politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some numbers that could help TMay’s survival. Another poll, Yo
Comments
-
"A" Customs Union (rather than "The") with the EU would likely just require us to keep our tariff schedule in-line with the EU's.
As a transitional arrangement, this makes a lot of sense, as it would dramatically reduce paperwork for firms who trade with the EU. Longer-term, we could work on putting in place technology (electronic manifests with appropriate spot checks) that would enable us to leave this arrangement without putting an undue burden on firms.0 -
They do not like their EU deal, but if they wanted EU access they had to accept it. It is like the proposed UK/USA deal - we have a nice trade surplus with the USA and they are a far bigger market than us. Do you imagine that any deal we get from the USA will be allowed to increase OUR surplus? Of course not, they will try for a deal that benefits the USA as The Donald has already made clear "America comes first"RobD said:
Aren't they just saying the deal can't be better than their one with the EU?Beverley_C said:
Brexit means Brexit.rcs1000 said:This makes quite depressing reading:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/
Brexit will just expose us to trade deals worse than we have now but it will OK because we will be able to elect our own govts. Err.....0 -
Beverley_C - I suppose we must have paid, in today's money, about 1/2 trillion pounds to benefit from a free trade agreement with the EU? Perhaps, reading that link below, the extra legal work we might get from Korea makes it all worth it? But all sorts of agreements are London law anyway... and come to court here anyway.0
-
At the point of crisis, at the point of annihilation, survival is victory.Beverley_C said:
What benefits? There are none AFAICSCornishJohn said:What matters most is a deal that actually achieves the benefits of leaving the EU.
0 -
there aren't many polls because the pollsters are working out what went wrong...few would spend money commissioning polls at the moment...0
-
There seems to be a suggestion that Korean car manufacturers have had to agree a no compete clause on car emissions?0
-
-
@bbclaurak: This was not their plan at the start of the day..... https://twitter.com/BBCParliament/status/8869798530854952960
-
It depends what you mean by "better deal". The UK should be quite happy to offer deeper and more liberal access to its markets, particularly in services, than the EU.FF43 said:
In addition to the points raised in the article, Korea felt they got the worse of the deal with the EU. They won't actually want to replicate it with the UK.rcs1000 said:This makes quite depressing reading:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/
I see a few things the EU excluded - such as media and digital - we wouldn't have a problem with.
Trade deals are a win-win.0 -
Well if we bandying around sloppy figures, 43 years of our current trade with the EU is equivalent of about £21tn or over 40 times as much as that membership fee. And your point is?PAW said:Beverley_C - I suppose we must have paid, in today's money, about 1/2 trillion pounds to benefit from a free trade agreement with the EU? Perhaps, reading that link below, the extra legal work we might get from Korea makes it all worth it? But all sorts of agreements are London law anyway... and come to court here anyway.
The EU brought other benefits too, but what is the point? Leavers seem to want to leave regardless of any outcome. It all seems to be about scraping off the pesky foreigners and making sure they do not come here. Everything else seems to be secondary to that goal.0 -
This point - that the bargaining leverage was greater inside the EU than the UK could ever achieve alone - was made repeatedly during the referendum, but dismissed by Leave fanatics on the basis that we were such a big economy on our own that the world would be so eager to offer us whatever we wanted.SouthamObserver said:
It's the real world, though. The UK's negotiating leverage as a second tier country will not be that significant with a country that has an economy the size of South Korea's. Now imagine the situation with countries like the US, China and India.rcs1000 said:This makes quite depressing reading:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/0 -
Another concession to the masses incoming?Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: This was not their plan at the start of the day..... https://twitter.com/BBCParliament/status/886979853085495296
0 -
Is there a map for the ACTUAL route of HS2. Would be useful seeing ad I am trying to move house round the Sheffield part and all...
Station plans would be good too0 -
AFAIK Denmark has at least three if not four opt-outs one of which allows it to restrict property sales to foreigners. Blocking free movement of capital surely is as much a 'red light' to the EU as freedom of movement of labour under the Treaty of Rome?Richard_Tyndall said:
Apart from the ECJ, the Customs Union is the one bit we definitely want to leave. If we are inside it we are unable to make our own trade deals but will still not get the benefit of the single market. Far better to take the Norway Option, stay in the Single Market but leave the Customs Union.surbiton said:As a businessman, to me, the Customs Union is far more important. There is no way the referendum result conflicts with that. Turkey is in the CU and does not have any rights under FoM. I agree the single market is problematical since it is interlinked with Freedom of movement.
Denmark seems to manage to get on with the EU, stay inside, yet negotiate about as much special treatment as the UK wants.0 -
Brexit is already dead in the water. I wonder how long it will take for the winners to realise they've lost?Beverley_C said:
Brexit means Brexit.rcs1000 said:This makes quite depressing reading:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/0 -
0
-
There was an agreement that neither the EU not the Korean government would use emission standards as NTBs. Pretty much any major FTA we sign will have similar provisions.PAW said:There seems to be a suggestion that Korean car manufacturers have had to agree a no compete clause on car emissions?
0 -
err rightBeverley_C said:
Well if we bandying around sloppy figures, 43 years of our current trade with the EU is equivalent of about £21tn or over 40 times as much as that membership fee. And your point is?PAW said:Beverley_C - I suppose we must have paid, in today's money, about 1/2 trillion pounds to benefit from a free trade agreement with the EU? Perhaps, reading that link below, the extra legal work we might get from Korea makes it all worth it? But all sorts of agreements are London law anyway... and come to court here anyway.
The EU brought other benefits too, but what is the point? Leavers seem to want to leave regardless of any outcome. It all seems to be about scraping off the pesky foreigners and making sure they do not come here. Everything else seems to be secondary to that goal.
so we have to pay them to give us a huge trade deficit
how does that work ?0 -
The litmus test for this approach is how willing we would be to open up services to competition from low-wage countries with lots of English speakers. What are the chances we will offer Indian solicitors the ability to provide conveyancing services?Casino_Royale said:
It depends what you mean by "better deal". The UK should be quite happy to offer deeper and more liberal access to its markets, particularly in services, than the EU.FF43 said:
In addition to the points raised in the article, Korea felt they got the worse of the deal with the EU. They won't actually want to replicate it with the UK.rcs1000 said:This makes quite depressing reading:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/
I see a few things the EU excluded - such as media and digital - we wouldn't have a problem with.
Trade deals are a win-win.0 -
yeah youve sort of missed the pointIanB2 said:
This point - that the bargaining leverage was greater inside the EU than the UK could ever achieve alone - was made repeatedly during the referendum, but dismissed by Leave fanatics on the basis that we were such a big economy on our own that the world would be so eager to offer us whatever we wanted.SouthamObserver said:
It's the real world, though. The UK's negotiating leverage as a second tier country will not be that significant with a country that has an economy the size of South Korea's. Now imagine the situation with countries like the US, China and India.rcs1000 said:This makes quite depressing reading:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/
a deal tailored to the EUs desires is not as good as one tailored to our own requirements0 -
"Oh East London, is wonderful, oh East London is wonderful... its full of mosques, ISIS and acid...oh East Landaaan is wonderful "
“This is block war, this is it, this is beef, innit. No snitching, simple as that. No snitching.
In the war on the mandem, if someone got acid on their face, trust me, they did something. No ifs, no buts, they deserved that."
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8870077446449807360 -
Do you think 'our own requirements' will cater to the needs of Nottinghamshire any more at the UK level than they do at the EU level?Alanbrooke said:
yeah youve sort of missed the pointIanB2 said:
This point - that the bargaining leverage was greater inside the EU than the UK could ever achieve alone - was made repeatedly during the referendum, but dismissed by Leave fanatics on the basis that we were such a big economy on our own that the world would be so eager to offer us whatever we wanted.SouthamObserver said:
It's the real world, though. The UK's negotiating leverage as a second tier country will not be that significant with a country that has an economy the size of South Korea's. Now imagine the situation with countries like the US, China and India.rcs1000 said:This makes quite depressing reading:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/
a deal tailored to the EUs desires is not as good as one tailored to our own requirements0 -
Here, it's a disaster waiting to happen, the HS2 station is going to Meadowhall, because we all know Meadowhall never suffers traffic congestion.Pulpstar said:Is there a map for the ACTUAL route of HS2. Would be useful seeing ad I am trying to move house round the Sheffield part and all...
Station plans would be good too
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/536075/South_Yorkshire_Station_Options_Report_07072016.pdf0 -
Sits back and waits for incoming.
What is wrong with our politicians deciding tha leaving is wrong and will cause more pain than benefit?
They should have the courage of their convictions and say "no way Jose" ride the storm and see what happens. This is far bigger than the future of political parties and careers its our future. The "people" don't really care they just want whats best for them and their families. We have far bigger fish to fry0 -
yes, it's a smaller demoswilliamglenn said:
Do you think 'our own requirements' will cater to the needs of Nottinghamshire any more at the UK level than they do at the EU level?Alanbrooke said:
yeah youve sort of missed the pointIanB2 said:
This point - that the bargaining leverage was greater inside the EU than the UK could ever achieve alone - was made repeatedly during the referendum, but dismissed by Leave fanatics on the basis that we were such a big economy on our own that the world would be so eager to offer us whatever we wanted.SouthamObserver said:
It's the real world, though. The UK's negotiating leverage as a second tier country will not be that significant with a country that has an economy the size of South Korea's. Now imagine the situation with countries like the US, China and India.rcs1000 said:This makes quite depressing reading:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/
a deal tailored to the EUs desires is not as good as one tailored to our own requirements0 -
nichomar said:
Sits back and waits for incoming.
What is wrong with our politicians deciding tha leaving is wrong and will cause more pain than benefit?
They should have the courage of their convictions and say "no way Jose" ride the storm and see what happens. This is far bigger than the future of political parties and careers its our future. The "people" don't really care they just want whats best for them and their families. We have far bigger fish to fry
one minute youre telling us brexit is the biggest thing ever, next minute we have bigger fish to fry
what are they ?0 -
Yes, much easier for London to dominate a country than a continent.Alanbrooke said:
yes, it's a smaller demoswilliamglenn said:
Do you think 'our own requirements' will cater to the needs of Nottinghamshire any more at the UK level than they do at the EU level?Alanbrooke said:
yeah youve sort of missed the pointIanB2 said:
This point - that the bargaining leverage was greater inside the EU than the UK could ever achieve alone - was made repeatedly during the referendum, but dismissed by Leave fanatics on the basis that we were such a big economy on our own that the world would be so eager to offer us whatever we wanted.SouthamObserver said:
It's the real world, though. The UK's negotiating leverage as a second tier country will not be that significant with a country that has an economy the size of South Korea's. Now imagine the situation with countries like the US, China and India.rcs1000 said:This makes quite depressing reading:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/
a deal tailored to the EUs desires is not as good as one tailored to our own requirements0 -
Of course the 1/2 trillion is real money from real people's pockets, and the trade isn't all profit - and in anycase is vastly in the wrong direction. I am very struck to compare how other countries have rebuilt their towns with our money, and how our towns have deteriorated at the same time.0
-
to a pointwilliamglenn said:
Yes, much easier for London to dominate a country than a continent.Alanbrooke said:
yes, it's a smaller demoswilliamglenn said:
Do you think 'our own requirements' will cater to the needs of Nottinghamshire any more at the UK level than they do at the EU level?Alanbrooke said:
yeah youve sort of missed the pointIanB2 said:
This point - that the bargaining leverage was greater inside the EU than the UK could ever achieve alone - was made repeatedly during the referendum, but dismissed by Leave fanatics on the basis that we were such a big economy on our own that the world would be so eager to offer us whatever we wanted.SouthamObserver said:
It's the real world, though. The UK's negotiating leverage as a second tier country will not be that significant with a country that has an economy the size of South Korea's. Now imagine the situation with countries like the US, China and India.rcs1000 said:This makes quite depressing reading:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/
a deal tailored to the EUs desires is not as good as one tailored to our own requirements
when they overegg it the rest of the country hits back, hence brexit0 -
Well maybe health, housing, dementia care, the growing problems of young peoples debt, the deficit to name a few. These are the things that responsible politicians should be looking at not their fantacy world of who is prime minister and sacred cows.Alanbrooke said:nichomar said:Sits back and waits for incoming.
What is wrong with our politicians deciding tha leaving is wrong and will cause more pain than benefit?
They should have the courage of their convictions and say "no way Jose" ride the storm and see what happens. This is far bigger than the future of political parties and careers its our future. The "people" don't really care they just want whats best for them and their families. We have far bigger fish to fry
one minute youre telling us brexit is the biggest thing ever, next minute we have bigger fish to fry
what are they ?0 -
of course, so maybe you'll just stop ranting on about Brexit and discuss the issues at handnichomar said:
Well maybe health, housing, dementia care, the growing problems of young peoples debt, the deficit to name a few. These are the things that responsible politicians should be looking at not their fantacy world of who is prime minister and sacred cows.Alanbrooke said:nichomar said:Sits back and waits for incoming.
What is wrong with our politicians deciding tha leaving is wrong and will cause more pain than benefit?
They should have the courage of their convictions and say "no way Jose" ride the storm and see what happens. This is far bigger than the future of political parties and careers its our future. The "people" don't really care they just want whats best for them and their families. We have far bigger fish to fry
one minute youre telling us brexit is the biggest thing ever, next minute we have bigger fish to fry
what are they ?
TSE permitting natch0 -
Actually i dont rant on i express an opinion very rarely, if at all i respect others point of view and when i do post hope fore a similar response.Alanbrooke said:
of course, so maybe you'll just stop ranting on about Brexit and discuss the issues at handnichomar said:
Well maybe health, housing, dementia care, the growing problems of young peoples debt, the deficit to name a few. These are the things that responsible politicians should be looking at not their fantacy world of who is prime minister and sacred cows.Alanbrooke said:nichomar said:Sits back and waits for incoming.
What is wrong with our politicians deciding tha leaving is wrong and will cause more pain than benefit?
They should have the courage of their convictions and say "no way Jose" ride the storm and see what happens. This is far bigger than the future of political parties and careers its our future. The "people" don't really care they just want whats best for them and their families. We have far bigger fish to fry
one minute youre telling us brexit is the biggest thing ever, next minute we have bigger fish to fry
what are they ?
TSE permitting natch0 -
brexit brexit brexitnichomar said:
Actually i dont rant on i express an opinion very rarely, if at all i respect others point of view and when i do post hope fore a similar response.Alanbrooke said:
of course, so maybe you'll just stop ranting on about Brexit and discuss the issues at handnichomar said:
Well maybe health, housing, dementia care, the growing problems of young peoples debt, the deficit to name a few. These are the things that responsible politicians should be looking at not their fantacy world of who is prime minister and sacred cows.Alanbrooke said:nichomar said:Sits back and waits for incoming.
What is wrong with our politicians deciding tha leaving is wrong and will cause more pain than benefit?
They should have the courage of their convictions and say "no way Jose" ride the storm and see what happens. This is far bigger than the future of political parties and careers its our future. The "people" don't really care they just want whats best for them and their families. We have far bigger fish to fry
one minute youre telling us brexit is the biggest thing ever, next minute we have bigger fish to fry
what are they ?
TSE permitting natch
I cant recall a post of yours which didnt predict terminall decline
personally Ive been banging on about Uni fees, housing and lack of decent infrastructure for years and am quite happy to say so
0 -
You must be mistaking me for someone else, any issues i raise are normally questions seeking information. Less than 400 posts in two or three years is hardley ranting. Although i have been here since 2004 in a different incarnationnichomar said:
Actually i dont rant on i express an opinion very rarely, if at all i respect others point of view and when i do post hope fore a similar response.Alanbrooke said:
of course, so maybe you'll just stop ranting on about Brexit and discuss the issues at handnichomar said:
Well maybe health, housing, dementia care, the growing problems of young peoples debt, the deficit to name a few. These are the things that responsible politicians should be looking at not their fantacy world of who is prime minister and sacred cows.Alanbrooke said:nichomar said:Sits back and waits for incoming.
What is wrong with our politicians deciding tha leaving is wrong and will cause more pain than benefit?
They should have the courage of their convictions and say "no way Jose" ride the storm and see what happens. This is far bigger than the future of political parties and careers its our future. The "people" don't really care they just want whats best for them and their families. We have far bigger fish to fry
one minute youre telling us brexit is the biggest thing ever, next minute we have bigger fish to fry
what are they ?
TSE permitting natch0 -
Meadowhall? What a dumpTheScreamingEagles said:
Here, it's a disaster waiting to happen, the HS2 station is going to Meadowhall, because we all know Meadowhall never suffers traffic congestion.Pulpstar said:Is there a map for the ACTUAL route of HS2. Would be useful seeing ad I am trying to move house round the Sheffield part and all...
Station plans would be good too
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/536075/South_Yorkshire_Station_Options_Report_07072016.pdf
0 -
HOPE IS A WEAPON. SURVIVAL IS VICTORY.Fenman said:
Brexit is already dead in the water. I wonder how long it will take for the winners to realise they've lost?Beverley_C said:
Brexit means Brexit.rcs1000 said:This makes quite depressing reading:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/02/07/can-global-britain-forge-a-better-trade-deal-with-south-korea-this-is-why-its-unlikely/0 -
That is a non sequitur though in that the DUP could switch sides without an election - and bring about a change of Government. In the case of a Hung Parliament no party actually 'wins' in that there is nothing inevitable about the largest party being able to form a Government.GeoffM said:
As a neutral in this, can I suggest a simple way to decide this between you two easily, fairly, rationally and sensibly?ThreeQuidder said:
She won the election.MikeSmithson said:
She went into the election 3 years early to try increase her majority. She ended up losing a majority. That is failure.ThreeQuidder said:"In earlier times she would have been toppled within days. "
She won the election.
Q: Who is Prime Minister right now?
A:0 -
No way the DUP would back Corbynjustin124 said:
That is a non sequitur though in that the DUP could switch sides without an election - and bring about a change of Government. In the case of a Hung Parliament no party actually 'wins' in that there is nothing inevitable about the largest party being able to form a Government.GeoffM said:
As a neutral in this, can I suggest a simple way to decide this between you two easily, fairly, rationally and sensibly?ThreeQuidder said:
She won the election.MikeSmithson said:
She went into the election 3 years early to try increase her majority. She ended up losing a majority. That is failure.ThreeQuidder said:"In earlier times she would have been toppled within days. "
She won the election.
Q: Who is Prime Minister right now?
A:0 -
Denmark negotiated an opt out meaning there is a restriction on the sale of ownership of second properties to non residents. It applies equally to Danes living outside Denmark as well as to non Danes. As such everyone is treated equally whether they are Danish or another EU national. The equivalent would be to restrict the movement of UK citizens not resident in the UK so that the same restrictions could apply to all EU nationals.rural_voter said:
AFAIK Denmark has at least three if not four opt-outs one of which allows it to restrict property sales to foreigners. Blocking free movement of capital surely is as much a 'red light' to the EU as freedom of movement of labour under the Treaty of Rome?0 -
Very likely true - though not certain. It is entirely possible that they would prefer the continued leverage they would enjoy over a minority Government led by Corbyn to a majority Tory Government - were the polls to suggest that the latter was at all likely.Sunil_Prasannan said:
No way the DUP would back Corbynjustin124 said:
That is a non sequitur though in that the DUP could switch sides without an election - and bring about a change of Government. In the case of a Hung Parliament no party actually 'wins' in that there is nothing inevitable about the largest party being able to form a Government.GeoffM said:
As a neutral in this, can I suggest a simple way to decide this between you two easily, fairly, rationally and sensibly?ThreeQuidder said:
She won the election.MikeSmithson said:
She went into the election 3 years early to try increase her majority. She ended up losing a majority. That is failure.ThreeQuidder said:"In earlier times she would have been toppled within days. "
She won the election.
Q: Who is Prime Minister right now?
A:0 -
NEW THREAD
0
