a car, leading to the field getting strung out and decreasing the odds on cars coming together.

Going by Wikipedia reports (imperfect, I know) there have been four races with a safety car from 2004. Whilst two of these were in the last five years, since then the VSC has been introduced, further decreasing the chance of one appearing.

I'm not saying it's a dead cert, but odds of 1.79 are too long.

Edited extra bit: and the weather forecast is for it to be dry, as suggested by your note on high temperatures.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2017

Scrapheap_as_was said:
One word for Mr. Conte.

Subtle.

I've been giving Mr Conte subtlety lessons.

On LFC TV they had a stat the other day that was amazing.

Last season Harry Kane scored more goals than Alvaro Morato has scored in his entire career.

PS - Are you going to set up a PB fantasy football league this season?

Sean_F · July 2017

williamglenn said:
My Tory recovery plan would start with turning Daniel Hannan into their Derek Hatton. Expel him for bringing the party into disrepute and then use the ensuing drama to disown all of the nonsense positions he has given credence to. Into the bargain a lot of the nutters will walk out in sympathy which will leave behind a more cohesive party able to weather the oncoming storm due to the inevitable Exit from Brexit.

Disagreeing with you is not the same as bringing the party into disrepute.

In any case, the rump Conservative Party would be left smaller than the expellees.

williamglenn · July 2017

@TSE - I had to expand your new avatar to check that it wasn't Keir Starmer.

DecrepitJohnL · July 2017

alex. said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

alex. said:

foxinsoxuk said:

DavidL said:

PeterC said:

Richard_H said:
Talking of numbers, rumours suggest there are nearly 20 letters with the Tory 1922 committee for a leaders contest. If that doubles, the we might see Maybot face a contest, which she might decide not to take part in.

Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
There are no 'leadership challanges' in the new rules. The letters are to trigger an MPs vote of confidence in the leader. If she wins that she can stay, if she loses she's out and cannot stand again.
I do tend to agree that if the trigger point is reached she may not choose to proceed to the vote of (no) confidence. I think she will conclude the game is up.
ThT is the mechanism that I anticipate. I dont think May has the stomach for fighting on.
There is an obvious problem with the Tory leadership rules, in that they have never been tested in Government. This is not 1990 when a leader could be challenged and a new PM installed within a couple of weeks. Short of a coronation happening, a proper leadership contest takes months.

During which we either have a lame duck, or interim PM. It's not a path the country should want to go down. Even worse, if the nature of Brexit became an issue in the leadership election which would basically mean no meaningful negotiations for the period. The EU would probably walk out as the UK would not be able to negotiate in good faith.
People keep saying a leadership election will take months but the last one -- also in government -- took just a few weeks. David Cameron announced it on 24th June. Theresa May won on 11th July.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2016

There could be another election called tomorrow or next month or the one after and a new leader installed before conference.
Rather a non-sequitur given it never made it to the membership.

Add another week if you like -- conference is the first week of October which gives time for two and a bit leadership elections between now and then.

tlg86 · July 2017

Thanks Mr Dancer - since the virtual safety car thing came in, have you been keeping a record of safety cars? I guess the most likely scenario is where there is debris on the track and they have to slow the cars down for the whole lap to allow the clean up to be done.

In that respect, the Hungaroring is perhaps more likely to have a safety car as it's not the longest of laps.

rural_voter · July 2017

williamglenn said:
My Tory recovery plan would start with turning Daniel Hannan into their Derek Hatton. Expel him for bringing the party into disrepute and then use the ensuing drama to disown all of the nonsense positions he has given credence to. Into the bargain a lot of the nutters will walk out in sympathy which will leave behind a more cohesive party able to weather the oncoming storm due to the inevitable Exit from Brexit.

However, he at least dares to say he believes in PR. The Tories could do with many more. After all, if Labour re-gains Scotland, it may go back to getting 50% of the UK seats on 38% of the vote.

PR would probably lead to separate Mogg & Bone and Clarke/Patten/Soubry/Heseltine parties. Except that there might be some atheists on the moderate R of politics, the latter could call itself a ... Christian Democrat Party?

AlastairMeeks · July 2017

Melanie Phillips - yes, really - has written everything that needs to be said about Charlie Gard's case:

http://www.melaniephillips.com/cruel-ignorant-campaign/

Scrapheap_as_was · July 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
One word for Mr. Conte.

Subtle.
I've been giving Mr Conte subtlety lessons.

On LFC TV they had a stat the other day that was amazing.

Last season Harry Kane scored more goals than Alvaro Morato has scored in his entire career.

PS - Are you going to set up a PB fantasy football league this season?

It would seen you've done a good job.

'Re fantasy footie. Yup will do when next home. Man city are doing the job themselves though it seems!!

DecrepitJohnL · July 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
One word for Mr. Conte.

Subtle.
I've been giving Mr Conte subtlety lessons.

On LFC TV they had a stat the other day that was amazing.

Last season Harry Kane scored more goals than Alvaro Morato has scored in his entire career.

PS - Are you going to set up a PB fantasy football league this season?

Good stat. Is it true?

tlg86 · July 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
Melanie Phillips - yes, really - has written everything that needs to be said about Charlie Gard's case:

http://www.melaniephillips.com/cruel-ignorant-campaign/

Yes, very much on the money. Always a difficult judgement to make, but I wonder if the media should think twice about giving such a case air time. Lots of parents have to make this agonizing decision, why give this case any more attention than others?

Morris_Dancer · July 2017

Mr. 86, no. There have been a few more real safety cars this year due to, especially early on, reliability being a bit wonky. [There was also an unnecessary one in Azerbaijan to make the race more interesting, which led to a farce].

On debris, that's uncommon in Hungary due to not many close barriers and the field usually becoming strung out.

There aren't too many bets I try to look out for every season, because things change a lot. Safety cars not coming out in Hungary/Malaysia (the latter leaves the calendar after this year) is an exception.

Jet · July 2017

So in 2019 the free movement of British citizens to the remaining part of the EU will end, except for the 7 million Brits who either hold or are entitled to an Irish passport. They probably include around 70 MPs. All right for some!

The Tory media coverage is focusing on stopping those continental fuzzy-wuzzy types, especially Poles, from coming here - playing for the UKIP vote - which for patently obvious reasons is unlikely to happen.

Cyclefree · July 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
Melanie Phillips - yes, really - has written everything that needs to be said about Charlie Gard's case:

http://www.melaniephillips.com/cruel-ignorant-campaign/

Indeed she has. A very sad case. Emotion based on ignorance can be dangerous.

rkrkrk · July 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. 86, no. There have been a few more real safety cars this year due to, especially early on, reliability being a bit wonky. [There was also an unnecessary one in Azerbaijan to make the race more interesting, which led to a farce].

On debris, that's uncommon in Hungary due to not many close barriers and the field usually becoming strung out.

There aren't too many bets I try to look out for every season, because things change a lot. Safety cars not coming out in Hungary/Malaysia (the latter leaves the calendar after this year) is an exception.

Well I'm with you for a tenner. Fingers crossed!

calum · July 2017

A Brexit story?
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/890489316081840129

Gadfly · July 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
Melanie Phillips - yes, really - has written everything that needs to be said about Charlie Gard's case:

http://www.melaniephillips.com/cruel-ignorant-campaign/

A very impressive summary indeed.

Alice_Aforethought · July 2017

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Melanie Phillips - yes, really - has written everything that needs to be said about Charlie Gard's case:

http://www.melaniephillips.com/cruel-ignorant-campaign/
Indeed she has. A very sad case. Emotion based on ignorance can be dangerous.

I cannot imagine anything likelier to unhinge a parent than the thought that your tiny child needs to die.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2017

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
One word for Mr. Conte.

Subtle.
I've been giving Mr Conte subtlety lessons.

On LFC TV they had a stat the other day that was amazing.

Last season Harry Kane scored more goals than Alvaro Morato has scored in his entire career.

PS - Are you going to set up a PB fantasy football league this season?
Good stat. Is it true?

Nearly true. Reckon it would have been true if Harry Kane hadn't been injured last season.

FrancisUrquhart · July 2017

'Disgusting and astonishing': how do the UK's top 1% view tax avoidance?

https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/jul/27/disgusting-astonishing-how-do-uks-top-1-view-tax-avoidance-voices-of-the-one-percent

I know, I don't know how the guardian sleep at night.

rkrkrk · July 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
One word for Mr. Conte.

Subtle.
I've been giving Mr Conte subtlety lessons.

On LFC TV they had a stat the other day that was amazing.

Last season Harry Kane scored more goals than Alvaro Morato has scored in his entire career.

PS - Are you going to set up a PB fantasy football league this season?
Good stat. Is it true?
Nearly true. Reckon it would have been true if Harry Kane hadn't been injured last season.

What's particularly amazing to me is Kane is actually 9 months younger...

AndyJS · July 2017

O/T

Two new articles from one of the best essayists of our time, Theodore Dalrymple:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/07/27/joanna-dennehy-call-underworld/
http://takimag.com/article/everyday_snowflakes_theodore_dalrymple/print#axzz4nr54gYj1

TheScreamingEagles · July 2017

NSFW

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/890323536979644416

Casino_Royale · July 2017

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.

I did a thousand-yard stare out of my train window for almost 10 minutes last night when I read about that.

Cyclefree · July 2017

Anyway and completely off topic, my news - and the reason I have largely been absent from PB and will likely be for a while - is that I have after 34 years in the industry and nearly 14 years in my current job (which has been relentless hard work) decided to take a break - a sabbatical from full-time employment, at least for now.

Not an easy decision to take but the right one. I want to get my health back on track, to live a more balanced and relaxed life, spend times with those I love and enjoy - as I did the other day - the simple pleasures of paddling in the sea in sunshine followed by a delicious crab sandwich and later the joys of a flaming sunset over the coast.

I shall be mostly in the Lakes and Canada for much of the next few months and will then be reappearing with the investigations consultancy I have been planning for a while. And I shall be doing some teaching/training/mentoring and continuing with my "The Only Way is Ethics" series of talks. If the City's moral behaviour does not improve, it won't be for want of trying on my part!

I am I confess a little apprehensive about embarking on the self-employed life but also quite excited too. And I may surprise myself. No going gently into that good night for me! I have my first retainer already so I won't be - quite yet - sitting outside Morrisons with a dog at the end of a piece of string begging......

I may even have a bit of time for some PB articles, despite politics being really quite unappealing at present.

Sometimes you just have to take risks.

Anorak · July 2017

Alice_Aforethought said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Melanie Phillips - yes, really - has written everything that needs to be said about Charlie Gard's case:

http://www.melaniephillips.com/cruel-ignorant-campaign/
Indeed she has. A very sad case. Emotion based on ignorance can be dangerous.
I cannot imagine anything likelier to unhinge a parent than the thought that your tiny child needs to die.

Indeed. Incidentally, the link is bust as her whole site is now down.

rkrkrk · July 2017

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
I did a thousand-yard stare out of my train window for almost 10 minutes last night when I read about that.

Pardon my ignorance - but what has this man done that he is so unpopular on pb.com?

Casino_Royale · July 2017

Cyclefree said:
Anyway and completely off topic, my news - and the reason I have largely been absent from PB and will likely be for a while - is that I have after 34 years in the industry and nearly 14 years in my current job (which has been relentless hard work) decided to take a break - a sabbatical from full-time employment, at least for now.

Not an easy decision to take but the right one. I want to get my health back on track, to live a more balanced and relaxed life, spend times with those I love and enjoy - as I did the other day - the simple pleasures of paddling in the sea in sunshine followed by a delicious crab sandwich and later the joys of a flaming sunset over the coast.

I shall be mostly in the Lakes and Canada for much of the next few months and will then be reappearing with the investigations consultancy I have been planning for a while. And I shall be doing some teaching/training/mentoring and continuing with my "The Only Way is Ethics" series of talks. If the City's moral behaviour does not improve, it won't be for want of trying on my part!

I am I confess a little apprehensive about embarking on the self-employed life but also quite excited too. And I may surprise myself. No going gently into that good night for me! I have my first retainer already so I won't be - quite yet - sitting outside Morrisons with a dog at the end of a piece of string begging......

I may even have a bit of time for some PB articles, despite politics being really quite unappealing at present.

Sometimes you just have to take risks.

Aw, good for you, Cyclefree. That sounds lovely. And you deserve a rest and a bit of a break.

Enjoy it.

Morris_Dancer · July 2017

Best of luck, Miss Cyclefree. Hope you have a nice time on the other side of the Atlantic.

rkrkrk · July 2017

Cyclefree said:
Anyway and completely off topic, my news - and the reason I have largely been absent from PB and will likely be for a while - is that I have after 34 years in the industry and nearly 14 years in my current job (which has been relentless hard work) decided to take a break - a sabbatical from full-time employment, at least for now.

Not an easy decision to take but the right one. I want to get my health back on track, to live a more balanced and relaxed life, spend times with those I love and enjoy - as I did the other day - the simple pleasures of paddling in the sea in sunshine followed by a delicious crab sandwich and later the joys of a flaming sunset over the coast.

I shall be mostly in the Lakes and Canada for much of the next few months and will then be reappearing with the investigations consultancy I have been planning for a while. And I shall be doing some teaching/training/mentoring and continuing with my "The Only Way is Ethics" series of talks. If the City's moral behaviour does not improve, it won't be for want of trying on my part!

I am I confess a little apprehensive about embarking on the self-employed life but also quite excited too. And I may surprise myself. No going gently into that good night for me! I have my first retainer already so I won't be - quite yet - sitting outside Morrisons with a dog at the end of a piece of string begging......

I may even have a bit of time for some PB articles, despite politics being really quite unappealing at present.

Sometimes you just have to take risks.

Best of luck!

Cyclefree · July 2017

Alice_Aforethought said:

Cyclefree said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Melanie Phillips - yes, really - has written everything that needs to be said about Charlie Gard's case:

http://www.melaniephillips.com/cruel-ignorant-campaign/
Indeed she has. A very sad case. Emotion based on ignorance can be dangerous.
I cannot imagine anything likelier to unhinge a parent than the thought that your tiny child needs to die.

I was referring to the emotion of the supporters not the poor parents. They are in a special sort of hell and one can only have sympathy for them. Thinking that your child, however old they are, may die does drive you mad. Believe me, I know.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2017

Cyclefree said:
Anyway and completely off topic, my news - and the reason I have largely been absent from PB and will likely be for a while - is that I have after 34 years in the industry and nearly 14 years in my current job (which has been relentless hard work) decided to take a break - a sabbatical from full-time employment, at least for now.

Not an easy decision to take but the right one. I want to get my health back on track, to live a more balanced and relaxed life, spend times with those I love and enjoy - as I did the other day - the simple pleasures of paddling in the sea in sunshine followed by a delicious crab sandwich and later the joys of a flaming sunset over the coast.

I shall be mostly in the Lakes and Canada for much of the next few months and will then be reappearing with the investigations consultancy I have been planning for a while. And I shall be doing some teaching/training/mentoring and continuing with my "The Only Way is Ethics" series of talks. If the City's moral behaviour does not improve, it won't be for want of trying on my part!

I am I confess a little apprehensive about embarking on the self-employed life but also quite excited too. And I may surprise myself. No going gently into that good night for me! I have my first retainer already so I won't be - quite yet - sitting outside Morrisons with a dog at the end of a piece of string begging......

I may even have a bit of time for some PB articles, despite politics being really quite unappealing at present.

Sometimes you just have to take risks.

Enjoy Canada and well I can't imagine why you'd want to give up supervising/regulating people who work in financial services

CarlottaVance · July 2017

Spectator on Chicken:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/07/stop-playing-chicken-with-britains-free-trade-future/

Casino_Royale · July 2017

rkrkrk said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
I did a thousand-yard stare out of my train window for almost 10 minutes last night when I read about that.
Pardon my ignorance - but what has this man done that he is so unpopular on pb.com?

Reading (all of) his entry on Wikipedia is a good start.

AlastairMeeks · July 2017

Cyclefree said:
Anyway and completely off topic, my news - and the reason I have largely been absent from PB and will likely be for a while - is that I have after 34 years in the industry and nearly 14 years in my current job (which has been relentless hard work) decided to take a break - a sabbatical from full-time employment, at least for now.

Not an easy decision to take but the right one. I want to get my health back on track, to live a more balanced and relaxed life, spend times with those I love and enjoy - as I did the other day - the simple pleasures of paddling in the sea in sunshine followed by a delicious crab sandwich and later the joys of a flaming sunset over the coast.

I shall be mostly in the Lakes and Canada for much of the next few months and will then be reappearing with the investigations consultancy I have been planning for a while. And I shall be doing some teaching/training/mentoring and continuing with my "The Only Way is Ethics" series of talks. If the City's moral behaviour does not improve, it won't be for want of trying on my part!

I am I confess a little apprehensive about embarking on the self-employed life but also quite excited too. And I may surprise myself. No going gently into that good night for me! I have my first retainer already so I won't be - quite yet - sitting outside Morrisons with a dog at the end of a piece of string begging......

I may even have a bit of time for some PB articles, despite politics being really quite unappealing at present.

Sometimes you just have to take risks.

I had noted your absence and wondered. I'm glad it's such good news. Keep us posted, @SeanT style, on your travels. If you aren't consuming larks' tongues in aspic while staring majestically across Derwent, we will all be disappointed.

Morris_Dancer · July 2017

Just as an aside, I'd going to be quite peeved if there's a safety car now.

I'll assess the other potential early bets I was looking at a bit later. Hmm. Reading an article, linked below, which cites Hamilton's five wins. Good, but he only had one of the last three. Rosberg should've had one but had unlucky safety car timing, and I think Vettel got the other.

Does suggest that Bottas/Vettel might have a reasonable chance. Anyway, got to do a spot of work, then I'll contemplate the odds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40722930

TheScreamingEagles · July 2017

rkrkrk said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
I did a thousand-yard stare out of my train window for almost 10 minutes last night when I read about that.
Pardon my ignorance - but what has this man done that he is so unpopular on pb.com?

This is the sort of thing Stewart Jackson does, he used to post on PB, and he used to post in a similar vein.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3800700/grumpy-ex-tory-mp-stewart-jackson-launches-tirade-of-abuse-at-former-constituent-calling-him-a-pillock-and-a-thick-chav/

JosiasJessop · July 2017

Good luck, Ms Free. It sounds as if you've well deserved a bit of a breather.

AlastairMeeks · July 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Just as an aside, I'd going to be quite peeved if there's a safety car now.

I'll assess the other potential early bets I was looking at a bit later. Hmm. Reading an article, linked below, which cites Hamilton's five wins. Good, but he only had one of the last three. Rosberg should've had one but had unlucky safety car timing, and I think Vettel got the other.

Does suggest that Bottas/Vettel might have a reasonable chance. Anyway, got to do a spot of work, then I'll contemplate the odds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40722930

The weather in Hungary today is temperate (all my Hungarian friends have been posting pictures of rainbows on Facebook) but I understand it's going to warm up after tomorrow and be scorching for the next week or so.

I have no idea how that affects the race, if at all. But it will make for a nice holiday for me.

FF43 · July 2017

For those interested in trade policy, the US Trade Dept have issued what they see as barriers to US international trade with a major section on the European Union. This gives us a clue of what they will be looking for in a US/UK trade deal. Needless to say it goes beyond chlorinated chicken. They really dislike a lot of the EU trade regulation, particularly on chemicals certification, animal welfare, food safety and nuclear oversight. My take is that the most likely version of a UK/US trade deal would be incompatible with a UK/EU PTA including chemicals and foodstuffs. The EU might not be interested in a PTA with us that excludes those things.

Either way there is going to be a standoff on nuclear technologies. The US Senate has to approve the UK use of US nuclear technologies, while it will be difficult to continue nuclear power generation and waste management without a renegotiation containing parts of Euratom.

In general it looks like we will have to decide whether to be dictated to by the USA or the EU. I would suggest the second is more in our interests, for various reasons.

The report also indicates the barriers to trade with the EU that we are likely to face from the outside, particularly on services.

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/reports/2017/NTE/2017 NTE.pdf#page=147

williamglenn · July 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

rkrkrk said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
I did a thousand-yard stare out of my train window for almost 10 minutes last night when I read about that.
Pardon my ignorance - but what has this man done that he is so unpopular on pb.com?
This is the sort of thing Stewart Jackson does, he used to post on PB, and he used to post in a similar vein.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3800700/grumpy-ex-tory-mp-stewart-jackson-launches-tirade-of-abuse-at-former-constituent-calling-him-a-pillock-and-a-thick-chav/

Do he and David Davis share the same taxidermist?

Morris_Dancer · July 2017

Mr. Meeks, it's possible it'll make the engines hot and bothered, but I suspect the tyres might suffer more. A little cooler would be nice, but it's still better than rain.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2017

So Brexit will be delivered by David Davis, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, Boris Johnson, and Stewart Jackson.

If that doesn't fill Leavers to the brim with girlish glee, I'm not sure what will.

rkrkrk · July 2017

Casino_Royale said:

rkrkrk said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
I did a thousand-yard stare out of my train window for almost 10 minutes last night when I read about that.
Pardon my ignorance - but what has this man done that he is so unpopular on pb.com?
Reading (all of) his entry on Wikipedia is a good start.

I had a glance - didn't seem that bad tbh. Bit of expenses scandal (which MP doesn't have a bit of that these days), editing your own wikipedia (faux pas), randomly criticising a member of public.

He doesn't seem the most level-headed of politicians but compared to say Liam Fox, David Tredinnick, Grant Shapps...

TheScreamingEagles · July 2017

rkrkrk said:

Casino_Royale said:

rkrkrk said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:
Stewart Jackson's appointment as CoS for David Davis shows the paucity of talents within the government, and Davis' own unsuitability to be PM.

There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
I did a thousand-yard stare out of my train window for almost 10 minutes last night when I read about that.
Pardon my ignorance - but what has this man done that he is so unpopular on pb.com?
Reading (all of) his entry on Wikipedia is a good start.
I had a glance - didn't seem that bad tbh. Bit of expenses scandal (which MP doesn't have a bit of that these days), editing your own wikipedia (faux pas), randomly criticising a member of public.

He doesn't seem the most level-headed of politicians but compared to say Liam Fox, David Tredinnick, Grant Shapps...

Grant Shapps, the only Tory Chairman* to win a majority in the last 25 years**.

*Well Co-Chairman.

**He had Dave's leadership and George's magnficient stewardship of the economy to sell to the country, not surprising he oversaw a Tory majority.

Carolus_Rex · July 2017

Cyclefree said:
Anyway and completely off topic, my news - and the reason I have largely been absent from PB and will likely be for a while - is that I have after 34 years in the industry and nearly 14 years in my current job (which has been relentless hard work) decided to take a break - a sabbatical from full-time employment, at least for now.

Not an easy decision to take but the right one. I want to get my health back on track, to live a more balanced and relaxed life, spend times with those I love and enjoy - as I did the other day - the simple pleasures of paddling in the sea in sunshine followed by a delicious crab sandwich and later the joys of a flaming sunset over the coast.

I shall be mostly in the Lakes and Canada for much of the next few months and will then be reappearing with the investigations consultancy I have been planning for a while. And I shall be doing some teaching/training/mentoring and continuing with my "The Only Way is Ethics" series of talks. If the City's moral behaviour does not improve, it won't be for want of trying on my part!

I am I confess a little apprehensive about embarking on the self-employed life but also quite excited too. And I may surprise myself. No going gently into that good night for me! I have my first retainer already so I won't be - quite yet - sitting outside Morrisons with a dog at the end of a piece of string begging......

I may even have a bit of time for some PB articles, despite politics being really quite unappealing at present.

Sometimes you just have to take risks.

I'm returning from the Internet equivalent of Little Gidding to say Good Luck.

A friend of mine did exactly what you are doing a few years ago. We all thought he was bonkers, but he hasn't looked back since.

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