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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: End of term review

As Westminster heads on its summer holidays, Keiran is joined by Polling Matters regulars Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to review the year-to-date.
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Whoever takes over as Tory leader/PM will find it very difficult to avoid an election during 2018. By then Brexit will look a shambles, votes will be lost in Parliament as a weak Government struggles and the economy will suffer.
I think the May government won't lose many votes, because it will very likely withdraw controversial items before that stage. Mostly this will be a government too weak to implement much or to resolve its own cabinet conflicts.
I think the crisis will come with the autumn budget. Hammond seems increasingly concerned with flaccid economic performance adversely affecting the national finances, and I think his restorative measures will be a combination of hairshirt austerity and tax rises.
I think that you are right, if there is a challenge, May is likely not to run. I think she would back Rudd, as thdy seem politically close, and as far as it is possible to judge, a certain personal friendship. Rudd is May, but with the addition of listening skills, essential when brokering compromises in cabinet or in international affairs.
Sighs.
They are building billion dollar battery factories in Europe and China.. as well as refocusing their motorsport activities:
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/130904
Don't tell Morris Dancer, but F1 might be going all electric in five years' time.....
There is no question for which the answer is Stewart Jackson.
who is the MP for Peterborough ?
HMG needs to be putting in place measures which tackle our appalling trade imbalances
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40210788
One of the few Conservative losses this year that I could cheer.
I am fairly sure his budget will meet with a response similar to your own, and the conflics will become manifest.
"I am standing for re-election as the Conservative Party Candidate in the General Election on Thursday 8th June."
"Email stewart.jackson.mp@parliament.uk"
The podcast hiatus almost exactly coincides with a four week gap in F1 (after Hungary). Quelle horreur!
His reaction to his loss has not done him credit.
cough Osborne cough
Hammond has shown in his attitude to public sector pay and with the clearing out of "no tax rises" from the manifesto how his mind works. He clearly anticipates the economy worsening and will not want to loosen the purse strings. We may well get that promised "punishment budget".
During which we either have a lame duck, or interim PM. It's not a path the country should want to go down. Even worse, if the nature of Brexit became an issue in the leadership election which would basically mean no meaningful negotiations for the period. The EU would probably walk out as the UK would not be able to negotiate in good faith.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2016
There could be another election called tomorrow or next month or the one after and a new leader installed before conference.
My feeling is May will return from hols with renewed strength. You don't get to be PM unless you have a certain strength of nerve and will.
But who knows? She may be inclined to fight on but her husband persuades her that its not worth the stress and strain on her health.
Subtle.
Going by Wikipedia reports (imperfect, I know) there have been four races with a safety car from 2004. Whilst two of these were in the last five years, since then the VSC has been introduced, further decreasing the chance of one appearing.
I'm not saying it's a dead cert, but odds of 1.79 are too long.
Edited extra bit: and the weather forecast is for it to be dry, as suggested by your note on high temperatures.
On LFC TV they had a stat the other day that was amazing.
Last season Harry Kane scored more goals than Alvaro Morato has scored in his entire career.
PS - Are you going to set up a PB fantasy football league this season?
In any case, the rump Conservative Party would be left smaller than the expellees.
In that respect, the Hungaroring is perhaps more likely to have a safety car as it's not the longest of laps.
PR would probably lead to separate Mogg & Bone and Clarke/Patten/Soubry/Heseltine parties. Except that there might be some atheists on the moderate R of politics, the latter could call itself a ... Christian Democrat Party?
http://www.melaniephillips.com/cruel-ignorant-campaign/
'Re fantasy footie. Yup will do when next home. Man city are doing the job themselves though it seems!!
On debris, that's uncommon in Hungary due to not many close barriers and the field usually becoming strung out.
There aren't too many bets I try to look out for every season, because things change a lot. Safety cars not coming out in Hungary/Malaysia (the latter leaves the calendar after this year) is an exception.
The Tory media coverage is focusing on stopping those continental fuzzy-wuzzy types, especially Poles, from coming here - playing for the UKIP vote - which for patently obvious reasons is unlikely to happen.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/890489316081840129
https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/jul/27/disgusting-astonishing-how-do-uks-top-1-view-tax-avoidance-voices-of-the-one-percent
I know, I don't know how the guardian sleep at night.
Two new articles from one of the best essayists of our time, Theodore Dalrymple:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/07/27/joanna-dennehy-call-underworld/
http://takimag.com/article/everyday_snowflakes_theodore_dalrymple/print#axzz4nr54gYj1
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/890323536979644416
Not an easy decision to take but the right one. I want to get my health back on track, to live a more balanced and relaxed life, spend times with those I love and enjoy - as I did the other day - the simple pleasures of paddling in the sea in sunshine followed by a delicious crab sandwich and later the joys of a flaming sunset over the coast.
I shall be mostly in the Lakes and Canada for much of the next few months and will then be reappearing with the investigations consultancy I have been planning for a while. And I shall be doing some teaching/training/mentoring and continuing with my "The Only Way is Ethics" series of talks. If the City's moral behaviour does not improve, it won't be for want of trying on my part!
I am I confess a little apprehensive about embarking on the self-employed life but also quite excited too. And I may surprise myself. No going gently into that good night for me! I have my first retainer already so I won't be - quite yet - sitting outside Morrisons with a dog at the end of a piece of string begging......
I may even have a bit of time for some PB articles, despite politics being really quite unappealing at present.
Sometimes you just have to take risks.
Enjoy it.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/07/stop-playing-chicken-with-britains-free-trade-future/
I'll assess the other potential early bets I was looking at a bit later. Hmm. Reading an article, linked below, which cites Hamilton's five wins. Good, but he only had one of the last three. Rosberg should've had one but had unlucky safety car timing, and I think Vettel got the other.
Does suggest that Bottas/Vettel might have a reasonable chance. Anyway, got to do a spot of work, then I'll contemplate the odds.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40722930
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3800700/grumpy-ex-tory-mp-stewart-jackson-launches-tirade-of-abuse-at-former-constituent-calling-him-a-pillock-and-a-thick-chav/
I have no idea how that affects the race, if at all. But it will make for a nice holiday for me.
Either way there is going to be a standoff on nuclear technologies. The US Senate has to approve the UK use of US nuclear technologies, while it will be difficult to continue nuclear power generation and waste management without a renegotiation containing parts of Euratom.
In general it looks like we will have to decide whether to be dictated to by the USA or the EU. I would suggest the second is more in our interests, for various reasons.
The report also indicates the barriers to trade with the EU that we are likely to face from the outside, particularly on services.
https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/reports/2017/NTE/2017 NTE.pdf#page=147
If that doesn't fill Leavers to the brim with girlish glee, I'm not sure what will.
He doesn't seem the most level-headed of politicians but compared to say Liam Fox, David Tredinnick, Grant Shapps...
*Well Co-Chairman.
**He had Dave's leadership and George's magnficient stewardship of the economy to sell to the country, not surprising he oversaw a Tory majority.
A friend of mine did exactly what you are doing a few years ago. We all thought he was bonkers, but he hasn't looked back since.