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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can Vince make a Brexit-exit work for the Lib Dems?

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,275

    Nah

    weve seen it , done it, got the T shirt and see life in a wider perspective

    the rebels of my youth live in big houses and do TV ads

    one day that will be you - it starts with having your own kids
    Haha well I am 56, happily married, no kids yet (or ever) and I think I have actually moved to the left in recent years (blame Cameron/Osborne). But never say never eh?
  • So it's an archaic pressure group kind of thing?
    I think that if Lib Dems started taking their intellectual inheritance more seriously then the party would end up with lots of distinctive positions. There is no reason why a liberal party should be moderate (other than to simultaneously appeal to socialist and conservative voters).

    If the party is to build a core vote of its own then it needs to be a bit more radical and distinctive. For example, the Liberal Party's old distributist Ownership For All agenda - opposition to state ownership and private monopoly combined with the maximum diffusion of private property - is ripe for renewal.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,780

    Haha well I am 56, happily married, no kids yet (or ever) and I think I have actually moved to the left in recent years (blame Cameron/Osborne). But never say never eh?
    lol

    so youre a rebel living in a big house ? :-)

    im also 56
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    The LibDems have held both Hereford and Ludlow in the past and are the only effective opposition in this area to the Tories ... and that only in some elections. Labour doesn't campaign or leaflet.

    The Liberal tradition in Wales and the borders dates back a very long time. Leominster should have gone Liberal in 1974 but the constituency boundary was gerrymandered to include parts of Wyre Forest. So they lost by 600. However, the new Tory MP Peter Temple-Morris was so 'wet' he crossed the floor and now sits as a Labour peer.
    As far as I know the boundary changes that take place every few years are done in a completely non-partisan way.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,275

    Mr. Pointer, not sure being in favour of gay rights is a left/right issue.

    Not any longer, I agree. But I still remember section 28.

    It's the long slow march to wards a more inclusive progressive world that gives me hope, no matter how dark the current times seem. :smile:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,275

    lol

    so youre a rebel living in a big house ? :-)

    im also 56
    Maybe. According to YouGov 50% of the 50-59 cohort who voted, voted Con or UKIP, 50% voted Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC so our age group is evenly split progressive / non-progressive.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,495

    The LibDems have held both Hereford and Ludlow in the past and are the only effective opposition in this area to the Tories ... and that only in some elections. Labour doesn't campaign or leaflet.

    The Liberal tradition in Wales and the borders dates back a very long time. Leominster should have gone Liberal in 1974 but the constituency boundary was gerrymandered to include parts of Wyre Forest. So they lost by 600. However, the new Tory MP Peter Temple-Morris was so 'wet' he crossed the floor and now sits as a Labour peer.
    By 'gerrymandered' I assume you mean the local government reorganisation and its creation of the county of Hereford & Worcester ?

    Although Wikipedia doesn't suggest there was much of a change:

    ' 1950-1974: The Municipal Borough of Leominster, the Urban Districts of Bromyard, Kington, and Ledbury, the Rural Districts of Bromyard, Kington, Ledbury, Leominster, and Weobley and Wigmore, and part of the Rural District of Hereford.

    1974-1983: The Municipal Borough of Leominster, the Urban District of Kington, the Rural Districts of Bromyard, Kington, Ledbury, Leominster, and Weobley and Wigmore, and part of the Rural District of Hereford. '

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leominster_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,460


    Dream on - you guys are a dying breed!

    Actually, a more considered response is, it depends on how far to the left the Tories move. 40 years ago the Cons embracing gay rights would have been unthinkable, for example.
    Equally unthinkable that they would have embraced Brexit, but public opinion can shift radically.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Maybe. According to YouGov 50% of the 50-59 cohort who voted, voted Con or UKIP, 50% voted Lab/LD/Green/SNP/PC so our age group is evenly split progressive / non-progressive.
    I think your " progressive " coalition might have a problem;

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/11/british-muslims-strong-sense-of-belonging-poll-homosexuality-sharia-law
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,495

    I think your " progressive " coalition might have a problem;

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/11/british-muslims-strong-sense-of-belonging-poll-homosexuality-sharia-law
    As 'progressive' politics now includes anti-Semitism why not homophobia as well ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220

    As 'progressive' politics now includes anti-Semitism why not homophobia as well ?
    https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/888512858371350528
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    IanB2 said:

    My concern, too. The positive scenario is that he gets us some airtime on the economy and Brexit whilst working closely with Swinson, building her prominence and experience ready for her to take over in 2019.

    The risk to this strategy is that Vince's ego drives him to see himself as more than an interim leader. On the other hand, even very egoistical people can become good mentors and developers late in their career, once they accept that their personal achievements are mostly done. We can only hope.
    Surely the best way to get LDs on the TV over the summer would have been to have a contested leadership election? Would also have the effect of allowing the candidates to develop policy positions, we could have spent the summer talking about drugs law reform and civil liberties, rather than the endless briefing and spinning and counter-briefing and counter-spinning on the EU exit negotiations that's what we are gonna get!

    Vince is obviously a known quantity to the party, but it would have been good for some of the other MPs to get their faces on TV and their ideas in the minds of the general public. Coronations rarely work out well in the long term.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,305

    People weren't just wandering around with big tumours they hadn't noticed were they?
    What an odd question. Are you saying people who die of cancer without treatment always have big, visible lumps? Or is it more likely that they just feel increasingly ill and die as (for example) their lungs give in.

    Anyway, I'll leave my last word to Cancer Research:
    http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2010/10/14/claims-that-cancer-is-only-a-‘modern-man-made-disease’-are-false-and-misleading/
    http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2015/02/04/why-are-cancer-rates-increasing/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673
    edited July 2017
    Personally I've moved back to the left as I get older - got impatient with centrism.

    Entertaining example of how the private sector can be just as idiot-bureaucratic as the public monopoly of caricature. I have a contract with BT with a year to run. I've moved out of my (rented) flat and am staying in lodgings while I look round. Since the flat is being taken over, I have to give up the line there.

    So I tell BT, and say of course I realise I need to keep paying the monthly bill, but the address will change, I'll let you know. OK?

    No. Unless I can give them another address within 2 weeks, they'll charge me a year's rental for premature termination, £350. So I say OK, I can give you the termporary lodgings but I don't actually want a new line there, it's just for the record, will let you know when I settle. No need for BT to do anything except collect my montlhy cash. OK?

    No. I must arrange for an engineer to call and install a new line. They won't charge anything significant (£9 for the equipment) but I MUST make an appointment, or they'll charge that £300.

    Can I book it, and then delay it repeatedly? No, that will be treated as termination.

    Sheesh!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/888512858371350528
    American university politics has gone completely nuts. Whatever happened to freedom of speech, and what is going to happen to all these snowflakes when they get to the real world and have to work with people who disagree with them?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,427
    Sandpit said:

    American university politics has gone completely nuts. Whatever happened to freedom of speech, and what is going to happen to all these snowflakes when they get to the real world and have to work with people who disagree with them?
    It's worse even than that. Reading the blog post it seems the whole thing was based on fake news. Dawkins hasn't said anything about Islam. He has had a go at religion in general.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Personally I've moved back to the left as I get older - got impatient with centrism.

    Entertaining example of how the private sector can be just as idiot-bureaucratic as the public monopoly of caricature. I have a contract with BT with a year to run. I've moved out of my (rented) flat and am staying in lodgings while I look round. Since the flat is being taken over, I have to give up the line there.

    So I tell BT, and say of course I realise I need to keep paying the monthly bill, but the address will change, I'll let you know. OK?

    No. Unless I can give them another address within 2 weeks, they'll charge me a year's rental for premature termination, £350. So I say OK, I can give you the termporary lodgings but I don't actually want a new line there, it's just for the record, will let you know when I settle. No need for BT to do anything except collect my montlhy cash. OK?

    No. I must arrange for an engineer to call and install a new line. They won't charge anything significant (£9 for the equipment) but I MUST make an appointment, or they'll charge that £300.

    Can I book it, and then delay it repeatedly? No, that will be treated as termination.

    Sheesh!

    You're now free to return to your youthful posing as a radical leftist. When it counted you followed Blair's war for money agenda. You must feel deep shame.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited July 2017

    It's worse even than that. Reading the blog post it seems the whole thing was based on fake news. Dawkins hasn't said anything about Islam. He has had a go at religion in general.
    Dawkins had a go at religion, really...?

    Next they'll be commenting on the defecation habits of ursine mammals in arborous areas. ;)

    But seriously, it's completely bonkers. University used to be a place where the mind got challenged and people who disagreed with each other would do it in the debating society and all go for a beer afterwards. One of the highlights of the university year used to be a "take the other side" debate, usually on something really contentious. Watching the Women's Society vs the Christian Union debate the motion that abortion should be available on demand - with each taking the opposite side of the argument - was very good indeed.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    Sandpit said:

    Dawkins had a go at religion, really...?

    Next they'll be commenting on the defecation habits of ursine mammals in arborous areas. ;)
    Some religions get more tetchy and offended at reasoned criticism than others!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Personally I've moved back to the left as I get older - got impatient with centrism.

    Entertaining example of how the private sector can be just as idiot-bureaucratic as the public monopoly of caricature. I have a contract with BT with a year to run. I've moved out of my (rented) flat and am staying in lodgings while I look round. Since the flat is being taken over, I have to give up the line there.

    So I tell BT, and say of course I realise I need to keep paying the monthly bill, but the address will change, I'll let you know. OK?

    No. Unless I can give them another address within 2 weeks, they'll charge me a year's rental for premature termination, £350. So I say OK, I can give you the termporary lodgings but I don't actually want a new line there, it's just for the record, will let you know when I settle. No need for BT to do anything except collect my montlhy cash. OK?

    No. I must arrange for an engineer to call and install a new line. They won't charge anything significant (£9 for the equipment) but I MUST make an appointment, or they'll charge that £300.

    Can I book it, and then delay it repeatedly? No, that will be treated as termination.

    Sheesh!

    There is a word for it. Extortion !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Looking at the OBR report on Osborne's first Budget it forecast that the UK's balance of payments deficit would be near zero for 2014 to 2016:

    http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/docs/junebudget_annexc.pdf

    Instead it turned out to be £250bn:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp

    Has there ever been a bigger subsidy than that which George Osborne gave to imported tat manufacturers and foreign hoteliers ?
    The OBR is a Tory front. It exists to justify Tory policy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,717

    What an odd question. Are you saying people who die of cancer without treatment always have big, visible lumps? Or is it more likely that they just feel increasingly ill and die as (for example) their lungs give in.

    Anyway, I'll leave my last word to Cancer Research:
    http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2010/10/14/claims-that-cancer-is-only-a-‘modern-man-made-disease’-are-false-and-misleading/
    http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2015/02/04/why-are-cancer-rates-increasing/
    I hope rather than believe that's your last word. I didn't say it's a man made modern disease, I am suggesting that its burgeoning success stems from our lifestyles - which is surely such a ridiculously obvious statement of fact it should need no defence.

    That being the case, one can't help but wonder why we aren't doing more to address the causes of cancer, rather than the frankly sinister new mindset that we will all get it and that we need to pump money into finding a 'cure', which is essentially like banging your head against a brick wall and looking for better headache pills.

    A cynic might suggest that this is because a lot of money and careers depend on continuing to find expensive therapies for cancer, and on the flip side, a great deal of money is made from selling the public cheap fake foods, cosmetic items etc.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    You can't do anything about the people who choose to agree with you either.
    Absolutely true. I eat babies.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2017

    I hope rather than believe that's your last word. I didn't say it's a man made modern disease, I am suggesting that its burgeoning success stems from our lifestyles - which is surely such a ridiculously obvious statement of fact it should need no defence.

    That being the case, one can't help but wonder why we aren't doing more to address the causes of cancer, rather than the frankly sinister new mindset that we will all get it and that we need to pump money into finding a 'cure', which is essentially like banging your head against a brick wall and looking for better headache pills.

    A cynic might suggest that this is because a lot of money and careers depend on continuing to find expensive therapies for cancer, and on the flip side, a great deal of money is made from selling the public cheap fake foods, cosmetic items etc.
    The main reason that more of us are getting cancer is that we are not dying of other things first, notably infectious disease, but also the halving of mortality in cardiovascular disease and stroke. Same goes for dementia. JJ is also right in that earlier diagnosis does give extended time with disease, even if prognosis is not affected.

    Lifestyle factors are important risks for cancer though, with diet beginning to replace smoking.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,780

    The main reason that more of us are getting cancer is that we are not dying of other things first, notably infectious disease, but also the halving of mortality in cardiovascular disease and stroke. Same goes for dementia. JJ is also right in that earlier diagnosis does give extended time with disease, even if prognosis is not affected.

    Lifestyle factors are important risks for cancer though, with diet beginning to replace smoking.
    Brexit obviously
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited July 2017
    Sandpit said:

    American university politics has gone completely nuts. Whatever happened to freedom of speech, and what is going to happen to all these snowflakes when they get to the real world and have to work with people who disagree with them?
    The intolerance spreading across us college campus is quite scary. There is the case of the liberal arts professor who objected to a non-white only on campus day as you know a bit racialist and now the student body are demanding he is sacked for simply giving his opinion and turning up to work as normal.

    Atgein the occasions he has tried to explain his position to them (why he should have to is already a step too far for me) , they just scream at him whenever he tries to speak.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Arsenal looking good for next season....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,717

    I'm sorry, I don't agree. The idea that everyone would have got cancer if they hadn't already been carried off by cholera is baloney. Cancer is affecting people younger and younger, ad are other lifestyle diseases.You are a doctor, and you see everything in terms of medicine - if you have a hammer everything looks like a nail.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Brexit obviously
    Amongst other effects including a rise in dementia rates!

    Mostly due to changing demographics in the UK, as we shift from to an older population.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I'm sorry, I don't agree. The idea that everyone would have got cancer if they hadn't already been carried off by cholera is baloney. Cancer is affecting people younger and younger, ad are other lifestyle diseases.You are a doctor, and you see everything in terms of medicine - if you have a hammer everything looks like a nail.
    You have the wrong doctor in your sights! I am always banging on about how our obesogenic, lazy, junkfood lifestyle is killing us young. I would include cancer along with diabetes in this frame.

    The effect of surviving infectious disease, stroke etc is to allow people to age enough to get cancer or dementia, both of which have steeply rising incidence by age.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,717

    You have the wrong doctor in your sights! I am always banging on about how our obesogenic, lazy, junkfood lifestyle is killing us young. I would include cancer along with diabetes in this frame.

    The effect of surviving infectious disease, stroke etc is to allow people to age enough to get cancer or dementia, both of which have steeply rising incidence by age.
    And I applaud you for doing so. But I would go further and say that even a lifetime of what is currently called a balanced diet cannot sustain good health, healthy babies, and long life. There are many reasons for this, often where commercial interests have influenced public health policies, partcularly in the USA.

    Incidence of cancer and dementia of course rises with age, but that's surely due to a cumulation of these liefstyle factors. Unless you believe we are programmed to get cancer or dementia.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    edited July 2017

    Arsenal looking good for next season....

    Shake off that small club syndrome man! :wink:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    malcolmg said:

    Kenneth Brannagh part was all sentimentality and stiff upper lip , but that was the only part of the film that was.
    I had the slight feeling that it was Brannagh's interpretation but that's just a guess. It's rare to make such a big film that isn't American written and directed but Nolan had earned the right to tell it as he wanted which is why it's so short on American shmaltz.
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