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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brace yourselves for the impending train wreck of the Brexit n

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171

    Alice_Aforethought should be made Minister of Education.
    She does make a lot of sense on this one... (first time for everything haha!)
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    The Council Tax is not necessarily unchanged after the extension. I know because mine was increased by a band after we did some work.

    It seems that if a neighbour makes a complaint that their Council Tax band is too high, given that they know yours is the same and now your house is a bit bigger, then there can be a reevaluation triggered of the example property. I forget all the finer details of how this worked, but we now have to pay more.

    Plus I have spent the last four years trying to work out which of the neighbours pulled this stunt!!!
    The Council tax band can change after an extension is built but should only be for the new owners after you move out.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    RobD said:

    Like they tried to do when abolishing the triple lock? ;)
    The triple lock is basically a bribe... there was never an contract written or unwritten that guaranteed a triple lock.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    RoyalBlue said:

    I must disagree. I don't think Russia post 1991 is very powerful; whether on a economic, cultural influence or technological basis it is continuing to decline vis a vis the West and the other BRICs. It has an ability to be uniquely destructive, but it is unable to use that power to address its fundamental weaknesses (awful demographics, commodity dependence, brain drain).

    Prioritising the armed forces fails when it bankrupts the underlying economy. This is a lesson they should have learnt from the USSR but clearly haven't.

    To your earlier point, we did prefer guns! We spent billions to maintain military influence in areas remote from our core interests, far more than our European peers. As a consequence, we went from being the largest economy in Western Europe to 3rd (and briefly 4th).
    Only up until the 1957 defence review. And the cutbacks that followed thereafter (and have pretty much continued ever since) were more a function of a loss of national self confidence than economics.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    GeoffM said:

    Oh ferchrissakes I've just got home and seen the thread title.

    Not even going to bother.

    Are we talking about anything interesting?

    War.

    To be fair to Alastair, it's one of the first of his Brexit threads in a while that's criticised the EU.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    edited July 2017
    Just one quibble on the thread headline - why the Americanism? It should be "train crash" surely?

    (Or is this required as a condition of new US trade agreement?)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238
    GeoffM said:

    Oh ferchrissakes I've just got home and seen the thread title.

    Not even going to bother.

    Are we talking about anything interesting?

    Do bother. It is a well written and balanced piece. You may not agree with all of it but it raises serious questions in an informed manner.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    Jonathan said:

    Understand the point, but associating Brexit with 1914 undermines it.

    We've had 1914, The Nazis, the Confederacy, 1930s appeasement, apartheid, and countless others by now.

    To be honest, it's water off a duck's back. Hyperbole speaks for itself.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Toms said:

    OK. We might also allow for self support, extra curricular jobs, and scholarships (my case.) The bottom line should be that one *wants to* and *is able to* pursue studies.
    30 years ago I went out with some Dutch people. At that time it was possible to go to Uni for free if they had been finanacially independent for 3 years, but it had to be paid for if aged 18.

    In practice they did National Service and worked for a couple of years before going. It seems a good system, as a conscious decision had to be for uni rather than drifting aimlessly, and a more mature outlook on life and career. I wouldnt mind seeing such a system here.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554

    The Council tax band can change after an extension is built but should only be for the new owners after you move out.

    The council messed up. As David_Evershed states there should be a flag on the council tax record saying that an improvement was made but it won't be applied until the council tax payer changes (or they reassess bands)...
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited July 2017

    Only up until the 1957 defence review. And the cutbacks that followed thereafter (and have pretty much continued ever since) were more a function of a loss of national self confidence than economics.
    I think the events of 1956 showed that how many bases, ships and planes you have doesn't matter if you are dependent on another country's good will to avoid a collapse in your currency and import shortages.

    Much of post-war British defence spending was laughably wasteful. Why did we need 3 V bomber designs?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,417
    GIN1138 said:

    Paging Sunil! :D
    Um, I prefer to ride trains that are intact, not wrecked! :lol:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    Only up until the 1957 defence review. And the cutbacks that followed thereafter (and have pretty much continued ever since) were more a function of a loss of national self confidence than economics.
    We could have sat out the Korean War, but I'm glad we didn't.

    Overall, it would make little difference to our economic performance whether we spent 2% of GDP or 4% on the armed forces.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    Only up until the 1957 defence review. And the cutbacks that followed thereafter (and have pretty much continued ever since) were more a function of a loss of national self confidence than economics.

    Would you have kept military spending approaching 10% of GDP then? What would you have done with this additional force?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Sean_F said:

    We could have sat out the Korean War, but I'm glad we didn't.

    Overall, it would make little difference to our economic performance whether we spent 2% of GDP or 4% on the armed forces.
    2% compounded over decades adds up to a lot.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    RoyalBlue said:

    2% compounded over decades adds up to a lot.
    Yes it's odd to hear this kind of argument from the kind of people who like to attribute Germany's economic success to being denied the burden of a large military.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370
    RoyalBlue said:

    2% compounded over decades adds up to a lot.
    There may well be better ways of spending that 2%, but it's very much a First World problem.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    Would you have kept military spending approaching 10% of GDP then? What would you have done with this additional force?
    Liquidated the EEC.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    Liquidated the EEC.
    You really do seek a cathartic defeat at the hands of the Europeans...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    Yes it's odd to hear this kind of argument from the kind of people who like to attribute Germany's economic success to being denied the burden of a large military.
    West Germany actually had a very impressive army.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Sean_F said:

    There may well be better ways of spending that 2%, but it's very much a First World problem.
    Sigh. Never let it be said that complacency on the part of unions AND management played a role in Britain's industrial decline.

    Ah well, at least air shows were fun!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I don't think this saga over Corbyn and student debt make much of a difference to support from young people. What could is if a viable, attractive alternative emerged to challenge Corbyn.

    I was reading Hugo Rifkind's article in the Times today (Scott_P's tweet earlier on led me that way) and one thing I was struck by, reading the comments was the antipathy they had towards young voters calling us 'children' 'snowflakes' making the usual snide 'safe space' remark. This kind of attitude isn't going to get those who are anti-Corbyn very far.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,417

    I don't think this saga over Corbyn and student debt make much of a difference to support from young people. What could is if a viable, attractive alternative emerged to challenge Corbyn.

    I was reading Hugo Rifkind's article in the Times today (Scott_P's tweet earlier on led me that way) and one thing I was struck by, reading the comments was the antipathy they had towards young voters calling us 'children' 'snowflakes' making the usual snide 'safe space' remark. This kind of attitude isn't going to get those who are anti-Corbyn very far.

    You are such a snowflake! (only kidding! :lol: )
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited July 2017
    Great essay by Mr. Meeks.
    History is not my metier, but I seem to recall from History 101 that one aspect of WW one was that mobilising an armed force was ponderous and slow (at least in Russia'a case) , gaining a kind of momentum of its own. Would our indecision and internal friction not be getting out of control?

    Anecdotally, a friend back from a German visit said a businessman there was stricken with worry over Brexit, whereas another friend, back from France, said they are just laughing at us.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370
    RoyalBlue said:

    Sigh. Never let it be said that complacency on the part of unions AND management played a role in Britain's industrial decline.

    Ah well, at least air shows were fun!
    At the same time we spent vast sums on the armed forces, we were told correctly that we had "never had it so good". By the mid-seventies, real incomes per head were double the level of 1945.

    Because the Empire went, we embraced a belief in national decline that was never justified by the facts.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    Mr Meeks - the trainwreck that is Brexit might not make the top five really bad things that politicians are getting wrong. Think about the threat of war (NK say), environment, aging, debt, overpopulation. The environment has several sub-categories that are more important than whatever happens in the EU. Perhaps they all do.

    You're right that the politicians are making a mess of what should be pretty simple in outline (the detail was always going to be a nightmare, but getting the big picture wrong is stupid).

    Incidentally, the cause of WW1 is probably the most well understood of historical themes.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    You are such a snowflake! (only kidding! :lol: )
    Ah, :) I do wear my heart of my sleeve, although in that sense I'm very similar to my mum!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    30 years ago I went out with some Dutch people. At that time it was possible to go to Uni for free if they had been finanacially independent for 3 years, but it had to be paid for if aged 18.

    In practice they did National Service and worked for a couple of years before going. It seems a good system, as a conscious decision had to be for uni rather than drifting aimlessly, and a more mature outlook on life and career. I wouldnt mind seeing such a system here.
    When I was working for a French company back in the early 90s I always preferred French, Dutch or Norwegian trainees to British ones. If you sent a non Brit to do a job and they couldn't do it they would come back after 20 minutes or half an hour and ask for help. If you sent a Brit to do it they would come back after 20 minutes and say it wasn't possible.

    British graduates going into the job market - particularly in a job that requires independent thought and getting ones hands dirty - with no previous work experience really are very poor generally. At least in comparison to their continental peers. The difference as far as I could see was national service - not necessarily military but just the fact of having to do a physical job instead of moving straight through academia to graduation.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited July 2017
    More Remoaner nonsense on here today I see. In the real world, and not the fantasy world of the Remoaners, BMW, Easyjet and Amazon have all announced expansion plans in the UK. That's particularly funny in the case of Easyjet that warned that all hell would break loose with Brexit. I love Easyjet for short European city breaks, but they really did make t*ts out of themselves over Brexit. The Remoaners give me the impression that they think everything in the EU is absolutely perfect, well this article for starters may give them cause to review their misguided thinking process:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/refugees/schulz-warning-if-italy-is-not-given-aid-by-the-eu-the-refugee-crisis-will-explode-again/

    Funny that we don't hear about such matters in the mainstream media in the UK isn't it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    You really do seek a cathartic defeat at the hands of the Europeans...
    On a serious note, defence spending of 8-9% of GDP, continuing into the 1960s and 1970s, would have given the UK strategic independence in foreign policy with an ability to mount combined land air/sea operations by itself, probably involving forces of a corps/II corps interventions, without necessarily relying on the Americans.

    It would have allowed the UK to maintain a Mediterranean fleet, as well as an Atlantic/home fleet, maintain bases in the middle east, probably in Aden, and in the Far East in Singapore/Hong Kong. And probably resulted in more regular African interventions as well. It would have kept the UK at the leading edge of aviation, ship design and missile development.

    It would have meant the UK had much more leverage over conflicts like Vietnam and Cambodia, and in Chinese relations, and a more equal voice in middle eastern oil politics.

    It would have come at the cost of healthcare and welfare.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    The mainstream media would do well to report this as well:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/poland-suggests-using-refugees-to-form-an-army-very-bad-idea/

    It just goes to show how right we were to vote for Brexit last year.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,424
    I see BMW and Amazon are obviously not readers of PB.

    Together with the CBI survey this might be an indicator of economic improvement:

    ' A shortage of industrial space is threatening to curb British manufacturing after UK businesses experienced a post-Brexit vote boom brought about by the weakened pound.

    The UK has a little over one year’s worth of industrial space left thanks to a rush to secure new or larger premises by British companies, according to new data from real estate advisers Colliers International.

    The manufacturing sector now accounts for 27pc of the industrial property market, up from 19pc in 2016, making it second only to retailers and wholesalers who account for about a third of the market.

    Bo Glowacz, senior research analyst at Colliers International, said: “Following the outcome of the European referendum, there has been stronger demand for industrial space from the manufacturing sector due to the weakening value of sterling encouraging a surge in demand for British goods.” '

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/24/britains-booming-manufacturers-threatened-squeeze-industrial/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    It is just amazing to watch the Trump presidency unfolding in the US. It looks like he is now paving the way to fire his attorney general so that he can appoint another one who will bring the Russian investigations to an end. These are extraordinary times to be living through.

    Watching C4 news on getting in from work. No friend of Trump but blimey. I think we have problems with May hunkering down in 10 Downing Street but our problems are not even close to those that the US has at the moment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    On topic, it's my view the UK should be spending (today) about 3% of GDP on defence and a further 0.5% (rough average, over 10 years) on softer stuff like international aid, if it wishes to properly fund the aspirations we have as a 2nd tier global power. I.e. a "tipping point" ally who can make a real difference, in international situations both soft and hard.

    That won't happen, of course, and wouldn't have if we'd stayed in the EU either, but we will continue to try and fudge it by puffing up our chests and figures.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    On a serious note, defence spending of 8-9% of GDP, continuing into the 1960s and 1970s, would have given the UK strategic independence in foreign policy with an ability to mount combined land air/sea operations by itself, probably involving forces of a corps/II corps interventions, without necessarily relying on the Americans.

    It would have allowed the UK to maintain a Mediterranean fleet, as well as an Atlantic/home fleet, maintain bases in the middle east, probably in Aden, and in the Far East in Singapore/Hong Kong. And probably resulted in more regular African interventions as well. It would have kept the UK at the leading edge of aviation, ship design and missile development.

    It would have meant the UK had much more leverage over conflicts like Vietnam and Cambodia, and in Chinese relations, and a more equal voice in middle eastern oil politics.

    It would have come at the cost of healthcare and welfare.
    A kind of Gaullism without the economic weight of the EEC behind it. It would have ended in tears.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    On a serious note, defence spending of 8-9% of GDP, continuing into the 1960s and 1970s, would have given the UK strategic independence in foreign policy with an ability to mount combined land air/sea operations by itself, probably involving forces of a corps/II corps interventions, without necessarily relying on the Americans.

    It would have allowed the UK to maintain a Mediterranean fleet, as well as an Atlantic/home fleet, maintain bases in the middle east, probably in Aden, and in the Far East in Singapore/Hong Kong. And probably resulted in more regular African interventions as well. It would have kept the UK at the leading edge of aviation, ship design and missile development.

    It would have meant the UK had much more leverage over conflicts like Vietnam and Cambodia, and in Chinese relations, and a more equal voice in middle eastern oil politics.

    It would have come at the cost of healthcare and welfare.
    Fortunately I only lived around 13 days under the 2nd Wilson premiership (giving away my date of birth there!) and he got most big decisions wrong......apart from the Open University and staying out of Vietnam (well largely so although we did have a few secret operations there). How you think we would have been better off with 8-9% of defence spending and getting involved in the quagmire of Vietnam is beyond me, thank goodness we pretty much remained out of that one.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    On topic, it's my view the UK should be spending (today) about 3% of GDP on defence and a further 0.5% (rough average, over 10 years) on softer stuff like international aid, if it wishes to properly fund the aspirations we have as a 2nd tier global power. I.e. a "tipping point" ally who can make a real difference, in international situations both soft and hard.

    That won't happen, of course, and wouldn't have if we'd stayed in the EU either, but we will continue to try and fudge it by puffing up our chests and figures.

    We'll end up joining the nascent European defence initiatives.

    You can have all that you desire via an acceptance that it can only be achieved by uniting Old Europe.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    Sean_F said:

    At the same time we spent vast sums on the armed forces, we were told correctly that we had "never had it so good". By the mid-seventies, real incomes per head were double the level of 1945.

    Because the Empire went, we embraced a belief in national decline that was never justified by the facts.
    We wanted to be as important as China, the Soviet Union and the USA, and playing the game at an equal level to all of them.

    That's very, very difficult for a small island off the coast of Europe, with our small population and economy, unless you can leverage something big, like an Empire, or unite the Anglosphere.

    It's humiliating because we could still play that game up until 60 years ago, and we were culturally and politically used to it, and we haven't really been able to since.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    We'll end up joining the nascent European defence initiatives.

    You can have all that you desire via an acceptance that it can only be achieved by uniting Old Europe.
    No thanks.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,424

    30 years ago I went out with some Dutch people. At that time it was possible to go to Uni for free if they had been finanacially independent for 3 years, but it had to be paid for if aged 18.

    In practice they did National Service and worked for a couple of years before going. It seems a good system, as a conscious decision had to be for uni rather than drifting aimlessly, and a more mature outlook on life and career. I wouldnt mind seeing such a system here.
    That does sound pretty good.

    It would also allow the potential student to get some experience of work in their expected field of study and so reduce the risk of them doing something to which they're not suited.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    We'll end up joining the nascent European defence initiatives.

    You can have all that you desire via an acceptance that it can only be achieved by uniting Old Europe.
    Will I achieve the pinnacle of success in my career as well, with children who laud me, a wife who adores me, and cooks for me every evening, and hordes of wellwishers beating a path to my door every Sunday to sing my praises?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238


    We wanted to be as important as China, the Soviet Union and the USA, and playing the game at an equal level to all of them.

    That's very, very difficult for a small island off the coast of Europe, with our small population and economy, unless you can leverage something big, like an Empire, or unite the Anglosphere.

    It's humiliating because we could still play that game up until 60 years ago, and we were culturally and politically used to it, and we haven't really been able to since.

    It was that false view that we could no longer have our own place in the world that led us to the idiotic decision to become a third rate country in the burgeoning EU federation. It was a dumb decision then and remains a dumb decision today.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    Will I achieve the pinnacle of success in my career as well, with children who laud me, a wife who adores me, and cooks for me every evening, and hordes of wellwishers beating a path to my door every Sunday to sing my praises?
    Yes, you'll be the model of a modern European family. A union of two people from either side of the continent living the European dream.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    hunchman said:

    Fortunately I only lived around 13 days under the 2nd Wilson premiership (giving away my date of birth there!) and he got most big decisions wrong......apart from the Open University and staying out of Vietnam (well largely so although we did have a few secret operations there). How you think we would have been better off with 8-9% of defence spending and getting involved in the quagmire of Vietnam is beyond me, thank goodness we pretty much remained out of that one.
    I am personally willing to pay the high price required for the UK to have a major say in the development of the future course of humanity, with us having the ability to both steer and pull levers, which I think is crucial given we have <1% of the global population. And I would vote for it too.

    But, I accept that's a minority view today.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    Yes, you'll be the model of a modern European family. A union of two people from either side of the continent living the European dream.
    Hahahaha!! Brilliant :-D
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    As with almost all of Alastair's thread headers it is an excellent, balanced piece based on a well informed and neutral stance.

    He saves his bias for the comments below the line which shows admirable restraint.
    +1
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    A quite brilliant demolition by my friend David DuByne at Adapt 2030:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5x-Io1vhOOI
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    We'll end up joining the nascent European defence initiatives.

    You can have all that you desire via an acceptance that it can only be achieved by uniting Old Europe.
    Military success depends far more on a readiness to take casualties than a proliferation of brass hats. EU defence initiatives involve the latter.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    It was that false view that we could no longer have our own place in the world that led us to the idiotic decision to become a third rate country in the burgeoning EU federation. It was a dumb decision then and remains a dumb decision today.
    Without a vast Empire, the UK reverted to the sort of influence it had c.1700. Not bestriding the World like a colossus, but not trivial either.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591


    You really do seek a cathartic defeat at the hands of the Europeans...

    On a serious note ... welfare.

    Fortunately I only lived around 13 days under the 2nd Wilson premiership (giving away my date of birth there!) and he got most big decisions wrong......apart from the Open University and staying out of Vietnam (well largely so although we did have a few secret operations there). How you think we would have been better off with 8-9% of defence spending and getting involved in the quagmire of Vietnam is beyond me, thank goodness we pretty much remained out of that one.

    I am personally willing to pay the high price required for the UK to have a major say in the development of the future course of humanity, with us having the ability to both steer and pull levers, which I think is crucial given we have <1% of the global population. And I would vote for it too.

    But, I accept that's a minority view today.</p>

    i broadly agree with you on increasing defence spending to 3% of GDP in the current volatile geopolitical climate, but that's never going to happen in a month of Sunday's given the 2% of GDP spending commitment, thanks to being part of the EU military union.......of which most of the general public would be horrified if they knew the details, including I daresay a fair chunk of the 48% who voted to remain last year. We've just spent £3bn on an aircraft carrier without any thought to the necessary fleet including destroyers backing it up, or aircraft that are compatible with it.......but heck that's all part of the plan that none of the EU states will individually have a joined up military capability, so that they have to mesh together as part of the wider EU military union. They're perfectly open about the intention if you go to France and Germany, I wonder why we don't have the same openness about what our government is doing to our defence forces here. It doesn't take too many brain cells to work out why.

    Having said that, I have absolutely no desire for our defence forces to get involved overseas, unless it is an obvious threat to our national security. Our adventures in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Afghanistan but to name a few in recent years have been an unmitigated disaster. We still think of ourselves as a global military power as a hangover of our empire days. Its been long overdue to update that outdated mindset, and exercise soft power in a responsible way. Not that we have been doing that in recent years, with BBC World being one of the major culprits of putting out fake news in many countries.
  • GlengyleGlengyle Posts: 11
    Christopher Clark's magnificent account of the causal complexities of the origins of the First World War suggests a complementary perspective to those put forward in Alastair Meeks thoughtful piece. Before the military plans started to clank inexorably forward, it was the multiplicity of actors each with different and often shifting perspectives which provide the parallel with Brexit. Nobody was in control, nobody understood what was happening. It was an incredibly complex and unpredictable causal system.

    The process of negotiation itself, developments within the UK, within each of the UK's parties, politics within the EU machine, within the other 27 nations. All with a greater or lesser degree of unpredictability. All with the potential to collide to produce a causal avalanche in any of several directions - producing outcomes which no one wants and certainly can't predict.

    Ian Jack had a lovely discussion of this last November. Google 'Ian Jack Brexit Sleepwalkers'.

    A bumpy ride indeed!

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2017
    hunchman said:

    A quite brilliant demolition by my friend David DuByne at Adapt 2030:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5x-Io1vhOOI

    I need to buy seeds from foodsforliberty.com to prepare for the upcoming grand solar minimum?

    Is this something I should worry about?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Pong said:

    I need to buy seeds from foodsforliberty.com to prepare for the upcoming grand solar minimum?

    Is this something I should worry about?
    Thanks Pong - in short yes it is something we should all be concerned about. We got a little foretaste of what is to come in February, when you couldn't get courgettes and other vegetables in our supermarkets when the supply from Spain was largely wiped out by extremely severe frosts. Historically cold eras have coincided with the fall of empires eg the Quing and Ming dynasties in China died out at times of grand solar minimums. I think there will be serious global food shortages, perhaps as early as 2019. Its an open question as to how serious this grand solar minimum will be. John Casey and other solar physicists believe it will be similar to the Dalton minimum in the early 1800's, others like the Russians led by Professor Abdussamatov believe it will be equivalent to the Maunder minimum from 1640-1715 in the UK, a time when the Thames routinely froze each winter. And it was a time when grain ships had to have military escorts, such was the shortage of food and the desperation of many in the population to avoid starvation. As ever, do your own research.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    hunchman said:

    Thanks Pong - in short yes it is something we should all be concerned about. We got a little foretaste of what is to come in February, when you couldn't get courgettes and other vegetables in our supermarkets when the supply from Spain was largely wiped out by extremely severe frosts. Historically cold eras have coincided with the fall of empires eg the Quing and Ming dynasties in China died out at times of grand solar minimums. I think there will be serious global food shortages, perhaps as early as 2019. Its an open question as to how serious this grand solar minimum will be. John Casey and other solar physicists believe it will be similar to the Dalton minimum in the early 1800's, others like the Russians led by Professor Abdussamatov believe it will be equivalent to the Maunder minimum from 1640-1715 in the UK, a time when the Thames routinely froze each winter. And it was a time when grain ships had to have military escorts, such was the shortage of food and the desperation of many in the population to avoid starvation. As ever, do your own research.
    How is that sovereign debt crisis going hunchman?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    hunchman said:

    Thanks Pong - in short yes it is something we should all be concerned about. We got a little foretaste of what is to come in February, when you couldn't get courgettes and other vegetables in our supermarkets when the supply from Spain was largely wiped out by extremely severe frosts. Historically cold eras have coincided with the fall of empires eg the Quing and Ming dynasties in China died out at times of grand solar minimums. I think there will be serious global food shortages, perhaps as early as 2019. Its an open question as to how serious this grand solar minimum will be. John Casey and other solar physicists believe it will be similar to the Dalton minimum in the early 1800's, others like the Russians led by Professor Abdussamatov believe it will be equivalent to the Maunder minimum from 1640-1715 in the UK, a time when the Thames routinely froze each winter. And it was a time when grain ships had to have military escorts, such was the shortage of food and the desperation of many in the population to avoid starvation. As ever, do your own research.
    There is no question that the world is getting significantly warmer:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/monitoring/climate/surface-temperature

    If this is happening despite minimums in the Sun's output we have a serious problem on our hands because the full effects of warming may well be being disguised by countervailing factors. When that minimum passes temperatures may accelerate very rapidly and beyond our ability to respond.

    There is of course a lot of crap written in the media about global warming and supposed causes and effects. It may be that these volcanoes are an example. But that crap does not undermine the central premise. It would be astonishing if the activities of man over the last millennium did not have a material effect on global temperatures. Millions of years of carbon capture have been reversed in the blink of an eye in geological terms.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Mortimer said:

    How is that sovereign debt crisis going hunchman?
    I'm agreed with Martin Armstrong that it starts towards the end of this year and gets going in earnest next year ie 2018. The next (minor) turn date on his model is around the 25th November in 4 months time IIRC. We've seen a Greek government debt offering 2x subscribed for in a world still hungry for yield, and investors prepared to lend to Argentina for 100 years in the past month. Such madness is a sure sign of a bubble top forming in sovereign government debt don't you think?

    Meanwhile here is another wonderful YouTube video about EU corruption, from a man who was allegedly murdered in the year following this speech in 2009:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GclxqknrTog
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Toms said:

    Great essay by Mr. Meeks.
    History is not my metier, but I seem to recall from History 101 that one aspect of WW one was that mobilising an armed force was ponderous and slow (at least in Russia'a case) , gaining a kind of momentum of its own. Would our indecision and internal friction not be getting out of control?

    Anecdotally, a friend back from a German visit said a businessman there was stricken with worry over Brexit, whereas another friend, back from France, said they are just laughing at us.

    The German plans were based on a two front war being unwinnable, so had to defeat France before the Russians mobilised, which they expected to be slow.

    Actually the Russians mobilised rapidly and invaded Prussia even before the Western campaign had failed, and Germany did well on a two front war, but got defeated when it went to one front.

    Putting Lenin on that train to Petrograd was probably the single dumbest move the Germans made. Europe (and Germany in particular) would be a very different place if the Bolsheviks hadn't got their hands on power. Expectations and plans often don't survive contact with the enemy.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238
    Sean_F said:

    Without a vast Empire, the UK reverted to the sort of influence it had c.1700. Not bestriding the World like a colossus, but not trivial either.
    Indeed. My view is that we neither need nor should want to be ruling an Empire - even a small one - nor telling other countries how to run their affairs. The EU is engaging in a struggle with countries like India and China which it is absolutely certain to lose. The smart thing to do is find our own niche in the new world and exploit it to our own benefit. Let others worry about throwing their weight around and telling other countries what to do.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    DavidL said:

    There is no question that the world is getting significantly warmer:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/monitoring/climate/surface-temperature

    If this is happening despite minimums in the Sun's output we have a serious problem on our hands because the full effects of warming may well be being disguised by countervailing factors. When that minimum passes temperatures may accelerate very rapidly and beyond our ability to respond.

    There is of course a lot of crap written in the media about global warming and supposed causes and effects. It may be that these volcanoes are an example. But that crap does not undermine the central premise. It would be astonishing if the activities of man over the last millennium did not have a material effect on global temperatures. Millions of years of carbon capture have been reversed in the blink of an eye in geological terms.
    How do you explain all the recent cold weather eg South America including snow in Santiago which is rare, snow on top of Table Mountain which is pretty rare, crops wiped out in Europe in late April including half of French vineyards and aforementioned Courgettes in Spain. A miserable cold and wet summer in Moscow, and very cold summer in Finland - Putin himself said how cold this summer has been not that our media wanted to report what he had to say! We've had a record July cold temperature of -33C in Greenland, indeed a record northern hemisphere cold temperature in July. Perth in Australia has had its coldest winter in years, with many record cold temperatures set in South Australia. Right around the world there is cold wherever you look, including Squaw Valley ski resort in California remaining open year round for the first time in 2017. How do you account for all this cold weather in the supposed warmest year ever? It doesn't fit, and the reason it doesn't fit is because the data you supplied from the Met Office is being fraudulently manipulated. NOAA, Hadley CRU and that wretched institution East Anglia University have all been caught fraudulently manipulating data. Serious solar physicists, not funded by the narrative that government wants to put out with the wish to tax carbon, openly ridicule the man made climate change agenda.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,498

    Indeed. My view is that we neither need nor should want to be ruling an Empire - even a small one - nor telling other countries how to run their affairs. The EU is engaging in a struggle with countries like India and China which it is absolutely certain to lose. The smart thing to do is find our own niche in the new world and exploit it to our own benefit. Let others worry about throwing their weight around and telling other countries what to do.
    Hear hear.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135

    No, the kneejerk reaction was that it is very good news indeed as it makes a soft Brexit much more likely.

    But where will the engines be made? :lol:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    hunchman said:

    How do you explain all the recent cold weather eg South America including snow in Santiago which is rare, snow on top of Table Mountain which is pretty rare, crops wiped out in Europe in late April including half of French vineyards and aforementioned Courgettes in Spain. A miserable cold and wet summer in Moscow, and very cold summer in Finland - Putin himself said how cold this summer has been not that our media wanted to report what he had to say! We've had a record July cold temperature of -33C in Greenland, indeed a record northern hemisphere cold temperature in July. Perth in Australia has had its coldest winter in years, with many record cold temperatures set in South Australia. Right around the world there is cold wherever you look, including Squaw Valley ski resort in California remaining open year round for the first time in 2017. How do you account for all this cold weather in the supposed warmest year ever? It doesn't fit, and the reason it doesn't fit is because the data you supplied from the Met Office is being fraudulently manipulated. NOAA, Hadley CRU and that wretched institution East Anglia University have all been caught fraudulently manipulating data. Serious solar physicists, not funded by the narrative that government wants to put out with the wish to tax carbon, openly ridicule the man made climate change agenda.
    You need to differentiate between weather and climate. Southern Europe is currently enduring record temperatures but that is not significant in the overall sense either. What is important is the average and the average is rising. It is not rising as fast as the models predicted which suggests to me that there is something in the solar minimum hypothesis but for the reasons I have said that is a cause for concern not comfort. Things are likely to be worse than we think, not better.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    The German plans were based on a two front war being unwinnable, so had to defeat France before the Russians mobilised, which they expected to be slow.

    Actually the Russians mobilised rapidly and invaded Prussia even before the Western campaign had failed, and Germany did well on a two front war, but got defeated when it went to one front.

    Putting Lenin on that train to Petrograd was probably the single dumbest move the Germans made. Europe (and Germany in particular) would be a very different place if the Bolsheviks hadn't got their hands on power. Expectations and plans often don't survive contact with the enemy.

    Germany's Second Team won convincingly in the East, whereas its First Team got bogged down in the West. I wonder if they should have just offered Russia a truce after driving them out of East Prussia.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    DavidL said:

    You need to differentiate between weather and climate. Southern Europe is currently enduring record temperatures but that is not significant in the overall sense either. What is important is the average and the average is rising. It is not rising as fast as the models predicted which suggests to me that there is something in the solar minimum hypothesis but for the reasons I have said that is a cause for concern not comfort. Things are likely to be worse than we think, not better.
    And that of course is the simple way to wriggle out of it:

    Weather = Stuff that doesn't fit the AGW religion
    Climate = Things that echo the agenda.

    It's just a different version of playing the Because/Despite Brexit game.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited July 2017

    We wanted to be as important as China, the Soviet Union and the USA, and playing the game at an equal level to all of them.

    That's very, very difficult for a small island off the coast of Europe, with our small population and economy, unless you can leverage something big, like an Empire, or unite the Anglosphere.

    It's humiliating because we could still play that game up until 60 years ago, and we were culturally and politically used to it, and we haven't really been able to since.
    I'm getting a bit jealous of William. It's my turn to be very much "out there" for a minute.

    I'm not saying the UK should do the following. I'm not saying I want it, or that it's a good thing, or that the British voting public would elect anyone standing on this platform. But...

    There is a huge number of people who would love to live in Britain. People who'll cross continents at great expense and in some cases grave danger. Even if we said we were going to strictly prioritise experienced professionals for the NHS, STEM graduates, construction industry workers with suitable vocational qualifications, holders of postgraduate degrees in valued non-STEM subjects (e.g. LLM lawyers, MBA managers, MSc financiers and risk managers, MA or PhD linguists) and anyone with a job that would let them earn £30k or more, we would still have more potential high-value migrants than we can shake a stick at.

    You could stick on a requirement "must already speak English" (bonus point for Welsh or Gaelic, if you please) and what with it being a global language, and given the professional requirements, the numbers would barely thin. It's difficult to include a test for "a certain affinity for British culture" but Britain has been such a remarkably successful cultural exporter that this would surely prove a low bar regardless.

    We also, though this be an unpopular view, have lots of room - with certain provisos. We would need to become more accepting of high-density housing solutions. We would need to sacrifice some green and pleasant land. But it would be eminently possible for these islands to provide a home to, say, 120-180 million people by 2060.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    (ctd):

    I have mentioned the costs of a higher population density but it would also have advantages - makes service delivery cheaper, and in some villages or smaller towns (where currently, say, a local shop or library or fitness centre or hospital cannot be justified) would make such provision financially sustainable. Many transportation systems work most effectively in high density areas. There would be huge economic opportunities that arise from attracting intelligent, hard-working, creative professionals from all over the world and seeing what happens when they have the chance to connect together. It would raise the economic wellbeing even of the existing population, in fact even of that subset of the existing population who are low-qualified and low-skilled (see also: Why I would rather have the lifestyle of a municipal street-cleaner in Singapore than Papua New Guinea).

    Okay, Britain would become a very different place. You may well argue it would be a worse place, in many ways. But provided cultural and social cohesion could be maintained, it would be an exciting place (likely at the forefront of global science, technology, arts and culture), an enriched place (culturally and financially) and a very strong place - an undoubted global player. well ahead of Japan and Russia, only a notch or two below the leading superpowers of the day, and utterly unsubsumable into any European super-state. As indigestible as the Austro-Hungarian Empire to the nascent Germany.

    All massively unlikely to happen, of course. But if the British really are ever determined, for whatever reason, to become once more a pivotal player in global affairs, this option is a real one. And such a vision of "Global Britain" as a kind of SuperSizedSinagpore seems rather more attractive to me than Empire 2.0 anlgocentric jingoism or the stratagem of "let's become Great Britain by becoming Greater Europe".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    GeoffM said:

    And that of course is the simple way to wriggle out of it:

    Weather = Stuff that doesn't fit the AGW religion
    Climate = Things that echo the agenda.

    It's just a different version of playing the Because/Despite Brexit game.
    No, it means that you look at the average, not freak weather events. Eg:

    "A new study published this week in Geophysical Research Letters by Robert Graham at the Norwegian Polar Institute shows that warm winters in the Arctic are becoming more frequent and lasting for longer periods of time than they used to. Warm events were defined by when the air temperatures rose above -10 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit). While this is still well below the freezing point, it is 20 degrees Celsius (36 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average. The last two winters have seen temperatures near the North Pole rising to 0 degrees Celsius. While an earlier study showed that winter 2015/2016 was the warmest recorded at that time, the winter of 2016/2017 was even warmer."
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    It is frankly absurd to ignore this material because it is not convenient.
  • GeoffM said:

    And that of course is the simple way to wriggle out of it:

    Weather = Stuff that doesn't fit the AGW religion
    Climate = Things that echo the agenda.

    It's just a different version of playing the Because/Despite Brexit game.
    I went raving in Iceland in April once, and it was effing hot after dancing solid for seven hours. I knew then that AGW was a hoax.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited July 2017
    Pong said:

    I need to buy seeds from foodsforliberty.com to prepare for the upcoming grand solar minimum?

    Is this something I should worry about?
    It's all gone a bit

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urglg3WimHA

    I miss the venerable Tapestry. Anyone know how he is getting along these days?
  • DavidL said:

    You need to differentiate between weather and climate. Southern Europe is currently enduring record temperatures but that is not significant in the overall sense either. What is important is the average and the average is rising. It is not rising as fast as the models predicted which suggests to me that there is something in the solar minimum hypothesis but for the reasons I have said that is a cause for concern not comfort. Things are likely to be worse than we think, not better.
    The only thing crazier than conspiracy theories is trying to reason with conspiracy theorists.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    I went raving in Iceland in April once, and it was effing hot after dancing solid for seven hours. I knew then that AGW was a hoax.
    You might be on the wrong website?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    The only thing crazier than conspiracy theories is trying to reason with conspiracy theorists.
    You're right although your point about raving in Iceland did make me hesitate for a moment.
    Welcome by the way.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    DavidL said:

    No, it means that you look at the average, not freak weather events. Eg:

    "A new study published this week in Geophysical Research Letters by Robert Graham at the Norwegian Polar Institute shows that warm winters in the Arctic are becoming more frequent and lasting for longer periods of time than they used to. Warm events were defined by when the air temperatures rose above -10 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit). While this is still well below the freezing point, it is 20 degrees Celsius (36 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average. The last two winters have seen temperatures near the North Pole rising to 0 degrees Celsius. While an earlier study showed that winter 2015/2016 was the warmest recorded at that time, the winter of 2016/2017 was even warmer."
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    It is frankly absurd to ignore this material because it is not convenient.
    I agree that it's absurd. And yet that is what you Warmists do.

    Fits the wishlist = Climate change
    Inconvenient dataset = Hide The Decline (© Michael Mann)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,969
    Sperm counts in the West plunge by 60% in 40 years as ‘modern life’ damages men’s health
  • GeoffM said:

    I agree that it's absurd. And yet that is what you Warmists do.

    Fits the wishlist = Climate change
    Inconvenient dataset = Hide The Decline (© Michael Mann)
    Rave on, comrade. You sound like my old ma when it snows. "Call this global warming eh?"
  • DavidL said:

    You're right although your point about raving in Iceland did make me hesitate for a moment.
    Welcome by the way.
    Cheers comrade.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    IanB2 said:

    Sperm counts in the West plunge by 60% in 40 years as ‘modern life’ damages men’s health

    I think mine's ok.. someone else must be losing out bigtime...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135
    edited July 2017
    Talking of Acieeeed! More attacks in the epicentre

    "If you thought it was a drug, now you know you're wrong"

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/889946050445922305
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Rave on, comrade. You sound like my old ma when it snows. "Call this global warming eh?"
    I like the sound of your old ma. My type of gal..

    Is she fit? Photographs please. Topless or they don't count.
  • isam said:

    But where will the engines be made? :lol:
    Cars will be driving themselves in seven years. So whatever we make now is already obsolete unless you are talking state of the art Tesla etc.
  • GeoffM said:

    I like the sound of your old ma. My type of gal..

    Is she fit? Photographs please. Topless or they don't count.
    You dirty old ----.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135

    Cars will be driving themselves in seven years. So whatever we make now is already obsolete unless you are talking state of the art Tesla etc.
    They must have a crap instructor!
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    You dirty old ----.
    Didn't DavidL explain?

    It's a membership condition of posting on PB.

    To be fair, my mother was surprisingly okay with it when I joined.
  • isam said:

    They must have a crap instructor!
    LOL
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    isam said:

    Talking of Acieeeed! More attacks in the epicentre

    "If you thought it was a drug, now you know you're wrong"

    https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/889946050445922305

    I was told at lunch today that the weapon of choice in our prisons tends to be kettles of boiling water. But to make it more damaging they put a lot of sugar in it so it sticks to the skin and can't be so easily washed off....

    Nearly put me off my soup.
  • I think mine's ok.. someone else must be losing out bigtime...
    Root by name, root by nature eh?
  • You might be on the wrong website?
    You chucking me out doorman?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    Blimey, I go off for a few hours to share a couple of glasses of wine with neighbours and when I come back the topic of discussion has changed from 1914 to global warming and sperm counts! What is it with this website?

    And do the thread header writers wonder why they bother?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238
    IanB2 said:

    Sperm counts in the West plunge by 60% in 40 years as ‘modern life’ damages men’s health

    I thought that was proved to be due to the amount of female hormones entering our water supply due to the pill. Or is that just a myth?? I haven't really looked at it in detail.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    You chucking me out doorman?
    Normally we talk about important things like cricket and ancient history but politics gets the odd mention too.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238
    DavidL said:


    Normally we talk about important things like cricket and ancient history but politics gets the odd mention too.

    I don't think we have anyone on here who talks about rave culture. Okay SeanT was our resident drug expert but that was all old boring twentieth century drugs like heroin.

    Mr Acieed could be a valuable addition to our collective knowledge.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135
    DavidL said:

    I was told at lunch today that the weapon of choice in our prisons tends to be kettles of boiling water. But to make it more damaging they put a lot of sugar in it so it sticks to the skin and can't be so easily washed off....

    Nearly put me off my soup.
    I think that's what they did in the series "The Night Of". Have you seen it? Quite good I thought
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    I thought that was proved to be due to the amount of female hormones entering our water supply due to the pill. Or is that just a myth?? I haven't really looked at it in detail.
    I think that a bigger factor is the chemicals that come off a lot of plastics and some agrichemicals which are very similar to female hormones and seem to impede the development of young male testes. Infertility is certainly an increasing problem
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Thread header: Almost anything at all. Below the line: BREXIT
    Thread header: Brexit. Below the line: EMPIRES AND STUDENT DEBT AND GLOBAL WARMING

    Never change, PB.

    A good header from Alastair Meeks, though I have rather more confidence than he that a deal, however imperfect, will be struck; history shows there is rather more pragmatism (and an inclination for fudge and can-kicking) on both parties' parts than their respective public utterances suggest.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    isam said:

    I think that's what they did in the series "The Night Of". Have you seen it? Quite good I thought
    No missed that one. People can be really vile, can't they?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    GeoffM said:

    I agree that it's absurd. And yet that is what you Warmists do.

    Fits the wishlist = Climate change
    Inconvenient dataset = Hide The Decline (© Michael Mann)
    @GeoffM - pretending global warming isn't happening won't make it go away. Just saying.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238
    DavidL said:

    I think that a bigger factor is the chemicals that come off a lot of plastics and some agrichemicals which are very similar to female hormones and seem to impede the development of young male testes. Infertility is certainly an increasing problem
    Thanks David. Once again PB proves more informative than any newspaper article.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135
    DavidL said:

    No missed that one. People can be really vile, can't they?
    The trend for acid attacks worry me I must say.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,417

    The only thing crazier than conspiracy theories is trying to reason with conspiracy theorists.
    You sound like a conspiracy theorist :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,417

    I think mine's ok.. someone else must be losing out bigtime...
    I haven't looked at my, shall we say, "samples" under a microscope since I was a student :innocent:
This discussion has been closed.