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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mr. Corbyn is playing a dangerous game with the majority of LA

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,892
    Totally off-topic: why on earth is Donald Trump and the Republican leadership continuing to attempt to repeal Obamacare?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,407

    @david_herdson If you think it's a 40/1 shot then it's not really so 'out there' at all.

    Describing it as odds-on, as you implicitly do (give or take the entry date), is 'out there' though.
    In order for that not to be the end-game, one of two near impossible things needs to happen:

    - We leave the EU successfully
    - We remain on the same terms as if nothing has happened

    Brexit is this generation's Suez and Eurosceptics will have about as much influence in British politics over the next decade as empire die-hards had in the 60s. It's over.
    I wouldn't bet on it at 40/1.

    For us to end up in the Euro, we have to:
    a) exit really badly
    b) blame our own decisions and not the EU
    c) convince the other EU countries to give us another chance.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    rcs1000 said:

    stevef said:

    I think Corbynistas are partly misinterpreting the rise in the Labour vote and are assuming that it is some great vindication of Corbyn. Many people voted Labour to stop May from getting a landslide for her Hard Brexit/No Deal stance. Labour remains in a dangerous position regarding Brexit, and it would just as dangerous for Labour to oppose Brexit as it would be for it to support it.

    I'm not sure you, or anyone else, can divine exactly the reasons why each of the nearly 13 million people who voted Labour.
    If you add the 52% who voted to leave to the majority of remain voters who believe in democracy and think we should leave the EU then clearly it would be suicide for either of the major parties to oppose Brexit. There would be a stronger argument if we had a PR system, but in a country where 2 out of 3 constituencies voted leave there is nothing to be gained by standing alongside Gina Miller or Vince Cable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,853
    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    rcs1000 said:

    Totally off-topic: why on earth is Donald Trump and the Republican leadership continuing to attempt to repeal Obamacare?

    It's a totemic issue for them. They'll be precious little in way of achievements, but that might at least drag the Trump thing from the realms of utter pointlessness.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,988

    @david_herdson If you think it's a 40/1 shot then it's not really so 'out there' at all.

    Describing it as odds-on, as you implicitly do (give or take the entry date), is 'out there' though.
    In order for that not to be the end-game, one of two near impossible things needs to happen:

    - We leave the EU successfully
    - We remain on the same terms as if nothing has happened

    Brexit is this generation's Suez and Eurosceptics will have about as much influence in British politics over the next decade as empire die-hards had in the 60s. It's over.
    Successful is in the eye of the beholder and is a relative thing. Even if the UK does suffer economically as a result of Brexit (which is highly probable, though the extent to which it happens remains very much up for debate), that will not by any means prompt a clamouring for a return to the EU, never mind for entry into the Eurozone. The bullheadedness that produced Brexit in the first place is unlikely to go away, nor the issues of genuine concern that Remainers failed to address.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited July 2017

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,407
    rcs1000 said:

    Totally off-topic: why on earth is Donald Trump and the Republican leadership continuing to attempt to repeal Obamacare?

    They did promise to repeal it a few thousand times...
    That John McCain is risking his life to do so seems bonkers to me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,853
    rkrkrk said:

    @david_herdson If you think it's a 40/1 shot then it's not really so 'out there' at all.

    Describing it as odds-on, as you implicitly do (give or take the entry date), is 'out there' though.
    In order for that not to be the end-game, one of two near impossible things needs to happen:

    - We leave the EU successfully
    - We remain on the same terms as if nothing has happened

    Brexit is this generation's Suez and Eurosceptics will have about as much influence in British politics over the next decade as empire die-hards had in the 60s. It's over.
    I wouldn't bet on it at 40/1.

    For us to end up in the Euro, we have to:
    a) exit really badly
    b) blame our own decisions and not the EU
    c) convince the other EU countries to give us another chance.
    We have quite a small window of opportunity to consolidate London's position as the European financial capital or see it slip away. This time next year there could be a real sense of urgency about it.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    This is delusional. I wouldn't go so far as predict unrest if it doesn't happen, though people can be not that fussed about Brexit per se and care about the principle of democratic results being honoured.

    The Remain case is being found wanting - the economy hasn't collapsed and we're not an international pariah.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,407

    rcs1000 said:

    Totally off-topic: why on earth is Donald Trump and the Republican leadership continuing to attempt to repeal Obamacare?

    It's a totemic issue for them. They'll be precious little in way of achievements, but that might at least drag the Trump thing from the realms of utter pointlessness.
    If they repeal and don't replace you're looking at 32m people losing health insurance.
    Even if they do come up with their own plan, evidence so far suggests over 20m losing health insurance.

    What the political consequences of that are I do not know - it's conceivable that it would be a dramatic realignment in US politics.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Brom said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
    Seconded. Though when Dimbleby called it at 20 minutes to 5 I was too tired to react after a day of GOTV and attending the count.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,853
    Brom said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
    The real choice was:

    - Remain: Semi-detachment and never joining the Euro, or,
    - Leave: Break the status quo and demonstrate that leaving the EU is a fantasy, laying the ground for the UK to go further in in due course.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497

    On the disloyal voter business, I guess I'm the kind of centreist that the Tory Party has lost forever now.

    ...

    I'm not sure who I will vote for next time. It depends what happens next, and that's very hard to predict, but it is extremely unlikely I will ever vote for the Party that led us into Brexit, which I regard as the biggest act of political folly in my lifetime.

    I completely agree with the above comments.

    It is odd, looking back with hindsight, how Major now looks like a stateman, a politician of substance. At the time he seemed so ineffective. I cannot tell whether it is rose-tinted glasses or comparison to the current political pygmies that cause this effect. Having said that, I did vote Tory when Major was running the show because the alternative was Kinnock and, later on, Mr Sweaty.
    It isn't hindsight with me. I could have voted for him, but the Party was the problem. It was the same with Cameron. He was, I thought, a pretty decent PM, and led a pretty decent Government, but the headbangers in the Party were too much for me, and in the end for him too.

    Milliband wasn't much of an alternative, I thought, but ok....sort of, and certainly preferable to Corbyn, but there is no Centre option now, so I guess I'll just wait and see how events unfold.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,407

    rkrkrk said:

    @david_herdson If you think it's a 40/1 shot then it's not really so 'out there' at all.

    Describing it as odds-on, as you implicitly do (give or take the entry date), is 'out there' though.
    In order for that not to be the end-game, one of two near impossible things needs to happen:

    - We leave the EU successfully
    - We remain on the same terms as if nothing has happened

    Brexit is this generation's Suez and Eurosceptics will have about as much influence in British politics over the next decade as empire die-hards had in the 60s. It's over.
    I wouldn't bet on it at 40/1.

    For us to end up in the Euro, we have to:
    a) exit really badly
    b) blame our own decisions and not the EU
    c) convince the other EU countries to give us another chance.
    We have quite a small window of opportunity to consolidate London's position as the European financial capital or see it slip away. This time next year there could be a real sense of urgency about it.
    Even if the link was absolutely 100% certain, I don't think we would join the Euro to save London being a European financial capital.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    rcs1000 said:

    Totally off-topic: why on earth is Donald Trump and the Republican leadership continuing to attempt to repeal Obamacare?

    Because they have been banging on about nothing else for 8 years and 60% of the Republican base hate Obamacare with a passion and a further 20% dislike it. Democrats are entirely and independents mostly on board with Obamacare.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Totally off-topic: why on earth is Donald Trump and the Republican leadership continuing to attempt to repeal Obamacare?

    Because they have been banging on about nothing else for 8 years and 60% of the Republican base hate Obamacare with a passion and a further 20% dislike it. Democrats are entirely and independents mostly on board with Obamacare.
    Interestingly young people who are most affected by the costs of Obamacare generally like it. It's the older folk who are supported by Medicare anyway who are most opposed.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    Cracking little fallacy there. The reason people don't think it's a salient issue any more is that they think it is done and dusted and going to happen. Analogously, if you ask people what they think are the salient issues of the day, they probably won't say that the government making all forms of ice cream illegal is high on the list. This does not imply that they wouldn't notice or mind an ice cream ban.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    Essexit said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    This is delusional. I wouldn't go so far as predict unrest if it doesn't happen, though people can be not that fussed about Brexit per se and care about the principle of democratic results being honoured.

    The Remain case is being found wanting - the economy hasn't collapsed and we're not an international pariah.
    Johnson’s doing his best on the second count, though.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    Brom said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
    The real choice was:

    - Remain: Semi-detachment and never joining the Euro, or,
    - Leave: Break the status quo and demonstrate that leaving the EU is a fantasy, laying the ground for the UK to go further in in due course.
    Once we have left it will be decades before we even consider rejoining - and personally I think it will never happen.

    Once we are out the EU will continue an accelerated move to federalisation and that will reduce support for it in the UK even further. There will always be a fringe of lunatics like yourself who will pine for us to rejoin but you will never have any power or any real support.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Brom said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
    The real choice was:

    - Remain: Semi-detachment and never joining the Euro, or,
    - Leave: Break the status quo and demonstrate that leaving the EU is a fantasy, laying the ground for the UK to go further in in due course.
    You are utterly delusional.

    One has to wonder how 93% of the world's population survive outside the EU if not being in the EU is a fantasy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Off topic:

    Has anyone here ever set up a shell company in Ireland, & is it hard.

    Asking for a friend..
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited July 2017

    Brom said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
    The real choice was:

    - Remain: Semi-detachment and never joining the Euro, or,
    - Leave: Break the status quo and demonstrate that leaving the EU is a fantasy, laying the ground for the UK to go further in in due course.
    Why would the EU actually want us back?

    At least after 60 years of them waiting for us to "get with the programme", and our not actually taking their political angle seriously and pretending it was "all about economics really", we've had some honesty at last. They can see it's as plain as a pikestaff that if we did go back there would be a bitterly unreconciled section of the UK populous, meaning full engagement, as they want, was not going to be on the cards.

    You appear to be expecting a Damascene conversion of large chunks of the voters. Possible, but not exactly likely on an issue so entrenched. It's as least as likely (if not at all desirable I hasten to add), that folk will turn sharply against the EU for being unaccommodating to a country wishing to leave.

    If leaving is a "fantasy", then it's a prison. That is not a route to harmony to say the least.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,853

    Brom said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
    The real choice was:

    - Remain: Semi-detachment and never joining the Euro, or,
    - Leave: Break the status quo and demonstrate that leaving the EU is a fantasy, laying the ground for the UK to go further in in due course.
    You are utterly delusional.

    One has to wonder how 93% of the world's population survive outside the EU if not being in the EU is a fantasy.
    For the most part they do it by not being in Europe. This is not about what's right for South Korea but what's right for the UK.

    The pro-European forces are too determined, too strong, too right about where our true national interests lie.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,853
    I take it all back. Brexit is going to be wonderful:

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/889821674987761664
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic:

    Has anyone here ever set up a shell company in Ireland, & is it hard.

    Asking for a friend..

    Apple Computer Inc seemed to find it quite easy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Brom said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
    The real choice was:

    - Remain: Semi-detachment and never joining the Euro, or,
    - Leave: Break the status quo and demonstrate that leaving the EU is a fantasy, laying the ground for the UK to go further in in due course.
    You are utterly delusional.

    One has to wonder how 93% of the world's population survive outside the EU if not being in the EU is a fantasy.
    For the most part they do it by not being in Europe. This is not about what's right for South Korea but what's right for the UK.

    The pro-European forces are too determined, too strong, too right about where our true national interests lie.
    South Korea survives not being a part of North Korea, Japan, China or any other Asian superstate.
    Canada survives not being a part of the United States of America.

    The UK is part of a global world where geography matters less and less in the 21st century. The fact we are in the continent called Europe doesn't matter one jot when it comes to determining that South Korea can survive independently but for the UK it's a fantasy.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I take it all back. Brexit is going to be wonderful:

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/889821674987761664

    That the leader of the free world sees it as being in his interest to get a deal with us, is an unadulterated good thing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Brom said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
    The real choice was:

    - Remain: Semi-detachment and never joining the Euro, or,
    - Leave: Break the status quo and demonstrate that leaving the EU is a fantasy, laying the ground for the UK to go further in in due course.
    You are utterly delusional.

    One has to wonder how 93% of the world's population survive outside the EU if not being in the EU is a fantasy.
    For the most part they do it by not being in Europe. This is not about what's right for South Korea but what's right for the UK.

    The pro-European forces are too determined, too strong, too right about where our true national interests lie.
    What, you, Blair, Scott n'Paste, Nick Clegg, Uncle Vince and his 3 taxis worth of MPs?

    Whiney, yes. Determined, not so much.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2017
    LOL, I see people who just two months ago were adamant that Labour were on course to get wiped out, now think they're experts in what motivated the Labour surge that they didn't see coming in the first place.

    On the doorsteps only a very small proportion of people mentioned stopping or "softening" Brexit as a reason to vote Labour (something which has been backed up by polls), and literally NOONE mentioned this thing about writing off student debt for past students - even I didn't know he'd made this vague "ambition" in some NME interview until this whole fuss started a couple of weeks ago (frankly I wouldn't have thought it was even legally possible to write off debts already accumulated).

    With that said, the student debts thing might indirectly hurt Labour, in the sense that I think people might misinterpret it as Labour backsliding on their pledge to scrap tuition fees for future students - something which definitely did move votes, and which Labour being perceived to backslide on would be very damaging.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Brom said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
    The real choice was:

    - Remain: Semi-detachment and never joining the Euro, or,
    - Leave: Break the status quo and demonstrate that leaving the EU is a fantasy, laying the ground for the UK to go further in in due course.
    You are utterly delusional.

    One has to wonder how 93% of the world's population survive outside the EU if not being in the EU is a fantasy.
    For the most part they do it by not being in Europe. This is not about what's right for South Korea but what's right for the UK.

    The pro-European forces are too determined, too strong, too right about where our true national interests lie.

    It's ok, I can see the little ships coming to get us off the beach, in the nick of time.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNewsBreak: BMW says a fully-electric version of the Mini is to be built at the company's plant at Cowley near Oxford

    @SkyNewsBreak: BMW spokesman says company neither sought nor received assurances from Government on post-Brexit trading arrangements over Mini investment

    @SkyNewsBreak: Business Sec says decision is a "vote of confidence" in the plan to make UK the go-to place in the world for the next generation of vehicles
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Danny565 said:

    LOL, I see people who just two months ago were adamant that Labour were on course to get wiped out, now think they're experts in what motivated the Labour surge that they didn't see coming in the first place.

    On the doorsteps only a very small proportion of people mentioned stopping or "softening" Brexit as a reason to vote Labour (something which has been backed up by polls), and literally NOONE mentioned this thing about writing off student debt for past students - even I didn't know he'd made this vague "ambition" in some NME interview until this whole fuss started a couple of weeks ago (frankly I wouldn't have thought it was even legally possible to write off debts already accumulated).

    With that said, the student debts thing might indirectly hurt Labour, in the sense that I think people might misinterpret it as Labour backsliding on their pledge to scrap tuition fees for future students - something which definitely did move votes, and which Labour being perceived to backslide on would be very damaging.

    You don't think the young voters who have these debts today were motivated to get their own debts written off after he said he would abolish their debts if they elected him? You think they were voting to get rid of future students debts while keeping their own?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726

    Brom said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
    The real choice was:

    - Remain: Semi-detachment and never joining the Euro, or,
    - Leave: Break the status quo and demonstrate that leaving the EU is a fantasy, laying the ground for the UK to go further in in due course.
    You are utterly delusional.

    One has to wonder how 93% of the world's population survive outside the EU if not being in the EU is a fantasy.
    For the most part they do it by not being in Europe. This is not about what's right for South Korea but what's right for the UK.

    The pro-European forces are too determined, too strong, too right about where our true national interests lie.
    That's simply a form of religious fundamentalism. The EU is right because it's right.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    I take it all back. Brexit is going to be wonderful:

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/889821674987761664

    its like reading a teletext!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    edited July 2017

    I take it all back. Brexit is going to be wonderful:

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/889821674987761664

    I wouldn't get too excited. Liam's men probably just asked Donald to do it as a favour. It's a sure fire way for Liam to get his picture on the front of The Express beaming with a Union Jack halo.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    LOL, I see people who just two months ago were adamant that Labour were on course to get wiped out, now think they're experts in what motivated the Labour surge that they didn't see coming in the first place.

    On the doorsteps only a very small proportion of people mentioned stopping or "softening" Brexit as a reason to vote Labour (something which has been backed up by polls), and literally NOONE mentioned this thing about writing off student debt for past students - even I didn't know he'd made this vague "ambition" in some NME interview until this whole fuss started a couple of weeks ago (frankly I wouldn't have thought it was even legally possible to write off debts already accumulated).

    With that said, the student debts thing might indirectly hurt Labour, in the sense that I think people might misinterpret it as Labour backsliding on their pledge to scrap tuition fees for future students - something which definitely did move votes, and which Labour being perceived to backslide on would be very damaging.

    You don't think the young voters who have these debts today were motivated to get their own debts written off after he said he would abolish their debts if they elected him? You think they were voting to get rid of future students debts while keeping their own?
    I'm sure they would've loved it if they were offered it, but people weren't aware of it, which is natural enough since the only mention of it was in a low-circulation music mag, and it was only couched in very vague terms -- be honest, had you heard Corbyn had made that comment before a couple of weeks ago?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Danny565 said:

    LOL, I see people who just two months ago were adamant that Labour were on course to get wiped out, now think they're experts in what motivated the Labour surge that they didn't see coming in the first place.

    On the doorsteps only a very small proportion of people mentioned stopping or "softening" Brexit as a reason to vote Labour (something which has been backed up by polls), and literally NOONE mentioned this thing about writing off student debt for past students - even I didn't know he'd made this vague "ambition" in some NME interview until this whole fuss started a couple of weeks ago (frankly I wouldn't have thought it was even legally possible to write off debts already accumulated).

    With that said, the student debts thing might indirectly hurt Labour, in the sense that I think people might misinterpret it as Labour backsliding on their pledge to scrap tuition fees for future students - something which definitely did move votes, and which Labour being perceived to backslide on would be very damaging.

    It's certainly possible to buy the debt from its current owners and forgive it. Whether that's a good way of spending a sum equal to twice the annual deficit is an exercise left to the reader.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    LOL, I see people who just two months ago were adamant that Labour were on course to get wiped out, now think they're experts in what motivated the Labour surge that they didn't see coming in the first place.

    On the doorsteps only a very small proportion of people mentioned stopping or "softening" Brexit as a reason to vote Labour (something which has been backed up by polls), and literally NOONE mentioned this thing about writing off student debt for past students - even I didn't know he'd made this vague "ambition" in some NME interview until this whole fuss started a couple of weeks ago (frankly I wouldn't have thought it was even legally possible to write off debts already accumulated).

    With that said, the student debts thing might indirectly hurt Labour, in the sense that I think people might misinterpret it as Labour backsliding on their pledge to scrap tuition fees for future students - something which definitely did move votes, and which Labour being perceived to backslide on would be very damaging.

    You don't think the young voters who have these debts today were motivated to get their own debts written off after he said he would abolish their debts if they elected him? You think they were voting to get rid of future students debts while keeping their own?
    I'm sure they would've loved it if they were offered it, but people weren't aware of it, which is natural enough since the only mention of it was in a low-circulation music mag, and it was only couched in very vague terms -- be honest, had you heard Corbyn had made that comment before a couple of weeks ago?
    It was very widely reported at the time, as a trivial Google search will show. I believe it was also extensively promoted via Twitter and Facebook.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    it was also extensively promoted via Twitter and Facebook.

    By members of the shadow cabinet
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    Williamglenn "The pro-European forces are too determined, too strong, too right about where our true national interests lie. "

    Can you please explain as this appears to imply that these "forces" are working against the vote of the people, thanks.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2017

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    LOL, I see people who just two months ago were adamant that Labour were on course to get wiped out, now think they're experts in what motivated the Labour surge that they didn't see coming in the first place.

    On the doorsteps only a very small proportion of people mentioned stopping or "softening" Brexit as a reason to vote Labour (something which has been backed up by polls), and literally NOONE mentioned this thing about writing off student debt for past students - even I didn't know he'd made this vague "ambition" in some NME interview until this whole fuss started a couple of weeks ago (frankly I wouldn't have thought it was even legally possible to write off debts already accumulated).

    With that said, the student debts thing might indirectly hurt Labour, in the sense that I think people might misinterpret it as Labour backsliding on their pledge to scrap tuition fees for future students - something which definitely did move votes, and which Labour being perceived to backslide on would be very damaging.

    You don't think the young voters who have these debts today were motivated to get their own debts written off after he said he would abolish their debts if they elected him? You think they were voting to get rid of future students debts while keeping their own?
    I'm sure they would've loved it if they were offered it, but people weren't aware of it, which is natural enough since the only mention of it was in a low-circulation music mag, and it was only couched in very vague terms -- be honest, had you heard Corbyn had made that comment before a couple of weeks ago?
    It was very widely reported at the time, as a trivial Google search will show. I believe it was also extensively promoted via Twitter and Facebook.
    I just did a Google search, and all the top results were stories from the last couple of weeks about him "going back" on the supposed promise, rather than stories from the time itself.

    I was aware at the time that the Greens had made a promise of this kind, but it was genuinely news to me that Corbyn had made a comment like this. In any case, maybe it did get wider publicity, but in that case my seat must have been very atypical because people weren't mentioning it here.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    edited July 2017
    Allan said:

    Williamglenn "The pro-European forces are too determined, too strong, too right about where our true national interests lie. "

    Can you please explain as this appears to imply that these "forces" are working against the vote of the people, thanks.

    Like his avatar, he believes the people have no right to be wrong (as he defines it).
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    IanB2 said:

    GeoffM said:

    Worth noting from that graph that the Conservatives are now overwhelmingly a Leavers party.

    Yes. Whichever way they might have individually voted they've swung behind the expressed will of the people .... and are now aligned to fight for the country and make a success of Brexit.

    Putting Country first. A great thing to see.
    Rather, remainers are the votes the Tories have lost, compared to the majority they might have had.
    You do have to wonder about the 10% of the electorate that voted Remain and have stuck with the Conservatives. How much more Brexiting are they going to put up with?
    I suspect theyre well balanced people who have a life, and Brexit isnt the only thing in it.
    Brexit is the only thing in the Conservative party right now. So if they have a life, they would be well-advised to explore it elsewhere.
    Brexit seems to be the only thing in your life, which is sad.

    However in the wider UK - cost of living, housing, uni fees, infrastructure, are much more important to voters

    And in about 3 months time we'll have the annual NHS in crisis crisis

    I am intrigued by the idea that Brexit is not related to the cost of living, housing, university fees, infrastructure and the NHS. From where I sit, the kind of Brexit we get will pretty much determine how we are to deal with all of the above, as well as a whole lot more.

    Yes, 5% on the price of olives - whatever will we do.

    Yep - that's the only price the fall in the value of the pound has affected :-D

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/889764896933597185
    2500 in five years, including 550 in 12 months. So not really much more in the last 12 months than the four previous years...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/889840163765047296

    He didn't know how much a pledge he didn't make would cost...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2017
    Danny565 said:

    I just did a Google search, and all the top results were stories from the last couple of weeks about him "going back" on the supposed promise, rather than stories from the time itself.t case my seat must have been very atypical because people weren't mentioning it here.

    Of course, that's how Google orders its search results.

    Keep scrolling, you'll find plenty of reports from the time.

    I'm not very surprised that it didn't show up much in canvassing. How many students were in and awake when you called?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    I just did a Google search, and all the top results were stories from the last couple of weeks about him "going back" on the supposed promise, rather than stories from the time itself.t case my seat must have been very atypical because people weren't mentioning it here.

    Of course, that's how Google orders its search results.

    Keep scrolling, you'll find plenty of reports from the time.
    Anything on the BBC from the time? (Genuine question.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,853
    edited July 2017
    Allan said:

    Williamglenn "The pro-European forces are too determined, too strong, too right about where our true national interests lie. "

    Can you please explain as this appears to imply that these "forces" are working against the vote of the people, thanks.

    They are working in favour of the vote of 48% of the people, as well as in the national interest. They are 'friends of the people', to coin a phrase.

    Just to add, I do think it's a very legitimate criticism of people like me that if staying in the EU is so vital, we need to do something significant to address the practical concerns of people who are not happy with the way the status quo has been working. That's why I think that a government that respected the will of the people, instead of giving Liam Fox a brand new department, should invest more resources in putting systems in place to do things like bill other EU states for use of NHS services, and being much more creative in interpreting EU law in a way that restricts access to the welfare state for new arrivals.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    Brom said:

    Essexit said:

    If they'd cared that much about Brexit they'd have voted Lib Dem. It's just not a salient issue for most people any more, however odd that seems to politics nuts like us.

    Which means that predictions of civil unrest if it doesn't happen are for the birds. People just don't care, so for the Brexiteers it was a fatal mistake to win the referendum. Now their case is being brutally exposed to reality and is being found wanting. When it's all over they will be marginalised and just have to look ok as the country rejects their vision for good.
    A fatal mistake to win the referendum? that might be the funniest thing I've heard on here.
    Winning the EU ref was probably the greatest political moment in my lifetime and I certainly wouldn't swap it for any General Election result. Why would I have rather lost and had the UK remain inside an ever more integrated EU for the rest of my life or at least until it collapsed?
    The real choice was:

    - Remain: Semi-detachment and never joining the Euro, or,
    - Leave: Break the status quo and demonstrate that leaving the EU is a fantasy, laying the ground for the UK to go further in in due course.
    You are utterly delusional.

    One has to wonder how 93% of the world's population survive outside the EU if not being in the EU is a fantasy.
    For the most part they do it by not being in Europe. This is not about what's right for South Korea but what's right for the UK.

    The pro-European forces are too determined, too strong, too right about where our true national interests lie.
    Look, we all know how much you hold the concept of democracy in contempt. It is one of the reasons you are so Pro-EU. They have similar views on the rights of people to make their own decisions.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    I just did a Google search, and all the top results were stories from the last couple of weeks about him "going back" on the supposed promise, rather than stories from the time itself.t case my seat must have been very atypical because people weren't mentioning it here.

    Of course, that's how Google orders its search results.

    Keep scrolling, you'll find plenty of reports from the time.
    Anything on the BBC from the time? (Genuine question.)
    Dunno.
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262

    Allan said:

    Williamglenn "The pro-European forces are too determined, too strong, too right about where our true national interests lie. "

    Can you please explain as this appears to imply that these "forces" are working against the vote of the people, thanks.

    They are working in favour of the vote of 48% of the people, as well as in the national interest. They are 'friends of the people', to coin a phrase.

    Just to add, I do think it's a very legitimate criticism of people like me that if staying in the EU is so vital, we need to do something significant to address the practical concerns of people who are not happy with the way the status quo has been working. That's why I think that a government that respected the will of the people, instead of giving Liam Fox a brand new department, should invest more resources in putting systems in place to do things like bill other EU states for use of NHS services, and being much more creative in interpreting EU law in a way that restricts access to the welfare state for new arrivals.
    Thank you for the response. So these people are working to undermine the democratic decision. Mensheviks?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,853
    edited July 2017
    Allan said:

    Allan said:

    Williamglenn "The pro-European forces are too determined, too strong, too right about where our true national interests lie. "

    Can you please explain as this appears to imply that these "forces" are working against the vote of the people, thanks.

    They are working in favour of the vote of 48% of the people, as well as in the national interest. They are 'friends of the people', to coin a phrase.

    Just to add, I do think it's a very legitimate criticism of people like me that if staying in the EU is so vital, we need to do something significant to address the practical concerns of people who are not happy with the way the status quo has been working. That's why I think that a government that respected the will of the people, instead of giving Liam Fox a brand new department, should invest more resources in putting systems in place to do things like bill other EU states for use of NHS services, and being much more creative in interpreting EU law in a way that restricts access to the welfare state for new arrivals.
    Thank you for the response. So these people are working to undermine the democratic decision. Mensheviks?
    Remainsheviks. :)
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    Scott_P said:
    Interesting. Jezza's stance is starting to toxify Brexit in the eyes of the British Right. This is understandable. Farage they could just about tolerate, but having Jezza as one of the leaders of your movement? That must be an almost impossible thing to reconcile.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    NEW THREAD

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,242

    IanB2 said:

    GeoffM said:

    Worth noting from that graph that the Conservatives are now overwhelmingly a Leavers party.

    Yes. Whichever way they might have individually voted they've swung behind the expressed will of the people .... and are now aligned to fight for the country and make a success of Brexit.

    Putting Country first. A great thing to see.
    Rather, remainers are the votes the Tories have lost, compared to the majority they might have had.
    You do have to wonder about the 10% of the electorate that voted Remain and have stuck with the Conservatives. How much more Brexiting are they going to put up with?
    I suspect theyre well balanced people who have a life, and Brexit isnt the only thing in it.
    Brexit is the only thing in the Conservative party right now. So if they have a life, they would be well-advised to explore it elsewhere.
    Brexit seems to be the only thing in your life, which is sad.

    However in the wider UK - cost of living, housing, uni fees, infrastructure, are much more important to voters

    And in about 3 months time we'll have the annual NHS in crisis crisis

    I am intrigued by the idea that Brexit is not related to the cost of living, housing, university fees, infrastructure and the NHS. From where I sit, the kind of Brexit we get will pretty much determine how we are to deal with all of the above, as well as a whole lot more.

    Yes, 5% on the price of olives - whatever will we do.

    Yep - that's the only price the fall in the value of the pound has affected :-D

    Yes, there's also the price of a bottle of Scotch and a British holiday to foreigners, both making my life a great deal easier at the moment.
This discussion has been closed.