politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Do voters think Corbyn is read

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Habib Butt and Leo Barasi to discuss the latest polling news and analysis of the week.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/05/jeremy-corbyn-could-back-mandatory-reselection-labour-mps-amid/
"Many students boasted on social media of having voted twice in last month's general election, an MP has claimed.
Conservative Sir Henry Bellingham said there was "clear evidence" of students saying they voted at their home and university addresses.
"Surely this is straightforward electoral fraud," he said.
Cabinet Office Minister Chris Skidmore promised to raise the "completely unacceptable" allegation with the Electoral Commission."
With postal votes available on demand, surely there is no strong reason for allowing people to register in two different locations.
So should the Government now change the law so this is no longer allowed?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40509178
It wouldn't prevent fraud, but it would mean anyone who did it was extremely likely to be caught and prosecuted.
*All teachers my age have earned more than me for all but 3 years of the last 10.
But the reality is that the money given to the DUP is peanuts - it's not £1bn per year - most is over 2 years, some is over 5 years. I think it's £470m in Year 1.
In contrast I believe the deficit for 2016/17 came in £5bn below the forecast made at the Budget in March 2017 - ie just a few weeks before the end of the year.
However, as discussed many times on here, if you are having to explain the detail you've already lost the argument.
Paul Johnson wrote an article in The Times yesterday saying any Government can always find the money for any one particular thing - but what actually matters is that the Budget as a whole makes sense.
The issue is the entire western economy (but particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones) is an unreal fantasy propped up on cheap money.
At some point governments may try to end that & it's all going to go horribly wrong.
There's a humungous crash coming. I just don't know when
The controversy surrounding the public sector pay cap is more than that single question in PMQs - given that it was an issue during the GE campaign. This a wider issue related to people's growing sense of fatigue in regard to austerity, more than anything else. Remember TMay and that nurse on QT? Back then she looked as bad as the neoliberal posh boys you spent the election deriding. She told that nurse that there was no magic money tree - that was the justification she gave for keeping the public sector pay cap, not 'well we have more doctors and nurses now so....' Given that we don't have a magic money tree, many will ask the question how has May found one in order to give a billion quid to give to NI?
The whole thing is propped up on cheap money and QE.
2bn 6bn 10bn or 20 bn? I am guessing at 6-10 billion.
I billion for the majority was small change.
Says he's totally done with politics, and talking about it.
QE is like being in a plane that has never been flown before, with an unqualified pilot at the controls.
They've got it off the ground, and are flying it ok.
But landing the hardest part...and they don't even know where the airport is...
Suppose the lenders pulled the plug?
Good evening, everyone.
In turn this means mortgage rates of 7/8% depending on the fixed term.
However, the B of E will use capital controls to keep borrowing down rather than raising bank rate for the next few years until Brexit is out of the way. So expect Gilt prices and equity prices to stay high in the meantime because expectations for interest rates will remain low.
https://mobile.twitter.com/thomasknox/status/882648557718835201
(and all the men have to get a haircut identical to Comrade Corbyn Je-Remey)
Oh dear:
https://arstechnica.co.uk/gadgets/2017/07/china-elevated-bus-scam/
Despite this, it was a more sensible transport idea than the human-jam making Hyperloop.
Anyway, given that ISIS are now on their last legs thanks to the support the UK and others are giving to their opponents, who is it that should really be making apologies for that Syria vote?
"Google's DeepMind AI arm—which was given access to the personal medical records of 1.6 million NHS patients on an "inappropriate legal basis"—has thrown the Royal Free NHS Foundation Trust into hot water, after the UK's Information Commissioner's Office confirmed on Monday that the hospital had breached data law."
https://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy/2017/07/google-deepmind-nhs-deal-broke-uk-data-law/
"When the TEB turned a corner, every vehicle underneath had to wait for the manoeuvre to complete before going around the corner themselves. And no one had really worked out how to solve the issue of cars driving into the "legs" of the bus."
Can you imagine Elon Musk putting up with something like that?
The cap is 1%, while the CPI is currently at 2.9% and rising. A difference of 1.9%. The RPI (which the Government conveniently never mentions now) is even higher.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5V_VzRrSBI
Not since the times of George III, Napoleon and war with America has the UK suffered such a long period of low productivity."
http://news.sky.com/story/worst-decade-for-uk-productivity-since-napolean-10938330
b) The Northern Irish are UK taxpayers
C) £1 billion over two years is a bargain compared to the £8.5 billion NET we give to Brussels each year
of government bonds will significantly increase.
I wonder what will happen to asset prices generally
If unemployment doubled, productivity would surge.
(a. Has already been addressed - see my previous post
(b. So are public sector workers
(c. WTH does that have to do with the austerity debate?
North Nottinghamshire CIC using gardening to combat mental health issues. We're funding them to pilot a new push into GPs/teachers/prisoners but wanted to flag them up to you