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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mr. Corbyn is playing a dangerous game with the majority of LA

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But, most of Corbyn's admirers are so because they want to destroy capitalism. Corbyn's attitude to the EU has no bearing on this.
A dismal local election campaign - seems unlikely. A dismal GE campaign - well he did okay in the last one and the next likely won't be for a while. A polling collapse - the true believers have seen it before, and likely don't think much of the polling companies. Nukes? They probably agree with him. A serious schism within the parliamentary party? So long as he can still form a shadow cabinet, I think the membership will back their man however inflexible and uncompromising he is being with his colleagues - unless it's over some issue where they really can't run with him. If the parliamentary party are going to try to topple him, their best bet by far is to manufacture a row over Europe. There will certainly be veteran radical left-wingers who joined the party to support Corbyn who have similarly lukewarm or sceptical views on the EU as he does, but a lot of the younger hope-and-change crowd, if presented with "one last chance" to save the country from Brexit, may just feel pressured into a switch.
Easier to bounce them if Labour moderates can find and get behind a pro-Remain figurehead with some proper left-wing credentials, mind you, and either young or (like Corbyn) surprisingly young-friendly. Someone who can work in a Big Tent with moderates and centrists, but who has shown enthusiasm (or at least, no hostility) to the Corbynista project and its supporters.
(The other possibility is that the younger membership just fades away over the next few years, perhaps disillusioned that after all the hype, Labour didn't ultimately end up in power and finding that Corbyn doesn't really speak for them on all the issues that they thought he would. They might even find that Corbyn's bloody-minded inflexibility they had so admired on issues they'd agreed with him over, is not so great when applied to Brexit. If Corbyn's line on Europe accelerates their drifting off, it could ultimately leave him vulnerable later. Still, it's hard to see past Brexit as the ideal issue to try triggering his removal.)
Almost LibDem...
Nonetheless, I would prefer a Labour Brexit to a Tory one. It would be one negotiated by Starmer and Jezza would not be so obsessed with immigration, or Free Trade deals that favour US Multinationals. It is not so much a softer Brexit, as a better one.
Student fees are going to run and run, and at least Jezza recognises these chains of debt on our young. That clamour is only going to get louder. Everyone acknowledges that there will be substantial write offs, the only question is whether that happens after 30 years of crushed life or much sooner. Other European countries manage with much lower fees, as do our BRIC competitors, and even the USA, why are we so different?
Is there any polling evidence for that, as it seems unlikely.
Or is that your own characterisation ?
While the anoraks obsess over Brexit another iceberg is approaching if we're not careful. Some of us have been pointing this out for a while, politicians daren't mention our national debt, far easier to pledge free money.
Labour can ride two horses at once for a long while yet, it is why Lab gained share in both the most Remain and the most Leave constituencies that they hold. They only need to come to a position after taking power.
A Fox style TTIP arrangement with America, where we buy their substandard foods in return for selling them the NHS, combined with an increasingly indebted set of Millenials are both issues where Labour will rake in votes.
I read a Spurs forum where fans say we should make a cheeky bid for Messi, it is as realistic as some of the hogwash Remainers are predicting on here. You are projecting what you want as opposed to dealing with reality.
The Tory Leavers would have no where else to go and Corbyn would lose a huge chunk of his support.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4084857/cabinet-split-over-liam-foxs-plan-to-allow-import-of-controversial-chlorine-washed-chickens-to-help-secure-us-trade-deal-post-brexit/
Jezza and Labour are right to highlight the shape of Brexit, It is what is going to put them in power.
Unfortunately she seems to want to replace it with.... a different kind of capitalism.
It's progress, I suppose.
As for indebted Millenials, did you see Corbyn re student debt the other day?
I repeat, what you hope for is a million miles from reality, hence my comparison with Spurs signing Messi.
Almost no one voted Labour because of Brexit. Why would they? Labour's policy is substantially the same as the Conservatives'. However, a lot of people didn't vote Conservative because of Brexit. Once that decision had been made, those voters looked for a suitable alternative. For many of them, Labour met the need. So Labour need only keep Brexit neutralised to keep them on board.
The risk that Jeremy Corbyn is running is that the more intense Remainers are not ready to accept his double-talk on this subject. From a narrow electoral viewpoint, double-talk is exactly what is needed if unity can be maintained. Off the back of the election surprise, his critics have been mostly silenced for now. When the press find the subject that resonates and the gilt peels off the gingerbread again, those critics will find their voice again. And then what happens after that will be hard to predict.
Mass immigration from the European Union has been used to "destroy" the conditions of British workers, Jeremy Corbyn said today.
Meanwhile
@Jake_Wilde: 1/10 The elephant in the room standing behind Labour's Brexit policy is that it's entirely driven by John McDonnell.
@Jake_Wilde: 5/10 Membership of the Single Market means relinquishing the state's control of both capital & labour, and thus interest rates & wages.
@Jake_Wilde: 6/10 The same for the Customs Union. It's vital for McDonnell's policies that he controls all the levers, including import/export tariffs.
I think most of his voters want an end to austerity, and a return to free candy.
Corbyn on student debt will become a feature every time he makes a silly pledge again. Brexit is irrelevant to the vast majority of people, debt in all its forms is the elephant in the room.
The key risk is how much latitude the leadership allow Labour MPs to play politics over the Great Repeal Bill, where it will come down to a battle of amendments, but I (still) expect the Tory whipping operation to be more effective than Labour's there.
I know OGH is always looking (and hoping) for a reason for Brexit to collapse, but this isn't one of them.
This "selling the NHS" is completely untrue, despite my briefly kindled hope and joy that it might be on the table.
Until that changes...
Putting Country first. A great thing to see.
I have to chuckle at @foxinsox, he's predicting we'll swap the NHS for a few chickens.
A Tory Brexit followed and compounded by the economic policies of a Corbyn government is perhaps the worst of all possible worlds.
Interesting.
The profitable bits would be the most valuable.
A position Corbyn now resiles from
This is not a Tory attack. This is reality biting Corbyn on the ass
All very frustrating for the Lib Dems of course. Can they do better now than they did under the hapless Farron? It is possible that some remainer support will start to peel away from Labour resulting in the loss of their poll lead, such as it is. I have my doubts though. Remainers seem to have few options in the current political sphere.
How can the Conservative Party backtrack when so many of its supporters remain wedded to Brexit? Yet when the next GE comes, the Party will bear the wrath of the electorate for leading the country out of a highly favourable set of economic and political arrangements for precious little in return. Doesn't matter what Corbyn thinks or says. The Conservative Party will own Brexit, just as Labour owned Iraq. The electoral consequences are obvious.
And we can't complain. We voted for it.
One thing that could provide it is Starmer, who is reported to be furious with Corbyn about his lies on the CU/SM, delivers a Geoffrey Howe style speech explaining why the leader Is betraying the values he purports to stand for. Is he up to it? No one thought Howe was.
One Yougov poll found 91% of Conservative voters want Brexit to go ahead, compared to 6% who want to stop it.
I don't really give a damn about the electoral consequences - it's the practical ones which I'm invested in.
People complain. It's what we do. Good or ill. Right or wrong.
Until that changes, come election time if people are unhappy and want change he will get votes.
The only thing Starmer and Corbyn have in common is the colour of the rosette. The Labour Party is effectively 2 parties, the centrists and Momentum. They're enjoying themselves at the moment but tears are around the corner.
And lo, he shall wish to both leave and remain in the single market, and this contortion of reason shall be his sign, and all who love and follow him shall do likewise.
And those who do not this are not in the Jezbollah, peace be upon them, and nor are they Labourites, but instead they are Blairites, the dogs of the earth, and all shall know and despise them.
Question not the wisdom of the prophet, for his policy position moves in mysterious ways.
The Conservatives, as the party of Brexit, have a very vulnerable flank.
What is most disappointing is that while Momentum and the headbangers share a common agenda, Parliamentary arithmetic prevents the realists and centrists from acting together
But now he has seen the light, and there is much rejoicing.
But which is most likely?
'That's because they're talking about the Referendum not Brexit. If no deal is done we don't only lose free trade with the 27 but also the 60 countries with whom the EU has free trade deals'
This she believed was the direction of travel in the negotiations and would be seriously detrimental to our wellbeing.
The more we delve into the entrails of what Leaving means the more stark it's becoming that it's anything but a simple panacea for keeping foreigners out. It's as unpredictable as a meteor hurtling towards Stoke.....
To change Labour's position entirely would need a second referendum, which is why I still think there's a 20-25% chance that is where we will end up.
Corbyn is a campaigner. He states what he believes and tries to win recruits to those beliefs. Occasionally, he will trim official Labour policy to the immediate needs of the moment - getting something through the NEC, for example - but the process never runs from establishing what is popular to developing policy to fit with that. After his experience these last three months, he and his supporters will no doubt feel a reinforced justification in that approach.
So Brexit? He can win them round, or so he'll believe. That or it won't matter if he can't.
And the truth is that it doesn't matter to him because ultimately, winning doesn't particularly matter to him. Sure, it's important and it's much nicer than the alternative but when the chips are down, it's better to lose with the right policies than win with the wrong ones.
He has got away with it so far and he'll continue to get away with it for a while yet. For one thing, his stock is high and it'd be a brave opponent to take him on. For another, I think there's a reticence among potential opponents because they still haven't really worked him out or how the politics around him work: it's not according to the normal rules and dynamics and as such, it's much harder for them (and us) to game. And for a third, those who did oppose him are now suffering the insults of his supporters for having cost Labour the election - an accusation that is hard to bear, not least because there may, as things turned out, be more than a grain of truth in it.
But at some point the tension will become too great. Corbyn is not terribly interested in the EU but to the extent that he is, it's at least as much of a hindrance as a help to his programme. For many in his party though, it's a core issue. That Corbyn is closer to many traditional Labour voters than his PLP here is an irony but beside the point. The future of the Labour leadership will depend only peripherally on the relative strengths of the Remainers and Corbynites among voters; it will be within parliament and the higher reaches of the Labour organisation that the tests of strength play out.
There is nothing particularly ambiguous about Corbyn's opposition to free movement of people undermining British workers. And whilst I appreciate that the vast majority don't give this a moment's thought it is obvious that such a position is incompatible with the SM. the crisis is coming in Labour. The Tories are more united on Europe now than they have been in 30 years.
In 18 months or so, the Government will present the final deal to Parliament. The LDs will vote against whatever it is, as will the SNP. Labour will also do so - no matter what it will be.
The Tories and the DUP will vote for, apart from the rebels. The Government way well lose.
But we'll then leave the EU and each faction wil then blame the other for what they will both describe as the worst possible option.
Can we fast-forward and do away with the politicking in between?