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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this story is right then you should take the 4/1 on Mrs May ceasing to be PM in 2019
Good scoop. Terrible idea? https://t.co/GzIq9bfKJq
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It bears a certain unfortunate resemblance to the way in which Cameron screwed up the renegotiation and referendum, and immediately washed his hands of the mess and walked away, which will not be lost on the Tories opponents.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/02/cabinet-war-tax-calls-end-austerity-spark-row-extra-money-will/
While Labour appear to be equally confused and divided over policy, being in opposition gives you that luxury without paying quite the same penalty:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/02/labour-chaos-corbyn-campaign-chief-suggests-left-wing-mps-may/
Unless the party decides to split completely....
And there is a large void in the political centre, only marginally occupied by the LibDems.
As I said a couple of days back, British politics is a complete mess.
It's not as if the new Tory leader - who is likely in cabinet now - will be campaigning against the Brexit deal just agreed/the exit bill just paid... The Tories own this process.
For another - support for a deal may be higher just after its signed - especially if people worried about not getting one at all?
http://www.politico.eu/article/david-davis-to-engage-business-leaders-on-brexit/
Britain’s chief Brexit negotiator David Davis is set to reach out this week to British business leaders by hosting a day-long conference at his private country residence.
There is still a question over whether she can last that long, what ever her or her grandees' intentions.
Linking her departure to Brexit just adds to reasons why Brextit might take a lot longer than some eager leavers appear to think.
What does need to happen though is for a reasonably long contest to happen, as in 2005, rather than a coronation. This is more diffficult in government than opposition, but the Tories need to have their discussions in public over a few months then decide what they want to offer at the next election in 2020 or 2022.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/02/ukip-members-anne-marie-waters-anti-islam-far-right-fears
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-40432921
What do the Tories do now? One question, three solutions
Matthew d'Ancona
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/03/tories-dup-deal-thatcherites-philip-hammond-ruth-davidson?CMP=twt_gu
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jul/03/more-nurses-and-midwives-leaving-uk-profession-than-joining-figures-reveal
All very depressing Monday morning news.
NHS cant plan it's staff requirements shock
Lady on TV quoted Uni fees as one of the major reasons people are being put off
I bought 3 kilos over the course of the week
Will she survive to 2019? That is a different question. The absolute maelstrom that she endured immediately after the election seems to have dissipated somewhat but it will just take another cloth eared remark to stir it all up again. She has almost no natural supporters or friends in the party and is vulnerable.
In the meantime we have a largely hamstrung PM. This probably means relatively little activity in most of the departments other than Brexit. Not necessarily a bad thing of course but it will make it more difficult for those not involved in that process to make any kind of a mark or maintain a media profile.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e7/The_Devil_Wears_Prada_main_onesheet.jpg
whatever she does they will put a negative slant on it
I've forgotten who introduced this nonsense, no doubt you'll remind me.
They don't need support, just prune back to six inches from the ground each year, they have a long fruiting season, from now until the first frosts and have good flavour.
Ain't market forces wonderful?
On another note, I was talking to an acquaintance this weekend who said to expect far more sprinkler systems to be retrofitted to tall buildings. One organisation had the task priced up for several buildings last year, only for it not to go ahead because of the cost. They're now trying to get the work scheduled, as their insurers have informed them of a rather large hike in insurance premiums ...
Its not surprising that some others think the party just might turn to them in their hour of need. Jim Hacker is a great role model.
Not sure this is wise. May's authority is damaged, but if she announces she's going then all eyes will be on either becoming her successor or currying favour with her successor.
A private agreement rather than a public announcement would make more sense.
Its why an ever decreasing number of people are deciding not to pay to train as a nurse.
Its taken a while but you're beginning to understand how it works, and that the party you belong to introduced. Its a bizarre world where we look upon media studies students as important as young nurses.
PYO seems to have disappeared in the last 15 years. Where I live there used to be loads of them now you really have to go searching for them
Not my party.
ty
To become a nurse you need a degree, to get a degree you pay tuition fees. Ask my friend's daughter who went through this a few years back.
The lib dems treat media studies students the same as aspiring nurses then you come on here bleating about staff shortages in the NHS.
Theresa May does not have 100% support of her cabinet and will decide that the longer she stays the more damage will be done. Most senior Tories will be thinking the same and the sooner a new leader takes over, the more chance the Tories have of securing Brexit and winning the next election.
The current reporting makes it sound as though every panel has failed the original tests, and therefore should not have been installed and someone is to blame!. Whereas if the panels passed the original tests, the blame might partially belong with a very different set: those who specified those tests.
And sadly, in the process the truth is being lost.
There's also a question about whether these new tests are valid. After all, it appears they mucked up the definition of the original tests, so why should they be believed these new tests are representative of real-world conditions?
It's all a blooming mess.
NHS nurses and other allied professions were entitled to bursaries until this year:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jul/21/nhs-bursaries-for-student-nurses-will-end-in-2017-government-confirms
"Student nurses, midwives and allied health professionals, including occupational therapists, speech and language therapists, podiatrists and radiographers, currently do not pay tuition fees. They receive a mixture of a non-means-tested bursary, a means-tested bursary and a reduced-rate student loan to help with their living costs."
Simply not sustainable for a career that pays sub-£35k
That's interesting, thanks. Do you have a source for that?
Day 2 - rest of summer - never want to eat another berry again.....
On raspberries, I agree with SquareRoot (not something I often say) that they're nicer (not least as you don't have to fiddle with them like strawberries to avoid the nasty hard stem), but the price - £2 a punnet - has stayed the same for years in every supermnarket that I go to, and the punnets don't seem to be getting smaller. Seems fair enough - far less hassle than growing the things (sorry, Jeremy).
https://www.allerdale.gov.uk/downloads/bca_guidance_note_18_use_of_combustible_cladding_materials_on_residential_buildings.pdf
Now, the reason R/3 sold so well is that it made great promises for how it could change and improve organisations. And, by and large, those promises were true. When a firm had moved to SAP, things did work better.
But installing (implementing) SAP could be a complex logistical nightmare that destroyed the careers of anyone who touched it. Budgets were blown out, with firms often spending more than 10x the cost of the software on “experts” (consultants) who helped with the implementation. Plans to get software installed in a six months often proved laughably optimistic, with go live often delayed years.
It turned out that changing the entire software system on which your organisation run was a greater challenge that the SAP salespeople let on when they were showing you fancy Powerpoint slides.
Brexit is like installing R/3. It’s a complex process with many dependencies.
Later, when post-mortems were done on R/3 implementations, it turned out that (while all of them were late and over budget), there were clear common factors between those that worked and those that didn’t.
Failed implementations usually had no greater plan than “install SAP”, and usually had a big bang mentality “on the first of January, we will go live on SAP worldwide!”. Successful ones had a tight plan with limited scope: “first we implement SAP Accounts Receivable on our Belgian subsidiary, and run it for three months to understand all the issues”.
Proponents of SAP implementation as a series of baby-steps were rarely popular. Their proposals usually involved spending a lot more money, and taking a lot more time. But their proposals actually worked. The big bang guys crashed and burned. And the fallout from their crashes often resulted in profit warnings, CEO resignations, and the end of more than one company.
Politicians: take note.
Joking aside, it's an awful analogy. Brexit is not an never was analogous to a back-office migration. It was a bet the company shift to a whole new business model - one that had already been tried in the company's past and failed, but no-one was around anymore who understand how and why so the new management had to learn the same mistakes all over again.
We are already at that stage in the Conservative Party's crisis when all of the obvious current leadership options have been discounted and so thoughts turn to an (unnamed, perhaps non-existent) bright young thing who will suddenly appear in March 2019 and save the party and the country.
He or she might begin by saying that some optimism is needed after the long, hard slog of Brexit. He or she might say that for too long the Tories have been having a different conversation to the one ordinary voters have been having.
"Instead of talking about the things that most people care about, we talked about what we cared about most.
"While parents worried about childcare, getting the kids to school, balancing work and family life - we were banging on about Europe.
"As they worried about standards in thousands of secondary schools, we obsessed about a handful more grammar schools.
"As rising expectations demanded a better NHS for everyone, we put our faith in opt-outs for a few.
"While people wanted, more than anything, stability and low mortgage rates, the first thing we talked about was tax cuts."
What an electrifying intervention this would be, refreshing and new. Except not new.
It was first delivered by David Cameron on October 1, 2006 at the Conservative Party conference in Bournemouth. Almost every sentence now echoes down the years as a warning against exactly what Theresa May offered the country. What goes around comes around.
In fact, that seems more than reasonable given that some of these materials will be used many times in similar environments. But this would not pick up on where the materials have altered over time, or manufacturing defects.
I still like my idea of a client (e.g. council, HA) being able to take random samples during construction and send them in for testing.
I also wonder if there is a large gap in the study of fire safety in structures: you will have the fire brigade, who understand fire causes and propagation very well, but not necessarily structural engineering; and architects / surveyors who understand structural engineering very well but not fire propagation.
The only thing less credible is @Richard_H suggestion of Gove as #2 to Boris...
Less success with summer raspberries. This is the first year I have had a proper crop, but I don't think I have supported them properly and pigeons are landing on then and because they grow on brittle old wood the plants snap and I lose most of the fruit. The deer also cropped the new growth for next year!
Frustrating growing fruit.
The problem would be convincing the country that the rest of the Tory party meant it. Once bitten twice shy and all that.
Also worth noting that the NHBC guidance allows use of sub-A2 insulation boards with B-grade external cladding, without even a desktop study, on the basis that they had reviewed lots of data from other tests and desktop studies. This guidance has now been withdrawn - this was on Newsnight recently. It had said that the specific insulation material at Grenfell (Celotex RS 5000) could be used with B-grade cladding, yet the manufacturer says it was only tested for use with A2 cladding.
The bottom line is that the intent of the regulations has been diluted by an inspection regime that has taken the job away from local authorities and allowed contractors to hire their own "approved inspectors", so there is no single body or arm of government upholding standards, and because sector bodies like the BCA and NHBC have issued guidance interpreting (and effectively watering down and/or introducing loopholes into) the regulations.
What happened?
The problem would be convincing the country that the rest of the Tory party meant it. Once bitten twice shy and all that.
Even more bizarrely, May was one of the very first to openly tell her party it needed to change. Way before Cameron.
What happened?
The pound shop Gordon Brown and her staff believed their own hype and concluded that the Tories made so many net gains in 2010 and 2015 in spite of Cameron not because of Cameron.
Ths fucking twats.
What happened?
The pound shop Gordon Brown and her staff believed their own hype and concluded that the Tories made so many net gains in 2010 and 2015 in spite of Cameron not because of Cameron.
Ths fucking twats.
But, she was already banging on about grammar schools months before the clusterf*** that was the campaign. She told Osborne to go out and discover his own party - the implication being that most members didn't believe in a word of what Cam/Os were on about and wanted a return to banging on about grammar schools, the birch, fox hunting, tax cuts at the expense of the disabled etc etc.