Blimey. This is like one of those graphs showing the GOP will never win again..
Also, by 2021 the choice will be Rejoin v Stay Out.
We may well be in the Euro in my lifetime.
I hope you have many years ahead of you - I also wonder if you might outlast the Euro.....currency unions without fiscal transfers tend not to last....
Blimey. This is like one of those graphs showing the GOP will never win again..
Also, by 2021 the choice will be Rejoin v Stay Out.
We may well be in the Euro in my lifetime.
I hope you have many years ahead of you - I also wonder if you might outlast the Euro.....currency unions without fiscal transfers tend not to last....
I am no fan of the Euro. So in a way I hope you are right, but the chaos across Europe of a collapse in the euro...
Steve Bullock worked at the UK Representation to the EU from 2010-2014 where he negotiated several EU regulations for the UK in European Council working groups. He has also worked for the European Commission and the Department for International Development’s Europe Department. The UK in a Changing Europe assisted with the commissioning of this piece
Steve Bullock worked at the UK Representation to the EU from 2010-2014 where he negotiated several EU regulations for the UK in European Council working groups. He has also worked for the European Commission and the Department for International Development’s Europe Department. The UK in a Changing Europe assisted with the commissioning of this piece
The problem I had with this piece is that it tends to suggest inside knowledge in the header, but the truth is that he hasn't been on the 'inside' in a few years and only has background knowledge rather than the inside knowledge the article tends to suggest.
Blimey. This is like one of those graphs showing the GOP will never win again..
Also, by 2021 the choice will be Rejoin v Stay Out.
We may well be in the Euro in my lifetime.
And it wouldn't have been possible without Leave winning last year. Marvellous.
There were only ever two honest positions - in the Euro, or out of the EU.
One of Cummings' (correct) insights years ago was that if you frame it like that, you can get a majority to vote for the Euro. Brexit has ensured that it will indeed be framed like that, in circumstances where the alternative is an unattractive as possible.
Back on topic, or at least one part of it.... The Labour Party are hopelessly split over the EU, as Umunna`s tweet shows. Labour politicians are all promoting their own line for their own particular audience, and hoping that people believe that this is what the next Labour government (???) is committed to. They did this during the general election campaign, and got away with it. But it cannot go on for ever. Or can it?
White Wednesday is a parallel. Some of Labour supported ERM entry and supported staying in. Others didn't. Then when we crashed out, they aligned to portray it as a disaster they'd have skilfully avoided and reaped the political benefit.
Arguably the same happened to their disadvantage with the GFC, except that Labour's inept regulation and chronic overborrowing made it likelier and worse.
I'm surprised you point as this as a failing though. You are a LibDem supporter as I recall, a party whose whole electoral pitched is based on being all things to all swing voters - homophobic when helpful against Peter Tatchell, and so on - if indeed being anything at all. Just the other day we were discussing what would be good policies for the LibDems, a sure sign that they've no principles to instruct them.
Pah, if anything the Lib Dems are the most principled of the main parties. Liberalism is a more prescriptive ideology than socialism or conservatism. That the Lib Dems have often fudged policies in order to avoid scaring the voters is hardly a cardinal offence - Labour and the Tories often look like they barely know what their principles are.
Take Europe, for example. The Liberals and then Lib Dems have maintained a consistent position over a period of more than half a century. Look at the two main parties' positioning over that period. They've been all over the place!
I refer you to Maynard Keynes' comment on opinions and facts.
If something, such as Europe, is always the answer to everything, that's not a 'position', it's a nostrum.
Back on topic, or at least one part of it.... The Labour Party are hopelessly split over the EU, as Umunna`s tweet shows. Labour politicians are all promoting their own line for their own particular audience, and hoping that people believe that this is what the next Labour government (???) is committed to. They did this during the general election campaign, and got away with it. But it cannot go on for ever. Or can it?
White Wednesday is a parallel. Some of Labour supported ERM entry and supported staying in. Others didn't. Then when we crashed out, they aligned to portray it as a disaster they'd have skilfully avoided and reaped the political benefit.
Arguably the same happened to their disadvantage with the GFC, except that Labour's inept regulation and chronic overborrowing made it likelier and worse.
I'm surprised you point as this as a failing though. You are a LibDem supporter as I recall, a party whose whole electoral pitched is based on being all things to all swing voters - homophobic when helpful against Peter Tatchell, and so on - if indeed being anything at all. Just the other day we were discussing what would be good policies for the LibDems, a sure sign that they've no principles to instruct them.
The old 'its a straight choice' slur that keeps coming out (unintended pun). Its a straight choice and its a two horse race have been used on thousands of leaflets for their obvious meaning. Anyone who sees a homophobic message is there already and doesn't need the message. FYI I was an agent for an openly gay candidate against a (presumably) straight candidate (wife & children) and used that very message in most of the leaflets. Was I campaigning for the opposition?
And, the Bermondsey by-election was one of the most entertaining contests of my lifetime (Putney 1997 was great fun as well).
"Well we'd be endangering established trading networks, our legal position will be well in question, we'd be tossed out into a hostile world, and as it is we're perched on the edge of the Continent. What about our security? Should we use their currency? What about all the compatibility of all the stuff we buy? It's all such a huge doubt, it'll ever work. You sure you still want to do this declaration thing on July 4th George W?"
There were only ever two honest positions - in the Euro, or out of the EU. Take your pick - one is democratic, one technocratic.
Not at all. That's a false choice. Being in the EU and out of the Euro has implications that might make us decide that we would prefer either being out of the EU or in the Euro, but being in the EU and not in the Euro is a viable option that nearly half the country wanted.
It's the same as saying the only honest positions for Scotland are full independence or the complete integration into England.
"Well we'd be endangering established trading networks, our legal position will be well in question, we'd be tossed out into a hostile world, and as it is we're perched on the edge of the Continent. What about our security? Should we use their currency? What about all the compatibility of all the stuff we buy? It's all such a huge doubt, it'll ever work. You sure you still want to do this declaration thing on July 4th George W?"
Blimey. Even I don't think it will end up with the burning of London at the hands of the EU army.
"Well we'd be endangering established trading networks, our legal position will be well in question, we'd be tossed out into a hostile world, and as it is we're perched on the edge of the Continent. What about our security? Should we use their currency? What about all the compatibility of all the stuff we buy? It's all such a huge doubt, it'll ever work. You sure you still want to do this declaration thing on July 4th George W?"
Blimey. Even I don't think it will end up with the burning of London at the hands of the EU army.
Well that's good at least. We've established you've actually got a limit (!).
Not quite sure if the Thames can act as the Delaware with Gove in a boat crossing it mind!
Back on topic, or at least one part of it.... The Labour Party are hopelessly split over the EU, as Umunna`s tweet shows. Labour politicians are all promoting their own line for their own particular audience, and hoping that people believe that this is what the next Labour government (???) is committed to. They did this during the general election campaign, and got away with it. But it cannot go on for ever. Or can it?
White Wednesday is a parallel. Some of Labour supported ERM entry and supported staying in. Others didn't. Then when we crashed out, they aligned to portray it as a disaster they'd have skilfully avoided and reaped the political benefit.
Arguably the same happened to their disadvantage with the GFC, except that Labour's inept regulation and chronic overborrowing made it likelier and worse.
I'm surprised you point as this as a failing though. You are a LibDem supporter as I recall, a party whose whole electoral pitched is based on being all things to all swing voters - homophobic when helpful against Peter Tatchell, and so on - if indeed being anything at all. Just the other day we were discussing what would be good policies for the LibDems, a sure sign that they've no principles to instruct them.
Pah, if anything the Lib Dems are the most principled of the main parties. Liberalism is a more prescriptive ideology than socialism or conservatism. That the Lib Dems have often fudged policies in order to avoid scaring the voters is hardly a cardinal offence - Labour and the Tories often look like they barely know what their principles are.
Take Europe, for example. The Liberals and then Lib Dems have maintained a consistent position over a period of more than half a century. Look at the two main parties' positioning over that period. They've been all over the place!
I refer you to Maynard Keynes' comment on opinions and facts.
If something, such as Europe, is always the answer to everything, that's not a 'position', it's a nostrum.
Is your criticism of the Lib Dems that we're unprincipled charlatans or that we're unreasonable ideologues? Or are you just havering?
Of all the crap that US exports, chlorinated chicken isn't exactly even on the scale. All those goods packed with fructose corn syrup are far worse for ones health.
Chlorinated chicken has been added to the long list of items, just below a female Doctor Who, where I have found myself so far unable to care about either way.
A good source of political puns however: Brexit Chickens come home to roost; Headless chickens at DExEU; Playing chicken with our futures; Time to chicken out.
Chlorination Chicken is my favourite.
Will they arrange for the successor to May to be chlorinated?
Dolly Parton remix:
Chlorine, chlorine, chlorine, chlorine I'm begging of you please don't wash my chicken
Didn't we hear almost the exact opposite just 6 days ago? Now freedom of movement will end in 2019, when previously it was going to apply for years more to come....
My takeaway is that the newspapers have no idea what is going to happen....
Didn't we hear almost the exact opposite just 6 days ago? Now freedom of movement will end in 2019, when previously it was going to apply for years more to come....
My takeaway is that the newspapers have no idea what is going to happen....
They are just reporting what the politicians are telling them
Didn't we hear almost the exact opposite just 6 days ago? Now freedom of movement will end in 2019, when previously it was going to apply for years more to come....
My takeaway is that the newspapers have no idea what is going to happen....
They are just reporting what the politicians are telling them
Oh...
So many kites are being flown at the same time that the sky appears almost completely black.
Didn't we hear almost the exact opposite just 6 days ago? Now freedom of movement will end in 2019, when previously it was going to apply for years more to come....
My takeaway is that the newspapers have no idea what is going to happen....
They are just reporting what the politicians are telling them
Oh...
Presumably the EU would like FOM to continue during a transition period... So I guess this is one issue where the UK can decide?
Polish it up a bit and that video would make for a great PPB.
The thing is, the polish is what costs the big bucks and takes all the time.
They could have easily written the script for that on Monday, filmed it on Tuesday, edited it yesterday and had it out by this morning. Total cost - as little as a couple of grand, depending on how many involved were paid and how many were volunteers.
Judging from the number of retweets it's had already that'll be seen by at least a couple of hundred thousand people today alone (and that's just on Twitter - assuming it's on Facebook as well).
The Tories simply have no comeback to this. Their social media presence is old fashioned, their attack ads are too nerdy and worst of all, have a tendency to give their opponents free air time.
If social media is indeed the 'air war' then the Tories are being completely outclassed at the moment.
That ad says one thing to me - Momentum are already focused on fighting the next election, which could come at any time, while the Tories jostle for position to replace TMay.
If social media is indeed the 'air war' then the Tories are being completely outclassed at the moment.
However, it's the summer recess and there isn't an election due for over four years, so it doesn't really matter - the social media landscape will be very different by the time the next election rolls around.
If social media is indeed the 'air war' then the Tories are being completely outclassed at the moment.
However, it's the summer recess and there isn't an election due for over four years, so it doesn't really matter - the social media landscape will be very different by the time the next election rolls around.
The next election could happen this year (unlikely), it could easily happen in 2019 (much more likely.
A video like that Momentum one isn't designed to win over new converts. It's there to stir up the people who already believe in you and keep their juices flowing, so they're ready and willing to campaign on your behalf and talk up their leader Jezza, even when there isn't an election going on.
It's a smart video. And, as I say, the sort of social media smarts the Tories don't have an answer to right now.
If social media is indeed the 'air war' then the Tories are being completely outclassed at the moment.
However, it's the summer recess and there isn't an election due for over four years, so it doesn't really matter - the social media landscape will be very different by the time the next election rolls around.
The next election could happen this year (unlikely), it could easily happen in 2019 (much more likely.
By which time social media will be as different as it is now compared with 2015.
If social media is indeed the 'air war' then the Tories are being completely outclassed at the moment.
However, it's the summer recess and there isn't an election due for over four years, so it doesn't really matter - the social media landscape will be very different by the time the next election rolls around.
The next election could happen this year (unlikely), it could easily happen in 2019 (much more likely.
By which time social media will be as different as it is now compared with 2015.
To be honest, not a great deal has changed since 2015 in terms of the media capabilities of the main platforms, the analytics used to target individuals, the fundamentals of a good social media strategy.
Campaign tactics used by the various parties in 2015 and 2017 changed, I think largely down to the way the US Presidential election was fought. Which reinforces my point - Labour (and Momentum) are stronger tactically on social these days.
Short of a new platform coming out that blows Facebook / Twitter / Instagram dominace away between now and 2019, the only thing likely to change are the tactics used on those platforms. At the moment, Labour's tactics look light years ahead.
If social media is indeed the 'air war' then the Tories are being completely outclassed at the moment.
However, it's the summer recess and there isn't an election due for over four years, so it doesn't really matter - the social media landscape will be very different by the time the next election rolls around.
The next election could happen this year (unlikely), it could easily happen in 2019 (much more likely.
By which time social media will be as different as it is now compared with 2015.
To be honest, not a great deal has changed since 2015 in terms of the media capabilities of the main platforms, the analytics used to target individuals, the fundamentals of a good social media strategy.
Campaign tactics used by the various parties in 2015 and 2017 changed, I think largely down to the way the US Presidential election was fought. Which reinforces my point - Labour (and Momentum) are stronger tactically on social these days.
Short of a new platform coming out that blows Facebook / Twitter / Instagram dominace away between now and 2019, the only thing likely to change are the tactics used on those platforms. At the moment, Labour's tactics look light years ahead.
No more so than the Tories' did in 2015.
But why did they look that way? Because of which party exceeded expectations in each case.
Didn't we hear almost the exact opposite just 6 days ago? Now freedom of movement will end in 2019, when previously it was going to apply for years more to come....
My takeaway is that the newspapers have no idea what is going to happen....
They are just reporting what the politicians are telling them
Oh...
Presumably the EU would like FOM to continue during a transition period... So I guess this is one issue where the UK can decide?
The UK cabinet has agreed on an "implementation phase" lasting a couple of years where the current relationship would continue in some form. The EU have acknowledged the possibility in their position paper but have said that if it happened at all, it would require the UK to respect all current legal and treaty obligations, ie FoM would be required. They have also said the transition arrangements would be the last thing to be agreed, ie after EU citizen rights, exit bill, Ireland and outline of future arrangement.
As continuity is the most important objective for the UK, the EU have us locked down. We will have to agree the other stuff first before they agree things can carry on as at present.
Comments
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-eu-negotiator-europe-euratom-airline-safety-negotiations-theresa-may-worse-anyone-guessed-a7858586.html
If something, such as Europe, is always the answer to everything, that's not a 'position', it's a nostrum.
It's the same as saying the only honest positions for Scotland are full independence or the complete integration into England.
Not quite sure if the Thames can act as the Delaware with Gove in a boat crossing it mind!
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/890512963123245057
And lets not ask where Corbyn and McDonnell's kids are working.
Chlorine, chlorine, chlorine, chlorine
I'm begging of you please don't wash my chicken
The bright future to look forward to once Corbyn becomes PM.
Didn't we hear almost the exact opposite just 6 days ago?
Now freedom of movement will end in 2019, when previously it was going to apply for years more to come....
My takeaway is that the newspapers have no idea what is going to happen....
Oh...
So I guess this is one issue where the UK can decide?
They could have easily written the script for that on Monday, filmed it on Tuesday, edited it yesterday and had it out by this morning. Total cost - as little as a couple of grand, depending on how many involved were paid and how many were volunteers.
Judging from the number of retweets it's had already that'll be seen by at least a couple of hundred thousand people today alone (and that's just on Twitter - assuming it's on Facebook as well).
The Tories simply have no comeback to this. Their social media presence is old fashioned, their attack ads are too nerdy and worst of all, have a tendency to give their opponents free air time.
If social media is indeed the 'air war' then the Tories are being completely outclassed at the moment.
That ad says one thing to me - Momentum are already focused on fighting the next election, which could come at any time, while the Tories jostle for position to replace TMay.
A video like that Momentum one isn't designed to win over new converts. It's there to stir up the people who already believe in you and keep their juices flowing, so they're ready and willing to campaign on your behalf and talk up their leader Jezza, even when there isn't an election going on.
It's a smart video. And, as I say, the sort of social media smarts the Tories don't have an answer to right now.
Campaign tactics used by the various parties in 2015 and 2017 changed, I think largely down to the way the US Presidential election was fought. Which reinforces my point - Labour (and Momentum) are stronger tactically on social these days.
Short of a new platform coming out that blows Facebook / Twitter / Instagram dominace away between now and 2019, the only thing likely to change are the tactics used on those platforms. At the moment, Labour's tactics look light years ahead.
But why did they look that way? Because of which party exceeded expectations in each case.
As continuity is the most important objective for the UK, the EU have us locked down. We will have to agree the other stuff first before they agree things can carry on as at present.
How to square the circle ? Make small changes to FoM and access to Single market acceptable to both sides.
Everyone is happy. Except Hard Brexiters. But then, who cares ?