politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Do voters think Corbyn is read
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Do voters think Corbyn is ready to be PM?
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Habib Butt and Leo Barasi to discuss the latest polling news and analysis of the week.
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Reselection back on the agenda....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/05/jeremy-corbyn-could-back-mandatory-reselection-labour-mps-amid/0 -
3rd like Gove!0
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Forth, like the bridge!!0
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Per BBC:
"Many students boasted on social media of having voted twice in last month's general election, an MP has claimed.
Conservative Sir Henry Bellingham said there was "clear evidence" of students saying they voted at their home and university addresses.
"Surely this is straightforward electoral fraud," he said.
Cabinet Office Minister Chris Skidmore promised to raise the "completely unacceptable" allegation with the Electoral Commission."
With postal votes available on demand, surely there is no strong reason for allowing people to register in two different locations.
So should the Government now change the law so this is no longer allowed?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-405091780 -
Sixtus like a Rees-Mogg
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Quintus Rees-Mogg0
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Relative of Andor Butt?0
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@seanjonesqc: Tried to change my Twitter name to Septimus Botolph Rumplestiltskin Rees-Mogg #DENIED0
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@Mortimer How does that counter the assertion that she has a billion quid to give to the DUP but no money for public sector workers? This looks bad for the Tories.0
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Could check after the fact. People who are registered twice get different coloured ballot papers. The ballot numbers of these ballots are entered onto a database after the election by each authority. If a duplicate appears, they ask the courts to get permission to find out who it was, and then they prosecute. After the verification the database is destroyed.MikeL said:Per BBC:
"Many students boasted on social media of having voted twice in last month's general election, an MP has claimed.
Conservative Sir Henry Bellingham said there was "clear evidence" of students saying they voted at their home and university addresses.
"Surely this is straightforward electoral fraud," he said.
Cabinet Office Minister Chris Skidmore promised to raise the "completely unacceptable" allegation with the Electoral Commission."
With postal votes available on demand, surely there is no strong reason for allowing people to register in two different locations.
So should the Government now change the law so this is no longer allowed?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40509178
It wouldn't prevent fraud, but it would mean anyone who did it was extremely likely to be caught and prosecuted.0 -
She doesn't have any money to give to the DUP. The DUP is not Northern Ireland any more than the SNP is Scotland.The_Apocalypse said:@Mortimer How does that counter the assertion that she has a billion quid to give to the DUP but no money for public sector workers? This looks bad for the Tories.
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For a start, not the DUP, but NI, but more significantly, it undermined the premise of the question, which was about people leaving professions like Teaching because the pay was 'low'*. By showing the figures were wrong she took out the foundation of the question...The_Apocalypse said:@Mortimer How does that counter the assertion that she has a billion quid to give to the DUP but no money for public sector workers? This looks bad for the Tories.
*All teachers my age have earned more than me for all but 3 years of the last 10.0 -
Of course it looks bad.The_Apocalypse said:@Mortimer How does that counter the assertion that she has a billion quid to give to the DUP but no money for public sector workers? This looks bad for the Tories.
But the reality is that the money given to the DUP is peanuts - it's not £1bn per year - most is over 2 years, some is over 5 years. I think it's £470m in Year 1.
In contrast I believe the deficit for 2016/17 came in £5bn below the forecast made at the Budget in March 2017 - ie just a few weeks before the end of the year.
However, as discussed many times on here, if you are having to explain the detail you've already lost the argument.
Paul Johnson wrote an article in The Times yesterday saying any Government can always find the money for any one particular thing - but what actually matters is that the Budget as a whole makes sense.0 -
The Third Forth Bridge will open in September.DavidBrackenbury said:Forth, like the bridge!!
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Since we cannot trust the polls, how can we deduce anything from them.??0
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Any news on when the fourth is due?FF43 said:
The Third Forth Bridge will open in September.DavidBrackenbury said:Forth, like the bridge!!
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There are already threeFF43 said:
The Third Forth Bridge will open in September.DavidBrackenbury said:Forth, like the bridge!!
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FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?Charles said:
Just came from a really really downbeat economic briefing...rkrkrk said:
Better than evens on Tories getting most seats would be the bet I'd go for.JennyFreeman said:You write off this lady at your peril:
https://order-order.com/2017/07/05/mays-defiant-defence-austerity/
Here's a scenario:
The Corbyn lustre fades gradually. Brexit goes through and the UK economy begins to bounce. The deficit is dealt with (if not removed) and, most importantly of all, the May camp learn from the awful mistakes of this last election campaign.
Worth betting on a Conservative victory in 2022?
Doubt May will be leader though in 2022.
As an aside - I doubt the economy will bounce from Brexit. The short term risk is downside.
A transitional deal would avoid that but it won't cause a bounce.
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
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and @ThreeQuidder The point still stands though.Mortimer said:
For a start, not the DUP, but NI, but more significantly, it undermined the premise of the question, which was about people leaving professions like Teaching because the pay was 'low'*. By showing the figures were wrong she took out the foundation of the question...The_Apocalypse said:@Mortimer How does that counter the assertion that she has a billion quid to give to the DUP but no money for public sector workers? This looks bad for the Tories.
*All teachers my age have earned more than me for all but 3 years of the last 10.
The controversy surrounding the public sector pay cap is more than that single question in PMQs - given that it was an issue during the GE campaign. This a wider issue related to people's growing sense of fatigue in regard to austerity, more than anything else. Remember TMay and that nurse on QT? Back then she looked as bad as the neoliberal posh boys you spent the election deriding. She told that nurse that there was no magic money tree - that was the justification she gave for keeping the public sector pay cap, not 'well we have more doctors and nurses now so....' Given that we don't have a magic money tree, many will ask the question how has May found one in order to give a billion quid to give to NI?0 -
Unreal in what way? The world seems pretty real.Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?Charles said:
Just came from a really really downbeat economic briefing...rkrkrk said:
Better than evens on Tories getting most seats would be the bet I'd go for.JennyFreeman said:You write off this lady at your peril:
https://order-order.com/2017/07/05/mays-defiant-defence-austerity/
Here's a scenario:
The Corbyn lustre fades gradually. Brexit goes through and the UK economy begins to bounce. The deficit is dealt with (if not removed) and, most importantly of all, the May camp learn from the awful mistakes of this last election campaign.
Worth betting on a Conservative victory in 2022?
Doubt May will be leader though in 2022.
As an aside - I doubt the economy will bounce from Brexit. The short term risk is downside.
A transitional deal would avoid that but it won't cause a bounce.
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when0 -
Asset valuations, for one.Jonathan said:
Unreal in what way? The world seems pretty real.Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?Charles said:
Just came from a really really downbeat economic briefing...rkrkrk said:
Better than evens on Tories getting most seats would be the bet I'd go for.JennyFreeman said:You write off this lady at your peril:
https://order-order.com/2017/07/05/mays-defiant-defence-austerity/
Here's a scenario:
The Corbyn lustre fades gradually. Brexit goes through and the UK economy begins to bounce. The deficit is dealt with (if not removed) and, most importantly of all, the May camp learn from the awful mistakes of this last election campaign.
Worth betting on a Conservative victory in 2022?
Doubt May will be leader though in 2022.
As an aside - I doubt the economy will bounce from Brexit. The short term risk is downside.
A transitional deal would avoid that but it won't cause a bounce.
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
The whole thing is propped up on cheap money and QE.0 -
That might have cost the Tories Canterbury.MikeL said:Per BBC:
"Many students boasted on social media of having voted twice in last month's general election, an MP has claimed.
Conservative Sir Henry Bellingham said there was "clear evidence" of students saying they voted at their home and university addresses.
"Surely this is straightforward electoral fraud," he said.
Cabinet Office Minister Chris Skidmore promised to raise the "completely unacceptable" allegation with the Electoral Commission."
With postal votes available on demand, surely there is no strong reason for allowing people to register in two different locations.
So should the Government now change the law so this is no longer allowed?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-405091780 -
Well that's uplifting!Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
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How much do you think it would cost to give the public sector, say, a 3% pay riseThe_Apocalypse said:
and @ThreeQuidder The point still stands though.Mortimer said:
For a start, not the DUP, but NI, but more significantly, it undermined the premise of the question, which was about people leaving professions like Teaching because the pay was 'low'*. By showing the figures were wrong she took out the foundation of the question...The_Apocalypse said:@Mortimer How does that counter the assertion that she has a billion quid to give to the DUP but no money for public sector workers? This looks bad for the Tories.
*All teachers my age have earned more than me for all but 3 years of the last 10.
The controversy surrounding the public sector pay cap is more than that single question in PMQs - given that it was an issue during the GE campaign. This a wider issue related to people's growing sense of fatigue in regard to austerity, more than anything else. Remember TMay and that nurse on QT? Back then she looked as bad as the neoliberal posh boys you spent the election deriding. She told that nurse that there was no magic money - that was the justification she gave for keeping the public sector pay cap, not 'well we have more doctors and nurses now so....' Given that we don't have a magic money tree, many will ask the question how has May found one in order to give a billion quid to give to NI?
2bn 6bn 10bn or 20 bn? I am guessing at 6-10 billion.
I billion for the majority was small change.0 -
You only have to look at lots of the "hot" tech valuations. They are just absolutely bonkers for companies which don't make any money, don't appear to have any real idea how to make any (and whose goal appears to be hope that Google or Apple buys us) and with little in the way of tech that can't be replicated.Charles said:
Asset valuations, for one.Jonathan said:
Unreal in what way? The world seems pretty real.Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?Charles said:
Just came from a really really downbeat economic briefing...rkrkrk said:
Better than evens on Tories getting most seats would be the bet I'd go for.JennyFreeman said:You write off this lady at your peril:
https://order-order.com/2017/07/05/mays-defiant-defence-austerity/
Here's a scenario:
The Corbyn lustre fades gradually. Brexit goes through and the UK economy begins to bounce. The deficit is dealt with (if not removed) and, most importantly of all, the May camp learn from the awful mistakes of this last election campaign.
Worth betting on a Conservative victory in 2022?
Doubt May will be leader though in 2022.
As an aside - I doubt the economy will bounce from Brexit. The short term risk is downside.
A transitional deal would avoid that but it won't cause a bounce.
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
The whole thing is propped up on cheap money and QE.0 -
I strongly suspect it was a smaller factor than Brazier reneging on his promise not to stand again.Casino_Royale said:
That might have cost the Tories Canterbury.MikeL said:Per BBC:
"Many students boasted on social media of having voted twice in last month's general election, an MP has claimed.
Conservative Sir Henry Bellingham said there was "clear evidence" of students saying they voted at their home and university addresses.
"Surely this is straightforward electoral fraud," he said.
Cabinet Office Minister Chris Skidmore promised to raise the "completely unacceptable" allegation with the Electoral Commission."
With postal votes available on demand, surely there is no strong reason for allowing people to register in two different locations.
So should the Government now change the law so this is no longer allowed?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-405091780 -
My argument is that it looks bad for the Tories and that May's argument does not effectively counter Labour's. That was my point in the previous thread and I repeated again in this one.SquareRoot said:
How much do you think it would cost to give the public sector, say, a 3% pay riseThe_Apocalypse said:
and @ThreeQuidder The point still stands though.Mortimer said:
For a start, not the DUP, but NI, but more significantly, it undermined the premise of the question, which was about people leaving professions like Teaching because the pay was 'low'*. By showing the figures were wrong she took out the foundation of the question...The_Apocalypse said:@Mortimer How does that counter the assertion that she has a billion quid to give to the DUP but no money for public sector workers? This looks bad for the Tories.
*All teachers my age have earned more than me for all but 3 years of the last 10.
The controversy surrounding the public sector pay cap is more than that single question in PMQs - given that it was an issue during the GE campaign. This a wider issue related to people's growing sense of fatigue in regard to austerity, more than anything else. Remember TMay and that nurse on QT? Back then she looked as bad as the neoliberal posh boys you spent the election deriding. She told that nurse that there was no magic money - that was the justification she gave for keeping the public sector pay cap, not 'well we have more doctors and nurses now so....' Given that we don't have a magic money tree, many will ask the question how has May found one in order to give a billion quid to give to NI?
2bn 6bn 10bn or 20 bn? I am guessing at 6-10 billion.
I billion for the majority was small change.0 -
I did warn you!rkrkrk said:
Well that's uplifting!Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when0 -
I have always said at some point interest rates have to return to historic levels of 4-5%. When that happens whoever is holding the hot potato of government is going to have one hell of a time trying to calm the shit storm of all those who have never known anything other than 1% rates and have mortgaged accordingly.0
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Hence Boris is leading the Tory charge to end the public sector pay capThe_Apocalypse said:
My argument is that it looks bad for the Tories and that May's argument does not effectively counter Labour's. That was my point in the previous thread and I repeated again in this one.SquareRoot said:
How much do you think it would cost to give the public sector, say, a 3% pay riseThe_Apocalypse said:
and @ThreeQuidder The point still stands though.Mortimer said:
For a start, not the DUP, but NI, but more significantly, it undermined the premise of the question, which was about people leaving professions like Teaching because the pay was 'low'*. By showing the figures were wrong she took out the foundation of the question...The_Apocalypse said:@Mortimer How does that counter the assertion that she has a billion quid to give to the DUP but no money for public sector workers? This looks bad for the Tories.
*All teachers my age have earned more than me for all but 3 years of the last 10.
The controversy surrounding the public sector pay cap is more than that single question in PMQs - given that it was an issue during the GE campaign. This a wider issue related to people's growing sense of fatigue in regard to austerity, more than anything else. Remember TMay and that nurse on QT? Back then she looked as bad as the neoliberal posh boys you spent the election deriding. She told that nurse that there was no magic money - that was the justification she gave for keeping the public sector pay cap, not 'well we have more doctors and nurses now so....' Given that we don't have a magic money tree, many will ask the question how has May found one in order to give a billion quid to give to NI?
2bn 6bn 10bn or 20 bn? I am guessing at 6-10 billion.
I billion for the majority was small change.0 -
You have to love the BofE for slashing rates to 0.000025% or whatever it is atm and then harrumphing fiercely about the fact that consumer debt is getting out of hand.Charles said:
Asset valuations, for one.Jonathan said:
Unreal in what way? The world seems pretty real.Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?Charles said:
Just came from a really really downbeat economic briefing...rkrkrk said:
Better than evens on Tories getting most seats would be the bet I'd go for.JennyFreeman said:You write off this lady at your peril:
https://order-order.com/2017/07/05/mays-defiant-defence-austerity/
Here's a scenario:
The Corbyn lustre fades gradually. Brexit goes through and the UK economy begins to bounce. The deficit is dealt with (if not removed) and, most importantly of all, the May camp learn from the awful mistakes of this last election campaign.
Worth betting on a Conservative victory in 2022?
Doubt May will be leader though in 2022.
As an aside - I doubt the economy will bounce from Brexit. The short term risk is downside.
A transitional deal would avoid that but it won't cause a bounce.
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
The whole thing is propped up on cheap money and QE.0 -
I thought we already found that out in 2008?Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?Charles said:
Just came from a really really downbeat economic briefing...rkrkrk said:
Better than evens on Tories getting most seats would be the bet I'd go for.JennyFreeman said:You write off this lady at your peril:
https://order-order.com/2017/07/05/mays-defiant-defence-austerity/
Here's a scenario:
The Corbyn lustre fades gradually. Brexit goes through and the UK economy begins to bounce. The deficit is dealt with (if not removed) and, most importantly of all, the May camp learn from the awful mistakes of this last election campaign.
Worth betting on a Conservative victory in 2022?
Doubt May will be leader though in 2022.
As an aside - I doubt the economy will bounce from Brexit. The short term risk is downside.
A transitional deal would avoid that but it won't cause a bounce.
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when0 -
On topic... Ordering a steak medium well done or well done is just terrible. A crime against flavour and meat.0
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Trump has spoken 'with Italy' ttps://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/8818395231262720000
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Not for 30 votes.ThreeQuidder said:
I strongly suspect it was a smaller factor than Brazier reneging on his promise not to stand again.Casino_Royale said:
That might have cost the Tories Canterbury.MikeL said:Per BBC:
"Many students boasted on social media of having voted twice in last month's general election, an MP has claimed.
Conservative Sir Henry Bellingham said there was "clear evidence" of students saying they voted at their home and university addresses.
"Surely this is straightforward electoral fraud," he said.
Cabinet Office Minister Chris Skidmore promised to raise the "completely unacceptable" allegation with the Electoral Commission."
With postal votes available on demand, surely there is no strong reason for allowing people to register in two different locations.
So should the Government now change the law so this is no longer allowed?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-405091780 -
SeanT going a bit John Lennon over on Twitter.
Says he's totally done with politics, and talking about it.0 -
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Does that mean his Corbynista girlfriend dumped him?Casino_Royale said:SeanT going a bit John Lennon over on Twitter.
Says he's totally done with politics, and talking about it.0 -
I give that two weeks tops.Casino_Royale said:SeanT going a bit John Lennon over on Twitter.
Says he's totally done with politics, and talking about it.0 -
So that just leaves his latest travels, his latest bestseller, his latest romantic liaison with a young Corbynista, Primrose Hill house prices, sport, his latest restaurant critique.....Casino_Royale said:SeanT going a bit John Lennon over on Twitter.
Says he's totally done with politics, and talking about it.0 -
Maybe he went on a "cuts give me the HORN" rantScott_P said:
Does that mean his Corbynista girlfriend dumped him?Casino_Royale said:SeanT going a bit John Lennon over on Twitter.
Says he's totally done with politics, and talking about it.0 -
Just saw Paul Volcker (my all time fav Fed Chairman)'s analogy:FrancisUrquhart said:I have always said at some point interest rates have to return to historic levels of 4-5%. When that happens whoever is holding the hot potato of government is going to have one hell of a time trying to calm the shit storm of all those who have never known anything other than 1% rates and have mortgaged accordingly.
QE is like being in a plane that has never been flown before, with an unqualified pilot at the controls.
They've got it off the ground, and are flying it ok.
But landing the hardest part...and they don't even know where the airport is...0 -
0
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I can well understand that people are "tired of austerity", but it worries me that we're dependent on other countries lending us money to live at the standard we believe is our right.Charles said:
I did warn you!rkrkrk said:
Well that's uplifting!Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
Suppose the lenders pulled the plug?
Good evening, everyone.0 -
It's the Bank of England buying the government debt, not new investors...AnneJGP said:
I can well understand that people are "tired of austerity", but it worries me that we're dependent on other countries lending us money to live at the standard we believe is our right.Charles said:
I did warn you!rkrkrk said:
Well that's uplifting!Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
Suppose the lenders pulled the plug?
Good evening, everyone.0 -
You can't escape pb.AlastairMeeks said:
I give that two weeks tops.Casino_Royale said:SeanT going a bit John Lennon over on Twitter.
Says he's totally done with politics, and talking about it.0 -
SeanT probably is still shocked by that exit poll0
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A rule of thumb is for bank rate to be 3% above inflation and the inflation target is 2%. So Bank Rate of 5%.FrancisUrquhart said:I have always said at some point interest rates have to return to historic levels of 4-5%. When that happens whoever is holding the hot potato of government is going to have one hell of a time trying to calm the shit storm of all those who have never known anything other than 1% rates and have mortgaged accordingly.
In turn this means mortgage rates of 7/8% depending on the fixed term.
However, the B of E will use capital controls to keep borrowing down rather than raising bank rate for the next few years until Brexit is out of the way. So expect Gilt prices and equity prices to stay high in the meantime because expectations for interest rates will remain low.0 -
'Guess this is what normal people feel like. Who is the Home Secretary? What is a Shadow Cabinet? Why should I care? Brilliant'AlastairMeeks said:
I give that two weeks tops.Casino_Royale said:SeanT going a bit John Lennon over on Twitter.
Says he's totally done with politics, and talking about it.
https://mobile.twitter.com/thomasknox/status/8826485577188352010 -
So it really is a magic money tree?Charles said:
It's the Bank of England buying the government debt, not new investors...AnneJGP said:
I can well understand that people are "tired of austerity", but it worries me that we're dependent on other countries lending us money to live at the standard we believe is our right.Charles said:
I did warn you!rkrkrk said:
Well that's uplifting!Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
Suppose the lenders pulled the plug?
Good evening, everyone.0 -
We have had years of "Borrow borrow borrow keep the economy afloat!" What the hell did they think would happen?Ishmael_Z said:You have to love the BofE for slashing rates to 0.000025% or whatever it is atm and then harrumphing fiercely about the fact that consumer debt is getting out of hand.
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The show trials have begun! Corbyn for Supreme Leader!!!The_Apocalypse said:
(and all the men have to get a haircut identical to Comrade Corbyn Je-Remey)0 -
Didn't some people on here go crazy about the potential of China's car-straddling bus?
Oh dear:
https://arstechnica.co.uk/gadgets/2017/07/china-elevated-bus-scam/
Despite this, it was a more sensible transport idea than the human-jam making Hyperloop.
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There is a big difference between answering to the 5% of Labour members who attend CLP meetings and the minority of those who vote for organised slates of candidates in order to dominate them and the 50% who would attend a meeting in the event of a bid to deselect an MP. She shouldn't be unduly worried.Scott_P said:
Anyway, given that ISIS are now on their last legs thanks to the support the UK and others are giving to their opponents, who is it that should really be making apologies for that Syria vote?0 -
Wholly unsurprising:
"Google's DeepMind AI arm—which was given access to the personal medical records of 1.6 million NHS patients on an "inappropriate legal basis"—has thrown the Royal Free NHS Foundation Trust into hot water, after the UK's Information Commissioner's Office confirmed on Monday that the hospital had breached data law."
https://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy/2017/07/google-deepmind-nhs-deal-broke-uk-data-law/0 -
The quicker the showtrials begin, the sooner Chuka Umunna can start an En Marche style breakaway partyBeverley_C said:
The show trials have begun! Corbyn for Supreme Leader!!!The_Apocalypse said:
(and all the men have to get a haircut identical to Comrade Corbyn Je-Remey)0 -
Its classic China. The government demand a solution, people put together something quickly and it is then found to not really work as required and it is binned, and they move onto something else.JosiasJessop said:Didn't some people on here go crazy about the potential of China's car-straddling bus?
Oh dear:
https://arstechnica.co.uk/gadgets/2017/07/china-elevated-bus-scam/
Despite this, it was a more sensible transport idea than the human-jam making Hyperloop.
"When the TEB turned a corner, every vehicle underneath had to wait for the manoeuvre to complete before going around the corner themselves. And no one had really worked out how to solve the issue of cars driving into the "legs" of the bus."
Can you imagine Elon Musk putting up with something like that?0 -
Chuka Umunna will be in deep, deep trouble under Comrade Corbyn. Have you not seen Mr Umunna's standard "cut"? He may get sent to work on state farms in the desolation of Lincolnshire.HYUFD said:
The quicker the showtrials begin, the sooner Chuka Umunna can start an En Marche style breakaway partyBeverley_C said:
The show trials have begun! Corbyn for Supreme Leader!!!The_Apocalypse said:
(and all the men have to get a haircut identical to Comrade Corbyn Je-Remey)0 -
A better way of phrasing that would be "How much do you think it would cost not to cut public sector pay by, say, another 2% next year? And by 2% the year after that. And by..... " (repeat ad nauseum).SquareRoot said:
How much do you think it would cost to give the public sector, say, a 3% pay riseThe_Apocalypse said:
and @ThreeQuidder The point still stands though.Mortimer said:
For a start, not the DUP, but NI, but more significantly, it undermined the premise of the question, which was about people leaving professions like Teaching because the pay was 'low'*. By showing the figures were wrong she took out the foundation of the question...The_Apocalypse said:@Mortimer How does that counter the assertion that she has a billion quid to give to the DUP but no money for public sector workers? This looks bad for the Tories.
*All teachers my age have earned more than me for all but 3 years of the last 10.
The controversy surrounding the public sector pay cap is more than that single question in PMQs - given that it was an issue during the GE campaign. This a wider issue related to people's growing sense of fatigue in regard to austerity, more than anything else. Remember TMay and that nurse on QT? Back then she looked as bad as the neoliberal posh boys you spent the election deriding. She told that nurse that there was no magic money - that was the justification she gave for keeping the public sector pay cap, not 'well we have more doctors and nurses now so....' Given that we don't have a magic money tree, many will ask the question how has May found one in order to give a billion quid to give to NI?
2bn 6bn 10bn or 20 bn? I am guessing at 6-10 billion.
I billion for the majority was small change.
The cap is 1%, while the CPI is currently at 2.9% and rising. A difference of 1.9%. The RPI (which the Government conveniently never mentions now) is even higher.0 -
Not a nightclub, top class restaurant or Armani store in sight. Hell!Beverley_C said:
Chuka Umunna will be in deep, deep trouble under Comrade Corbyn. Have you not seen Mr Umunna's standard "cut"? He may get sent to work on state farms in the desolation of Lincolnshire.HYUFD said:
The quicker the showtrials begin, the sooner Chuka Umunna can start an En Marche style breakaway partyBeverley_C said:
The show trials have begun! Corbyn for Supreme Leader!!!The_Apocalypse said:
(and all the men have to get a haircut identical to Comrade Corbyn Je-Remey)0 -
He could be surrounded by cabbages. They have lots of them in Lincolnshire. Different from the Westminster variety though ....HYUFD said:
Not a nightclub, top class restaurant or Armani store in sight. Hell!Beverley_C said:
Chuka Umunna will be in deep, deep trouble under Comrade Corbyn. Have you not seen Mr Umunna's standard "cut"? He may get sent to work on state farms in the desolation of Lincolnshire.HYUFD said:
The quicker the showtrials begin, the sooner Chuka Umunna can start an En Marche style breakaway partyBeverley_C said:
The show trials have begun! Corbyn for Supreme Leader!!!The_Apocalypse said:
(and all the men have to get a haircut identical to Comrade Corbyn Je-Remey) 0 -
-
Why do we bother paying MI5 to protect us from spies when the powers that be just hand over any data requested?JosiasJessop said:Wholly unsurprising:
"Google's DeepMind AI arm—which was given access to the personal medical records of 1.6 million NHS patients on an "inappropriate legal basis"—has thrown the Royal Free NHS Foundation Trust into hot water, after the UK's Information Commissioner's Office confirmed on Monday that the hospital had breached data law."
https://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy/2017/07/google-deepmind-nhs-deal-broke-uk-data-law/0 -
The same argument could be made about Android phones, iPhones, hotmail and gmail. As for Facebook's Apps....DecrepitJohnL said:
Why do we bother paying MI5 to protect us from spies when the powers that be just hand over any data requested?JosiasJessop said:Wholly unsurprising:
"Google's DeepMind AI arm—which was given access to the personal medical records of 1.6 million NHS patients on an "inappropriate legal basis"—has thrown the Royal Free NHS Foundation Trust into hot water, after the UK's Information Commissioner's Office confirmed on Monday that the hospital had breached data law."
https://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy/2017/07/google-deepmind-nhs-deal-broke-uk-data-law/0 -
To be fair, Musk's solution is even more ridiculous:FrancisUrquhart said:
Its classic China. The government demand a solution, people put together something quickly and it is then found to not really work as required and it is binned, and they move onto something else.JosiasJessop said:Didn't some people on here go crazy about the potential of China's car-straddling bus?
Oh dear:
https://arstechnica.co.uk/gadgets/2017/07/china-elevated-bus-scam/
Despite this, it was a more sensible transport idea than the human-jam making Hyperloop.
"When the TEB turned a corner, every vehicle underneath had to wait for the manoeuvre to complete before going around the corner themselves. And no one had really worked out how to solve the issue of cars driving into the "legs" of the bus."
Can you imagine Elon Musk putting up with something like that?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5V_VzRrSBI0 -
"Worst decade for UK productivity since Napoleon
Not since the times of George III, Napoleon and war with America has the UK suffered such a long period of low productivity."
http://news.sky.com/story/worst-decade-for-uk-productivity-since-napolean-109383300 -
Cabbages and Leave voters, what a combinationBeverley_C said:
He could be surrounded by cabbages. They have lots of them in Lincolnshire. Different from the Westminster variety though ....HYUFD said:
Not a nightclub, top class restaurant or Armani store in sight. Hell!Beverley_C said:
Chuka Umunna will be in deep, deep trouble under Comrade Corbyn. Have you not seen Mr Umunna's standard "cut"? He may get sent to work on state farms in the desolation of Lincolnshire.HYUFD said:
The quicker the showtrials begin, the sooner Chuka Umunna can start an En Marche style breakaway partyBeverley_C said:
The show trials have begun! Corbyn for Supreme Leader!!!The_Apocalypse said:
(and all the men have to get a haircut identical to Comrade Corbyn Je-Remey)0 -
That is the first good piece of Brexit news I have seen in some time.Scott_P said:twitter.com/kadhimshubber/status/882629874397138945
0 -
It reminds me of a Dr Who episode where everyone is underground in their cars on some sort of road. Maybe Mr Musk is a fan of the Dr?JosiasJessop said:To be fair, Musk's solution is even more ridiculous:
https://www. youtube.com/watch?v=u5V_VzRrSBI0 -
Really they're just printing money, but if you call it something like "Quantitative Easing" or "QE" no one will notice.AnneJGP said:
So it really is a magic money tree?Charles said:
It's the Bank of England buying the government debt, not new investors...AnneJGP said:
I can well understand that people are "tired of austerity", but it worries me that we're dependent on other countries lending us money to live at the standard we believe is our right.Charles said:
I did warn you!rkrkrk said:
Well that's uplifting!Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
Suppose the lenders pulled the plug?
Good evening, everyone.0 -
A) The money is for Northern Ireland, NOT the DUPThe_Apocalypse said:@Mortimer How does that counter the assertion that she has a billion quid to give to the DUP but no money for public sector workers? This looks bad for the Tories.
b) The Northern Irish are UK taxpayers
C) £1 billion over two years is a bargain compared to the £8.5 billion NET we give to Brussels each year0 -
It just convinces me further that the recession has started its early phases.AndyJS said:"Worst decade for UK productivity since Napoleon
Not since the times of George III, Napoleon and war with America has the UK suffered such a long period of low productivity."
http://news.sky.com/story/worst-decade-for-uk-productivity-since-napolean-109383300 -
When the Fed starts unwinding QE and the ECB stops printing money the effective supply
of government bonds will significantly increase.
I wonder what will happen to asset prices generally
0 -
So your original gloomy scenario is because of what will happen when the music stops, so to speak? There has to be a payback time somewhere along the line and whatever the underlying cause, it's that which concerns me.Charles said:
Really they're just printing money, but if you call it something like "Quantitative Easing" or "QE" no one will notice.AnneJGP said:
So it really is a magic money tree?Charles said:
It's the Bank of England buying the government debt, not new investors...AnneJGP said:
I can well understand that people are "tired of austerity", but it worries me that we're dependent on other countries lending us money to live at the standard we believe is our right.Charles said:
I did warn you!rkrkrk said:
Well that's uplifting!Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
Suppose the lenders pulled the plug?
Good evening, everyone.0 -
Yes it could and I have made it. And people are bugging their own homes with voice-activated assistants. But the government, or the Establishment if you like because both parties are at it, is on another scale.Beverley_C said:
The same argument could be made about Android phones, iPhones, hotmail and gmail. As for Facebook's Apps....DecrepitJohnL said:
Why do we bother paying MI5 to protect us from spies when the powers that be just hand over any data requested?JosiasJessop said:Wholly unsurprising:
"Google's DeepMind AI arm—which was given access to the personal medical records of 1.6 million NHS patients on an "inappropriate legal basis"—has thrown the Royal Free NHS Foundation Trust into hot water, after the UK's Information Commissioner's Office confirmed on Monday that the hospital had breached data law."
https://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy/2017/07/google-deepmind-nhs-deal-broke-uk-data-law/
0 -
And me. They are going to try to withdraw the stimulus gently (to avoid the "taper tantrum" we saw in 2015). But if they don't do it quickly enough when the next cyclical downturn comes they won't have any firepower left.AnneJGP said:
So your original gloomy scenario is because of what will happen when the music stops, so to speak? There has to be a payback time somewhere along the line and whatever the underlying cause, it's that which concerns me.Charles said:
Really they're just printing money, but if you call it something like "Quantitative Easing" or "QE" no one will notice.AnneJGP said:
So it really is a magic money tree?Charles said:
It's the Bank of England buying the government debt, not new investors...AnneJGP said:
I can well understand that people are "tired of austerity", but it worries me that we're dependent on other countries lending us money to live at the standard we believe is our right.Charles said:
I did warn you!rkrkrk said:
Well that's uplifting!Charles said:FPT
I try not to sweat the small stuff.rkrkrk said:
Do you share their assessment?
I feel gloomy about UK economy.
Rising inflation, mediocre growth, Brexit challenges and uncertainty, and rates as low as they can go and a potential rise looming...
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
Suppose the lenders pulled the plug?
Good evening, everyone.0 -
Meat is Murder!rkrkrk said:On topic... Ordering a steak medium well done or well done is just terrible. A crime against flavour and meat.
0 -
-
Yes. Some of my friends have that Alexa thing. Have we really got so lazy that we cannot turn a light manually? No wonder productivity is on a slide.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes it could and I have made it. And people are bugging their own homes with voice-activated assistants. But the government, or the Establishment if you like because both parties are at it, is on another scale.Beverley_C said:
The same argument could be made about Android phones, iPhones, hotmail and gmail. As for Facebook's Apps....DecrepitJohnL said:
Why do we bother paying MI5 to protect us from spies when the powers that be just hand over any data requested?JosiasJessop said:Wholly unsurprising:
"Google's DeepMind AI arm—which was given access to the personal medical records of 1.6 million NHS patients on an "inappropriate legal basis"—has thrown the Royal Free NHS Foundation Trust into hot water, after the UK's Information Commissioner's Office confirmed on Monday that the hospital had breached data law."
https://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy/2017/07/google-deepmind-nhs-deal-broke-uk-data-law/0 -
0
-
The plus side of that is massive job creation.AndyJS said:"Worst decade for UK productivity since Napoleon
Not since the times of George III, Napoleon and war with America has the UK suffered such a long period of low productivity."
http://news.sky.com/story/worst-decade-for-uk-productivity-since-napolean-10938330
If unemployment doubled, productivity would surge.0 -
@Sunil_Prasannan
(a. Has already been addressed - see my previous post
(b. So are public sector workers
(c. WTH does that have to do with the austerity debate?0 -
c'mon! This is a website where people discuss demographic weighting of polls in great detail Cooking is less boring to nearly all the great British public!RoyalBlue said:
Is there a worse kind of bore than one who cares how long other people like their steaks cooked?rkrkrk said:On topic... Ordering a steak medium well done or well done is just terrible. A crime against flavour and meat.
0 -
Yup. No straw unclutched ...Beverley_C said:
That is the first good piece of Brexit news I have seen in some time.Scott_P said:twitter.com/kadhimshubber/status/882629874397138945
0 -
I don't care how others do them. But a rare steak, or one that's briefly seared in a pan, is wonderful.RoyalBlue said:
Is there a worse kind of bore than one who cares how long other people like their steaks cooked?rkrkrk said:On topic... Ordering a steak medium well done or well done is just terrible. A crime against flavour and meat.
0 -
I'm in your corner. Food snobs. Wine snobs. Music snobs. All "my taste is better than your taste". Pshaw. To each his own.RoyalBlue said:
Is there a worse kind of bore than one who cares how long other people like their steaks cooked?rkrkrk said:On topic... Ordering a steak medium well done or well done is just terrible. A crime against flavour and meat.
0 -
Alexa? We should call it "Bev"Beverley_C said:
Yes. Some of my friends have that Alexa thing. Have we really got so lazy that we cannot turn a light manually? No wonder productivity is on a slide.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes it could and I have made it. And people are bugging their own homes with voice-activated assistants. But the government, or the Establishment if you like because both parties are at it, is on another scale.Beverley_C said:
The same argument could be made about Android phones, iPhones, hotmail and gmail. As for Facebook's Apps....DecrepitJohnL said:
Why do we bother paying MI5 to protect us from spies when the powers that be just hand over any data requested?JosiasJessop said:Wholly unsurprising:
"Google's DeepMind AI arm—which was given access to the personal medical records of 1.6 million NHS patients on an "inappropriate legal basis"—has thrown the Royal Free NHS Foundation Trust into hot water, after the UK's Information Commissioner's Office confirmed on Monday that the hospital had breached data law."
https://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy/2017/07/google-deepmind-nhs-deal-broke-uk-data-law/ 0 -
Surely late Georgian Britain was a time of great increases in productivity as the industrial revolution gathered speed?AndyJS said:"Worst decade for UK productivity since Napoleon
Not since the times of George III, Napoleon and war with America has the UK suffered such a long period of low productivity."
http://news.sky.com/story/worst-decade-for-uk-productivity-since-napolean-109383300 -
The DUP got a useful bung too, apparently, from one of those groups who also fund some Tories. Not to mention the special Arlene One RAF flight.Sunil_Prasannan said:
A) The money is for Northern Ireland, NOT the DUPThe_Apocalypse said:@Mortimer How does that counter the assertion that she has a billion quid to give to the DUP but no money for public sector workers? This looks bad for the Tories.
b) The Northern Irish are UK taxpayers
C) £1 billion over two years is a bargain compared to the £8.5 billion NET we give to Brussels each year0 -
Nick have you ever come across Muddy Fork before?NickPalmer said:
I'm in your corner. Food snobs. Wine snobs. Music snobs. All "my taste is better than your taste". Pshaw. To each his own.RoyalBlue said:
Is there a worse kind of bore than one who cares how long other people like their steaks cooked?rkrkrk said:On topic... Ordering a steak medium well done or well done is just terrible. A crime against flavour and meat.
North Nottinghamshire CIC using gardening to combat mental health issues. We're funding them to pilot a new push into GPs/teachers/prisoners but wanted to flag them up to you0 -
Plonk ?HYUFD said:
So that just leaves his latest travels, his latest bestseller, his latest romantic liaison with a young Corbynista, Primrose Hill house prices, sport, his latest restaurant critique.....Casino_Royale said:SeanT going a bit John Lennon over on Twitter.
Says he's totally done with politics, and talking about it.0 -
Stop farting !Sunil_Prasannan said:
Meat is Murder!rkrkrk said:On topic... Ordering a steak medium well done or well done is just terrible. A crime against flavour and meat.
0 -
Yes, that too. Plenty of topics are discussed here even if politics is the focussurbiton said:
Plonk ?HYUFD said:
So that just leaves his latest travels, his latest bestseller, his latest romantic liaison with a young Corbynista, Primrose Hill house prices, sport, his latest restaurant critique.....Casino_Royale said:SeanT going a bit John Lennon over on Twitter.
Says he's totally done with politics, and talking about it.0 -
Agreed. In terms of quarters, probably started 5 days ago.Beverley_C said:
It just convinces me further that the recession has started its early phases.AndyJS said:"Worst decade for UK productivity since Napoleon
Not since the times of George III, Napoleon and war with America has the UK suffered such a long period of low productivity."
http://news.sky.com/story/worst-decade-for-uk-productivity-since-napolean-109383300 -
Do you have a link to your website or details?Charles said:
Nick have you ever come across Muddy Fork before?NickPalmer said:
I'm in your corner. Food snobs. Wine snobs. Music snobs. All "my taste is better than your taste". Pshaw. To each his own.RoyalBlue said:
Is there a worse kind of bore than one who cares how long other people like their steaks cooked?rkrkrk said:On topic... Ordering a steak medium well done or well done is just terrible. A crime against flavour and meat.
North Nottinghamshire CIC using gardening to combat mental health issues. We're funding them to pilot a new push into GPs/teachers/prisoners but wanted to flag them up to you
0 -
*cough*Radiohead*cough*NickPalmer said:Music snobs.
0
